Essential Research 2PP+: Labor 49, Coalition 44, undecided 7

A dip in the Labor primary vote in the latest Essential poll, but no indication the Coalition stands to benefit from war in Ukraine.

Essential Research released its fortnightly poll yesterday, the headline “2PP+” reading of which had Labor on 49% (steady), the Coalition on 44% (down one) and undecided 7% (down one). Labor’s marginal improvement was in fact down to better preference flows, since it was down three points on the primary vote to 35%, with the Coalition up one to 36%, the Greens up one to 10%, the United Australia Party is steady on 3%, One Nation down two to 3%, others steady on 4%, and undecided up one to 7%. Labor did notably less well on the Queensland breakdown than last time, their primary vote down ten points to 29% with the Coalition up six to 40%.

Further questions record no advantage for the government on handling of the Ukraine onflict, with the Coalition and Labor tied at 24% on best party to handle, and 33% reckoning there to be no difference. Fifty-eight per cent support Australian financial support to supply weapons to Ukraine, with only 15% opposed, and 68% support additional refugee and humanitarian places for arrivals from Ukraine, with 10% opposed.

An occasional question on whether the government deserves to be re-elected finds an ongoing trend against the government, with 32% holding that view, down two on November, and a three point increase to 48% for the alternative proposition that it’s “time to give someone else a go”. A series of questions on gender equality, presumably to tie in with International Women’s Day, finds 67% believe there is still a long way to go on gender equality, although it seems question wording weighs heavily on such findings, since 48% also agreed gender equality had come far enough already.

The regular questions on COVID-19 management find the federal government’s ratings little changed, with approval down one to 39% and disapproval up one to 35%. The small-sample state government results find the Western Australia government back up by seven points to 71%, ahead of South Australia on 58%, Queensland on 51%, New South Wales on 46% and Victoria on 42%. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1020.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,563 comments on “Essential Research 2PP+: Labor 49, Coalition 44, undecided 7”

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  1. C@tmomma @ #1498 Friday, March 11th, 2022 – 6:46 pm

    Rex Douglas @ #1491 Friday, March 11th, 2022 – 6:22 pm

    C@tmomma @ #1488 Friday, March 11th, 2022 – 6:20 pm

    It was more likely than not Kimberley Kitching’s recently diagnosed thyroid-related heart problems that killed her, not factional warfare, as the Paul Sakkal/The Age article quoted earlier laid out. She was more likely than not to have retained her Senate position but had not been endorsed because the endorsement of Kim Carr has not yet been finalised and they needed to be done together.

    It was Bill Shorten who raised the ‘factional stress’ as a likely contributor.

    But not the cause of her passing. She had a thyroid irregularity. It causes heart irregularities.

    That’s right.

    It’s just unfortunate Bill Shorten’s comments basically invited media to report on Victoria’s factional troubles.

  3. A day after our Saudi besties couldn’t be bothered to take a call from Ol’ Joe Biden they sign a large deal with Teh Comrades.
    .
    .
    Saudi Aramco JV to develop refinery and petrochemical complex in China
    BY ZAINAB MANSOOR
    MARCH 11, 2022
    ……… It will combine a 300,000 barrels per day refinery capacity and ethylene-based steam cracker, a building block petrochemical used to manufacture thousands of everyday products.
    https://gulfbusiness.com/saudi-aramco-jv-to-develop-refinery-and-petrochemical-complex-in-china/

  4. AJM

    Neighbours are bit like relatives, you don’t get to pick them, only whether to mix with them in the semi-rural dark lands of Duttonville.

  5. If there are any UK redistricting nerds out there the UK Boundary Commission has opened the second consultation period for the latest review, which means you can now read all the responses – including the political parties responses and counter proposals – that were received during the first consultation period

    Seems to me they’ve received more of a kicking from the Pols this time round than I ever remember before

    The final proposals in 2018 and 2013 (neither actioned of course) were somewhat better for the Tories than the initial ones I seem to remember, no doubt the same will occur this time 🙁 The initial proposal estimate by Martin Baxter of Electoral Calculus is Lab -8, LDem -3, Plaid -2 and Tories +13

    It’s close to home this time for me, the constituency to the south of me was one of the Red Wall seats that fell to the Tories for the first time ever in 2019 .. the current constituency boundary is less than a mile away at the bottom end of my village. I was sure I’d be punted into a notionally Tory seat with this review, on the initial proposals happily we weren’t but the final proposals are the ones that matter

  6. Cronusn at 7:07 pm

    only whether to mix with them in the semi-rural dark lands of Duttonville.

    Out on the mean streets of King Scrub ? 🙂

  7. I don’t know whether those saying with certainty that Voice candidates will take votes from the Greens are right, but it will be fascinating to see.

    There’s a lot of upside for Labor in either case.

    That Bongiorno podcast transcript sure is interesting. However pro-Labor you might think he is, he’s not a fraud and wouldn’t make up quotes from sources.

  8. Why does ScoMo hate Queensland?

    #BREAKING The PM will go to the Governor General tonight to sign off a State of Emergency declaration for NSW, but won’t pursue the same treatment for QLD. The PM’s office has confirmed, after Cabinet deliberations, the government decided not to go ahead with it @SBSNews

  9. Anna said today the Feds were needed about a week ago. But not now.

    No opportunity for Dutton to stomp around.

  10. sprocket_ @ #29 Friday, March 11th, 2022 – 6:20 pm

    Why does ScoMo hate Queensland?

    #BREAKING The PM will go to the Governor General tonight to sign off a State of Emergency declaration for NSW, but won’t pursue the same treatment for QLD. The PM’s office has confirmed, after Cabinet deliberations, the government decided not to go ahead with it @SBSNews

    Annastacia will be delighted. Another couple of percent on her approval rating. Qld is pretty similar to WA in that respect

  11. Sprocket

    This has Dutton’s fingerprints all over it.

    If you bought it you own it. This way the State government owns it and can expect Dutton to try and smack them all over the shop.

  16. I don’t doubt the voices candidates will take votes off the Greens in seat where there were Green-Blue contests. The Green candidate in Kooyong is nowhere to be seen and the independent is absolutely everywhere (so is Frydenberg too). To many voters in the leafy suburbs, the Greens are a safer alternative to Labor for a protest vote, but when they have a choice of a Green and Liberal-lite for that protest vote, they are going to go for the Liberal-lite.
    Likewise I doubt the Greens will manage a 14% share of the vote in Goldstein as they did in 2019.

  18. Re Dutton and Morrison, more likely the shark swam off in disgust and no jumping was required.

    Ray (UK)

    Hello from Adelaide. Just curious where you were in UK and if you had any knowledge of UK attitudes on Aukus and the sub deal. The Liberal government here has been playing games with the decision of late.

    In my view Australia would be better off going with the UK Astute option because it is cheaper, a better fit to RAN operations, and ties Australia less to the US military. Another poster here, AE, prefers the French SSN option for similar reasons plus it might repair our relationship with France given the embarrassing manner in which the contract was cancelled. Either way I think it is fair to say we both have reservations about going with the US (Virginia) design. Everyone interested in Aukus here is concerned about the need for prompt delivery.

    So my question is – is Aukus or the sub decision discussed in UK much? Does it matter much to UK which way it goes?

  20. The small similarity between the Voice campaigns and Liberals for Forests campaign at the turn of the century in WA has probably already been mentioned here sometime.

    I had a look to see if I could find any comparison in impact on the Greens vote, but the data seemed pretty light on. Not many Greens/LFF contests in the Assembly and very small numbers in the Council if I recall correctly.

    Edit: William might have had a look, but is his report proprietary knowledge now? His confidentiality agreement will bind him to neither confirm nor deny… 😉

  21. Sandman says:
    Friday, March 11, 2022 at 6:08 pm

    Bandt says…… “….he’s not afraid to take votes off Labor even if the possible consequence is more coalition government…”

    What he really mean to say was “he’s pleased to take votes off Labor because the possible consequence of that is more coalition government.”

  22. Socrates

    I’m in South Yorkshire, Rotherham town to be precise 🙂

    I haven’t seen any debate at all re the Submarine deal .. I don’t have a TV or take a newspaper mind you. In my limited interaction in other social media – Twitter, Reddit mainly – I haven’t seen any debate there either. I suppose it may be a bigger deal in areas with naval yards – Plymouth or Portsmouth for example – but it’s a zero among my circle

  23. Speaking of Dickson, I was actually at a fundraiser for Ali France (Labor’s candidate) last night. She’s very impressive in person.

  26. I’ve just seen today that YouGov’s Anthony Wells has wound his ‘UK Polling Report’ blog – I used to spend many an hour there (although not for several years) and it was extremely active at one time 🙁

  27. Role of government / the State –

    that is what the Coalition want to be out there – it is the community / individual never the role of the state.

    I believe we are better than that we pay taxes to look after each other not to pay for people like Morrison / Dutton / Frydenburg

  28. Just been in touch with relatives in Spain. They’ve organised a convoy to rescue Ukranian women & children & return them to Spain. Recent news tells me they have secured 2 coaches so can take 120 people, all very well organised.

    If you feel like making a contribution I can 100% vouch for them.

    https://gofund.me/19214953

  30. Boerwar and Briefly will enjoy this one 🙂

    ‘Green revolution’ rhetoric undermining support for climate action, report warns
    Exclusive: Activists and politicians are largely ‘preaching to the converted’ on climate policies while jargon is alienating others, study shows’

    ‘Many climate activists and politicians are failing to persuade significant proportions of the population of the benefits of decarbonising the economy and may even be hindering environmental action, a new report has warned’

    https://www.independent.co.uk/climate-change/news/fabian-society-green-rhetoric-jargon-b2015881.html

  31. Beleaguered ex-SAS soldier Ben Roberts-Smith acted as a “mentor” to Northern Territory cop Zachary Rolfe, who was put on trial for the shooting death of an Indigenous man in 2019, court documents have revealed.

    Mr Rolfe, 30, was today found not guilty of murder and other charges in the shooting death of 19-year-old Kumanjayi Walker in 2019.

    Mr Walker was shot three times by Mr Rolfe in the course of an attempted arrest in a remote community. He died at a local medical clinic roughly an hour later.

    Both Mr Roberts-Smith and Mr Rolfe served in Afghanistan, with Mr Rolfe’s mother, Deborah Rolfe, describing the families as “good friends”.

    Ms Rolfe, who is a partner at a Canberra-based law firm, vouched for Mr Roberts-Smith as an official character reference in his defamation proceedings against Fairfax Media.

    In the documents, dated 28 June 2021, she described Mr Roberts-Smith, who is accused of perpetrating war crimes in Afghanistan, as “very kind and helpful” and a “mentor” to her son.’]

    https://www.news.com.au/national/courts-law/ben-robertssmith-mentored-nt-cop-found-not-guilty-over-shooting-of-indigenous-man/news-story/bec02406f30217fc60753743b9b67277

  32. mikehilliard @ #1528 Friday, March 11th, 2022 – 8:03 pm

    Just been in touch with relatives in Spain. They’ve organised a convoy to rescue Ukranian women & children & return them to Spain. Recent news tells me they have secured 2 coaches so can take 120 people, all very well organised.

    If you feel like making a contribution I can 100% vouch for them.

    https://gofund.me/19214953

    I heard a very interesting piece of information today which stated that Spain is where a lot of the oligarchs super yachts (floating palaces) are serviced, so it was quite easy to impound at least 4 of them there. 🙂

  33. ‘Ray (UK) says:
    Friday, March 11, 2022 at 8:08 pm

    Boerwar and Briefly will enjoy this one

    ‘Green revolution’ rhetoric undermining support for climate action, report warns
    Exclusive: Activists and politicians are largely ‘preaching to the converted’ on climate policies while jargon is alienating others, study shows’

    ‘Many climate activists and politicians are failing to persuade significant proportions of the population of the benefits of decarbonising the economy and may even be hindering environmental action, a new report has warned’

    https://www.independent.co.uk/climate-change/news/fabian-society-green-rhetoric-jargon-b2015881.html‘
    —————————-
    Thanks, I think. It has always been a puzzle to me how to get the climate change message across – particularly in a country which is dominated by Murdoch’s messengers.

    I was actually a bit shocked that Bandt was so truthful about the Greens willing to help ensure the re-election of three more years of the most corrupt and incompetent federal government since federation.

  36. I’m wondering if Rolfe’s actions might have been more representative of his military training rather than his Police training?

  37. To far up the chain to quote but thanks beguiledagain for some amazing anecdotes from your time in Antartica (amongst many other places).
    Loved your pic from 1956, could almost have been taken yesterday.
    I’ve always thought you are a treasure on this site, this just reinforces it. Pls keep posting your anecdotes, marvellous..

  39. ‘bc says:
    Friday, March 11, 2022 at 9:18 pm

    I’m wondering if Rolfe’s actions might have been more representative of his military training rather than his Police training?’
    ———————————————–
    There was some evidence led that he should have tried to defuse the situation by backing off and not entering the building and that the latter would have been more consistent with police training. I doubt whether military training revolves around defusing a situation around combat.

  41. So I live in a very conservative electorate where in 2019 a 60% PV saw 2PP votes allocated for ‘funsies’.

    In the upcoming election there is a female Independent running on the usual climate change, integrity, women (yes very macro word) issues. Not a lot known on the wide range of other policy issues that I like to know about.

    The PV for the ALP and Greens candidates at the last election was extremely low. If the Independent gets their votes from the LNP incumbent at reasonable numbers then what is a seat outside any spoken about because it is so safe could well become marginal.

    If that happens in this seat then what happens in those on much smaller margins?

    I think this will be a change election but not necessarily in the traditional ‘change of government’. The under 40’s are pissed. Rather than a change election it could well be the generational election.

    UAP and Independents are the keys in a lot of seats. It’s been Geelong and West Coast footy up until now nice and safe. I think there is going to be some Richmond * chaos balls in electorates across the country due to the LNP losing votes to candidates that they may not get them back from as readily as previous elections.

    Now all of that is my gut feel because I’m ignoring polling and just using gauging people I talk to. The popular incumbent is not as popular as they were previously amongst their people. I’m asking them about their preferencing if they vote UAP/Independent ‘1’. When I say that if they do that then who they put last out of LNP or ALP could well make the 2nd last win. I’ve set some cogs turning at least 🙂

    *I’ve used AFL I don’t know NRL well enough for an equivalent

  43. C@tmomma @ #1500 Friday, March 11th, 2022 – 6:46 pm

    Rex Douglas @ #1491 Friday, March 11th, 2022 – 6:22 pm

    C@tmomma @ #1488 Friday, March 11th, 2022 – 6:20 pm

    It was more likely than not Kimberley Kitching’s recently diagnosed thyroid-related heart problems that killed her, not factional warfare, as the Paul Sakkal/The Age article quoted earlier laid out. She was more likely than not to have retained her Senate position but had not been endorsed because the endorsement of Kim Carr has not yet been finalised and they needed to be done together.

    It was Bill Shorten who raised the ‘factional stress’ as a likely contributor.

    But not the cause of her passing. She had a thyroid irregularity. It causes heart irregularities.

    Thyrotoxicosis (overactive thyroid gland) can be associated with myocardial infarction (“type 2” ie not due to the coronary artery plaque rupture that causes >90% of infarcts and is predisposed to by lipids and genetics) or it can precipitate ventricular tachycardia – which can be a lethal heart rhythm. Both are associated with early mortality. Neither are predictable or preventable. Stress is not usually a factor.

  44. ‘COVID-19: Royal Cornwall Hospital suspends all visiting after ‘significant increase’ in patients testing positive …. A rise in cases in the county has prompted calls from public health teams for people to continue regularly testing and taking the necessary precautions to keep the virus at bay’

    https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-royal-cornwall-hospitals-suspend-all-visiting-after-significant-increase-in-patients-testing-positive-12562491

  49. “In my view Australia would be better off going with the UK Astute option because it is cheaper, a better fit to RAN operations, and ties Australia less to the US military.”

    Soc, appreciate your position but on an operational level, hate the idea of the HEU reactor in the Astute or Virginia Classes.

    Maybe Astute, but with a French LEU reatcor???

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