The fortnightly Roy Morgan federal poll had Labor leading 56-44, in from 56.5-43.5 last time. The primary votes were Coalition 33.5% (down half), Labor 37% (down half), Greens 11.5% (steady), One Nation 3% (down half) and United Australia Party 1% (steady).
The state breakdowns have Labor leading 56.6-43.5 in New South Wales (out from 56-44, a swing of around 9%), 60-40 in Victoria (in from 63.5-36.5, a swing of around 7%), 53-47 in Western Australia (out from 52-48, a swing of around 8.5%), 54.5-45.5 in South Australia (out from 52.5-47.5, a swing of around 4%) and 66.5-33.5 from the small sample in Tasmania (a swing of 10.5%), with the Coalition leading 52-48 in Queensland (a swing to Labor of around 6.5%).
The poll was conducted Thursday, March 3 to Sunday, March 13 from a sample of 1947.
Other poll snippets:
• The West Australian has continued to eke out results of its Utting Research poll, encompassing 750 respondents in the seats of Tangney, Hasluck, Pearce and Swan, from which the voting intention findings were covered here. Leadership ratings from the poll show Scott Morrison on 42% approval and 43% disapproval, which is broadly similar to other polling; Anthony Albanese on 28% approval and 45% disapproval, which is quite a bit worse (the most recent Newspoll breakdown from the state had it at 28% and 45%); and Mark McGowan on 67% approval and 24% disapproval. Further findings from the poll reported yesterday showed 31% saying they were worried about the COVID situation in WA, with 31% not worried; 34% confident hospitals can handle the pressure, with 38% not confident; 49% rating petrol prices will be an issue for them at the federal election, with 41% saying they will not be; and 49% holding that Australia should do more to help Ukraine, with 23% thinking otherwise.
• My own poll trend calculations provide the basis of this review of the situation by CGM Communications, which feature more up-to-date state trend measures than those presently to be found on my BludgerTrack display.
• A YouGov survey of 15,000 respondents, commissioned by the Australian Conservation Foundation, found 29% support for the government’s position on net zero carbon emissions by 2050, 41% believed it did not go far enough and 12% felt it went too far. The sample size allowed for breakdowns by electorate, which can be explored in detail on the Age/Herald site
Someone in Labor is using Kitching to score factional points. Very poor form. Very poor indeed.
We all know who it is ffs.
Look, after Senator Kitching’s funeral, these things can, and I suspect will, be dealt with. If I was Albo I’d announce Phil Gaetjens is leading an inquiry into it, and we won’t hear anything til after the election.
The 2025 election.
Burgey
We do?
It is interesting that Bill Shorten hasn’t sought to defuse the Kitching ‘death by bullying’ media frenzy. It’s certainly a bad look for him, not Albo.
Victoria, yes we do. See the post immediately below yours.
“Perhaps the submariner debate can bring this thoughtful idea into the mix….”
Why would the UAP use a silhouette of a Russian Oscar Class SSGN on political advertising based on us getting subs immediately??
You know, Oscar……….one like the Kursk that blew up and sunk a few years ago??
Does that imply they will buy them from daS Ruskie??
I smell an advertising FAIL here. 🙂
Possibly someone who wouldn’t want Albo to get a large majority and cement himself as leader. Someone who might even think Albo losing might be good for his chances at the leadership.
Mavis,
The Kitching allegations are part of a Red on Red knife fight, as reported by The Age yesterday.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/labor-factional-brawl-heads-to-high-court-after-senator-s-death-20220317-p5a5jk.html
Not to mention, where the hell Bluto Palmer would get subs from. They’re pretty much unobtainable immediately at this point in time, otherwise Dutts and Morrison would’ve announced it with great fanfare before the election. Out of Palmer’s fat cakehole is the only place I can think of otherwise. 🙂
For no reason than what it has summoned … this needs to end. Which I expect it will soon.
Even an excited media will eventually get bored.
imacca
“Why would the UAP use a silhouette of a Russian Oscar Class SSGN on political advertising based on us getting subs immediately??”
That is pretty funny, considering even the Russians don’t make those any more. The y are cold war vintage; first of those subs went to sea in the era Hunt for Red October was made 😀
When all you know is a search for images on google, this is what you get.
“The catalyst was the absolute lunacy, monstrosity that [a few] individuals can pick and choose who goes into Parliament, and the members handing out the pamphlets on the day have no say in it,” Mr Setches told The Age and The Sydney Morning Herald.
Says the head of the Plumbers Union, who wants to have the final say on who Kitching’s replacement is, via press-ganging the numbers of the said rank and file.
https://www.thebulwark.com/podcast-episode/michael-weiss-who-should-you-believe-about-the-war-2/
This is an absolutely fascinating podcast on the state of play in Ukraine, with verifiable facts and figures, and discussion of the military hardware aspect as it relates to both sides in the war.
Also, Putin’s whereabouts (hint, not in his capital, Moscow) and his pogrom on the leakers to the US.
Palmer can have his choice of this and several other subs immediately:
sprocket/imacca
The other ludicrous aspect of the UAP T shirt is that it suggests we can just snap our fingers and get a nuclear submarine. There is no second hand lot for nuclear subs.
Both UK and USA sub building yards are flat out. We either build them or don’t have them.
Citizen
Exactly!
This reminds me of Dutton too. I always imagine him in charge of a gravy boat.
The Plumbers Union is loyal to Bill Shorten. Always.
The news in politics this morning is all about spite and its variants. It’s absolutely no wonder that voters are repelled by politics.
Shorten essentially blamed his enemies in Victorian Labor and in the caucus for Kitching’s death. Very, very bad form by Shorten. He’s tried to make a martyr of Kitching. He has succeeded only in making bereavement into a spectacle of resentments. He is an idiot. Very obviously, also a sore loser. Shorten has made public just how little influence he now has inside Labor. He’s the past and he clearly feels it too. Not a surprise to see him trying to use a colleague to score points. Very very poor effort from him.
Meanwhile Morrison’s complete failure to comprehend what fairness means is there for all to see. He must live in a colour-coded world. Blue lands and blue peoples are virtuous and are to be favoured. Red lands and red peoples are evil and are to be spurned. He is a total nong. A PM is expected to “govern for all”. Every PM makes such a commitment. He obviously has not the first clue what this actually means. Morrison has always seemed peculiarly stupid to me. His bungling – a daily display – really confirms it.
Really, voters are entitled to wonder wtf is wrong .The “us” and “them” games are thoroughly dismal.
Hopefully in Albo they will find a leader who is not motivated by malice, grievance and envy.
Labor’s first election ad:
https://youtu.be/QuXQmw1wSqM
bakunin:
Friday, March 18, 2022 at 10:29 am
[‘Mavis,
The Kitching allegations are part of a Red on Red knife fight, as reported by The Age yesterday.’]
Thanks for the background to this matter, both of the majors having bitter factional disputes – business as usual it seems.
Comrades, I’ve done some research. As at March 2021, 43% of Labor Members of the House were female and 63% of Labor Senators were female.
Sharri Markson has, as always, exposed the main issue: Labor has a women problem.
“That is pretty funny, considering even the Russians don’t make those any more. The y are cold war vintage; first of those subs went to sea in the era Hunt for Red October was made
When all you know is a search for images on google, this is what you get.”
we have an election campaign in the offing. I expect peak stupid after the SA election, after thats out of the way and focus shifts to the Feds, the intensity of which determined somewhat by that SA result. 🙂
Looking forward to the coverage Sat night.
The 2 that slipped the net have been added. I think the first act for a FICAC with retrospective pwoers will be to find out if there was any quid pro quo in exchange for being given enough time to hide/move their assets. Not that I’m suggesting there was. Just asking a question.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-03-18/oleg-deripaska-gladstone-alumina-refinery-australia-sanction/100920488
@ ven. Responding to me and nath:
“ Andrew_Earlwoodsays:
Friday, March 18, 2022 at 8:19 am
“ It seems to me that PW and KK are being excoriated for not letting Kitching run right over them as leaders of the ALP in the Senate.
Trying to frustrate someone from running their own agenda instead of what the leadership has determined is not bullying.”
Bingo nath. Not just what the leadership has determined either. Caucus as a collective whole.
”
Maybe she thought she was special because she was Captain’s pick.
Hence wanted to spread her specialness.”
________
Bingo again.
Bludging @ #68 Friday, March 18th, 2022 – 10:40 am
Hopefully voters will finally realize that both the major parties are toxic, and vote for minors and independents instead.
Wouldn’t that bloke be out of time to appeal from the SC decision, if it was handed down last year?
Cat
Thanks, I will listen to that podcast.
Speaking of which, this one is interesting/moving. It is a Ukrainian MP speaking from Kyiv. She has some challenging arguments about the reality of world politics now. The follow up speaker are also very good as a counterpoint.
https://podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/train-harder-fight-harder-talking-to-ukraine-mp-kira-rudyk/id136697472?i=1000554330956
This sort of logic is why I think Australia is stuck with increased defence spending and must build the subs, but we must still resist the proliferation of nuclear weapons.
If the unemployment numbers were not fiction and corrupt numbers
The media would be trying to push that to be good news , but nothing from the media
just vindicates every thing the lib/nats do or going to do are lies
imacca
“Why would the UAP use a silhouette of a Russian Oscar Class SSGN on political advertising based on us getting subs immediately??”
Perhaps because Clive could get us one at a special “knock up” price. One (not so) careful owner.
Bungling Scott Morrison….about to be despatched by the voters. Excellent. He has campaigned against himself. His colleagues are campaigning against him too. His party is disintegrating.
Very, very good.
I doubt that even Bill Shorten can save him now.
VE
“I think the first act for a FICAC with retrospective pwoers will be to find out if there was any quid pro quo in exchange for being given enough time to hide/move their assets. Not that I’m suggesting there was. Just asking a question.”
It is a good question. If the two alleged accomplices of Abramovitch and Putin were part owners of Australian mining and energy investments, there would be many other parties with a financial interest in their being given time to negotiate a financially painless exit rather than forcing a sale that might lower the stock prices.
I’m sure honest Angus Taylor will see our interests are protected.
Soc,
I just listened to an interview with a British journalist who has been in Ukraine since the Donbas Separatist war, so he has good contacts, and he stated that Russian POWs in Ukraine are telling him that Russia is no longer using guided missiles but updated WW2 missiles which they are dropping indiscriminately!
Maybe Clive can get the Chinese to build his subs in place of his Titanic II?
this is all part of shortins anger that marles has replaced him as victorian faction bos and kitchings death is being used as a factional exercize plus former lindsay mp bobed up who aparently is close to shorten to triy and damage labor also shorten is using this to distroy marles
The West Australian devotes a bit of space today to Morrison’s attempt to buddy up with McGowan and last night’s $14k a head dinner.
he is quoted defending the cost of the dinner as being the way Liberals have to raise money because they don’t have something like the union movement to fund them.
All those other business donations? Not mentioned.
Also not mentioned in the paper is Kimberley Kitching.
Does Shorten ‘need to spend more time with his family?’
I just had an interesting thought. Does Clive Palmer have any business ties with Russians in Australia?
@socrates:
“ sprocket/imacca
The other ludicrous aspect of the UAP T shirt is that it suggests we can just snap our fingers and get a nuclear submarine. There is no second hand lot for nuclear subs.
Both UK and USA sub building yards are flat out. We either build them or don’t have them.”
Actually, Britain has a parking lot of 20 decommissioned nuclear subs that they don’t know how to dispose of (nuclear reactors still in situ apparently). Perhaps Clive thinks that his ex furniture salesman of a party leader knows how to kick start them. Beautiful!
One caveat on your pessimism. It does seem to me that if Congress authorised an increase in the production rate of Virginia Class subs then, not withstanding the upcoming Columbia Class build program, america might be able to squeeze in a couple of aussie Virginias (ie. basically the block IVs but with all the new electronic and assorted kit from the block Vs but without the VPM) for us in the second half of this decade and a couple more next decade. That might give us enough lead time to get our act together so that we might be able to start building our own in say 15 years or so. I also think the French might also be similarly placed (given that the Suffren class build starts to wind down by 2025 and their next generation SSBN program is only going to be laid down at a drum beat of on boat per every 5 years).
Snappy Tom @ #86 Friday, March 18th, 2022 – 10:53 am
I think so. Sore losers hell bent on burning the house down certainly need a time out.
Andrew_Earlwood @ #87 Friday, March 18th, 2022 – 10:53 am
An Australian built nuclear submarine?
That would be guaranteed to bring our enemies to their knees – with laughter.
Bludging: “Shorten essentially blamed his enemies in Victorian Labor and in the caucus for Kitching’s death… Very very poor effort from him.”
Or maybe just a guy grieving for a friend and colleague that has recently died suddenly and unexpectedly.
P1
From what I’ve heard, the preselection processes the indies run aren’t much better —which is why we’ve got at least two seats in which one of the rejected candidates is running.
I’m told the process which ended up in Haines being selected for Indi wasn’t all sunshine and unicorns.
Player One says:
Friday, March 18, 2022 at 10:46 am
There are more than just a few voters who see things your way. Hundreds of thousands – maybe more than a million – Born-to-be-Libs are going to vote against the Heavy Duty Reactionaries all around the country.
The Lite will probably win a swag of seats, adding to the 6 now on the x-bench. They will take seats from the Liberals and possibly the Nationals too. On a good day, they might win 10 new seats, possibly more than that too.
The LRP face deconstruction. Excellent. such a result would be the best development in Australian politics since the collapse of the UAP – an outfit that bears an uncanny resemblance to the current Liberal Party.
The electorate have the choice – vote for more the same or vote for change. If they opt for change, they will elect a Labor government and they will demolish what remains of the Liberals, who are without any doubt completely incapable of running the country.
Those in the corrupt media and lib/nats who doing this pathetic attempt of trying to get political advantage of someone who died
Defended Christian Porter in some cases attacked the deceased in defending Christen Porter
The same lot who hid Barnaby Joyce affair and alleged sexual assault
Defended the liberal party in Brittany Higgins and others alleged sexual assault
Attacked Grace Tame for not smiling at Scott Morrison
Said nothing about Brittany Higgins being called a lying cow
Nothing was said about Morrison putting the court case of Higgins alleged assault attacker at risk
Pi says:
Friday, March 18, 2022 at 10:58 am
Bludging: “Shorten essentially blamed his enemies in Victorian Labor and in the caucus for Kitching’s death… Very very poor effort from him.”
Or maybe just a guy grieving for a friend and colleague that has recently died suddenly and unexpectedly.
Her death has been politicised. By her factional allies. Bad form. Very bad.
Pi
There is that. Shorten appeared to be in shock when he was interviewed the following morning.
“ An Australian built nuclear submarine?
That would be guaranteed to bring our enemies to their knees – with laughter.”
It would need 15 years of intensive recruitment and training by the overseas prime contractor that we select: in this case either Huntington Inglis or Naval Group. Prohibitively expensive, but probably doable. Dutton actually thinks we can start by 2026. He’s deluded.
zoomster @ #91 Friday, March 18th, 2022 – 10:58 am
Perhaps. But we need to start thinking “outside the box”. Because what’s left “in the box” these days is pretty much just space filler.
Julia Banks
@juliahbanks
·
16m
“Julia’s book is shocking indictment of [Morrison,but]..it is not a surprise. It is also not a surprise that a number of her former colleagues including women whether out of great fear,or great ambition have refused to acknowledge the truth” – Niki Savva
So glad I quit the Libs
If Karvelas, Speers and Maiden want to waste time on trying to same-same the oh-so-“Inside Baseball” Kitching matter, then let them do so.
But unsubstantiated rumours being fed to them by anonymous party termites, allegations couched as vague insinuations, that can never be adequately tested anyway (because the allegations are subjective in nature, and the key witness is dead), and the inflating of an issue before the relevant funeral has even been conducted are unlikely to cut it, reflecting more on the accusers than the accused.
Journalists can interview journalists as much as they like. Taylormade can point ominously to the story still being kept alive on a heart-lung machine a few days after it started. But the reality is that it is a classic, textbook Murdoch bootstrap: the initial hints, the write-up, the pile-on, the repetition by the ABC and other media, the bounce back to Murdoch, the write-up of the write-up where journos talk about what other journos are talking about, and finally the story anonymised and set free, where the originators refer to their very own manufactured yarns as “media reports”.
Karvelas gave the big hint right at the start of the week. Asked by ABC Breakfast host Lisa Millar (herself the daughter of old-style Country Party MHR, Clarrie Millar) why the story was so important, Karvelas replied, “Because it’s in The Australian, and The Australian is our only remaining national broadsheet paper.”
The circular firing squad these people are part of is getting tighter and tighter, it’s aim surer and surer. The more irrelevant they become to an increasinly vast majority of Australians, the more they are convinced that their curation of the news and the bland same-same pap they serve up as “balanced journalism” is vital to the nation, the more irrelevant they become.
As of tomorrow only NSW and our pimple-on-a-pumpkin state, Tasmania, will have Coalition governments. That is the kind of enormity friends of the Liberals should be concerned about, not the “Where is Wenck?” nonsense they obsess over as they move their little flags back and forth across the map table, desperate for a win, any win, while the rumble of the big guns gets nearer, and louder.