Roy Morgan has become the second pollster to emerge from the summer break, maintaining its recent form in crediting Labor with a 56-44 two-party lead, out from 55.5-44.5 in the previous poll. As before, this is souped up by a much stronger flow of respondent-allocated preferences than Labor managed at the 2019 election. Both the Coalition and Labor are steady on the primary vote, at 34.5% and 37% respectively, with the Greens up half a point to 12% (strong support for the Greens being another feature of the Morgan series). One Nation is down a point to 3% and Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party is steady on all of half of a point, whereas it managed 3.4% in 2019.
The “previous poll” used for the basis of comparison here wasn’t actually published at the time, as noted by a keen-eyed observer on Twitter. Morgan’s last published poll from last year was from the last weekend in November and the first weekend in December, whereas the results tables on the website include a further result for the two weeks subsequently.
The state two-party breakdowns credit Labor with leads of 58-42 in New South Wales, a swing of around 10%; 59-41 in Victoria, a swing of around 6%; 51-49 in Western Australia, a swing of around 6.5%; 60.5-39.5 in South Australia, a swing of around 10%; and 60.5-39.5 in Tasmania, a swing of around 4.5%. However, the poll has the Coalition ahead 51.5-48.5 in Queensland, which is still a swing to Labor of around 7%. Whereas Morgan’s past polling combined results from two weekends, here we are told that polling was conducted between January 4 and 16.
U.S. COVID update: Nearly 3,000 new deaths, cases continue to drop
– New cases: 540,730 ………………………. New deaths: 2,997
– States reporting: 45/50
– In hospital: 148,681 (-1,117)
– In ICU: 25,744 (+51)
894,880 total deaths now
poroti @ #2796 Wednesday, January 26th, 2022 – 1:50 pm
poroti:
I’ve read this study. The report is over hyped facile fluff and does not reflect the actual implications of some quite good work. COVID 19 is not going to become endemic.
Jackol, sadly I don’t know the words of our national anthem, but I can recognise the tune. I do remember the old one but as I am getting on a bit I should be able to forget that soon.
Oh for a rousing anthem, something like the French one would be good.
I do wish people would stop trying to make me picture Scott Morrison soiling himself.
I’ve always thought we should adopt Adam Hills’ take on Advance Australia Fair:
https://youtu.be/xiEycVMKoJo
Dear little Amanda Stoker said that Grace Tame should have hugged Morrison because of all he has done for women.
“I do wish people would stop trying to make me picture Scott Morrison soiling himself.”
sorry…i shall attempt a more mature approach in the future. 🙂
“Dear little Amanda Stoker said that Grace Tame should have hugged Morrison because of all he has done for women.”
WTF?? lizzie, do you have a reference for that? No insult, but FFS that would be just such a stupid way to stir the pot on this issue and make Morriscum look like even more of a dickhead.
Although…is she an ally of daS UberPotatoFurhrer??
An anthem befitting our growing role as an international laughing stock could be Spike Milligan’s poem/song Orstralia Orstralia.
imacca
I believe she said it on 2GB during a discussion of Tame’s “attitude” to Morrison at the meet and greet at The Lodge.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1486138673293062147
lizzie
“Dear little Amanda Stoker said that Grace Tame should have hugged Morrison because of all he has done for women.”
Did she say that Grace Tame should smile more? Grace is so pretty when she smiles.
😛
Felt sorry for Morrison’s daughter as she visibly cringed at the Canberra Australia Day Ceremony where Morrison told the crowd she had written the poem and proceeded to read it out( I think…felt so sorry for the poor kid that I couldn’t watch any longer !)
Ta lizzie. Just watched that link and yup…..she actually said it direct to Kenny. 🙁
I did have a google and wound up on SkyNews site ( i will wash now) and the reporting on there was pretty arrogantly bad.
….. in days gone by :
1. Poetry is popular.
2. I want to be popular.
3. Ergo…
‘Universe’s Worst Poem’ Written By Gina Rinehart, Australia’s Richest Woman
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/universes-worst-poem-gina-rinehart-australia_n_1282013
McGowan just said old people’s lives matter. Doesn’t matter how old you are he wants to keep you safe.
LNP take note.
Asha, thanks for the link to Adam Hill’s version of the anthem. I would vote for thank if we get another vote before I kick the tin.
And Lizzie, I believe Stoker has a very marginal chance of remaining in the Senate, so there isn’t gloom and doom everywhere.
Granny Anny
Good. 🙂
“ Felt sorry for Morrison’s daughter as she visibly cringed at the Canberra Australia Day Ceremony where Morrison told the crowd she had written the poem and proceeded to read it out( I think…felt so sorry for the poor kid that I couldn’t watch any longer !)”
I wondered if Scomo had asked his daughters permission to read out her poem? Looks like we have our answer. I presume she meant it just for him.
The girls are just props in Scomo’s life. I hope they find happy lives themselves.
Jesus.
Where do the Liberals find these people?
Asha, your choice of the word jesus is most appropriate, Stoker is a right wing religious loon.
Hence an appropriate qualification to be a part of the Morrison Government.
Asha @ #2819 Wednesday, January 26th, 2022 – 3:03 pm
In the local church congregation, where they learn how to be absolute hypocrites with a straight face.
Granny Anny @ #2759 Wednesday, January 26th, 2022 – 3:11 pm
It’s perhaps more accurate to say that this is an image she projects to secure electoral and party support.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/apr/03/quite-the-turnaround-amanda-stokers-journey-from-liberal-moderate-to-arch-conservative
Australians let us all rejoice for we are young and free
And, Jack Doolan was his name
As he sang and stuffed that jumback in his tucker box.
God save the Queen.
I prefer the Kenny version
Australians let us all ring joyce
The SmearStralian is all Jingoism today, including this prominent article thankfully paywalled.
. PM’s daughter steals Australia Day limelight
A poem written by Scott Morrison’s daughter Lily has stolen the show at an Australia Day ceremony in Canberra.
From a time when we wrote songs about true Aussie heroes.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1484659006392369153
sprocket_ @ #2128 Wednesday, January 26th, 2022 – 3:48 pm
A PR transactional win for the Morrison brand. Good optics reported by the focus groups.
Sprocket,
So, a twelve year old girl becomes a prop for Morrison’s personal political ambitions.
It’s disgraceful, it’s horrible. But, exactly what you’d expect from Morrison.
For the astronomy buffs
https://bigthink.com/starts-with-a-bang/super-earths-2/
The poem reading has neutralised the negative PR created yesterday by the ‘petulant’ and ‘immature’ Ms Tame.
Good work by the PMO advising team in conjunction with co-operative media.
I take issue, Granny Anny at 3.11pm.
Scott Morrison and Amanda Stoker have nothing to do with Jesus (of Nazareth, that is.)
1. Was the poem even that good?
2. Did Ms Morrison have professional help?
https://youtu.be/h7Y-9C6ox1Y
Powerful. Apt.
C@t
No professiomal writer would have come up with garbage like that.
Rex Douglas @ #2830 Wednesday, January 26th, 2022 – 3:35 pm
I’m going to go out on a limb and say neither is really going to make that much of a splash one way or another in voterland, so it’s not really worth getting that hung-up about.
“No professiomal writer would have come up with garbage like that.”
Neither would a 12 year old. Where did the birches come from?
Roy O
Yes, I thought the birches struck an odd note.
Wat Tyler @ #2138 Wednesday, January 26th, 2022 – 4:23 pm
I think you’re right. I was just channelling Morrisons CoS.
Lol – most of these micro moments mean nothing.
It’s like those who panic Morrison getting one day of not-shit coverage will suddenly change everything.
Over-analysis? Here? Shock.
Rex Douglas @ #2838 Wednesday, January 26th, 2022 – 3:59 pm
Ah got it 🙂
There is no way of achieving an Australian flag with integrity until there is a Voice, a Truth and Reconciliation Commission and a Treaty.
Until these happen what we have is a temporary Occupation Flag.
There is currently no path of integrity to incorporate the Indigenous Flag into the Australian Flag. The reason is that there is no Voice that could legitimize such a change.
ROat 4:24 pm
Probably this …………
Pentecost…..green branches are also traditionally used to decorate churches for Pentecost. Birch is the tree most typically associated with this practice in Europe
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pentecost
I think truth is the logical priority.
How can we genuinely move forward without first recognising the truth.
Bring me night or bring me another opinion poll
Golly, you guys have obviously been missing out on a lot of fun:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Birching
With truth comes acceptance of such symbols as a national flag.
If anything, the last two days have shown what little ammo the right currently have. Albanese gives a really good NPC address and they’re sulking about Grace Tame’s facial expressions. Now apparently a poem has some significance.
I know the left of centre aren’t exactly used to the feeling of winning (and, after 2019, are scared of that feeling) but we’re winning. Yeah yeah, not too late to turn things around etc. but not only are the polling numbers looking increasingly woeful, they’re now starting to nitpick and make desperate backfoot policies. I haven’t seen this increasing level of frustration on the right since 2007. Even around 2019, they could keep it together.
I don’t want to encourage complacency or suggest Labor just focus on measuring the drapes. It will still be a hard-fought election but I feel pretty good right about now.
I agree with Doug.
Albo will make a good PM (with the assistance of non-partisan independents).