Foghorn politics and sewer tactics

The Katherine Deves controversy continues to accentuate faultlines within the Liberal Party and without.

Note the post below from Adrian Beaumont on today’s momentous French presidential run-off election. Closer to home:

• As the Liberal Party divides on Warringah candidate Katherine Deves and her contentious pronouncements on transgenderism, Chip Le Grand of the Age/Herald observes a related debate as to “whether a Coalition government could be turfed out of its inner-city electorates in Sydney and Melbourne but take enough ground in the suburbs and regions to stay in power”. Whereas some rate this as “electoral madness”, an unidentified conservative is quoted as saying Kooyong is “just a seat” and “certainly not the jewel in the crown anymore”. Those of the latter view point to Boris Johnson’s success in the “red wall” of northern England and the epochal populist-driven realignments in the United States and France.

• David Crowe of the Age/Herald reports front-benchers on both sides have identified the following seats as “still in play”: “Reid, Gilmore and Parramatta in NSW; Corangamite, McEwen and Chisholm in Victoria; Swan, Pearce and Hasluck in WA; Longman, Leichhardt and Brisbane in Queensland; and the Tasmanian trio of Bass, Braddon and Lyons”. This includes five seats held by Labor along with ten by the Coalition. A Labor source says they would “prefer to be us than them at this stage”, not least because the teal independent insurgency had the Coalition “fighting on two fronts”, but that defeat remained possible.

• Further to the above, former Queensland Labor state secretary Cameron Milner writes in The Australian that the Liberals are pursuing Labor-held Lilley in Brisbane, Lingiari in the Northern Territory (where Scott Morrison campaigned yesterday) and Corangamite in western Victoria. Milner also describes Scott Morrison’s support for Katherine Deves as “brilliant foghorn politics”, deployed to “virtue-signal their values” to One Nation and Clive Palmer voters whose preferences will be up for grabs. Phillip Coorey of the Financial Review likewise offers that “in the suburbs, the regions and the religious communities, the government – and Labor – believes the Deves issue is going gangbusters in Scott Morrison’s favour, messy as it may be”.

• A Labor online attack against Gladys Liu, who holds the Melbourne seat of Chisholm for the Liberals on a margin of 0.5%, has been described as a “desperate, dishonest, racist attack ad” by Josh Frydenberg and a “sewer tactic” by Scott Morrison. While these claims are receiving sympathetic coverage from the news media, the contentions raised in the ad do not seem especially misleading.

• Ben Raue of The Tally Room has interactive colour-coded maps recording the extent to which seats have swung towards one major party or the other since 2004. It can be observed that Labor has strengthened in the growth areas of Melbourne but weakened in central Queensland and Sydney’s inner west and south.

• Following the publication of full candidate details on Friday, I have finished fleshing out my federal election guide with further photos, candidate details and full lists of candidates in ballot paper order.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

726 comments on “Foghorn politics and sewer tactics”

Comments Page 12 of 15
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  1. Taran Kahlon says:
    “@Oliver Sutton
    Your point was about how GetUp caused Peter Dutton getting a small swing. My point was that it wasn’t the case. If you look at this map, it shows that the Neighbouring electorates of Brisbane and Ryan actually had swing towards the LNP. Most of Dickson lives near the border of the Brisbane City Council, so my conclusion was that that was the reason the Dutton got a small swing compared to Longman and Petrie”

    Brisbane is not a ‘neighbouring’ division to Dickson.

    And Brisbane and Ryan are demographically very distinct from Dickson: the former inner and middle suburban; the latter outer suburban. Not at all comparable on voting patterns in an election where, as has been well documented, electorates with higher incomes and educational levels tended to swing to Labor, counter to the overall swing to the Coalition.

    In Ryan, I’ve already noted that the LNP probably lost a point or two due to loss of the personal vote of long-time incumbent Jane Prentice.

    Coincidentally, the swings to the LNP in Ryan and Dickson were the same: 2.95% in both divisions. Each *1.4 points less than the statewide swing* to the LNP.

    Why was that so? A myriad of reasons, down to the individual idiosyncrasies of the 100,000 voters in each division. But it’s arguable that one of the main contributors to the LNP’s underperformance in Ryan was the loss of Prentice’s personal vote.

    In Dickson, a different scenario: a continuing long-term (high profile) incumbent. So why did Dickson swing less that Queensland generally? Again, it’s arguable that GetUp did in fact make a small dent in Dutton’s vote.

  4. Cronus @ #523 Monday, April 25th, 2022 – 4:06 pm

    BH

    “ Some of my maternal and paternal Uncles didn’t march until after the Vietnam War. I loved watching the March as a kid and couldn’t understand my Uncles then. I did as an adult.”

    I get it, I haven’t marched in 20 years.

    My Father, ex British Army and RAF – hated the march. Didn’t help that he worked a few years as a barman in the local RSL which I think flavoured his opinion. Thought that most of it was just an excuse for a piss up. Said it wasn’t a way to respect the dead. And he wasn’t a wowser. He rarely spoke about his experiences – spent some time recovering tanks in the middle east so he would have seen some horrible things.

  5. Boerwar,
    Could you ask Bluey if he could be so kind as to award The Drew Pavlou Democratic Party .5 of a point for having the balls to take on Morrison’s Manchurian Candidate Gladys Liu and to keep campaigning for all that is right and good in Australia and not forgetting what is wrong in China? Thank you. 🙂

  6. poroti says:
    Monday, April 25, 2022 at 3:37 pm
    “From SMH. It looks like the portrait of a comedy duo with the customary gormless funny man a straight man. Abbott and Costello ?”

    I think more “dumb and dumber”

  12. Assantdj @ #543 Monday, April 25th, 2022 – 4:28 pm

    My Grandfather was at Tobruk, it was a topic that was never spoken about and he never marched. On his death my father found all his medals still in the presentation cases and never mounted or worn.
    My other grandfather didn’t go to war, he was a dairy farmer and took over the family farm so his brothers could go. One came back but died within a year, again never discussed but probably suicide, his other two brothers both died overseas. This side of the family never marched either and I was
    surprised to find their names on a memorial when I had what I thought at the time was the privilege of laying a wreath.
    I’m now married to an ex serviceman who as a returned soldier was denied entry to the RSL, and suffers from PTSD. He would never discuss the war, his service or his memories. Intense therapy for his mental health has however shed some light on how horrific the experience must have been. He has never marched although he got as far as getting his medals cleaned and mounted but has never managed to get to a service. Prior to his complete mental deterioration he would go and silently add a wreath at the local memorial after the crowds had left.
    In the opinion of my husband which is now shared by his whole family it would be better to honour our service people with better support services than the confected political and media posturing we now get every year.

    The inhumanity of war.

    Yes, more support, much more, is the least the next Govt can do.

  13. We weren’t an Anzac day family growing up, my grandfather was a pow in Burma, my dad didn’t need to mark a day on the calendar to remember his father coming back a physically and mentally broken man.
    When I was a boy Anzac was a time to quietly reflect on the evil of war and it’s victims.
    The hero worship and glorification of war that is attached to it now leaves me cold.

  16. Bluey forgot to remind his dear readers that any shifts in Newspoll numbers will be within the MOE.
    ============•••
    Brave bluey. Very brave.

  19. Many posts today remind us what many of us know personally. The impact of wars does not stop on the day the wars stop. The impact does not stop with the soldiers. The impact does not stop with the war generation.
    Many thanks to those posters who have shared this knowledge and experience today and yesterday.

  20. Australia has a muted class based voting system.. with a strong conservative tinge in country areas if it were other wise Labor would never lose.The wealthy areas of the capital cities tend to be close to the waterfront eg Brighton vic. These are the seats Labor will normally miss by 7 to 10% most times more so in a bad climate for a Labor The teals are competitive here because they can potentially shift 10 to 12% away from the liberals outpoll Labor and collect the left of centre mainly Labor and green preferences

  21. Lefty e, the con in conman does, after all, stand for confidence.

    Wouldn’t work without their media cheer squad and the useless other MSM. A proper journo would be incredulous instead of offering respect in the face such tricks.

  22. Freya Stark says:
    Monday, April 25, 2022 at 4:27 pm

    Sportsbet offered $26 for Labor winning ten or fewer seats in Queensland in 2019. Pity there was a limit of $20 on that market so I only made a profit of $500. Still, it was enough for an addition to my shoe collection.
    ========================
    Freya darling you are back and very busy today! I guess weekends are reserved for mixing with the “common folk” and pushing some Tory Propaganda.

    Now talking about Queensland you still haven’t told me when you are going to Bobawabba!!! If you must come in winter the Toad Races will be cancelled because as I said, they won’t hop in the cold. But Gumlu does have its “Funny Dunny” race day in August.

    It’s top day out and the XXXX is free flow. At night they bring out the plonk in those flash cardboard boxes. Upnorth we call them Goonie Bags.

    Freya you must give me a date so we can arrange to cut the grass next to the CWA Hall. The King Browns tend to hide there in winter.

  24. Sportsbet odds for Dickson:
    LNP 1.18
    ALP 4.50

    Much as Ali France is liked on this blog and on Twitter, I doubt she’s going to do much better in 2022 than she did in 2019.
    Brisbane, Longman, Leichhardt, Flynn more likely or possible Labor Qld gains.

  25. Looks like old boer is crab-walking his way to a hung parliament prediction from a narrow ALP majority prediction.

  26. The hero worship and glorification of war that is attached to it now leaves me cold.
    ——————————
    Yes. Add patriotism to that. It is the antithesis to my experiences as a child on Anzac Days.

  27. Corporate news shill Uhlmann showing his ‘credentials’…

    .@9NewsMelb has offered to host a debate between @JoshFrydenberg and Dr Monique Ryan @Mon4Kooyong at its studios in Melbourne’s Docklands at 3pm on Thursday. The Treasurer has agreed. Dr Ryan’s camp will not commit. The offer will remain open until Thursday. #auspol— Chris Uhlmann (@CUhlmann) April 25, 2022

    Since @JoshFrydenberg pulled out of the ACTUAL Kooyong candidates forum, I'd relish the opportunity to debate him on Ch9. If it's in Kooyong (not Docklands!), in front of people of Kooyong, with Qs asked by the people of #Kooyong.That's why I’m running — to represent Kooyong! https://t.co/EXK6e0fbaK— Dr Monique Ryan (@Mon4Kooyong) April 25, 2022

    Just heard back from Dr Monique Ryan's @Mon4Kooyong team. She has declined the invitation to debate the Treasurer @JoshFrydenberg on @9NewsMelb at 3pm on Thursday. The offer stands. Given the call for more transparency in public life, Dr Ryan should reconsider. #auspol— Chris Uhlmann (@CUhlmann) April 25, 2022

  28. SK at 5.02pm

    Care to compile a list of anyone in the lamestream* media who ISN’T working for a Morrison re-election?

    *This probably means their organisation has a significant print and/or broadcast presence.

  29. Rex Douglas:

    We are the great enabler of the higher emitters with our massive fossil fuel exports.

    And—fuck me—the Tyrannosaurus is yet another supposed left winger who believes in Say’s ‘Law’ and the trickle down effect.

  30. Simon Katich says:
    Monday, April 25, 2022 at 4:54 pm

    Covid in the Solomons isn’t going to stop China pursuing its interests there.
    =========================
    It’s a joke Joyce. Geez Louise.

    NSW Cricketers all the bloody same. That’s why Jeff Thompson and Matt Hayden were kept out of the National side for so long and don’t get me started about the wrongs inflicted on my mate Andrew Symonds by that stuck up pratt Michael Clarke.

  31. Rex Douglas @ #573 Monday, April 25th, 2022 – 5:08 pm

    Corporate news shill Uhlmann showing his ‘credentials’…

    .@9NewsMelb has offered to host a debate between @JoshFrydenberg and Dr Monique Ryan @Mon4Kooyong at its studios in Melbourne’s Docklands at 3pm on Thursday. The Treasurer has agreed. Dr Ryan’s camp will not commit. The offer will remain open until Thursday. #auspol— Chris Uhlmann (@CUhlmann) April 25, 2022

    Since @JoshFrydenberg pulled out of the ACTUAL Kooyong candidates forum, I'd relish the opportunity to debate him on Ch9. If it's in Kooyong (not Docklands!), in front of people of Kooyong, with Qs asked by the people of #Kooyong.That's why I’m running — to represent Kooyong! https://t.co/EXK6e0fbaK— Dr Monique Ryan (@Mon4Kooyong) April 25, 2022

    Just heard back from Dr Monique Ryan's @Mon4Kooyong team. She has declined the invitation to debate the Treasurer @JoshFrydenberg on @9NewsMelb at 3pm on Thursday. The offer stands. Given the call for more transparency in public life, Dr Ryan should reconsider. #auspol— Chris Uhlmann (@CUhlmann) April 25, 2022

    Oh, and the final tweet by Uhlmann was retweeted by none other than …Josh Frydenberg.

  32. ‘Lars Von Trier says:
    Monday, April 25, 2022 at 5:07 pm

    Looks like old boer is crab-walking his way to a hung parliament prediction from a narrow ALP majority prediction.’
    ——————————–
    I asked Bluey about this. He wanted me to name names. So I did. ‘L’arse’ I told him. Bluey laughed fit to bust. He reckons Pig’s Arse. Bluey is sticking to his prophesy that Labor will win with a small majority.

  35. Evan Parsons says:
    Monday, April 25, 2022 at 5:05 pm

    Sportsbet odds for Dickson:
    LNP 1.18
    ALP 4.50

    Much as Ali France is liked on this blog and on Twitter, I doubt she’s going to do much better in 2022 than she did in 2019.
    Brisbane, Longman, Leichhardt, Flynn more likely or possible Labor Qld gains.
    ==============================
    They should have run Linda Lavarch in Dickson. Former State MP in the area and Attorney General in the Beattie Government. Ex, Michael Lavarch was also the first MP for Dickson.

    Left did the numbers on her though.

  36. It’s a joke Joyce. Geez Louise.
    ———————
    I have covid. I am in no mood for jokes unless they come from me.

    And…. don’t call me Louise. Or shirley.

  39. The next time Gay Alcorn wants to pretend there’s no real reason to believe Nine Fairfax is a right wing organisation, can someone play her a lowlight reel of Chris Uhlmann?

    (Ryan would face a big disadvantage in preparing for a debate with Josh who may suck but has been in politics for ages, seen all the tricks, and is the Federal Treasurer with all the numbers and examples he wants made available to him, I’d use the excuse to dodge a debate too if I was her. Could break her campaign if they sucker her into a gotcha moment. But the demand she actively step into the spider’s lair is still blatantly partisan from Uhlmann).

  42. Simon K,
    I can’t stand Australia Day and Anzac Day.
    Not for what they should be but because of what they’ve become.
    It started with Howard and what I call their Americanisation.
    Clowns wrapping themselves in Australian flags, showing off their new tattoos, swaggering as they get as pissed as farts playing two up with no idea whatsover of the importance of these days

  45. Yes all of those seats may have voted for marriage equality but tolerance and acceptance for trans persons is tougher for the average “Scott Cam blokosexual” than tolerance and acceptance of the merely non-straight.

    Plus Katherine Deves, even I must admit, is to put it mildly, a woman of somewhat handsome appearances.

    They could not have staged it in a more ingenuous manner.

  46. Reckon the ABC will have her back pronto if SfM wins……

    “The ABC confirmed on Monday that Ibrahim has taken a break from presenting while her social media activity is under review.
    “The ABC is reviewing recent social media activity by presenter Fauziah Ibrahim, who has taken a break from on-camera duties but remains part of the Weekend Breakfast team,” a spokeswoman for the broadcaster said in a statement.”

  47. C@tmomma says:
    Monday, April 25, 2022 at 5:23 pm
    Simon Katich @ #580 Monday, April 25th, 2022 – 5:18 pm

    It’s a joke Joyce. Geez Louise.
    ———————
    I have covid. I am in no mood for jokes unless they come from me.

    And…. don’t call me Louise. Or shirley.
    Not happy, Jan?
    ===========
    Your naughty Muriel

  48. In the SANFL the Anzac Day game is contested by the Grand Final sides from the previous season

    Unlike the AFL – noting where Collingwood and Essendon sit on the Premiership Table

    The AFL should follow the SANFL

  50. Such is my experience of the ups and downs of the last few weeks/days of elections campaigns in a two horse race, that even if Labor goes in at 52-48 on the last day of the campaign, it will not be until Green calls it on election night as to whether there will be some light on the horizon or our country goes further down the gurgler….
    The loss of 1969 was a huge disappointment – though 1972 more than made up for it…..The loss by Kim Beazley after getting the best of the 2PP against Howard but still not the seats was another disappointment…
    But then, Hawke bringing a tear to Malcolm’s eye on defeat, and I guess, best of all was Howard losing both the government and his seat in one fell swoop, to make up for these disappointments.
    However, as they say, the night is not over until the Fat Lady or Man stars to sing……
    Over the years, the problem for Labor has been not so much being able to win elections but to keep office….The Rudd-Gillard years should never have happened……..for whatever reason……

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