Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor

Little change in Labor’s commanding position in Newspoll, as Scott Morrison’s personal ratings recover a little and Anthony Albanese records his best result in nearly a year.

The latest fortnightly (consistently so now, it seems) federal voting intention result from Newspoll has Labor’s two-party lead unchanged at 55-45, from primary votes of Coalition 35% (up one), Labor 41% (steady), Greens 9% (up one) and One Nation 3% (steady). It also includes for the first time this term a reading for the United Australia Party, who are at 4%. The leaders’ ratings find Scott Morrison recovering a little, up three on approval to 43% and down one on disapproval to 55%, but has even more favourable movement for Anthony Albanese, who is up four on approval to 44% and down three on disapproval to 43%. Albanese has almost closed the gap on preferred prime minister, now trailing 42-40, in from 43-38 last fortnight.

Full report here from The Australian; the poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1525.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,304 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor”

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  1. JenAuthor says:
    Sunday, February 27, 2022 at 10:25 pm
    While I agree that the war in Ukraine will not have influenced this Newspoll greatly, it’ll be 2 weeks + in by the next Newspoll so the shock factor will not likely be still happening as much when they are in the field. Sadly for Scooter, it was a week wrongly timed to effect Newspoll.

    It could be that Morrison has benefited from the timing. He is really very stupid and voters know it. If they think of Morrison and armed conflict in the same sentence, their reflex could well be…nah, no thanks.

    He is a blockhead. Someone more astute….that would be very helpful. It’s a fortunate thing an election is coming. Morrison can be removed. If the election becomes a plebiscite on Morrison – they have no policies whatsoever – then the Lying Reactionaries will lose. The Bunnings/DIY/BBQ -hand is not the right look for very much. It’s certainly not the right look for serious war.

  2. Ukraine is already relegated to 2nd or 3rd spot on the news bulletins by the weather in Brisbane and South East QLD. Albo would be well advised to go up there tomorrow, travel round with the QLD Premier and Terri Butler perhaps.
    I honestly expected more of a bounce for the Liberals than a 1 point rise in their primary vote, Team Scomo would be disappointed!
    Penny Wong’s interview on Insiders this morning was very cool and calm and collected, despite the provocations of David Speers who really is pretty ordinary.
    All the best to those in Brisbane and South East Qld and North Eastern NSW, thinking of you guys!
    And sorry to hear about Lizzie, she was always a great contributor to this blog.

  3. Victoria @ #10 Sunday, February 27th, 2022 – 9:52 pm

    C@t

    Seriously in what universe does Peter Dutton, a federal govt minister think this is a good idea at this point during a natural disaster.

    Vic, it’s about continuing the relentless ideological push. In their hearts, Dutton and Morrison don’t believe in government largesse to affected communities and people. That’s what GoFundMe is for to them.

  6. Good set of numbers that, and a fine moment to come home too after an ALP campaign gathering in the park this afternoon. 🙂

    I see the usual suspects are debating subs again??

    Nothing matters on subs till we get a change in Govt. that said it was suggested way back inthe last thread that maybe Albo says to Macron…I am not Morrison so how about we talk about French SSN’s. I would hand persuading that position into being to the ever capable Senator Wong.

    That actually strikes me as a good idea that Macron may well be receptive too. Barracuda is in the water now and in testing. 12 months from now and any major probs will have surfaced (boom tish).

    Integration of US combat systems (Collins already uses French Sonar on a US combat system??) is unlikely to be a problem and would be same same as it would have for the Attack class.

    And its an LEU reactor that frankly will better suit us and has as far as i can see no real disadvantage relative to the HEU units in Brit / US models.

    Wont have the raw grunt /acceleration / top speed of the Virginia, but will be smaller /less crew/more maneuverable, and above all much more quiet than either the Brit or US offerings.

    US gets its lolly providing combat system and weapons. Brits…well who the fwark actually cares?? They are getting the Hunter contract and BoJo should be grateful that they look like keeping that. 🙁

    French get access to facilities suited to them that they need to support a more global presence in a stable country with those facilities being as far out of Chinese missile range as they can get and still be useful to them in the Pacific.

    I’d say its likely that would give us serviceable SSN’s soon as possible. And…….i can still see no reason to write off Collins as a viable SSK. If Australia gets the upcoming LOTE right they will still be very useful boats until the mid-late 2030’s.

    And, if we want a cruise missile based sea/land attack capability then 12 – 20 B21 Raiders will likely do the job nicely thankyou. All we have to do is have enough missiles in storage to allow for more than one sortie. 🙂 But that is a whole different kerfuffle. 🙂

  7. Dandy Murray:

    Sunday, February 27, 2022 at 10:31 pm

    [‘Did I say it was pissing down before? I got carried away. Now it’s pissing down.’]

    It has stopped pissing down on Advancetown. Wait a bit, it’s started again.

  8. To all those people who are saying that Xi will take this an opportunity to move on Taiwan, it is just not realistic. They haven’t been preparing enough to invade and the spy satellites will pick it up if they do start moving.
    The logistics of supplying an army crossing the Taiwan straights requires a lot of ships and a lot of coordination. Even in World War 2, the estimate was a 100 pounds of supplies per man per day when on offensive and that has increased, not decreased, despite technological improvements.

  10. I don’t think Anthony Green has retired. Haven’t heard anything at all along those lines.

    He was just doing the NSW by-elections and I imagine the only way he would miss a Federal election is if he was carried out in a box.

  13. Morrison goes to Church and prays. Is this supposed to win an election? I doubt it will do anything other than cause most voters to shake their heads rather than shift their votes.

    It might shore up a few votes in a few key seats. But it will lose votes too. He cannot be serious!!

  15. Morrison has been going from church to church to church every week, even giving sermons. Does he really think that’s the secret sauce that will give him his Miracle 2.0 victory?

  16. Don’t worry, Bludging, any Morrison prayers for (his) victory will be counteracted by mine for the reverse!

    OK, OK, I don’t believe the whole thing works that way. Tragically, Morrison does. I would love to know how he would reconcile a loss with his reward/punishment theology…actually, I don’t give a rats (neither does he! Boom-tish!)

  18. Griff, I saw an earlier post here and had an understandably-panicked reaction!

    I googled ‘Antony green retired’ and found nothing, so I think we can breathe again.

  20. I have a colander if Morrison wants to attend a local Pastafarian service. I would require an hour’s notice. Two if I had just used it. I am a gentleman after all 🙂

  23. My relatives out in central NSW (redneckistan) have gone offMorrison. Three of the staunchest supporters, one a Nat office holder all volunteered that he “is an idiot”. But they will all vote conserative. If the authorities come for him with a straitjacket they will still vote for him. They mostly mourn for the glory that was Abbott, but would be happy with Dutton.

  24. Fulvio Sammut @ Sunday, February 27, 2022 at 11:03 pm

    My layperson understanding is that provided one sprinkles Parmesan, all sauce will be blessed.

    For Morrison, surely a puttanesca sauce would suit.

  26. Perhaps Green (61) is making way for dear moderator – similar to maybe BK passing the baton to C@tmomma?

    ___________________________________________

    By the way Player, have you died?

  27. Cut Snake says:
    Sunday, February 27, 2022 at 11:07 pm
    My relatives out in central NSW (redneckistan) have gone offMorrison. Three of the staunchest supporters, one a Nat office holder all volunteered that he “is an idiot”. But they will all vote conserative. If the authorities come for him with a straitjacket they will still vote for him. They mostly mourn for the glory that was Abbott, but would be happy with Dutton.

    _____________________________________

    That’s interesting. There will always be a bedrock of voters who will vote either Coalition or Labor regardless of what they think of leadership and policy. The fact that they can’t see any good in Morrison, though, suggests that the view is widespread and will influence those voters who are far less rusted on.

    I thought there would be no change in the Newspoll (or only minor change due to MOE) because I thought that attitudes towards the Liar and his government are becoming baked in. It appears my view was vindicated (although I’d like to see more polls before I get too cocky).

    I think actually there is an upside for Labor. Most voters don’t have baked in views of Albanese. The Coalition is trying to manufacture some (each way Albo), but this can only work if it resonates with existing feelings of voters. In the last few months, Albanese and Labor have become increasingly clear on what they propose and what they stand for. If anything, I think there is real scope for voters to vote not only on the basis of negative feelings about the Government, but positive feelings about Labor and its leader.

  29. C@tmomma says:
    Sunday, February 27, 2022 at 10:55 pm
    Morrison has been going from church to church to church every week, even giving sermons. Does he really think that’s the secret sauce that will give him his Miracle 2.0 victory?

    Morrison is expecting the Devout vote to align tightly for the Lying Reactionaries. There’s probably something in this…but he won’t be moving many votes. The Devout already vote LRP. Maybe he’s trying to prevent them from wavering.

    There will be plenty of refugees from the clergy too, however, who are repelled by the whole idea of god-bothering as a substitute for handling public affairs.

  30. Sorry Bludgers,I got it wrong, it wasn’t the esteemed Anthony Green who retired.

    But now I surely know how to cause panic in Pollbludger-land!

  32. So Germany has just announced that it intends to double defence spending this year to €100 billion up from €47 billion last year. I wonder how long it is going to take for Putin to realise that he has kicked a massive own goal.

  33. C@tmomma:

    Sunday, February 27, 2022 at 11:17 pm

    [‘Don’t even suggest it, Mavis! I’m only here temporarily to fill BK’s very large shoes.’]

    I was being provocative but dear BK is not as young as he once was. It must be stressful doing what he does every morning. I reckon he needs a break, so apparently does his dear spouse.

  35. RP says:
    Sunday, February 27, 2022 at 11:32 pm
    So Germany has just announced that it intends to double defence spending this year to €100 billion up from €47 billion last year. I wonder how long it is going to take for Putin to realise that he has kicked a massive own goal.

    Good to see the German Green Party choosing a distinctly different approach to their local namesakes.

  36. @Puff, The Magic Dragon says:
    Sunday, February 27, 2022 at 11:22 pm

    Sorry Bludgers,I got it wrong, it wasn’t the esteemed Anthony Green who retired.

    But now I surely know how to cause panic in Pollbludger-land!
    _________________________________

    All good, I better cancel the online petition to the ABC and the gofundme page to reinstate AG

  38. Mavis, Deke Slayton was one of the Original 7 Mercury astronauts, but was grounded as he was diagnosed with heart ‘fibrillations.’

    There is an apocryphal story about two astronauts discussing Slayton’s grounding…
    Astro 1: Did you hear? Deke’s been grounded!
    Astro 2: Yeah, doc says he’s got heart ‘fibrillations.’
    Astro 1: I’d like to see anyone strap ’emselves to the top of about a million pounds of rocket fuel, then wait for someone to light it, and NOT have ‘fibrillations!’

    Antony Green: electoral rocket scientist.

  43. It’s a good poll result.

    I agree that there may not have been enough time for the national security/defence influence of the war to be seen, but also that it may just be too late for this mob to make up significant ground. Some breakdowns by issue might be interesting next time round.

    The Libs’ problem is they’ve already made arses of themselves (good on you Dutton) over the floods.

    Finally, if it hasn’t already that Morrison/Marshall sketch could do well to have the Curb Your Enthusiasm theme underneath.

  45. Mavis, IIRC, the ‘fibrillations’ story is from a TV series called ‘From the earth to the Moon’ – produced by Tom Hanks after he starred in ‘Apollo 13.’

    The series is a bit ‘rah-rah-USA,’ but I’m a space nut and love it.

    About 20 years ago Sydney’s Museum of Contemporary Art hosted an exhibition called ‘Full Moon.’ Photos taken by Apollo astronauts traveling to and walking on the Moon, enlarged so that some of the photos were at least as big as my living room wall. Closest I’ll probably get to walking on the Moon – which I would do in a heartbeat if given the opportunity.

  46. JenAuthor @ #37 Sunday, February 27th, 2022 – 7:25 pm

    While I agree that the war in Ukraine will not have influenced this Newspoll greatly, it’ll be 2 weeks + in by the next Newspoll so the shock factor will not likely be still happening as much when they are in the field. Sadly for Scooter, it was a week wrongly timed to effect Newspoll.

    Yep, Jen.

    I agree, any impact from Ukraine won’t be seen until at least the next poll.

  47. It still doesn’t look like Newspoll is behaving like a true random-sampled poll.

    Where’s the poll-to-poll noise, where’s the crazy outliers every now and then?

  48. “Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor”….

    So far, so good….
    Stay the course and steadily strengthen the rhetoric as we get closer to the Federal election…. Unleash hell during the campaign.

  49. @Snappy Tom

    Was a good series, I ha just finished reading the From Earth to the Moon book it was based on. Had weird 2009, decied to find as many books an so on for Apollo missions for the 40th anniversary – did amass a nice collection of relate books when the $$ was great against the USD and didnt have to bend over and drop your pants for the postage from USA or UK

    For some decent alternative history space work I recommend stuff by Stephen Baxter – Voyage, the 1980s tech NASA Marsh mission featuring NERVA booster power, or Titan, Moondust, there is a series of his NASA work all enjoyable.

  50. Just popped in to see the happy poll news. Excellent. If Morrison can’t get a bounce amidst a security scare he is toast.

    Imacca

    Your suggestion on French subs is similar to AEs and may be as good as any. I agree with your comments on fitting the US combat system. That was going well in the Attack class program.

    Another reasonable compromise may be to contract the French to build some conventional Barracudas (i.e. the Attack design) in France while gearing up in Adelaide to build whichever is quicker to get started of Astute or Barracuda SSNs. If the six billion to update the Collins could be saved it would fund an immediate build of 3 Barracudas in Cherbourg. They would be very useful in the interim.

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