Roy Morgan seems to have moved to weekly reporting of its federal voting intention numbers, with a poll published last night showing Labor’s two-party lead in from 58-42 to 57-43 through a survey period that ran from last Monday to Sunday. However, this masks a three-and-a-half point drop in Labor’s primary vote to 36%, which only does minor damage on two-party preferred because the Coalition is also down, by half a point to 32.5%, and Labor has done even better than usual this time on Morgan’s respondent-allocated preference flow. If preferences from 2019 were applied to these figures, the result would come out to about 55-45, in from amount 56.5-43.5 last time. For the minor parties, the Greens and One Nation are each up one-and-a-half, to 12.5% and 5% respectively – respectively their equal best and actual best results for the term – and the United Australia Party is up half a point to 1.5%.
The state breakdowns have Labor leading 55-45 in New South Wales (unchanged on last week, a swing of around 7.5%), 58-42 in Victoria (in from 60.5-39.5, a swing of around 5%), 50.5-49.5 in Queensland (unchanged, a swing of around 9%), 63.5-36.5 in Western Australia (out from 59-41, a swing of fully 19%), 53-47 in South Australia (in from 56-44, a swing of around 2.5%) and 69-31 in Tasmania. The sample size for the poll was 1384.
Also:
• The Australian that Dawson MP George Christensen, having parted company with the Liberal National Party last week ahead of his presumed retirement at the election, will today announce he will run as a candidate for One Nation at the election, though it is not yet clear if it will be for his existing seat. The report also reveals One Nation will run in all 151 lower house seats, whereas it only did so in 59 seats in 2019.
• Labor’s awkward start to the campaign has caused betting markets to tighten significantly: Sportsbet is now offering $1.63 on Labor, out from $1.45 at the start of the campaign, while the Coalition is in from $3.20 to $2.30.
• Australian Development Strategies, run by former Labor Senator John Black, has a map showing federal electorates’ concentrations of 35-to-49 year olds in the highest income quartile, whom he classifies as “maturing traditional swinging voters and aspirational voters in the ages at which they traditionally begin to move their vote from Labor to the Coalition”. We’ll see about that, but in any case it’s a nice and easily navigable map of federal electoral boundaries.
Poroti…………
In your earlier blaze against the West, I think you might have missed the gem piece by a one Kimberly Caines – a recent addition to the Stokes’ stable in Perth…
This will be a long one………………
She is supposedly following the election campaign on the road and she starts off in a good old-fashioned, even-handed way under the header….”On the election campaign with beleaguered Albanese”…………………………..This sets the tone for the rest of her offering…
Looking about 12 years of age from her photo (reverse ageism from me) she tells us that …..”….not knowing the national rate and cash rate figure shows the Opposition leader is not ready for the top job…”
She then goes on to relate….”the ALP (camp) appears to be more secretive…
And worse, compared to Morrison’s team, apparently poor Kimberly was….. “….not told where we could eat – dining and grocery options….In Launceston for two days, many of us went without wholesome meals for many hours because we were located in areas where food was not easily accessible…” (Clearly due to those parsimonious Labor bastards and their useless leader……)
Can one really believe this shit from a so-called capital city daily?
But wait there’s more from poor, downtrodden, Kimberly…………………..
“We were offered a muesli bar on one occasion by Albanese’s camp and were given plenty of water……………..”
Bur wait!…………..”Stay tune for more stories behind the scenes of the election campaign in my weekly columns…………..”
Well, Kimberly, with this amount of crap you have written so far, all you have done is demonstrate just hopeless you and your paper have become……
Perhaps she was at the media/Morrison piss-up last night?
Maybe the latest newspoll was just a “Blimp”
I am giving Bandt a day off from being slagged, despite some of his responses on other topics, for the way he trashed the reporter who tried the gotcha on wage growth stats. That was great.
Trump could afford to treat the US press with disdain because half of them genuflected at his feet at all times and the other half while rabidly against him originally gave him wall to wall coverage of everything he said (a mistake right wing media do not make with the people they hate) under the hopefully now discredited “sunlight is the best disinfectant” theory of political communication. Albo has the benefit of neither factor.
Sam Maiden’s ‘EXCLUSIVE’ on Deve’s deleted Twitter feed was discussed here last week. Perhaps Maiden could peruse these pages….
This included the introduction, to me at least, of the term TERF – to which Deve subscribes to. As presumably Morrison does as well, hand picking her for this natural Liberal seat…
TERF (/ˈtɜːrf/) is an acronym for trans-exclusionary radical feminist. First recorded in 2008,[1] the term originally applied to the minority[2] of feminists espousing sentiments that other feminists considered transphobic, such as the rejection of the assertion that trans women are women, the exclusion of trans women from women’s spaces, and opposition to transgender rights legislation. The meaning has since expanded to refer more broadly to people with trans-exclusionary views who may have no involvement with radical feminism.[3][4]
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/TERF
Tricot
Gold 😆 Journo petals on the Sandakan march .
So … if I’m a politician and I lose my seat I get a lazy $100k? It’s almost as if we got 150 grifters in a room and asked them to come up with their own remuneration package.
I was in the regular Army for 10 years, from recollection after exiting from the Army they agreed to discharge me in Brisbane (my last posting was Melbourne) and that was about it. Certainly I didn’t get $100k.
FFS our Federal politicians basically get bonus payments to breath and additional payments if they need to walk more than three metres.
Oh, on Kimberly Caines…Just done some quick research and see she is an import from over East…Her pedigree of Murdoch (5 years apparently), thence to Channel 9 and now Stokes – says it all…..A lass full of integrity…..However, that a Senior Political journalist (so-say) could write such pathetic rubbish confirms the turgid nature of so-called political journalism at the moment…….Thank goodness she is saving her skills for just once a week……
Jonathan Lea on Twitter complaining about Albanese cutting his news conference short, getting plenty of blowback in response.
WeWantPaul says:
Wednesday, April 13, 2022 at 1:54 pm
Who knows actually if there is never a new coal mine for the coal used in steel making, when would current resources underlying existing projects run out?
Actually very quickly. The Price of Thermal Coal alone went over $US300 per tonne yesterday. Premium Hard Coking Coal is around $500-$600 per tonne.
China – the worlds biggest user of Coking Coal is finding it harder and harder to mine domestic Coking Coal stocks. The depth and threat to human life makes it uneconomical.
Currently China is importing Coking Coal from the US and Canada – lots of carbon used in that transport – (Australia currently banned).
They were also importing from Russia but banks are not guaranteeing Letters of Credit from Russia.
Mongolia supplies some Hard Coking Coal but strict COVID controls at the Chinese border have made the trade difficult.
No new Coke mines will see Australian Coke stocks depleted quite quickly due to our easy access of the Korean and Japanese steel markets where Australian Coking Coal is preferred due to its quality and shipping costs.
Kitching hardly gets a mention now.Ship sailed as usual.
GoldenSmaug at 2.04pm
Expecting a politician to walk 3.1 metres or more without (financial) assistance? Gee, I dunno…
when is a fresh face not fresh?
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-04-13/david-speirs-to-run-for-south-australian-liberal-leadership/100987486
Poroti……So true and to think those poor sods in Ukraine/Shanghai or wherever could not get a “wholesome” meal….
I just don’t know how these self-inflated idiots such as Caines are able to look at themselves in the mirror and keep a straight face…….
Has anyone ever noticed when Morison is at a press conference and is asked an unfavourable question he does this thing where he raises he eyebrows and moves his eyes around rapidly in a manner that conveys to the questioner that you are an idiot for asking that?
The latest ABS unemployment number will be released at 11am tomorrow.
It will almost certainly have a 3 in front of it.
That alone will reignite debate about Albo’s brain fade, and his blunder today in walking out of a presser for his travelling media after just six minutes.
But more importantly it will provide opportunity for Morrison to keep the whole week focussed on economic management – on his terms.
The liberals could not have planned week one better themselves.
And just on this claim in the AFR that ‘casual work is declining in percentage terms’, and hence is not a problem, we’ll tell that to the casual security guards on $25 an hour checking people entering the terminal in Sydney…
This is the lived experience which ScoMo is trying and failing to cover up,by wining and dining the media scrum..
https://www.crikey.com.au/2022/04/13/sydney-airport-insecure-work/
GoldenSmaug @ #508 Wednesday, April 13th, 2022 – 2:04 pm
There should be a huge social media campaign through Qld to highlight this Hanson/Christensen rort.
The way the corrupt media hacks are carrying on , for some unknown reason they seem to fear that the rusted on lib/nats supporters are about to be swaying to Labor
“But I suppose to rich inner city Greenies the price don’t matter.”
***
I am one of the approx half a million Greens voters who lives in the country. This is just another of the many absurd myths that the right like to propagate that has no basis in reality whatsoever.
Since you are overseas at the moment, you may have missed that parts of Australia have been devastated in recent weeks by unprecedented flooding, including the Northern Rivers area of NSW where I live. This follows truly devastating bushfires at the end of 2019 that ripped though ancient rain-forests and claimed many lives. The climate emergency is here and we need to act now.
@Al Pal… darling. There are more than enough pearls lost around here.
Al Pal
You are ignoring ScoMo’s inate ability to do stupid things – why would he change now?
Victoria @ #493 Wednesday, April 13th, 2022 – 1:50 pm
Triggered by a Pride flag? She must climb under the bed every time she sees a rainbow.
Just past petrol station and it’s down to $1:55 here
‘Voice Endeavour says:
Wednesday, April 13, 2022 at 1:51 pm
Sorry BW, what question did he dodge?’
—————————–
Why did the pygmy slimeball abuse Labor in his answer? Totally uncalled for. And don’t cherry pick your fave bits this time, please.
Verging on the stupid…
Scott Morrison has arrived at Viva Energy’s Oil Refinery in Victoria, as he rehashes a $125m investment in the facility. It is near the marginal Victorian seat of Corangamite, held by Labor MP Libby Coker on a margin of 1 per cent. #auspol @australian
— Greg Brown (@gregbrown_TheOz) April 13, 2022
How much steel is used for solar panels?
It is all aluminium which does not use coal to make.
I’m sure Bluey will enlighten us on the campaign ‘scorecard’ later, but my biased 2c worth is that today is an acceptable ‘reset’ for Labor, given the context…
1) We are on day 3, few will remember much of what happens, so bringing forward a small-ish ($135m) health announcement is the right order of magnitude
2) No stuff-ups (so far)!
3) Health is good territory for an announcement
4) As others have noted, Albo has distanced himself and Labor from Scomo’s gate crashing questioner, which may make some curious to find out what the guy was gate crashing etc
5) The media are unlikely to come out of the last 24 hours with improved ‘public trust’ levels…and, given that survey puts them down around Used Car Salespeople, they don’t have much cred to lose!
Rather than focus on the 2PP I’ll be looking at the primaries as the allocation of preferences by pollsters is not an exact science particularly if it’s based on the 2019 election preference distribution where the UAP and ON preferences favoured the Coalition by some 70%. I don’t think the flow will be that strong this time.
If we examine the last Newspoll [10 April], the major parties are polling 73% [Coalition 36, Labor 37%], leaving 27% to be distributed on assumptions determined by the pollsters. 27%!!
Last night’s Morgan poll had the Coalition PV at 32.5% [ridiculously low] and the Labor PV at 36% for a 2PP of 57/43. Again, a ridiculous figure. But it’s 27% again for pollsters to allocate preferences based on less than reliable assumptions.
Since the beginning of the year, Labor’s PV in Newspoll has trended downward, from 41 to 36. A primary vote of 41% for Labor was never realistic when there are so many other parties vying for votes. The UAP and ON poll figures are of the order of 6 to 7%,while the “Others” and Greens are each averaging about 10%. So 7+10+10=27. There’s a constancy about these non-major party figures in Newspoll, meaning the focus should be on the PV difference of the major parties for reliability.
Allowing pollsters to distribute some 6 to 7% for the UAP and ON based on 2019 outcomes [probably too generous to the Coalition] and doing the same for “Others” and Greens is fraught with misinterpretation.
At present, Labor’s PV is still greater than the Coalition’s, remembering the Coalition had a 8.1% advantage over Labor in 2019. To be really in the hunt for this election, the Coalition has to have a PV of 4 to 5% greater than Labor’s. It cannot win otherwise. I reckon the Coalition’s PV has to overtake Labor’s this coming week. If not, Albo’s gaffe would have meant nothing.
How much tax will the Greens raise per annum with their billionaire’s tax?
How much tax will the Greens raise per annum with their corporate tax?
Bandt has spent it all ten times over.
Ballantyne @ #526 Wednesday, April 13th, 2022 – 2:13 pm
She’s clearly a hardcore culture warrior and very anti-freedom.
Snappy Tom says:
Wednesday, April 13, 2022 at 2:14 pm
I’m sure Bluey will enlighten us on the campaign ‘scorecard’ later…’
—————————————
Yep.
JA
Now write one about Morrison’s trans fuck up…
Arky says:
Wednesday, April 13, 2022 at 1:57 pm
…under the hopefully now discredited “sunlight is the best disinfectant” theory of political communication. Albo has the benefit of neither factor.
—
Sunlight is the best disinfectant. But as Toby in West Wing put it best – “For germs, maybe. Not the plague.”
People who ascribe to the logic of giving extra coverage in order to show that something is bad have forgotten that this applies to revealing that which has been hidden from the light. It deals with corruption.
Boerwar @ #528 Wednesday, April 13th, 2022 – 2:14 pm
‘pygmy slimeball’ …?
wow !
Rexie
In not answering a question Bandt took the opportunity to insert a totally gratuitous and vicious swipe at Labor.
Political pygmy slimeball stuff.
Somehow the Greens devotees ‘missed’ that bit when they fawned all over their Dear Leader’s NPC ‘performance’.
Poor Cameron @ 2.08
Yes.
Serious question. When Brandt says profit he means accounting profit, so essentially pulling the net of tax timing differences out of taxable income, which is kinda funny because building timing differences into the tax system is one of the really successful strategies that outside MWM I’ve not seen criticised.
If you aren’t pulling out transfer pricing costs attributable to a TP benefit you might be able to game as between tax and accounting!
Tax always needs a few new twists and complexities I like this already and we still have BEPS Pillars 1 and 2 to implement!!!!!!
Get a grip Boerwar.
Snappy Tom:
Not gonna lie. The last couple of days have left me a little spooked. But I think your assessment is correct.
Until green hydrogen is industrialized on a huge scale, coaking coal is a thing. If you think otherwise you’re an idiot, and don’t deserve to get anywhere near a position of authority.
Remove coal from energy generation? Yes. Immediately. Renewables are already cheaper capacity to build than coal (and everything else). The faster it’s gone the better. Until such a time as it is gone, gas should replace it, and if that means increasing gas usage to decrease coal usage, so be it. After coal is gone, gas is next. After gas is gone, it will be cheaper to produce hydrogen from renewables than to dig up coal.
Getting rid of all fossil fuels right now is bottled unicorn farts.
How front of consciousness in voters’ minds are jobkeeper and submarine wastage of billions?
In ordinary times, that plus legacy recall of bushfires, floods and elements of covid handling… should be more than enough for a 5-6% average swing?
The negative ads triggering rage should write themselves, can and should be devastating if done well. Albo doesnt need to show his face… which i think is prob for the best anyways. Can only hope that this material is being produced and tested with some bucks behind it at the most impactful timing (early May?)
Adam Bandt is a good communicator. For example, his message about the urgent need for an economy of net zero carbon emissions accords equal weight to the need to provide a fair and secure transition for workers displaced from fossil fuel industries. He always says that the federal government can and should be generous to these workers so that they aren’t hurt by the shift to net zero carbon. Some policies that support a fair transition include:
Federally funded wage replacement until displaced workers find their feet.
Free education and training for all.
Full employment policies to make job-seeking much easier.
Federal government investments in infrastructure and services that could use the skills of displaced workers.
Rainbows? Doesn’t everybody hate rainbows?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3K7NBDweRzw
“How much tax will the Greens raise per annum with their billionaire’s tax?
How much tax will the Greens raise per annum with their corporate tax?
Bandt has spent it all ten times over.”
Yeah Bandt is definitely going to be PM control the treasury benches and do that. I don’t know why he even bothers.
Good to see Nicholas back commenting.
Not familiar with this saying
megan thee frog
@fuddlemark
There’s a saying: if you lend someone $200 and never see him again, it was worth it.
Maybe I’m just jaded, but if the only way to be free of this Nazi-adjacent fuckwit is to let him rort the loser’s allowance, well, it’s worth the money.
Lanai Scarr
@lanai_scarr
Important to note on George Christensen, because he’s contesting IF he loses he will get a taxpayer-funded payout of six-months of salary – equivalent to $105,000 . If he’d just quit he wouldn’t get this…
Zali Steggel will have no problems retaining Warringah, her liberal opponent sounds like a complete nutjob
@Asha – a little bit of ‘spooked’ isn’t bad. Generally, it’s a good test of a campaign how they come out of the wobbly period.
It takes a day or two to course correct and there might be some initial impact, but if they learn the lesson of this, and it seems they have – it could lead to a better campaign overall.
Always better to have a slip up early. You’d ideally not have any slip ups – but again, there was one and how you respond to it is critical.
John Anderson at 2.15pm
I think you offer good analysis.
I guess the 53/47 Newspoll headline put the cat among the pigeons here.
The Coalition have a lot of ground (still) to make up to avoid losing.
A side note – the last Newspoll before the 2019 vote had Labor ahead 51.5/48.5, with the Coalition leading by 1 on primary vote. In early April, at the beginning of the campaign, Newspoll had Labor ahead 52/48 with the Coalition ahead by 1 on primary. Newspoll hardly changed throughout the campaign – it was just wrong, even on primaries.
Yet, it has been remarkably accurate at State elections since (presumably since revising its methods.)
Of course, the biased media do there best to maintain Albo’s lost it…
Expat Follower @ #546 Wednesday, April 13th, 2022 – 2:24 pm
The ads need to be on high rotation now to get it into voters heads.