This coming Monday is the last date on which an election can be called for this year, specifically for the December 11 date spruiked recently by Anthony Albanese, which few if any still expect. The parlour game thus seems likely to move on now to the alternative scenarios of March and May. A complication in the former case is a South Australian state election set in the normal course of events for the third Saturday in March, i.e. March 19. If I understand the situation correctly, the South Australian government will have the discretion to delay the election by up to three weeks if a federal election is called before February 19 for a date in March.
Here’s what we do know:
• Max Maddison of The Australian reports grumbling within the New South Wales Liberal Party over its failure to have finalised candidates in the important seats of Dobell, Warringah and Gilmore. The report cites Liberal sources, no doubt with an interest in the matter, accusing Alex Hawke of using his clout on state executive to delay proceedings to the advantage of candidates of his centre right faction. “Other senior Liberal sources” contend the problem is “a lack of quality candidates and impending local government elections”. Prospective nominees for Dobell include former test cricketer Nathan Bracken, along with Michael Feneley, a cardiologist who has twice run unsuccessfully in Kingsford Smith, and Jemima Gleeson, owner of a chain of coffee shops.
• Further on Gilmore, the ever-readable Niki Savva reported in her Age/Herald column a fortnight ago that “speculation is rife” that Andrew Constance will not in fact proceed with his bid for preselection, just as he withdrew from contention Eden-Monaro ahead of last year’s by-election. If so, that would seemingly leave the path clear for Shoalhaven Heads lawyer Paul Ell, who is reckoned a formidable opponent to Constance in any case.
• Labor has not been breaking its back to get candidates in place in New South Wales either, with still no sign of progress in the crucial western Sydney fringe seat of Lindsay. However, candidates have recently been confirmed in two Liberal marginals: Zhi Soon, an education policy adviser and former diplomat, in Banks, and Sally Sitou, a University of Sydney doctoral candidate and one-time ministerial staffer, in Reid.
• In Victoria, Labor’s candidate in La Trobe will be Abhimanyu Kumar, owner of a local home building company.
• In an article by Jason Campbell of the Herald Sun, JWS Research says rising poll numbers for Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party are being driven by “skilled labourers and lower-end middle-management”, supplementing an existing support base that had largely been limited to people over 65. Maleness and low education remain common threads.
• An article on the voter identification laws by Graeme Orr of the University of Queensland in The Conversation makes a point I had not previously heard noted: that those who lodge a declaration vote in lieu of providing identification will have no way of knowing if their vote was ultimately admitted to the count. This stands in contrast to some American states, where those who cast the equivalent of postal or absent votes can track their progress online.
New South Wales by-election latest:
• It is now clear that the by-elections will not be held simultaneously with the December 4 local government elections as initially anticipated. The Guardian reports that the state’s electoral commissioner, John Schmidt, told a parliamentary committee hearing yesterday that “it wouldn’t be possible or sensible to try and aim earlier than the middle of February”, in part because the government’s “piecemeal funding” of his agency had left it with inadequate cybersecurity standards.
• Labor has announced it will field a candidate in Bega, making it the only one of the five looming by-elections in which the Coalition and Labor are both confirmed starters. James O’Doherty of the Daily Telegraph (who I hope got paid extra for pointing out that “Labor has chosen to contest the seat despite Leader Chris Minns last month criticising the looming by-election as expensive and unnecessary”) reports nominees for Liberal preselection will include Eurobodalla Shire mayor Liz Innes and, possibly, Bega Valley Shire councillor Mitchell Nadin.
• Anton Rose of Inner West Courier reports Liberal hopes in Jodi McKay’s seat of Strathfield are not high, particularly if Burwood mayor John Faker emerges as the Labor candidate, and that the party would “not be mounting a vigorous campaign”. One prospective Liberal nominee is said to be Natalie Baini, a sports administrator who was said earlier in the year to planning a preselection against Fiona Martin in the federal seat of Reid.
Poll news:
• A Redbridge Group poll conducted for Simon Holmes a Court’s Climate 200 non-profit group records Treasurer Josh Frydenberg’s primary vote as having slumped from 49.4% in his blue-ribbon Melbourne seat of Kooyong to 38%. With the Greens on 15%, well short of the heights achieved with Julian Burnside as candidate in 2019, such a result would put Frydenberg under pressure from Labor on 31%. Around half of the balance is attributed to the United Australia Party, which seems doubtful in an electorate such as Kooyong. The objective of the poll was to test the waters for a Zali Steggall-like independent challenge, and responses to some rather leading questions indicated that such a candidate would indeed be competitive or better. The survey was conducted from October 16 to 18 by automated phone polling from a sample of 1017.
• Liberal-aligned think tank the Blueprint Institute has results from a YouGov poll on attitudes towards carbon emissions policy, conducted in nine regional electorates from September 28 to October 12 with samples of around 415 each. In spite of everything, these show large majorities in favour of both halving emissions by 2030 and net zero by 2050 even in such electorates as Hunter and Capricornia. Even among coal workers (sub-sample size unclear), the results are 63% and 64% respectively.
• The Australia Institute has published its annual Climate of the Nation survey, based on a poll of 2626 respondents conducted by YouGov in August.
• It took me a while to update BludgerTrack with last week’s Resolve Strategic and Roy Morgan results, but now that it’s done, I can exclusively reveal that they made very little difference. Labor is currently credited with a two-party lead of 53.8-46.2.
Also:
• Antony Green has published his analysis of the finalised Victorian state redistribution.
Poor Cameron says:
Monday, November 8, 2021 at 3:32 pm
My slogan would be:
“The Liberal Party and Debt! Good Luck!”
…except the “debt” is not a problem at all….
Labor would do very well to stay away from debt polemics.
Dandy
If the energy is free then hydrogen is still a bitch to ship snd synthetic liquid fuels outperform ammonia.
Of course, by 2025 we’ll have nuclear fusion, then all we need to do is scale down the reactors to fit on vehicles, and all our problems will be solved!
ScoMo will be hailed as a prophet.
😛
(I guess, technically, a fusion vehicle will most likely be a hydrogen powered one)
Greensborough Growler @ #1596 Monday, November 8th, 2021 – 3:51 pm
Why does it annoy you so much that other people don’t accept your beliefs?
DusplayName
Transporting energy thousands of kilometers over HVDC cables is heaps more efficient than trying to send the same energy with hydrogen.
A new description of evil:
WA Police have charged a nurse with fraudulently recording that a teenager had been given a COVID-19 vaccine when the jab was allegedly never administered.
They said a person known to the nurse attended the clinic yesterday with their teenage child for a COVID-19 vaccine.
“It will be alleged the nurse inserted the needle into the teenager’s arm, but failed to administer the vaccine,” police said in a statement.
“It will be further alleged the syringe, with vaccine liquid still inside, was disposed of.
“A false entry was made on the medical records system indicating the teenager had received the dose of the vaccine.”
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-11-08/nurse-who-allegedly-faked-covid-vaccines-charged/100602566
“ There’s also carbon neutral synthetic avgas”
Yes, i recall you mentioning that piece of unobtanium before. i think ammonia might be win out in the end though.
https://www.dw.com/en/sustainable-aviation-fuel-power-to-liquid/a-59398405
Okay so we have the first Morrison election line:
‘Mine Workers jobs are safe with the Coalition’.
Transport dude back 100 years and he would have said: Chimney Sweeps jobs are safe with the Coalition.
Greensborough Growler @ #1596 Monday, November 8th, 2021 – 3:51 pm
Probably badly. 😐
Vote for the Coalition if you want the world to never change around you. As the world dies all around you.
Singing Bloos @ #1601 Monday, November 8th, 2021 – 3:59 pm
‘…except the “debt” is not a problem at all….’ yes we know.
The average voter thinks it is.
That’s all that matters.
The Liberals will give Debt polemics a run once Labor’s back in government.
Until then, what debt?
Starting to look like the abduction of Cleo Smith was perhaps part of a larger tragedy…
Very sad indeed. Kelly may have just wanted to see someone play with his doll collection for real.
CC
It’s probably strategically unsound for countries (like Taiwan, Japan and South Korea, say) to rely on undersea cables as the only option to import renewable energy. You could say the same for hydrogen transported by vehicle. They’ll likely want a mix of options.
C@tmomma @ #1607 Monday, November 8th, 2021 – 4:12 pm
Albanese should be encouraged that Morrison is still fighting the 2019 election and seemingly exposing an empty policy locker.
Albanese should focus on the 2022 election which is all about political integrity.
In point of fact, Maher held up Greta Thunberg and Kylie Jenner (I think it was) as polar opposites, and argued it was the latter who was truly representative of the young generation. The piece was anti-zoomer, but it wasn’t anti-Thunberg.
“ Very sad indeed. Kelly may have just wanted to see someone play with his doll collection for real.”
Well obviously, as Steely has explained – in detail over they weekend – someone who clearly needs to be shackled in chains.
Rex Douglas @ #1614 Monday, November 8th, 2021 – 4:21 pm
Yes. He should parrot Morrison’s words, and say, ‘Mine Workers jobs are safe with Labor, in the high tech fields of the future.’ 🙂
“They’ll likely want a mix of options.”
Farking Jesus, a portfolio solution!? That’s considered apostasy in some parts.
Commentator on ABC today saying that there is no compulsion to obey the National Plan. It is not law. Scotty saying that the NP is a scientific imperative is just bluster.
“Scientific imperative” ?
That’s unscientific gobbledygook.
Maybe it’s a political, economic, or social imperative? Biological? 😛
Uh huh.
Dr Josie McSkimming
@JosieMcskimming
·
Next time someone says, ‘oh but I don’t like
@AlboMP
he’s a good person but he hasn’t got enough junkyard dog in him’, ask if they prefer a lying, rorting, misogynistic, deceitful, failed marketing man?
The choice is so very clear these days.
All days in fact.
#AlboForPM
”
Greensborough Growlersays:
Monday, November 8, 2021 at 3:32 pm
Ven,
Why do you say that?
”
They want action but somebody has to bear the cost.
For example, Australians do not mind Nuclear power and want it to replace Coal fired power stations but they don’t want it to be built in their backyard.
It is like going to Movies and Bars and always expect others to pickup the tab.
But the beauty/tragedy/egalitarianism of Climate change is that everyone will pickup the tab one way or another. Unfortunately, It is already happening.
Funny (not really) that Scotty believes scientists when they support his purposes, but not otherwise.
I look forward to hearing what mental health assessment is undertaken on Mr Kelly before his December court appearance.
BB. Stories such as the Kelly of Carnarvon one are surprisingly common I find. Many years ago in another career stage I was on a light surveillance duty with another guy not far from the bustle of Kings Cross. Nothing much of interest was happening as we sat on a park bench and chatted and waited when a guy of probable Vietnamese origins came up to collect our empty cans (pre emptied as a precaution by our boss). We engaged him in conversation, difficult at first but eventually a bit more readily. He claimed later that he had not had conversation with a friend or family member for several years and had many things he wanted to get off his chest. And he did as our wait dragged on and on.
Subsequent experiences with volunteer work have shown me that it is common with people with mental illnesses to not have had contact with family or friends for many years at a time, they call in asking for help as an excuse for just having a conversation with somebody, anybody.It would be interesting to see which came first, the isolation or the mental illness.
Andrew_Earlwoodsays:
Monday, November 8, 2021 at 4:22 pm
“ Very sad indeed. Kelly may have just wanted to see someone play with his doll collection for real.”
Well obviously, as Steely has explained – in detail over they weekend – someone who clearly needs to be shackled in chains.
I know nothing about the man at all. You go straight for the lie as all good shysters do.
Cud Chewer says:
Monday, November 8, 2021 at 3:59 pm
“There’s also carbon neutral synthetic avgas. You don’t have to change a thing on the plane”
Except the ticket prices – up.
Likely that Kelly will have plenty of opportunity for conversation in his new gated community.
Still, the chains and shackles was totally OTT.
Ven,
That may well be the case. However, the hectoring and abusive approach of attempting to implement the appropriate change is simply not working. Nor, is it ever going to work in a segmented and diverse political market such as Australia. All that does is encourage people to take the easy option of doing what they perceive as in their personal best interests at the time of the Election.
A lot of change can be implemented from Government. The key is to get elected.
I believe that Governments should treat the Environment and Climate Change as just another policy area. Voters expect Governments to be able to cover the full spectrum of issues. The Greens and P1 want to focus on CC to the exclusion of anything else. That is folly.
My comment was about prisoners who self harm.
Then people who no nothing seem to think he should have been given a sedation shot, for that you need a Dr a full medical with all his history collated before you can pump someone with diazepam.
bakunin @ #1527 Monday, November 8th, 2021 – 2:31 pm
I agree 100%. I definitely lost the argument. (What argument?)
But nasty nathty outed himself as a bogan, and that was just delicious.
I should of never dun that.
Cud Chewer says:
Monday, November 8, 2021 at 4:00 pm
The energy is never free and rarely cheaper.
It was OTT because he was black if he was a white bikie you mob would have said nothing.
It is starting to look like he was just a very sad messed up person but please just for a little bit think how the parents and you girl felt for all those days.
Steely bleating this afternoon:
“ I know nothing about the man at all. You go straight for the lie as all good shysters do.”
Steely opining at 8:50am last Saturday:
“ The more a person has tried to self harm the more they must be constrained, little to do with escaping. Tried to self harm twice so far. Victim abducted from parents at night, 18 days of horror for parents and child. But what about the poor offender in chains…look racism I am horrified.”
Hey Bullshitman, we ain’t ‘locked down’ over here. But then being PM for Sydney you probably haven’t noticed . Speaking of “damage to the economy” . How many $100 billion has your covid slackarsery cost us when it comes to the lack of dedicated quarantine facilities, the waaay behind schedule of vaccinations and of course ,the piggies delight trough that was
JobRortkeeper ?Imagine the lies Earlwood and others would spin if you did not keep an eye on them.
Greensborough Growler @ #1630 Monday, November 8th, 2021 – 4:54 pm
Not true – but even if it were, which is the greater folly: to draw attention to an existential problem, or to pretend it doesn’t exist and pray that someone else will sort it out for you?
Steely doubling down with the excuses – the ‘commonsense’ 2GB explanations as to why it was obviously necessary to shackle Kelly in chains at 10:36am last Saturday:
“ Please tell me when you have ever I mean ever seen a violent criminal walking with Police Officers never because it never happens. Just one… some underworld figure or a violent murderer, nah I thought not. Cells to car, car to cells only. You don’t allow the truth to get in the way of making a point though.”
Lies you say. Keep digging.
https://www.pollbludger.net/2021/11/05/save-the-date/comment-page-33/#comment-3742200
Pretty sure I saw somewhere that public health system readiness, and some high risk groups still low on vax, were considerations for WA.
Except for pollyTICs, may be Spinocchio was just flying the cause of renationalised Qantas Group, since presumably all that corporate welfare got equity, doubt they covered that in economic geo and their long haul from WA (rather than through NT)?
#SFM never on your side, always on theirs
The PM is wrong to say that keeping WA borders tightly controlled is costing WA or the Nation without providing modelling. At the same time the WA Government only releases modelling of expected deaths and no economic modelling of continuing the current border controls.
I’m biased towards opening up but acknowledge I’m less risk averse than others on the issue.
Earlwood you said this after others stated that he looks to be just a poor sad soul.
Well obviously, as Steely has explained – in detail over they weekend – someone who clearly needs to be shackled in chains.
You are a tricky bastard, slippery lies.
That’s the growing sentiment re Morrison.
A E
synthetic avgas is what you get from well known industrial chemistry that has been around for the better part of a centiry.
Edit:
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-06732-3
And you can even get the raw material from garbage/landfill.
P1,
Is your conscience troubling you because you seem to have trouble dealing with different opinions and different approaches to solving problems?
Are you concerned that your perpetual CC hysteria does not resonate with the broader community?
Worrying times for extremists such as yourself when your scare campaigns scare no one.
Does the honourable member for steam driven dildos claim to be misrepresented?
Please explain: what lies have I told? How have I misrepresented you? Or quoted your out of context. Your ruminations – which I used for my comment this afternoon can all be found at pages 10 to 11 of this thread:
… and go!
Did Morrison today:
. verbal scientists
. misrepresent what is happening WA right now
. misrepresent the National Plan?
Or, for once in his miserable prime ministership, did he go the whole hog and say something that vaguely approximated what is really happening in WA?
Bucephalus says:
Monday, November 8, 2021 at 5:11 pm
The PM is wrong…’
———————–
Good point. As the litany of lies exposed in that Crikey article demonstrate beyond a skerrick of a doubt it goes well beyond being wrong. It goes to a pattern of saying things that are just not true.
Buce:
“The energy is never free and rarely cheaper”
Well there we go, just today in the NSW spot market, several periods close-to-zero and negative prices:
https://aemo.com.au/Energy-systems/Electricity/National-Electricity-Market-NEM/Data-NEM/Data-Dashboard-NEM
Same in Victoria, and Qld, although the latter also had a massive price spike alongside the negative prices at certain times.
I.e. spot market doing what it should do, ripe for flexible loads like H2 and NH3 production.
Boerwar
He’s plays silly word games. Note he said “lock downs’. I’m sure they would cause more harm, financially,than good, when vaccination levels reach certain points. However we are not locked down , Gina the Hutt, Twiggy, BHP and all the other mineral/mining elves in WA are doing fine. the only pouty faces are on the likes Alan Joyce.