Budget polling: day three

Resolve Strategic gives Labor its strongest result yet, but with some odds things going on the breakdowns, plus further good signs for Labor from a Roy Morgan national poll and two South Australian seat polls.

The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age have published the monthly Reseolve Strategic poll has Labor up three points on the primary vote to 38% – two points clear of its previous best result out of the ten polls since this series began in April last year – with the Coalition on 34% (up one on last time, but still its equal second worst result), the Greens up one to 11%, One Nation down one to 2% and the United Australia Party steady on 3%. Resolve Strategic does not provide two-party numbers, but my calculation based on 2019 preference flows has this at 54.7-45.3 in favour of Labor, exceeding their previous best of 53.1-46.9 in the last poll.

The picture of improvement for Labor carries through to a 37-36 lead to Anthony Albanese on preferred prime minister, his first ever lead on this measure from Resolve Strategic and a rather dramatic shift from Morrison’s 39-30 lead last time. Despite this, Scott Morrison’s personal ratings have actually improved slightly after a slump last time, his approval up one to 39% and disapproval down three to 53%, while Anthony Albanese’s are only slightly changed, his approval up two to 38% and disapproval steady on 42%.

The geographic breakdowns show that the change in Labor’s favour comes from what the pollster identifies as “rest of Australia”, meaning all of it except for New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland, the three states for which it deems results worth publishing given sample size constraints. Labor’s primary vote here has rocketed from over three monthly polls from 35% to 40% to 47%, with the Coalition progressing from 33% to 34% to 30%. My accounting of the two-party vote in three largest states is that Labor has gained by less than one point in each over the past month, recording leads of 52.9-47.1 in New South Wales, 54.7-45.3 in Victoria and 51.3-48.7 in Queensland (an unusually narrow gap between Victoria and Queensland).

This month’s gender breakdowns are a bit of a head-scratcher, particularly coming after an Ipsos poll that found Labor’s two-party vote to be 11 points higher among women than men. By my reckoning, Resolve Strategic has it over five points the other way, with Labor leading 57.7-42.3 among men, out from 52.7-47.3 last month, and 52.4-47.6 among women, in from 52.7-47.3. Similar peculiarities emerge in the personal ratings, with Morrison up six on approval among women to 44% and down five on disapproval to 51%, while preferred prime minister among men has flipped from 42-31 in favour of Morrison to 42-35 in favour of Albanese. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1618.

Also out yesterday was a new poll from Roy Morgan, which normally reports fortnightly but seems to have made an exception for budget week, finds Labor recovering much of what it lost in last week’s poll, its two-party preferred having progressed over three polls from 58-42 to 55.5-44.5 to 57-43 in the latest result. Labor bounces four points on the primary vote to 39.5% despite the Coalition being unchanged on 33%, with the Greens down one-and-a-half to 11%, One Nation steady at 3.5% and the United Australia Party steady at 1%, with independents and others down two-and-a-half points to 12%.

The state two-party breakdowns have Labor leading in every state: by 55-45 in New South Wales (out from 53-47, a swing of around 7%), 60.5-39.5 in Victoria (out from 60-40, a swing of around 7.5%), 50.5-49.5 in Queensland (the Coalition led 51-49 last time, the swing now being around 9%), 59-41 in Western Australia (out from 57-43, a swing of around 14.5%), 56-44 in South Australia (in from 63.5-36.5, a swing of around 5.5%) and fully 74-26 from the tiny sample in Tasmania. The poll was conducted last Monday to this Sunday from a sample of 1367.

There is still more good news for Labor in the shape of two seat polls of Liberal-held seats in Adelaide, conducted by uComms for the Australia Institute, which show Labor leading 57-43 in Boothby and 52-48 in Sturt, from respective swings of 8.4% and 8.9%. After allocated results of a forced-response follow-up for the 7.0% who were initially undecided in Boothby, the primary votes are Labor 36.3% (up 1.7% on 2019), Liberal 33.9% (down 11.3%), independent Jo Dyer 8.6%, Greens 11.4% (down 0.6%), One Nation 4.8% and United Australia Party 3.0% (up 1.1%). With the same done for the 11.0% undecided in Sturt, the results are Liberal 38.4% (down 12.2%), Labor 33.0% (up 3.1%), Greens 11.3% (up 0.1%), One Nation 5.0% and United Australia Party 4.1% (up 1.7%).

Also featured are questions on budget response that broadly similar to those of Newspoll with respect to personal impact but quite a lot worse for economic impact, plus questions on the Murray Darling Basin Plan and oil drilling in the Great Australian Bight. The polls were conducted last Wednesday from samples of 801 in Boothby and 809 in Sturt.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,430 comments on “Budget polling: day three”

Comments Page 26 of 29
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  1. ”The 2020s will be the decade of living dangerously”

    Not the time to have the current corrupt, mendacious and incompetent Government in power Canberra, even less so should a Trump or a Trump clone take power in Washington in 2024.

  2. Alias, I think you’re ascribing all but magical powers to Morrison, when in fact he’s a common or garden con man of whom the mob have had a gutful.

    He’s history.

  4. ItzaDream says:
    Thursday, April 7, 2022 at 6:49 pm

    WWP, as you are on, Musk’s satellite thing is no con. We use it. We have to. It’s brilliant. It’s not cheap, but after some finessing of our issues (mainly tree interference) it’s worth it
    ________________________________
    Wait until the upgrades come. It will get even better.

  5. nath @ #1254 Thursday, April 7th, 2022 – 6:54 pm

    ItzaDream says:
    Thursday, April 7, 2022 at 6:49 pm

    WWP, as you are on, Musk’s satellite thing is no con. We use it. We have to. It’s brilliant. It’s not cheap, but after some finessing of our issues (mainly tree interference) it’s worth it
    ________________________________
    Wait until the upgrades come. It will get even better.

    It’s getting crowded up there.

  8. I note that the Tories’ election HQ will be in Queensland (I presume Brisbane), with Mrs. Birminham’s son Simon and Joyce manning the ramparts. I wonder how Queenslanders
    will view Morrison’s backflip today on flood relief?

    Yesterday Morrison was adamant that no federal money would be forthcoming. Twelve hours later, seeing the error of his ways, he said (wwtte) that he needs to be sure people in need get financial support. Ipso facto if they needed financial support today, they most likely needed it yesterday.

    My advice to Birmingham would be to buy an Akruba & RM Willams’ boots, stop talking in monotone & with a forked tongue; up here we like our pollies to be straight talkers. Joyce, on the other hand, will be right at home, even though it’s all an act.

  9. “even less so should a Trump or a Trump clone take power in Washington in 2024.”

    It could be avoided but the likely outcome based on current polling is for Trump to take full control of all three branches of the Federal Govt.

    If this comes to pass there will be a mountain of blame to share but no two individuals will have earned more blame than Mueller and Garland who embody the patheticness and ineffectiveness of a centralist, elite, apolitical response to a serious political threat to the rule of law (which supposedly they support) and democracy.

  10. Clive Palmer has pledged to spend at least $40 million on an advertising blitz for his United Australia Party over the next five weeks, as he seeks to shape the Senate’s balance of power in the next Parliament.

    The billionaire mining magnate, who is running for a Queensland Senate seat, said he personally believed the Greens should be preferenced ahead of the Liberal and Labor parties at the May poll. But he would not reveal how the UAP would direct its supporters to preference the parties, other than to say they would be “the last three” on its how-to-vote cards.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/palmer-to-splash-40-million-on-uap-advertising-during-election-campaign-20220407-p5abpj.html

  12. If this comes to pass there will be a mountain of blame to share but no two individuals will have earned more blame than Mueller and Garland who embody the patheticness and ineffectiveness of a centralist, elite, apolitical response to a serious political threat to the rule of law (which supposedly they support) and democracy.

    Nobody is more to blame for the rise of Trump than the Republican party.

  14. “WWP, as you are on, Musk’s satellite thing is no con. We use it. We have to. It’s brilliant. It’s not cheap, but after some finessing of our issues (mainly tree interference) it’s worth it”

    I don’t think anyone has claimed the satellites deployed can’t do a job. And clearly they are. I can’t remember all the details but in essence the capability of those satellites, the number that need to be deployed and the costs (from memory they need to be replaced in a relatively short time frame) cannot be supported by the customer base they need to be commercially feasible.

    From memory there was a memo from Musk that pretty much confirmed this analysis, barring a technology jump.

    I will have to find and rewatch the analysis which may have even been from the Adam Something guy someone else here linked to. In any event I’ll start my refresh by looking there.

  17. The Toorak Toff says: “My Polish friend’s pronunciation of Palaszczuk is nothing like the way we okkers say it.”

    Annastacia inherited her pronunciation from her dad, Henry, who preceded her as a State MP.

  19. “Nobody is more to blame for the rise of Trump than the Republican party.”

    But they want the credit and the outcome. At best they wanted the outcome in a slightly smarter, more effective person. Even the never Trumpers like the conartists running the Lincoln Project, worked hard to get to the outcomes they got, but were surprised and disappointed in the Trump manifestation of their strategy.

    A bit like blaming the Nazi’s for Hitler.

    If you want freedom and democracy, or to bend the course of history towards justice and freedom, then you need to be able to fight and beat the forces of evil, not blame them when you lose.

    But it is not a binary, of course evil always deserves condemnation, but you can’t expect the criminal to police themselves.

  22. The definition of a woman, Republican party style.

    “I’m going to tell you right now what is a woman,” Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) informed the audience at a GOP event after namechecking Jackson. “This is an easy answer. We’re a creation of God. We came from Adam’s rib. God created us with his hands. We may be the weaker sex — we are the weaker sex — but we are our partner — we are our husband’s wife.”

    Meanwhile Rep. Madison Cawthorn (R-N.C.), already in the news cycle for implying that cocaine and orgies were par for the course on Capitol Hill, decided to extend his moment in the sun by lecturing Nancy Pelosi from the House floor. “Science isn’t Burger King; you can’t just ‘have it your way,’” he said. “Take notes, Madame Speaker. I’m about to define what a woman is for you,” he said. “X chromosomes, no tallywhacker. It’s so simple.”

    And this is where I got the poor OED editor involved, just to make sure I understood exactly what Cawthorn was talking about. She explained that “tallywhacker” is likely an Americanism, a variant of the word “tallywag,” which means “the testicles; the male genitals,” though Merriam-Webster dictionary defines it as “a sea bass of the Atlantic Coast.”

    Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) was asked by a HuffPost reporter to define “woman,” and replied, “Someone who can give birth to a child, a mother, is a woman. Someone who has a uterus is a woman. It doesn’t seem that complicated to me.” When the reporter asked him whether a woman whose uterus was removed via hysterectomy was still a woman, he appeared uncertain: “Yeah. Well, I don’t know, would they?”

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/2022/04/06/republican-woman-definitions/

  23. Lars Von Trier says: “Are you worried about a coop alias?”

    That’s the coop ScoMo built for his kids’ chooks?

  24. Setting the Election date is the only power that keeps Morrison from becoming a forgotten footnote of Australian History. It means he is still important because every day he’s in the news being asked the same question. It’s all he’s got.

  25. You seem to have a dark view of conspiracy type outcomes alias.

    I reckon its pretty straightforward – Albo is the favourite and barring miracle 2.0 in the campaign Albo wins.

  26. Morrison seems to have half of the Trump playbook right.

    Rolling outrages and cluster French Connection UKs constantly so everyone forgets what happened two days ago.

    He’s bad enough now, but could you imagine if mobilising “the base” was a thing in Australia?

  27. You’ll need to elaborate on that question Lars Von Trier. Can’t make head or tail of it.

    That just about canvases all Lars comments for me.

  29. A bit like blaming the Nazi’s for Hitler.

    Not really.

    The Republicans in the Senate had the opportunity to remove him from office but didn’t.

    They’ve had every opportunity since then to distance themselves from him, yet haven’t. The party mainstreamed him and continues to do so, giving credence to his performances and public utterances.

  30. Setting the Election date is the only power that keeps Morrison from becoming a forgotten footnote of Australian History.

    Exactly.

  32. WeWantPaul @ #1264 Thursday, April 7th, 2022 – 7:07 pm

    “WWP, as you are on, Musk’s satellite thing is no con. We use it. We have to. It’s brilliant. It’s not cheap, but after some finessing of our issues (mainly tree interference) it’s worth it”

    I don’t think anyone has claimed the satellites deployed can’t do a job. And clearly they are. I can’t remember all the details but in essence the capability of those satellites, the number that need to be deployed and the costs (from memory they need to be replaced in a relatively short time frame) cannot be supported by the customer base they need to be commercially feasible.

    From memory there was a memo from Musk that pretty much confirmed this analysis, barring a technology jump.

    I will have to find and rewatch the analysis which may have even been from the Adam Something guy someone else here linked to. In any event I’ll start my refresh by looking there.

    Correct, it does a brilliant job. I was just dusting my comment off with personal experience. My issue was that you called Starlink (still under the SpaceX umbrella) “a con” which jarred badly, and I’m only bringing it up now as I wasn’t in a position to respond then.

  33. Donald Trump transformed the Republican Party into the Reality TV political entertainment party, and like any successful TV show, they are a slave to the ratings and the people that tune in.

    Silvio Berlusconi taught all the Populist Authoritarians how it was done, how to combine the two.

  34. Morrison shouldn’t campaign in the pub just too many common people in those sorts of establishments

  36. Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) was asked by a HuffPost reporter to define “woman,” and replied, “Someone who can give birth to a child, a mother, is a woman. Someone who has a uterus is a woman. It doesn’t seem that complicated to me.” When the reporter asked him whether a woman whose uterus was removed via hysterectomy was still a woman, he appeared uncertain: “Yeah. Well, I don’t know, would they?”

    What about someone who never wanted to be a mother and give birth? I know patriarchal conservative Christians don’t like those Women, but women they are nonetheless.

  38. C@tmomma @ #1290 Thursday, April 7th, 2022 – 7:28 pm

    Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) was asked by a HuffPost reporter to define “woman,” and replied, “Someone who can give birth to a child, a mother, is a woman. Someone who has a uterus is a woman. It doesn’t seem that complicated to me.” When the reporter asked him whether a woman whose uterus was removed via hysterectomy was still a woman, he appeared uncertain: “Yeah. Well, I don’t know, would they?”

    What about someone who never wanted to be a mother and give birth? I know patriarchal conservative Christians don’t like those Women, but women they are nonetheless.

    What about Greene’s definition as a husband’s wife? Is an unmarried woman a man?

  40. ‘fess,
    I wasn’t even going to go near Marj’s malarkey! 😆

    Anyway, if she truly believed that crap she’d send herself back to the kitchen and her husband to Congress. 😐

  41. “The Republicans in the Senate had the opportunity to remove him from office but didn’t.

    They’ve had every opportunity since then to distance themselves from him, yet haven’t. The party mainstreamed him and continues to do so, giving credence to his performances and public utterances.”

    Of course they didn’t they are getting the outcomes they always wanted. They almost certainly would have preferred if a Clinton like person, which charisma, a sharp brain, a clean background and an ability to tell.convincing lies, to the bludering fool they got, and yeah that is embarassing, but they stuck with him because he was delivering exactly what they wanted.

    They even flirted with abandoning him when around Jan 6 they perceived he was beaten, but they fell back into line bloody quickly when they realised he was still their ticket to what they want.

    Soo 100% they are culpable, but not as good men who stood by and let evil flourish that in my thesis is the role taken by Mueller and Garland, they wanted the evil to flourish. They were never ever part of a good guy solution. Their course has been consistent and determined from the start of Reagan’s run.

    Another thing they would have changed if they could is that Trump consistently said and showed outloud the bits that should be hidden. They are for stealing the Presidency, like Bush did with the help of the supreme court, but they would much rather hide the theft behind a vaneer of legitimacy. Saying the silent bit out loud, having common racist thugs defile the Capital wasn’t in the plan, but they didn’t even take long to adjust to that.

  42. You have to hand it to Sir Clive he’s just an outrageous shameless rogue. Talking about mandating 3% interest rates for 5 yrs.

    He knows that’s never going to happen yet he still says it at the Press Club.

  43. 7.30 doing it’s best to repeat it’s support of the rise of One Nation with storey on Clive Palmer.

    Best candidate to front 7.30 report would be Shaun Micallef

  44. Oliver I think people on here are ready to crown Albo, but I think ScoMo will campaign to the death. He’s going to spend the next 4-6 weeks going on about can you trust Albo reinforced by the ads.

  45. “What about someone who never wanted to be a mother and give birth? I know patriarchal conservative Christians don’t like those Women, but women they are nonetheless.”

    To a conservative christian they’d be women yes, but a broken, marred by sin, subclass of woman that needed a good pastor to show her God’s path, and if she accepted the light and could and did have children she be a real ‘good’ woman.

    Bit like a pro forma application of conversion therapy theology but to a lesser problem.

  48. The continuing speculation about the election date in the media underlines the shallowness of the political reporting in Australia.
    Asking Morrison, ministers, backbenchers or Uncle Tom Cobley when the election will be is a waste of oxygen.
    Do the reporters think that in the middle of a presser on the central coast Morrison will say “when this is over I’m on the jet to Canberra to see the GG.”
    Or Trent Zimmerman, when asked about it on ABC says “yeah, Scotty rang me today and he’ll call it on Sunday”
    Fact. the election is held no less 33 days after the writs are issued. On a Saturday.
    It’s usually announced on a Sunday to get maximum media coverage on a usually slow news day.
    Count the days and we are down to May 14 or May 21.
    People think Morrison (or is that pronounced More-eee-sun) might go this weekend to avoid parliament next week.
    This is a bloke who is supremely sure of himself and he might think a week of slagging Albanese in the house will work to his advantage.
    Be sure the idiot speaker will give him free rein.

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