Morgan: 56-44 to Labor

A second pollster emerges to suggest the summer break has done little to improve the situation for the Morrison government.

Roy Morgan has become the second pollster to emerge from the summer break, maintaining its recent form in crediting Labor with a 56-44 two-party lead, out from 55.5-44.5 in the previous poll. As before, this is souped up by a much stronger flow of respondent-allocated preferences than Labor managed at the 2019 election. Both the Coalition and Labor are steady on the primary vote, at 34.5% and 37% respectively, with the Greens up half a point to 12% (strong support for the Greens being another feature of the Morgan series). One Nation is down a point to 3% and Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party is steady on all of half of a point, whereas it managed 3.4% in 2019.

The “previous poll” used for the basis of comparison here wasn’t actually published at the time, as noted by a keen-eyed observer on Twitter. Morgan’s last published poll from last year was from the last weekend in November and the first weekend in December, whereas the results tables on the website include a further result for the two weeks subsequently.

The state two-party breakdowns credit Labor with leads of 58-42 in New South Wales, a swing of around 10%; 59-41 in Victoria, a swing of around 6%; 51-49 in Western Australia, a swing of around 6.5%; 60.5-39.5 in South Australia, a swing of around 10%; and 60.5-39.5 in Tasmania, a swing of around 4.5%. However, the poll has the Coalition ahead 51.5-48.5 in Queensland, which is still a swing to Labor of around 7%. Whereas Morgan’s past polling combined results from two weekends, here we are told that polling was conducted between January 4 and 16.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,089 comments on “Morgan: 56-44 to Labor”

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  1. Boerwar

    “Australia as a state has only existed since 1901.”
    ————
    We need a different (Aboriginal) term for the land as “Country” in the Aboriginal sense.

  3. Asha @ #2714 Wednesday, January 26th, 2022 – 10:28 am

    Hmm, anyone know how to make text Bold on here? The standard HTML tags don’t seem to work, at least when in blockquotes.

    <b>bold works <\b>

    I don’t use block quotes.

  5. I hope not too many on PB and elsewhere believe Morrison had no idea of the identity of Australian of the year.
    Things just don’t work that way and certainly not with the “control” PM.
    This year’s choice of the Australian of the year is just one of a conga line of “try me” with the public that has been the pattern from the Morrison mob from day one.
    Australia Day Eve and Grace Tame was a “try me” gone horribly wrong.
    Advertisers always try a few”test me” try outs before committing to the go ahead campaign.
    At this stage before an election, the LNP have positioned themselves as “desperate”.

  6. ItzaDream @ Wednesday, January 26, 2022 at 12:02 pm

    It is a curious coincidence that Burns and Woolf share the same birthday. In light of current events, the article from several years ago deserved posting 😉

  7. ItzaDream

    like the term first peoples.
    ———
    Yes, I agree.

    “First Nations” seems so contrary to my understanding of Aboriginal society and relationship to land. The Nation State (at least in Europe) is such an imperialistic concept.

  8. As soon as I saw Dylan Alcott was the nominee I was sure he was going to get the award. He ticks so many boxes (in a good way):

    – outstanding sportsperson at the end of their sporting career
    – overcame disability to be a major achiever
    – widely known, liked and respected and has a TV presence
    – high standard activist who has done much for his area of activism
    – role model

    You could probably add a few more qualifications, but you get the drift. He could almost have been created for the award. And full marks for the Australia Day Committee for not being cowed by the conservatives by appointing another outspoken activist.

  10. I am curious as to why the latest Essential Report does not include any voting data.

    https://essentialreport.com.au/

    There are some fairly dire numbers in there for the Government, especially with repsect to current issues and whether they would make people more likely or less likely to vote for the Government.

  11. Asha,

    Good question!

    Hmm, anyone know how to make text Bold on here? The standard HTML tags don’t seem to work, at least when in blockquotes.

    Inline style tags get stripped, so that won’t work…

  12. This photo was taken amongst bushfire hit community in NSW South Coast in January 2020, barely 2 years ago.

    As at today:

    – Smirko making the most of his remaining term, lurching from one debacle to the next humiliation, totally oblivious to his behaviour
    – GladysB quit as Premier due to DarrylGate
    – Gareth Ward, State Liberal Member for Kiama, who was found naked and disoriented outside a Potts Point unit
    – Shane Fitzsimmons just awarded an AO, and head of Resilience NSW

  14. Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #2729 Wednesday, January 26th, 2022 – 11:55 am

    Oh no!!!

    Steely won’t be happy.

    Alcott already criticising Government policy.

    Dylan Alcott: Australian of the Year calls for people with disability to be given free rapid antigen tests
    Alcott’s call follows Coalition’s decision to allow NDIS participants to dip into their core funding to buy the devices

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/jan/26/dylan-alcott-australian-of-the-year-calls-for-people-with-disability-to-be-given-free-rapid-antigen-tests

    The Morrison government always gets their decisions wrong.
    1. Make NDIS participants dip into their funds for RATs.
    2. Dylan Alcott made AOTY. 😆

  16. Morrison’s daughter might have written that bit of patriotic poetry but who knows? It would have looked a lot more authentic if he had allowed her to read it out aloud with appropriate patriotic feeling. However that wouldn’t happen of course, as he is such a control freak and his family are just there as stage props.

  20. All I’ll add to the Grace Tame imbroglio is that, if Scott Morrison wanted to remind women why they shouldn’t vote for him then yesterday’s performance was the best way to do it. Plus the pile on by, *checks notes*, other powerful men.

  22. Clickbait Heading from SkyNews..

    Anthony Albanese defends snubbing Scott Morrison at Australia Day ceremony

    And what did actually happen?

    Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese refused to shake Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s hand during the National Flag Raising and Citizenship Ceremony in Canberra.
    Mr Morrison was joined by his Labor counterpart as well as the Governor-General and some of the Australian of the Year winners to kick off Wednesday’s proceedings.

    But the Opposition Leader was caught rejecting the Prime Minister’s offer of a handshake which raised questions amongst reporters.

    Asked whether his Prime Ministerial snub was a “deliberate stunt”, Mr Albanese said: “No, I haven’t shaken anyone’s hand today”.

    “And the health advice is to not shake hands.”

    https://www.skynews.com.au/australia-news/politics/anthony-albanese-defends-snubbing-scott-morrison-at-australia-day-ceremony/news-story/06449f6b552eb3927ee179aa60950ee8

  25. “Labor leader Anthony Albanese, who also attended today’s official Australia Day ceremony in Canberra, also side-stepped questions about Ms Tame’s conduct.

    Grace Tame doesn’t need my advice and she doesn’t need, with respect, your advice either,” Mr Albanese said.

    “Grace Tame is a courageous Australian. I think she did a great job as Australian of the Year. I’m sure Dylan Alcott will also do a great job as the Australian of the Year.””

    Albo gets the tone right. 🙂

    One thing about him, he seems to know when to not avoid, but low key an issue and let his opponent run with serial fwark ups. 🙂

    Having watched the NPC session on YouTube last night..short version…Ablo absolutely nailed it.

    Apparently Morriscum gets his exposure next week and as of now is on notice that Albo is a pretty hard act to follow and seems to be taking on some of the issues that the Libs will want to run scare campaigns about head on.

    Its obvious that the Libs will and are going to run heavy on the “secret taxes after the election” thing. That will play well to their rusted on’s but but i don’t think the “uncertainty under Labor” thing will get them over the line this time. They have no plans and what they have put up over the last couple of years they largely have not followed through on. Something directly emphasized in Albo’s NPC session.

    Libs shallowness is well on display in the run up to an election. 🙂

    Say, anybody following the betting odds and know if they have moved recently??

  26. sprocket_ @ #2770 Wednesday, January 26th, 2022 – 12:58 pm

    Clickbait Heading from SkyNews..

    Anthony Albanese defends snubbing Scott Morrison at Australia Day ceremony

    And what did actually happen?

    Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese refused to shake Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s hand during the National Flag Raising and Citizenship Ceremony in Canberra.
    Mr Morrison was joined by his Labor counterpart as well as the Governor-General and some of the Australian of the Year winners to kick off Wednesday’s proceedings.

    But the Opposition Leader was caught rejecting the Prime Minister’s offer of a handshake which raised questions amongst reporters.

    Asked whether his Prime Ministerial snub was a “deliberate stunt”, Mr Albanese said: “No, I haven’t shaken anyone’s hand today”.

    “And the health advice is to not shake hands.”

    https://www.skynews.com.au/australia-news/politics/anthony-albanese-defends-snubbing-scott-morrison-at-australia-day-ceremony/news-story/06449f6b552eb3927ee179aa60950ee8

    Trying to create a reverse ferret Mark Latham/John Howard handshake moment I see.

  30. They sound like a real tag team:

    The 2022 Australian of the Year Dylan Alcott has paid tribute to his predecessor and friend, Grace Tame, telling ABC News Breakfast she had left “big shoes” for him to fill.

    “Tame is a weapon. Like, she’s fierce and I love that, and the change that she’s had for her cause has been so impressive,” Mr Alcott said.

    “She set the bar high and they’re big shoes to fill. So I hope I can do it justice, that’s for sure.”

    Mr Alcott called out the outgoing Australian of the Year in his acceptance speech as well, promising to uphold an agreement the pair made once he completes the Australian Open competition.

    “Tame, you are fierce and I love it,” he said.

    “You have done so much for your cause and, if I could be one-eighth of the Australian of the Year that you were, I think I’ve done my job.

    “When I won the US Open, I skolled a beer out of my trophy and you said, ‘If I got to pass the mantle over to this guy, I’d be honoured. But we have to skoll the beer together’. Give me a couple of days and then we can do it. Not just yet.”

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-01-26/dylan-alcott-on-taking-the-aoty-baton-from-grace-tame/100782216

  32. Australia has only been a state, or more accurately, a federation of states since 1901.
    Recorded history in this land only stretches back at most a few hundred years.
    But we know from scientific studies that Aboriginal occupancy goes back at least 65,000 years. Aboriginal culture and folklore are not recorded history, but they are reflections of long established human occupancy and this is further reflected in the strong ties indigenous people have to land.
    The Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people calling themselves First Nations and having their own flags are political and cultural adaptations to the fact that settler cultures have long overwhelmed their own.
    All of this means that indigenous people’s long occupancy of this country should be acknowledged and respected. Indigenous political organisation in their now-changed country should also be respected and not derided as somehow imitating European imperialist concepts.

  33. “Tame, you are fierce and I love it,” he said.”

    So, an Australian of the year speaking something all Australians can relate to.

    Morriscum, cak thy daks.

  34. Griff @ #2776 Wednesday, January 26th, 2022 – 1:06 pm

    C@tmomma @ Wednesday, January 26, 2022 at 1:04 pm

    There is certainly one politician having trouble with handshakes. A serial offender.

    Yes, ‘interesting’ how Morrison is so transgressive. He wants to bust all the health advice to pieces. And, it seems, lure other prominent individuals to make that transgression with him. I’m glad that Albanese was hip to his tricks.

  35. Honestly, it was probably a trap that Morrison had laid for Albanese and was hoping he’d fall into. Thank goodness Albanese thought quickly enough to not fall into it.

  37. Although he would be truly deserving of the honour of AotY, I’m glad Patty Mills won’t have to put up with what Adam Goodes copped.

  41. Libby Coker MP

    I am extremely concerned about the current threats to the Karaaf Wetlands and Thompson Creek estuary. The Karaaf Wetlands and Thompson Creek estuary are important habitat for migratory birds and other local species.

    I strongly support initiatives to better manage stormwater runoff into the Karaaf Wetlands and Thompson Creek estuary.
    _____________________
    A bit rich to start a petition on the wetlands now Libby. Must be an election coming up.

    You had the chance to save the wetlands when sitting on the Surf Coast Shire Council for years, including 2 stints as Mayor when all the over development was approved by council.
    Despite the objections of local residents .

    You reap what you sow.

  42. I think Australia should just take the Austrian flag but make the most subtle change to its design, confusing the hell out of people who have to arrange flags for various international events.

  45. Taylormade @ #2789 Wednesday, January 26th, 2022 – 1:30 pm

    Libby Coker MP

    I am extremely concerned about the current threats to the Karaaf Wetlands and Thompson Creek estuary. The Karaaf Wetlands and Thompson Creek estuary are important habitat for migratory birds and other local species.

    I strongly support initiatives to better manage stormwater runoff into the Karaaf Wetlands and Thompson Creek estuary.
    _____________________
    A bit rich to start a petition on the wetlands now Libby. Must be an election coming up.

    You had the chance when sitting on the Surf Coast Shire Council for years, including 2 stints as Mayor when the development was approved by council.
    Despite the objections of local residents .

    You reap what you sow.

    Um, maybe because she wasn’t in a politically powerful enough position to be able to do anything about it? You know, that reality stuff? Also, maybe because she was a Councillor/Mayor when the Liberals were in power in the state and she knew they’d never do anything about it. You, know political reality.

  46. National anthems, ditto.

    I dunno. Having a crappy national anthem like ours where everyone forced to sing it, pretend to sing it, or listen to it feels embarrassed seems like a good antidote to ra-ra-nationalism.

    Catchy, stirring national anthems should be forbidden though, for sure.

  47. Bingo!

    —-
    The Minister for the Aged goes to the Cricket instead of attending a Covid19 Enquiry and all we’re getting on MSM is that Grace Tame didn’t smile. #ThisIsNotJournalism #auspol

  48. The Good news , we can gain ‘super immunity’ to Covid . The Bad news, it involves catching Covid-19

    …… breakthrough infections following vaccination or natural infection followed by vaccination – provide roughly equal levels of enhanced immune protection.

    “It makes no difference whether you get infected and then vaccinated, or if you get vaccinated and then a breakthrough infection,” said co-senior author Fikadu Tafesse, PhD, assistant professor of molecular microbiology and immunology in the OHSU School of Medicine……….”In both cases, the immune response measured in blood serum revealed antibodies that were equally more abundant and more potent – at least 10 times more potent – than immunity generated by vaccination alone,” the authors wrote.

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/covid-19-omicron-outbreak-scientists-say-a-covid-infection-after-vaccination-triggers-super-immunity/MRTMRO73NMUUXNWVI6337NTMQU/

  50. Snappy Tom @ #2791 Wednesday, January 26th, 2022 – 1:37 pm

    Boerwar and SHP

    History? How shall we define it?

    Written?

    Oral?

    Archaeological?

    Quite.
    My “down time” project is working through Graeber & Wengrow’s new tome “The Dawn of Everything”, which takes an iconoclastic (and endearingly anarchistic, given Graeber’s background) hammer to large scale History. It’s worth the (>500 pages + footnotes) effort. I surf it with some pleasure, but my (professional Historian) son, to whom I gave it for Festivus is also quite complimentary.

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