This week should see the fortnightly federal voting intention poll from Roy Morgan, the regular fortnightly Essential Research poll which is scheduled to feature neither voting intention numbers nor leadership ratings, and possibly the more-or-less monthly Resolve Strategic poll from the Age/Herald. Until then:
• Tom McIlroy of the Financial Review reports the Centre Alliance will push for an inquiry into the government’s voter identification bill when it comes before the Senate, to which it will presumably progress swiftly after coming before the House of Representatives today. Three further electoral bills come before the House on Tuesday: to reduce the thresholds beyond which those who spend money on their own election campaigning are required to lodge annual disclosures; to provide for measures deemed desirable under emergency conditions such as pandemics, including greater flexibility with postal and pre-poll voting; and to require security assessments and such like for the computer systems and software used to conduct the Senate count. Two notable bits of detail include bringing forward the deadline for receipt of postal vote applications from the Wednesday before the election to the Tuesday, and requiring the Australian Electoral Commission to publish the Senate vote data files within seven days of the return of the writs, having presumably been allowed to play it by ear in the past.
• A preselection vote on Saturday to determine the successor to Victorian Liberal Senator Scott Ryan, both in respect to the vacancy arising from his imminent retirement and the third position on the Coalition ticket at the election, was won by Greg Mirabella, Wangaratta farmer and husband of Sophie Mirabella. James Campbell of the Herald Sun reports Mirabella won the final round by 165 votes to 141 over Simon Frost, staffer to Josh Frydenberg and former state party director. Incumbent Sarah Henderson comfortably won the ballot for the top position, with the second reserved for Bridget Mackenzie of the Nationals. Other unsuccessful candidates were Emanuele Cicchiello, former Knox mayor and deputy principal at Lighthouse Christian College, and Ranjana Srivastava, an oncologist who also contested the preselection for Casey.
• A dispute within the New South Wales Liberal Party affecting preselections for Warringah, Hughes, Gilmore, Eden-Monaro, Dobell and Parramatta reached a new pitch at a meeting of its state executive on Friday night, which resolved to close nominations on December 3 with plebiscites likely to follow in February. However, James Massola of the Sydney Morning Herald reports the issue could be settled next week by a deal between Scott Morrison and Dominic Perrottet, potentially through the federal executive choosing candidates with plebiscites. Broadly speaking, the dispute pits centre right powerbroker Alex Hawke against the combined forces of the moderates and the hard right, with the former wanting candidates to be promptly installed by the state council and the latter wanting party plebiscites at the cost of delaying the process until February. One aspect of this is that Scott Morrison, who is close to Hawke, is backing state MPs (specifically Holsworthy MP Melanie Gibbons run in Hughes and Parramatta MP Geoff Lee’s for the federal seat of the same name) for preselection in federal seats while Dominic Perrottet, from the hard right, would sooner avoid the resulting state by-elections.
• Dominic Perrottet’s concerns apparently do not extend to the done deal of Bega MP Andrew Constance contesting preselection for Gilmore. However, Constance’s field of competition has now expanded to include Jemma Tribe, a charity operator and former Shoalhaven councillor, and Stephen Hayes, a former RAAF officer and staffer to Christopher Pyne. They join Shoalhaven Heads lawyer Paul Ell, who by all accounts has strong support in local branches, while Constance is favoured by Alex Hawke and the centre right.
• Sharon Bird, who has held the Illawarra seat of Cunningham for Labor since 2004, has announced she will retire at the election. With the seat seemingly the preserve of the Right faction, candidates to succeed her reportedly include Misha Zelinsky, Fulbright scholar and assistant national secretary of the Right faction Australian Workers Union, who aborted a planned challenge to Bird’s preselection before the 2016 election; Alison Byrnes, an adviser to Bird; and Tania Brown, Wollongong councillor and an administrator at the University of Wollongong.
• Labor’s candidate for north coast New South Wales seat of Page, which was held by Labor through the Rudd-Gillard period but now has a Nationals margin of 9.4%, is Patrick Deegan, who works for a domestic violence support service and also ran in 2019.
When Nine Entertainment bought Fairfax I gave thought to ending my subscription, thinking it would turn tabloid but by & large I’ve been pleasantly surprised, and so it seems have many others.
[‘The Sydney Morning Herald remains Australia’s most read news outlet, with an online and print audience of 8.6 million readers.
Figures released by Roy Morgan on Monday show year-on-year readership grew by 5 per cent across print and digital in the 12-month period ending September 2021.
The data shows the Herald’s readership is now 78 per cent larger than its direct competitor.
…
“More people than ever are turning to the Sydney Morning Herald to inform, entertain and challenge them,” acting Sydney Morning Herald editor Cosima Marriner said.
“We are proud to be the most read masthead in the country, proof of how highly readers value our quality journalism.”
Across the Herald and Age, Saturday’s Good Weekend continues to be Australia’s most read inserted magazine, attracting an average issue print readership of 808,000, up 5 per cent quarter-on-quarter.’]
https://www.smh.com.au/national/sydney-morning-herald-the-most-read-newspaper-in-the-country-20211122-p59aum.html
Need to slow down across “progressive Protectionists protested”
Simon Katich @ #46 Monday, November 22nd, 2021 – 9:24 am
The Practice Nurse did the jabbing at my GP.
From memory, Cosima Marriner is a good egg. She would likely be a good editor.
UK Cartoon catchup:
Simon Katisch,
Thanks for taking the trouble, but sorry… I’m sick and tired of hearing even more rumours and theories about which vaccine for which illness is best. The endless sermonizing and vaccine snobbery on PB over the past year has been enough for several lifetimes.
Obviously your GP mate makes no money from vaccinations carried out at pharmacies. Can we leave it at that?
Victoria records 1,029 new COVID-19 cases and three deaths
There are now 9,533 active cases of the virus in Victoria, and 460 people have died during the state’s current Delta outbreak.
There are 316 people in hospital with COVID-19, of whom 44 are in intensive care, and 23 are on a ventilator.
The health department said a further 54 people are in intensive care but their infections are no longer considered active.
The new cases were detected from 49,818 test results received yesterday.
There were 3,510 doses of vaccine administered at state-run sites yesterday, and more vaccinations at GP clinics and other venues.
Victoria has fully vaccinated more than 89 per cent of its population aged 12 and over.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-11-22/victoria-records-new-covid-cases-and-deaths/100638792
I think the UK cartoons are good value. Thanks for posting them Alpha Zero.
Cat:
It was just a silly attempt to riff on Ven and VCT’s comments earlier. I chose 1906 because it struck me as having the least similarities to the current political climate. 🙂
”
BKsays:
Monday, November 22, 2021 at 8:21 am
C@t
Maybe no plans, but certainly the inclination!
”
Why don’t they rule out categorically like they demand ALP to do on the issues they think they can wedge ALP?
Mavis ‘I think the UK cartoons are good value. Thanks for posting them Alpha Zero.’
Agree. Thanks, Alpha. Boris Churchill is a new one.
”
Ashasays:
Monday, November 22, 2021 at 9:00 am
The 2022 election is clearly going to be a rerun of the 1906 election. All the signs are there.
”
As in which way because none of us were in 1906?
1906 was much more fragmented….I suspect this election will be super close maybe like 1940. I don’t suspect the liberals will win seats net in nsw. So wa… qld …and to a lesser extent tas, vic and SA will determine who wins.
I think the unusual aspect of this election is Palmer, Hanson, the nationals and now the Liberals are fighting like cats and dogs over the far right vote.
There is nowhere for moderate liberals but independents or Labor. The hard right might have gained control of the Liberals but the political class seems to be universally lining up against Morrison.
It is going to be an interesting election.
Asha @ #59 Monday, November 22nd, 2021 – 9:39 am
Actually Cat, some of us are interested in politics and like to, you know, read.
Like books and stuff.
Simon won’t be held hostage:
[‘Federal Finance Minister Simon Birmingham says the government won’t be held to ransom as senators threaten to withhold support for key legislation unless the federal government overrides state vaccine mandates.
“The government won’t be dictated to,” Mr Birmingham told the ABC’s RN Breakfast earlier this morning.
“We’ll do what we’ve always done which is work with the health advisors.
“I fully respect the right of Liberal and National Party members to cross the floor … what I would urge any parliamentarian, though, not to do is to hold one issue ransom to other unrelated issues.”
The comments come as Mr Birmingham defended the Prime Minister amid accusations he failed to “unequivocally condemn” threats of violence and extremism by protesters across the country.’] – SMH
If it comes to the crunch, the ransom will be paid.
Michael QUINLIVAN @ #5 Monday, November 22nd, 2021 – 9:48 am
I’m feeling 2001 in me waters.
I’ve read one book in the last decade: “The Death of Ivan Ilyich”. I thought I’d leave reading on a high.
Mavis @ #10 Monday, November 22nd, 2021 – 9:55 am
…’I’ve read one books..”
Clearly.
In all seriousness, now that I’m properly thinking about it, I’m actually don’t know what previous election the upcoming poll could really be compared to. Ultimately, while there are always parallels than can be drawn, every election is unique, and we don’t even know yet what the result of the 2022 election will be.
I do think Covid, particularly measures like border restrictions, are fast becoming the Right’s “boat people”, in the sense that they are totally out-of-step with the majority public opinion on the matter. So, I reckon a bizarro reverse-2001 isn’t out of the question, though that is quite possibly just wishcasting on my part.
”
Ashasays:
Monday, November 22, 2021 at 9:39 am
Cat:
Who even remembers the 1906 election, unless you’re some sort of political science wonk. Please explain!?!
It was just a silly attempt to riff on Ven and VCT’s comments earlier. I chose 1906 because it struck me as having the least similarities to the current political climate.
”
Ha ha ha …. Very funny.
From a comment over at the SMH;
‘choices carry invoices’
Referring to unvaxed types.
Never heard that one before although people talking about ‘sacrifices’ when complaining about ‘private*’ school fees always gives me a laugh.
*subsidised
mundo:
Monday, November 22, 2021 at 9:59 am
I trust you’re not down to highlighting typos(?). Go and read a book.
“The Sydney Morning Herald remains Australia’s most read news outlet, with an online and print audience of 8.6 million readers”.
Not sure how they’re justifying that, since SMH online only came in at #5 during October, so, so far down from the ABC at #1. Similarly, more people read The Guardian online than The Age.
https://twitter.com/meadea/status/1460772844434984961
“So wa… qld …and to a lesser extent tas, vic and SA will determine who wins”.
The Liberal brand has been utterly trashed in Vic. They’ll be going backwards here.
Interesting tweet:
“Peter FitzSimons
@Peter_Fitz
This looks very like the successful Zali campaign: seriously well organised, well-funded, strong female candidate with cred on climate change – in an electorate that cares about the same – blind-siding sitting member. Really one to watch.”
Worth looking at the images with the tweet. Spender’s team have cunningly chosen a teal-coloured theme for her marketing, which has a none-too subtle overlap with Liberal and Greens advertising.
She knows who she is competing with. If she could get a preference swapping deal with the Greens I think she will have an excellent chance.
Might also pick up any expatriate Port supporters living in Sydney 🙂
One Nation Leader PaulineHansonOz will withhold support for all government legislation unless the Prime Minister backs her bill to stop mandatory vaccinations.
One Nation Leader Pauline Hanson will withhold support for all government legislation unless the Prime Minister backs her bill to stop mandatory vaccinations.Ms Hanson will introduce her legislation in the Senate tomorrow which seeks to make it unlawful to discriminate against Australians who choose not to be vaccinated agains
Holdenhillbilly @ #77 Monday, November 22nd, 2021 – 7:20 am
WOOOOOOO HOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!
😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆
In the enormous scale of the Morrison government’s mismanagement of vehicle emissions, we perhaps lose sight of all the other areas of mismanagement of transport. One of them is road safety.
In the past decade every State failed to reach their target for lowering road deaths under the National Road Safety Strategy for 2010-2020. One reason why is that Australia has imported a large number of heavy, not-as-safe-as-you-think 4WD utes, that do far more damage in a crash than an average car. We also don’t necessarily crash test them here any more either.
https://www.drive.com.au/news/safety-alert-for-6000-great-wall-motors-utes-sold-in-australia/
In other words, since the demise of the Australian car industry, we have stopped paying attention to vehicle standards and car consumer product protection entirely. We don’t test vehicle emissions here (in lab or on road). We don’t test fuel economy here (lab or on road). We only do crash testing if the manufacturer can’t supply a crash test from somewhere else (and we treat Chinese crash test results equally with German…). You can see where this leads. It is a race to the bottom.
In this case the earlier “Great Wall” utes had a 2 star crash rest rating. Compared to a five star vehicle, that would result in a 1.6 x increased risk of death in a serious crash. (on average)
You can’t say the UK Tories don’t have a sense of humour. 🙂
Player One:
You may like this comment by a caller to RN re. independents:
“Vote for them as little will get done.” He was being ironic, meaning it’s better for little to get done than, for example, passing legislation like the religious discrimination bill, the cashless debit card.
somethinglikethat @ #75 Monday, November 22nd, 2021 – 10:06 am
There’s not a lot of low-hanging fruit there. Chisolm is in play, Higgins just possibly, that’s about it in terms of Labor picking up seats.
somethinglikethat says:
Monday, November 22, 2021 at 10:06 am
“So wa… qld …and to a lesser extent tas, vic and SA will determine who wins”.
The Liberal brand has been utterly trashed in Vic. They’ll be going backwards here
Likewise in WA. The Liberals federally are aligned with Palmer in the public mind, and therefore will be seen to be against the better interests and welfare of the entire population in this State. The die-hard Lib rump vote will stick with them, but in general past-Lib votes are up for grabs. In a choice between McGowan and Morrison/Palmer, McGowan will win very comfortably.
If the Liberals make any serious mis-steps here they could lose most of their seats. Only O’Connor should be regarded as safe for them. In a Covid+Economy election, Labor have sound chances in Pearce, Swan and Hasluck. Tangney and Moore are possibles. Canning, Curtin, Durack and Curtin are not out of the question and would most likely be won by Labor if results were similar to those in the State election. So the Liberals are in the gun for between 3 and 9 seats in WA.
Really, they don’t deserve to win a single seat. The Federal Liberals first abandoned and then insulted the people of this State. We do not live in caves. And we will most likely vote against the Liberals in very large numbers indeed.
Socrates says:
Monday, November 22, 2021 at 10:19 am
Interesting tweet:
“Peter FitzSimons
@Peter_Fitz
This looks very like the successful Zali campaign: seriously well organised, well-funded, strong female candidate with cred on climate change – in an electorate that cares about the same – blind-siding sitting member. Really one to watch.”
Worth looking at the images with the tweet. Spender’s team have cunningly chosen a teal-coloured theme for her marketing, which has a none-too subtle overlap with Liberal and Greens advertising.
She knows who she is competing with. If she could get a preference swapping deal with the Greens I think she will have an excellent chance.
Might also pick up any expatriate Port supporters living in Sydney
Why would Spender align herself with the Greens? Were she to do that, she would almost certainly lose. The Greens are electoral mixi.
Spender seems to have it figured out. She’s going to run as a Liberal in all but Party Name. If she can split the Liberal vote sufficiently, she will win.
The Greens have no chance whatsoever in Wentworth and are irrelevant except to the extent they will try to spoil the ground for any credible Indy. Indy Libs are competitors of the Greens. They have succeeded where the Greens have failed. Their numbers in the House are clear evidence of mission failure for the Greens. So they will try to foul Spender in the same way as they tried to foul Phelps and Steggall.
The Greens would prefer to have Sharma in Parliament than a Lib-Lite Indy with a message on climate change. Every such voice illustrates that democratic change is theoretically possible in spite of the Greens rather than because of them. In Bob Brown’s almanac, Indy candidates are to be defeated where possible.
The following additional Victorian seats can be and should be in play.
Casey: Losing the speaker and a factional infight for candidacy.
Deakin: Sukkar is odious and hasn’t delivered his planned car parks.
Aston: Tudge – the cleanskin family values man who naturally isn’t.
La Trobe: Jason Wood’s career highlight is still his speech on GMOs. Has lost his seat previously and can lose it once more.
These are seats that labor should be holding at some point in the future and are likely to flip with government or be changing hands into a second term.
They’re already +1 seat with the establishment of Hawke.
Don’t underestimate the raw hatred many have for Hunt and Frydenberg. Couldn’t do their jobs re vaccines, yet poured scorn on Victoria every chance they had over the past 2 years.
somethinglikethat says:
Monday, November 22, 2021 at 10:59 am
They’re already +1 seat with the establishment of Hawke.
Don’t underestimate the raw hatred many have for Hunt and Frydenberg. Couldn’t do their jobs re vaccines, yet poured scorn on Victoria every chance they had over the past 2 years.
WA voters have a low opinion of Morrison for the same kind of reasons. He’s certainly seen as that lying idiot from somewhere over East who doesn’t understand or care about WA. There are no reasons at all for WA to vote for Morrison. None.
#PMforNSW trends on twitter for very good reason.
Briefly,
If you lived in an electorate where LNP and Greens were in final contention and Labor preferences decided the outcome who would you direct preferences to?
Hanson is campaigning for the affections of the nut-job constituencies….campaigning to defend her territory against the Liberals, the Nationals and Palmer. Good. She will help Labor by default.
Bushfire Bill @ #56 Monday, November 22nd, 2021 – 9:05 am
I have regularly defended the AZ vax. And I get my flu vax from the pharmacy. No wukkas. Yet if I were in a high risk category I would look further into what the GP was saying.
bakunin says:
Monday, November 22, 2021 at 11:07 am
Briefly,
If you lived in an electorate where LNP and Greens were in final contention and Labor preferences decided the outcome who would you direct preferences to?
Is this a trick question? I think the Greens should be dissolved. They are not fit to serve in the Parliament. I would usually follow the Party Card. If that meant voting for the Greens, I would. I don’t pretend to know everything and would vote that way against my own judgment. But it’s a secret ballot…perhaps I would put the Greens second last…ahead of ON. Very tempting. They keep the Reactionaries in power. There’s no difference in that respect between a Lib and a Green.
But that was then 😆
.
9m ago11:07
Just a reminder vaccine mandates are not new – it was Scott Morrison who introduced “no jab, no play” rules for daycares while social services minister in 2015.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2021/nov/22/australia-politics-parliament-covid-nt-nsw-act-morrison-legislation-vaccination-election-victoria-pandemic-perrottet-andrews#:~:text=services%20minister%20in-,2015,-.
Is there any more embittered old fart who has the Greens living rent free in their mind 24/7?
Though there certainly seems a few bludger contenders
Quoll that’s a classic coming from someone who has Labor living free in their mind 24/7.
Lambie lets fly
(guardian)
Latest friendlyjordies.
https://youtu.be/527bT4ZDUBA
Yeah, but what does Lambie REALLY think?
Bloos says:
Monday, November 22, 2021 at 11:12 am
I don’t pretend to know everything
______________
Well that’s debatable.
FIVE Coalition senators crossed the floor to back One Nation’s vaccine mandate bill: Rennick, Canavan, Alex Antic, Sam McMahon and Concetta Fierravanti-Wells