Save the date

Confusion surrounding the likely date of the New South Wales state by-elections, to add to that we already have about the federal election.

This coming Monday is the last date on which an election can be called for this year, specifically for the December 11 date spruiked recently by Anthony Albanese, which few if any still expect. The parlour game thus seems likely to move on now to the alternative scenarios of March and May. A complication in the former case is a South Australian state election set in the normal course of events for the third Saturday in March, i.e. March 19. If I understand the situation correctly, the South Australian government will have the discretion to delay the election by up to three weeks if a federal election is called before February 19 for a date in March.

Here’s what we do know:

• Max Maddison of The Australian reports grumbling within the New South Wales Liberal Party over its failure to have finalised candidates in the important seats of Dobell, Warringah and Gilmore. The report cites Liberal sources, no doubt with an interest in the matter, accusing Alex Hawke of using his clout on state executive to delay proceedings to the advantage of candidates of his centre right faction. “Other senior Liberal sources” contend the problem is “a lack of quality candidates and impending local government elections”. Prospective nominees for Dobell include former test cricketer Nathan Bracken, along with Michael Feneley, a cardiologist who has twice run unsuccessfully in Kingsford Smith, and Jemima Gleeson, owner of a chain of coffee shops.

• Further on Gilmore, the ever-readable Niki Savva reported in her Age/Herald column a fortnight ago that “speculation is rife” that Andrew Constance will not in fact proceed with his bid for preselection, just as he withdrew from contention Eden-Monaro ahead of last year’s by-election. If so, that would seemingly leave the path clear for Shoalhaven Heads lawyer Paul Ell, who is reckoned a formidable opponent to Constance in any case.

• Labor has not been breaking its back to get candidates in place in New South Wales either, with still no sign of progress in the crucial western Sydney fringe seat of Lindsay. However, candidates have recently been confirmed in two Liberal marginals: Zhi Soon, an education policy adviser and former diplomat, in Banks, and Sally Sitou, a University of Sydney doctoral candidate and one-time ministerial staffer, in Reid.

• In Victoria, Labor’s candidate in La Trobe will be Abhimanyu Kumar, owner of a local home building company.

• In an article by Jason Campbell of the Herald Sun, JWS Research says rising poll numbers for Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party are being driven by “skilled labourers and lower-end middle-management”, supplementing an existing support base that had largely been limited to people over 65. Maleness and low education remain common threads.

• An article on the voter identification laws by Graeme Orr of the University of Queensland in The Conversation makes a point I had not previously heard noted: that those who lodge a declaration vote in lieu of providing identification will have no way of knowing if their vote was ultimately admitted to the count. This stands in contrast to some American states, where those who cast the equivalent of postal or absent votes can track their progress online.

New South Wales by-election latest:

• It is now clear that the by-elections will not be held simultaneously with the December 4 local government elections as initially anticipated. The Guardian reports that the state’s electoral commissioner, John Schmidt, told a parliamentary committee hearing yesterday that “it wouldn’t be possible or sensible to try and aim earlier than the middle of February”, in part because the government’s “piecemeal funding” of his agency had left it with inadequate cybersecurity standards.

• Labor has announced it will field a candidate in Bega, making it the only one of the five looming by-elections in which the Coalition and Labor are both confirmed starters. James O’Doherty of the Daily Telegraph (who I hope got paid extra for pointing out that “Labor has chosen to contest the seat despite Leader Chris Minns last month criticising the looming by-election as expensive and unnecessary”) reports nominees for Liberal preselection will include Eurobodalla Shire mayor Liz Innes and, possibly, Bega Valley Shire councillor Mitchell Nadin.

• Anton Rose of Inner West Courier reports Liberal hopes in Jodi McKay’s seat of Strathfield are not high, particularly if Burwood mayor John Faker emerges as the Labor candidate, and that the party would “not be mounting a vigorous campaign”. One prospective Liberal nominee is said to be Natalie Baini, a sports administrator who was said earlier in the year to planning a preselection against Fiona Martin in the federal seat of Reid.

Poll news:

• A Redbridge Group poll conducted for Simon Holmes a Court’s Climate 200 non-profit group records Treasurer Josh Frydenberg’s primary vote as having slumped from 49.4% in his blue-ribbon Melbourne seat of Kooyong to 38%. With the Greens on 15%, well short of the heights achieved with Julian Burnside as candidate in 2019, such a result would put Frydenberg under pressure from Labor on 31%. Around half of the balance is attributed to the United Australia Party, which seems doubtful in an electorate such as Kooyong. The objective of the poll was to test the waters for a Zali Steggall-like independent challenge, and responses to some rather leading questions indicated that such a candidate would indeed be competitive or better. The survey was conducted from October 16 to 18 by automated phone polling from a sample of 1017.

• Liberal-aligned think tank the Blueprint Institute has results from a YouGov poll on attitudes towards carbon emissions policy, conducted in nine regional electorates from September 28 to October 12 with samples of around 415 each. In spite of everything, these show large majorities in favour of both halving emissions by 2030 and net zero by 2050 even in such electorates as Hunter and Capricornia. Even among coal workers (sub-sample size unclear), the results are 63% and 64% respectively.

• The Australia Institute has published its annual Climate of the Nation survey, based on a poll of 2626 respondents conducted by YouGov in August.

• It took me a while to update BludgerTrack with last week’s Resolve Strategic and Roy Morgan results, but now that it’s done, I can exclusively reveal that they made very little difference. Labor is currently credited with a two-party lead of 53.8-46.2.

Also:

• Antony Green has published his analysis of the finalised Victorian state redistribution.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,799 comments on “Save the date”

Comments Page 36 of 56
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  1. I had a Pfizer booster shot today at Erina Respiratory Clinic, after my earlier two Astrazenica injections. Not the full six months since my second AZ, but reading about the enormous Swedish study made me very confident that this was a good idea. No trouble booking on line, and no questions on site. I was there for about 30 minutes and in that time there were 3 vaccinees. More staff than patients.

    I recommend this course of action to all Central Coast residents.
    Appointments available at 9.05 am tomorrow, and at 10 minute intervals throughout the day.

    https://www.healthdirect.gov.au/australian-health-services/17639f07-6e00-45bd-8ab6-267fd9956c52/central-coast-respiratory-clinic/services/erina-2250-terrigal

    A nationwide cohort study of 721,787 individuals in Sweden has demonstrated that people who have received an Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine dose followed by a Pfizer or Moderna vaccine dose have more protection against infection than people who received two Oxford-AstraZeneca doses.

    Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine provided 50% protection against infection.
    Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine followed by a Pfizer vaccine dose was 67% effective against infection.

    https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/covid-19-vaccine-mix-and-match-benefits-of-an-mrna-second-dose?c=104944888644

  3. So will I be able to get a third shot before I venture beyond the hermit kingdom for the federal election, notwithstanding that I have no underlying conditions and didn’t get my second shot until a bit over a month ago?

  4. For what its worth, ammonia (NH3) has an energy content of about 22.5 MJ/kg whereas avgas is 44.6 MJ/kg.

    That’s why ammonia will never make it as an aviation fuel. (Its ok for ships).

    And liquid hydrogen has a density of about 70 grams per litre. In other words, hydrogen might have a high energy per unit of mass, but to use it on planes means that most of the volume of the plane would be fuel tank. (Or the plane got a lot fatter).

    Hence long haul aviation needs liquid hydrocarbon fuels and hence why we will be flying long distance flights that use synthetic liquid fuels.

    (Short haul aviation will be taken over by batteries).

  7. Boerwar @ #1334 Monday, November 8th, 2021 – 8:11 pm

    yabba
    Did you wait the six months after your second AZ?

    No, as I said in the post. Six months would be Dec 27. The clinic, with doctor in attendance, had no problems with me getting it ‘early’, and they said that it was a good idea, + ‘congratulations’. There are very few people apart from those in nursing homes etc. who would have had their second AZ six months ago. The clinic has stacks of doses, and nobody to give them to. If you look at the booking times availability from tomorrow onward, you will see that it is almost entirely open.

  10. “ For what its worth, ammonia (NH3) has an energy content of about 22.5 MJ/kg whereas avgas is 44.6 MJ/kg.

    That’s why ammonia will never make it as an aviation fuel. (Its ok for ships).

    And liquid hydrogen has a density of about 70 grams per litre. In other words, hydrogen might have a high energy per unit of mass, but to use it on planes means that most of the volume of the plane would be fuel tank. (Or the plane got a lot fatter).

    Hence long haul aviation needs liquid hydrocarbon fuels and hence why we will be flying long distance flights that use synthetic liquid fuels.

    (Short haul aviation will be taken over by batteries).”

    For what it is worth Cud, the technology now being explored that I referred to above, and I linked those articles about earlier, uses ammonia for storage in wing tanks, and only partially reforms it to hydrogen before injecting that blend into the turbofan engines. Hence the energy density of the blend falls between the 22.5 mJ/kg for ammonia and the 70 mJ/kg for hydrogen you quote: the figures I’ve seen bandied about is that it will be approximately 80% as energy dense as av gas (kerosene) and therefore variable for long haul aviation. All very experimental I know, but it’s a blend of ammonia and partially reformed H2 which is the actual fuel in question.

  11. “ No, as I said in the post. Six months would be Dec 27. ”

    Yippie. 8 January will be six months for me. I think I’ll make an appointment for the second week of December.

  13. Speaking of unfortunate names, in my last posting (Russell Offices, Canberra), I was summoned by a senior officer to explain why one of my underlings couldn’t/wouldn’t pronounce a WRAN’s name correctly. WRAN Kuntz deserved much better. I took him aside to explain why he must pronounce it as “Koontz” at pay musters. In those day’s there was a catch-all section in the Naval Discipline Act – section 39 – to cover insubordination of this type (he claimed he couldn’t speak German) following which he was admonished, posted to Cerberus, a fitting punisment.

  16. Blending NH3 in natural gas and liquid fuel turbines is also a thing.

    It’s being explored in pulverised coal boilers, to help reduce carbon intensity.

  17. On the insidious corruption we usually associate with ‘those other countries’ becoming embedded in ‘our’ governments, the UK in the case of the columnist, but there’s some obvious comparisons with what’s going on here:

    Loose power teaches corruption, which in turn happens through technically above-board means. That loose power broadly requires three further conditions to trigger misconduct – a craven or cowed press, a lack of what is seen as a viable political alternative and a large section of the public made quiescent, either through apathy or tribalism.

    ….. once corruption starts to set in, it becomes very hard to reverse. It becomes (this will also sound familiar to you), “priced in” to people’s expectations of the political class, even institutionalised.

    I am not as pessimistic about the effectiveness of the opposition, but the other factors – the craven press and the dulled sensibilities of the population – weigh heavy.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/nov/08/corrupt-regimes-cynicism-britain-voters-political-class

  18. The COP26 buggeroo was another failure. ( But it’s only the 26th failed attempt to get global action on the climate crisis).

    The world/we are firmly on a trajectory to ecological disaster.

    An ecological disaster must also result in economic and social disasters.

    yet the modern liberal democratic state as the political wing of the neo-liberal capitalist system is incapable of taking action because it is a pathological state.

    It is entirely incapable of putting anything before short/medium term private profit.

  19. The one on the right is the Liberal candidate.

    Apparently, she’s the wife of the dude that slut shamed Brittany Higgins in the PMO after she went public.

  20. “ I wonder if the two women in the background (where else would they be in a Morrison photo?) are locals or from the PMO?”

    The newly minted Liberal candidates for Shortland and Patterson respectively. Both lawyers. The one on the right looks … human … in that photo op: as opposed to her facebook page announcing her candidacy which is clogging my feed. Which has been photoshopped within an inch of her life, making her look like a Madam Tussaud wax model: totally unnecessary of course – sometimes the stylists used by political parties need to understand that … less is more …

  21. Mavis @ #1345 Monday, November 8th, 2021 – 8:30 pm

    Speaking of unfortunate names

    My mother-in-law trained as a nurse in Perth during the second world war. She had a large photograph of the whole graduating class, with all of the names printed on the back. Her own name was Georgina. Nothing strange about that, but she had great delight pointing out two remarkable handles:

    Ophelia Dick, and

    Muriel Buglehole

    I kid you not!

    Also, in Burwood Road, uphill from the station, there was (maybe still is) a brass plaque proudly stating:

    Jack Doff
    Solicitor

    Perhaps he should be a mortgage broker, but maybe that wouldn’t help. I know! He should be a branch stacker. Better than a Sukkar, anyway.

  25. Yabba

    You lucky bastard. I’ve dealt with two pharmacists who wanted to argue with me telling me that I was perfectly safe at a full 6 months. Plus my own GP being difficult on the issue when I asked him about it a couple of months ago.

    I’m very tempted to come down to Erina.

    Can you link to the article again?

  28. Yabba

    This article (courtesy of poroti) surprised even me..

    https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/vaccinated-people-are-less-likely-spread-covid-new-research-finds-n1280583

    Short version. If you’re exposed to an infected person, you’re twice as likely to get infected yourself if the person you’re exposed to was twice vaccinated with Astra Zeneca than if the person was twice vaccinated with Pfizer.

    I’m also weighing up waiting for Moderna to become available as a booster. There’s been a number of articles saying that the immune response from Moderna wanes more slowly than does Pfizer’s.

    Also, earlier studies from the UK showed that your immunity from AZ/Pfizer feel substantially not in 6 months but in 90 days. Based on the scientific evidence, my level of immunity, 5 months after the 2nd AZ shot is probably down in the 60% ish range. That’s out of my comfort zone – especially given I may infect my 80+ mum.

    It really sucks that there’s a lot of Moderna now going to waste. Saw footage of this on the news tonight. I would really like to find a sensible chemist.

  29. Re Itza Dream @8:36. a craven or cowed press or an actively supporting one. Newscorp acts like an arm of the ruling party, or sometimes it seems like vice versa. Most of the rest of the mainstream media is supportive. The ABC is craven and cowed – in the end it will do them no good, they’ll be broken up and sold off regardless if this Government stays in power.

    a lack of what is seen as a viable political alternative We shall see. I’d vote for whoever was the Opposition to this Government if the leader were a yellow dog or a lump of 4 by 2, this Government is so unacceptable. Others, of course, think differently.

    and a large section of the public made quiescent, either through apathy or tribalism. that’s what the “culture wars” are for.

    I think that the Coalition is trying to engineer a situation in which they stay in power for decades, rather like the UMNO party in Malaysia, Putin’s United Russia Party or the National Party in Apartheid South Africa. We are not there yet, but it’s a definite risk.

  30. 4 Corners doing a job on the Obeids.

    The Obeids are a disgrace to NSW Labor, a disgrace to Strathfield, a disgrace to the Mid North Coast, and a disgrace to St. Pat’s.

    Jail the lot of them.

  33. Cud Chewer @ #1357 Monday, November 8th, 2021 – 8:52 pm

    Yabba

    You lucky bastard. I’ve dealt with two pharmacists who wanted to argue with me telling me that I was perfectly safe at a full 6 months. Plus my own GP being difficult on the issue when I asked him about it a couple of months ago.

    I’m very tempted to come down to Erina.

    Can you link to the article again?

    https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/covid-19-vaccine-mix-and-match-benefits-of-an-mrna-second-dose?c=104944888644

  35. Bushfire

    As egregious as the Obeids are, it reflects something deeper in our society.

    A long time ago I saw a study, reported on in a newspaper. It looked at the top 100 wealthiest individual in Australia and of those, how many basically got their wealth from gaming the system, having the right mates, benefiting from influence on policy, etc? about 60%.

  37. From David Sharaz, Brittany Higgins partner…

    ‘This is Brooke Vitnell, now a Lib candidate in NSW. Coincidentally, she’s the wife of the PM’s senior media adviser Julian Leembruggen – who was named in connection with those who backgrounded @BrittHiggins_ following her coming forward with her rape allegation. Worth a note.

  40. Thanks for the explanation re the two women in the background (Liberal candidates) at Morrison’s Newcastle PR stunt today.

    I wonder which location will be next on his great Propaganda Extravaganza™.

  41. I had my second AZ the other day with a bit of a group consultation with the GP and the nurse.
    One of the other patients asked about boosters and the GP a was bit equivocal.
    Some say you need them, some not. maybe with Pfizer, maybe not with AZ.
    Watch this space seemed to be his advice.
    I’m not sweating.
    But this is WA where we have been living a normal life Covid free for months.

  43. yabba:

    Monday, November 8, 2021 at 8:46 pm

    [‘Ophelia Dick, and

    Muriel Buglehole’]

    You’re more shocking than me – and that’s only a generation or so ago. I think we must we ajust our malajustment?

  45. citizen @ #1791 Monday, November 8th, 2021 – 9:21 pm

    Thanks for the explanation re the two women in the background (Liberal candidates) at Morrison’s Newcastle PR stunt today.

    I wonder which location will be next on his great Propaganda Extravaganza™.

    He’s yet to announce his candidate for Dobell. Which the Liberals are trying to convince everyone, via their vuvuzelas in the media, is winnable for them. Ditto, Paterson and Shortland. So he may come to the coast next.

    Has he brought the gravy train, loaded with pork, with him yet?

  47. Dobell – isn’t that where all but forgotten cricketer Nathan Bracken (?) wants to run. I believe another LNP fan is Brett Lee.

  48. C@momma

    I suspect you are in line for the promise of a nuclear hydrogen powered hypersonic hovertrain (with complimentary covid-free curries on top).

  49. yabbasays:
    Monday, November 8, 2021 at 9:22 pm
    My vax certificate, with dates.
    ________________
    What do you want, a fucking medal.
    Zero interest from me and am struggling to understand why you would even bother posting it on a political blog.

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