Budget polling: day three

Resolve Strategic gives Labor its strongest result yet, but with some odds things going on the breakdowns, plus further good signs for Labor from a Roy Morgan national poll and two South Australian seat polls.

The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age have published the monthly Reseolve Strategic poll has Labor up three points on the primary vote to 38% – two points clear of its previous best result out of the ten polls since this series began in April last year – with the Coalition on 34% (up one on last time, but still its equal second worst result), the Greens up one to 11%, One Nation down one to 2% and the United Australia Party steady on 3%. Resolve Strategic does not provide two-party numbers, but my calculation based on 2019 preference flows has this at 54.7-45.3 in favour of Labor, exceeding their previous best of 53.1-46.9 in the last poll.

The picture of improvement for Labor carries through to a 37-36 lead to Anthony Albanese on preferred prime minister, his first ever lead on this measure from Resolve Strategic and a rather dramatic shift from Morrison’s 39-30 lead last time. Despite this, Scott Morrison’s personal ratings have actually improved slightly after a slump last time, his approval up one to 39% and disapproval down three to 53%, while Anthony Albanese’s are only slightly changed, his approval up two to 38% and disapproval steady on 42%.

The geographic breakdowns show that the change in Labor’s favour comes from what the pollster identifies as “rest of Australia”, meaning all of it except for New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland, the three states for which it deems results worth publishing given sample size constraints. Labor’s primary vote here has rocketed from over three monthly polls from 35% to 40% to 47%, with the Coalition progressing from 33% to 34% to 30%. My accounting of the two-party vote in three largest states is that Labor has gained by less than one point in each over the past month, recording leads of 52.9-47.1 in New South Wales, 54.7-45.3 in Victoria and 51.3-48.7 in Queensland (an unusually narrow gap between Victoria and Queensland).

This month’s gender breakdowns are a bit of a head-scratcher, particularly coming after an Ipsos poll that found Labor’s two-party vote to be 11 points higher among women than men. By my reckoning, Resolve Strategic has it over five points the other way, with Labor leading 57.7-42.3 among men, out from 52.7-47.3 last month, and 52.4-47.6 among women, in from 52.7-47.3. Similar peculiarities emerge in the personal ratings, with Morrison up six on approval among women to 44% and down five on disapproval to 51%, while preferred prime minister among men has flipped from 42-31 in favour of Morrison to 42-35 in favour of Albanese. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1618.

Also out yesterday was a new poll from Roy Morgan, which normally reports fortnightly but seems to have made an exception for budget week, finds Labor recovering much of what it lost in last week’s poll, its two-party preferred having progressed over three polls from 58-42 to 55.5-44.5 to 57-43 in the latest result. Labor bounces four points on the primary vote to 39.5% despite the Coalition being unchanged on 33%, with the Greens down one-and-a-half to 11%, One Nation steady at 3.5% and the United Australia Party steady at 1%, with independents and others down two-and-a-half points to 12%.

The state two-party breakdowns have Labor leading in every state: by 55-45 in New South Wales (out from 53-47, a swing of around 7%), 60.5-39.5 in Victoria (out from 60-40, a swing of around 7.5%), 50.5-49.5 in Queensland (the Coalition led 51-49 last time, the swing now being around 9%), 59-41 in Western Australia (out from 57-43, a swing of around 14.5%), 56-44 in South Australia (in from 63.5-36.5, a swing of around 5.5%) and fully 74-26 from the tiny sample in Tasmania. The poll was conducted last Monday to this Sunday from a sample of 1367.

There is still more good news for Labor in the shape of two seat polls of Liberal-held seats in Adelaide, conducted by uComms for the Australia Institute, which show Labor leading 57-43 in Boothby and 52-48 in Sturt, from respective swings of 8.4% and 8.9%. After allocated results of a forced-response follow-up for the 7.0% who were initially undecided in Boothby, the primary votes are Labor 36.3% (up 1.7% on 2019), Liberal 33.9% (down 11.3%), independent Jo Dyer 8.6%, Greens 11.4% (down 0.6%), One Nation 4.8% and United Australia Party 3.0% (up 1.1%). With the same done for the 11.0% undecided in Sturt, the results are Liberal 38.4% (down 12.2%), Labor 33.0% (up 3.1%), Greens 11.3% (up 0.1%), One Nation 5.0% and United Australia Party 4.1% (up 1.7%).

Also featured are questions on budget response that broadly similar to those of Newspoll with respect to personal impact but quite a lot worse for economic impact, plus questions on the Murray Darling Basin Plan and oil drilling in the Great Australian Bight. The polls were conducted last Wednesday from samples of 801 in Boothby and 809 in Sturt.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,430 comments on “Budget polling: day three”

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  4. If nuclear weapons were ever to be used in Ukraine or elsewhere, the last person I’d want as PM here would be Morrison.

  7. GG

    The actual original was (in Latin) ‘You too, my son?’ There is a bit of debate about whether Caesar was referring to Brutus as a protoge or to Brutus as to a natural son.

    ‘Et tu, Brute?’ is an invention of Shakespeare.

  8. Agreed Steve777, but I reckon (if I may answer my own hypothetical question) that if
    such horrifying events unfolded during the course of the election campaign, Morrison
    would be almost completely assured of re-election.

    Voters would simply be unwilling to change horses at a time of such shocking uncertainty
    on the global stage.

  10. Apparently, Sutherland Shire is flooding. The pump broke down at the refinery, so there is oil in the floodwater and coming up through drain pipes in houses.

    Where is the member for Cook?

    I don’t hold a bilge pump, mate.

  16. Greensborough Growler @ #1214 Thursday, April 7th, 2022 – 6:01 pm

    Apparently, Sutherland Shire is flooding. The pump broke down at the refinery, so there is oil in the floodwater and coming up through drain pipes in houses.

    Where is the member for Cook?

    I don’t hold a bilge pump, mate.

    He’s probably here on the Central Coast at a Liberal Party fundraiser for the useless Liberal Member for Robertson, Lucy Wicks. The roadshow must go on, chaps. 😐

  18. Bipartisanship is a different thing to having the same M.O.

    Alias – time for a Bex and a good liedown.

    Where in the world is Cathy O’Toole / Peter Jones today?

  19. You say tomartoe, I say tomaytoe…

    I’d reckon there is as much difference in pronunciation between Palashay and Palaszczuk as there is between Albneeze and Albanese as there is between Cozzieosko and Kosciuszko.

    What I do know is that one’s a mountain, another is Premier of Queensland, and the bloke with the glasses is next PM of Australia.

  22. Last I heard they were still in Penrith but not sure if the backpackers were ever paid following the NSWLC campaign.
    A_E will know

  23. Maybe Cathy O’Toole can be repurposed as a #metoo campaigner OC?

    BTW the fireman has returned to the law in Sydney.

  25. Scott Morrison is pronounced in a variety of ways all of them correct ,’Menacing wallpaper’,’bully’, ‘horrible horrible person’ etc etc.

  26. Alpha Zero @ #1192 Thursday, April 7th, 2022 – 5:30 pm

    Scepticsays:
    Thursday, April 7, 2022 at 5:25 pm
    Palaszczuk … my Apple computer says “palashae”
    ______________________________
    I have Palaszczuk as being worth 36, significantly more if you land it on a double or triple word score…

    I didn’t think you could use proper nouns.

  28. People supposedly don’t know who Albanese is but then People supposedly didn’t know who Palasczuk was.
    People supposedly couldn’t pronounce Albanese but then People supposedly couldn’t pronounce Palasczuk.
    People were heartily sick of incumbent Newmans aggression, arrogance and power over his party, People are heartily sick of incumbent Morrison’s aggression, arrogance and power over his party.
    Just some small similarities, might mean nothing, might mean something. Sometimes people just want an adult government.

  29. The backpackers who handed out HTVs for those reprobates were never paid. I would have thought Oakeshott Country, with all his connections, would have known that.

  32. Stephen Miles, on the ball as always:

    Steven Miles
    @StevenJMiles
    BREAKING: Federal Government backflips and will now fund Queensland’s $741 million residential flood recovery package “with a couple of conditions”

    Always read the Ts and Cs with Morrison. I bet, should the Coalition be re-elected, Queenslanders will see no more than a few % of the money promised by Morrison today to get himself out of the Towke pickle.

  34. the odds changed I guess because today can now be ruled out, and now there are but 3 days until parliament sits again….my guess is still Sunday, after a bit of a prayer and sing-song

  35. I read the HC will look at the Camansoli Appeal tomorrow at lunch time. I’d say the only thing of interest is that the Liberal Party sacked the plaintiff to deny him his rights.

  36. My Polish friend’s pronunciation of Palaszczuk is nothing like the way we okkers say it.
    Malinauskas is pretty easy but it’s often shotrtened to Mali anyway.

  37. How hard is it for Albo’s team to set up the press conference with good lighting? On the news he is often squinting with the wind blowing his hair everywhere.

    Morrison always looks like a fucking goof but Albo needs to be 100% attentive to his image.

  38. Le Pen V Macron

    Mrs Cronus speaks French, has watched the French news twice daily for years & we’ve holidayed there on numerous occasions. In her humble opinion (not often wrong by the way), the French turnout for the initial presidential vote is typically low.

    The turnout for the second vote however (almost inevitable as the first vote rarely provides one candidate with more than 50% of the vote) is normally higher as people are motivated to vote against the candidate they definitely don’t want.

    They tend to be a left-leaning people though (liberty, fraternity, equality etc) so although Le Pen is making inroads, Mrs Cronus’ expectation is still that Macron is the favourite.

  39. I’m just glad all the migrant families that came to Australia over the last 70 years have enabled the alphabet to be fully utilised. Prior to the 50’s, so many of the letters were underused and almost redundant. Another victory for a muli-cultural Australia.

  44. “Voters would simply be unwilling to change horses at a time of such shocking uncertainty
    on the global stage”

    A prediction that hopefully will never be tested but I think enough know the horse we are riding is a complete dud, and such an outcome would actually magnify the wave.

  45. Fri/Sat makes way more sense to me than Sun.

    It would avoid the flack from MPs flying into Canberra for a HoR sitting that doesn’t happen.
    But…

  47. My Polish friend’s pronunciation of Palaszczuk is nothing like the way we okkers say it.

    The Polish pronunciation of Kosciuszko would give anyone tongue cramps.

  48. hazza4257 @ #473 Thursday, April 7th, 2022 – 6:33 pm

    How hard is it for Albo’s team to set up the press conference with good lighting? On the news he is often squinting with the wind blowing his hair everywhere.

    Morrison always looks like a fucking goof but Albo needs to be 100% attentive to his image.

    The comb-over struggles big time in the wind.

  49. WWP, as you are on, Musk’s satellite thing is no con. We use it. We have to. It’s brilliant. It’s not cheap, but after some finessing of our issues (mainly tree interference) it’s worth it after the crap we were getting from Turnbull and Abbott’s fluster cuk.

  50. By waiting till Sunday, Morrison presumably can wrong-foot a bunch of Labor MPs by having them prepare to fly to Canberra, or even actually go there. Deprive them of one day in the field. Too conspiratorial?

    The other thing I wondered: Is Morrison now so utterly desperate that he figures offence is the best form of defence, defies all expectations and launches some kind of blitzkrieg on Labor/Albanese during a week of parliamentary sittings that noone is expecting. Try to win some points for gutsiness, that sort of thing. Unlikely but surely not out of the question.

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