Note the post below from Adrian Beaumont on today’s momentous French presidential run-off election. Closer to home:
• As the Liberal Party divides on Warringah candidate Katherine Deves and her contentious pronouncements on transgenderism, Chip Le Grand of the Age/Herald observes a related debate as to “whether a Coalition government could be turfed out of its inner-city electorates in Sydney and Melbourne but take enough ground in the suburbs and regions to stay in power”. Whereas some rate this as “electoral madness”, an unidentified conservative is quoted as saying Kooyong is “just a seat” and “certainly not the jewel in the crown anymore”. Those of the latter view point to Boris Johnson’s success in the “red wall” of northern England and the epochal populist-driven realignments in the United States and France.
• David Crowe of the Age/Herald reports front-benchers on both sides have identified the following seats as “still in play”: “Reid, Gilmore and Parramatta in NSW; Corangamite, McEwen and Chisholm in Victoria; Swan, Pearce and Hasluck in WA; Longman, Leichhardt and Brisbane in Queensland; and the Tasmanian trio of Bass, Braddon and Lyons”. This includes five seats held by Labor along with ten by the Coalition. A Labor source says they would “prefer to be us than them at this stage”, not least because the teal independent insurgency had the Coalition “fighting on two fronts”, but that defeat remained possible.
• Further to the above, former Queensland Labor state secretary Cameron Milner writes in The Australian that the Liberals are pursuing Labor-held Lilley in Brisbane, Lingiari in the Northern Territory (where Scott Morrison campaigned yesterday) and Corangamite in western Victoria. Milner also describes Scott Morrison’s support for Katherine Deves as “brilliant foghorn politics”, deployed to “virtue-signal their values” to One Nation and Clive Palmer voters whose preferences will be up for grabs. Phillip Coorey of the Financial Review likewise offers that “in the suburbs, the regions and the religious communities, the government – and Labor – believes the Deves issue is going gangbusters in Scott Morrison’s favour, messy as it may be”.
• A Labor online attack against Gladys Liu, who holds the Melbourne seat of Chisholm for the Liberals on a margin of 0.5%, has been described as a “desperate, dishonest, racist attack ad” by Josh Frydenberg and a “sewer tactic” by Scott Morrison. While these claims are receiving sympathetic coverage from the news media, the contentions raised in the ad do not seem especially misleading.
• Ben Raue of The Tally Room has interactive colour-coded maps recording the extent to which seats have swung towards one major party or the other since 2004. It can be observed that Labor has strengthened in the growth areas of Melbourne but weakened in central Queensland and Sydney’s inner west and south.
• Following the publication of full candidate details on Friday, I have finished fleshing out my federal election guide with further photos, candidate details and full lists of candidates in ballot paper order.
But I will answer to Jan. just for this week
Dr Ryan is an admitted former member of the ALP isn’t she? From 2007-2010 I believe?
Upnorth @ #589 Monday, April 25th, 2022 – 5:23 pm
Having 2 bob each way on Fauziah…and the result of the election.
Of all the things of this Deves overblown overreported nothingburger of a story, the insistence of certain PBers that she’s some sort of supermodel sex goddess is possibly the strangest.
There’s exceedingly little evidence in our Parliament or any other that people set out to elect attractive people anyway, but seriously what is it about Deves that has people as diverse as C@T and Freya hot under the collar? Did I miss the swimsuit edition?
Chris Uhlmann (@CUhlmann)
Chris should just put his Liberal Party blazer on & be done with it…
Not sure if this has been linked for those interested.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/let-evidence-not-fear-drive-policies-on-trans-athletes-20220423-p5afm1.html
Simon Katich says:
Monday, April 25, 2022 at 5:27 pm
But I will answer to Jan. just for this week
=======
Jan, Andrew Symonds is a passionate fisherman these days. Loves crabbing too. I believe the bust up with Clarke was because Symonds was making for coin at the IPL than Clarke.
https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/04/25/foghorn-politics-and-sewer-tactics/comment-page-12/#comment-3877173
There should be a mandatory and binding referendum before ADF adventures more than 1000 kms from Australia’s EZ or territorial waters, after a double majority in parliament, national security cabinet vote …, collective defence didn’t seem to apply to eyeRaq beyond Afghanistan in the GWOT, stops wagging the dog a la the Malvinas/ Falklands
Oh Bluey, even though Albo is kind of hors de combat at the moment he actually “Won the Day” again in the Hermit Kingdom’s miserable one paper……
The West, already have written Albanese off as “not fit for purpose” somehow conjured up a point for him yesterday taking it to 8-4-2….
I guess for Albanese to win a point show what shit day Morrison must have had…….
Wasn’t Uhlmann’s missus a former Labor MP? Seems unusual he would be a Liberal partisan in his role?
C@tmomma says:
Monday, April 25, 2022 at 5:29 pm
Upnorth @ #589 Monday, April 25th, 2022 – 5:23 pm
Reckon the ABC will have her back pronto if SfM wins……
“The ABC confirmed on Monday that Ibrahim has taken a break from presenting while her social media activity is under review.
“The ABC is reviewing recent social media activity by presenter Fauziah Ibrahim, who has taken a break from on-camera duties but remains part of the Weekend Breakfast team,” a spokeswoman for the broadcaster said in a statement.”
Having 2 bob each way on Fauziah…and the result of the election.
===========•=•==+++****=====
2 Up C@t after all it is ANZAC Day.
And while there is a bit of calm and reason here at the moment, and though being Anzac Day, the election here in Quakka land is hardly raising a ripple – yet……
All this stuff about transgender and the Morrison’s so-called Captains Pick to scare the Western suburbs of Sydney might as well be taking place on the moon for a much impact it has here…..
Now, if the cost of living goes up by say 3% – or is reported to have done so – in the next few days and the RB has the courage to defy politics and jack interest rates up before the election, we will then see how much cred Morrison and friends will be seen to have running the economy……..
I note that Woolies and Coles reported food costs up by 3% in the March quarter……..
Here we go again And what a game the Grand Final rematch was, only this time with the right result. 🙂
Upnorth says:
Monday, April 25, 2022 at 5:36 pm
C@tmomma says:
Monday, April 25, 2022 at 5:29 pm
Upnorth @ #589 Monday, April 25th, 2022 – 5:23 pm
Reckon the ABC will have her back pronto if SfM wins……
“The ABC confirmed on Monday that Ibrahim has taken a break from presenting while her social media activity is under review.
“The ABC is reviewing recent social media activity by presenter Fauziah Ibrahim, who has taken a break from on-camera duties but remains part of the Weekend Breakfast team,” a spokeswoman for the broadcaster said in a statement.”
Having 2 bob each way on Fauziah…and the result of the election.
===========•=•==+++****=====
2 Up C@t after all it is ANZAC Day.
______________________
No doubt the application will be successful for SkyNoos after Dark in the chance of a Labor victory
‘Tricot says:
Monday, April 25, 2022 at 5:31 pm
Oh Bluey, even though Albo is kind of hors de combat at the moment he actually “Won the Day” again in the Hermit Kingdom’s miserable one paper……
The West, already have written Albanese off as “not fit for purpose” somehow conjured up a point for him yesterday taking it to 8-4-2….
I guess for Albanese to win a point show what shit day Morrison must have had…….’
——————————-
I asked Bluey about this. He said HE knows that Morrison had a crap day. He says YOU know that Morrison had a crap day. The problem is that the Murdoch, Stokes, Costello and Buttrose quadrella had a good day. Therefore, zero all.
@ Dr Fumbles Mcstupid says:
Skynoos will already be doing the contract, win, lose or draw
It was interesting that Symonds claimed…..
“I’ve got enough respect for him to probably not go into detail”
….After showing Clarke no respect and going into detail.
I find it rather sad (pathetic really) he is coming out and saying this stuff – especially when we all know a snippet of his own failings.
I actually don’t have any feelings either way for Clarke. Other than he was a mighty fine cricketer. Symonds was also an excellent test and ODI player for Australia. Both very handy in the field, bowling and batting.
I smell a QLD rat here and he isn’t doing his mate Symonds any favours by stoking this crap.
FWIW; I am not Simon Katich, I don’t know Simon Katich and these posts should in no way be attributed to him.
‘Upnorth says:
Monday, April 25, 2022 at 5:23 pm
Reckon the ABC will have her back pronto if SfM wins……
“The ABC confirmed on Monday that Ibrahim has taken a break from presenting while her social media activity is under review.
“The ABC is reviewing recent social media activity by presenter Fauziah Ibrahim, who has taken a break from on-camera duties but remains part of the Weekend Breakfast team,” a spokeswoman for the broadcaster said in a statement.”’
—————————————
In the context this makes is sound like the break is voluntary. If she was forced to stand aside they should say so.
Seems unusual he would be a Liberal partisan in his role?
————————-
Uhlmann is certainly unusual.
Upnorth @ #572 Monday, April 25th, 2022 – 5:05 pm
Don’t mow the bloody grass!
Alright. Jan is out. Wake me when Newspoll releases it’s 53-47 give or take rounding (not moe).
He means the bottles, not the snakes!
Lars Von Trier @ #610 Monday, April 25th, 2022 – 5:31 pm
Uhlmann unsuccessfully contested the ACT 1998 general election for the electorate of Molonglo with the Osborne Independent Group. The far right conservative group was named after Paul Osborne, who was strongly pro-life and advocated blocking both euthanasia legislation and any attempt to decriminalise abortion.
Asha:
“Brisbane and Ryan both swung to Labor in 2019”
Oops, my bad. I saw the ‘+2.95’ on the top row of the AEC’s Tally Room page for Ryan and read it as a swing to the LNP: but yes, it was a swing to Labor, contra to the general trend across Queensland.
Why a 7-point differential between the swing in Ryan and statewide for Queensland? As previously noted, the loss of Jane Prentice’s personal vote (and displeasure at how Julian Simmonds usurped her as LNP candidate) would be a factor. Plus the national pattern of higher-income / better educated divisions (such as Ryan) swinging to Labor, contra to the country generally, would be another.
Matt31 says:
Monday, April 25, 2022 at 5:40 pm
“Here we go again And what a game the Grand Final rematch was, only this time with the right result”
Certainly a better game.
@ Jan
FWIW; I am not Simon Katich, I don’t know Simon Katich and these posts should in no way be attributed to him.
=======•==••======
It’s bloody easy to wind up Cockroaches and Mexicans.
We maligned Crow Eaters, Sand Gropers and Banana Benders are used to copping it so it’s water off a ducks back.
But Cockroaches and Mexicans take the bait every time just like a Hungry Barramundi on a fat live poddy Mullet.
Seriously though get better SK.
Jan/SK, Hope you feel better soon. I’m just over a week into my Covid journey, and for me it has been a medium to bad cold, starting to get back to normal now(still coughing a bit) Kids were normal after 2 or 3 days.
Arky
She’s classic Fox News Blonde™, which, if history is any guide, almost guarantees she’ll be coming out in a year or two with credible accusations of sexual harassment against a generic Fox News Alpha Male™ behind the scenes.
SK
Best wishes with the Covid.
Upnorth @ Monday, April 25, 2022 at 5:23 pm
No business is happy when the sales assistant is so obvious about having placed a thumb on the scale 😉
Catching up on a few pages of posts, but thought i should comment on this one from C@t.
“Look, I’m no doctor, but apropos this Trans athletes fracas, I was thinking that, if they have made the Transition, wouldn’t they become like the Eunechs of old? Would they not, once they have had their testosterone producing items removed, not be as muscular with an overweening advantage over the women they would be playing with and against?”
C@t, a lot of the “controversy” on Trans issues is primarily related to people who biologically male, declare themselves Trans female, but who chose NOT to go through sex change surgery. Most states now these people can legally declare themselves female, get their birth certificates changed (and in some cases i believe they can change it back if they want to after 12 months ??) and so consider they can then access spaces, services and activities that have always been female only.
Note, i use male and female, not men and women. I think people try and play on the language in this area. In my experience, rabid trans activist extremists are usually biological males that have, for whatever reasons that seem good to them have declared they are female.
Yup, there is a lot of push-back from feminists. Personally, i have had to deal with this stuff in my own family. Persons who i know are not in any way trans-phobic, have been viciously attacked online for simply registering that they dont fully support every aspect of the current trans activist dogma. Some of these trans activists go way over the top if confronted with ANYTHING that may in ANY way challenge their worldview.
Has that awful Deve’s woman (she is a Scomo pick after all) had death or sexual assault threats?? Quite likely. Some of the online harassment i have seen directed to people close to me over this is truly vile. I can see where the feminist perspective that this whole trans issue is the loony fringe of the “Patriarchy ” looking for relevance comes from.
For the vicious fringe of the trans moment its not just about sport its about them imposing their doctrine and as much as possible getting their small groups rights embedded in the legal system before people consider how that might affect other groups rights.
We actually NEED to be able to have a rational public discussion on this, but, the extreme Trans activists are at the moment making more progress to their, rather exclusive and in some ways simply silly agenda, by frightening anyone in public life with public tar and feathers. I would think they will be very active in an election campaign environment. 🙁
As far as the election, i dont think this will play very well over all for Morriscum politically and it is just showing up again how the Libs will go for division every time. 🙁 Might push a few to the Greens?? Will resonate a bit with the FreeDumbers i guess??
David Rowe
Arky @ #597 Monday, April 25th, 2022 – 5:30 pm
1. I’m just saying that this guy started it as a way of ‘engaging’ non university-educated male voters to vote for his political party:
And
They are both MPs for his political party.
2. I haven’t got the hots for Katherine Deves. Quite the opposite. I think she looks like she’s had a lot of work done to get to look like she does today. But it’s a free country and everyone has the right to make every post a winner. I’m simply pointing out that it’s unlikely to be a coincidence that she has become the avatar for a reversion to mean as to what it is to be a Woman in Morrison’s world.
Chris Ulmann is a dope and Deves is a dead cat on the table by accident. No master plan, no great saviour of the Coalition in seats alive to conservative populism or religious zealotry. Morrison is and never was a genius campaigner . These are urban myths the media love to rinse and repeat to make the election ‘interesting’.
The Coalition did not win the last election with their brilliant campaigning strategies. Labor IMHO lost the election on the back of trying to do too much too soon and scared the horses and Shorten talking out of both sides of his mouth ended any TRUST people had in him as leader.
Not the only factors involved of course, but I am yet to see any evidence that Morrison is a brilliant campaigner – he is just a fraud that is very good at lying in your face convincingly. He is just a dumb ass moron who did a Bradbury in 2019, nothing more nothing less.
yabba says:
Monday, April 25, 2022 at 5:46 pm
Upnorth @ #572 Monday, April 25th, 2022 – 5:05 pm
Freya Stark says:
Monday, April 25, 2022 at 4:27 pm
Faaaart
Freya you must give me a date so we can arrange to cut the grass next to the CWA Hall. The King Browns tend to hide there in winter.
Don’t mow the bloody grass!
===•=•••••••=======
Roger that. Freya just needs to be a bit careful. Maybe a pair of R. M Williams riding boots.
The Taipans and Tiger snakes can’t be helped. Stink bugs, Cane Beetles and Mosquitos can be kept away with some Mosquito coils.
If she goes swimming in the creek we will make the dogs go in first. The Crocs will take them first.
We won’t go to beach because the box jellyfish and sandflies are a bit thick after the big wet.
Thanks for the advice Yabba.
For what its worth, someone on Twitter said that Kenny on Sky News reported “not a lot of change” in the Newspoll.
Ipsos poll!!!! TPP, after undecided eliminated, unchanged on 55-45 for ALP.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/coalition-fails-to-make-ground-on-labor-20220425-p5aftw
Coalition struggles to make ground on Labor
Phillip Coorey Political editor
Updated Apr 25, 2022 – 6.02pm, first published at 6.00pm
The Coalition has struggled to make ground on Labor during the first two weeks of the campaign, despite Anthony Albanese’s stumbles, with a new poll showing both sides battling for the numbers to form majority government.
The latest The Australian Financial Review/Ipsos poll shows while Labor’s primary vote has slipped 1 percentage point and Mr Albanese’s disapproval rating has risen, Labor remains ahead of the Coalition and one-third of voters are either opting for a minor party or undecided.
(table here)
https://static.ffx.io/images/$width_620/t_resize_width%2Cq_88%2Cf_auto/9133b30fc86b8594420282b1f2d9cbf7b1a20b5c
I’ve seen a lot now that people are listing Corangamite as a Liberal gain.
If Labor won it in 2019 against the tide of the ‘Bill you can’t afford’ campaign in an area with a huge amount of retirees what exactly are the conditions that would cause it to go back to the Liberals in this campaign? Other than the lotto like numbers they (have spent) are spending on Stephanie Asher’s campaign.
Is it the deep love and affection that Victorian’s in that particular area will have for Morrison?
I’m genuine in asking for an explanation as it has me beat.
Finally some bloody polling!
Griff says:
Monday, April 25, 2022 at 5:57 pm
Upnorth @ Monday, April 25, 2022 at 5:23 pm
No business is happy when the sales assistant is so obvious about having placed a thumb on the scale
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Ita will be very pissed. All that training and forethought down the gurgler
Ipsos poll released:
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/coalition-fails-to-make-ground-on-labor-20220425-p5aftw
Labor 34%(-1) Coalition 32%(0) Greens 12%, One Nation 4%, United Australia Party 3% per cent, “others” 8%, undecided 8%
imacca @ 5.58pm,
Wow! I need to get out of the secure environment I live in more often. I have to admit that I have only come across woman to man Trans folk as a result of one being married to one of my son’s good friends. They take hormones to make them grow facial hair etc.
However, as it pertains to the environment you outlined, I would imagine that if any non-transitioned ‘females’ wanted to play sport in a team of females, or compete against other females, then they would naturally be prohibited from doing so until such time as they conformed to the already existing rules and regulations that global sporting bodies have instigated since the Caster Semenya controversy.
I certainly agree with that as a proposition because it obviously would create an unfair advantage for the untransitioned female against the biological female.
6 way the Liberals have attacked the ABC
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ORBH2Fjd2Ro&ab_channel=GetUp%21Australia
Who destroyed radio Australia. The Liberals.
Back to politics.
I was approached by Paul Busuttil in a local pub on Monday Arvo – in the marginal seat of Boothby.
Started by claiming that he was the only true independent (and that Jo Dyer [Teal candidate] was a Labor stooge).
He then talked about the Land Titles Office being sold off (apparently my house title was not safe) and then went on to talk about dozens of paedophiles in the Federal and State parliament (and various 80/90 year suppression orders to protect them).
He left me a brochure. It soon became confetti.
Apparently he is part of a consortium of 3 “independents” in SA (another in Barker and I can’t remember where else).
Absolute nutter. Not all independents are the same!
BK at 5:58 pm
Rowe get a gold koala stamp with oak leaves for the sign “Keep Calm and Tarry On”. 😆
@Parky – there is no strategy to the seats being targeted.
They’re targeting Labor seats below 5% … that’s it. They need to find options to plug the likely gaps and force Labor to play defence.
There’s no real logic.
Well bugger me dead. Polling hey.
Labor is the only Party that can form a majority.
A vote for the LNP is a vote for chaos and uncertainty.
I’m still astounded by the absence of corflutes. I was in Mascot, Botany and drove home via Eastlakes today. Not a corflute or poster to be seen. No billboards either.
It’s like the election isn’t happening in SE Sydney!
mj @ #635 Monday, April 25th, 2022 – 6:12 pm
I thought that Albo resonated well in the debate. He did what Marles did – interrupted the questions with answers. ScoMo just went back in history and come across as a policy free zone.
Busuttil sounds like a Maltese budgerigar.