Morgan: 56-44 to Labor

More of the same from Morgan, plus further poll findings from Utting Research’s WA poll and a monster YouGov survey on carbon emissions.

The fortnightly Roy Morgan federal poll had Labor leading 56-44, in from 56.5-43.5 last time. The primary votes were Coalition 33.5% (down half), Labor 37% (down half), Greens 11.5% (steady), One Nation 3% (down half) and United Australia Party 1% (steady).

The state breakdowns have Labor leading 56.6-43.5 in New South Wales (out from 56-44, a swing of around 9%), 60-40 in Victoria (in from 63.5-36.5, a swing of around 7%), 53-47 in Western Australia (out from 52-48, a swing of around 8.5%), 54.5-45.5 in South Australia (out from 52.5-47.5, a swing of around 4%) and 66.5-33.5 from the small sample in Tasmania (a swing of 10.5%), with the Coalition leading 52-48 in Queensland (a swing to Labor of around 6.5%).

The poll was conducted Thursday, March 3 to Sunday, March 13 from a sample of 1947.

Other poll snippets:

• The West Australian has continued to eke out results of its Utting Research poll, encompassing 750 respondents in the seats of Tangney, Hasluck, Pearce and Swan, from which the voting intention findings were covered here. Leadership ratings from the poll show Scott Morrison on 42% approval and 43% disapproval, which is broadly similar to other polling; Anthony Albanese on 28% approval and 45% disapproval, which is quite a bit worse (the most recent Newspoll breakdown from the state had it at 28% and 45%); and Mark McGowan on 67% approval and 24% disapproval. Further findings from the poll reported yesterday showed 31% saying they were worried about the COVID situation in WA, with 31% not worried; 34% confident hospitals can handle the pressure, with 38% not confident; 49% rating petrol prices will be an issue for them at the federal election, with 41% saying they will not be; and 49% holding that Australia should do more to help Ukraine, with 23% thinking otherwise.

• My own poll trend calculations provide the basis of this review of the situation by CGM Communications, which feature more up-to-date state trend measures than those presently to be found on my BludgerTrack display.

• A YouGov survey of 15,000 respondents, commissioned by the Australian Conservation Foundation, found 29% support for the government’s position on net zero carbon emissions by 2050, 41% believed it did not go far enough and 12% felt it went too far. The sample size allowed for breakdowns by electorate, which can be explored in detail on the Age/Herald site

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

871 comments on “Morgan: 56-44 to Labor”

Comments Page 13 of 18
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  1. I can’t believe this kerfuffle over Kimberley Kitching. The media have got themselves into a tizzy over it. They’re been looking for a pin to pop Albo’s bubble, and they’re piling on like they’ve got one at last. Even La Tingle is in on it by this morning.

    It’s sad that someone died so young, but no-one is suggesting it’s a matter of sexism or gender discrimination.

    By all reports Kitching was becoming an increasingly loose cannon, not a team player. She was cosying up to the Liberals, who were clearly duchessing her, as they duchessed Rudd when he was on the outer with Gillard.

    Her chief mourners, at least in public, are the smarmiest bunch of oleagenous Libs you could imagine.

    It seems her treatment at the hands of Wong, Keneally and Gallagher has been a routine matter of “shape up or ship out”, delivered by the appropriate Party office holders and Shadow Ministers for a Senator clearly going off piste. It would not surprise me to hear that it was left to Labor women to sort out precisely to avoid any suspucion of gender bullying.

    Instead we got “Mean Girls”, for Heaven’s sake,

    If even an old Canberra hand like Tingle believes that a Party has no right to counsel its members and discipline their conduct lest it be automatically classified as “bullying”, then she’s woker than I imagined. The best Tingle can provide is this fatuous comment about “The Politics”:

    Pragmatically, the questions become whether the Kitching story fades or continues after her funeral; whether, even if her angry friends continue to prosecute it, it will be overtaken by the budget in just over a week’s time.

    The realpolitik questions about her death really aren’t about whether her party killed her or not. The questions are about what they reveal about the way Albanese and his team run the party, and how they manage the politics of this dreadful situation.

    Yeah? So what? It’s their party, and not everyone, especially newbies (no matter how well connected) get to have the last say. The Party can run itself, and discipline its members, as they like, within reason.

    As to the idea that the public will obsess over this matter, to the point of ignoring the Budget and presumably all further political developments thereto, all I can say is “In your dreams, Laura” (Scott Morrison might be concerned if that happened as well).

    The “Mean Girls” thing is just that: a manufactured trope, a meme out of popular culture employed to insinuate a lot more nastiness in the mix than actually applies to the situation.

    Reluctance to talk publicly, by way of stand-ups, vox pops and fending off gotcha questioning designed to provide 10 second grabs for hungry (and hostile) media pack under direction from their oligarchical bosses, about anonymous allegations, before the person in question is even in the ground isn’t sinister, or cowardly as Tingle suggests. It’s normal courtesy and human decency in the wake of an unexpected death.

    What’s more revealing about it all is the way the Media have pounced on it like a dog who finally got the bone, feeding off each other, bouncing yarns around like tennis balls at Kooyong, bootstrapping this routine Party matter mixed in with a statustically unlikely death to allege… what? That Anthony Albanese killed Kimberley Kitching? It sounds more like something out of a soap opera, or a cheap Reality TV show than actual reality.

    Kitching had a serious, life-threatening illness that could lead to an early death. Perhaps she really was physically unsuited to the burly burly of politics. And perhaps those who encouraged her to get into and to stay in politics might have warned her about that. Just maybe they’re ladhing out jow becausecthe feel a little guilty about it.

    One thing we can all take away from this ridiculousness is to never trust the MSM. They always revert to type.

  2. Ironically, of course, the people who are being bullied now are Wong et al who have to put up with slurs on their reputations which they can’t really respond to without making matters worse.

  7. The Emma Husar and Kimberly Kitchens would not be a news story if the journalists involved had acted ethically.
    They did not give sufficient context, question all involved to gain the facts or give those who are alleged of wrongdoing a right of reply before the story was published.

    In EH’s case she was slut shamed because the purpose of the story was to harm Labor and there was another present that did not corroborate the accusation.

    In KK case she was idolized because the purpose of the story was to harm Labor. It was 2 years ago and an apology was made.

  8. if the media was independent from influencing politics

    Doubt Abbott , Turnbull and Morrison would ever got the chance to be prime minster

  9. Well slanderyous hearows were fatcher and ragon kitching was basicly another Michial Danby tendid to suport liberals eg Danby has never said anything critical of lnp the best stratigy isas zoomstar said to not take the bate and egnore this no one is talking abbout the Nsw libveral party cought chalinge and failure to preselec its senit ticket and Senater ferivanti wells constent attacks on Morreson and hawke and alix door being impozed on kelley seet

  11. Laura Tingle declares it’s a ‘dreadful situation’. I’ve quickly read the article.

    What ‘dreadful situation’? Kitching proving she can’t be trusted? Kitching’s faction losing a pre-selection tussle (care to recall how the last two Lib PMs got pre-selected)?

    Apparently, the whole thing has been weaponised by Kitching’s death.

    No, its been weaponised by journalists with an agenda.

    I am, above all, disappointed (but, perhaps not surprised) by the lack of substance to the claims in these stories, added to the willingness of journalists to declare it amounts to a ‘dreadful situation.’

  14. If Turnbull leakt tacdickts to laborBolt and co wouldbe labiling him a trator and demanding his exbulltion from the liberal party yet when the same thing happins in labor its bullying meanwhile nsw liberal party havnt finalised seats including senit and marginals and pms right hand man Alix hawke is being attacked

  16. Am I right in saying that Wong and Co “bullying” of Kitching stemmed partially from her reluctance in addressing Climate Change?

  17. Well, colour me surprised …

    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/7663693/the-era-of-the-great-carbon-fraud-is-upon-us/?cs=14264

    We are entering the great era of carbon fraud. Instead of rushing to end fossil fuels, there is going to be a gold rush for carbon offsets, dirty hydrogen and carbon capture and storage (CCS), all designed not to stop climate change, but to actually drive up the consumption of coal, oil and gas.

    …

    The preferred “low emissions” technologies in the federal government’s net zero plan – such as carbon capture and storage and hydrogen made from gas and coal – are overwhelmingly trojan horses facilitating the extraction and combustion of yet more gas and coal. Government investment in these technologies is actually worse than doing nothing on climate change.

    And it’s not just the government, of course. Labor’s policies also rely on the triple chimera of offsets, hydrogen and CCS.

    “Worse than doing nothing” applies to the policies of both major parties.

  18. Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #616 Saturday, March 19th, 2022 – 10:22 am

    Am I right in saying that Wong and Co “bullying” of Kitching stemmed partially from her reluctance in addressing Climate Change?

    Certainly Wong said something which related not having children to not acting on/understanding the importance on climate change, and said she said. She also notes she apologised to her for that remark. It’s a fair thought to hold – does having children make the prospect of a hot planet more relevant (for want of better word). That it looks like Wong assumed it did, and perhaps the way she said it, was where the error(s) lay imo. But heated debate? Glad there were no reporters at our Department meetings.

  21. Poleing myust be bad if libs have to resort to this interesting how the people mentiond as Morresons closist mp friendswith the acseption of Stuart Robbert never get any media Alix hawke is a faction leader who works in the shadows and Mortin is in trouble as he never gets any thing to do and libs in trouble in wa perhaps the libs got poleing that after the invation the China scare was damaging them wonder how its teracking in Chizolm with frydenberg faction member Gladis lou next pezulow will be draged out to warn about boats

  23. Barney in Tanjung Bungasays:
    Saturday, March 19, 2022 at 10:22 am
    Am I right in saying that Wong and Co “bullying” of Kitching stemmed partially from her reluctance in addressing Climate Change?

    —
    As I understand it, she was supporting Coalition Senator comments that children be in school instead of attending climate change protest rallies, for example. She was a maverick on several policy issues and had to be pulled into line by the Senate leadership on several occasions for voicing opinions contrary to Labor’s caucus agreed policy approach. The female version of Mark Latham.

    Without the protective support of Shorten as leader she was at risk of being “managed out”. Standard internal factional party politics morphed into ’cause of death’ and Husar added fuel to the fire. End of story.

  26. Only other labor mps the murdocks liked this much was Danby who attacked Carr constently over china when DAnby served as the member for israil and Anthony Byrrne who apart from being on the securtiity committy achieved next to nothing of note in his20 year corear how ever libs now trying to clame that byrrnes departure is a sign of labor weak on china desbite the fact byrnne was never a minister has no security qualifications and is unknown hopefuly Joe birsgy gets it a sda wouldnt do much the labor wolverines are shrinking now there triying to get Mishar zelinskey in to parliament whoes re inventing him self as a war corespondint and security exbert from his norien hay awu past

  27. Fess:

    “ Wong, Gallagher and Kenneally need to engage in a bit of self reflection over this and learn from it.”

    In my view they should go even harder in grubbing out … the grubs … the grouper wolverines … that leak against the rest of caucus:

    – Who undermined not just the ultimate policy, but the difficult task of policy development in the fraught area of climate change.

    – Who are a throwback to the bitter sectarian police of the 1950s.

    – Who, having lost the fight against adultery, fornication, the gays, abortion, contraception, probably assisted suicide reform, have fallen back on old faithful: White Australia and the ChiComm peril.

    – Who happily engage with the RWNJ war mongers in the LNP to weaponise national security and even human rights as cultcha war totems.

    -Who owe their position in parliament to patronage as a reward for a life time of bitter ugly factional anti democratic fighting in the Victorian ALP. Who form a small group of no more than 4 or so out of a caucus of over 90.

    – Who refuse to be team players and who, after a lifetime of dishing it out, discover that they have remarkably brittle glass jaws, and who seek solace in the blossom of Labor’s mortal enemy – the CPG and the RWNJ’s in the LNP.

    And fess, what exactly happened here? Some ‘harsh words’? two years ago? Really? That’s it? The big issue? Against someone who frankly was a toxic cancer, a fifth columnist on the movement? Even then, the person who said the harsh words apologised two years ago.

    Do you think it verboten that the party leadership – along with 90% of caucus – be very angry that she rented her position out on senate estimates to the media and the LNP wolverines last month just to ask a question that the ASIO chief did not want asked, just so 9/Faix could get some revenge on Chau Chak Wing beating them in court in his defo case?

    When such a stunt severely blunted Albanese’s attack on Morrison and Dutton over them using national security as a weapon against labor, even though it should be – and Albo has acted impeccably as though it is – a strictly bipartisan platform?

    Why shouldn’t the leadership be angry with Kitchings over that? Who did Kitchings think she owed her allegiance to? The Labor party? That doesn’t appear very likely, does it? Palling around in LNP offices late at night, leaking like a sieve against her colleagues and the leadership. Despite the wide spread claims of ‘patriotism’ coming from 9/Faix and to LNP RWNjs, her senate stunt just before her death certainly was no act of patriotism. Merely an ill disciplined exercise in self promotion and mutual tummy rubbing between Kitchings and Labor’s enemies.

    Why shouldn’t that be taken into consideration when considering whether to punch her ticket back into the senate? Or the fact that now the true ‘means machine’ in Victorian politics has collapsed and her patron was no longer Leader, she really had no place in the FPLP going forward had potentially lost pre-selection? And before she could be managed out, it fell to the party leadership in the Senate to discipline her.

    I find it absolutely disgusting that you haver joined with the ever increasing conga-line of prestitutes and LNP RWNJs – all repeating each other as validating ‘sources’ – to criticise Kennelly, Gallagher and Wong for doing just that. Their job.

  28. Fulvio Sammut says:
    Saturday, March 19, 2022 at 10:34 am

    We’ll know AAron’s alter ego on PB when he starts using Capital letters.

    Then the SHOW will really be ON.
    —————————————————

    Aaron is no James Joyce!

  29. Morrison being a clone of Trump , Newsltd and other lib/nats propaganda are being clones of the Trump propaganda media , when it went into full frontal attack on Biden and his son leading into the Election

  30. It’s this kind of evidence that makes Person 24 a compelling witness:

    [‘By late morning on Tuesday, Person 24 had reached snapping point. Choking up, he told Justice Anthony Besanko: “I am not telling any lies, your Honour. I am not making this up. I am as uncomfortable as any other person has been coming through here … I do not want to be here, I am here because I have been subpoenaed.”

    Then came the disconcerting sound, briefly, of a grown man weeping, as he added: “I find it extremely difficult to stomach, having to give evidence against that man in the corner.”

    The “man in the corner” is Roberts-Smith, who is suing The Age and The Sydney Morning Herald over allegations of unlawful killing of prisoners, bullying of fellow soldiers and striking a former lover. He has denied all wrongdoing.’] – SMH.

  31. Ironically, of course, the people who are being bullied now are Wong et al who have to put up with slurs on their reputations which they can’t really respond to without making matters worse.

    Yep

    I hope none of them have a heart condition.

  33. It was 2 years ago

    “It” is at least 3 things – entirely unrelated – that have been conflated:
    * The ‘mean girls’ stuff
    * The factional brawling
    * Kitching’s somewhat unusual heart attack and death at a young age

    The sly implication is that Kitching’s death is somehow related to the “bullying” and the factional games, even though there is no basis for this whatsoever.

    And then Husar comes along with her own tale and it becomes an inchoate mass of unconnected things that somehow can be concocted into a unified whole showing that Labor has a terrible culture leading to DEATH DEATH DEATH.

    Real journalism would tease apart these various threads and work out what the proper context for each was – is there a bullying culture in the ALP, is there evidence for this? What is driving the factional brawl and is this of particular note? How is Kitching’s untimely death being weaponized and by whom and why?

    There have been glimpses of some of this in various pieces, but it gets drowned out by the ALP BULLY FACTIONAL DEATH DEATH DEATH.

    I still don’t see any real story here. It will all be forgotten come election time. Albanese and co just need to hold tight and respond carefully as they have done.

  35. “ I can’t believe this kerfuffle over Kimberley Kitching.”

    I can. This is exactly the sort of LNP-CPG wag the dog moment that the cartel have been looking for since January.

    It has hardened my view, that despite the tremendous loss of political capacitance and awful distraction it would cause, that if – by miracle – labor wins the election there should be a wide ranging Royal Commission into media concentration and diversity with a view to forcibly braking up the the cartels that run the show before the following election.

    I also think there should be an inquiry into Kitchings. Including her husband and their factional mates over the years. Just so a proper account can be recorded and – thrown back in the faces of all the prestitutes who now seek to deify her – for the benefit of the LNP and the ultimate advantage of the media proprietors behind all of this rubbish.

    Of course, until the election, the strong women in Labor should all smile, smile, smile and pretend that they need to ‘do better’ when it truth they have done nothing wrong at all.

  36. This has been going on for over a week now and, unless I’ve missed some new development, we *still* haven’t gotten any actual examples of the bullying that Kitching suffered. If one heat-of-the-moment outburst from Wong is the best they’ve got, well…

  37. – Who happily engage with the RWNJ war mongers in the LNP to weaponise national security and even human rights as cultcha war totems.

    This logic is a bit perverse, imho. Human Rights as a Culture War ‘totem’? It’s not something I have ever really associated with the Right, the defense of Human Rights. In fact, quite the opposite. But in an, ‘my enemy’s enemy is my friend’ way, I guess. 😐

  39. Being an elected to Parliament as member of a party generally entails submission by the individual to the group. This is necessary for electoral success in this country, where signs of internal dissent will attract negative attention from the media.

    If you want to become an MP and think you’re going to be given a “voice”, well think again. You will have a private voice among the colleagues. But the public voice will be collectively-decided. The best response of MPs to this restraint is to become active listeners rather than orators.

    If you’re an MP who can’t curb themselves you’ll eventually become a dissident of one sort or another. Craig Kelly, Cory Bernardi, Pauline Hanson, Julia Banks come to mind. Maybe Kitching was at least a part-time dissident too. If so, she was inevitably going to pay the price for being”outspoken”. Good thing too. MPs are answerable to their voters, to each other, to the Parliament and to their parties. Only at the end of the list do their own convictions come into consideration…and then, they don’t matter a whole lot in the wider scheme of things. They exist to serve the public interest first and last.

    Anyone who cannot accept this should try to run, compete, win and hang on as an Independent, and then see how little they might accomplish. There’s very little point in having a “voice” if no one ever listens to you, or even worse, assails you for using it.

  40. If the imposition of party discipline was a cause of death there would be very few living MPs. Laws would be enacted posthumously most of the time. Actually, perhaps the LRP are largely deceased already. They very rarely set out to pass any legislation. They have no parliamentary business. They might as well be stuffed dummies.

  41. @Aaron Newton.

    I know that working off a phone or tablet makes posting sometimes difficult. God knows I cringe at my own word salad efforts on occasion.

    However, that said, I can barely comprehend yours at all. Could you at least try using sentences and paragraphs please?

  42. I’ve seen federal parliament up close and personal. It can be very collegial at times. At others, not pretty at all. Such is life.

  43. When Shorten was LOTO The Age took every opportunity to paint the forces aligned without him as the darkest of dark operatives in Victorian Labor.

    Hardly a week went by without some issue, real or imagined, being highlighted with value insinuations about Shorten and his allies.

    Now it seems they were the good guys all along.

  44. AAron…..kind of rings a bell….the long lost Ron perhaps. Maybe the prodigal bludger has come home to post. In this case we should sacrifice a hecatomb – a fattened poll could be prepared for the rite. William would be in charge, since he is a demigod around here, and he knows how to carve up numbers.

  45. It’s a fair thought to hold – does having children make the prospect of a hot planet more relevant (for want of better word)

    It’s actually a fair point to put, that having children might change your attitude to certain issues, especially potentially planet-killing ones. I actually don’t see what’s so offensive about it. It’s not like Wong called Kitching “deliberately barren”.

    What say the subject was Education? Perhaps poor literacy standards in 8-11 year olds? Would it be OK to point out that people who didn’t class this as particularly important might be doing so because they didn’t have kids coming home from school unable to spell?

    I didn’t know about Kitching leaking sensitive tactical information to the Liberals. That’s close to unforgiveable.

  46. Big picture
    Aren’t those in the media doing the same thing bullying and putting stress on these women in the labor party

    Will the media outlets and hacks take responsibility if something serious happen to these labor senators health or mental health or even causing death

    Will the media outlets and hacks call for a inquiry into the media for bullying and causing stress which lead to health issues or even death

  47. Andrew_Earlwood says:
    Saturday, March 19, 2022 at 11:13 am
    @Aaron Newton.

    I know that working off a phone or tablet makes posting sometimes difficult. God knows I cringe at my own word salad efforts on occasion.

    However, that said, I can barely comprehend yours at all. Could you at least try using sentences and paragraphs please?

    _____________________________________

    It’s a shame, but it is clear to me that the poster is deliberately jumbling words, spellings and punctuation for shits and giggles. Too many of the variants don’t reflect someone who is genuinely unable to write English – like using ‘buy’ (a non-intuitive spelling) instead of ‘by’.

    It’s the nature of places like this that it attracts arseholes who just want to stir things up.

  48. I’ve had significant experience of church politics.

    The environment is different to party politics: one can never afford to be rude. To misquote Keating, people must be ‘done politely.’

    Former Deputy PM Brian Howe was a Uniting Church Minister. He confided to a colleague of mine that he ‘learned more about politics in the church than he ever did in the ALP.’

    If Kitching was part of a (confidential) church committee and leaked information inappropriately, I would simply have suggested two strategies: 1) informal ‘committee within committee’ discussions take place on vital matters, to which she would not be privy, nor would show know ever took place; and 2) the next time spots on the visible committee were up for re-election, enough nominees would appear to make the election a contest and she would lose.

  49. “ This logic is a bit perverse, imho. Human Rights as a Culture War ‘totem’? It’s not something I have ever really associated with the Right, the defense of Human Rights. In fact, quite the opposite. But in an, ‘my enemy’s enemy is my friend’ way, I guess. ”

    I’m not surprised you are incapable of understanding an obvious point: When a person or group claim to ‘champion universal human rights’ but only against a select few targets, then something else, other than a concern for human rights is going on. In the present case – well look at all the right wing fuglies who after a lifetime ignoring human rights – finally and conveniently start to champion them … just as long as the target is an existing or perceived enemy of theirs. You can get back to me when the right – or Kitchings grouper mates – start going after the Crown Prince, el-Sisi, Hun Sen, the Prime Minister of Israel – and his cabinet, Bolsonaro etc.

    As to the ‘cultcha war’ aspect: one only has to hear the RWNJs rave on about the poor Quigars etc on hate radio or skynoos before rifting into ‘the left are hypocrites’ to understand the point. With guests like the late Senator nodding along to validate the rant.

  50. Rossmcg says:
    Saturday, March 19, 2022 at 11:17 am
    When Shorten was LOTO The Age took every opportunity to paint the forces aligned without him as the darkest of dark operatives in Victorian Labor.

    Hardly a week went by without some issue, real or imagined, being highlighted with value insinuations about Shorten and his allies.

    Now it seems they were the good guys all along.

    _____________________________________

    You just have to look at how the Victorian media (and their lackeys on this site) suddenly canonised Somyurek, just because he decided to fuck up Andrews with the pandemic legislation.

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