Roy Morgan has become the second pollster to emerge from the summer break, maintaining its recent form in crediting Labor with a 56-44 two-party lead, out from 55.5-44.5 in the previous poll. As before, this is souped up by a much stronger flow of respondent-allocated preferences than Labor managed at the 2019 election. Both the Coalition and Labor are steady on the primary vote, at 34.5% and 37% respectively, with the Greens up half a point to 12% (strong support for the Greens being another feature of the Morgan series). One Nation is down a point to 3% and Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party is steady on all of half of a point, whereas it managed 3.4% in 2019.
The “previous poll” used for the basis of comparison here wasn’t actually published at the time, as noted by a keen-eyed observer on Twitter. Morgan’s last published poll from last year was from the last weekend in November and the first weekend in December, whereas the results tables on the website include a further result for the two weeks subsequently.
The state two-party breakdowns credit Labor with leads of 58-42 in New South Wales, a swing of around 10%; 59-41 in Victoria, a swing of around 6%; 51-49 in Western Australia, a swing of around 6.5%; 60.5-39.5 in South Australia, a swing of around 10%; and 60.5-39.5 in Tasmania, a swing of around 4.5%. However, the poll has the Coalition ahead 51.5-48.5 in Queensland, which is still a swing to Labor of around 7%. Whereas Morgan’s past polling combined results from two weekends, here we are told that polling was conducted between January 4 and 16.
“ F35 air show over Sydney today. Why ..?”
Straya Day celebrations funding up 10 fold under Morrison (Michael West News), mass deployment of available RAAF assets across the Nation.
Populous being primed for a Khaki Election (it’s all they’re got).
Last minute ‘Wag the Dog’ event anyone? Obrest Groupenfuhrer Kartoffelkopf dons Sam Brown Belt over riding jodhpurs. Much?
“ F35 air show over Sydney today. Why ..?”
Straya Day celebrations funding up 10 fold under Morrison (Michael West News), mass deployment of available RAAF assets across the Nation.
Populous being primed for a Khaki Election (it’s all they’re got).
Last minute ‘Wag the Dog’ event anyone? Obrest Groupenfuhrer Kartoffelkopf dons Sam Brown Belt over riding jodhpurs. Much?
Why couldn’t Pope Francis just smile?
I loved that Tom Uren line because it’s the core Labor/Left/Progressive/Whatever message. We need to look after each other. Instead of being purely about punishing the rich or the “top end of town” the message should be about looking out for each other and helping those who need it. Having the wealthy pay their fair share should be a means to achieving this, rather than be defined as the end.
2GB in outrage mode again this afternoon over Albo apparently not shaking Morrison’s hand!
Jim Wilson was a dud sports host for Channel 7, he’s even more of a dud afternoon presenter.
Very few people will be influenced by Morrison reading a poem allegedly written by his daughter. If he wasn’t such a control freak, he would have got the girl to read the poem instead of himself. That might have had an influence on public opinion.
Wat Tyler @ #2151 Wednesday, January 26th, 2022 – 4:38 pm
I’ve felt confident about an Albanese win since not long after he finally became the leader, and commented here about it.
To me it was a stark contrast between a perceived trustworthy meat and potatoes man – and a marketing man continually being exposed as the antithesis of a leader who runs from responsibility.
The last few years under Albo shows how much of a waste the years 2013 to ’19 were for Labor under an unelectable leader.
Morrison moving away from Sporty Scott and taking first steps in his family man/father image for the election? If the Australian reported that the poem stole the show, they’re part of the new direction – under orders.
I read that Trump and the Pope did Karaoke after the official meeting.
Evan Parsons @ #2853 Wednesday, January 26th, 2022 – 4:45 pm
Really!?! That’s the best they’ve got?
Albanese is NOT Latham!
Of course there were plenty of smiles between the Pope and Trump.
The Catholic League were quite adamant about this.
https://www.catholicleague.org/media-spin-trump-pope-meeting-2/
I would have thought that a new Aussie flag would just replace the Union Jack with the Aboriginal and Torres Strait flag in each corner and leave the Southern Cross in the place where it is now.
Eagerly awaiting photos of Jen washing and ironing clothes, dishwashing (after those Morrison curries) and mopping the floor.
I think if you could get PM Albo and Xi Jinping in the same room for good chat, they’d get on well and the relationship could get back on track.
Lizzie, @ 4.47 pm.
I agree.
The poem and mention of Lily is Morrison sending the subliminal message to voters that he has a wife, two children and a dog. Albanese has only an adult son and a dog. Family values behind Howard’s proverbial white picket fence.
Edit. Included Howard’s
It IS surprising that Morrison’s daughter did not read her poem herself, but had her father do it.
But perhaps she couldn’t pronounce all the big words she wrote.
Glen LeLivre has more apposite fun with the Bedwetters:
Based on the 1958 SF cheeseburger (thanks to Alpha Zero for the habit):
I love asymmetric warfare in the 21st century! (As long as it’s the goodies not the baddies 😉 ) :
https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/us-military-equipment-flown-into-ukraine-as-the-uk-urges-nato-unity-20220126-p59r8g.html
BL,
Exactly.
The problem with this sort of weak Political maneuvering by Morrison is that young Lily is now a legitimate political target since her father chose to use her as a prop for his political ambitions.
Specifically, did she write it or not? Did she have help from the PM’s staff.? etc.
It seemed something happened between Morrison and Tame after this moment. Some misunderstanding about what Morrison said to her.
nath @ #2172 Wednesday, January 26th, 2022 – 5:10 pm
He ran from responsibility when he needed to lead.
nath attempts to gaslight by dredging out of context photos… this is the context.
While conservatives like Paul Ryan have expressed reservations about Pope Francis, the Vatican’s ambiguously progressive social-justice warrior in chief, their differences of opinion pale in comparison to the Pope’s clashes with Donald Trump. The feuding began in earnest in 2016, when Francis criticized Trump’s anti-immigrant rhetoric as “not Christian,” an insult that Trump returned tenfold, accusing the pope of being a “pawn” of the Mexican government and warning that the Vatican would be “attacked by ISIS” if he were not president. After the election, the two heads of state settled for a sort of détente: Francis welcomed the president and his family to the Vatican earlier this year for an awkward photo op and a brief meeting on the third floor of the Apostolic Palace, during which the pope slipped Trump two somewhat backhanded gifts: a signed copy of his 2017 peace message (“Nonviolence—A Style of Politics for Peace”) and a copy of his 2015 encyclical letter on climate change. “Well, I’ll be reading them,” said Trump, who almost certainly didn’t.
https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2017/09/pope-francis-trump-daca
Rex Douglas says:
Wednesday, January 26, 2022 at 5:12 pm
nath @ #2172 Wednesday, January 26th, 2022 – 5:10 pm
It seemed something happened between Morrison and Tame after this moment. Some misunderstanding about what Morrison said to her.
He ran from responsibility when he needed to lead.
_________________
Apparently Morrison said something to her back stage after her speech. something like ‘it must have been good to get that out’ referring to her story. She took it in a bad way. Who knows, only those two were there.
sprocket_ says:
Wednesday, January 26, 2022 at 5:13 pm
nath attempts to gaslight by dredging out of context photos… this is the context.
___________
I leave it to you to gaslight with photos. Revving up the stooges with fake pics.
I merely point out that one photo of someone smiling or not doesn’t say much.
When Morrison introduced the poem he simply referred to its having been written by a pupil from a school in the Sutherland Shire. I wonder whether originally he had agreed with the daughter to quote it but arranged to leave its writer unidentified, but parental pride (hubris?)got the better of him.
I couldn’t care less about the relationship between Pope Francis and Donald Trump. One is an old dude who claims to be the voice of God, who was elected in his 70s by a bunch of white dudes and religious conservatives to lead a failing institution which is too stuck in its old-fashioned ways. The other is the Pope.
When reactionaries wish to shift the agenda from something uncomfortable they often seek to personalize the agenda.
For reasons best known to themselves, reactionaries do not want to talk about sexual harrassment, rape or unequal pay.
So they attack Grace Tame.
As long as we are all talking about Tame’s behaviour, what she was wearing, whether she smiled at the Prime Minister or what the stone was in her ring, then the reactionaries have a win.
nath
I leave it to you to gaslight with photos. Revving up the stooges with fake pics.
Can we see a collection of your Bill Shorten back catalog? Just the doctored ones…
Ch 10 news had balanced coverage of the two aspects of Australia/Invasion Day. Also of Dylan Alcott (with a cameo appearance by SfM cosying up to him). Nothing on “that poem”.
Unfortunately the first item was a drowning tragedy on the Nepean River.
A SpaceX rocket is on a collision course with the moon after spending almost seven years hurtling through space, experts say. The booster was originally launched from Florida in February 2015 as part of an interplanetary mission to send a space weather satellite on a million-mile journey.
But after completing a long burn of its engines and sending the NOAA’s Deep Space Climate Observatory on its way to the so-called Lagrange point – a gravity-neutral position four times further than the moon and in direct line with the sun – the rocket’s second stage became derelict. Bill Gray, who writes software to track near-Earth objects, asteroids, minor planets, and comets, has said the Falcon 9’s upper stage will very likely hit the far side of the moon, near the equator, on 4 March.
The data analyst said in a recent blog post that the object “made a close lunar flyby on January 5” but will make “a certainty”.
https://www.theguardian.com/science/2022/jan/26/out-of-control-spacex-rocket-on-track-to-collide-with-the-moon
BL,
Couldn’t let her read it out herself or allow her artistic control over the production eh?
It’s too late for this schmatzy shit to have an effect on a burnt out, suffering electorate.
People don’t care about Morrison’s daughter and her literary opus magnum.
They care about RAT availability, about their kids’ first Vaccine shots, about their own boosters, about some LNP lunatic leading us into a European war with Russia and an Asian one with China, about our failing economy, about the unavailability of housing, about being unable to afford petrol for their cars, about rising inflation, where food prices and groceries rise several percentage points each week, about their superannuation turning to shit.
In short, people are concerned about their day to day existence, not some brain fart from the fevered mind of an incompetent and puerile spin merchant.
Lizzie,
He’s got Gracie Tame’s eyes!
Rakali says:
Wednesday, January 26, 2022 at 12:24 pm
ItzaDream
like the term first peoples.
———
Yes, I agree.
“First Nations” seems so contrary to my understanding of Aboriginal society and relationship to land. The Nation State (at least in Europe) is such an imperialistic concept.
Not so much. The idea of Nation was advanced in order to weaken and then supplant the Imperialist order. Nationalist revolutions in Italy and Germany, for example, were aimed at unifications of nations and their separation from the Empire. The assassination of the Australian-Hungarian Arch-Duke Ferdinand in Sarajevo in 1914 – the act that led to WW1 – was an act of nationalist terror.
The attempt to achieve Scottish Independence from the United Kingdom is a nationalist revolt against the post-Imperial order centred in England.
Likewise, the Rightist National Front movement in France is a rebellion against the extra-national institutions and relations established within the European Union.
“I would have thought that a new Aussie flag would just replace the Union Jack with the Aboriginal and Torres Strait flag in each corner and leave the Southern Cross in the place where it is now.”
That would look like one of my late mother-in-law’s doona covers. The first rule of flag design is it should be easy for kids to draw. If it isn’t the first rule, it should be. The second rule in flag design is we don’t talk about flag design.
nath
Or even worse, some understanding.
“First Nations” uses the term “nation” in the older sense of a large group of people united by common descent, culture and language, inhabiting a particular territory.
Steve
If so, we need another word – ‘first nations’ people in Australia had a variety of cultures and a couple of hundred languages.
Re the Flag, just remove the Union Jack and move the Federal star up a bit to balance the design.
This creates a dilemma for individuals like Grace and Greta.
If they behave as they have a right so to do, they become the issue – deflecting from the issues they wish to advance.
There is a mirror here. They become hero protagonists for those whose causes they espouse. Many of their followers appear more than happy to take up the cudgels when reactionaries attack them.
The result is often a battle of attrition in an unwinnable Culture War rather than an effective and productive public policy process.
Every other group appears to have asserted the right to self-describe.
Why not the descendants of the people who were here when that military despot, Phillip, arrived?
The best flag is a flag that has never flown.
If so, we need another word – ‘first nations’ people in Australia had a variety of cultures and a couple of hundred languages.
There are lots of nations.
I like the term “First Nations” but “First Peoples” is good. I suppose it’s down to what the First People want.
Steve
I’d be happy with that flag I think.
I also doubt I’ll see a change in my lifetime. This is my 70th year and I’d like to think I’ve got a few left but the forces against change are powerful.
Boerwar says:
Wednesday, January 26, 2022 at 5:53 pm
The best flag is a flag that has never flown.
__________
Sounds like some Peace studies bullshit to me…. 🙂
There was a nice looking flag on twitter earlier – the Aboriginal flag with the Southern cross in the upper right corner.
I’m not sure, however, whether ‘it looks nice’ is the right criteria.
GG @ 5.29 pm
I was thinking more along the lines that she might not have wanted it used at all but had agreed if her name was kept private,, but then he blew it, so to speak.
Wat Tyler says:
Wednesday, January 26, 2022 at 4:38 pm
I know the left of centre aren’t exactly used to the feeling of winning (and, after 2019, are scared of that feeling) but we’re winning.
The race has not yet commenced. When it does start, the LNP will have a head start. They have more incumbents than Labor and they have their reserves on the cross bench.
Labor have to win a net 8 seats to scrape in. There are 16 LNP-held marginals up to and including Pearce (2 PP margin 5.2%) where the incumbent Lib or Nat is theoretically in danger of losing. So Labor will have to win 1/2 of the easiest Lib-held targets to win a majority. There are 10 Labor-held marginals with a 2PP buffer of 2.6% or less.
If this turns out to be a change election, Labor will likely win very easily. But if not, then a net 8/16 will be a tall order.
Be absolutely certain, the LNP will be talking to the voters in those 26 seats very intensely. They will decide the election. All other things being equal, Labor needs to win 18 of them. The LNP need to succeed in 9.