The Australian reports the weekly campaign Newspoll has Labor’s lead steady at 53-47, with Labor up a point on the primary vote to 38% and the Coalition steady on 36%. One Nation has gained two points to 5% now that it is offered as a response option in every seat where it is fielding candidates, which is to say all but two of them compared with a little more than a third at the 2019 election, while the United Australia Party is steady on 4%. The report is silent on the Greens primary vote, but the full results should be up fairly shortly. (UPDATE: The Greens are steady at 11%). The poll also found 56% believed it was time for a change of government, with 44% favouring the alternative response that the Coalition deserved to be returned.
The leadership ratings have Scott Morrison up two on approval to 44% and down three on disapproval to 51%, while Anthony Albanese is up two to 40% and down one to 49%. Morrison leads 45-39 on preferred prime minister, in from 46-37. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1538.
Also out today from the Age/Herald is the second Resolve Strategic poll for the campaign, which finds the Coalition down two on 33% and Labor steady on 34%. The primary vote numbers are clearly influenced by the closure of nominations, which means response options accurately reflect what respondents will encounter on ballot papers in their own electorates. This results in a slump in the independent result from 9% to 4%, bringing an end to what was clearly a peculiarity on the part of the pollster (the accompanying report helpfully offers a “frequently asked questions” section to deal with this and other issues). This has proved a boon to the minor parties, particularly the Greens, who have surged four points to 15%, with One Nation and the United Australia Party also both increasing from 4% to 5%.
Resolve Strategic does not provide a two-party preferred result (though the Age/Herald report fills the gaps), but these numbers suggest around 54-46 in favour of Labor using flows from the 2019 election compared with 52-48 last time, albeit that the overall size of the non-major party vote makes such projections more uncertain. The pollster’s state breakdowns show substantially stronger results for Labor last time in New South Wales, with an implied two-party swing since the 2019 election of around 10% compared with around 4% in the last poll, and Victoria, where there is a Labor swing of around 4% this time after a slight swing the other way last time. The Queensland sub-sample suggests a Labor swing of around 4% compared with 6% last time. Labor’s two-party vote (as well as the Greens’ primary vote) is around five points stronger among women, much as it was last time.
Scott Morrison’s overall approval rating is down two points to 41% (which includes a five point drop in his “very good” rating to 10%) and his disapproval is up four to 51%. Anthony Albanese’s undecided rating is down six points, making room for a three-point increase in approval to 37% and a four-point increase in disapproval to 48%. Scott Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister goes from 38-30 to 39-33. The poll was conducted Tuesday to Saturday from a sample of 1408.
Arky, if the majors aren’t talking to the population so the people vote far right and far left, then the only way for the majors to head that off is to go far right or far left. Well, the Liberals have done that and … they’re apparently bleeding votes that are “rightfully theirs” (Credlin) while still bleeding on the wing. And Labor is not doing that and they’re apparently bleeding votes to the Greens while not picking up every vote the Liberals are dropping in the centre.
So maybe there isn’t a solution. If the electorate is losing its consensus then the party system will lose its coherence. And there just isn’t anything that can be done except ally with democrats however they got into parliament and serve the national interest not the partisan interest.
Despite anything Credlin said, no party has any right to exist or any right to seats.
I firmly believe that SfM missed his opportunity at a 4th liberal term of corruption late last year. And I think the Libs will loose very very badly to labor on the 21st. An 8 week campaign was such a fucking bad idea.
I don’t think SfM ever was a good campaigner. Bill Shorten just sucked at being likeable. I actually really respect Shorten, but I think he fucked himself with his ambitions during the RGR.
Anyway, all hail Albo our new King etc etc.
Btw, I don’t drink anymore, but I remember all the whiskey distillers in tassie were all going insolvent a while back. I wonder whats changed, and If I were the ALP, I’d be looking into those grants.
The teals seem a bit like a 21st century version of the DLP split from Labor except the teals were never previously Liberal party members. Like the DLP the teals can’t really bring themselves to vote for the other major party as they are historically wedded to the Liberals, but the way things are going inner city , relatively affluent electorates, are probably going to end up preferring Labor governments.
yikes Aspen medical. The body blows just keep coming to this godawful government. They are completely, utterly, irretrievably, corrupt. It seems like every portfolio.
At least you dont have to worry about Morgan herding.
State breakdowns point to 86 seats to ALP, more than anything i think these state breakdowns (IPSOS as well) show that the low primary is increasing the uncertainty of the 2PP estimates, it introduces a larger error to have to distribute votes based on past elections.
And thinking about the federal issues this election, they shouldn’t really be focused on specific states, not like the mining tax dividing us in previous elections. It would make sense to me if state biases reduced.
But anyway, looking at their state breakdowns.
No change in QLD with 56.5% still voting LNP.
Modest swing in WA down to 51%, only 1 seat change.
5 seats in NSW with a good swing.
Those state votes are ‘out there’ 63.5% to ALP in Victoria, hmm ok, thats 10 seats to ALP in Vic, all Libs gone, just leaving 3 nats, not taking that bet.
I’d argue the Libs are facing more structural problems than Labor, who has faced the threat of the Greens for some time.
My biggest takeaway from the last 3 years is that the media is usually so out of touch with the public mood. It’s difficult to tell how people really feel until after the votes have been counted.
Arky
I worry about this constantly amd wonder what would happen if we went MMR like NZ. I am amazed that Labour and National there have kept things together so much – I fully expected over the 25 years or so this has been in that it would more resemble Germany or Italy by now.
Labor does face many challenges but I look back at how terrible the 50s split must have been (and the results of that split have direct consequences for me v spouse and family!) – and times when it must have seemed Labor would never return to office federally.
I truly have no idea where things are headed. I look at some European countries I thought were stable democracies, and others that were ‘new’ democracies and I despair. And events in the USA particularly from state level which of course will push up into the federal sphere – I begin to wonder will I recognise that country if I go back there in ten years?
The work begins anew in 18 days I hope.
Bug
Absolutely right. If the teals become a force in select liberal seats and far right parties gain traction elsewhere, I think we’ll see 2PP become a very unreliable indicator. Maybe it already is.
south
I think Morrison wanted to go end of 2020 but was spooked by Victoria’s second Covid wave thinking it might break out nationally. Then same again last year – Delta wave which then morphed into Omicron – just couldn’t get ‘clear air’ so to speak.
Just as well.
Rocket Rocket,
Yeah it’s all about timing and the bad guys seem to suck at it.
Apparently Putin wanted to invade Ukraine during the winter Olympic and held off. Just enough time for NATO and the US to get weapons in and for the hard snow to melt.
I’m glad things are going the good guys way for once.
https://greens.org.au/platform/jobs
Or Morrison went full term because he consistently said he wanted to and was going to.
Not sure I believe that actually.
I think the major party vote share has held up here relative to other countries as we haven’t had any nationwide crisis so far to lead people to re-evaluate. My sense is we’re sitting beneath a house of cards and things will get quite bad economically in the next term of government given the current situation of over-leveraged households, low wage growth and high inflation. I don’t know how people would react politically if that eventuates, but I would guess people are likely to move to more radical parties of the left and right based on the experience elsewhere if that scenario happens.
Whoever is governing in the next term is going to have a really really rough time of it.
You’d have to say the answer to our immediate problems is debt, debt and more debt. Expand the role of government and maybe down the road we could raise taxes to pay for it all.
NGL – I’ll worry about the next shitfight once we deal with the one we’re currently confronting…
I will say compulsory voting is one of our best safeguards. Not perfect, but incredibly important.
Jt
How so? I’ve always thought CV is good because it forces people to at least pay some attention to politics, but that’s definitely not true.
What we must always retain is Instant Runoff Voting with mandatory full preferencing.
Andrew_Earlwoodsays:
Monday, May 2, 2022 at 5:07 am
What a smug piece of work GlenO is.
I offered one post as a pitch to him to not vote Green and he uses that, plus contributions from C@t and Brifely to vindicate a choice that I suspect he always wanted to make to vote Green.
===
A quick apology – Andrew, as I read your post while feeling quite angry at certain other posters, I slightly misread your post, and included you within a category that you didn’t belong. You still went for an angle that was critical of the Greens, when I wanted a positive pitch, but on looking back at what you posted before, I can see that you were not going for the rabid anti-Greens nonsense that I saw from certain others.
I would like to note that my comments about thinking about running were purely to emphasise that I don’t fall within the category of someone who is firmly attached to any party – I know my limitations, and I would be terrible at being a politician. It was not intended to suggest anything positive about me, just to reinforce that I’m a Labor/Green swing voter.
I should also mention that I do think Butler has done a solid job… but that politics is more than just raw policy, as you’ve said (which is why I can’t just go “she’s done a good job, she gets my vote”). I also don’t believe that Australians are as conservative (on average) as you suggest – which is why I don’t think there is anything to be feared from the Greens influencing policy. As you say, 2010-2013 demonstrated some issues… but so did 2007-2010, as Labor’s refusal to work with the Greens is what led to 2010 in the first place. There’s a happy medium, and I’d say it lies in the Greens having a strong voice while Labor forms majority.
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Douglas and Milkosays:
Monday, May 2, 2022 at 8:04 am
GlenO,
I think you should definitely vote 1 Green. Your posts suggest that you are strongly leaning this way, but that you are worried that your vote, if you vote 1 Green, may help an LNP member take Griffith for the Coalition, possibly being the seat that puts the Coalition in the box seat to form government.
===
That’s the irony of the situation – I actually don’t lean Greens right now. When I evaluate the two parties, I find them to be very comparable in both ideology and current policy value. If I knew my vote wouldn’t make a difference, I’d probably vote Greens, purely because we need both voices boosted, and the Greens need more funding to do that (and more encouragement to improve), but if the Greens were the dominant party in the country, I’d vote Labor in that situation.
If one of the candidates stood out as a bad candidate, I’d use that to decide which way to vote… but they both seem good. And when I posted the question, I leaned ever so slightly towards Labor, because the Greens were the ones that went negative in the campaign in the seat (in terms of Labor vs Greens). But it’s such a small lean, I’ve been looking for something more solid.
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Boerwarsays:
Monday, May 2, 2022 at 8:59 am
GlenO
Your choice, of course. That is how representative democracy works.
===
I appreciate your argument. I don’t entirely agree that it needs to be unknown or unpredictable (in fact, setting aside politics itself, which was mostly due to Gillard’s stronger skills in administrating government than leading people, 2010-2013 was actually an incredibly productive period, and I wouldn’t call it unpredictable), but it’s certainly a valid concern. Thank you for putting forward an argument that wasn’t based on calling the Greens bad.
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Firefoxsays:
Monday, May 2, 2022 at 12:56 pm
Rest assured that voting 1 Green and 2 Labor in Griffith will NOT help the Coalition in any way. If Max doesn’t win, your vote will still go to Terri instead.
===
The problem is, it’s not quite that simple. While preferential voting is a lot less likely to have “strategic voting” factors, it does still have them. You can see this in play quite strongly in the Teal seats, where some Labor and Greens voters will vote for the Teal candidate first, not because they’re the best option, but because they’ve got the best chance of winning if they’re in the 2CP. The same can happen in Griffith – it’s possible that Labor would win the 2CP against the LNP, but the Greens wouldn’t from the same 3CP point… and if that’s the case, then a vote for Greens could in fact result in the LNP winning the seat.
Of course, it’s possible it would play the other way… but that’s less likely. Even if Labor voters will have their preferences flow stronger to Greens than LNP, the PHON and UAP preferences that don’t go straight to LNP may be more likely to go Labor>LNP>Greens (because if you’re willing to vote PHON, you probably hate the Greens).
Also note the “there is increasingly very little difference between Labor and the Liberal Party” line from Chandler-Mather’s social media person… this is a BAD line, and is just plain wrong. Labor far, far better than the Liberals, on almost every front. And the Greens know it – the line given is purely a political spin campaign, and is not appreciated by me. Thus why I wanted arguments that aren’t about attacking the other party. (and before someone tries to claim this is how I should compare, note that Labor have specifically ruled out any kind of deal with the Greens, which to me is basically the equivalent… if it does end up as a hung parliament, Labor will definitely end up forming an agreement with the Greens, they’ll just base it on things they both agree on)
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Steve777says:
Monday, May 2, 2022 at 1:26 pm
Gleno – as long as you put the Coalition last your vote can’t help them.
===
Not true. And it’s precisely why strategic voting is happening in the Teal seats.
Because it doesn’t allow people to sit out because of x or y. You can’t force people to care – but you do force them to make a choice.
US style runs to the extremes ARE possible in our system, but much harder. Parties actually have to think beyond their most excited …
mj @ Monday, May 2, 2022 at 11:37 pm
Privatisation of social services is wrong. It may take a while, but when the majority realises they are affected, change happens. A pandemic is a good catalyst.
A government contract cannot replace a social contract.
As far as the discussion earlier in the thread about whether the modern Labor party is left, right, inside, outside, upside, downside a brief generic and incomplete summary could read.
It began as a democratic Socialist party with a strong ethno Nationalist streak. Whitlam transformed it into something more like a North Western European Social Democratic party and then Hawke and Keating turned into something like the American Democrats.
Since 1993 new new Labor has managed one parliamentary majority federally. If Labor can’t win a stable majority this time (and I am far from convinced they will) then the problem is clearly not about leaders or campaign strategy, it is an existential one.
Essentially it will mean the American Democrat model just doesn’t work in 21st century Australian federal politics, it can’t put together a big enough coalition of voters to win parliamentary majorities more than once a generation.
“then a vote for Greens could in fact result in the LNP winning the seat.”
***
Not if you put the Greens first and Labor somewhere above the LNP – if the Greens don’t make the final count against the LNP, your preference will transfer to Labor and help them against the LNP.
If you want to kick the Liberals out, then the Greens are the party for you. Nobody stands against the Coalition’s toxic agenda more forcefully than them.
https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/05/01/resolve-strategic-coalition-33-labor-34-greens-15/comment-page-31/#comment-3888285
MMP not MMR (MMR is a vaccine)
Jt
Yep. Not to mention that the only way to win in the US now seems to be to incite as much emotion (usually negative) among your supporters as possible, so that they actually bother to turn out.
@MJ
Western European countries mostly have some form of pr, our system herds everything back to the majors; people who vote for minors see no representation coming from it and that kills momentum.
Independents can win seats federally but the barriers to entry for minor parties are very high.
“Also note the “there is increasingly very little difference between Labor and the Liberal Party” line from Chandler-Mather’s social media person…”
***
Unfortunately, it’s just the truth, especially at this election with Labor’s employing a small target strategy and offering very little.
I could go through all the hundreds of times Labor has teamed up with the Coalition in the Parliament – tax cuts for the rich, deliberately leaving people JobSeekers in poverty, fracking the Beetaloo Basin, etc… – but honestly, the Greens are looking forward at this election an offering Australians hope and a fresh approach from that of the duopoly. Those issues are for them to explain.
Like you, I live in a seat the Greens are competitive in (Richmond), and I’ll be voting 1 Green and 2 Labor. I want my candidate, Mandy Nolan, to win, but if she doesn’t, my vote will go to Justine Elliott instead and help her retain the seat against the Nats, just as it has the last three elections. Labor would not hold my seat if it wasn’t for Greens voters like me putting them second, or at least somewhere above the Nats.
We have a wonderful preferential voting system here in Australia and we really should make the most of it and get the most value out of our votes as possible.
Doing a full-on Trumpist base-only campaign works far less well when there is compulsory voting.
This fact is unlikely to be the salvation of Albanese Labor, though.
https://twitter.com/sudharmapala/status/1520945000686952449?s=21&t=UM4i693RnptfxNB9Ov9F5w
Looks like Labor may be on the road to disendorsing Mich-Elle Myers (ALP Junior VP and now NSW Senate candidate) over past controversial comments. Very interesting.
Apologies if this was discussed today and I missed it.
@Voodoo Blues
I see your point, but I’m coming more from the view that the current real world situation is inherently instable and likely to collapse. If that happens that would shake up the political mix.
@Firefox
Is our system so great the greens get 10% of the vote and 0.6% of the seats.Our system herds everything back to the major parties.
To Labor the greens are nothing more than a preference harvesting machine that can be treated with contempt because their preferences have nowhere else to go.
Rocket Rocket, yes NZ is an interesting counterpoint. The opposition, whoever it is, always looks like they’re vulnerable and about to die and then they build themselves back up again. At one point they would have loved the ALP’s primary vote, Ardern scraped into government and they won a majority in their own right in a PR system. (Tasmania also shows how PR can concentrate rather than disperse the vote. WA showed that CPV can still turn up primary vote majorities.)
I don’t think we should be despairing. The reason for malaise in Australia is the media, but they’ve jumped the shark. Think, an entire city-wide newspaper devoting their frontpage to a reelection campaign of a single electorate. I don’t think they can shift opinions like they could a decade ago because it’s obvious they aren’t neutral. Remember how in the US they distinguish between Murdoch and the MSM, but in Australia those are the very same thing. They’re already running at full capacity. Australia is at the leading edge of this antidemocratic turn and we’re almost certainly at the nadir now.
Things are spraying at the moment, but the circumstances for a new democratic consolidation are here. PUP and ONP look like they could win senate representation but not HoR. If Labor manages to win, Independent threats like Dai Le alongside a federal ICAC and the failure of the carbon price to win the approval of the electorate will push a future Labor government into a nation building direction, not relying on neoliberal policies yet not spooking business. Labor will also take it for granted that the Teals aren’t in their target market – after all, they bothered to tread new ground.
If the Coalition somehow eke out a majority, the Senate will still manage to be a problem for them. They will probably struggle to pass any legislation at all, so while they will do many corrupt things they won’t be able to strip us of our democracy (unlike the US). They will have got into government on a uniquely multicultural electorate, so they will have a lot of internal pressure to ease up on their racism and anti immigrant stances. They will probably cut taxes – but that means the states will have to find new tax bases, because they won’t have an alternative (they will also quietly continue work on decarbonisation). The winners and losers will be shaken up in an environment where Murdoch seems impotent. Australia will surely be poorer for it, but we won’t become a Christian Taliban state.
Great post Felix, cheers. Hope is not lost!
“Is our system so great the greens get 10% of the vote and 0.6% of the seats.Our system herds everything back to the major parties.
To Labor the greens are nothing more than a preference harvesting machine that can be treated with contempt because their preferences have nowhere else to go.”
***
Oh I agree, the number of seats the Greens hold in the House does not yet match their large vote but they continue to make progress towards more and are now very competitive in many. Their representation in the Senate is much more in proportion.
Labor does treat the Greens and with contempt a lot of the time, you are right about that. They believe they are entitled to the votes of the progressive left, even though they do not consistently represent our values. I’m not sure that treating the one and a half million Australians who vote Green with contempt is the best way to win us back, but that seems to be the approach many of them take.
@MJ
Remember it was the high inflation that came out of the early seventies oil crises that ended the post war Keynsian consensus and led to classical economics becoming mainstream again especially in the anglosphere countries.
Well inflation is back it might be short lived or it might not but if isn’t it will bring changes, they might be for the better but they could just as easily be very ugly indeed.
Dishonesty, lack of integrity and corruption are rampant within the federal government.
The reporting of dishonesty, lack of integrity and corruption is coloured with self-interest.
The prosecution of dishonesty, lack of integrity and corruption is stymied by self-interest.
The establishment of a comprehensive and unrestricted federal ICAC is necessary to restore honesty, integrity and trust.
The establishment of the ICAC is needed before the leadership of the nation and government can move forward.
In the up-coming election the LNP are opposing changes to lack of integrity, dishonesty and corruption as it exists.
The LNP need to be preferenced last at the very least and not at all if possible..
At the he moment there appears to be enough voters wanting an ICAC.
PM Morrison and the LNP are endorsing dishonesty, lack of integrity and corruption.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gz4IkzM217U
Morrisons 3 years of shitfuckery.
steve davis @ 2.01am
“bloody brilliant”
Do we know how widely viewed this clip/product/report is?
New thread.
Leaders Debates:
The ALP should have stuck to their principles and insisted that any further debates are held at media neutral venues -such as the National Press Club.
At least Albanese is prepared to stand solo and face the public on Q & A, with Spiers.
I wouldn’t tune if it was going to be controlled, rather than moderated, by that pompous windbag Stan Grant.
Scummo, The Prime Minimal, doesn’t want scrutiny – he just wants his media mates to serve him up a steady round of Dorothy Dixers.
Boarded up Shop Fronts:
Thanks Sprocket.
I particularly enjoyed the juxtaposition of the derelict shop fronts with the slogan of a “Stronger Economy”.
Either Josh has a previously unknown sense of irony or his campaign team are extremely desperate and stupid not to notice the absurdity of this look.
Yes C@T Momma, Robertson will be top of my viewing list on the 21st, too.
Today is the day when my friend discovers if the Lucy Wicks corflutes have been removed from outside her business or whether a 9.00.01 am call be sent to Ausgrid.
Sophie Scamps Launch.
Thanks Sprocket, love the juxtaposition demonstrated by the two photographs.
The old saying about judging someone’s character by the company they keep is ably demonstrated in the second photograph.
So, Give the Cash has been smuggled out of media protection onto the northern beaches of Sydney. As far away from Perth as possible.
Speers is not a fair interviewer though albanes did prity well on hadley last week morrison has not dun a serious interview since 7.30 a few weeks back
A lovely photo of Liberal MP and Goldstein candidate meeting with his supporters here.