Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

Newspoll finds the advantage remaining with Labor on the eve of the federal election campaign, albeit by a narrow margin that they’ve been used to this year.

As related in The Australian, the Coalition opens its campaign for the May 21 election with its least bad Newspoll headline since December, with Labor’s two-party lead at 53-47, in from 54-46 at the last poll a week ago and 55-45 at the previous poll a fortnight earlier. The primary votes are Labor 37% (down one), Coalition 36% (steady), Greens 10% (steady), United Australia Party 4% (up one) and One Nation 3% (steady).

Scott Morrison’s personal ratings are unchanged at 42% approval and 54% disapproval, but his lead as preferred prime minister has widened from 43-42 to 44-39. Albanese is down one on approval to 42% and up one on disapproval to 45%. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1506.

Note also the post immediately below from Adrian Beaumont on the French presidential election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,035 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”

Comments Page 3 of 21
1 2 3 4 … 21

  1. Voters have deserted the federal government in large numbers since the last election in powerful swings that could sweep the Coalition from at least 14 seats including parts of Queensland and Western Australia where it once thought it was safe.

    The findings highlight the challenge for Prime Minister Scott Morrison in winning Australians back to his cause when he starts the campaign with a Coalition primary vote of 34 per cent nationwide, down from 41 per cent at the last election.

    Voters in Queensland have cut their support for the Coalition from 44 per cent at the election to 33 per cent in the first months of this year, while those in Western Australia have slashed their support from 45 per cent to 33 per cent.

    The swings are strong enough to install Labor leader Anthony Albanese in power but reflect the electorate before the start of the official campaign, as Morrison urges voters to avoid the “risk” of Labor while seeking to defend city seats and seize regional seats.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/voters-deserting-coalition-in-queensland-and-wa-resolve-survey-20220410-p5acdx.html

    Does anyone really think these results will be replicated on election day?

  2. I like Alpo and Pi’s analysis and Scott’s positivity. Keep it up, guys! 🙂

    Onwards to the narrow victory that most elections come down to.

  4. Morning all. I agree the potential Teal vote does not appear in this poll, which may mask different shifts.

    If this poll really reflects a love of corruption and short term bribes on the part of Australian people, they are as dumb as rocks.

    Labor could easily go the scare campaign, pointing out the risks of higher interst rates due to Scomo’s disastrously high budget deficit.

  5. Mr Tudge has been on leave since December, with Stuart Robert serving as acting Education Minister, and plans to recontest his suburban Melbourne seat of Aston at the May 21 election.

    A spokesman for Mr Morrison on Sunday said Mr Tudge’s ministerial salary was stopped on December 2, and he wasn’t performing any of his ministerial functions.

    “His former office and staff are assisting Minister Robert to administer the portfolio,” the spokesman said.

    In a statement last month, Mr Morrison’s office said an inquiry by former inspector-general of intelligence, Dr Vivienne Thom, found the evidence before it “does not provide a basis for a finding that Mr Tudge’s conduct breached the Ministerial Standards”.

    Mr Morrison said Mr Tudge had “informed me that in the interests of his family and his own wellbeing, and in order to focus on his re-election as the member for Aston, he is not seeking to return to the frontbench, and I support his decision”.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/pm-says-alan-tudge-still-in-cabinet-despite-standing-aside-from-ministerial-role-20220410-p5acdp.html

    So, he’s not being paid a minister’s salary. He’s not performing any of his ministerial duties. There is another minister and Tudge’s former staff administering the portfolio. These strongly indicate that Tudge is NOT in cabinet anymore.

    So why does SfM lie by saying Tudge is still a member of his cabinet?

  6. As predicted The Panic slipped its moorings last night with the 53-47.

    That still translates to something in the high 70s seat wise for the ALP.

    Basically unless super high swings in Qld and wa abate and the libs get their primary up above the alp by 2 points (so need 3 in primary), Labor wins.

    You can see why Scomo went for the 6 week campaign though – will try and drive up Albos negatives (which has already started) and hope to get that 3 per cent to come home in the last fortnight.

  8. I’m in Queensland and I’m still not sure how things will go up here. I was really confident of the ALP doing well last time but became a bit gloomy when I could feel Shortens lack of cut through nearing the end of the campaign. My feeling this time is that people may not be super enthusiastic about Albo just yet but that they are most certainly not enthusiastic about Scomoe. My gut feeling is that many third party votes that bolstered the LNP last time will find themselves in Labor’s column this time.The state ALP won a handsome majority with under 40%of the PV. I just reckon with all of the lead in the LNPs saddlebag they will lose seats up here and they really can’t afford to lose any. Labor does not have a big hill to climb.

  9. Anyway, at the moment I’m more concerned about whether Cameron Smith can win the US Masters. 🙂
    4 shots behind Scheffler seems a big ask but not impossible.

  11. C@t:

    Most likely. In which case he could’ve said anything: he’s focusing on his family and re-election at this point and he has my full support in that. I’ll be making an announcement about my team in the coming weeks. The current team is the team I’m taking to the election. Anything.

    But instead he opts for the lie as he always does when confronted with something he doesn’t want to directly respond to.

  12. Lars Von Trier says:
    Monday, April 11, 2022 at 6:26 am
    As predicted The Panic slipped its moorings last night with the 53-47.
    ——————————

    No panic from me

    If Labor primary vote is 37% or more that is a swing to Labor of 4% or more and
    If the lib/nats combined primary vote is around 36%,that is a 5.5% swing against them = lost of 20+ seats

  13. Of course this is all entirely consistent with briefly’s 2/3 not a lib plurality analysis – 3% of which is hiding as liberal primary vote and 7% which is hiding in uap/on.

  15. No Scott – 53-47 is a 4.5% uniform swing from last time.

    Still means Albo is in a winning position – but 20 seat hauls are cray cray predictions.

    I am sure if you asked Albo and Gartrell they’d happily take 76 seats this morning.

  16. Lars Von Trier says:
    Monday, April 11, 2022 at 6:43 am
    No Scott – 53-47 is a 4.5% uniform swing from last time.
    ———————–

    That may be in the 2pp

    in the primary vote 2019 41.5 – 36, it would be a 5.5% against the Lib/nats

  17. Lars Von Trier

    Yes Labor would be happy to get into government on 76 seats, i think they will get another 8 above that

  18. Kore being cited as credible?

    From Kevin Bonham’s website:

    KORE is the successor to Voter Choice whose founder has a poor track record in published testable pre-election polls and has made some very weird claims about polls and elections on social media (see Voter Choice section of my pollster guide). The strange methods of KORE include openly advertising for survey respondents on Twitter (which is just asking for politically motivated flooding, which seems to have happened to it at least twice already, including once by people who disliked Daniel Andrews). In addition to the social media samples KORE has said these seats received “snowball and email targeted recruitment” but without further detail.

  19. So your revising your Labor win estimate down to 15 seats Scott already?

    Doesn’t sound too confident to me?

  23. Lars Von Trier says:
    Monday, April 11, 2022 at 6:26 am
    You can see why Scomo went for the 6 week campaign though.
    —
    If the very damaging leaks against Morrison continue (and they probably will), he’s an idiot for allowing 6 weeks of intense scrutiny about his character.

  24. The 14 seats in danger for the Coalition in this analysis are Bass, Chisholm, Boothby, Braddon, Reid, Swan, Longman, Higgins, Leichhardt, Robertson, Casey, Dickson, Deakin and Brisbane.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/voters-deserting-coalition-in-queensland-and-wa-resolve-survey-20220410-p5acdx.html

    Didn’t I tell you Casey was a smokey? Retiring popular, long term MP.

    I’d like Dickson to be a goer but I just think the people of Dickson are comfortable with their copper.

  25. C@t
    Yes cat most elections are won by narrow margins.
    But how the fuck is Morrison’s imo polling so good.
    And I do think it’s miraculously good considering the monumental disaster this government has proven itself.
    Voters don’t give a flying fig about undisputed corruption & the dismantling of social policy.
    Albanese deserves to win & win big.
    Hopefully the end result will be a monumental surprise & Albo wins in a landslide.
    For me anything less is a stain on the Aussie voters.

  26. Lars Von Trier says:
    Monday, April 11, 2022 at 6:56 am
    So your revising your Labor win estimate down to 15 seats Scott already?

    Doesn’t sound too confident to me?
    ————————————-
    84 Seats is a comfortable Labor majority

    Depends on the lib/nats combined primary vote

    And i doubt if the Lib/nats combined primary vote was 36%- the 2pp will be 47%

    It would be closer to 44/45% and something like Labor 55/54 – 45/46

  29. Morrison is off-side with too many categories of voters to close the gap.
    One poll will not swing back the Teals, the dark Greens, WA, SA,Vic, Gladys lovers, Barnaby bushies, Western Sydney, Women, the Scientists, the Catholics, Manly supporters and the right wing of his party.
    Morrison should enjoy it while he can.
    Not enough of voters will fall in behind the dodgy spruiker from the dodgy American faith Church.
    Morrison’s cabinet is as dodgy as!
    Morrison will leave a mess behind him with not even the slightest consideration for those remaining.
    The Morrison memoirs will be in the budget bin before before Barnaby has another beer!

  31. Scott @ #112 Monday, April 11th, 2022 – 6:39 am

    Lars Von Trier says:
    Monday, April 11, 2022 at 6:26 am
    As predicted The Panic slipped its moorings last night with the 53-47.
    ——————————

    No panic from me

    If Labor primary vote is 37% or more that is a swing to Labor of 4% or more and
    If the lib/nats combined primary vote is around 36%,that is a 5.5% swing against them = lost of 20+ seats

    You really think these numbers will hold after Scotty’s had six weeks to soften the voters up and grind Albo down with the medias help?
    The difference between a box of rocks and the average voter is nothing.
    There’s no difference.
    Except there maybe at least a 50/50 chance a box of rocks wouldn’t vote for Morrison.
    I managed a brief period of denial but this morning realised how delusional that was.

  32. ltep says:
    Monday, April 11, 2022 at 6:55 am
    Kore being cited as credible?

    Yes, the point KB makes is credible
    But Morrison knows the fight is seat by seat. Does countrywide polling pick up whether Teals will prevail in the very limited number of seats they stand in?

    I suspect this election will be a lot harder to predict

  34. Maude Lynne @ #129 Monday, April 11th, 2022 – 7:19 am

    ltep says:
    Monday, April 11, 2022 at 6:55 am
    Kore being cited as credible?

    Yes, the point KB makes is credible
    But Morrison knows the fight is seat by seat. Does countrywide polling pick up whether Teals will prevail in the very limited number of seats they stand in?

    I suspect this election will be a lot harder to predict

    You reckon?
    Miracle Man 2.0 and his band of crooks – 77 seats.

  35. people have not warmed to albanese he sort of struggles to stand for things and when questioned tends to stumble as does morrison but usually makes long anowsments then invites a minister to speakthen a burocrat so he does not get the opputunity to be questioned even though he is one of our worst pms and stuft up evrything from vackseens to rap tests his slogans cut through like if you have a go tyiou get a go

  36. To c@t, yes I do, if she loses it will be to the green. I spend most of my time in a part of her electorate and she’s a good local member. I am enrolled in Richmond where another green ( local comedy personality Mandy Nolan) is trying to unseat a good representative in Justine Elliot. Griffith is a funny seat going way back, I remember as a kid in the 70s handing out cards in Bulimba and trying to unseat Don Cameron. He was always nice to us but we wanted him to lose ( none of the sausages the ABC get so carried away about back then) Benny Humphries ran the local petrol station and succeeded in knocking off the libs he was good mates with my grandfather. I think from my faulty memory he won his seat in 77 in an otherwise depressing result for Labor and my hero Gough. My brother tells me he once saw Gough roll up to visit my grandfather who lived next door prior to being PM. We were also close to Tommy Burns who brought back Mao badges for us from their trip to China. Anyway that’s a longwinded explanation of my connection to Griffith. Anyhow Rudd was our member for a long time and often just scraped in and even lost once ( I think , but in typical Rudd fashion came back three years later) this time the mood is against the LNP after the last weird election. I note that at state level our guy Joe Kelly has really entrenched himself and I expect Terri will do that this time. Once again I see her main threat as the greens who present a more middle class private school face to the left of centre scene.

  37. Mundo
    “ You reckon?
    Miracle Man 2.0 and his band of crooks – 77 seats.”
    More likely a hung parliament, no one party with majority
    The media campaign will be relentless against Albo

  38. ithink his dagey dad persona would apeel to a lot of men such a blue colar workers like coal miners and tradies from western sydney how ever read will be a problim whith his attacks on china albanese does not have much personality and with his best performers being in the senot wong kenearly and galligher he may struggle in the house

  40. mundo says:
    Monday, April 11, 2022 at 7:18 am

    You really think these numbers will hold after Scotty’s had six weeks to soften the voters up and grind Albo down with the medias help?
    The difference between a box of rocks and the average voter is nothing.
    ——————————-

    Since the opinion polls have change the way they are predicting , the recent election results show they over estimated the lib/nats combined primary vote and under estimated Labor primary vote

    It will be interesting to see how close they will be on federal election night

  41. Good morning Dawn Patrollers

    Simon Benson in The Australian declares, “It’s game on as parties are no longer polls apart in Newspoll”.
    https://amp.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/election-2022-its-game-on-as-parties-are-no-longer-polls-apart-in-newspoll/news-story/958f761d078ee101bac215af11be6d17
    Dennis Shanahan is not so upbeat, saying Morrison will need a bigger “miracle” than last time.
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/election-history-says-morrison-needs-bigger-miracle/news-story/7c6c66f8513f7f16bd7a66fd6240744f
    Settle in for a long grind: this federal election is going to be core, brutal Morrison, predicts Katherine Murphy.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/apr/10/settle-in-for-a-long-grind-election-is-going-to-be-core-brutal-scott-morrison
    Chris Wallace lays out how Labor can win the 2022 election. She makes some very good points.
    https://theconversation.com/how-the-coalition-can-win-the-2022-election-179942
    Mark Kenny does the same.
    https://theconversation.com/how-labor-can-win-the-2022-election-179750
    Labor may be streets ahead in the polls but Scott Morrison is now in his element. His government is a shambles but, with the three major media houses backing him, and the ABC and others truckling to their daily news agendas, Anthony Albanese will have to win this thing, not wait for Scott Morrison to lose it, writes Michael West about what he describes as “the dirty election”.
    https://www.michaelwest.com.au/the-dirty-election-how-the-cards-are-stacked-in-favour-of-scott-morrison/
    In an election following years of disasters, Australians need more than campaign trail soundbites, says Lenore Taylor.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/commentisfree/2022/apr/10/in-an-election-following-years-of-disasters-australians-need-more-than-campaign-trail-soundbites
    The AFR editorial says that public and media pressure should press both Labor and Coalition over the next six weeks to clearly articulate and distinguish their approaches to the challenges Australia faces. Yes, please!
    https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/election-should-be-about-a-mandate-for-budget-repair-20220407-p5abt7
    Alan Kohler outlines the three challenges for whoever wins the election.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/finance-news/2022/04/11/alan-kohler-the-three-challenges-for-whoever-wins-the-election/
    Peter Martin tells us that top economists care about climate change more than any other election issue.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/finance-news/2022/04/11/election-economists-climate-change/
    Michelle Grattan looks at the leaders’ opening pitches.
    https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-morrison-talks-risk-albanese-spruiks-opportunity-in-opening-pitches-181039
    “As the election campaign begins, what do the polls say, and can we trust them this time?”, asks Adrian Beaumont.
    https://theconversation.com/as-the-election-campaign-begins-what-do-the-polls-say-and-can-we-trust-them-this-time-180318
    Sean Kelly refers to Morrison saying people are tired of politics and writes that hid habits that are too long to list, but that might be summed up by the belief that there is no mistake a government might make that can’t be fixed with a good photo op, a sharp ad and a few artfully deflected questions.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/careful-they-might-hear-a-splash-20220409-p5ac8t.html
    Scott Morrison has told voters he might be unpopular but is still their best bet. Anthony Albanese urges them to lift their ambitions, writes Phil Coorey.
    https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/morrison-and-albanese-come-out-swinging-20220410-p5acby
    Coorey reckons character will be the main game on May 21.
    https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/character-not-policy-will-be-the-main-game-on-may-21-20220405-p5aav2
    David Crowe reckons we have seen an underwhelming campaign start as the parties follow old election templates.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/underwhelming-campaign-start-as-parties-follow-old-election-template-20220410-p5acdy.html
    Paul Kelly frames Election 202 as “Unknown Albanese v a scrapping underdog in Scott Morrison”.
    https://amp.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/election-2022-unknown-albanese-v-a-scrapping-underdog-in-scott-morrison/news-story/0fc9b00e64e47581383c0cc247188749
    No one in the Prime Minister’s camp puts it quite this way, but they are relying on the deeper divisions within the electorate to save the government from itself, writes George Megalogenis.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/scott-morrison-s-last-best-hope-an-electorate-divided-and-disengaged-20220407-p5abnl.html
    With the start of the federal election campaign, Scott Morrison is now free to concentrate on doing what he does best. Making announcements, writes Peter Hartcher who thinks the whole election will come down to trust.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/leaders-trading-on-trust-as-announcement-season-begins-20220410-p5acf9.html
    Tony Wright tells us how Anthony Albanese emerged from the shadows to become a leader in the spotlight.
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/how-anthony-albanese-emerged-from-the-shadows-to-become-a-leader-in-the-spotlight-20220401-p5aa64.html
    The SMH editorial says that the election campaign should be about issues and not image.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/election-campaign-should-be-about-issues-and-not-image-20220410-p5acek.html
    The Coalition’s strongholds of Queensland and Western Australia are in danger, with new research showing the vote has dropped significantly since the 2019 election, writes David Crowe.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/voters-deserting-coalition-in-queensland-and-wa-resolve-survey-20220410-p5acdx.html
    The economy is in astonishing shape but not all voters feel it – and neither party is confronting the deeper questions, argues Jo Masters.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/the-economy-s-in-astonishing-shape-but-not-all-voters-feel-it-and-neither-party-is-confronting-the-deeper-questions-20220410-p5acdm.html
    Going ahead with stage 3 tax cuts would be irresponsible, declares Ross Gittins who poibts to the undeniable fact that they will be “unfunded”.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/going-ahead-with-stage-3-tax-cuts-would-be-irresponsible-20220410-p5acc4.html
    Andrew Probyn says Morrison is galloping into a race where he is already a furlong behind his patient rival.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-04-10/morrison-albanese-federal-election-campaigns-defined/100980796
    An ombudsman has dismissed claims from the Prime Minister’s Department that national cabinet documents are secret and exempt from freedom of information laws, saying the argument is “defective”.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/7693006/pmc-claims-of-cabinet-confidentiality-defective-sa-ombudsman/?cs=14329
    The PM is having a bit of trouble with Tudge’s position now and if he wins. Who will take Health is also an issue for him to handle.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/pm-says-alan-tudge-still-in-cabinet-despite-standing-aside-from-ministerial-role-20220410-p5acdp.html
    Jon Faine says, “We must save Melbourne from becoming a donut city”.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/we-must-save-melbourne-from-becoming-a-donut-city-20220408-p5abyt.html
    Former Deputy Premier of NSW, John Watkins, describes his journey with Parkinson’s Disease.
    https://www.smh.com.au/healthcare/the-crappiest-lucky-dip-my-parkinson-s-journey-by-a-former-deputy-premier-20220410-p5acbq.html
    Australia’s dentists have reported a huge increase in the number of patients who’ve damaged their teeth by repeatedly grinding them during two years of COVID-19 lockdowns.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/covid-grind-causes-new-pandemic-of-broken-teeth-dentists-warn-20220406-p5aba0.html
    Alexander Bortnikov, head of the Russian security service, was close to President Vladimir Putin but Ukrainian intelligence says the pair have fallen out, writes Monica Attard.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/might-this-be-the-man-to-lead-a-coup-against-putin-20220409-p5ac9m.html
    Exit polls after the first round of voting in the French presidential elections yesterday show President Emmanuel Macron and far-right candidate Marine Le Pen are on track for a second-round shootout.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/exit-polls-show-macron-and-le-pen-on-track-for-second-round-shootout-20220411-p5ach4.html
    A key Republican on the House January 6 committee disputed a report which said the panel was split over whether to refer Donald Trump to the Department of Justice for criminal charges regarding his attempt to overturn the 2020 election, leading to the Capitol attack.
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/apr/10/liz-cheney-disputes-report-january-6-panel-split-trump-criminal-referral
    Biden needs to start going after large corporations if he wants to win again, argues Robert Reich.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/apr/10/biden-large-corporations-2024-election

    Cartoon Corner

    David Rowe

    Peter Broelman

    Matt Golding


    Joe Benke


    Jim Pavlidis

    Mark Knight

    Badiucao

    Leak

    From the US





  43. Maude Lynne @ #134 Monday, April 11th, 2022 – 7:27 am

    Mundo
    “ You reckon?
    Miracle Man 2.0 and his band of crooks – 77 seats.”
    More likely a hung parliament, no one party with majority
    The media campaign will be relentless against Albo

    Yep. Checked out the commercial telly programs this morning and the ABC.
    Going to bring my household news media blackout forward by 6 weeks or I’ll lose the will to live.
    Albo doesn’t have a chance against Bullshit Man.
    The voters are sitting ducks.
    Albo on ABC now sounding a bit tired, nervous and rattled.
    Day 1.

  45. I still stand by my prediction that the federal election result will be called early around 7-7:30pm on election night
    Labor wins government
    If the trend is showing the Lib/nats combined primary vote will not reach 40%

  46. I believe there are really only two likely results ALP majority or hung parliament. Here in Queensland AP ruled with the help of independents for three years including the Katter boys. Next election despite the bitter anti ALP coverage by local Murdochcracy rag she gained a majority. She increased her majority three years later again with bitter opposition from local Murdochracy rag and the LNP went even further backwards into the doldrums. I think Albo is the sort who would make his reputation in a hung parliament and actually become very popular. I still think an ALP majority is very likely but I cannot see under any circumstances a Scomoe win. No one trusts the guy as he is a slippery dodgy right wing Christian snake oil man and we are a secular country.

  47. PK spinning the Newspoll 53-47, which would result in a clear ALP majority, into a political failure, and evidence that now people are taking a closer look, they don’t like what they see. I have never had much regard for PK.

  49. Why would the LNP choose the robotic Anne Rushton as their official campaign spokesperson? I can only think it’s because she’s too colourless for most people to find her deeply objectionable – unlike most of the LNP frontbench

Comments Page 3 of 21
1 2 3 4 … 21

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *