Budget polling: day three

Resolve Strategic gives Labor its strongest result yet, but with some odds things going on the breakdowns, plus further good signs for Labor from a Roy Morgan national poll and two South Australian seat polls.

The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age have published the monthly Reseolve Strategic poll has Labor up three points on the primary vote to 38% – two points clear of its previous best result out of the ten polls since this series began in April last year – with the Coalition on 34% (up one on last time, but still its equal second worst result), the Greens up one to 11%, One Nation down one to 2% and the United Australia Party steady on 3%. Resolve Strategic does not provide two-party numbers, but my calculation based on 2019 preference flows has this at 54.7-45.3 in favour of Labor, exceeding their previous best of 53.1-46.9 in the last poll.

The picture of improvement for Labor carries through to a 37-36 lead to Anthony Albanese on preferred prime minister, his first ever lead on this measure from Resolve Strategic and a rather dramatic shift from Morrison’s 39-30 lead last time. Despite this, Scott Morrison’s personal ratings have actually improved slightly after a slump last time, his approval up one to 39% and disapproval down three to 53%, while Anthony Albanese’s are only slightly changed, his approval up two to 38% and disapproval steady on 42%.

The geographic breakdowns show that the change in Labor’s favour comes from what the pollster identifies as “rest of Australia”, meaning all of it except for New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland, the three states for which it deems results worth publishing given sample size constraints. Labor’s primary vote here has rocketed from over three monthly polls from 35% to 40% to 47%, with the Coalition progressing from 33% to 34% to 30%. My accounting of the two-party vote in three largest states is that Labor has gained by less than one point in each over the past month, recording leads of 52.9-47.1 in New South Wales, 54.7-45.3 in Victoria and 51.3-48.7 in Queensland (an unusually narrow gap between Victoria and Queensland).

This month’s gender breakdowns are a bit of a head-scratcher, particularly coming after an Ipsos poll that found Labor’s two-party vote to be 11 points higher among women than men. By my reckoning, Resolve Strategic has it over five points the other way, with Labor leading 57.7-42.3 among men, out from 52.7-47.3 last month, and 52.4-47.6 among women, in from 52.7-47.3. Similar peculiarities emerge in the personal ratings, with Morrison up six on approval among women to 44% and down five on disapproval to 51%, while preferred prime minister among men has flipped from 42-31 in favour of Morrison to 42-35 in favour of Albanese. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1618.

Also out yesterday was a new poll from Roy Morgan, which normally reports fortnightly but seems to have made an exception for budget week, finds Labor recovering much of what it lost in last week’s poll, its two-party preferred having progressed over three polls from 58-42 to 55.5-44.5 to 57-43 in the latest result. Labor bounces four points on the primary vote to 39.5% despite the Coalition being unchanged on 33%, with the Greens down one-and-a-half to 11%, One Nation steady at 3.5% and the United Australia Party steady at 1%, with independents and others down two-and-a-half points to 12%.

The state two-party breakdowns have Labor leading in every state: by 55-45 in New South Wales (out from 53-47, a swing of around 7%), 60.5-39.5 in Victoria (out from 60-40, a swing of around 7.5%), 50.5-49.5 in Queensland (the Coalition led 51-49 last time, the swing now being around 9%), 59-41 in Western Australia (out from 57-43, a swing of around 14.5%), 56-44 in South Australia (in from 63.5-36.5, a swing of around 5.5%) and fully 74-26 from the tiny sample in Tasmania. The poll was conducted last Monday to this Sunday from a sample of 1367.

There is still more good news for Labor in the shape of two seat polls of Liberal-held seats in Adelaide, conducted by uComms for the Australia Institute, which show Labor leading 57-43 in Boothby and 52-48 in Sturt, from respective swings of 8.4% and 8.9%. After allocated results of a forced-response follow-up for the 7.0% who were initially undecided in Boothby, the primary votes are Labor 36.3% (up 1.7% on 2019), Liberal 33.9% (down 11.3%), independent Jo Dyer 8.6%, Greens 11.4% (down 0.6%), One Nation 4.8% and United Australia Party 3.0% (up 1.1%). With the same done for the 11.0% undecided in Sturt, the results are Liberal 38.4% (down 12.2%), Labor 33.0% (up 3.1%), Greens 11.3% (up 0.1%), One Nation 5.0% and United Australia Party 4.1% (up 1.7%).

Also featured are questions on budget response that broadly similar to those of Newspoll with respect to personal impact but quite a lot worse for economic impact, plus questions on the Murray Darling Basin Plan and oil drilling in the Great Australian Bight. The polls were conducted last Wednesday from samples of 801 in Boothby and 809 in Sturt.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,430 comments on “Budget polling: day three”

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  2. Boerwar at 2.23pm

    Ken Wyatt is working on further ways to fail to deliver anything at all meaningful from the Uluru Statement From the Heart.

    He’s very busy being as effective as Turnbull.

  3. If

    1. UAP’s ads are blatantly anti Labor and
    2. the UAP preferences the LNP ahead of Labor everywhere it matters

    Then rest assured a deal has been struck

    Putting the Libs second last or even last in seats that don’t matter is purely just to provide sufficient plausible deniability for the media not to call out what is out and out corruption being repeated again

  4. Dealing with Palmer for preferences has no upside for anyone, and plenty of downside.

    UAP will be looking at a couple of percent of the PV max, and is unlikely to be able to get a UAP HTV into the hands of any great percentage of those, and the people voting UAP are unlikely to follow the HTV anyway. The potential preference gain is negligible.

    On the downside dealing with Palmer will be seen quite negatively by large sections of the population which will damage the PV of whoever does it, and Palmer, of course, won’t be able to resist showboating about how various parties came cap-in-hand to beg him for UAP preferences.

  5. P1 at 2.41pm

    I might be on board with your ‘Boomer Tax’ idea – especially if it doesn’t apply to me!

    What years did one have to be born in to qualify as a Boomer? Anyone?

  6. Now Penny Wong has yet another variation on how to pronounce Albanese.

    Just now on ABC News24, she said: ALBA-KNEES. Last time I heard Senator Wong
    say his name it was ALBA-NAY-SAY.

    It’s not a big matter, but for crying out loud, can’t Labor’s frontbenchers at least get
    on the same page on how to pronounce the leader’s name.

    If it is true that many in the voting public don’t feel they fully know Albanese, then surely
    it can’t help to have various pronunciations of his name going around.

  7. My wife went to the flicks the other week and was bombarded by no less than FIVE federal government related ads. Defence force, “we aren’t climate change deniers”, that sort of thing.

    It’s an absolute scam whoever does it.

  8. alias @ #1156 Thursday, April 7th, 2022 – 4:25 pm

    Now Penny Wong has yet another variation on how to pronounce Albanese.

    Just now on ABC News24, she just said: ALBA-KNEES. Last time I heard Senator Wong
    say his name it was ALBA-NAY-SAY.

    It’s not a big matter, but for crying out loud, can’t Labor’s frontbenchers at least get
    on the same page on how to pronounce the leader’s name.

    If it is true that many in the voting public don’t feel they fully know Albanese, then surely
    it can’t help to have various pronunciations of his name going around.

    Shouldn’t we all just ask fucking Brian Taylor how to pronounce everyone’s name? You know, “the Australian way”?

  9. The ‘Boomer Tax’ might hit the same snag the The Rodent’s suggestion for helping to fund aged care . The greedy children.
    Howard suggested setting up a scheme where people could use equity in their home to help pay for their care. It met with a storm of wailing. Not I might add from the elderly. No, it was their children. Thinking only of mum and dad’s welfare of course .Bur strangely enough the effect on their inheritances kept coming up. 😆 Howard took that balloon down doubly quick smart .
    Given where housing affordability has gone Gen X and The Millenials will be very keen their Boomer parents leave as much as possible when they kick the bucket.

  11. The NSW Govt or Perrotet proposed something similar to the ACT land tax law – of course NSW Labor has opposed it.

    V.difficult to introduce good policy where you dont have bipartisan support. One important aspect of the Hawke Keating reforms in the 80’s where that Howard supported most of them.

    It’s unlikely we will see a bipartisan era again for a long time in this country. We aren’t that far off the States in that regard.

  13. alias at 4:25 pm
    As someone pointed out the other day. That pronunciation comes from a particular Sth. Australian accent . I’m sure our Crow Eater bloggers can explain the intricacies of the ‘dialect’

  14. Poroti, I get the South Australian thing, but in Wong’s case, she has at least two, and perhaps more, ways of saying his name. That can’t be regional right?

  15. Well steve777 you’ve heard boerwar waxing lyrical about the merits of ACT land tax (no stamp duty). Why wont Labor support it in the great State of New South Wales? Such an equitable measure should certainly be party policy?

  16. “Poroti, I get the South Australian thing, but in Wong’s case, she has at least two, and perhaps more, ways of saying his name. That can’t be regional right?”

    Not all brains parse / hear / remember sounds the same way. In definitely share this issue where there are a class of languages, unfortunately relativley large, where I can’t remember / pronounce the names either consistently or correctly. It is often confused with laziness, but it isn’t.

  17. SA accents….its either Pyne witha dash of Downer if you have pretentions, or a subtle blend of Elizabeth bogan with a Yatala lilt or the rest of us who just speak proper good English mate

  18. Robert Leesays:
    Thursday, April 7, 2022 at 1:48 pm
    Re:Bass.

    Things are probably better here than ever before, economically.
    A whole bunch of people have increased their wealth by 30+% due to house prices rising.Businesses are buoyant.Many of Morrison’s issues don’t resonate loudly here.

    The ALP hacks appointed a failed hack as candidate. Archer has put at least some distance between her and Morrison in the values stakes. So, she has as good a chance of retaining the seat against the tide as you can get.
    —
    What a load of bollocks- your how good is Bass story sounds like Scomo or Joshyboy telling us how good we have it Australia. Cost of living issues are biting here as much as anywhere else in Australia for a start. Go back to Liberal HQ and find another meme to publish.

  19. alias at 4:49 pm
    I’ve only heard the aysee but I have not sen/heard much of Wong for a while. Will keep my ears open when I do see her.

    People do adjust their language depending on who they are with. Given she spends so much time moving between two accent groups she could have ended up slipping between the 3 versions , Sth Australian , non Sth Australian and one half way between.
    I can’t see the problem if it reflects some sort of accent.

  20. Interesting Poroti. I get what you mean. We’re all chameleons to some extent. I notice
    some people who say the word “news” as ‘NYOOS’ is some settings but ‘NOOS’ in other
    settings.

  23. You can thank the scourge of gambling and poker machines for filling the coffers with what Death Duties (as they were known) used to provide, and you can thank Bjelke-Petersen for their (DD) removal.

  25. C@tmomma
    We could talk about Morrison being a bullshit artiste but where’s the challenge in that ? Regular breaks from shooting fish in a barrel are needed.

  29. Lars Von Trier @ Thursday, April 7, 2022 at 4:42 pm
    “The NSW Govt or Perrotet proposed something similar to the ACT land tax law – of course NSW Labor has opposed it.

    V.difficult to introduce good policy where you dont have bipartisan support. One important aspect of the Hawke Keating reforms in the 80’s where that Howard supported most of them.

    It’s unlikely we will see a bipartisan era again for a long time in this country. We aren’t that far off the States in that regard.”

    Although over the past two years you have decried Labor voting with the Coalition and have referred to the duopoly on multiple occasions. Just an example:

    “Lars Von Trier says:
    Wednesday, December 8, 2021 at 6:52 pm
    JimmyD says:
    Wednesday, December 8, 2021 at 6:50 pm
    _________________________
    Of course – that’s why the only option is to oppose both members of the duopoly. Same Same but different.”

    What a Ning-nong! At best. That is without ascribing malicious intent.

  30. Another day wasted discussing the many and varied ways Penny Wong pronounces Albanese’s name!?!

    C@tmomma: A small amount of hyperbole there what. I acknowledged at the outset that it’s a minor matter, but again, it’s not entirely inconsequential because there is this notion that Albanese is somehow not terribly well known among so-called “low information” voters. And if that is so, then notwithstanding the ‘Albo’ shortform, it’s a little off-putting to hear the name mangled on repeated occasions by those working closely with him.

    I mean, everyone got on board Palaszczuk’s fairly rapidly even if the agreed-upon pronunciation is out of whack with the name’s ethnic origins. Likewise with Malinauskas and Berejiklian, neither of them particularly easy names to wrap one’s tongue around (leaving aside the preferred ‘Gladys’ option).

  31. Sandman,

    Never voted Liberal. Never will. So take your abuse and shove it sideways.

    Your presumption that because I say something you disagree with, I must be a Liberal is beyond stupidity. It’s a shame you appear to be an ALP supporter. You should join the Liberals and raise both party’s collective IQ’s.

    Saying it as I see it. There isn’t a big swell of anger in Bass. And I associate with a bunch of swinging voters. Archer could well hold.

    Hart is a useless hack who shouldn’t be a candidate in a winnable marginal seat.

  32. in proper Italian it is pronounced Al (as in al dente)-Bah- nez- eh.

    Or as close as I can get it in phonetic English.

    In Australian pidgin dialect, who knows.

  33. The four northern hemisphere derived seasons we follow here are an imposition, underlined by northern hemisphere planting.

    Deciduous native tress are few –

    The two best known deciduous Australian species are the red cedar (Toona ciliata) and the white cedar (Melia azedarach). Both of these occur in subtropical rainforests of Queensland and New South Wales and are popular in cultivation. In Tasmania the deciduous beech (Nothofagus gunnii) can be found.

    Most of my natives here flower in cooler months – the banksias are just reaching a nice size, grevilleas are budding up, etc. It’s a vast country with various climes and we could do well to reappraise how we look at things, at the least focusing on what goes on down here, not up there where the whities with guns and germs came from.

    Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples observe the position of the stars in the sky and follow water, plant and animal cycles as ways of identifying seasonal phenomena. The seasonal calendars of different Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander cultural groups demonstrate an understanding of the interdependence and interrelationships amongst living things. They use their calendars to predict seasonal changes and weather patterns to determine the availability of particular resources or the timing of journeys.[1]

    The seasonal calendars vary according to geographic location, ecological context and cultural interpretation. Specific biotic events, often referred to as bio-indicators, can occur locally or over great distances, enabling accurate predictions of seasonal changes. For instance, the appearance of particular insect species may be an indication that the wet season is approaching, indicating that it is time to harvest yams. Observations of cyclical animal behavioural patterns are also important, for example when the D’harawal people of the Sydney basin area hear the mating cries of tiger quolls, the lillipilli fruit has started to ripen. Once the fruit starts falling, it is a sign for the people of this country to begin their annual journey to the coast, to seek out other seasonal resources.[1]

    Seasonal calendars continue to be used by many groups today. The publication of First Nations’ calendars has revealed the immense scientific knowledge held by the respective communities and has informed Western scientific understandings across a wide range of disciplines, for example, botany, zoology, ecology, meteorology and many more.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indigenous_Australian_seasons

    http://www.bom.gov.au/iwk/climate_culture/Indig_seasons.shtml

  38. Scepticsays:
    Thursday, April 7, 2022 at 5:25 pm
    Palaszczuk … my Apple computer says “palashae”
    ______________________________
    I have Palaszczuk as being worth 36, significantly more if you land it on a double or triple word score…

  41. If land tax is to be discussed (and I don’t know how it can be in a Federal election) can we expect the Peter Jones/Cathy O’Toole duumvirate standing for the NSW Senate

  44. ‘Oakeshott Country says:
    Thursday, April 7, 2022 at 5:34 pm

    If land tax is to be discussed (and I don’t know how it can be in a Federal election) can we expect the Peter Jones/Cathy O’Toole duumvirate standing for the NSW Senate’
    ——————————————–
    In the ACT it was introduced as a rate increase offset by getting rid of the stamp duty on buying a house. As it turns out, we now have both….

  47. ‘Steve777 says:
    Thursday, April 7, 2022 at 5:37 pm

    George Christensen quits the Liberal Party because it’s not right-wing enough.’
    ——————————————-
    Nah. It won’t shift its HQ to Angeles City.

  49. https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/04/06/budget-polling-day-three/comment-page-24/#comment-3858566

    Commonwealth Land Tax is a policy option for the Commonwealth, although it hasn`t be done since the early 1950s when Menzies scrapped it. Unlikely to be proposed.

    Commonwealth funding for states to shift from stamp duty to land tax with a generous transition phase for those who have paid stamp duty recently is another policy option for the Commonwealth.

  50. A terrible hypothetical:

    If Putin, in his desperation, deployed a nuclear weapon in Ukraine (and all that would follow from Nato), would that be enough to save Morrison’s skin?

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