This week should see the fortnightly federal voting intention poll from Roy Morgan, the regular fortnightly Essential Research poll which is scheduled to feature neither voting intention numbers nor leadership ratings, and possibly the more-or-less monthly Resolve Strategic poll from the Age/Herald. Until then:
• Tom McIlroy of the Financial Review reports the Centre Alliance will push for an inquiry into the government’s voter identification bill when it comes before the Senate, to which it will presumably progress swiftly after coming before the House of Representatives today. Three further electoral bills come before the House on Tuesday: to reduce the thresholds beyond which those who spend money on their own election campaigning are required to lodge annual disclosures; to provide for measures deemed desirable under emergency conditions such as pandemics, including greater flexibility with postal and pre-poll voting; and to require security assessments and such like for the computer systems and software used to conduct the Senate count. Two notable bits of detail include bringing forward the deadline for receipt of postal vote applications from the Wednesday before the election to the Tuesday, and requiring the Australian Electoral Commission to publish the Senate vote data files within seven days of the return of the writs, having presumably been allowed to play it by ear in the past.
• A preselection vote on Saturday to determine the successor to Victorian Liberal Senator Scott Ryan, both in respect to the vacancy arising from his imminent retirement and the third position on the Coalition ticket at the election, was won by Greg Mirabella, Wangaratta farmer and husband of Sophie Mirabella. James Campbell of the Herald Sun reports Mirabella won the final round by 165 votes to 141 over Simon Frost, staffer to Josh Frydenberg and former state party director. Incumbent Sarah Henderson comfortably won the ballot for the top position, with the second reserved for Bridget Mackenzie of the Nationals. Other unsuccessful candidates were Emanuele Cicchiello, former Knox mayor and deputy principal at Lighthouse Christian College, and Ranjana Srivastava, an oncologist who also contested the preselection for Casey.
• A dispute within the New South Wales Liberal Party affecting preselections for Warringah, Hughes, Gilmore, Eden-Monaro, Dobell and Parramatta reached a new pitch at a meeting of its state executive on Friday night, which resolved to close nominations on December 3 with plebiscites likely to follow in February. However, James Massola of the Sydney Morning Herald reports the issue could be settled next week by a deal between Scott Morrison and Dominic Perrottet, potentially through the federal executive choosing candidates with plebiscites. Broadly speaking, the dispute pits centre right powerbroker Alex Hawke against the combined forces of the moderates and the hard right, with the former wanting candidates to be promptly installed by the state council and the latter wanting party plebiscites at the cost of delaying the process until February. One aspect of this is that Scott Morrison, who is close to Hawke, is backing state MPs (specifically Holsworthy MP Melanie Gibbons run in Hughes and Parramatta MP Geoff Lee’s for the federal seat of the same name) for preselection in federal seats while Dominic Perrottet, from the hard right, would sooner avoid the resulting state by-elections.
• Dominic Perrottet’s concerns apparently do not extend to the done deal of Bega MP Andrew Constance contesting preselection for Gilmore. However, Constance’s field of competition has now expanded to include Jemma Tribe, a charity operator and former Shoalhaven councillor, and Stephen Hayes, a former RAAF officer and staffer to Christopher Pyne. They join Shoalhaven Heads lawyer Paul Ell, who by all accounts has strong support in local branches, while Constance is favoured by Alex Hawke and the centre right.
• Sharon Bird, who has held the Illawarra seat of Cunningham for Labor since 2004, has announced she will retire at the election. With the seat seemingly the preserve of the Right faction, candidates to succeed her reportedly include Misha Zelinsky, Fulbright scholar and assistant national secretary of the Right faction Australian Workers Union, who aborted a planned challenge to Bird’s preselection before the 2016 election; Alison Byrnes, an adviser to Bird; and Tania Brown, Wollongong councillor and an administrator at the University of Wollongong.
• Labor’s candidate for north coast New South Wales seat of Page, which was held by Labor through the Rudd-Gillard period but now has a Nationals margin of 9.4%, is Patrick Deegan, who works for a domestic violence support service and also ran in 2019.
PM warns warring MPs election could be ‘a bit like 2007’
Phillip Coorey
Prime Minister Scott Morrison has warned dissident MPs that the Coalition will hand victory to the Labor Party within months unless the government unifies.
But, but …. Uhlmann said ….
Hanson has backflipped on yet another promise; Lambie’s assessment of this woman is on the money though the proposed inquiry has been delayed due to the instigator of it abstaining from voting. As the saying goes, it would be hard to make this up. What a fiasco!
[‘A government-backed Senate inquiry into the ABC and SBS’s complaints handling processes has been derailed by a Labor and Greens push to suspend it until the next term of Parliament.
The inquiry was thwarted amid confusion on the Senate floor, which saw Liberal senator Gerard Rennick abstain from voting on a motion to postpone the inquiry, handing the numbers to Labor and the Greens – an outcome he is now trying to reverse.
Senator Pauline Hanson, who is attending Parliament via video link, initially said One Nation would abstain from a vote to derail a government-backed inquiry into the ABC and SBS’s complaints processes.
Meanwhile, One Nation, which had declared it would abstain – a move that would have ensured the inquiry was halted – later backflipped and voted with the government.
The ensuing chaos resulted in Labor, the Greens and independent crossbenchers teaming up to deliver ABC chair Ita Buttrose’s plea for the Senate to abandon the inquiry while the broadcaster was conducting its own external review into the issue.
Liberal senator Andrew Bragg, who as chairman of the Senate standing committee on environment and communications instigated the inquiry, criticised the outcome as “a backward step for our democracy”.
“It sets a terrible precedent for the Senate to close public access, especially where more than a dozen submissions have already been received as evidence,” Senator Bragg said.’]
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/one-nation-s-bid-to-derail-senate-inquiry-into-the-abc-and-sbs-complaints-mechanism-20211123-p59bcq.html
HH,
Coory the stenographer has got the inside goss. Looks like the message from the PMO’s office is “It’s all your fault”.
Holdenhillbilly @ #950 Tuesday, November 23rd, 2021 – 8:16 pm
Good luck with that, ScoMo. 🙂
Honestly, I don’t think the dissident MPs are of a mind to cut Morrison any slack. There is a project afoot to take the Liberal and Nationals parties down the Trump Republican road and it wouldn’t surprise me if a split as big as the Labor split which calved the DLP, happens after the election, and especially if they lose.
I see Pauline Hanson, the LDP, the UAP, and the Reactionary Conservative dissidents that are still in the government now, all joining together into one party and leaving the ‘Modern Moderate Liberals’ to fight on without them. Which is basically the Morrison diehards, euphemistically the ‘Centre Right’, and the Wet Moderates.
We may even see Herr Dutton choose to lead the new party, which would be more to his liking anyway.
Anyway, I could be wrong and the ties that bind may be stronger than the forces pulling them apart. I just don’t get that feeling.
Liberal senator Andrew Bragg, who as chairman of the Senate standing committee on environment and communications instigated the inquiry, criticised the outcome as “a backward step for our democracy”.
Or, in other words, Andrew Bragg wanted to do a little Timmy Wilson before the election and conduct hearings around the country in the run-up to the federal election. I bet.
“It is very depressing to note that basically nothing has been accomplished in climate action in Australia in the 12 years since the CPRS was knocked back.”
***
This is just wrong. The Greens’ ETS was implemented and was working.
The reason not much has happened since then is because Labor and the Coalition continue teaming up to destroy the environment.
But yes, I agree, there is no point in flogging the dead CPRS horse any more. It never happened, would have been totally useless if it had, and bringing it up only serves to remind everyone of how Labor tried to work with the Coalition to protect the big polluters.
“Yep, United We Win…. Divided They Win….
… To be remembered in the Senate as soon as Albo becomes our next PM in 2022…”
***
I hope so – Labor needs to work with the Greens much more instead of constantly teaming up with the Coalition. That’s what Australia needs.
Will Morrison’s successor be Joshie or the Potato, or will someone else come up from behind at the last minute?
The future Australian Nationalist Party? The Nationals, LNP/ CLP, One Nation, the “Liberal” Right, Palmists and assorted nutjobs. Maybe they’d garner 25% of the vote. Would the rump of the Liberals preference them?
“… or will someone else come up from behind at the last minute?”
Like what happened last time…
Sales and Tingle were an effective, if unlikely tag team tonight. Absolutely demolished Dutton and, in particular, Morrison. As for the story about the military bastardisation that never seems to go away, I’m sure our resident apologist will be along to debunk that while he’s trying to debunk Sales and Tingle. Imagine have to come on blogs like this and try to pretend Morrison doesn’t lie. The upcoming campaign is going to be epic. Going to have to be a long campaign to fit in all the material.
Labor needs to work with the Greens as they do with all the other extreme groups.
The media could start asking Liberal MPs whether they are ambitious for Morrison. That might flush them out.
“Will Morrison’s successor be Joshie or the Potato, or will someone else come up from behind at the last minute?”
***
Well there has been some interesting movement in the betting markets in the last few days.
Compare these odds from the 16th of Nov…
…to these latest odds…
Dutton vs Albo has gone from $18 to $9 in the space of just a few days.
Laura Tingle..
https://twitter.com/mia__kennedy/status/1463073285554401284?s=21
Greens here still living in a fantasy world I see. The reality that the Greens refuse to acknowledge is that the ETS went a long way further than the electorate was prepared to go. That mistake has damaged Labor for years and will not be repeated.
“Labor needs to work with the Greens as they do with all the other extreme groups.”
***
Is that you, Rupert?
“Greens here still living in a fantasy world I see.”
***
No mate, we just don’t have our heads buried in the coal (sand) like Labor and the Coalition still do.
There was nothing wrong with the ETS. It is Tony Abbott and the Coalition who are on the wrong side of history, not the Greens.
Should Dutton take over as PM I would expect some very odd swings. Parochial Queenslanders in much of the state may swing to the Libs. But there may be a negative reaction in inner Brisbane putting Brisbane and Ryan in play. A swing from Liberal to Labor might also kybosh Max Chandler-Misogynist’s desperate run for the Greens in Griffith.
There would certianly be revulsion to Dutton in Victoria, South Australia and inner Sydney, but Western Sydney is harder to predict.
The key might be in Western Australia, where Dutton’s friendship with dear old Clive could be devastating.
And if pur Jacquie is already campaigning against the Libs in Braddon they’re probably gone for all money.
Now a documented fact – that Morrison denied using the term “Shanghai Sam” – is cast as a “claim”, of which Morrison is “unaware”. Lie, upon lie, upon lie. So many layers of deceit and doublespeak.
What he’s really saying is that if Labor questions his integrity, then he won’t respond. He’s claiming that anything anyone from Labor says is a falsehood, a whinge, or a whine, so he doesn’t need to answer.
Morrison looked really ragged and rattled today. You have to think the Libs are despairing. When will the resignations start up?
The only thing gratifying about all this is that predictions Morrison would go down in the same way he’s always gone down – as a result of arrogance, deceit, doublespeak, cronyism, lack of consultation, and outright bullshit – are coming true all over again.
Leopards and their spots come to mind.
Sally McManus: ” We do not have a labour shortage, but a wages and secure jobs shortage. Instead of addressing insecure work the government has chosen to slump back into systemic exploitation of temporary visa workers which has become a business model for entire sectors of the economy.”
https://www.smh.com.au/national/there-is-no-labor-shortage-just-a-properly-paid-job-shortage-20211122-p59b5u.html
Labor’s tactics seem somewhat undergraduate. Still I guess it appeals to the base on Twitter.
Much like yours.
Lars Von Trier says:
Tuesday, November 23, 2021 at 9:05 pm
Labor’s tactics seem somewhat undergraduate. Still I guess it appeals to the base on Twitter.
….And the news bulletins. The tactic only works because the Prime Minister is unable to stop lying.
BB,
Morrison is toast.
The question is who succeeds him and whether they want to expend their collateral now.
Hunt, Frydenberg and Dutton are all young enough to live on in hope of a future resurrection.
Balance that with the knowledge that the only reason the Libs exist is to be in office and you have an interesting conundrum for the ambitious candidates.
My guess is someone will have a ping, lose and be vindicated long term.
The Resolve Poll means its 50-50 if its accurate. The one looking over his shoulder will be Albo if its that close considering how tough things have been for the government lately. Ipsos was the only poll that got it close at the 2019 election and that was the SMH/Age as well.
So thinking about 2019. The liberals lost by winning.
If labor got in, they could have smashed em after two terms, maybe.
A 2007 outcome would be a nice night. I may have a drink over that.
But it’s not winning that matters, it’s what you do when you get there.
A backwards looking ICAC, royal commissions into the media. And lots of transparency.
I think a RC into robodebt, border force, and anywhere else they can get scomo to have to attend as a witness in a dock would be great.
Anyway, swapping out the speaker in the last two weeks of the year is messy. Ending on that sort of note really caps off the year.
OK Firefox (8.58pm and earlier,) I’ll bite…
There was legislation for the CPRS over a decade ago, not a scrap of paper as you’ve suggested. There was legislation, it was put to the Senate, Labor supported it (of course) a handful of Coalition Senators crossed the floor to support it, the Greens voted against, thus defeating it.
The CPRS may have had its flaws – although not to the extent that you’ve asserted (without independent evidence) – but the consequences of not passing it have been disastrous for the environment and Australian society.
Passing the CPRS would have been a major defeat for Abbott and enabled Rudd to deliver on action re ‘the greatest moral challenge’ of our age. Rudd may have been hard to work with, but he is a formidable campaigner and, armed with the CPRS and successfully navigating the GFC, would have defeated Abbott in 2010. So, no Abbott Prime Ministership and a blow to the hard-righters in the LNP.
Christine Milne argues (incorrectly) to this day that the CPRS was bad. Where are we now? Where has her attitude placed this nation?
The Greens voted the CPRS down out of spite.
On a separate, but related, matter, the WA Upper House has just been reformed to be democratic. It could have happened several terms ago, but the WA Greens voted with the Lib/Nats to prevent it.
The Greens have no greater purity than any other party.
The Resolve Poll is an outlier in the current crop. It is bouncing around within the margin of error (~ 2.5% for a poll size of ~ 1,600).
“A 2007 outcome would be a nice night. I may have a drink over that.”
***
It has been a long time between Iced VoVos, that’s for sure…
Debating the merits of the CPRS is a mugs game. It was never legislated, so we’ll never know.
What is incontrovertible however, is that the Greens had two options presented to them. Vote for the CPRS, or vote for no action on climate change.
The Greens chose to vote with Tony Abbott and the Liberals for no action on climate change.
The politics of impotent purity writ large.
The Greens. Fake progressives. Every one.
“There was legislation for the CPRS over a decade ago, not a scrap of paper as you’ve suggested. There was legislation, it was put to the Senate, Labor supported it (of course) a handful of Coalition Senators crossed the floor to support it, the Greens voted against, thus defeating it.”
***
You left out the part where Rudd refused to work with the Greens and tried to negotiate with the Coalition instead.
The Greens have been totally and utterly vindicated in their position.
You say that passing the CPRS would have been a major defeat for Abbott but ignore the reality that he never would have become opposition leader if it wasn’t for the CPRS in the first place! He knifed Turnbull because he was negotiating with Labor! Once that happened the CPRS was unimplementable.
Remember that every single time you defend the CPRS you are defending talking less action than the Coalition are now.
Labor would rather complain about their woeful CPRS that never happened than be proud of the Greens’ ETS which they implemented with us. It’s something you should be celebrating with us but instead you’re defending a mess of a policy that never made it through the parliament. It’s just absurd.
Being reported today in Murdoch organs, but 2 months old…
‘One in three voters say they are planning to flip their party loyalty at the next election with 11 per cent of Coalition voters planning to transition to Labor.
News Corp’s final exclusive survey of 4,010 voters shows 33 per cent of people who voted in the 2019 election are planning to switch parties ahead of next year’s election.
Labor voters showed the least sign of movement, with 85 per cent planning to support the party again, five per cent planning to switch to the Coalition while another three per cent would move to the Greens.
Of Labor’s voters, four per cent said they didn’t know who they would vote for.
There are worrying signs for the Coalition, with 74 per cent saying they will stick to the alliance and a whopping 11 per cent planning to switch to Labor. Seven per cent said they didn’t know who they would vote for.
Of the 4,010 surveyed, two per cent of those who voted for the Coalition and one per cent of Labor voters in 2019 say they intend to switch to Pauline Hanson’s One Nation party ahead of the coming election.
Only one per cent of Labor and Coalition voters said they would switch to Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party.
A majority of Greens voters (77 per cent) will be supporting the party again while 12 per cent are planning to switch to Labor, three per cent planning to vote for the Coalition.
while numbers for One Nation voters were low, 67 per cent said they were planning to stick to the party, with nine per cent planning to vote Labor, eight per cent the United Australia Party and seven per cent planning to switch to the Coalition.
The survey of 4,010 voters showed women (69 per cent) were more likely to be undecided than men (31 per cent).
The exclusive poll, carried out by Ergo Strategy for News Corp Australia, was conducted between September 10 and 23.
https://www.skynews.com.au/australia-news/politics/coalition-concerned-as-news-corp-poll-suggests-one-in-three-voters-planning-to-switch-parties-at-2022-election/news-story/5faee54b2f07b66cebf1c7d6149f76dd
The arrest apparently occurred near Arbuckle Junction, north east of Licola (and west of Dargo.)
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-11-23/man-arrested-victorian-missing-campers-russell-hill-carol-clay/100642224
Firefox, you can join the 12% of Greens voters abandoning them and voting ALP – how good would that be!
It wouldn’t take that much money to shift those odds. It was possibly as small as a couple hundred bucks. The bookies don’t offer juicy odds for long.
I know I was moving odds on WA seats at the state election with only a few hundred dollars. The algorithm that is being used has a maximum amount lost and thus they won’t take bets that will win a person more than a given amount.
I got 20 to 1 that ScoMo would last a few months ago with a different bookmaker.
Sprocket
99% of people who decide to change their lifestyle, get fit and run a marathon are bullshitting.
GG, it does seem an odd poll by some management consultants -commissioned by NewsCorp?
What message are they trying to send?
sprocket_ says:
Tuesday, November 23, 2021 at 9:37 pm
Firefox, you can join the 12% of Greens voters abandoning them and voting ALP – how good would that be!
_________
Having a leader from the Left it was probably bound to draw some support back to Labor. But 3 % of Labor voters say they are going to the Greens.
Aspen paid $45 million
Aspen paid $1.4 billion
These are the figures mentioned at the Coroner’s Court today
As only one provider of “surge staff” for Aged Care businesses under Federal government control
And these figures do not include what is paid by the Federal government in the normal course of these businesses operating
These were the figures paid to Aspen for the last resort provision of “surge staff”, fully trained and fit for purpose “surge staff”
So 0 out of 3
The $45 million equates to $1 million for each of the 45 deaths at the privately run Greek aged care business
And when the virus is rampant within the facility and the STATE CHO steps in and stands down the exposed staff, where were the “surge staff” the $45 million and $1.4 billion was remitted by the Federal government to Aspen?
JOBkeeper all over again
Just give tax payer money to business
Can do capitalism
What connections did Aspen and/or those engaged by it to promote its business have to the Liberal Party?
I would trust that the Balance Sheet and the Profit and Loss Accounts of Aspen and of the Greek proprietor of the Aged Care business are made public during this Inquiry
So we can see where tax payer money is going to (once again)
Who the “lifters” and the “leaners” are on the public purse
That CPRS sure is a breach in the space time continuum for some Laborites
It’s really like a continually running re-run of that first Dr Who episode, only truly shit
A really shit and horrifying episode of the twilight zone perhaps, that none of them can escape from?
It’s just a rotting corpse now, I really don’t think digging it up and whipping it anymore will help.
Actually Christine Milne was recently reflecting on the 10 year anniversary of the passing of the Clean Energy Act, of Nov 2011, in the Australian parliament and the efforts that have been able to continue due to the CEFC and ARENA also established as part of the Greens, Indies deal to support the Gillard Labor government. Reflecting on it with Adam Bandt and Will Steffen, who were in the room at the time, the latter being one of the first members of the Climate Change Authority also established at the time as an independent authority of experts to provide scientific data and advice on what was required to deal with climate change. Rather than just political BS.
They are now of course the Climate Council, which has continued with public donations despite being cancelled by Abbott. They continue to provide data and scientific advice to public debates on climate change and now include such folks as Greg Mullins and emergency leaders for climate change.
Pity that both Lib and Labor parties continue to wallow in their political BS and shadow play about climate and ignore the Climate Council advice for better targets and ending new coal and gas. The donors in the fossil fuel industry sure have been getting quite a return on their investment in buying the Lib and Labor party’s out.
Ten years and five days ago now since Clean Energy Bill gained assent
https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Bills_Legislation/bd/bd1112a/12bd068
In this documentation on background for the Clean Energy Bill there is actual commentary on pre-election policies, no price on carbon for ALP according to this , but was for the Greens
2010 election policies
In the lead up to the 2010 federal election, the ALP policy position was to support a range of measures to address carbon emissions including the establishment of emissions standards for power stations, encouraging early action to reduce emissions ahead of an emissions market and encouraging the connection of renewable energy sources.[6]
When directly asked during the election campaign about the introduction of a carbon tax, the Prime Minister noted:
There will be no carbon tax under the government I lead. What we will do is tackle the challenge of climate change. We have invested record amounts in solar and renewable technologies. I want to build the transmission lines that will bring back clean green energy into the national average is the grid. I also want to make sure that we have no more dirty coal-fired power stations and make sure we tried greener cars and word from greener buildings. I will deliver those things and lead a national debate to reach a consensus about putting a cap on carbon pollution.[7]
The Coalition reiterated their opposition to an emissions trading scheme in the lead-up to the 2010 federal election, and proposed a range of ‘direct action’ measures that would purchase emissions reduction activity from business and industry, including incentives for the oldest and most inefficient power stations to reduce their emissions ‘in an orderly manner’.[8] The Coalition also proposed a range of expenditure measures aimed at boosting renewable energy production and use, harnessing soil carbons and expanding the use of solar energy in homes.[9]
The Australian Greens’ position prior to the 2010 federal election was to implement a gradual and long term shift in the tax system from work‑based taxes to taxes on natural resources and pollution including:
a carbon tax levied on generators of mains-supplied electricity or gas
a national carbon trading scheme, and
other ecological taxes and charges at a level sufficient that their prices reflect the full environmental cost of their production, use or disposal.[10]
‘Labor voters showed the least sign of movement, with 85 per cent planning to support the party again, five per cent planning to switch to the Coalition while another three per cent would move to the Greens.’
mundo was one of the 5
Is 3% of Labor voters going to the Greens a greater number than 12% of Green voters going to Labor?
“Firefox, you can join the 12% of Greens voters abandoning them and voting ALP – how good would that be!”
***
Tell Murdoch he’s dreamin’, Sprockets!
There’s about as much chance of me playing full-forward for the Western Bulldogs as there is of that happening. 😉
sprocket
“Firefox, you can join the 12% of Greens voters abandoning them and voting ALP – how good would that be!”
I get the sense that Firefox is wavering, and about to jump ship from the Greens to Labor. The last straw was SHY’s utterly futile and self-aggrandising trip to Comic-con…. I mean COP21.
Just wondering what sort of question got this response?
“ Of Labor’s voters, four per cent said they didn’t know who they would vote for.”
Greens still chicken who votes against Labor.
OMG, I finally come back onto the blog and there’s Quoll with yet another scrollworthy, yawnworthy diatribe against ‘Laborites’. With added abuse sprinkled literally throughout the ‘contribution’.
Give the dog a bone, Quoll. Your schtick is as stale as 3 day old bread.
Firefox:
“Labor needs to work with the Greens much more instead of constantly teaming up with the Coalition. “…
Huh?…. Surely you are not a member of the “Libs and Labs are just the same” mob, are you?…
Labor must attract the majority of voters to their policies, and also offer policies that respond to the needs of the majority of voters…. That’s how you win government and from government you introduce your policies…. and through those policies you change the country…. This is always true, but it’s even truer in a system of compulsory voting.