Federal election minus 37 days

Miscellaneous federal election news, including focus group findings from the Financial Review and sundry developments at local level.

Market research:

• My first of what will be regular contributions to Crikey each Wednesday through the campaign makes the case for taking opinion polling seriously again, though you may think that I would say that.

• Today’s Financial Review reports focus groups of undecided voters in Sydney and Melbourne found Scott Morrison to be “smirking, unkempt, immature and dishonest”, to which women added “annoying and patronising”. However, he was also considered a hard worker and “good orator”, and marked up for his response to the Ukraine war. Anthony Albanese was “dull, uninspiring and too negative”, and his failure to have made a clear impression meant Labor had failed to fully shake off perceptions it planned to abolish franking credits and introduce a death tax. The focus groups were conducted for the paper by Ipsos on Tuesday – there is no indication that Albanese’s stumbles over unemployment and the cash rate the previous day were raised.

Miranda Ward of the Financial Review reports Nielsen Ad Intel data shows the United Australia Party has spent $3.49 million in media advertising this month, compared with $472,247 by Labor, $103,265 by Liberal and $42,991 by the Greens.

Candidate news:

• George Christensen’s plan to run for One Nation proved to be a damp squib for everyone but his accountant, the big idea being to run for the inconsequential third position on the party’s Senate ticket. This will entitle him to six months’ worth of their salary, or over $100,000, as part of a “resettlement allowance” paid to defeated but not retiring incumbents. According to Andrew Tillett of the Financial Review, Christensen’s claim that he would have been entitled to it anyway on the grounds that he was effectively knocked back for Liberal National Party preselection does not square with the rules set out by the Remuneration Tribunal.

• Fairfield deputy mayor Dai Le will run as an independent in Fowler, seeking to capitalise on discontent over Labor’s preselection of Kristina Keneally over a member of the seat’s substantial Vietnamese community. Le came within 2.1% of gaining the state seat of Cabramatta for the Liberals in the party’s 2011 landslide and polled 25.9% as an independent there in 2019. Her campaign is backed by Fairfield mayor Frank Carbone, who had earlier floated the possibility of running himself.

On the ground:

David Crowe of the Age/Herald reports Scott Morrison will be in northern Tasmania today dispensing $219.5 million from a forestry industry fund, with a view to shoring up the Liberal-held marginals of Bass and Braddon and perhaps snaring Labor-held Lyons.

• Barnaby Joyce was in the Northern Territory on Tuesday to target its two Labor-held seats, promoting the budget’s $1.5 billion of spending on new port facilities in Darwin and promising to spend $440 million on logistics hubs elsewhere in the territory, respectively of interest to Solomon and Lingiari. According to David Crowe of the Age/Herald, this points to Coalition hopes it can “gain ground in the regions despite poor polling in the cities”.

• Katherine Deves, who is running for the Liberals against independent Zali Steggall in Warringah, was found to have deleted social media posts relating to trans rights issues, one of which referred to “vulnerable children surgically mutilated and sterilised in furtherance of an unattainable ideal”. This was evidently thought to have exceeded her brief as a campaigner for strict definitions of biological sex in women’s sport, but even here Scott Morrison now appears less keen than he did when he rated it a point in her favour after rubber-stamping her preselection last week.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,751 comments on “Federal election minus 37 days”

Comments Page 34 of 36
1 33 34 35 36
  1. Boerwar: Ouch. That hurt so much. Someone give me some Endone fast!

    I don’t know whether Morrison is actually a worse PM than Abbott. The latter had more competence, just like Stalin had more competence than Trump. But that also made him “worse” in terms of making the nation a more hostile society.

  2. Pi

    I was hoping to go there a few years ago (just before the pandemic hit!) – of course the coastline has moved a long way in 2500 years so the 300 would not be able to block that pass now! There isn’t much there but there is that plaque at Colonus Hill which is where I think they made their last stand.

    I read a piece by an American woman who took her elderly father, a classics professor, there. She got there and thought it didn’t look like much – but she said he was incredibly moved to be there and read that plaque and realise he was finally at a place he had known of for his whole teaching life.

    A_E – sounds interesting. Also studied Alexander (in my spare time in those days!) and that whole journey/campaign is extraordinary.

    Another favourite was Anabasis by Xenophon (the original one!) – at an airport one day (pre Covid) I saw an historical novel ‘Falcon of Sparta’ based on the March of the Ten Thousand and mean to read that some time.

  3. “ Abbott was our worst PM, prior to 2018”

    Hmmn. There was this chap, cant quite recall his name, who reigned between Sept 2015 and August 2018 … yep. HIM. What’s his name. Worst PM ever.

  4. I assume you meant that to be funny, but that particular blood slander has led to extremely unfunny results over the last two millennia.

    I hope you reconsider.

    I’m not the slightest bit prejudiced, or religious. I don’t even believe Jesus was a real person. Most of the references to his life and works were written long after he is supposed to have walked the Earth.

    Likewise for Pontius Pilate. Yes, PP was the (5th?) Governor of Judea, but whether what we read in the gospels about his association with Jesus, his death and with local Judean politics is correct, who knows?

    In my personal view… “Who cares?”

    Now, go over to Morrison’s claimed religious beliefs and you’ll find someone who at least claims to care about Jesus and his history. Morrison’s with the Shire’s Horizon church now, but he got his happy clapping start in the Jesus business when he used to live in the Hills District (prior to the Shire) and got involved with known pedophile Frank Houston’s and his son Brian’s Hillsong, with its megachurch pretensions located in Baulkham Hills’ Norwest Business Park, across the nature strip from the Coles supermarket.

    Hillsong has a big connection with Israel. They set up there first providing tours of the Holy Land in 2017. In common with most other Pentecostal churches, to be blunt and brief, Hillsong sees the Jews as unclean stepping stones to the Rapture. The Jews must (according to prophecy) re-establish Israel to it’s old Testament boundaries, Armageddon can then take place, and true Christians will then ascend to Heaven, with the Jews going to hell as Christ’s murderers, surplus to requirements.

    Both sides – broadly defined as “Pentecostals” and “Israelis” – understand this. And both sides are in it to make a tidy profit out of the other side’s beliefs, before the End Times ruin it all. Pentecostals invest in West Bank land-grabs, “reconstruction” and provide political influence in Washington, while Tel Aviv businessmen and politicians count the money and power. It’s a cynical, but mutually profitable business. Each is, at least in their own minds, helping to bring about the downfall of the other, and make a few $$$ in the process.

    So, to address your criticism, for Scott Morrison being a fully paid-up and proud little Pentecostal God botherer, to have two-Bob each way visiting BOTH a Christian AND a Jewish assembly, on this of all days – the day the Pentecostals reckon the Jews did the dirty on Jesus Christ – is, to put it mildly, a bit rich.

    This has nothing to do with my beliefs or prejudices, but with Morrison’s alone.

    And if you don’t believe me Google it, mate. Try “eschatology” first, and take it from there.

  5. Pi

    When I was researching going to Thermopylae I found out about the hot springs for which it is named. I think the hot spring water is fairly Sulfur rich and stains all the rocks yellow (and maybe those who lie there soaking in them!)

    When I read ‘Dune’ years ago around the same time I was studying Ancient Greece I did wonder if Frank Herbert had based the Sardaukar warriors on the Spartans.

  6. BB. You are drawing a strawman out of 2 strawmen.

    There have been Catholic Labor leaders who associated with Protestants for example.

    Just because some extreme Catholics believe that Protestants won’t go to heaven means nothing to them.

  7. Rocket, not a bad assumption about the Spartans re:Herbert and the Sardaukar. Or the Fremen tbh.

    A_E, just ordered my hard-cover copy of the Afghan Campaign.

  8. I must say I’ve always had a bit of sympathy for Pontius Pilate. Governor of fucking Judea. Who’d want that job, then or now or anytime in between?

  9. This is Russia today.

    The mined body of 27-year-old Vadym Postolyuk was found in the village of Poliske.
    He was abducted on his way to the evacuation collection point, tortured and then executed. Vadim’s body could not be taken away for three days – three mines were next to his body and one under it.

    https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPR/status/1514914680816300034?s=20&t=fN6X1ua6cVsCzNmpgr1bEA

    Of course Putin could not have better mates than the odious Reichskanzler Herr Scholz, the fraternal Ponce Macron, and Orban the Hun.

  10. BSA Bob, the funny thing is they know about as much about Pilate as they did about JC. If he hadn’t had is mug stamped on a few coins, no-one would have probably cared who he was. Before he became governor, no-one knows anything about him, and after he got sent back to Rome, no-one ever heard of him again.

    This again highlights the simple lack of records of this time. When the actual governor is essentially invisible in history, the chances of knowing the goings on of a bunch of semi-illiterate goat-herders is even less possible.

  11. Tom @ #1613 Friday, April 15th, 2022 – 7:39 pm

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/apr/14/what-is-the-historical-evidence-that-jesus-christ-lived-and-died

    That article contains no historical evidence at all, just a sequence of didactic, false statements.

    The only historical ‘fact’ he quotes is that a Jewish/Roman historian named Flavius Josephus (who was born well after the JC persons supposed date of execution, and who managed to write in 3 Greek dialects), made a two word reference to a ‘so-called christ’ in AD93. Definitive! Unquestionable proof!

    No historian of any repute now maintains that the author of any of the ‘gospels’ is known. It has become apparent that there are probably only two source documents, and that the birth accounts in the so-called Luke and Matthew versions are provably wrong, in that they quote two different governors, neither of whom were in power at the time (one had been dead for some years), and neither of whom called a census of any type around the designated time. The two versions also utterly contradict each other with regard to virtually all of the main ‘facts’.

    The author of the piece referred to is a classic example of a ‘theologian’ we discussed a few days ago, who takes it upon himself to justify his existence by promulgating nonsense.

  12. One good point that BB has raised, albeit accidentally, is that we really don’t know what Morrison’s beliefs are because no journalist has managed to ask him very many questions about it. From what I have gathered from one interview he does not believe in Talking in Tongues, but does practice the Laying of Hands. As for the other typical or atypical Pentecostal beliefs he may hold we are in the dark.

  13. nath @ #1665 Friday, April 15th, 2022 – 9:17 pm

    One good point that BB has raised, albeit accidentally, is that we really don’t know what Morrison’s beliefs are because no journalist has managed to ask him very many questions about it. From what I have gathered from one interview he does not believe in Talking in Tongues, but does practice the Laying of Hands. As for the other typical or atypical Pentecostal beliefs he may hold we are in the dark.

    Didn’t he want to change the location of the Australian Embassy in Israel? Another Evangelical Christian wish list item.

  14. From my studies, I must say that any/all biblical scholars start with the presumption that the bible is correct and then set about trying to prove its details.

    As someone said above, there is not a single piece of primary evidence for the existence of the person the bible calls christ, nor any archaeological proof.

    The Romans were good record keepers and they don’t mention him either (only a few ppl around that time who called themselves holymen but none they thought signifiant).

    Some years ago I had an email exchange with an American author/pastor of some repute, and when I put that to him, his response was that that didn’t matter as the myth was powerful and had a ife of its own that transcended the truth of his existence. We agreed to respectfully disagree.

  15. The Romans, the authors, editors, keepers and self-certifying publishers of purportedly historical documents, were certainly pleased to exculpate themselves and incriminate Jewish theologians for the persecution and sacrifice of an alleged pretender and/or incarnation of a legendary Hebrew figure.

    Good job, being the sole custodian of records and translator of myths, tales, speeches, fables, polemics, hearsay and poetry. Like Rupert Murdoch would be if he could be.

  16. There’s a lovely Anatole France short story, The Procurator Of Judea about Pilate in retirement on the isle of Ischia.

    He meets up with an old associate from his time as governor, and they agree to meet that night for dinner.

    That evening, after eating, they get to talking about Jewish women back in the day. Beautiful. Sexy. Irresistible. They agree.

    The friend recalls one in particular, to whom he tried offering everything, in order to get closer to her, but she rebuffed him and finally disappeared one day.

    “So you never saw her again?” Pilate asked, just to show that he had been following the story.

    “No, never. But I got news about her later. She had attached herself to a small company of men and women who were followers of a young Galilean miracle-worker. His name was Jesus, he came from Nazareth. Do you remember the man? You had him crucified for some crime.”

    “Jesus of Nazareth,” Pilate repeated the name. “No,” he said, “It doesn’t ring a bell.”

    He yawned. “It’s getting late. Would you like to stay the night?”

  17. nath says:
    Friday, April 15, 2022 at 9:17 pm

    One good point that BB has raised, albeit accidentally, is that we really don’t know what Morrison’s beliefs are because no journalist has managed to ask him very many questions about it. From what I have gathered from one interview he does not believe in Talking in Tongues, but does practice the Laying of Hands. As for the other typical or atypical Pentecostal beliefs he may hold we are in the dark.

    Nath I reckon he talks in “tongues” all the time. The media are so entranced by his tongue that they belive his BS like there can’t be a Federal ICAC because it’s Labor’s fault.

    Me thinks he talk with “forked tongue”.

  18. Agree jt983

    Scotty does what is expedient for Scotty — if that means he wears his so-called faith on his sleeve, he’ll do just that. He is a product of imagery.

  19. a r

    What gives?
    ————-

    It’s hard to believe but after decades of practice the ALP does not yet seem to be ready to best a feral media.

  20. Just watched a summing up of the election week on ABC. Probyn and that blonde girl wasting no energy in pumping Albo and Labor. i don’t think they’re even trying to hide their bias now. it was sickening. Anybody else catch it?


  21. citizensays:
    Friday, April 15, 2022 at 8:13 pm
    The main story is that SfM went to a church in Gladys Liu’s electorate this morning and a synagogue in Frydenberg’s electorate this evening. Both these wonderful people are under immense electoral pressure. SfM could have chosen from many churches in Melbourne for Easter this morning and if he felt the urge, attend any synagogue for Passover this evening.

    No campaigning today? Sure…

    That is main story and not what many want us to believe happened 2000 years ago. What I don’t understand is why people on this site want to denigrate other people religious feelings. If they don’t want to be religious, that is their choice. Similarly some other people want to believe religious teachings and that is their choice.

  22. Liu was a cheat plain and simple with her dodgy campaign signs. Once a cheat always a cheat! Scrot has to pray at her church so that the Almighty might forgive her for this not-so-little sin.

    Unfortunately for the other side of politics (which is most of this forum), God and Jesus are generally Liberal / Conservative / GOP supporters.

  23. “ The Romans, the authors, editors, keepers and self-certifying publishers of purportedly historical documents, were certainly pleased to exculpate themselves and incriminate Jewish theologians for the persecution and sacrifice of an alleged pretender and/or incarnation of a legendary Hebrew figure.

    Good job, being the sole custodian of records and translator of myths, tales, speeches, fables, polemics, hearsay and poetry. Like Rupert Murdoch would be if he could be.”

    This is a truly weird post, briefly. “The Romans” would have given zero fucks about being fingered for the death of any legendary Hebrew figure. As far as the Romans were concerned the Hebrews – all of them, regardless of whatever schism or sect they adhered to – were enemies of the State because they singularly refused to acknowledge the Divinity of the Emperor of the day: treason. The Romans proudly, routinely and openly persecuted the Christians on that basis until towards the end of the third century CE. “The Romans” only became a tad embarrassed about the crucifixion of Our Lord once Constantine jumped the shark in the early fourth century. Blame shifting onto “the Jews” was a cottage industry of that century amongst the sect’s clerics, once they realised they had inherited the power behind the throne.

  24. @Rakali – how would one best them?

    It’s a total Catch-22 – the important thing is their influence continues to wane.

    The funny thing is – Albo got much better and more comfortable as the week moved on … but, as usual, the CPG doesn’t have the creativity and gets stuck with writing the piece they’ve been writing for the last three days.

    On the actual point @a r – given the fretting and frothing over the event and with the first fortnight of the campaign basically being an enormous sucking noise of nothingness… it’s hardly a surprise.

  25. “ Just watched a summing up of the election week on ABC. Probyn and that blonde girl wasting no energy in pumping Albo and Labor. i don’t think they’re even trying to hide their bias now. it was sickening. Anybody else catch it?”

    Astonishing isn’t it (not)? A momentary ‘memory blank’ vs a 9 year ‘government blank’. Who knew that trivia pursuit was so important.

  26. Seeing the disaster from profiteering private Airports Corp on the news. None of the reporting questions the obvious outcomes from privatising monopoly public assets.

    In Australia, Capital is far more strategic (and obviously vastly more wealthy) than is Labour.

    But in Northern European countries it’s not like that.

    So why does Australia increasingly privilege the more privileged?

  27. Nath, nothing I raise about Morrison is accidental.

    My personal opinion is that he is likely a phony, or at least so casual and loosely attached in his beliefs as to be easily tempted away from them and their tenets.

    I had forgotten his relocation of the embassy to Jerusalem. That is pure Pentecostal Playbook, Volume 1, Chapter 1, and is not inconsistent with my interpretation of his behaviour. The ancient borders of Israel must not only be restored, but be acknowledged by the world to have been restored.

    Whether Morrison believes any of this humbug, I highly doubt, but he will walk both sides of any street, straddle any highway or byway to get votes, buy favours or peddle influence. Benignly mixing Jews with Jesus on Good Friday, to a person like Morrison, is pas de problème.

  28. Ann Wilson probably had the greatest female voice in the history of popular music. As to her looks, well yes I was, as a 14 year old quite mesmerized by her. Note there was no skin on show in any of her performances. Ann Wilson was something of a tragic figure in the rock world, needing to starve herself to maintain those svelte looks. She was put under a lot of pressure form her band mates and record label to diet and lose weight. The band ran into contractual issues in the early 80’s and disappeared for about 15 or so years. However, Ann Wilson and the band have come back since then. She is still singing as well as ever.

  29. Andrew-Earlwood

    The Romans proudly, routinely and openly persecuted the Christians on that basis until towards the end of the third century CE.
    ————
    Yes, but they never persecuted the Jews on that basis.

  30. “ The later Romans…post conversion Romans…”

    The monotheist murderers and suppressors of knowledge. Them. A few good eggs like Julian and Hypatia kicked against the pricks before the darkness descended though.

  31. Try, try and try again……

    “Kei Komuro, the husband of Japanese former princess Mako Komuro, has failed the New York state bar examination for a second time, a source familiar with the matter revealed Friday.

    Having previously failed the state bar exam last July, he took the test again in February this year. Komuro is expected to take it again in July.”

    https://www.bangkokpost.com/world/2295478/husband-of-japanese-ex-princess-fails-new-york-bar-exam-for-second-time

  32. “ Yes, but they never persecuted the Jews on that basis.”

    Vespasian and Hadrian have entered this conversation.

  33. a r says:
    Friday, April 15, 2022 at 9:24 pm
    The summary provided by Google News seems pretty dire

    What gives….. this gives…..

    New York, NY (February 17, 2021) – News Corp announced today that it has agreed to an historic multi-year partnership with Google to provide trusted journalism from its news sites around the world in return for significant payments by Google.

    Among the News Corp publications joining Google News Showcase will be The Wall Street Journal, Barron’s, MarketWatch, and the New York Post; in the UK: The Times and The Sunday Times, and The Sun; and in Australia a range of news platforms, including The Australian, news.com.au, Sky News, and multiple metropolitan and local titles.

    It would appear that Murdoch drivesGoogle News…

  34. Andrew-Earlwood

    The monotheist murderers and suppressors of knowledge. Them. A few good eggs like Julian and Hypatia kicked against the pricks before the darkness descended though.
    ———-
    Haha…..

    You are reflecting a simplistic and prejudiced view of history. A la Gibbons.

    You do realise the western half of the Roman Empire was conquered by “non-Roman barbarians”. The other half seemed not to have so many “murderers and suppressors of knowledge”.

    Please explain?

  35. Speaking of religion, this moring I went to Mass at my local Church. It’s a Catholic Church but built in Thai architectual style. Mass is said in both Thai and English.

    This afternoon we went to the Buddhist Temple to celebrate Thai New Year (Songkran). Suffice to say I muttered a prayer at both locations for Albo and the team.

    There is a Synagoue just down the road and a Mosque not to far away – but enough for one day.

Comments Page 34 of 36
1 33 34 35 36

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *