The Willoughby count has been updated with 9673 postals on the primary vote, and while these have leaned less heavily to the Liberals than postals did in 2019, they suggest Tim James’ lead is likely to widen from here rather than narrow. James has added 4357 primary votes, or 45.0% compared with 43.4% of all either votes, while Penn has gained 2651, or 27.4% compared with 32.2%.
Counting has completed in Willoughby for what I expect will be all votes other than postals, leaving Tim James on 8365 (51.76%) to Larissa Penn’s 7797 (48.24%), with 2085 votes having exhausted. The total of 18,247 votes counted is put in the shade by the 25,071 postal votes that have now been received, which will be supplemented by a small number over the next week, counting of which will finally begin on Saturday.
I’m bumping this thread back to the top of the page because the NSWEC is conducting a new two-candidate preferred count in Willoughby between the actual leading candidates, Liberal Tim James and independent Larissa Penn, having conducted what proved to be a superfluous Liberal-versus-Greens count on the night. With results reported from 14 out of 24 booths, preferences are flowing heavily enough against the Liberals (10.2% to Liberal, 42.7% to independent and 47.1% exhausted) to perhaps make James nervous. The numbers are available at the NSWEC website – they are not being published to the media feed unfortunately, so my own results display doesn’t show them. James presently leads 51.4-48.6, which increases to 51.9-48.1 if the preference flow so far is projected across the yet-to-report booths.
That leaves, so far, 18,033 postal votes that have been received, which is more than the sum of the votes so far counted with many more still to arrive, none of which will be counted before the weekend. Ordinarily I would point to the fact that Gladys Berejiklian polled 66.5% of postals in 2019 compared with 57.6% of election day and pre-poll votes and deem the door still closed. But that was from a total of a mere 2269, in contrast to the present extraordinary circumstance where postal ballots were sent to every enrolled voter in the electorate. It may be that, as in the United States, that pool of postal voters, which is traditionally older and more conservative, is now dominated by those most concerned about COVID-19.
For more on the by-elections, below is a discussion between myself and Ben Raue which was recorded on Monday afternoon:
Counting closed last night with quite a bit of the pre-poll vote still unreported – I’m unclear as to whether that will be finished off today or tomorrow. In the very unusual circumstances of these by-elections, there will then be very little to report for a full week, since counting of the unprecedentedly large number of postal votes will not start for another week, as was explained here. There may be a few other types of vote added to the count (absents, provisionals and telephone voting), but these will be few in number.
Election night commentary
10.40pm. A second pre-poll booth from Strathfield, Strathfield EM Office (as distinct from Strathfield EVC), is much more favourable for Labor than the first — a 10.7% swing for compared with 4.8% against — but with less than a quarter as many votes.
10.31pm. Two more pre-polls, Bungendore and Jerrabomberra, are in from Monaro on both primary and two-party — Jerrambomerra was bang on the 7.9% election day swing, Bungendore was 13.3% but with fewer votes.
10.27pm. The Strathfield pre-poll is now in on two-party, and it was a 4.8% swing against Labor, such that there is now a 1.4% swing against them in the seat overall.
10.24pm. Primary votes from the Narooma pre-poll centre, the second in Bega out of six, are much the same in swing terms as the election day results, discouraging the notion of such disparity between them as might jeopardise Labor’s substantial lead.
10.01pm. The last of the Willoughby pre-polls is in on the primary vote, and contrary to what I suggested earlier, the Liberals have suffered identical 15% primary vote swings on election day votes and pre-polls.
9.43pm. The first pre-poll result from Strathfield, primary votes from the Strathfield booth, are quite bad for Labor: down 9.8% on the primary vote compared with 4.3% on election day.
9.32pm. Queanbeyan pre-poll in on two-party: 3.7% swing to Labor compared with 7.9% on election day.
9.24pm. A second pre-poll booth, Queanbeyan, is in on the primary vote in Monaro, recording a swing against the Nationals slightly below the election day results.
8.49pm. The first pre-poll booth from Bega, Bermagui, is in. My results page says it has swung no different from the election day booths, but this is the one pre-poll in the seat that was not in use in 2019 so I’d advise some caution. Nonetheless, Labor candidate Michael Holland is claiming victory as I speak. Regarding the previous entry below, it seems my perception of a weak result for the Liberals in pre-polls in Willoughby is to do with the way I’ve calculated the historic results, which was a necessarily imperfect process. The remaining pre-poll booth there, North Willoughby, will presumably tell a different story.
8.16pm. A second pre-poll booth is in from Willoughby, which makes two out of three, and I’m now more confident that both show a drop in the Liberal Party vote similar to the election day booths, and pre-polls are not in fact transforming the result here. So I remain curious as to where Zimmerman got his estimate of a 61-39 result.
8.07pm. The first pre-poll booth from Willoughby, and the second overall, is Willoughby EM Office – my swing figure says it’s not much different from the election day results, contrary to what we were hearing from Trent Zimmerman. However, my historic figures for pre-poll booths in the city seats are dubious because several new booths were added, and discretion was needed in dividing up the 2019 votes.
7.59pm. All election day votes are in from Strathfield now on both primary and two-party, and with the usual caveat added about election day votes only, the lack of any swing is at least a partial qualification to the picture of a night for triumph for Labor.
7.49pm. My commentary has slowed to a trickle because the picture on election day votes is now clear. We’re now in a period typical of modern election nights where there’s a lull between the election day votes coming in and the much larger pre-poll booths reporting later in the evening.
7.39pm. Trent Zimmerman goes so far as to suggest Tim James will end up on 61% two-party preferred, which suggests an extremely different dynamic on pre-polls than election day votes.
7.36pm. Antony Green in the same position as me in relation to Bega — his system is calling it for Labor, but the peculiarities of this election are such that he’s not willing to shut the door.
7.33pm. The Cooma pre-poll booth from Monaro is in, and there’s only a very slight swing to Labor compared with 7% on the election day booths — the first evidence those of us without scrutineering contacts have had that the Coalition may indeed be doing better on pre-polls.
7.26pm. I’ve spent a few minutes trying to fix my preference flow table, without success, so just disregard that. So far as the election day vote, the picture is now fairly settled. Firstly, the number of election votes we’re talking about here is unprecedentedly small, which has been reflected in the speed of the count. But for what they’re worth, the Liberals look like they’re in all sorts of trouble in Bega, but the ABC coverage indicates the feeling within the party is that this is misleading. There’s been a lot of progress in the Monaro count since I last commented, but no change in the overall picture — a big swing to Labor, but apparently not quite big enough. Very little swing in Strathfield; Liberal Tim James leading independent Larissa Penn in Willoughby by about 42.5% to 32.%, which would leave Penn in need of a very strong flow of preferences, so you wouldn’t rule her out unless you accepted the Liberals’ insistence that they’re doing better on pre-polls.
7.12pm. A slight swing to Labor in Strathfield; things have settled down in Willoughby, where my impression is of a tight result with maybe a slight edge for the Liberals over the independent, with the inevitable qualification that we’re flying blind without pre-polls and postals.
7.11pm. I’ve fixed my projections issue, although the swings in my “preference flows” table aren’t working, which was related to the problem with the projections. Consistent with what’s being said by Trent Zimmerman now, I’ve got the Nationals probably home in Monaro, but Bega still looks very bleak for the Liberals.
7.03pm. There’s an error in my projections which I’ll now work on fixing. Pay attention instead to the results in the tables.
7.01pm. Now looking even worse for the Liberals in Bega, where I think my numbers might be more up to date than the ones just noted by Antony Green, which had the swing at around 8% rather than my 12%.
6.58pm. Better news for the Liberals in Willoughby now. With 11 booths in out of 24, Tim James holds a fairly solid lead on the primary vote, which would probably be enough for him if there’s any rate of preference exhaustion, and certainly would be if it’s indeed the case that he’s doing better on pre-polls. Note that I’ve now arbitrarily set the probability gauge here at 50%. Also no swing now in Strathfield.
6.57pm. I’m now projecting a squeaker in Monaro off five two-party and nine primary results, which you can take as a Nationals win if the pre-poll and primary dynamic is any better for them.
6.56pm. That update is through now. We’ve now got six two-party booth results now from Bega, compared with I think only two before, but the situation hasn’t changed — still a big enough swing to Labor to carry the seat, but yet again, I observe that pre-polls and postals might change the picture.
6.54pm. There’s been an update that my system has failed to process, so the results are stuck for a short time. Should have new figures in a few minutes.
6.49pm. Now we have two booths from Willoughby where Larissa Penn has thrashed Tim James — along with a third which isn’t nearly as bad for James, but would still be worrying for him in his own right even if it were isolated. But like I say, Zimmerman says scrutineers are seeing something very different on pre-polls.
6.48pm. Some less bad primary vote numbers coming through from the Liberals in Bega, but it still looks like they will be relying on a more favourable dynamic from pre-polls and postals.
6.47pm. Trent Zimmerman on the ABC says scrutineers say pre-polls in Willoughby are encouraging for the Liberals.
6.44pm. Three booths in on the primary vote and one on two-party in Strathfield, a bit of a swing to Labor, but seemingly less than in Bega and Monaro.
6.42pm. We’ve now got two booths in from Bega on two-party, plus six on primary, which means I’m no longer going off preference estimates. The two booths have very different results, but when the primary vote booths are further factored in, it doesn’t look good for the Liberals. But — and here I may end up being a broken record — there may end up being a very different dynamic on postal votes.
6.41pm. So to be absolutely clear about this — my near 100% win probability for the Liberals in Willoughby assumes the Greens will come second, which they won’t. Disregard this figure, now and for the rest of the night.
6.39pm. I’ve managed to gloss over my problem with the Willoughby results page. A second booth, Chatswood Guide Hall, is less spectacular than the first, but still of concern for Tim James. The Liberal-Greens preference throw being conducted by the NSWEC will presumably be irrelevant, the contesting being between James and independent Larissa Penn.
6.36pm. Bermagui and Merimbula Public now in from Bega; Wamboin Hall in from Monaro. Liberal and Nationals still down heavily across the board.
6.35pm. Ben Raue on Twitter points out the number of votes reporting here is about 60% down the equivalent booths from 2019. So on top of all the other cautions, it’s possible the exodus from polling day to postal voting is dominated by conservatives.
6.34pm. Two booths from Monaro — Captains Flat Hall with 189 votes, 183 in Letchworth N’hood Cntr. Very solid swings to Labor in booth. So we’ve got five booths now altogether, all of them bad for the Coalition.
6.33pm. Second booth in Bega — Malua Bay Comm. Cntr — 195 votes, but very big swing to Labor. But I’d certainly ignore what my win probability estimate is saying for the time being.
6.29pm. Very interesting first result from Willoughby — Antony Green is noting this is likely to be her best part of the electorate, but independent Larissa Penn is outpolling the Liberal. I may yet regret the fact that this is the one seat where my results feature might not end up handling the strain.
6.26pm. My two-party preferred will be going off a crude estimate until a few more votes are in. I have a notion the estimate may be flattering to Labor, judging by the fact that I’ve got a bigger projected two-party swing than for the primary vote.
6.24pm. We’ve got a result – 78 votes from Towamba Public in Bega. Meaningless at this stage of course (a solid swing to Labor for what it’s worth), but the good news is that my results facility has dealt with it okay.
6.10pm. Links added above. The results map for Willoughby doesn’t seem to be working, but I’m hopeful it will resolve itself (and this seat is unlikely to be a focus of attention even if it doesn’t), and other than it looks okay so far. However, I won’t have cause for confidence until some actual numbers come through.
6pm. Welcome to the Poll Bludger’s live coverage of the count for the New South Wales state by-elections in Bega, Monaro, Strathfield and Willoughby. If and when I’m satisfied that it’s working properly, I will shortly provide links for my live results pages. First results should presumably be through from country booths in Bega and Monaro around 6.30pm.
Max
That would only stick if the ALP didn’t direct preferences and that is what the Greens did in Willoughby.
Whoever thought the 2PP would be between the LNP and Greens was dreaming
Stupid.
Domicron fails to mention the rorts
[‘The Perrottet government is on track to lose the regional seat of Bega and has suffered a significant swing against it in Gladys Berejiklian’s former safe seat of Willoughby as voters send a clear warning to the Coalition.
Labor is expected to win Bega for the first time since the seat’s inception in 1988 and is also likely to hold Strathfield.
Despite the early indications, the final results of the Super Saturday byelections – which will plunge the Perrottet government further into minority with the loss of Bega – face lengthy delays.
Labor is expected to win Bega for the first time since the seat’s inception in 1988 and is also likely to hold Strathfield – SMH.’]
Steelydan.
No federal implications?
Implications. The staffers that lose their jobs federally won’t find a safe haven in NSW for long.
Labor got about the electorate swinf average in Queanbeyan. Is Jerraborra part of Queanbeyan
@Mick – yeah, Jerra is basically where Quangites or Canberrans go to build McMansions.
It’s full of tradies and senior public servants – it’s also where Barrilaro lived.
On Federal implications – if these swings are reflective of public sentiment, there’s no surprise the Libs have basically been ignoring Eden-Monaro.
Didn’t I tell you that Dutton’s linkage of Labor with the Chinese government had a LOT to do with Jason Yat Sen-Li’s candidacy in Strathfield?
Wtf, Liberal volunteers whispering racial sweet nothings into the ears of voters as they walked into the polling booth?
Bridget Sakr can come over all sweetness and light now but she didn’t stop that and that says more about her fitness for government than any flowery speech from her or Perrottet ever can.
For “balance”, shouldn’t the ABC cut away from Bridget’s concession speech like they did for Jason’s victory speech?
Antony Green’s estimate in Willoughby is Lib 3.3% / Penn 46.7%, from primaries of 43.6% and 31.8%, so Penn’s done pretty well out of the votes that didn’t exhaust.
Hackett’s HTV had Penn at #2, and the LDP had a full 1-6 sequence with the Libs at #2 – all other parties (Libs, Penn, Greens, Sustainable Aus) had a 1-only HTV.
The NSWEC has a Lib/Grn 2cp of roughly 50% Lib, 25% Green, 25% exhaust (largely from Penn). Not sure if those tea leaves are worth reading, but it seems like a low exhaust rate.
Jerra has McMansions under the flight path – living the dream
Nah you want to find something but it is not there, even though my colours are known if I thought their was Federal implications I would admit it.
Bega maybe something for labor, Strathfield if anything Liberal, Monaro still ok for Nats, Willoughby maybe something for labor and all four have other issues so it is bit of a dogs breakfast. As Speers stated it is hard to take much out these by-elections at a State level let alone a Federal level.
Comrades!
The bastards will be sweating blood tonight. If lying and porking and ukeleles can’t do the trick, what can?
Which makes tonight a good night!
Mavis,
Your relentless negativity won’t stand.
Where’s your hope? We’ve got another week of sitting, they can totally turn it around with a nice and tidy spill and then a quick honeymoon for Dutton for a comfortable win.
I really want to watch the libs go for another spill. A very early Xmas present.
I worked on Jason’s election campaign when he ran for Bennelong and I was very impressed by his modesty, knowledge and sincerity .
He will make an excellent contribution if elected, especially during the problematic dealings with China.
The people of Jerra’ likes to think of itself as not being part of Queanbeyan as it is a little newer and therefore “classier”…. CUB territory .
Andrew_Earlwood @ #209 Saturday, February 12th, 2022 – 9:26 pm
I’ve never seen so much coverage given to a loser before!
Perrotet is a twit and will probably be knifed before the next election.
As he should. He is a catholic fool.
But pls, don’t anyone suggest Vic Dominello as his replacement.
Anyone that wears a white skivvy under a beige lounge jacket should immediately be dismissed as a lightweight.
Re Mick Quinlivan at 9.24 pm
Jerrabomberra is the affluent part of west Queanbeyan, though in effect a suburb of Canberra. Labor’s vote there today was 53.5% after preferences. In the 2020 Eden Monaro by-election Labor got 48% on the day, and 45.3% in the pre-poll. Whereas in Queanbeyan East today Labor got 46%, much less than the 59% that Kristy McBain got there at the federal by-election.
Hey there’s my neighbour mad dog Murphy with our next NSW Premier.
south:
Saturday, February 12, 2022 at 9:27 pm
I really don’t know what you’re carrying on about, nor do I wish to know.
So, have the election day votes all pretty much been counted now? That leaves something like 60-70% of the vote still to come in postals, yeah? Could be some real surprises still to come.
Talking of Jerrabomberra, Environa which is just south of Jerrabomberra was all laid out as a city that never was in 1920s. Our own version of the Florida land boom.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environa,_New_South_Wales
Asha
So far early vote booths from Bega x1, Monaro x2 and Willoughby x2 show no material difference from the votes on the day.
It would be a surprise if there were any surprises to come
Boerwarsays:
Saturday, February 12, 2022 at 9:27 pm
Comrades!
The bastards will be sweating blood tonight. If lying and porking and ukeleles can’t do the trick, what can?
Which makes tonight a good night!+
No not even a little, bit more of an exhalation of relief as their seems to be little if any federal implications. I am not saying anything about the Federal outcome you may very well win by your 10 seats but tonight did not give any side anything. Other than Gladys’s pick should have been given the nod, Bridget Sakr is a good candidate and a few other little things but nothing Federally.
south:
I think I get it, you’re being flippant?
Asha @ #221 Saturday, February 12th, 2022 – 9:34 pm
Antony Green said, probably not. It was his impression that the voters on the day and the voters voting postal won’t be much different in their inclinations. Different story if the on-the-day results showed a tighter contest between the parties.
@Asha – yup, I still think calls on Monaro and Willoughby are touch premature.
Mavis,
My apologies, I misread a post from a different thread.
But alas, I expect more trouble for SfM as a consequence of tonight
Sprocket:
Probably true. But 60% is a hell of a lot of votes. Could be that certain demographics favoured going to the booths in person over voting postal, and that the results we’ve got so far are favouring certain parties/candidates.
Usually you can reliably predict the swing at this stage in the count due to the magic of the booth-matching algorithms, but that assumes relatively similar turnout at each booth since the last election. The postals remain a big unknown in my opinion.
Best night for NSW ALP since the Miranda by election in 2013.
I’m a bit frustrated that a useful old site that had maps of the old NSW electorate boundaries has disappeared, something along the lines of “NSW Electoral Atlas” that had maps of the state in each redistribution in the 20th century. If it was up it would be useful.
That Labor seems to have won Bega in a “never before seen result” might be tooting the horn a bit too loudly, because Bega was only recently formed as a seat in 1988, where it was won by the Liberals on a 68.7% winning margin from a 16% swing, so it had been estimated as 52.7% at the 1984 election.
Prior to that, Bega probably was split between the districts of Monaro, which was held by Labor between 1976-1988, and South Coast, which was pretty much John Hatton’s Independent stronghold from 1973 to 1995, making it hard to gauge how well Labor would have done during the Wranslide elections.
Ed Husic going bang.
Jane Norman choking up as he does so.
Go Ed.
And here’s ABC TV’s Ashley Raper in safe Tory territory in Willoughby.
Spinning the turd as best she can.
So this is where the party is!
Unless someone was seriously thinking the Greens were in with a chance in these particular seats (maybe Willoughby?), what relevance do they have to the analysis?
They didn’t get above 15% of the primary in 2019.
If these were inner city seats with a reasonable Greens primary and then they lost that, that’d be another story (Ballina aside).
Hard to argue the Greens are bigger losers than the Coalition here, but then again I’m not from NSW.
Griff @ #234 Saturday, February 12th, 2022 – 9:49 pm
Woot! 😀
You should be very proud that one of your medical brethren has taken Bega for Labor!
Re Zerlo at 9.12 pm and the science behind calling a seat with 20% counted (by Antony Green)
When you get a chance listen to Antony Green’s talk, especially the bit from 28 mins in:
https://antonygreen.com.au/predicting-australian-elections/
He usually needs only 20% (sometimes little more than 10%) counted to have a very good idea of where a seat will end, because he focuses on the swing. If the swing isn’t big enough in that 20%, it is unlikely to be found elsewhere (Monaro now – e.g. swing to Labor in Queanbeyan pre-poll is 3.7%, and that is the biggest pre-poll in the electorate, whereas overall margin was 11.2%). If the swing is much bigger than needed (Bega now: e.g. swing in Bermagui pre-poll is 14.5% to Labor, though that is usually a strongly Labor town) then the trailing candidate is extremely unlikely to catch up ground.
This is why William has the swing and percentage tabs on his results page. If you focus on the swings in relation to the overall margin in the seat you can put a 20% counted tally in a clearer perspective.
The historical example used by Antony Green in his talk is the federal seat of Braddon. He will be fairly confident at 20% counted as to whether Labor will gain that seat, based entirely on the swings.
south:
Saturday, February 12, 2022 at 9:39 pm
[Mavis,
My apologies, I misread a post from a different thread.
But alas, I expect more trouble for SfM as a consequence of tonight’]
No worries. And I think you’re right about dear leader’s prospects. The man’s fraud and I think the punters have come to said conclusion. I wish you well.
C@tmomma_says:
Saturday, February 12, 2022 at 9:38 pm
Asha @ #221 Saturday, February 12th, 2022 – 9:34 pm
“So, have the election day votes all pretty much been counted now? That leaves something like 60-70% of the vote still to come in postals, yeah? Could be some real surprises still to come.
Antony Green said, probably not. It was his impression that the voters on the day and the voters voting postal won’t be much different in their inclinations. Different story if the on-the-day results showed a tighter contest between the parties.”
Using conventional wisdom, the votes to be counted will be more blue than the votes on the day.
It is possible that could change given Covid but perhaps not enough to make a difference.
I still wonder whether Willoughby could be closer than the Lib vs Green prefs indicate – but I suspect the Libs will get there in the end (sadly).
Dr. Doolittle:
Antony mentioned in that same video (which, I might add, is excellent and well worth a watch) that his algorithms assume most of the same people are voting at each booth from election to elections, and that higher postal votes have been affecting their accuracy a little. With well over half of each electorate seemingly voting via postal, I wonder how much they can be relied on.
That said, Antony apparently said that he doesn’t think postals will be very different , and he certainly knows a hell of a lot more about this sort of stuff than me, so I might just be talking out of my butt here.
Re jt1983 at 9.38 pm and Asha earlier
If the entire Monaro electorate was as politically astute as the townsfolk of Braidwood and its villages (14% swing to Labor today, though only half that in the smaller nearby booth at Majors Creek), you might have reason to doubt that Mrs Overall will be the Member for Monaro for the next 13 months.
But there are only two large booths (Jerrabomberra and Googong) where the swing is big enough on votes cast today, and many others where it falls way short, apart from the backsliding in Bombala. The small (3.7%) swing to Labor in the Queanbeyan pre-poll shows Overall is now home and hosed.
Note that a big hurdle for Labor in Monaro (even in 2023) is the high exhaustion rate, nearly 41%. That rate is even higher in Bega (47%) but it doesn’t matter there, because Dr Holland is 7% ahead on primaries, not 13% behind, as Bryce Wilson is in Monaro.
Thanks again for everything today William.
If a Labor politician got interviewed like Barnaby Joyce was, or a Liberal candidate got credited by a presenter with a “very classy speech”, this page would be drenched in phlegm.
Steely
No response to the replies such as PaulTu and Dr Dolittle in regards your ridiculous comment that the swing away from the Liberal National Party in NSW is only a state issue.
For what it’s worth, I vote for Reason aka Fiona Patten in Victoria. She has been a great representative and I wish there more like her.
“ If a Labor politician got interviewed like Barnaby Joyce was, or a Liberal candidate got credited by a presenter with a “very classy speech”, this page would be drenched in phlegm.”
And your point?
That if a Labor politician got interviewed like Barnaby Joyce was, or a Liberal candidate got credited by a presenter with a “very classy speech”, this page would be drenched in phlegm.
The two leaders speeches were illuminating. Perrotet seems to suffer from the delusion that Liberal values, as opposed to advances in medical science, are the only way to defeat the virus. Minns thanking all the health professionals for their efforts, seemed to be trying to put health front and centre without having a reform agenda for the sector. Although, that’s a mammoth task to be fair.
Convinced by neither, but Perrotet’s ego and rigid tactics are all too apparent.
Look at Monaro round the time of Webb Whan.. corchan. Mr Corchan managed s similar vote to our retired deputy Premier. Winning Queanbeyan… but when he retired Webb won to be defeated next election by Steve Whan. Does the pattern repeat