Save the date

Confusion surrounding the likely date of the New South Wales state by-elections, to add to that we already have about the federal election.

This coming Monday is the last date on which an election can be called for this year, specifically for the December 11 date spruiked recently by Anthony Albanese, which few if any still expect. The parlour game thus seems likely to move on now to the alternative scenarios of March and May. A complication in the former case is a South Australian state election set in the normal course of events for the third Saturday in March, i.e. March 19. If I understand the situation correctly, the South Australian government will have the discretion to delay the election by up to three weeks if a federal election is called before February 19 for a date in March.

Here’s what we do know:

• Max Maddison of The Australian reports grumbling within the New South Wales Liberal Party over its failure to have finalised candidates in the important seats of Dobell, Warringah and Gilmore. The report cites Liberal sources, no doubt with an interest in the matter, accusing Alex Hawke of using his clout on state executive to delay proceedings to the advantage of candidates of his centre right faction. “Other senior Liberal sources” contend the problem is “a lack of quality candidates and impending local government elections”. Prospective nominees for Dobell include former test cricketer Nathan Bracken, along with Michael Feneley, a cardiologist who has twice run unsuccessfully in Kingsford Smith, and Jemima Gleeson, owner of a chain of coffee shops.

• Further on Gilmore, the ever-readable Niki Savva reported in her Age/Herald column a fortnight ago that “speculation is rife” that Andrew Constance will not in fact proceed with his bid for preselection, just as he withdrew from contention Eden-Monaro ahead of last year’s by-election. If so, that would seemingly leave the path clear for Shoalhaven Heads lawyer Paul Ell, who is reckoned a formidable opponent to Constance in any case.

• Labor has not been breaking its back to get candidates in place in New South Wales either, with still no sign of progress in the crucial western Sydney fringe seat of Lindsay. However, candidates have recently been confirmed in two Liberal marginals: Zhi Soon, an education policy adviser and former diplomat, in Banks, and Sally Sitou, a University of Sydney doctoral candidate and one-time ministerial staffer, in Reid.

• In Victoria, Labor’s candidate in La Trobe will be Abhimanyu Kumar, owner of a local home building company.

• In an article by Jason Campbell of the Herald Sun, JWS Research says rising poll numbers for Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party are being driven by “skilled labourers and lower-end middle-management”, supplementing an existing support base that had largely been limited to people over 65. Maleness and low education remain common threads.

• An article on the voter identification laws by Graeme Orr of the University of Queensland in The Conversation makes a point I had not previously heard noted: that those who lodge a declaration vote in lieu of providing identification will have no way of knowing if their vote was ultimately admitted to the count. This stands in contrast to some American states, where those who cast the equivalent of postal or absent votes can track their progress online.

New South Wales by-election latest:

• It is now clear that the by-elections will not be held simultaneously with the December 4 local government elections as initially anticipated. The Guardian reports that the state’s electoral commissioner, John Schmidt, told a parliamentary committee hearing yesterday that “it wouldn’t be possible or sensible to try and aim earlier than the middle of February”, in part because the government’s “piecemeal funding” of his agency had left it with inadequate cybersecurity standards.

• Labor has announced it will field a candidate in Bega, making it the only one of the five looming by-elections in which the Coalition and Labor are both confirmed starters. James O’Doherty of the Daily Telegraph (who I hope got paid extra for pointing out that “Labor has chosen to contest the seat despite Leader Chris Minns last month criticising the looming by-election as expensive and unnecessary”) reports nominees for Liberal preselection will include Eurobodalla Shire mayor Liz Innes and, possibly, Bega Valley Shire councillor Mitchell Nadin.

• Anton Rose of Inner West Courier reports Liberal hopes in Jodi McKay’s seat of Strathfield are not high, particularly if Burwood mayor John Faker emerges as the Labor candidate, and that the party would “not be mounting a vigorous campaign”. One prospective Liberal nominee is said to be Natalie Baini, a sports administrator who was said earlier in the year to planning a preselection against Fiona Martin in the federal seat of Reid.

Poll news:

• A Redbridge Group poll conducted for Simon Holmes a Court’s Climate 200 non-profit group records Treasurer Josh Frydenberg’s primary vote as having slumped from 49.4% in his blue-ribbon Melbourne seat of Kooyong to 38%. With the Greens on 15%, well short of the heights achieved with Julian Burnside as candidate in 2019, such a result would put Frydenberg under pressure from Labor on 31%. Around half of the balance is attributed to the United Australia Party, which seems doubtful in an electorate such as Kooyong. The objective of the poll was to test the waters for a Zali Steggall-like independent challenge, and responses to some rather leading questions indicated that such a candidate would indeed be competitive or better. The survey was conducted from October 16 to 18 by automated phone polling from a sample of 1017.

• Liberal-aligned think tank the Blueprint Institute has results from a YouGov poll on attitudes towards carbon emissions policy, conducted in nine regional electorates from September 28 to October 12 with samples of around 415 each. In spite of everything, these show large majorities in favour of both halving emissions by 2030 and net zero by 2050 even in such electorates as Hunter and Capricornia. Even among coal workers (sub-sample size unclear), the results are 63% and 64% respectively.

• The Australia Institute has published its annual Climate of the Nation survey, based on a poll of 2626 respondents conducted by YouGov in August.

• It took me a while to update BludgerTrack with last week’s Resolve Strategic and Roy Morgan results, but now that it’s done, I can exclusively reveal that they made very little difference. Labor is currently credited with a two-party lead of 53.8-46.2.

Also:

• Antony Green has published his analysis of the finalised Victorian state redistribution.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,799 comments on “Save the date”

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  2. Bakunin

    “ How far do you think your battery EV’s will get driving the Tanami Road?”

    Next he will be arguing that his car fleet shall have to use Nuclear propulsion.

  4. CSIRO Staff
    @CSIROStaff
    For all the talk of the ‘the Australian way’, it’s actually US-based consultants who are providing the modelling for net-zero by 2050, at considerable cost and at the expense of homegrown expertise.

  5. Meanwhile here in Victoria, our pathetic media and the fiberals together with their aides and abetters have created this environment. Things can end badly if they dont ease up on this crap.

    Animal Justice Party MP Andy Meddick reveals horror toll of vile death threats ….
    Pathetic https://t.co/fzje59IVIU

  9. Lizzie

    That is quite sad and unnecessary. I wonder if they are employed for their expertise or to justify a pre determined outcome?

    In transport the Australian Road Research Board did a well researched paper on decarbonising the Australian light vehicle fleet in 2019/20 including modelling the entire car market. It was not even referred to in the much parodied Future Fuels Strategy.

    Have a good day all.

  11. Senator Murray Watt
    @MurrayWatt
    ·
    12m
    The last time a Liberal leader promised a bit of “Can Do”:

    14,000 people were sacked
    hospital funding was gutted
    mass privatisation was launched.

    Is this what Scott Morrison has in mind?

  12. Speaking of don’t do governments, this don’t do government don’t do quarantine, but handily has can do capitalist do do profiteering mates, who do do profits when don’t do governments don’t do.

    Ta Daaahhh: Quarantine Services Australia

    A company established by an influential Liberal party figure claims it could bring up to 160,000 foreign workers and students a year into Australia via a private hotel quarantine system with support from the Home Affairs Department.

    Quarantine Services Australia (QSA) was officially registered as a company on August 30 by former deputy NSW Liberal Party director Scott Briggs, who is also the president of Scott Morrison’s federal electoral conference in his Sydney electorate of Cook.

    Two weeks earlier, another company linked to Mr Briggs, DPG Advisory Solutions, was awarded a $79,500 “limited tender” contract by the Home Affairs department to provide “consultancy services” to help develop the proposal.

    Asks Kristine Keneally

    “How does it come to pass that the Prime Minister’s two best mates are the only two people that the Department of Home Affairs has approached to set up a fee-for-service, privatised quarantine system?”

    Blather mouth knows nothing of course. Well, more accurately, is not “involved”, one of those deflective words you use in a way of not saying what you exactly are doing. Up to the neck.

    Mr Morrison’s office insists the Prime Minister is not involved with the QSA proposal, which is being handled entirely by the Department of Home Affairs.

    “The Prime Minister has had no involvement in the engagement of anyone involved in developing this proposal and the proposal is being handled entirely by the Department of Home Affairs,” a spokesman for Mr Morrison said.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-11-10/private-quarantine-scheme-encouraged-home-affairs-department/100607072

  13. I’ll just put these two links here …

    Cop26: world on track for disastrous heating of more than 2.4C, says key report

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/nov/09/cop26-sets-course-for-disastrous-heating-of-more-than-24c-says-key-report

    Australia ranked last of 60 countries for policy response to climate crisis

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/nov/09/australia-ranked-last-of-60-countries-for-policy-response-to-climate-crisis

    If you want Australia to take action on climate change, vote independent.

    If you really don’t care, by all means vote for your favorite party of inaction.

  14. Whole not being an EV sceptic at all, I have a few practical questions concerning their implementation.

    ● Given that we have an electricity grid that is still struggling to shake off fossil fuel dependency, and at the same time to accommodate the increasingly decentralised power generation required for the localisation of electricity generation, how is the grid going to cope when not only does it have to service traditional demand for electricity, but also – by 2030 or thereabouts – almost completely replace the petrol and diesel supply industries?

    ● What about 2 or even 3-car households? The day-to-day power requirements for these will be very substantial. Is the grid ready for them?

    ● Who will actually pay for upgrades to the grid, if EVs do not attract some kind of tax to subsidize those upgrades?

    ● What will happen to the second-hand car market when it comes time to offload your perfectly usable but unfashionable petrol or diesel vehicle?

  16. Bushfire Bill says:
    Wednesday, November 10, 2021 at 9:39 am

    ● Who will actually pay for upgrades to the grid, if EVs do not attract some kind of tax to subsidize those upgrades?
    _________
    The power companies will make the upgrades. They will want to. They will be selling more power to EV owners.

  17. A few missed birthdays – Carl Sagan yesterday, Nov 9, and the great Dame Joan Wunderlungs, Nov 7.

    Sagan is well worthy, for the beautifully expressed sentiments and insights, great visuals especially for its time, and an awesome soundtrack (from Vangelis to Shostakovich).

    The opening introduction here might sound a bit saccharine, but thoroughly genuine, and if you’ve forgotten or never known, save this for some trips (sic) through spacetime later tonight.

    https://youtu.be/FT_nzxtgXEw

  18. P1

    I have just read the BBC report.

    More than 140 governments have promised to reach net zero, covering 90% of global emissions.

    But Climate Action Tracker says only a handful have plans in place to reach the goal. It analysed the policies of 40 countries and concluded that only a small number are rated “acceptable”, covering a fraction of the world’s emissions.

    “If they have no plans as to how to get there, and their 2030 targets are as low as so many of them are, then frankly, these net zero targets are just lip service to real climate action,” said Bill Hare, chief executive of Climate Analytics, one of the groups behind the Tracker.

    The main driver of the gap between promises and projections is continued coal and gas production, the organisation concludes.

  21. I see Home Affairs Karen has been busy. A nod is as a good as a personal involvement from the PMO I see as well. A ‘Good Girl’ who doesn’t need to be told. 🙂

  23. ”
    VCT Et3esays:
    Wednesday, November 10, 2021 at 6:27 am
    https://9now.nine.com.au/60-minutes/dirty-work/1b0b23f4-b3c5-4c2d-a936-be5fc88f905b

    It would appear even Costello’s had enough of #SFM
    ”

    There are lot of “Journos”, who want to criticise the federal government but can’t/couldn’t because of the pressure from bosses as a result of it being LNP government.
    Yes, they have the avenue to criticise State Labor governments but it is not the same as criticising the federal government. Those were the days when they could criticize Gillard ALP government day in day out to burnish their credentials and without any fear of blowback either from bosses or government.
    Now they have to wear the carping and sharp criticism of social media especially Twitter, which they cannot control and which points to the fact that they are biased and whackjobs.

  28. Yep.

    Doug Cameron
    @DougCameron51

    No
    @PhillipCoorey
    the Govt has not had an “epiphany”on climate action. It is a cynical ploy after years of climate denialism and is being called out by some professionals in the media.
    Unfortunately too many simpering sycophants in the media are grovelling Govt mouthpieces!

  29. You should stop peppering your posts with blatant defamations and four-letter words, Lizzie. Frankly I’m surprised William has allowed you to get away with it for so long.

  32. ”
    zoomstersays:
    Wednesday, November 10, 2021 at 6:48 am
    A Jag or a 4WD is a status symbol.

    Make having an EV a status symbol and the battle’s half over.
    ”

    As far I know owning a EV is a status symbol because
    1. It is bloody expensive like Jag
    2. It gives cool inner glow that you are doing something to environment.
    3. It looks stylish
    4. We don’t have to use 19th and 20th century fuel

  35. Socrates,

    Glad you are happy with 400km range and well worn paths, but you are basically validating the “Labor will steal your weekends” attack.

    Land Rover currently have plug-in hybrids available for Defender and Range Rover models, although only Range Rover is available in Aus with that option. Full electric RR models will be available in Australia from 2024.

    The fuel cell power train is slated as an option, and would be primarily of interest for expedition/ remote area / developing nations use, rather than for suburban travel.

  36. The bookies were as useless as the opinion polls in 2019 – Sportsbet even paid out on Labor early and lost millions.

    They too are on probation.

    Betman @ #2230 Wednesday, November 10th, 2021 – 7:01 am

    SportsBet has had a major shift to labor in the last week.

    ALP $1.78 in from $1.90

    LNP $2.00 out from $1.85

    With Morgan poll out today or tomorrow and newspoll this Sunday, it will be interesting to see if there is a shift in the betting markets.

  37. Being domiciled with 2 teenagers ( who share some of my genes ), I can say that a Tesla is the ultimate aspirational vehicle of the Youth. Their expectations to have one as a first vehicle brings some levity.

  39. Vogon Poet @ #2335 Wednesday, November 10th, 2021 – 9:05 am

    Being domiciled with 2 teenagers ( who share some of my genes ), I can say that a Tesla is the ultimate aspirational vehicle of the Youth. Their expectations to have one as a first vehicle brings some levity.

    They will have one as a first vehicle. A used one. They just need to wait 1) for the current supply-chain issues to be sorted, and then 2) a few years for there to actually be heavily used Teslas floating around en-masse.

    The current used Tesla market is a bit on the crazy side, with new deliveries delayed by several months at least. Pushes up prices for the cars already in the country.

  42. “I can say that a Tesla is the ultimate aspirational vehicle of the Youth.”

    LOL! Me, i probably would not do Tesla. Seems there are quite a few issues with general build quality though the EV system is good.

    Currently got a Prius (second hand from 2005) which though the battery is old still gets me around very economically. Current aspiration after a lotto win? Probably a RAV4 Hybrid??

    My mum told me yesterday that my car needs a buzzer or something. Coming into her place slow (running on the electric only) and its really, really quiet.

  43. Bakunin, I’m waiting for a 4WD electric as it would suit me perfectly. The lower centre of gravity, tourque at very low speeds and extra storage space (the Ford F-150 ev has 400 litres of space under the bonnet) would far outweigh the 400-450 km range. Yes, more charging stations are a good idea but for a farm ute, the range and home charging options are not an obstacle.

  44. I was thinking “hybrids” too, certainly as a transitional strategy. My sister has a small Toyota hybrid. It’s cost her $600 in petrol in 3 years.

  46. I dareday when the first petrol cars appeared in outback Australia with their tiny fuel tanks the horse owners whose animals could almost get their feed by the track said “ that idea will never catch on”

  47. ar : Thanks for the offer, I don’t think they care what colour you get them.
    imacca : You obviously don’t know any Youf. A Rav is something your boring mum drives. Cool people have Tesla’s ( that’s what I’m told )
    Pimps even have gold ones

  50. Andrew Gold:

    Wednesday, November 10, 2021 at 6:53 am

    Thanks. I will start Boogie on 10mg and see how she goes. I will also check out the alternative treatment you referred to in your post. I’m also going to attempt to do her nails. She was a rescue dog and is a very good watch dog, her only character defect is that she’s an escapologist, costing a mint in fencing.

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