Morgan: 56-44 to Labor

More of the same from Morgan, plus further poll findings from Utting Research’s WA poll and a monster YouGov survey on carbon emissions.

The fortnightly Roy Morgan federal poll had Labor leading 56-44, in from 56.5-43.5 last time. The primary votes were Coalition 33.5% (down half), Labor 37% (down half), Greens 11.5% (steady), One Nation 3% (down half) and United Australia Party 1% (steady).

The state breakdowns have Labor leading 56.6-43.5 in New South Wales (out from 56-44, a swing of around 9%), 60-40 in Victoria (in from 63.5-36.5, a swing of around 7%), 53-47 in Western Australia (out from 52-48, a swing of around 8.5%), 54.5-45.5 in South Australia (out from 52.5-47.5, a swing of around 4%) and 66.5-33.5 from the small sample in Tasmania (a swing of 10.5%), with the Coalition leading 52-48 in Queensland (a swing to Labor of around 6.5%).

The poll was conducted Thursday, March 3 to Sunday, March 13 from a sample of 1947.

Other poll snippets:

• The West Australian has continued to eke out results of its Utting Research poll, encompassing 750 respondents in the seats of Tangney, Hasluck, Pearce and Swan, from which the voting intention findings were covered here. Leadership ratings from the poll show Scott Morrison on 42% approval and 43% disapproval, which is broadly similar to other polling; Anthony Albanese on 28% approval and 45% disapproval, which is quite a bit worse (the most recent Newspoll breakdown from the state had it at 28% and 45%); and Mark McGowan on 67% approval and 24% disapproval. Further findings from the poll reported yesterday showed 31% saying they were worried about the COVID situation in WA, with 31% not worried; 34% confident hospitals can handle the pressure, with 38% not confident; 49% rating petrol prices will be an issue for them at the federal election, with 41% saying they will not be; and 49% holding that Australia should do more to help Ukraine, with 23% thinking otherwise.

• My own poll trend calculations provide the basis of this review of the situation by CGM Communications, which feature more up-to-date state trend measures than those presently to be found on my BludgerTrack display.

• A YouGov survey of 15,000 respondents, commissioned by the Australian Conservation Foundation, found 29% support for the government’s position on net zero carbon emissions by 2050, 41% believed it did not go far enough and 12% felt it went too far. The sample size allowed for breakdowns by electorate, which can be explored in detail on the Age/Herald site

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

871 comments on “Morgan: 56-44 to Labor”

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  2. 2007 the Howard government tried the $1000 bribe to pensioners while discriminating against the rest of those on welfare.

    If this comes reality
    2022 Morrison government $1000 bribe to every Australian who are not on welfare , and discriminate against those on welfare

    The current lib/nats may lose more than 22 seats(2007) in the 2022 federal election

  3. Insiders Sunday, 20 Mar

    David Speers speaks with Antony Green about the South Australian election results. The panel of Samantha Maiden, Mark Kenny and Greg Sheridan discuss cost of living pressures, the budget, ALP bullying allegations and Ukraine.

    Guest : Simon Birmingham – Finance Minister

  4. The Saturday Advertiser headline: Liberal and Labor strategists tip close result.

    “Senior Labor and Liberal insiders are forecasting a tighter-than-expected result in Saturday’s election, with cross-benchers expected to be key in deciding the next government”.

    The ‘shock’ poll which put Labor ahead 54-46 in the latest poll that ran to Thursday this week.

    Latest figures show more than 200,000 people have cast pre-poll ballots, 11,500 have requested Covid-19 pick-up voter packs and more than 162,000 have lodged applications for postal votes – the remainder will cast their ballot by 6pm on Saturday.

    What The Advertiser’s political experts predictions {except for Abraham] reflect a clear distrust in the pollsters results.

    MATTHEW ABRAHAM: Labor 26, Liberals 18, Independents 3
    KATHRYN BERMINGHAM: Labor 23, Liberals 21, Independents 3
    DAVID PENBERTHY : Labor 23, Liberals 19, Independents 5
    MICHAEL McGUIRE: Labor 23, Liberals 21, Independents 3
    PAUL STARICK: Liberals 22, Labor 22, Independents 3
    ELIZABETH HENSON: Liberals 22, Labor 22, Independents 3

    https://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-australia/state-election/sa-election-2022-liberal-and-labor-strategists-tip-close-result/news-story/26bbe08e3068f1da3f43d2c3703fd39b

    This election will be a good litmus test for the efficacy of Pollsters, especially the Newspoll team.

  5. The stitch up of Collarey continues.
    At least Stalin’s show trials were in public, the secrecy around this travesty is appalling.
    I guess he wants to protect his reputation but it would cross my mind not to bother with it (I have not much to protect, materially or reputation wise).
    Tell em to have their trial, and let me know the outcome.

  8. There seems to be a default position to predict a hung parliament because of the uncertainty and opportunities it creates

  11. Early in my political ‘career’ a journalist confided in me that is was boring reporting on the obvious result, and could I please try and create a little drama so that they had something to write about….

    Hence the hung Parliament predictions.

  12. Mr Frydenberg remains tight-lipped about when Australians will see the cash bonus, and how much they should expect to get.

    However, 7NEWS understands the boost will be in people’s bank accounts before the election.

    “You can be certain that it will hit bank accounts before the election to get as much political bang for the buck as possible.. and I’m told will be paid through existing government programs so it can go out quickly,” 7NEWS Political Editor Mark Riley said.

    “But voters often see these last-minute bonuses in the shadows of elections as acts of desperation. They’ll gladly take the money, but still vote the way they intended.”

    It is understood the bonuses will be paid through existing government programs by an agency such as the Australian Tax Office, with funds deposited directly into bank accounts before the May election.

    Welfare recipients and pensioners are likely to miss out.

    https://7news.com.au/politics/federal-politics/more-details-emerge-on-potential-one-off-cash-bonus-for-aussies-as-petrol-and-cost-of-living-rise-c-6113888

  14. I’m sure there are some PB insiders qualified to speak on Kitching my limited reading is Kimberley was a take no prisoners head kicker that occasionally miss kicked & didn’t follow party strategy causing unwanted distractions.

    She seemed more than capable in looking after herself.

    All the press will die down as the Junos get bored & have a limited attention span.

  17. Two headlines from the Canberra Times, both involving Frydenberg’s electoral bribes:

    ———-

    “Cash splash hinted in Josh Frydenberg’s ‘fiscal firepower’ pre-election budget”
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/7663777/fiscal-firepower-cost-of-living-relief-mooted-in-upcoming-budget/?cs=24204

    Frydenberg talking about ‘fiscal firepower’ sounds like he is aiming money at Russia or China.

    ——————–

    “Treasurer Josh Frydenberg has hinted he may back Zed Seselja’s proposal to upgrade Viking Park, revealing the ACT Senator has put forward a “strong case” to build a 10,000 seat venue in Canberra.”
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/7664619/frydenberg-presented-with-strong-case-for-viking-park-upgrade/?cs=14329

    Seselja’s hold on his ACT senate seat must be quite tenuous at this election, with the challenge from David Pocock. Generally he would not need to worry given that a quota is one-third plus one of total votes but the Liberals must be a bit worried this time.

  20. “Welfare recipients and pensioners are likely to miss out.” and no doubt self-funded retirees as well. Oh well I guess it was only a tank full of diesel after all….

  22. BK, all the cartoons are about ScoMo duplicity, inaction on climate change, rising pressure on cost of living and dudding flood victims.

    The 2 exceptions are the Murdoch shills desperately trying to conflate MeanGirlsGate.

  23. Yes when its clear labor is going to win news corp allways tries to create som dought saying it will be a hung parliament but doesnt seem Murdock has as much influence maybi former pm rudd is just grand standing they through the kitchen sink at both andrews and palascheck and labor still won and somyurecks anticks isnt damaging andrews through the herald sun with yunger people friendly jordies and criky would have more influence after nickey sava and smethusrt with the acseption of samantha maiden news corp is reguardid as like australias fox news these days and lost any credability

  25. Michelle Grattan with a sober assessment:

    While it will seem shocking to many people that all this is playing out even before Kitching’s funeral on Monday, it is also relevant that most of the information and claims being put forward are from Kitching’s friends.

    Albanese has denounced the way the Kitching issue has been “politicised”. He defended his senior Senate women, saying “politics is a really tough business”.

    The latter observation is something Kitching would have understood extremely well. In the Victorian Labor Party over the years she was one of the very tough players herself.

    … There’s no doubt Kitching was subjected to harsh treatment by her party. Whether this is judged as “tough politics” or “bullying” is more complex, depending on who is doing the judging. It can be a fine, albeit very important, line between the two.

    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/politics/australian-politics/2022/03/18/kimberley-kitching-bullying-fallout/

  26. Having had months of nothing to go after Albo with it has been educative to see how much built up tension there is in the media to find they have a potential channel of attack. All the media outlets are on it, either because they are conservatively aligned like Murdoch’s mob or they see a chance to ‘balance the books’ to demonstrate a more even handed coverage.
    If Albo waits to speak about this till after the funeral it will give him a chance to reflect on the way the outlets and the LNP have jumped on a woman’s death in an unseemly way and that in itself offers lead-ins to exemplify the track record of the LNP on women’s issues and even some media.

    SfM has been draw out to say (wtte) ‘Albo gone missing etc’ which is no bad thing as it exposes his own predilection to disappearing and perhaps shows that the tactics of Albo are making Morrison impatient for a political win.

    Edit: “The Hun” has gone full psycho today!

  27. AAron seems to be one of those AI bots, where you feed in a few headlines and it generates a mashup for you

    More likely, a few PB posts are being fed in…

  28. I don’t think that the Kitching will go anywhere because no one, apart from political tragics, had ever heard of her.

  29. Kitching’s death is a tragedy.
    It is not mentioned in The West Australian today and I wonder what would be made of it but for the fact we are weeks from an election.
    Not nearly as much I’d venture.

  30. Morning all. Thanks for the roundup BK. I have to say I find the focus on alleged bullying of the sadly deceased Senator Kitching extraordinary in its drama and irrelevance.

    The story includes the possibility that some personal angst between Kitching and some rival Senators caused her stress before her death. There is no suggestion that her death was from anything other than natural causes, and she had a known heart condition. It is a sad story, but does it affect policy, leadership or pre-selections? How many such stories could be told about every party in Canberra?

    Meanwhile, attention is distracted from the Liberal Party which is so factionally riven that one faction is taking court action to ensure member-elected pre-selections happen less than two months from a federal election. How is this not the main story on “internal” politics?

    It is clear that, for the Liberal Party and its media enablers, “divide and distract” is the only tactic they have left.

    Will 51% of Australians be stupid enough to fall for this? Will they re-elect an incompetent, corrupt and direction-less government, which has had no reform agenda since day one, and cannot respond to national disasters even when given warnings by expert forecasters months in advance? I hope not.

    Speaking of direction-less governments, I’ll not be posting much today as I spend a lot of time handing out leaflets helping voters to turf one out. Till tonight.

  31. sprocket_ @ #432 Saturday, March 19th, 2022 – 9:17 am

    AAron seems to be one of those AI bots, where you feed in a few headlines and it generates a mashup for you

    I’m quite enjoying it actually, he’s coming down on the Labor side most of the time. 😉

    Also, considering the woeful lack of spelling and grammar instruction in our schools, he just might be real. 😀

  32. Victoria has recorded another two COVID-related deaths.

    There were 7,847 new COVID-19 infections reported to health authorities on Friday, taking the total number of active infections to 49,022.

    There are 210 patients with the virus in Victorian hospitals, up from 199 a day earlier.

    Of the people in hospital, 23 are in intensive care units and five are on ventilators.

  36. The only problim with morresons stratigy is it lacks any evidence and substence and is based on iva second hand reports or an mp who was found to be a bully and shortin told to quit qwhoes turning one poor article written buy a person from the organization shes working with to undermine albo andalboadopted the 2019 stratigy on shorten charictor buy reinforcing the image as an untrustworvy liyer backt up buy joice and mcron and fact pine said albo was great bloke with enimies to turn albos succesful stratigy against hime isobserd so pine mustof been rong for 20 years

  38. Morning All,
    Thanks BK for an awesome collection for today. It’s a wonderful day here in Melbourne, I hope Adelaide has a good day today as well. Hope all readers and writers on here are feeling well.

    For Background in these cartoons, P & O has halted services and sacked all its 800 staff to be replaced by cheaper workers.
    https://www.news.com.au/travel/travel-updates/incidents/po-ferries-sacks-all-800-staff-and-suspends-services/news-story/869607240d1aa7378c5184a4252c0be2

    UK Cartoons:












    Dave Brown after Howard Pyle:

    Walking the Plank:

  39. I find Aaron’s punctuation takes me back to my teaching days…allow your eyes to tread lightly over the text and you will get the gist. Sadly I have seen the likes when marking the HSC though.

    Those pics with The Rodent remind me of the Elephant in the Room…everything today that is wrong can be sheeted back to that bastard.

  42. Dog’s Brunch @ #586 Saturday, March 19th, 2022 – 9:32 am

    I find Aaron’s punctuation takes me back to my teaching days…allow your eyes to tread lightly over the text and you will get the gist. Sadly I have seen the likes when marking the HSC though.

    I think the lolcatz speling is s’posed to be a feature, not a bug. We are all incorrigible decoders, and drawn to do so. The underlying syntax is surprisingly cogent. I wonder if it is self-referential?
    Edit – yep. It talks to itself.

  43. No im a realpb reader not a ai bot as albo has creatid the impretion moreson isnt trust worvy is hard to see howthe murddock pres can turn this against albo when pine said for years how albo was a good bloke wonder when will know about whats haping with dutton after friendleys great investergation

  45. NSW :

    NSW has recorded 12 further COVID-related deaths in the 24 hours to 4pm yesterday.

    There were 19,060 positive cases reported, with 11,429 detected via rapid antigen tests and and 7,631 through PCR testing.

    There are 1,090 people in hospital, with 29 patients in intensive care.

    ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….

    Victoria :

    Victoria has recorded two more COVID-related deaths and 7,847 new cases.

    It takes the total number of active infections to 49,022.

    There are 210 people in hospital, with 23 in intensive care units and five on ventilators.

  46. BH says:
    Saturday, March 19, 2022 at 9:34 am
    Thanks, BK. That lot will keep me occupied til 6.00ish.

    Trioli has written well in her Newsletter today about political squabbles. Hopefully I’ve linked it OK.

    https://view.mail-list.abc.net.au/?qs=9b925e2b76bfde231986cd2166e67bf7895853a2c5b081242ae017d046c380579bdb08a4c469ccbfaaa5d0a7c171c05775e28aba107054ee36ccd08c43139e9f6cd622f3791f3a87ecdb5b170d522b50e231f364977d87de

    ___________________________________________

    Great article. Puts everything in perspective.

  47. rhwombat @ #36 Saturday, March 19th, 2022 – 8:37 am

    Dog’s Brunch @ #586 Saturday, March 19th, 2022 – 9:32 am

    I find Aaron’s punctuation takes me back to my teaching days…allow your eyes to tread lightly over the text and you will get the gist. Sadly I have seen the likes when marking the HSC though.

    I think the lolcatz speling is a s’posed to be a feature, not a bug. We are all incorrigible decoders, and drawn to do so. The underlying syntax is surprisingly cogent. I wonder if it is self-referential?

    Someone concealing their writing style I think. Which probably means they are quite prominent on the political scene but don’t want to be known as a poster on PB

  48. Terrific spread from BK. The stand out (well, actually I had it on stand by) for me was the revelation for the naive (moi) about the Australian War Memorial being in bed with the arms manufacturers.

    For the sake of underlining

    Since its foundation in 1981, the Medical Association for the Prevention of War has worked for ‘the redirection of the world’s resources away from war and towards peace, health and justice’, with a particular focus on the abolition of all nuclear weapons. It founded ICAN, the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons, which was awarded the 2017 Nobel Peace Prize.

    The AWM’s stated purpose is a solemn one: ‘to commemorate the sacrifice of those Australians who have died in war or on operational service.’ Lockheed Martin’s purpose is ruthlessly self-interested: to maximise profits from global arms sales. In part a war marketeer, its interests are inseparable from war, which it sees as an opportunity. This is as in the protracted human tragedy from which it profits in Yemen and now, in the war in Ukraine, which has caused its stocks to soar. The AWM’s connection with Lockheed Martin is a shocking affront to its stated purpose and represents a loss of principled direction.

    https://johnmenadue.com/casting-lockheed-martin-out-of-the-australian-war-memorial/

  49. Good sober article buy Michell Gratin today do we think that if Labor performs well in Sa it could help in marginal seets such as Boofby plus will the subs no longer being built in sa hurt poling with acseption of last election is mostly reliable in australia

  50. I just did a casual survey of the SMH, Australian, Telegraph and ABC websites.

    Three of them had prominent stories about Kitching. The Telegraph (most-read paper in NSW?) had nothing.

    Sharri Markson (Aus) reckoned Kitching wrote a letter recently complaining about bullying because she’d been dumped from the ALP tactics committee. Not surprising she was dumped, given her leaking to the Libs that questions were coming over Brittany Higgins. This is ‘bullying’? Isn’t a party’s tactics committee entitled to expect its members NOT to tip off the other side? Methinks Kitching did protest too much and Markson straineth at credibility.

    The SMH ran a story about Kitching receiving ‘veiled threats’ from ‘anonymous sources’. Think about that combination: ‘veiled’ and ‘anonymous’. Yet we expect Albo to sort this out?

    Methinks the media clutcheth at straws.

    Oh, and before you Right-wingers say ‘but you hammered Porter’ etc, I remind you that the matters involving Porter and Higgins both involve allegations of sexual assault. At least an order of magnitude beyond what is being said regarding Kitching.

    I’m glad I’m not advising Albo about this, because parts of the media are blowing it up out of all proportion. Wonder why…

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