Essential Research released its fortnightly poll yesterday, the headline “2PP+” reading of which had Labor on 49% (steady), the Coalition on 44% (down one) and undecided 7% (down one). Labor’s marginal improvement was in fact down to better preference flows, since it was down three points on the primary vote to 35%, with the Coalition up one to 36%, the Greens up one to 10%, the United Australia Party is steady on 3%, One Nation down two to 3%, others steady on 4%, and undecided up one to 7%. Labor did notably less well on the Queensland breakdown than last time, their primary vote down ten points to 29% with the Coalition up six to 40%.
Further questions record no advantage for the government on handling of the Ukraine onflict, with the Coalition and Labor tied at 24% on best party to handle, and 33% reckoning there to be no difference. Fifty-eight per cent support Australian financial support to supply weapons to Ukraine, with only 15% opposed, and 68% support additional refugee and humanitarian places for arrivals from Ukraine, with 10% opposed.
An occasional question on whether the government deserves to be re-elected finds an ongoing trend against the government, with 32% holding that view, down two on November, and a three point increase to 48% for the alternative proposition that it’s “time to give someone else a go”. A series of questions on gender equality, presumably to tie in with International Women’s Day, finds 67% believe there is still a long way to go on gender equality, although it seems question wording weighs heavily on such findings, since 48% also agreed gender equality had come far enough already.
The regular questions on COVID-19 management find the federal government’s ratings little changed, with approval down one to 39% and disapproval up one to 35%. The small-sample state government results find the Western Australia government back up by seven points to 71%, ahead of South Australia on 58%, Queensland on 51%, New South Wales on 46% and Victoria on 42%. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1020.
Hi William
Is Labor on 49 or 44%?
Cheers.
Looks like Albanese has learnt from the last election and abandoned class war rhetoric like “top end of town” in his speech today at the AFR.
“Anthony Albanese is pledging to end Labor’s class and climate wars, govern in the style of Bob Hawke if ¬elected, and put the cost of living and wages growth at the centre of Labor’s economic policy. The Opposition Leader is seeking to assure the business community that he is pro-enterprise and will seek a new accord with unions to grow the economy and lift productivity”
“Mr Albanese is promising to pursue regulatory reform for business and cut red tape, while seeking to “rediscover the spirit of consensus” between Labor’s industrial wing and corporate Australia to encourage profits and put wages growth as a central theme of the Labor Party’s federal election pitch”.
“The pre-election pitch to voters and business that he can be trusted to manage the economy comes as the Coalition sharpens its attack to portray Mr Albanese as a class-war warrior from the left side of politics who has a history of supporting higher taxation”.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/im-more-bob-hawke-or-john-howard-and-less-bill-shorten-anthony-albanese/news-story/c10c0fec985f0d9986e21cfa0c13ad2b
—
With fuel prices going through the roof, the cost of living blow outs that will come from that, and another life challenging disaster {floods} to deal with, a clear message on responsible wages growth, cost of living relief and a consensus approach to business interests to develop the economy instead of new taxes is going to be very welcome in the minds of some voters at least come May.
Reviving Hawke’s consensus model of government is a smart move IMHO.
The political Overton Window has been moved so far to the Right by the Coalition that a so-called ‘class warrior from the left side of politics’ is now in the centre.
And that crap about supporting higher taxes? Remind me again who it was that came out recently with a plan to increase taxes on Australians? It was someone from the Coalition!
Not to mention that the Coalition’s lower taxes always favour those with more money but their charges penalise the poor.
C@t
How’s your retaining wall? And what’s the weather like today?
Hi kezza2,
The Retaining Wall thankfully hasn’t given way overnight, though the wind was fierce and the rain whipped up by it equally so. The people whose house I’m in at the moment minding their cat and dog, while they are in the US visiting family, have decided to return early to deal with it. Hope it lasts until then! The BOM are suggesting little to no rain today and tomorrow, which will be a pleasant change from thinking we were in a re-run of ’40 Days and 40 Nights’. 😀
Hey C@t
That’s good to hear. So, it wasn’t your retaining wall then. I’ve seen some awful photos of beaches of the Central Coast. Looked pretty frothy to say the least.
We’re looking forward to a drop of rain here in the Valley, although unlike Vic’s area, we’ve had fairly good rainfall over summer.
This may hot things up somewhat in Ukraine…
Here’s the full statement from the Polish government following its announcement that it is ready to immediately transfer MIG-29 planes to the US for Ukrainian use:
The authorities of the Republic of Poland, after consultations between the President and the Goverment, are ready to deploy – immediately and free of charge – all their MIG-29 jets to the Ramstein Air Base and place them at the disposal of the Government of the United States of America.
At the same time, Poland requests the United States to provide us with used aircraft with corresponding operational capabilities. Poland is ready to immediately establish the conditions of purchase of the planes.
The Polish Government also requests other NATO Allies – owners of MIG-29 jets – to act in the same vein.
Guardian blog
The heading of Coalition 49, Labor 44
Will get Taylormade excited and starting to record a new song with special guest singers
kezza2,
Not my problem, thank goodness.
My problem is that when I go home on Friday I will be returning to a house with a swamp out the back and water threatening to come over the road from the bay and turn the front yard into a pool, instead of a swamp the way it also is like the backyard atm! My son and I are just going to have to wait for all of it to dry out and hope we don’t get a mould problem because he has asthma.
Stiil, if we were to take Boerwar’s advice, we should just move to a house on a hill. But hey, guess what? We can’t afford to. Our choice is living in our cars on the top of a hill or staying where we are. I think we’ll stay in our house and hope for the best.
And I hope Boerwar takes the time to read this article today about all the other people in the same boat (marine metaphor intentional):
‘I can’t afford to go anywhere else’: the NSW caravan park residents devastated by floods
Unable to afford insurance against increasingly common inundations, many have no option but to stay and rebuild
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/mar/09/i-cant-afford-to-go-anywhere-else-the-nsw-caravan-park-residents-devastated-by-floods
It’s just too bloody easy to pontificate and patronise from the comfort of the home that you own.
sprocket_,
Shouldn’t that read, ‘it’s ready to transfer MiG-29 planes to the Ukraine for the Ukrainians to use’?
But yes, it’s good to see. Poland just had to tie up a deal with the US to replace those planes with American ones, which their pilots will now learn to fly in case Putin turns his sights on to them next.
Good morning Dawn Patrollers
David Crowe says that Anthony Albanese will promise a “spirit of consensus” to rebuild the economy in a pitch to voters about his plans to create more national wealth if he leads his party to victory at the election in May.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/spirit-of-consensus-albanese-s-safe-economic-pitch-to-voters-20220308-p5a2tl.html
Serious times demand serious leadership, but who will provide it, wonders a rather cynical Shaun Carney.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/serious-times-demand-serious-leadership-but-who-will-provide-it-20220308-p5a2m7.html
Australia’s federal structure makes it difficult for any prime minister to claim the credit for state-delivered services. Ross Gittins writes that, in a crisis, and we’ve had a few recently, that spells political trouble.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/why-fumbling-federation-has-the-pm-in-a-state-20220308-p5a2pv.html
In a very forthright contribution, Dennis Atkins declares that Morrison’s strutting on national security is sure to carry a cost.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/opinion/2022/03/09/morrisons-national-security-cost/
Alexandra Smith reports that Matt Kean has said if Canberra fails to take the lead on affordable childcare, NSW will step in as it did with climate change.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/kean-feds-should-offer-universal-affordable-childcare-or-nsw-will-20220308-p5a2vc.html
“Forget the ADF and the SES, accelerating climate change will soon outstrip their ability to help”, writes Jenna Price who declares that we are catastrophically underprepared for the natural disasters buffeting this country.
https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/this-is-the-future-for-natural-disasters-the-cavalry-won-t-be-coming-20220308-p5a2o2.html
According to Shane Wright, higher interest rates and hundreds of billions of debt run-up dealing with the coronavirus recession is on track to push up the federal budget interest bill towards $30 billion and eclipse the cost of aged care services.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/close-to-30b-a-year-interest-bill-to-climb-as-rates-lift-on-record-budget-debt-20220308-p5a2qt.html
Michael Pascoe declares that Australia is riding on its freeloading carbon industries.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/2022/03/09/michael-pascoe-australia-big-carbon-industries/
A new and unprecedented form of warfare is joined in the Ukraine – between the 21st-century globalised instruments of finance, economy and trade, and President Vladimir Putin’s 20th-century resort to military invasion, nuclear threats and bombing of civilian populations, writes Paul Kelly.
https://amp.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/putins-ukraine-invasion-provokes-a-new-warfare/news-story/16fc98d311f1a5fb14fb3194493d91a4
According to the AFR, a wave of cash will hit the bank accounts of Australian shareholders over the next two months, providing much-needed stability for the local share market as investors celebrate the richest interim reporting season in corporate history.
https://www.afr.com/wealth/personal-finance/the-36b-windfall-that-could-help-stabilise-the-sharemarket-20220303-p5a18u
The Democratic Labour Party, a political tantrum that lasted 65 years, appears to have finally sputtered out, explains Tony Wright.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/the-dlp-65-years-after-the-split-has-too-few-members-to-survive-20220307-p5a2k1.html
The US will ban the importation of Russian oil and gas amid growing bipartisan pressure to stop inadvertently financing Russian President Vladimir Putin’s bloody invasion of Ukraine.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/biden-bans-russian-oil-imports-in-a-bid-to-thwart-putin-s-war-20220308-p5a2lx.html
The sanctions strategy is flawed. To defeat Putin, you have to know how the Kremlin works, writes Olga Chyzh.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/mar/08/sanctions-vladimir-putin-kremlin-russian-oligarchy
Patrick Hatch reports that the competition watchdog has raised concerned that budget airline start-up Bonza has been locked out of Sydney Airport and that tight control of the gateway’s landing slots could be stifling new carriers.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/accc-concerned-about-new-airline-bonza-s-access-to-sydney-airport-20220308-p5a2ny.html
The SMH editorial says that in order to close the gender gap, superannuation must be paid on parental leave. It is unconvinced by the government’s reasoning behind not doing so.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/closing-the-gender-gap-super-must-be-paid-on-parental-leave-20220308-p5a2wi.html
Dana Daniel and Lucy Carroll tell us that governments are at loggerheads over the national mental health plan.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/they-aren-t-stepping-up-governments-at-loggerheads-over-mental-health-plan-20220308-p5a2sj.html
Matthew Elmas tells us that farmers have warned that the climate crisis will empty shelves and raise food prices.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/consumer/2022/03/09/supermarket-climate-farmers/?breaking_live_scroll=1
Josh Gordon reports that the Reason Party is urging the Andrews government to consider a local government trial that decriminalises the possession and use of small quantities of drugs after ruling out state-wide legislation.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/andrews-government-urged-to-trial-drug-decriminalisation-in-st-kilda-bairnsdale-20220308-p5a2ql.html
The Age reveals details of the drug investigation that uncovered the unlawful swearing in of more than 1000 Victoria Police officers over seven years after a barrister raised concerns over police powers.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/the-major-drug-case-that-lifted-the-lid-on-the-unsworn-police-bungle-20220308-p5a2nd.html
The republic model proposed by the ARM of an elected head of state has been met with criticism. Stephen Saunders offers suggestions for an alternative model.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/a-safer-way-to-ditch-the-monarchy,16127
Here’s Michaela Whitbourn’s report on yesterday’s proceedings in the Ben Roberts-Smith case.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/ben-roberts-smith-didn-t-deserve-his-victoria-cross-sas-soldier-tells-court-20220308-p5a2u6.html
Australia’s corporate regulator delivered the Federal Government a record $1 billion effective profit last financial year, with small business owners footing the vast majority of the bill. Anthony Klan writes that the revelations come as the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) has this week attracted widespread criticism for refusing to take any action whatsoever against ten former executives and directors of systemically corrupt casino operator Crown Resorts.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/frydenbergs-asic-squeezes-1-billion-profit-from-the-public,16128
Shane Warne’s death is a grim reminder that men’s health needs attention, writes Julie Szego.
https://www.smh.com.au/lifestyle/health-and-wellness/warne-s-death-a-grim-reminder-that-men-s-health-needs-attention-20220308-p5a2ma.html
Mike Foley writes that consumer watchdog staff armed with tape measures could patrol supermarkets’ chiller aisles to check fake meat products aren’t too close to the sausages and steaks if the livestock industry wins its push for tough new rules for the emerging plant-based protein industry.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/where-s-the-beef-farmers-fire-up-as-fake-meat-stakes-its-claim-20220308-p5a2q8.html
The floods have killed at least 21 Australians. Adapting to a harsher climate is now a life-or-death matter, explains Professor Barbara Norman.
https://theconversation.com/the-floods-have-killed-at-least-21-australians-adapting-to-a-harsher-climate-is-now-a-life-or-death-matter-178761
The Victorian Ambulance Union argues that the ambulance delays that have been experienced are both predictable and preventable,
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/ambulance-delays-both-predictable-and-preventable-20220308-p5a2md.html
A taxpayer-funded Liberal Party staffer has been pictured electioneering on behalf of Adelaide MP Rachel Sanderson, but the Marshall government says she has done nothing wrong.
https://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-australia/state-election/paid-liberal-staffer-electioneering-but-government-says-shes-doing-nothing-wrong/news-story/b9d850221bb4f94fb1a0e3d9695a04fb?amp
Ukrainian President Zelensky and his forces have shown modern military smarts in thwarting Russia’s advance so far. But to stay in the fight, they must now plan for a worst-case scenario, writes military strategist, Mick Ryan.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/ukraine-s-leaders-must-plan-for-a-smart-insurgency-20220307-p5a2kg.html
Donald Trump’s power is fading: Trumpism is the clear and present danger now, explains Rebecca Solnit.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/mar/08/donald-trump-power-trumpism-danger-now
Cartoon Corner
David Pope
David Rowe
Andrew Dyson
Alan Moir
Matt Golding
John Shakespeare
Cathy Wilcox
Mark David
Iffland
Mark Knight
Spooner – effing useless!
From the US
Alexandra Smith reports that Matt Kean has said if Canberra fails to take the lead on affordable childcare, NSW will step in as it did with climate change.
Sorry, Matt, but federal Labor beat you to the punch on this one! 😀
Morning all. Thanks for the roundup BK, some interesting stuff.
The ability of Biden to get a Russian oil ban in the USA is remarkable. In the past big oil would have stomped on that.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/nsw-floods-updates-over-40-000-residents-issued-evacuation-orders-across-the-state-as-death-toll-rises-sydney-s-northern-beaches-south-west-decimated-by-rain-as-manly-dam-overflows-20220308-p5a2v9.html
Rather early for him. Not only is he awake, but he’s checked his phone for any messages from his Department!
Thankyou BK, hope all is well with you.
Sportsbet out to $3.60 for LNP, that’s $0.80 in a week. $1.27 for the other lot.
Methinks that if you are ‘defending’ a policy, you are not in a winning position. Everything the LNP ‘announces’ lately needs some form of defending and the Reichspud is doing it here…has Karl grown some?
https://thenewdaily.com.au/entertainment/people-entertainment/2022/03/08/provocative-peter-dutton-karl-stefanovic/
Socrates @ #13 Wednesday, March 9th, 2022 – 7:22 am
The Republicans agreed because it will force up petrol prices in the short term and help them in their inflation campaign for the Mid Terms. 😐
The Guardian view on ghost flights: a symptom, not the disease — Editorial
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/mar/06/the-guardian-view-on-ghost-flights-a-symptom-not-the-disease
Confessions @ #14 Wednesday, March 9th, 2022 – 7:36 am
He’s praying for more rain. The Sydney floods saved his political skin – until the next NSW election, when he will be left out to rot by a Lismore road…
This is by far and away the best-informed and rational discussion of where to from hear in the Ukraine I’ve read since the start of Putin’s War. It does not make for comfortable reading:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/mar/08/russia-ukraine-war-possible-trajectories
Spooner still gunning for Leak’s job.
This Essential poll seems bizarre in the light of other polls and current events. Some staff must be embarrassed to work there.
It is good to have variance in polling. The uniformity last time didn’t end so well.
Victorian man dies from Japanese encephalitis as authorities warn people to avoid mosquitos
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/mar/08/victorian-man-dies-from-japanese-encephalitis-as-authorities-warn-people-to-avoid-mosquitos
Coalition 49, Labor 44? That would be a clear Coalition victory, about 53-47. It is unlikely that pretty much all of the undecided would plump for Labor.
Assuming that it’s Labor on 49, that would be a 2PP of about 52 or 53 for Labor, at the low end of recent polls. The sample size being 1020, the MOE is about 3%, so the result would be unremarkable.
The ADF should largely be left to do what the ADF should do: prepare for war. Using it as a stop gap response to climate disasters detracts from its main function. It is also an unnecessarily expensive way of doing disaster response.
But, like the volunteer fire-fighting organisations, the volunteer SES is being overwhelmed by climate disasters.
Part of a National Climate Change Mitigation Framework is going to have to be a properly resourced and properly paid disaster response organization. This would include rapid rescue response and short term support teams. The latter would provide immediate shelter, documentation, food and health support. Standing social security agencies would, as part of their frameworks, then have long term arrangements for re-housing, etc, as required.
One of the things that interests me about climate change is that some of the people who were aware that climate change was going to have terrible consequences did not seem to think that climate change was going to impact THEM personally.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-03-09/adf-support-nsw-qld-floods-disasters/100893234
but no indication the Coalition stands to benefit from war in Ukraine.
Why would Morrison and his cronies get a bounce in the poll for a war that doesnt involve Australia , if Australia did get involved with other countries could start a world and possibly a nuclear war , is head scratching
Australians would be more concern in what happening in Australia , and the lack of leadership by Morrison has gone missing again .
Scott @ #27 Wednesday, March 9th, 2022 – 8:38 am
Yes. Not a good look to see Morrison get off his Covid bed and give a speech to the AFR but couldn’t make it the North Coast flood zones.
With the coalition combined primary vote of 36%
There is no way the coalition 2pp will be near 50% – it will be somewhere near 45% would be more like it
He’s due in Lismore this afternoon. As are severe thunderstorms.
If we’re talking ‘will be’, surely the Coalition 2PP will be closer to 50 than 45 at the time of the election.
Sydney Harbour’s looking a bit brown today:
C@tmomma says:
Wednesday, March 9, 2022 at 8:43 am
Yes. Not a good look to see Morrison get off his Covid bed and give a speech to the AFR but couldn’t make it the North Coast flood zones.
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Agree , also refusing to give more of the emergency funds another bad look
ltep says:
Wednesday, March 9, 2022 at 8:48 am
If we’re talking ‘will be’, surely the Coalition 2PP will be closer to 50 than 45 at the time of the election.
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Yes likely , but it will depend on what the lib/nats combined primary vote is on the night of the election
If the indication shows Lib/nats combined primary vote will not get to 40% or more
Labor and non lib/nats supporters can start to celebrate
Much appreciation BK!
Steve777
Has the rained eased in Sydney town?
I just checked BOM. Sydney forecast is good.
Also looks like today mor rain for parts of Qld then weather settling down thereafter.
Excellent work 😆
TweetSee new TweetsConversation(Jenny) “Charmaine” Frecklington-Jones
@JonesHowdareyouPLEASE GIVE WHOEVER MADE THIS A MAJOR AWARD OF SOME KIND. #auspol #Floods2022 #dickhead
Has the rained eased in Sydney town?
It was raining lightly when I got up but it hasn’t rained for a couple of hours. It’s a bit brighter, we might even see the Sun. Hopefully a good day for cleaning up.
Good to see no fire on the SHB
I am sure WB will correct his headline once he’s up and about – bear in mind it’s 6am in WA!
I am not quite sure what to make of Essential’s 2PP+ ranking, which does not try to force a choice by the undecided. A Labor lead of 49% to 44%, with 7% undecided, is still going to translate to a comfortable a Labor 2pp lead.
The key measure for me is WB’s Bludger Track. As he acknowledges, it’s heavily weighted towards Newspoll, but its major benefit is that it’s founded on a bigger overall sample. The trend line has been quite startling and has been on a constant rise for Labor over a long period. It hasn’t plateaued yet, although surely it’s about to do so now.
Covid cases today for Victoria. Just over 7000
NSW just over 13,000
Another pretty solid poll result for the ALP. The end of the Covid crisis (at least as far as the media is concerned) made no difference at all to the polling. Now we have got some evidence from this poll, and also the most recent Morgan, that the black swan of the tragedy in Ukraine has also had no impact on the polling. Time is really running out for Morrison now, it’s only a little over 2 months to the likely polling day. You’d think the flood disaster in NSW and Qld isn’t going to help the LNP either. It’s very hard to see how the LNP can turn this around now.
I know betting markets can be wrong, as we saw in 2019, but it’s still interesting to see Labor has shortened to 1.27 on Sportsbet now. There has been very little change in the individual seat markets, but Braddon has now shifted from a dead heat to Labor being slightly favoured, making 10 current LNP seats in total now where Labor is favoured to win.
Steve777
The forecast is actually looking good for Sydney going forward.
C@t
The flood victims made the fatal error of not publishing or writing gushing articles about Bullshit Man. A mistake Coorey never makes. The result speaks for itself.
I’ve been musing. Shane Warne did contract covid last year. I believe he was vaccinated at the time. But this is something to consider.
———————————
What are the possible heart issues after COVID-19?
COVID-19, the disease caused by the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus, can damage heart muscle and affect heart function.
There are several reasons for this. The cells in the heart have angiotensin converting enzyme-2 (ACE-2) receptors where the coronavirus attaches before entering cells. Heart damage can also be due to high levels of inflammation circulating in the body. As the body’s immune system fights off the virus, the inflammatory process can damage some healthy tissues, including the heart.
Zelensky spoke to the House of Commons earlier.
Here’s a review. Journo seems to have got the tone and tenor perfectly.
Worth a read.
https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/world/zelenskiy-brings-down-the-house-with-his-speech-to-the-commons/ar-AAUNsxE?ocid=msedgntp
Morrison (on knees): Lord, should I call an election now?
God: Wait until everyone’s double vaxxed.
Morrison: Everyone’s double vaxxed. Can I go to an election now?
God: Wait until the lockdowns are over.
Morrison: The lockdowns are over. Can I go to an election now?
God: Wait until everyone’s triple vaxxed.
Morrison: Everyone’s triple vaxxed. Can I go to an election now?
God: Wait until Vlad sorts out the Ukraine.
Morrison: Er, the Ukraine isn’t getting any better. Should I go to an election now?
God: Wait until it stops raining….
Conclusion: God isn’t on Morrison’s side…
Jaeger says:
Wednesday, March 9, 2022 at 8:20 am
Victorian man dies from Japanese encephalitis as authorities warn people to avoid mosquitos
Health authorities warn of serious risks of mosquito-borne disease as NSW and Queensland also report cases
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/mar/08/victorian-man-dies-from-japanese-encephalitis-as-authorities-warn-people-to-avoid-mosquitos
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Another good reason not to build on floodplains, on the water, among paperbark swamps, in coastal marshes in amongst the trees.