The latest fortnightly (consistently so now, it seems) federal voting intention result from Newspoll has Labor’s two-party lead unchanged at 55-45, from primary votes of Coalition 35% (up one), Labor 41% (steady), Greens 9% (up one) and One Nation 3% (steady). It also includes for the first time this term a reading for the United Australia Party, who are at 4%. The leaders’ ratings find Scott Morrison recovering a little, up three on approval to 43% and down one on disapproval to 55%, but has even more favourable movement for Anthony Albanese, who is up four on approval to 44% and down three on disapproval to 43%. Albanese has almost closed the gap on preferred prime minister, now trailing 42-40, in from 43-38 last fortnight.
Full report here from The Australian; the poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1525.
FWIW this late in the evening, the BCC published a flood forecast map earlier tonight .
PDF: https://www.brisbane.qld.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/2022-02/20220227%20-%20Brisbane%20River%20Flood%20Forecast%20map%20v2.pdf
Web: https://www.brisbane.qld.gov.au/community-and-safety/community-safety/february-2022-severe-weather-event-council-updates-and-impacts#river
“RPsays:
Sunday, February 27, 2022 at 11:32 pm
So Germany has just announced that it intends to double defence spending this year to €100 billion up from €47 billion last year. I wonder how long it is going to take for Putin to realise that he has kicked a massive own goal.”
The problem is: How is Germany going to use that improved and increased military equipment against Putin? As a deterrent, you only need nukes, but that’s what all sides of the current conflict have.
Germany is prohibited from ever producing their own nuclear weapons by the Treaty on the Final Settlement with Respect to Germany which officially ended World War 2 in 1990 and allowed the reunion of East and West.
Snappy Tom says Monday, February 28, 2022 at 12:13 am
You might like the podcast “13 Minutes to the Moon” by the BBC. Series one covers Apollo 11 and Series two Apollo 13.
Alpo says: Monday, February 28, 2022 at 12:28 am
That additional expenditure could buy a lot of additional equipment for Ukraine and significantly upgrade the defenses of the Baltic nations.
Putin has upped the stakes once more and put the nukes on alert. I would not be surprised if there is not a coup or at least attempted coup if gets more serious. Russian generals probably don’t want to go that far for a crazy leader.
Unfortunately for poor Scomocchio, the war in Ukraine is happening at the same time as the Covid pandemic and the floods in Qld (now extending to NSW). Sending equipment and money to Ukraine, plus offering Ukrainian refugees to jump the queue to come here, won’t go down well with the voters who are worried about getting flood relief and pandemic support….
Dr Fumbles at 12.24am
Baxter’s ‘Voyage’ is outstanding!
“B.S. Fairman says:
Monday, February 28, 2022 at 12:33 am
Germany is prohibited from ever producing their own nuclear weapons by the Treaty on the Final Settlement with Respect to Germany which officially ended World War 2 in 1990 and allowed the reunion of East and West.”
NATO has nukes and Germany stores nuclear weapons: “Germany has no nuclear weapons of its own, but it stores 20 or fewer U.S. B-61 nuclear gravity bombs at Büchel air base, and maintains a fleet of aging Tornado fighter bombers to deliver them. This gives it a seat in NATO’s nuclear planning group.”
B.S. Fairman @ #103 Sunday, February 27th, 2022 – 11:33 pm
Huh. Thanks for that. Other limits too according to wikipedia.
Wikipedia also discusses NATO expansion in the context of the German settlement.
B.S. Fairman @ #106 Sunday, February 27th, 2022 – 11:38 pm
Where are you seeing that?
@Snappy Tom
Had to find some of his other, Titan, Ark, Moonseed and Flood, all good but Voyage was superb and so well researched
“bc says:
Monday, February 28, 2022 at 12:37 am
Alpo says: Monday, February 28, 2022 at 12:28 am
“….That additional expenditure could buy a lot of additional equipment for Ukraine and significantly upgrade the defenses of the Baltic nations.”
Yes, the equipment could be used to help the Ukrainians, but the Germans better be fast. As for the Baltic states, they are members of the EU and NATO, I remain extremely skeptical that Putin has any intention of attacking any NATO country.
“Putin has upped the stakes once more and put the nukes on alert.”
Well…..there is an “oh bugger ” moment. 🙁 I haven’t actually seen anything in the reporting that indicates NATO is ready to assault Russia, in fact seems that they are very reluctant to engage in their own right. Now that the war is on, its in ‘the EU’s interest for it to be fought in Ukraine, not EU countries. Even the mention of Nuke Forces by Putin is an obvious threat.
Actually gives some credence to the reports that the Russian assaults in Ukraine are not going well as Putin hoped.
But, once Nukes get put on alert the scope for someone fwarking up and a massive and fast snowballing chaotic series of events happening increases markedly. Me, i have never subscribed to the theory you can fight a limited, tactical nuclear war anyway. 🙁
Soc, on the Collins Class LOTE. I actual consider that to be a pretty important part of any future subs program for Australia. I think its something we would get operational value for $ and better than current capability out of sooner than any new build of subs SSK or SSN.
Would also keep at least the operational experience base supported, even if the industrial experience base needs re-building.
“Putin has upped the stakes once more and put the nukes on alert.
Where are you seeing that?”
Me saw that on Guardian blog.
Hmm. 20 minutes ago
https://twitter.com/JamWaterhouse/status/1497930994611073024
Thanks imacca.
“Putin has upped the stakes once more and put the nukes on alert.
Where are you seeing that?”
Me saw that on Guardian blog.
_____________________________
Not thinking ICBMs but whats to stop him lobbing a few tactical nukes over to Ukraine. It would be inconceivable but how would NATO respond – cant exactly nuke Russia
Late Riser @ #90 Sunday, February 27th, 2022 – 10:57 pm
What a difference 14 hours makes. As of midnight the Seqwater page is showing 183.7% capacity.
The rain looks like it’s mostly passed, but there’s probably enough inertia left in the waterways that it’ll be around 190% by morning?
The Ukrainian Foreign Minister has announced the creation of an International Legion for foreigners to come and fight for them:
For Australians, I think this would now require the Minister for Home Affairs to specifically allow it?
Interesting to see if Karen Andrews does so?
a r,
It’s passed the Upper Brisbane catchment, but the Bremer is still receiving heavy falls and is still rising at the ‘switch.
See this: http://www.bom.gov.au/fwo/IDQ65389/IDQ65389.040831.plt.shtml
(and how do you post a .png?)
I saw a tweet from a USA guy asking if others war vets would be interested in going to Ukraine to fight for them, so Ukraine may have takers for an International Legion. If they would be useful or detrimental is another matter.
If Putin keeps threatening nukes, his own generals will kill him, for sure. I reckon he is on borrowed time anyway.
Morrison could threaten to send BRS to Ukraine.
That would be a sure fire way of causing Putin to back down and hence win the election for the Libs.
Mission accomplished.
Leon,
You wrote as I thought.
With Newspoll holding a 55-45 lead to the Opposition three months out, the next mile stone or mill stone in SfMs case will be the South Australian State election. I don’t think SfM is going get any joy from that either. If the next Newspoll holds or dips only a point you can put down the binoculars. It will be game over if it is not already.
The polls don’t come any better for Labor than this latest Newspoll.
Three months from an expected election, Morrison looks gone. Morrison is looking like a loser at every appearance.
The Kirribilli/TV thingie made Morrison appear weaker and a loser.
Morrison is leaning heavily on a few positives.
The first being that Morrison has abandoned Canberra and is operating remotely. Morrison will happily work out of any available church pulpit. It’s where he is most comfortable.
The second positive for Morrison, if only for Morrison and not his party room, is the apparent complete absence of a superior performer.
The third positive is the pace of change of the modern world, making three months to an election an opportunity for luck to cross the path of an opportunist’s journey.
The voting public have no idea what is happening in the Canberra bureaucracy. Transparency and honesty are not part of the Morrison ingredients.
Much now depends on the last positive. The upcoming early budget which will be jam-packed with political advantage as Morrison and the bookkeeper are left with no other choice.
A miracle may save the LNP government but Morrison, win/lose is finished.
There is no reputation to salvage.
Putin’s latest move actually has stop me sleeping. I am not old enough to remember this happening I the cold war.
U.S. should abandon ambiguity on Taiwan defense: Japan’s Abe
Former prime minister floats possibility of hosting American nuclear weapons
Abe also floats the possibility of hosting U.S. nuclear weapons in Japan. “Germany, Belgium, the Netherlands and Italy take part in nuclear sharing, hosting American nuclear weapons. We need to understand how security is maintained around the world and have an open discussion.”
https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/U.S.-should-abandon-ambiguity-on-Taiwan-defense-Japan-s-Abe
Query: Does Australia host US Nuclear weapons like Germany, Belgium, the Netherlands and Italy ?
You’ve really got to look hard to find Newspoll results on the Australian’s homepage.
Is it too much to hope for?
Good god, it’s always all about Kevin. So I’m quite inclined to believe he was trying to make a comeback even though he denies it. Imagine the gift this would’ve given the coalition trying to distract from SfM’s incompetence and the general rabbleness of his team?!
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/kevin-3-0-rudd-attempted-a-short-lived-comeback-to-political-life-20220225-p59zoo.html
Could the Qld Flood disaster turn into another political Bushfire disaster for Morrison and his cronies
When Australians are in need of support and help to recover, Instead of using extra money out of the so called $16billion chest fund , Dutton with Morrison approval set up a gofundme?
For those who may not have caught up with the (sad) news, BK is still in hospital and as such is unable to bring you the Dawn Patrol this morning. I will be doing it until our esteemed news curator is back on deck. First though, I have to walk the dog.
And we all know Kevin from Queensland wouldn’t have been satisfied with being a mere backbencher.
Whats happening in Ukraine at the moment is horrific , Biden would likely to get Europe leaders who are the main players in the think tank to what to do about Putin , and leave Morrison out
The Ukraine president has made Morrison image more embarrassing
Australians will be more interested in what lack of leadership Morrison has shown for Australians
Morrison and his cronies have left Australians stranded in Australia and overseas with no help
C@t:
OMG what’s happened to BK? I don’t think I could bear it if we lost him as well.
Morrison , like Trump condemned China , but refuse to condemn India
Confessions
I have been in hospital for a couple of days. I’m going OK and likely will be going home today. No problem has been found.
“Northern NSW was also facing flood warnings on Sunday, with six-hour rainfalls of 250mm possible. An evacuation order was in place for the Tweed town of Tumbulgum and there is an evacuation warning for the Clarence River near Maclean. In addition, major flood warnings were in place for Lismore, Grafton, Coutts Crossing, Kyogle and Coraki.”
South-east Queensland floods: what has happened and which areas could be hit next?
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/feb/27/south-east-queensland-floods-whats-happened-and-which-areas-could-be-hit-next
Well that’s a relief, BK.
Glad it’s not anything super serious.
But BK better not get back on deck until safe to do so. 🙂
Somehow I don’t think a GoFundMe is going to cut it for Queensland.
Vladimir Putin sits atop a crumbling pyramid of power — Vladimir Sorokin
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/feb/27/vladimir-putin-russia-ukraine-power
What happened to the $4.7B emergency response fund?
—
‘Isn’t this the role of government?’: Peter Dutton panned for setting up fundraiser for flood victims
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/feb/27/isnt-this-the-role-of-government-peter-dutton-panned-for-setting-up-fundraiser-for-flood-victims
‘It’s not rocket science’: how the world’s fastest parrot could be saved
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/feb/27/swift-parrot-its-not-rocket-science-how-we-could-save-the-worlds-fastest-parrot
The Tongan Volcano Is a Reminder of Island Nations’ Vulnerabilities
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-tongan-volcano-is-a-reminder-of-island-nations-vulnerabilities/
@imacca from late last night:
“ Nothing matters on subs till we get a change in Govt. that said it was suggested way back inthe last thread that maybe Albo says to Macron…I am not Morrison so how about we talk about French SSN’s. I would hand persuading that position into being to the ever capable Senator Wong.
That actually strikes me as a good idea that Macron may well be receptive too. Barracuda is in the water now and in testing. 12 months from now and any major probs will have surfaced (boom tish).
Integration of US combat systems (Collins already uses French Sonar on a US combat system??) is unlikely to be a problem and would be same same as it would have for the Attack class.
And its an LEU reactor that frankly will better suit us and has as far as i can see no real disadvantage relative to the HEU units in Brit / US models.
Wont have the raw grunt /acceleration / top speed of the Virginia, but will be smaller /less crew/more maneuverable, and above all much more quiet than either the Brit or US offerings.
US gets its lolly providing combat system and weapons. Brits…well who the fwark actually cares?? They are getting the Hunter contract and BoJo should be grateful that they look like keeping that.
French get access to facilities suited to them that they need to support a more global presence in a stable country with those facilities being as far out of Chinese missile range as they can get and still be useful to them in the Pacific.
I’d say its likely that would give us serviceable SSN’s soon as possible. And…….i can still see no reason to write off Collins as a viable SSK. If Australia gets the upcoming LOTE right they will still be very useful boats until the mid-late 2030’s.
And, if we want a cruise missile based sea/land attack capability then 12 – 20 B21 Raiders will likely do the job nicely thankyou. All we have to do is have enough missiles in storage to allow for more than one sortie. But that is a whole different kerfuffle. ”
A few points:
If we were to consider a pivot back to the French (and I think that we probably can’t for political reasons unless the Americans actually welcome the idea because of their own production capacity demands) then I think the person to pave the way for the necessary rapprochement would be … that otherwise useless git Malcolm Turnbull. I think he’d love the opportunity to stick it up Morrison and Dutton and he has a close personal relationship with macron, having spoken to him a number of times immediately after the AUKUS clustercuss announcement. I wonder whether the weird relationship dynamic between Albanese, KRudd and Turnbull is such that back channel communications have already been activated.
Good news on the Barracuda /Suffren class sea trials. naval group has reported that as of November 2020 last year the lead boat had already completely well over 100 days at sea and the trials were completed within 6 months and only requiring integration of the second crew (the French operate two crews per boat to given them well over 200 days at sea per year) and the last round of weapons firing tests. The second boat in class has now started its sea trials.
https://youtu.be/DIuEuy3FsyY
https://www.thedefensepost.com/2021/11/29/naval-group-france-nuclear-sub/
Given that the French LEU reactors need to be refuelled every 10 years, consideration should be given to building a dedicated refuelling reactor facility in australia in the longer term. Perhaps somewhere like Whyalla and using the CSIRO developed SILEX laser enrichment technology.
However I don’t get your fascination for lengthy range stealth bombers. I believe that the era of bombers has well and truly passed. Especially for medium powers like australia.
Long range interdiction missions can be best carried out by long range cruise missiles, launched from close to the parameter of an enemy’s air defence system from platforms as diverse as submarines, surface ships or even en masse launches from C17 transport planes – as per current USAF trials. A B21 program would rival the cost of submarines, and for what? I just don’t get it.
Further to Socrates post about the possibility of getting the French to build conventional barracudas as Adelaide prepares to build the nuclear variants, i think this is arse about. It seems to me that we need another SSK to take us through to at least 2060 and 6 or so examples of the conventional variant of the barracuda should be built in Adelaide as intended. If France does have 3 build slots available in Cherbourg (and I think they will only have 2 at any given time given their next gen SSBN program) then they should be used to built the boat they are now experienced in – the nuclear variant: they can probably build us 2 boats every 8 years for the next two decades (starting from 2025 by my guesstimate). After we build 6 SSKs, we could switch to SSN builds in Adelaide by about 2038-40 (there being a 4-6 year overlap in building the two boast concurrently in the same shed). However one thing seems certain. Regardless of who we partner with there will need to be a concurrent build of boats in two years – one in australia and one overseas if we are going to bridge the capability gap that we may already have by 2040.
BK
Sorry to hear you’re unwell. Best wishes.