This coming Monday is the last date on which an election can be called for this year, specifically for the December 11 date spruiked recently by Anthony Albanese, which few if any still expect. The parlour game thus seems likely to move on now to the alternative scenarios of March and May. A complication in the former case is a South Australian state election set in the normal course of events for the third Saturday in March, i.e. March 19. If I understand the situation correctly, the South Australian government will have the discretion to delay the election by up to three weeks if a federal election is called before February 19 for a date in March.
Here’s what we do know:
• Max Maddison of The Australian reports grumbling within the New South Wales Liberal Party over its failure to have finalised candidates in the important seats of Dobell, Warringah and Gilmore. The report cites Liberal sources, no doubt with an interest in the matter, accusing Alex Hawke of using his clout on state executive to delay proceedings to the advantage of candidates of his centre right faction. “Other senior Liberal sources” contend the problem is “a lack of quality candidates and impending local government elections”. Prospective nominees for Dobell include former test cricketer Nathan Bracken, along with Michael Feneley, a cardiologist who has twice run unsuccessfully in Kingsford Smith, and Jemima Gleeson, owner of a chain of coffee shops.
• Further on Gilmore, the ever-readable Niki Savva reported in her Age/Herald column a fortnight ago that “speculation is rife” that Andrew Constance will not in fact proceed with his bid for preselection, just as he withdrew from contention Eden-Monaro ahead of last year’s by-election. If so, that would seemingly leave the path clear for Shoalhaven Heads lawyer Paul Ell, who is reckoned a formidable opponent to Constance in any case.
• Labor has not been breaking its back to get candidates in place in New South Wales either, with still no sign of progress in the crucial western Sydney fringe seat of Lindsay. However, candidates have recently been confirmed in two Liberal marginals: Zhi Soon, an education policy adviser and former diplomat, in Banks, and Sally Sitou, a University of Sydney doctoral candidate and one-time ministerial staffer, in Reid.
• In Victoria, Labor’s candidate in La Trobe will be Abhimanyu Kumar, owner of a local home building company.
• In an article by Jason Campbell of the Herald Sun, JWS Research says rising poll numbers for Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party are being driven by “skilled labourers and lower-end middle-management”, supplementing an existing support base that had largely been limited to people over 65. Maleness and low education remain common threads.
• An article on the voter identification laws by Graeme Orr of the University of Queensland in The Conversation makes a point I had not previously heard noted: that those who lodge a declaration vote in lieu of providing identification will have no way of knowing if their vote was ultimately admitted to the count. This stands in contrast to some American states, where those who cast the equivalent of postal or absent votes can track their progress online.
New South Wales by-election latest:
• It is now clear that the by-elections will not be held simultaneously with the December 4 local government elections as initially anticipated. The Guardian reports that the state’s electoral commissioner, John Schmidt, told a parliamentary committee hearing yesterday that “it wouldn’t be possible or sensible to try and aim earlier than the middle of February”, in part because the government’s “piecemeal funding” of his agency had left it with inadequate cybersecurity standards.
• Labor has announced it will field a candidate in Bega, making it the only one of the five looming by-elections in which the Coalition and Labor are both confirmed starters. James O’Doherty of the Daily Telegraph (who I hope got paid extra for pointing out that “Labor has chosen to contest the seat despite Leader Chris Minns last month criticising the looming by-election as expensive and unnecessary”) reports nominees for Liberal preselection will include Eurobodalla Shire mayor Liz Innes and, possibly, Bega Valley Shire councillor Mitchell Nadin.
• Anton Rose of Inner West Courier reports Liberal hopes in Jodi McKay’s seat of Strathfield are not high, particularly if Burwood mayor John Faker emerges as the Labor candidate, and that the party would “not be mounting a vigorous campaign”. One prospective Liberal nominee is said to be Natalie Baini, a sports administrator who was said earlier in the year to planning a preselection against Fiona Martin in the federal seat of Reid.
Poll news:
• A Redbridge Group poll conducted for Simon Holmes a Court’s Climate 200 non-profit group records Treasurer Josh Frydenberg’s primary vote as having slumped from 49.4% in his blue-ribbon Melbourne seat of Kooyong to 38%. With the Greens on 15%, well short of the heights achieved with Julian Burnside as candidate in 2019, such a result would put Frydenberg under pressure from Labor on 31%. Around half of the balance is attributed to the United Australia Party, which seems doubtful in an electorate such as Kooyong. The objective of the poll was to test the waters for a Zali Steggall-like independent challenge, and responses to some rather leading questions indicated that such a candidate would indeed be competitive or better. The survey was conducted from October 16 to 18 by automated phone polling from a sample of 1017.
• Liberal-aligned think tank the Blueprint Institute has results from a YouGov poll on attitudes towards carbon emissions policy, conducted in nine regional electorates from September 28 to October 12 with samples of around 415 each. In spite of everything, these show large majorities in favour of both halving emissions by 2030 and net zero by 2050 even in such electorates as Hunter and Capricornia. Even among coal workers (sub-sample size unclear), the results are 63% and 64% respectively.
• The Australia Institute has published its annual Climate of the Nation survey, based on a poll of 2626 respondents conducted by YouGov in August.
• It took me a while to update BludgerTrack with last week’s Resolve Strategic and Roy Morgan results, but now that it’s done, I can exclusively reveal that they made very little difference. Labor is currently credited with a two-party lead of 53.8-46.2.
Also:
• Antony Green has published his analysis of the finalised Victorian state redistribution.
William Bowe @ #1389 Monday, November 8th, 2021 – 6:47 pm
It’s derived from the name of a Japanese strap on.
Quite legit.
mundo @ #1390 Monday, November 8th, 2021 – 6:53 pm
Steely Dan, that is
P1,
I’m backing you as the blithe disregarder of any one else. You’ve got years of track record on PB and I suspect outside the PB diaspora of being incapable of actually achieving any progress on the issue you tell us you hold so dear.
I expect that to continue.
So sad for you.
Nicko @ #1368 Monday, November 8th, 2021 – 6:09 pm
Labor could push back against this sort of stuff instead of just letting it thruogh to the keeper. The keeper in the sense meaning the voter.
Kakuru,
Sukkar is edging towards embattled.
Lizzie @ #1677 Monday, November 8th, 2021 – 6:08 pm
Labor has given up hope. The Climate 200 independents, and various other independents who will be standing in the next election have not. This is precisely why you should vote for them.
Vote for policies, not parties.
L’arse the liberal botfly: his new role – hall monitor of the blog.
Remind us all: what is the point of you?
Greensborough Growler @ #1703 Monday, November 8th, 2021 – 6:55 pm
And I am backing you as a sanctimonious twit desperately holding on to arcane and unscientific beliefs because they are terrified of the thought that they might be wrong.
I feel sorry for you.
P1,
Again you demonstrate you can’t handle alternative opinions.
Single issue independents rarely achieve electoral success in Australia What makes you think it will be different this time?
I suppose you are entitled to your fantasies. But, Independents as the answer means there is a bloody stupid question being asked.
If climate matters to you,
and you vote for a pro climate action independent then make sure you put Labor ahead of the LNP otherwise if we get another LNP government then we will have zero chance of climate action.
I guess if my moniker was Richard Cranium I’d expect to be referred to as dickhead.
Player One @ #1706 Monday, November 8th, 2021 – 6:58 pm
The state Govts and business community are stepping up to save us where the multi party federal parliamentary fossil fuel cartel has so failed us. The cartel is quickly becoming redundant.
What if it was Hall & Oates or The Doobie Brothers?
Nicko says:
Monday, November 8, 2021 at 7:07 pm
If climate matters to you,
and you vote for a pro climate action independent then make sure you put Labor ahead of the LNP otherwise if we get another LNP government then we will have zero chance of climate action.
________________________________
I doubt either member of the 2 party duopoly will make much of a difference. I doubt the ALP will be spruiking its climate change credentials in Hunter for example – with their coal miner candidate in tow.
Somyurek raising some interesting aspects of Victorian political history today:
Conroy’s rise to powerbroker
During the near-two-decade peace deal in the southeast, Mr Somyurek said Mr Conroy focused his power grab in the city’s west and Geelong, where the latter became a “major hotspot” in the 2000s.
“Richard Marles and John Eren, Tayfun Eren’s brother (who was) another notorious branch stacker, and, again, these two are Stephen Conroy’s friends,” Mr Somyurek told the hearing.
“Conroy’s business model was to send people into different areas, induce them with seats if they had branch stacked the lot and, in the meantime, what will happen is his empire will grow as these ambitious people branch stack to get into parliament.
“The scheme was Marles and Eren go to Geelong, take over Geelong, which they did from the Left to move out the sitting MPs.
“John Eren got himself a seat, Richard Marles got himself a seat, and Lisa Neville got herself a seat; Richard Marles’ former partner.
“They got delegates and those delegates were then (handed) to Stephen Conroy and he built an empire — that was the business model.”
https://www.news.com.au/national/victoria/news/ibac-adem-somyurek-accuses-daniel-andrews-bill-shorten-stephen-conroy-and-richard-marles-of-branch-stacking/news-story/f67729fdf8228d461187c2ce94a81eeb
mikehilliard at 7:09 pm
Just count your blessings you did not have this guy’s parents.
.
.
Professor Richard Head – People at UniSA
https://people.unisa.edu.au/richard.head
Greensborough Growler @ #1709 Monday, November 8th, 2021 – 7:06 pm
The difference between you and me is that I still think people can make a difference.
You, on the other hand, are afraid that they can.
ABC news boots off with Eddie Obeid then moves onto Sukkar.
Balance always.
mikehilliard says:
Monday, November 8, 2021 at 7:09 pm
I guess if my moniker was Richard Cranium I’d expect to be referred to as dickhead.
_________
That’s funny – sadly poor old Andrew only does abuse.
WB,
What if you were a racehorse called Hoof Hearted?
One of the two contenders to lead the US Federal Reserve is called Lael Brainard.
A friend of mine has won the Backyard Birds category of the Birdlife Photography Awards. So happy for him.
https://www.birdlifephotoaward.org.au/gallery-winners-2021
Lars,
Labor was the last government to do anything on climate change with independents.
Where as the LNP with independents have done zero fucks all.
P1,
What? Making a difference like you? Someone who has zero influence and achieves absolutely nothing despite all the fire and brimstone rhetoric.
We laugh and we laugh and we laugh!
Spare me your drivel.
P1
I wasn’t being party political. I don’t believe that the world can work together to avert climate disaster. They are all too self obsessed.
Will
Go the doobie.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DkytJLoxGmQ
Nicko, see attached
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/sep/13/labor-mp-joel-fitzgibbon-to-quit-politics-taking-parting-swipe-at-idealist-progressives
Seems to suggest the fix is in on climate change.
Lars Von Trier says:
Monday, November 8, 2021 at 7:25 pm
Nicko, see attached
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/sep/13/labor-mp-joel-fitzgibbon-to-quit-politics-taking-parting-swipe-at-idealist-progressives
Seems to suggest the fix is in on climate change.
________________
OC had some great anecdotes on the Fitzgibbons.
Scotty committed to 35% cut in emissions by 2030 at Glasgow and net zero by 2050, and his own document says that 69% of the grid will be renewables.
Now he should explain how he is going to do that to the Hunter region, or is he going to let the local candidate basically tear up his promises. Why would anyone want to believe Scomo on any of this shit anymore.
Confessions @ #1723 Monday, November 8th, 2021 – 7:17 pm
Congrats! 😀
Has Lars von Liberal commented about Michael Sukkar’s branch stacking on the public purse yet? Or is it *crickets*?
Nicko says:
Monday, November 8, 2021 at 7:28 pm
Scotty committed to 35% cut in emissions by 2030 at Glasgow and net zero by 2050, and his own document says that 69% of the grid will be renewables.
Now he should explain how he is going to do that to the Hunter region, or is he going to let the local candidate basically tear up his promises. Why would anyone want to believe Scomo on any of this shit anymore.
_____________________
True that – its just Labor will do exactly the same but with the twist of pretending they are for real action with some audiences.
Remember Labor was against Adani in Victoria and for it in Queensland.
Kakuru @ #1699 Monday, November 8th, 2021 – 6:41 pm
😆 😆 😆
LArs,
When the rest of the world doesn’t want our coal anymore, will Scomo cough up a coal keeper plan for the hunter?
Nicko, BHP and Rio are selling out of coal, so that should tell you something.
C@t:
He only started taking photography seriously last year. He’s come a long way in such a short time.
Hanging out for 8pm and Yellowstone S4.
Greensborough Growler @ #1724 Monday, November 8th, 2021 – 7:21 pm
I don’t blow my own trumpet here much, but I can guarantee you I make more difference than most here do. Certainly, a lot more than you do.
I laugh and I laugh and I laugh!
Then I get sad, because it is people like you that are the real enemy – people who don’t care for others at all.
Lars,
Well that doesn’t answer me anything, but we already know the answer, the LNP won’t give a shit about coal workers when the time comes.
Nicko
“ Labor was the last government to do anything on climate change with independents.
Where as the LNP with independents have done zero fucks all.”
Indeed, the LNP, after dismantling all Labor’s climate actions, including the CPRS and the RET, did not even see fit to let independent Zali Steggal’s private member’s bill on climate change even allowed to be tabled in parliament.
Any suggestion that Labor and the LNP are the same on climate is an easily disproven lie, aimed at low information voters.
For those who dislike Leigh Sayles because she’s a biased Liberal shill, this is a pretty good “Back at you”.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1457626659759136771
Nicko – I feel sorry for anybody relying on Labor or Liberal promises. Its really same same but different.
For every Sukkar case there is a Somyurek case after all.
There is a reason coal miners in the Hunter are voting One Nation – they’ve worked out Labor will sell them out in a heartbeat. Hopefully we don’t see scenes of coal miners celebrating ScoMo – it could well happen depending upon the policy Turtle Bowen comes out with though.
south @ #1561 Monday, November 8th, 2021 – 3:21 pm
NH3 = ammonia
Socrates says:
Monday, November 8, 2021 at 7:38 pm
____________________________
Tell us more about your role in blockading Nicolle Flint’s office?
P1,
You can believe any fantasy you like.
“ I guess if my moniker was Richard Cranium I’d expect to be referred to as dickhead.”
True story: when I started as John Murray’s Chief of Staff, after the election of the Carr Labor Government, Murray introduced me to one of his old mucker mates in the Trog sub faction: NSW Gaming Minister Richard Face. As soon as Murray did the introductions, the Minster said, ‘call me Dick’. Without any hint that he comprehended the obvious …
Of course, my favourite name is Misty Hymen … the Team USA 200M Butterfly swimmer that beat Susie O’Neill at the Sydney Olympics. I still occasionally check the news feeds to see whether she ever got around to killing her parents. …
Ps. WB – I’ve had my sport with poor old Steely. My variation on his name alla The Naked Lunch is getting stale, I confess. I’ll desist in future.
Andrew_Earlwood says:
Monday, November 8, 2021 at 7:45 pm
_________________________
Have you ever wondered about the impression you make on people when they first meet you?
“ Have you ever wondered about the impression you make on people when they first meet you?”
Nope. There is rarely little doubt as to the outcomes of that experience. Its amazing how much time can be saved if one cuts out the fake bonhomie, smarmy insincerity and the general kiss up, kick down routine that you specialise in. How is that working out for you, by the way?
Lars
“Tell us more about your role in blockading Nicolle Flint’s office?”
I never had one, was never present there, and never said I had one. In my life I have only ever taken part in peaceful protests.
That being said, I know people who were there, saw some of the photos they took to prove what they did/did not do, and regard most of Flint’s claims as pure fiction. I note the police took zero action against the groups involved. The only actual offense was by an unrelated (and unwell) individual who was not a member of either group.
Good evening all. Looking forward to the next Newspoll.
“ Tell us more about your role in blockading Nicolle Flint’s office?”
That’s some pretty disgusting trolling right there, isn’t it L’arse? Not against me – who would deserve it and can handle it – but against one of the true gentlemen of the blog. Shame on you.