Past time for a new thread, though inevitably given the time of year there is not a lot to report. Polling fans might care to take note of Mark the Ballot’s latest update of a poll aggregate that tracks a three-point increase in the “others” vote over the past six months of last year, which came cleanly at the expense of the Coalition, and a neat display of pollster house effects that calibrates what close observers will have already noticed: that Resolve Strategic is (relatively speaking) high for “others” and low for Labor, Essential Research is high for both major parties, and Roy Morgan is high for the Greens.
Then there’s the New South Wales state by-elections, which deserves a thread of its own but won’t get one until the date is formally announced. The Speaker, Jonathan O’Dea, has strongly indicated it will be February 12. A milestone was reached last week when four of the departing MPs finally lodged their formal resignations. Not among them was Holsworthy MP Melanie Gibbons holding out until she is confirmed as the federal candidate for Hughes, if indeed that occurs. That leaves:
Strathfield (Labor 5.0%): Both parties now have candidates in place for the seat being vacated by Jodi McKay. Labor’s is Jason Yat-Sen Li, a former lawyer who worked for a time for the International Criminal Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia and is now executive chairman of Vantage Asia Holdings. Yat-Sen Li was Labor’s candidate for Bennelong in 2013 third on the Senate ticket in 2019. The Liberal candidate is Bridget Sakr, who has gained prominence as a victims support advocate after her daughter and three of her cousins were killed in a car crash in Oatlands in February last year.
Bega (Liberal 6.9%): The Liberal candidate to succeed Andrew Constance is Fiona Kotvojs, a beef farmer who has twice been narrowly unsuccessful as the Liberal candidate for Eden-Monaro: in 2019, when she fell 0.8% short of unseating Mike Kelly, and at the by-election following Kelly’s retirement in July 2020, when Kristy McBain retained the seat for Labor by 0.4%. Labor’s candidate is Michael Holland, an obstetrician-gynaecologist at Moruya District Hospital and lecturer at the Australian National University medical school.
Monaro (Nationals 11.6%): The Nationals have had their candidate to succeed John Barilaro in place since October: Nichole Overall, a local historian, communications consultant and freelance writer. Conversely, Labor initially planned to forfeit before a rebellion by local party branches prompted a change of heart.
Willoughby (Liberal 21.0%): The Liberals are yet to conduct a preselection that has attracted three candidates: Willoughby mayor Gail Giles-Gidney, who is reportedly backed by Gladys Berejiklian, Paul Fletcher and Andrew Bragg; former television journalist Kellie Sloane, who is backed by Mike Baird; and Menzies Research Centre executive general manager Tim James, a factional conservative. Labor will not contest the seat, and in the absence of a strong independent emerging, of which I’ve seen no indication, the winner should have an easy time of it.
C@tmomma @ #48 Thursday, January 6th, 2022 – 8:19 am
What’s Roger done?
Sprocket where are you? People are going off piste – what is the official party line re Novax? Thanks
Just heard that Djokovic’s visa has been revoked. Bloody good job.
Paul Karp
@Paul_Karp
·
19m
If any of Novak’s team are reading this, the way to handle a Border Force crisis is: apologise, apply for the correct visa, do not complain you are detained, do not let your dad on breakfast TV, do not threaten to take your protest to the streets. Just FYI.
Paul Karp
@Paul_Karp
·
4m
Update: it’s not that he had wrong visa, it’s that he failed to provide appropriate evidence of his claim for medical exemption.
This from ABF:
Is this war?
https://www.smh.com.au/environment/conservation/2000-for-an-hour-zoo-s-offers-to-impress-guests-with-koalas-in-homes-hotels-20220105-p59m2q.html
A Central Coast zoo has been criticised by conservation groups for offering to rent out animals for thousands of dollars to people wanting to pet them in the comfort of their hotels or homes.
The Australian Reptile Park posted on its website, on a page that has since been taken down, that the opportunity would allow people to “impress guests at your event with a cuddly koala”.
While on the brink of destruction?
Looks like there was no Federal/State fix re Novax given the visa cancellation. This will get interesting now.
This guy is a Barrister so he’s not making stuff up:
Michael Springer
@MichaelSpring17
·
1m
The Fed Govt issues visas. A visa typically takes between 1 month to 3 months, sometimes quicker, to issue depending on its class. Before the Bruhaha yesterday, the Morrison Govt had already issued a visa to Novak Djokovic. #ScottyThePathologicalLiar tried to mislead Australia yesterday.
Bulldust says:
Thursday, January 6, 2022 at 8:25 am
Just heard that Djokovic’s visa has been revoked. Bloody good job.
—————————–
Border force and the federal government should not have given him the ok, to arrive in Australia the first place
border force has the authority to stop international arrivals from boarding the plane to Australia
What is Serbia gonna fight with? Tennis Players and Tennis Balls?
Serbian President quoted as saying:
“The Victorian Government promised him (Novak) everything was fixed. I don’t think, I know it is so”
No. One. Is. Above. The. Law.
Simples.
Thanks for the roundup BK. On this story:
“Elective surgery has been halted again as pressure mounts on Victoria’s hospitals, ambulances and testing systems amid escalating Omicron infections.”
https://www.theage.com.au/national/hospitals-are-being-crippled-elective-surgery-halted-as-health-system-strains-under-pressure-20220105-p59m1j.html
SA public hospitals stopped elective surgery (again) two weeks ago.
Between impacts on public health treatments (ful hospitals) and supermarkets (empty shelves) the failure of federal policy on Omicron will soon start to bite in middle Australia.
Sprocket where are you? People are going off piste – what is the official party line re Novax? Thanks
Going off pissed? It’s far too early, surely.
Anyway, the same rules apply to Novax as to everyone else seeking entry to Australi. If he has failed to meet them then he shouldn’t come in.
Lars Von Triersays:
Thursday, January 6, 2022 at 8:29 am
See? The Victorian Government never did such thing, Scumo tried to play politians with the anti-vaxxors and anti-shitheads.
Lars.
Lars
If you look at what Daniel Andrews originally said, it was that the Victorian government wouldn’t apply for an exemption for Djokovic (which, at the time, was necessary as there was some kind of quota).
The Victorian government has since been asked (according to Pulford) at least three times to support his visa and refused.
They were then asked again (as he was in transit to Australia) whether they supported his entry and again refused.
This all suggests that the independent process was (as reported) well and truly hand’s off, and as soon as the Victorian government was in a position to over ride it, they did.
Everyone MUST exercise personal responsibility when it comes to their decision about whether or not to proceed with elective surgery.
Cos King RATs said so.
Poor Lars Von Trier got excited , when it was always the Federal government who had the authority for Australia’s international borders , the states/territories have no say in visas
Lars,
He would say that wouldn’t he. I knew you were going to point out that it was impossible because Victoria does not control Borders or Visas. Obviously, Djokovic misunderstood.
Mundo 8.18
Yes Mundo, I posted during the interview and before Albo finally overcame her rudeness and she gave up and let him have a fair go
starting with a “coalition bad, ALP great” prism and backfilling everything with that prism in mind to all events… certainly the modus here amongst too many and non-applicable to the general public who simply dont hold this prism.
Victoria is just as culpable as NSW, arguably even more so as they are a slightly behind what looks like the same curve and have the benefit of staring down that barrel… and are doing precisely nothing different except leading on RAT provision (which is identification not management of the problem). This mass infection gamble relying on vaccination seems to be bipartisan policy except in WA.
Holding ScoMo et al responsible for this Djokovic debacle is ridiculous. If he ends up getting deported and that reflects the desirable sentiments of most australians (as looks the case), the feds are more likely to get the credit not the blame!
No support for Perrotet/ScoMo decisions especially in the last 3 weeks here, but Andrews is immaterially better. They’ve all made a mess of this.
Lars Von Trier says:
Thursday, January 6, 2022 at 8:29 am
Serbian President quoted as saying:
“The Victorian Government promised him (Novak) everything was fixed. I don’t think, I know it is so”
That for sure was the Line the State and Federal Liberals were trying on.
What I like about this “fix” they turned into a “problem”. The State government asked for the request for support to be in writing before refusing it. The incompetent federal government now can’t even deny they attempted to pass the buck.
It would seem there is not a corner of our society that is not fed up with their duplicity.
Amy, definitely no, ‘Coalition Bad, Labor Good’ person, gets the angle of attack humourously on point:
Amy Remeikis
@AmyRemeikis
·
6m
Wait until they find out how we treat asylum seekers 😐
AFP News Agency
@AFP
#BREAKING Serbia president accuses Australia of “maltreatment” of Novak Djokovic
There must be links between Tennis Australia and the Fed Govt, but neither of them have any credibility this morning.
Pulford must be doing very well if the moron army is trying to type her downfall this am.
Look, if this Visa situation exposes the way our Border Force works on a wider level that so be it, that it stops an entitled dickhead from coming into the country as well it’s a bonus
Comment in the SMH article about Navax…
Scrooge
1 HOUR AGO
I can’t wait to see this episode of Border Security when it plays on Channel 7 … it’ll be a ratings winner!
Expat Follower says:
Thursday, January 6, 2022 at 8:37 am
Holding ScoMo et al responsible for this Djokovic debacle is ridiculous. If he ends up getting deported and that reflects the desirable sentiments of most australians (as looks the case), the feds are more likely to get the credit not the blame!
———————-
The federal government conceded it was them who can only allow International Arrivals in Australia not Victorian government
Pistol, Boo and Djoko: three Coalition unicorns.
Morning Socrates:
Your costing exercise is bogus.
1. The Naval Group proposal involved all costs involved in the design, development, construction and technology transfer associated with a 12 sub build over a 50 year period. It is based on an estimate of value of the Australian dollar at the time various gateways were reached and money was transferred over that period.
2. The actual ‘float away’ cost of each unit in the Attack class – in 2016 dollar value – is actually less than $1.5 billion.
3. The program cost for the Suffren class of 6 boats – expressed in 2014 monetary values – is €11 billion (approximately $A17.6 billion), but did not include a price for the transfer of technology (it already being the proprietary interest of Naval Group and France), the additional cost of incorporating American technology (the combat system and weapons) or the cost of building a brand new shipyard, and the cost of training a new workforce effectively from scratch.
4. The Attack class contract was for 12 boats and did include all those other costs. Therefore the $A36 billion contract (2016 dollars) ‘for the lot’ was actually in line with both the Suffren class (altogether it’s float away costs were about $A300-500 million cheaper per unit – in 2016 dollars – than the French SSN – which was €1.32 billion in 2014 Euros). It was also in line with the $25 billion that R-A Sean Costello costed out for a 12 boat build in 2009 using the German Type 212 as the design reference (in 2009 dollars).
5. The costs you quoted for both the Astute and various Virginia Class boats appear to be ‘float away’ unit costs, and one does not know what ‘extras’, if any, are included in those figures. The Astute appears to be a low ball figure – probably based on the fact that it is expressed in a fairly old currency value. Neither include design, development, technology transfer (Newsflash – under either AUKUS proposal there won’t be any technology transfer, so we we are fucked straight off the bat), shipyard construction cost, or personnel training costs.
If you include all the costs associated with the development of a CAPABILITY (which is what Sea 1000 – leading to the Attack Class contract actually DID) then I strongly suspect that your so-called price differentials would be radically differnt that’s what you suggest.
Surprisingly, you seem to think the process is akin to a company fleet manager whipping down to the local Toyota dealer and using the corporate credit card to pick up a dozen Hiluxes. In reality – if done correctly – acquiring an new submarine capability is actually more akin to purchasing an entire Toyota factory, with workforce, and taking out an equity stake in the company. Or, if we want a more accurate analogy, taking out an equity stake in SpaceX, getting them to build us the equivalent of their factory, with trained workforce, NASA’s mission control space centre in Huston and the Cape Canaveral launch facility and then getting a dozen spaceships with trained astronauts and ground crew at the end of that process.
Morning Socrates:
Your costing exercise is bogus.
1. The Naval Group proposal involved all costs involved in the design, development, construction and technology transfer associated with a 12 sub build over a 50 year period. It is based on an estimate of value of the Australian dollar at the time various gateways were reached and money was transferred over that period.
2. The actual ‘float away’ cost of each unit in the Attack class – in 2016 dollar value – is actually less than $1.5 billion.
3. The program cost for the Suffren class of 6 boats – expressed in 2014 monetary values – is €11 billion (approximately $A17.6 billion), but did not include a price for the transfer of technology (it already being the proprietary interest of Naval Group and France), the additional cost of incorporating American technology (the combat system and weapons) or the cost of building a brand new shipyard, and the cost of training a new workforce effectively from scratch.
4. The Attack class contract was for 12 boats and did include all those other costs. Therefore the $A36 billion contract (2016 dollars) ‘for the lot’ was actually in line with both the Suffren class (altogether it’s float away costs were about $A300-500 million cheaper per unit – in 2016 dollars – than the French SSN – which was €1.32 billion in 2014 Euros). It was also in line with the $25 billion that R-A Sean Costello costed out for a 12 boat build in 2009 using the German Type 212 as the design reference (in 2009 dollars).
5. The costs you quoted for both the Astute and various Virginia Class boats appear to be ‘float away’ unit costs, and one does not know what ‘extras’, if any, are included in those figures. The Astute appears to be a low ball figure – probably based on the fact that it is expressed in a fairly old currency value. Neither include design, development, technology transfer (Newsflash – under either AUKUS proposal there won’t be any technology transfer, so we we are fucked straight off the bat), shipyard construction cost, or personnel training costs.
If you include all the costs associated with the development of a CAPABILITY (which is what Sea 1000 – leading to the Attack Class contract actually DID) then I strongly suspect that your so-called price differentials would be radically differnt that’s what you suggest.
Surprisingly, you seem to think the process is akin to a company fleet manager whipping down to the local Toyota dealer and using the corporate credit card to pick up a dozen Hiluxes. In reality – if done correctly – acquiring an new submarine capability is actually more akin to purchasing an entire Toyota factory, with workforce, and taking out an equity stake in the company. Or, if we want a more accurate analogy, taking out an equity stake in SpaceX, getting them to build us the equivalent of their factory, with trained workforce, NASA’s mission control space centre in Huston and the Cape Canaveral launch facility and then getting a dozen spaceships with trained astronauts and ground crew at the end of that process.
The Feds have had to own it:
Gavin Coote (ABC journo)
@GavinCoote
·
10m
Greg Hunt: “ABF can confirm that Mr Djokovic failed to provide appropriate evidence to meet the entry requirements to Australia and the visa has been subsequently cancelled”
I can see a few broken tennis rackets on the flight home for the Joker. 😀
Possibly too late in Australia, but worth some policy analysis. France is leveling the playing field between Amazon and local booksellers.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/01/bookshops-thrive-as-france-moves-to-protect-sellers-from-amazon?CMP=fb_gu&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook&fbclid=IwAR0g2KLB2un5FY8nORpFg2Te3-8KGHQ-wBf5niPNl3uOQHRqjkuooMIRVRY#Echobox=1635777800
Expat Follower
The problem with your analysis. Before it all turned to shit, Morrison was running around shouting freedom, freedom. He wanted to claim full responsibility for the end of restrictions. Did you note no-one got in his way. He wanted it, he got it.
Not smart enough to pre-order the RATS, not smart enough to share the risk.
Scott: “The federal government conceded it was them who can only allow International Arrivals in Australia not Victorian government”
yeah – and they going to be the ones who do not allow Novak to enter the country despite Tennis Australia and the Vic govt seemingly endorsing his medical exemption…
Who does the Djokovic cancellation of Visa saga look better for? The Feds or the Vic state government?
Good summary of Djokovic matter from the BBc.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1478840925942161410
I can’t see how the federal government can get any credit from the Novax incident as they were the ones who so obviously played politics with it from the get go and attempted to ascribe responsibility to the Andrews government when Border Control and Visas were their responsibility all along.
Well GG – if Djokovic ends up getting deported – presumably he will dump on and name names about who in the Vic Govt promised him it was ok to come to Melbourne?
It could get really ugly.
Yesterday and today distraction for the Lib/nats and their corrupt propaganda media units to look away from the rapid antigen test and lack of vaccine/Boosters backfired politically badly on them
When our fossil fuel and coal exports are finished and when China has finished cutting of its imports of education and tourism services Australia will not be able to afford a rowboat.
What is it that analysts don’t understand that we cannot have separate military and economic hegemons?
Meanwhile, Elmer crunches the numbers.
Mark the Ballot’s latest update of a poll aggregate of voting intentions from October 2019 -October 2021 shows a 6% PV swing against the Coalition (36.9%) and the spoils being shared by Labor (up 3.2 to 36.5%) and Others (not the Greens).
History shows a 4 to 6.0% PV swing against an incumbent Government has resulted in a landslide defeat.
When Howard won in 1996, Labor’s PV fell almost 6 percent from 44.9 to 38.8 %. Labor lost 31 seats.
When Rudd won in 2007, Labor’s PV improved almost 6% from 37.6 to 43.4 %, gaining 22 seats.
When Abbott won in 2013, Labor’s PV fell 4.6 % from 38.0 to 33.4% and Labor lost 17 seats.
Labor’s PV only improved 1.3% in 2016, but Labor gained 14 seats because the Coalition lost 3.5% of the PV overall and had worse results in some of the seats Labor gained.
Labor’s PV fell 1.3% to 33.4 in 2019, but the net loss was only 1 seat with the Coalition PV slipping 0.60 %
This history indicates a big 4-6 % PV swing (1996, 2007,2013) against an incumbent can produce a landslide defeat. If the 6% PV swing against the Coalition recorded in Mark The Graph’s voter intention research stands up on election day, the Coalition can expect a resounding defeat.
The 25% of voters intending to vote for parties other than the Coalition or Labor in 2022 in Marks research is pretty much equivalent to 2019 when it was 25.2 %.
The bottom line is Labor’s PV does not have to reach the heady heights of previous landslide victory of 2007 (43.4 %) to win the 2022 election, gaining 14 seats in 2016 with a PV of only 34.7%.
Go get em Albo, it’s your’e shout mate.
It seems to me that the Victorian government were misled by Tennis Australia about the validity of Novak Djokovic’s medical exemption. I clearly remember an interview Craig Tiley, TA CEO, did the other day where he claimed with a straight face that Djokovic’s medical exemption satisfied the requirements.
Now, either he was lying, or he was misled by the federal government, who are the ones responsible for granting medical exemptions to enter the country.
As the barrister, Michael Springer pointed out this morning, visas are granted, by the federal government, from 1-3 months before arrival into the country.
Therefore the medical exemption would have had to be canvassed by the Djokovic team with a federal government officer at least that far back.
Heard some coalition supporters on radio claiming , Border force and federal government the ones who control Australia’s International borders and by allowing Djokovic to get on the plane and land in Australia
They decided that its the final nail for them to decide the federal lib/nats under Morrison are toast
They are calling for the libs to replace Morrison before the upcoming federal election
Lars,
Speaking of the Uglies and given your close personal ties to the Liberal party in NSW, do you think there will be a number of Croatian heavyweights that dominate the LNP quietly smiling in their coffee this morning? Do you think they have put an oar in to make this Serbian embarrassment happen?
“They are calling for the libs to replace Morrison before the upcoming federal election”
I think they will, it has been a winning strategy so far, they toss a complete tosser, put in someone worse and Australia duly elects the new tosser based on total lies.
Vic Health is not the Vic Govt..
Anyway, the right decision has been made, let’s now wait for the fallout, will be interesting.
“It seems to me that the Victorian government were misled by Tennis Australia about the validity of Novak Djokovic’s medical exemption. I clearly remember an interview Craig Tiley, TA CEO, did the other day where he claimed with a straight face that Djokovic’s medical exemption satisfied the requirements.
Now, either he was lying, or he was misled by the federal government, who are the ones responsible for granting medical exemptions to enter the country.
As the barrister, Michael Springer pointed out this morning, visas are granted, by the federal government, from 1-3 months before arrival into the country.
Therefore the medical exemption would have had to be canvassed by the Djokovic team with a federal government officer at least that far back.”
Cat you probably won’t like that we are in fierce agreement but we are. I think the most likely explanation is that Tennis Australia and the Federal Govt were trying to snooker the Vic Govt to both cave in and let the guy play and to take the public backlash, with the help of the media.
That kind of dishonest lowbrow attack supported by the press is how he got preselection in the first place.
Novak Djokovic’s visa has been cancelled and his Australian Open campaign is in tatters. The tennis star was told to leave the country today but reports suggest he may challenge the decision in Victoria’s courts.
“Vic Health is not the Vic Govt..
Anyway, the right decision has been made, let’s now wait for the fallout, will be interesting.”
Yes 100% credit to the Victorian Govt for making the right decision and avoiding the shits sandwich Morrison (and I presume without direct evidence, Tennis Australia) tried to feed them.
WeWantPaul says:
Thursday, January 6, 2022 at 8:54 am
I think they will, it has been a winning strategy so far, they toss a complete tosser, put in someone worse and Australia duly elects the new tosser based on total lies.
——————————————————–
Surely it will not work this time