Utting Research: 10% swing to Labor in WA marginals

Two sets of polling data suggest Labor is set to bag three if not four Liberal-held seats in Western Australia.

The first bit of poll news to relate involves YouGov’s rather remarkable result ahead of Saturday’s South Australian state election, which you can read about in the post below. The bad polling news for the conservative side of politics doesn’t end there:

• The West Australian today has seat polls from the Liberals’ four most marginal seats in Western Australia, conducted Friday to Monday from a sample size of 750. Given the fairly small sample size, it would only seem safe to pool the results and tally up the overall swings. Labor holds a lead across the four seats of 54-46 in the poll compared with a post-redistribution average of 56.1-43.9, suggesting Labor would comfortably win Swan (margin 3.3%), Pearce (5.5%) and Hasluck (5.9%), and be in the hunt for Tangney (9.8%). The average primary votes in the poll are Liberal 35.9% (down 10.2%), Labor 42.4% (up 11.8%), Greens 6.5% (down 4.4%), One Nation 4.0% (down 0.5%) and United Australia Party 3.2%. The West Australian’s report does break down the numbers, which for what they’re worth have it at 50-50 in Tangney, with Labor leading 52-48 in Hasluck, 55-45 in Pearce and 59-41 in Swan. Primary votes are also included in the report, if you can access it.

• The West Australian also reported yesterday that a poll commissioned by the Greens in Western Australia and conducted by the Online Research Unit recorded Labor on 42% (up 12.2% on the 2019 election result), the Coalition on 33% (down 12.2%), the Greens on 11% (down 0.6%) and the United Australia Party on 1% (down 1.0%) independents on 9%, leaving 4% to be accounted for by either minor parties or an undecided component. It also had Senate results of Labor 39% (up 11.4%), Coalition 33% (down 9.3%), Greens 12% (down 0.2%), the United Australia Party on 2% (up 0.2%) and independents 11%, leaving 3% unaccounted for. A sample size and field work dates were not provided.

• The Australian yesterday had further results from the weekend Newspoll featuring an occasional exercise measuring respondents’ assessments of the leaders’ characteristics. I tend not to get too excited about these as they generally march in lock-step with the leaders’ overall approval ratings, although there would be some value in assessing the balance of the various results for different leaders over the long term, which is something I never quite find time to do. The latest results find Scott Morrison with a stronger result than Anthony Albanese on “experienced”, which is fairly typical for the incumbent, but losing his advantage on “decisive and strong”, falling further behind on “in touch with the voters” and “likeable”, and continuing to have a problem on “arrogant”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,052 comments on “Utting Research: 10% swing to Labor in WA marginals”

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  1. Since when was Kitching a shrinking violet? She could play hardball with the best of them.
    And she died of a heart attack and ergo if there was any bullying, it was not the cause of her death.
    All I can suggest is this is not doing her sub-right faction any favours. I doubt they will retain either of the senate spots or Holt if this BS continues.

  2. For those not aware, the level crossing removal project in Melbourne has been one of the great successes that has been achieved during covid. As soon as lockdown started, construction stepped up, because they didn’t have to worry about rail shutdowns anymore. The people on the project have been working non-stop for the entire time. This had the added benefit of many people remaining in the construction industry during the pandemic. The amount that has been achieved in the last two years is nothing short of breathtaking.

  4. William Bowe @ #929 Thursday, March 17th, 2022 – 7:04 pm

    I wonder how many begging emails nath wrote this time?

    None. How about actually doing what you constantly and ridiculously claim you do, namely putting Nath on block and “just ignoring” him. It will make a nice break from issuing orders to people on how and where they should post based on something I never said.

    It’s not my fault that he returned. I took him off my Blocked list. But whatever.

    You do realise, don’t you, that there are other women posters who have said while he’s here they won’t be contributing? Your choice.

  5. B.S. Fairman:

    Agreed.

    I’m yet to see a shred of evidence that either the conflict between Kitching and the so-called “mean girls” (what is this, eighth grade?) or the preselection dramas were anything other than the normal rough-and-tumble game of internal party politics, of which Kitching herself seemed a talented and ruthless player.

    The people who are using her tragic death as ammunition in their pathetic factional games ought to hang their heads in shame.

  7. I’ve heard rumours that Mario Kart 9 has begun development, but I imagine it’s going to be a while away with the DLC package having only just started.

    I’m not that fussed. Mario Kart is Mario Kart. A new game would be neat, but it wouldn’t bother me at all if they just kept releasing new and old tracks in lieu of a brand new game instead.

    Look, I’m still heartbroken that I can’t play Mario Kart Double Dash anymore. There was nothing like sitting in a cart together and getting your partner to unleash a well-timed b-bomb at someone, then cruising past them to the finish line. 😀

    I have to say that I’ve got PTSD from spending so much time playing Animal Crossing New Horizons. I would watch all the videos, I would spend so much time trying to get the wall plaques and trophies for my superbly-decorated house and I would take part in fishing and bug catching tournies over 8 hours so as to get exclusive in-game merch. I terraformed my island like a boss. And, for what in the end? Sigh.

  8. William Bowe

    Evan Parsons is not a sock puppet of Nath or anyone else, and Kakuru is nothing like as smart as he thinks he is.

    I’d say that’s a slight overreaction, but I’ll cop it on the chin and move on. Farewell.

  9. C@t:

    Oh, you’re not wrong there, Double Dash was amazing. I loved the All Cup mode it had too, wish they would bring that back in a future game.

  10. Rex
    Jacinta Allan would be the ideal successor to Andrews. Allan has done a good job in her department and has done well holding a marginal seat and the other one would be jaclyn Symes but needs a lower house seat.

  11. What seems odd is that Kitching and Victorian factional battles gets somehow translated into issues with the Senate leadership from others States?

    Wong – SA
    Gallagher – ACT
    Keneally – NSW

    Victorian chapter sounds as bad as the NSW Libs – sort yourselves out

  13. Asha @ #962 Thursday, March 17th, 2022 – 7:54 pm

    C@t:

    Oh, you’re not wrong there, Double-Dash was amazing. I loved the All Cup mode it had too, wish they would bring that back in a future game.

    Around these parts we keep waiting for it too.

    I also think that Mario Kart 9 might come with the next gen console Nintendo are working on. I’ll be there at midnight to get it either way, whether the new console comes with it or not. In fact, since I got a Wii at Xmas I have enjoyed going around the op shops to get the games for it again. Much better than paying the ridiculous sums that people ask online.

    I understand that VR may be a big component of the next console. Can’t wait!

  14. Oh man, I did so much to my island in Animal Crossing. It came out at the perfect time, just as we were all forced to stay inside. Then one day I just got completely burned out.

    I decided to come back to it in late2021 for a while after having left for months. None of my villagers had rebelled or resorted to cannibalism unfortunately but there were a tonne of weeds) and I played it for a while but I wasn’t as enthusiastic this time and got burned out quickly again. I seriously doubt I will return to it again.

  18. C@tmomma:

    Thursday, March 17, 2022 at 6:17 pm

    Rewi @ #837 Thursday, March 17th, 2022 – 5:32 pm

    C@tmomma

    [‘Please keep your Ukraine posts to the dedicated thread…

    I got lonely over there. ‘]

    In case you missed it, that impliedly was my point at the time. Ditto, dear sprocket__, who ticked me off for publishing a link in excess of the moderator’s recommendations, only to transgress shortly thereafter. I still think, however, Fulvio’s a hoot(?).

  21. ” What waters lie ahead as the election ship sets sail, no one can say. Still in the captain’s hat, Scott Morrison plays with his props, sings a few songs and – unwisely – gets himself photographed with his cat. It’s clear he will do anything – anything at all – to insist you allow him to govern you – except the part of the job he likes least; governing.”

    Roll on election day.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/mar/17/as-his-fauxgan-act-wears-thin-desperation-is-driving-scott-morrison-deeper-into-the-dress-up-box

  22. Wat Tyler @ #970 Thursday, March 17th, 2022 – 8:02 pm

    Oh man, I did so much to my island in Animal Crossing. It came out at the perfect time, just as we were all forced to stay inside. Then one day I just got completely burned out.

    I decided to come back to it in late2021 for a while after having left for months. None of my villagers had rebelled or resorted to cannibalism unfortunately but there were a tonne of weeds) and I played it for a while but I wasn’t as enthusiastic this time and got burned out quickly again. I seriously doubt I will return to it again.

    I had a basement games room. I had a pool table, all the arcade game machines, an in-game Switch and special pirate wallpaper. Upstairs was a music room with all the instruments, classical and electric and Japanese. And my crafting room had two giant computer servers and a floor that looked like a connected chip circuit. My bathroom had fish swimming around the walls.

    Ah, good times. But yeah, I just couldn’t go back there again. One and done.

  24. Asha:

    I’m boring. I’ll just have the ABC coverage on the TV and alternate between Poll Bludger and the ABC website on my phone, with my Switch on standby for the duller parts of the broadcast.

    Kevin Bonham’s site is well worth a tab in the browser on election nights too.

  26. GG

    More strength to your arm as you question everyone here as to their moral position. You are obviously the great arbitrator of all our thoughts & positions. Salute!

  28. sprocket_ says:

    Thursday, March 17, 2022 at 8:12 pm

    [‘Mavis, apologies if I over-stepped in my comment.

    Class monitor is not my thing’]

    Thank you.

  29. Greensborough Growler @ #888 Thursday, March 17th, 2022 – 6:26 pm

    I wonder?

    Hi GG,

    You wonder, and look what exudes.

    What’s a sectarian bigot?

    What does “fuck you and the camel you rode in on” mean?

    Pretty please. Your deep Santamarian brain is so full of wonders, I am sure we would all like to understand where such perceptive insights have their genesis. Truly Pell like. Inspired!

  31. sprocket_ @ #961 Thursday, March 17th, 2022 – 7:59 pm

    What seems odd is that Kitching and Victorian factional battles gets somehow translated into issues with the Senate leadership from others States?

    Wong – SA
    Gallagher – ACT
    Keneally – NSW

    Victorian chapter sounds as bad as the NSW Libs – sort yourselves out

    Two of that 3 are former Premier or Chief Minister Anything to do with real world political experience that Kitching lacked

  33. Steve777 exactly. Unfortunately the National Rupert is very effective at getting people to talk about its talking points even among people who’d usually proclaim they are too smart to be taken in by the National Rupert. The fuckers have taken the tragic early death of a Labor senator and turned it into a sexist anti-Labor attack that would horrify her – at most we should be condemning their disrespect and sexism and then ignoring it.

  37. Yabba,

    The penalty for living rent free in your mind is that there are noisy neighbours.

    Hey, but it’s your mind.

    I’m just grateful for the opportunity to spread love and kindness.

    Cheers

  40. Lars,

    Indeed it is!

    Trillion dollar debt, $2 a litre petrol prices, interest rates rising and wages stagnant, not so much.

    But, hang on to your dreams.

  41. In the circumstance of her premature death, I hesitate to criticise former senator Kitching, my only knowledge of her is her appearances on Sky, which should’ve raised red flags, and her prominence on an extreme right-wing site, posted by someone – sorry for the absence of attribution. I suspect Wong, Plibersek, Keneally know a lot more than they’re prepared to admit.

  42. Lars:

    Unfortunately for the government, the public anger and anxiety that’s looking increasingly likely to see them turfed from office is the result of lived experience, not observation of economic figures.

  43. Mavis,

    We are all understanding of your reluctance to comment.

    And, then you did.

    You really are a total fraud.

  49. Greensborough Growler @ #883 Thursday, March 17th, 2022 – 6:26 pm

    Yabba,

    I have noted you’re being very circumspect these days.

    I wonder?

    I have noted that you have cut down on the fuck, fucking, camel fucking stream that was spewing from your Santamarian quagmire in recent days.

    Is that because you realised how much of a total fuckwit you were revealing yourself to be, or because you came to understand that you were showing how the mind of a true faithful believer in the RPPS version of the Jewish and Muslim sky fairy actually works, and that is meant to be a secret, like the little boy thing? I wonder?

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