Morgan: 56-44 to Labor

A second pollster emerges to suggest the summer break has done little to improve the situation for the Morrison government.

Roy Morgan has become the second pollster to emerge from the summer break, maintaining its recent form in crediting Labor with a 56-44 two-party lead, out from 55.5-44.5 in the previous poll. As before, this is souped up by a much stronger flow of respondent-allocated preferences than Labor managed at the 2019 election. Both the Coalition and Labor are steady on the primary vote, at 34.5% and 37% respectively, with the Greens up half a point to 12% (strong support for the Greens being another feature of the Morgan series). One Nation is down a point to 3% and Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party is steady on all of half of a point, whereas it managed 3.4% in 2019.

The “previous poll” used for the basis of comparison here wasn’t actually published at the time, as noted by a keen-eyed observer on Twitter. Morgan’s last published poll from last year was from the last weekend in November and the first weekend in December, whereas the results tables on the website include a further result for the two weeks subsequently.

The state two-party breakdowns credit Labor with leads of 58-42 in New South Wales, a swing of around 10%; 59-41 in Victoria, a swing of around 6%; 51-49 in Western Australia, a swing of around 6.5%; 60.5-39.5 in South Australia, a swing of around 10%; and 60.5-39.5 in Tasmania, a swing of around 4.5%. However, the poll has the Coalition ahead 51.5-48.5 in Queensland, which is still a swing to Labor of around 7%. Whereas Morgan’s past polling combined results from two weekends, here we are told that polling was conducted between January 4 and 16.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,089 comments on “Morgan: 56-44 to Labor”

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  1. U.S. COVID update: Nearly 3,000 new deaths, cases continue to drop

    – New cases: 540,730 ………………………. New deaths: 2,997

    – States reporting: 45/50

    – In hospital: 148,681 (-1,117)
    – In ICU: 25,744 (+51)

    894,880 total deaths now

  2. poroti @ #2796 Wednesday, January 26th, 2022 – 1:50 pm

    The Good news , we can gain ‘super immunity’ to Covid . The Bad news, it involves catching Covid-19

    …… breakthrough infections following vaccination or natural infection followed by vaccination – provide roughly equal levels of enhanced immune protection.

    “It makes no difference whether you get infected and then vaccinated, or if you get vaccinated and then a breakthrough infection,” said co-senior author Fikadu Tafesse, PhD, assistant professor of molecular microbiology and immunology in the OHSU School of Medicine……….”In both cases, the immune response measured in blood serum revealed antibodies that were equally more abundant and more potent – at least 10 times more potent – than immunity generated by vaccination alone,” the authors wrote.

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/covid-19-omicron-outbreak-scientists-say-a-covid-infection-after-vaccination-triggers-super-immunity/MRTMRO73NMUUXNWVI6337NTMQU/

    poroti:
    I’ve read this study. The report is over hyped facile fluff and does not reflect the actual implications of some quite good work. COVID 19 is not going to become endemic.

  3. Jackol, sadly I don’t know the words of our national anthem, but I can recognise the tune. I do remember the old one but as I am getting on a bit I should be able to forget that soon.

    Oh for a rousing anthem, something like the French one would be good.

  4. “I do wish people would stop trying to make me picture Scott Morrison soiling himself.”

    sorry…i shall attempt a more mature approach in the future. 🙂

  5. “Dear little Amanda Stoker said that Grace Tame should have hugged Morrison because of all he has done for women.”

    WTF?? lizzie, do you have a reference for that? No insult, but FFS that would be just such a stupid way to stir the pot on this issue and make Morriscum look like even more of a dickhead.

    Although…is she an ally of daS UberPotatoFurhrer??

  6. lizzie

    “Dear little Amanda Stoker said that Grace Tame should have hugged Morrison because of all he has done for women.”

    Did she say that Grace Tame should smile more? Grace is so pretty when she smiles.

    😛

  7. Felt sorry for Morrison’s daughter as she visibly cringed at the Canberra Australia Day Ceremony where Morrison told the crowd she had written the poem and proceeded to read it out( I think…felt so sorry for the poor kid that I couldn’t watch any longer !)

  8. Ta lizzie. Just watched that link and yup…..she actually said it direct to Kenny. 🙁

    I did have a google and wound up on SkyNews site ( i will wash now) and the reporting on there was pretty arrogantly bad.

  9. @Aaronsmith333
    ·
    6h
    Scott Morrison appointed Amanda Stoker as Assistant Minister for Women. Stoker is a supporter of Bettina Arndt who interviewed and gave a platform to the man who groomed, stalked and sexually assaulted 15 year old Grace Tame.

    But the outrage is that Grace didn’t kowtow to Scott?

  10. Felt sorry for Morrison’s daughter as she visibly cringed at the Canberra Australia Day Ceremony where Morrison told the crowd she had written the poem and proceeded to read it out( I think…felt so sorry for the poor kid that I couldn’t watch any longer !)

    1. Poetry is popular.
    2. I want to be popular.
    3. Ergo…

    ‘Universe’s Worst Poem’ Written By Gina Rinehart, Australia’s Richest Woman
    https://www.huffpost.com/entry/universes-worst-poem-gina-rinehart-australia_n_1282013

  11. Asha, thanks for the link to Adam Hill’s version of the anthem. I would vote for thank if we get another vote before I kick the tin.

    And Lizzie, I believe Stoker has a very marginal chance of remaining in the Senate, so there isn’t gloom and doom everywhere.

  12. “ Felt sorry for Morrison’s daughter as she visibly cringed at the Canberra Australia Day Ceremony where Morrison told the crowd she had written the poem and proceeded to read it out( I think…felt so sorry for the poor kid that I couldn’t watch any longer !)”

    I wondered if Scomo had asked his daughters permission to read out her poem? Looks like we have our answer. I presume she meant it just for him.

    The girls are just props in Scomo’s life. I hope they find happy lives themselves.

  13. “Dear little Amanda Stoker said that Grace Tame should have hugged Morrison because of all he has done for women.”

    Jesus.

    Where do the Liberals find these people?

  14. Australians let us all rejoice for we are young and free
    And, Jack Doolan was his name
    As he sang and stuffed that jumback in his tucker box.
    God save the Queen.

  15. The SmearStralian is all Jingoism today, including this prominent article thankfully paywalled.

    . PM’s daughter steals Australia Day limelight
    A poem written by Scott Morrison’s daughter Lily has stolen the show at an Australia Day ceremony in Canberra.

  16. sprocket_ @ #2128 Wednesday, January 26th, 2022 – 3:48 pm

    The SmearStralian is all Jingoism today, including this prominent article thankfully paywalled.

    . PM’s daughter steals Australia Day limelight
    A poem written by Scott Morrison’s daughter Lily has stolen the show at an Australia Day ceremony in Canberra.

    A PR transactional win for the Morrison brand. Good optics reported by the focus groups.

  17. Sprocket,

    So, a twelve year old girl becomes a prop for Morrison’s personal political ambitions.

    It’s disgraceful, it’s horrible. But, exactly what you’d expect from Morrison.

  18. The poem reading has neutralised the negative PR created yesterday by the ‘petulant’ and ‘immature’ Ms Tame.

    Good work by the PMO advising team in conjunction with co-operative media.

  19. Rex Douglas @ #2830 Wednesday, January 26th, 2022 – 3:35 pm

    The poem reading has neutralised the negative PR created yesterday by the ‘petulant’ and ‘immature’ Ms Tame.

    Good work by the PMO advising team in conjunction with co-operative media.

    I’m going to go out on a limb and say neither is really going to make that much of a splash one way or another in voterland, so it’s not really worth getting that hung-up about.

  20. “No professiomal writer would have come up with garbage like that.”

    Neither would a 12 year old. Where did the birches come from?

  21. Wat Tyler @ #2138 Wednesday, January 26th, 2022 – 4:23 pm

    Rex Douglas @ #2830 Wednesday, January 26th, 2022 – 3:35 pm

    The poem reading has neutralised the negative PR created yesterday by the ‘petulant’ and ‘immature’ Ms Tame.

    Good work by the PMO advising team in conjunction with co-operative media.

    I’m going to go out on a limb and say neither is really going to make that much of a splash one way or another in voterland, so it’s not really worth getting that hung-up about.

    I think you’re right. I was just channelling Morrisons CoS.

  22. Lol – most of these micro moments mean nothing.

    It’s like those who panic Morrison getting one day of not-shit coverage will suddenly change everything.

    Over-analysis? Here? Shock.

  23. Rex Douglas @ #2838 Wednesday, January 26th, 2022 – 3:59 pm

    Wat Tyler @ #2138 Wednesday, January 26th, 2022 – 4:23 pm

    Rex Douglas @ #2830 Wednesday, January 26th, 2022 – 3:35 pm

    The poem reading has neutralised the negative PR created yesterday by the ‘petulant’ and ‘immature’ Ms Tame.

    Good work by the PMO advising team in conjunction with co-operative media.

    I’m going to go out on a limb and say neither is really going to make that much of a splash one way or another in voterland, so it’s not really worth getting that hung-up about.

    I think you’re right. I was just channelling Morrisons CoS.

    Ah got it 🙂

  24. There is no way of achieving an Australian flag with integrity until there is a Voice, a Truth and Reconciliation Commission and a Treaty.

    Until these happen what we have is a temporary Occupation Flag.

    There is currently no path of integrity to incorporate the Indigenous Flag into the Australian Flag. The reason is that there is no Voice that could legitimize such a change.

  25. If anything, the last two days have shown what little ammo the right currently have. Albanese gives a really good NPC address and they’re sulking about Grace Tame’s facial expressions. Now apparently a poem has some significance.

    I know the left of centre aren’t exactly used to the feeling of winning (and, after 2019, are scared of that feeling) but we’re winning. Yeah yeah, not too late to turn things around etc. but not only are the polling numbers looking increasingly woeful, they’re now starting to nitpick and make desperate backfoot policies. I haven’t seen this increasing level of frustration on the right since 2007. Even around 2019, they could keep it together.

    I don’t want to encourage complacency or suggest Labor just focus on measuring the drapes. It will still be a hard-fought election but I feel pretty good right about now.

  26. I agree with Doug.

    Albo will make a good PM (with the assistance of non-partisan independents).

    Doug Cameron
    @DougCameron51
    ·
    9h
    More substance in this extract from #AlboForPM speech than 8 years of Murdoch propaganda and Liberal lies.
    Quoting Tom Uren, Albo said:
    “The healthy looked after the sick, the strong looked after the weak, the young looked after the old”.
    This is substance!
    This is leadership!

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