Two bits of private polling to have emerged over the past day:
• The Advertiser reports a uComms poll for the SA Forest Products Association finds Labor with a 55-45 lead in the Adelaide seat of Boothby, held by the Liberals on a margin of 1.4% and to be vacated with the retirement of Nicolle Flint. The primary votes are Liberal 32.6%, Labor 31.7%, Greens 10.5% and independent Jo Dyer 5.5% – an element of the remainder would have been undecided and posed a forced-response follow-up, for which the results are not provided. Respondent-allocated preferences among the independents and minor parties flowed over 70% to Labor. The automated phone poll was conducted on Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 810.
• The Canberra Times reports a Redbridge poll of the Australian Capital Territory Senate race for Climate 200 had Labor Senator Katy Gallagher on 27% (down from 39.3% in 2019), Liberal Senator Zed Seselja on 25% (down from 32.4%), independent David Pocock on 21%, the Greens on 11% (down from 17.7%), independent Kim Rubenstein on 6% and the United Australia Party on 6% (up from 2.3%). These figures suggest Seselja would lose his seat to Pocock, although the fall in the Labor vote is enough to suggest that any combination of two out of Gallagher, Seselja and Pocock is possible. The automated phone poll was conducted on April 23 and 24 from a sample of 1064.
The Age/Herald had a report yesterday based on a combination of the last two Resolve Strategic federal polls, allowing journalist David Crowe to analyse New South Wales, Victorian and Queensland breakdowns from plausibly large sample size (though only as high as 509 in the case of Queensland). However, since breakdowns for these states are published with each monthly poll, it’s old news as far as I’m concerned.
In other electoral news, today is the day of Tasmania’s periodic Legislative Council elections, which this year encompass the Hobart seat of Elwick, which seems likely to be retained for Labor by Josh Willie; the north-eastern rural seat of McIntyre, where long-serving independent Tania Rattray might or might not be troubled by independent rival David Downie; and what is technically a by-election in Huon, covering the towns south of Hobart, resulting from the resignation of Labor-turned-independent member Bastian Seidel. The latter would seem to be a competitive race involving Labor, Liberal and three other candidates, and constitutes an electoral test of sorts for the state’s new Premier, Jeremy Rockliff. This site will feature live commentary of some description from 6pm.
@barney: Katie Allen had her say in the Age today
Freya Stark @ #450 Saturday, May 7th, 2022 – 3:40 pm
So what are her achievements?
Evan, I doubt he will do well at all in the central parts you mention. Most of the booths around jervis bay, St. George’s basin have traditionally gone to Labor. Ulladulla is a similar story and even parts of batemans bay have gone Labor in recent times. Those collective communities have just as many – if not more population than the traditionally Lib leaning booths of Nowra and the northern shoalhaven. In addition to this Fiona Philips spends every day she’s not in parliament out and about door knocking and speaking to the electorate- this fact alone I feel has been significantly underestimated by the Libs. Demographics are also changing, once known as a popular place for rusted on LNP-leaning retirees to live out their days it is now attracting lots of young families to settle as seen by the manly new housing estates to pop up in recent times. A fun fact being the mayor of Shoalhaven is an offical member of the Greens and has been re-elected twice, and in the last election this year the first ever Labor councillors were elected.
Historyintime @ #186 Saturday, May 7th, 2022 – 11:11 am
What you haven’t accounted for is that most of those “overseas” comparisons are with optional voting. Because “get out the vote” factors aren’t present in Australia, the extremes don’t get as strong a showing (because it tends to be the extreme people who are most dedicated to making sure they get out and vote – the more centrist people are more likely to be complacent).
Woke-pc-thug @ #314 Saturday, May 7th, 2022 – 2:16 pm
Before 2021, that would be a reasonable expectation. And then WA 2021 happened. Swings of over 20% in a number of seats. Swings of nearly 20% in Liberal-held seats. And that’s in a state where UAP and PHON are practically nonexistent. In QLD, both parties are likely to take a chunk of votes off LNP, and then leak preferences to ALP (if PHON/UAP don’t get into the 2CP) as some voters who flip will be voting against LNP and be unwilling to put ALP first.
Upnorth @ #362 Saturday, May 7th, 2022 – 3:37 pm
This keeps being brought up. The Greens non-Metropolitan vote went UP in 2019. And it likely helped both Greens *and* Labor – Greens because it raised awareness in those areas, Labor because they could openly call out the Greens and win over people in the area who were offended by it.
As far as I can see, the only seats that the Greens went backwards in 2019 in the QLD regional seats were Hinkler and Groom. And both of *those* seats are considered “Provincial” rather than “Rural”.
I don’t think it was an especially effective decision by Bob Brown, but I don’t think it actually hurt the Greens (or the left in general).
Evan @ #334 Saturday, May 7th, 2022 – 5:23 pm
He’s definitely an asset. He’s also the Labor equivalent of Howard, in that, if he’s sent somewhere, it probably means Labor are hoping to push it over the line into the Labor win… which is wonderful for a heap of Liberal seats he’s visited. It does mean Parramatta is in play, though.
On a related note – does anyone know if there’s a listing anywhere of which seats Rudd and Howard have each campaigned in? It would be interesting to look at the lists, as it might be informative as to which seats are in play.
Sportsbet has Labor at $6.00 and the Liberals at $1.10 for the seat of Banks. It’s insane that this used to be a safe Labor seat. I can’t think of another seat where things have shifted so quickly. The Daryl Melham days seem like a millenia ago. I reckon less than 4% swing to Labor in Banks on May 21.
ltep @ #448 Saturday, May 7th, 2022 – 5:38 pm
Also, as others have pointed out, Constance is very popular in the southern part of the seat. I am not sure this is going to be enough for him to win, but Fiona Phillips has not exactly been a stellar performer – and she only won last time because the Liberals put up a complete train-wreck of a candidate.
What IS the tripe?
Sorry, just arrived home.
Was in Toowoomba at Easter. There are two independents in Groom with very visible campaigns, don’t know if either has any chance though.
Freya Stark says:
Saturday, May 7, 2022 at 5:15 pm
Sukkar would be likely to retain his seat even if both Frydenburg and Katie Allen are eliminated. He’d probably be thinking “So long suckers!” about them in a factional smirk if that happens.
_______
Why do some people think Frydenberg is a moderate? In any case he is very close to Sukkar who won’t at all be happy at losing him.
I suppose she had to find out where the Solomon Islands were.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-07/marise-payne-discusses-china-deal-solomon-islands-minister/101046744
Tasmanian upper house elections live commentary post:
https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/05/07/tasmanian-upper-house-elections-live-3/
Though I’d update this as the odds have shifted through the day
Slightly modified calculation to take account of the “Coalition Majority” odds are effectively nonexistent – so the probability is inferred from the other markets
Implied probability of winning from betfair.com*
As at: May-08 (previous week in brackets)
Liberal majority: 0.5% (15%)
Liberal minority: 28% (20%)
Labor minority: 12% (18%)
Labor majority: 59% (47%)
Average number of seats LNP seat lost to ALP: 7.6 (6.0)
MOE (95% CI): 11.0 (12.7)
* Using Win, Majority, Type of government markets
Fiona Phillips is one of the most honest, passionate and hard working politicians on the planet. P1, piss off back to the lower north shore. Politics in the park in Husky today exposed the softcock tory as just that. He was recommended to become a independent because he was such a moderate , at great laughter from the gathering. Carmel tore the Tories to shreds, Fiona was calm and positive, and the one independent was exposed as an antivaxxer lightweight LOL. And she is all yours P1
“Was in Toowoomba at Easter. There are two independents in Groom with very visible campaigns, don’t know if either has any chance though.”
There was a online survey on the Toowoomba Chronicle website which they admitted was unscientific. And the poll results were:
LNP Garth Hamilton: 36.1%
Independent Suzie Holt:25.5%
Labor Gen Allpass: 20.6%
There was a suggestion the seat may change hands. One political lecturer while acknowledging independents are gaining support was still sceptical. And suggested LNP and Labor would finish in the final two party preferred vote in Groom with Hamilton comfortably retaining his seat.
That maybe what Lars was referring too.
Ha!
LubiePhilrunfreeFionn@lubiephil · 33m
German word for having the might of every mass media organisation campaigning for you (ABC included) and yet still trailing in the polls ?
outside left @ #463 Saturday, May 7th, 2022 – 6:11 pm
Did I touch a nerve?
nath @ #358 Saturday, May 7th, 2022 – 5:59 pm
Until very recently, I was of the understanding that he was a moderate. Either he was a moderate and then defected, or someone has done a lot of work behind the scenes to… let’s say “fertilise”… the idea that he’s a moderate.
An AFR article from 2019 seems to suggest that he moved into Morrison’s faction after becoming treasurer and deputy, but that he seemed to already be heading that way based on the recent behaviour at the time. So perhaps you could assert that he’s at the moderate end of Morrison’s faction? I don’t know…
Sohar says:
Saturday, May 7, 2022 at 6:13 pm
Ha!
LubiePhilrunfreeFionn@lubiephil · 33m
German word for having the might of every mass media organisation campaigning for you (ABC included) and yet still trailing in the polls ?
________________
weltschmerz
Sportsbet has over 5 seats independents at 1.90 to 1. Given 3 already in the house (Indi, Clark and Warringah) seems good odds to me? Hughes now looks in plat as well as Vic and NSW teal seats more often spoken about
Outside left you are correct. Most pundits don’t live in the Gilmore electorate and just see the so called star power of Constance. Internal polling is looking very good for her
Evan @ #417 Saturday, May 7th, 2022 – 5:00 pm
Higgins is interesting from a tactical voting perspective. If you were purely trying to maximize the chances of defeating the Liberals logic would suggest you’d vote green.
Should have some Banks sausage soon, low visibilty Labor candidate but the ‘vibe’ against ScoMo is building…
Was in the suburbs today and out of the city, finally starting to look like an election campaign is on. Maroubra and Malabar are heavily layered with Matt Thistlewaite corflutes. I was surprised to see David Shoebridge is running for the Greens. I thought he was a NSW state MP.
Nath,
‘Weltschmerz’.
Yes, I imagine melancholia must be setting in among the media by now.
Liberal factions have always been fluid, and tend to be built around individuals. Frydenburg is probably only a ‘moderate’ in the sense that its a brand.
Whatever happened to Eden Monaro as being THE bellwether seat? Looking good for another great local member.
North Sydney is another one to watch
Zimmerman’s PV is approaching 40, and whoever finishes second has a big show.
The teal Tink, sadly has Covid and is off the hustings. Hers to lose.
The excellent Labor candidate Catherine Renshaw is getting some heavyweights to the meet&greets with the local burghers, who I am reliably informed, are happy to lose the seat to see the end of the Morrison Club.
GlenO says:
Saturday, May 7, 2022 at 6:15 pm
nath @ #358 Saturday, May 7th, 2022 – 5:59 pm
Why do some people think Frydenberg is a moderate? In any case he is very close to Sukkar who won’t at all be happy at losing him.
Until very recently, I was of the understanding that he was a moderate. Either he was a moderate and then defected, or someone has done a lot of work behind the scenes to… let’s say “fertilise”… the idea that he’s a moderate.
An AFR article from 2019 seems to suggest that he moved into Morrison’s faction after becoming treasurer and deputy, but that he seemed to already be heading that way based on the recent behaviour at the time. So perhaps you could assert that he’s at the moderate end of Morrison’s faction? I don’t know…
______________________
My understanding is that Frydenberg has always walked between the Moderates and Conservatives. Always conscious of building a coalition of support behind his inevitable ascent to the throne. He has given out moderate vibes more publicly, conservative vibes privately.
His dream was that both factions come to him on bended knee. But you are right, more recently he has been a part of Morrison’s Center Right grouping, but only as a means to an end. He is the Liberal equivalent of Shorten. He will never give up, never stop seeing a Crown in the mirror. It’s been there since High School.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/liberal-senator-wants-lgbtq-students-protected-as-pm-promises-religious-discrimination-laws-20220505-p5aiyk.html
Apparently he represented the Liberals at an LGBTQ election forum hosted by Patricia Karvelas the other night.
P1, years ago. Lots of ICE groovy machines at your resort lately? I have known Fiona since before politics, was one of the two members to nominate her for Gilmore when she faced a preselection,and have had the privilege of seeing her maturing politically into a popular and effective local member. People don’t know, but during those horrendous bushfires, instead of going to New Zealand with hubby and four kids, she stayed here and attended the fire headquaters in Nowra, and visited the fire sites, every f#ckin day, including Christmas day. She has fought for assistance for the likes of you relentlessly. You madam are a piece of work.
Thanks for the extra inside information about Fiona Phillips. I’ve admired her and even more so now.
I am intersted in Gilmore because my grandparents lived in the seat for a long time and I spent school holidays down there in Lake Conjola as a child and teenager, so yes, very familiar with the Shoalhaven area. By the way my grandfather and grandmother were staunch Labor voters.
Fiona Phillips is a very hardworking local MP, says the anecdotal evidence. Andrew Constance was a dud state NSW minister for transport – enough said.
If Minister Payne is meeting SI dignitaries w/out opposition equivalents, then clearly the careraker convention is dead and buried.
“This keeps being brought up. The Greens non-Metropolitan vote went UP in 2019. And it likely helped both Greens *and* Labor – Greens because it raised awareness in those areas, Labor because they could openly call out the Greens and win over people in the area who were offended by it.”
This keeps being brought up…..the Greens non-Metropolitan vote going up misses the point. More generally you are wrong, the progressive vote went down overall in non-Metro Queensland. It just served as a huge wedge and helped deliver government to the tories.
The Greens didn’t even benefit from the main objective in that they won no extra seats in the lower house…..all those seats with “stop Labor’s adani mine” spammed round them.
FMD!
Examination of Sportsbet odds tells me the following seats should be added to those in contention: Bennelong, Hughes, Mackeller.
It is very possible that up to 10 independents could be elected in the next parliament.
Latest Kooyong odds with Ladbrokes:
Joshy – $1.80
Teal – $1.92
Not much in it.
WWP at 7pm
“If Minister Payne is meeting SI dignitaries w/out opposition equivalents, then clearly the careraker convention is dead and buried.”
When was the last time the Liberal Party gave a shit about Westminster conventions?
The Revisionist @ #483 Saturday, May 7th, 2022 – 7:02 pm
Literally, the AEC provides summaries of the results. It takes a whole 3 seconds to check it.
https://results.aec.gov.au/24310/Website/HouseDemographicFirstPrefsByParty-24310-QLD-NonMetropolitan.htm
The Greens’ primary vote went up by 0.66% in non-metropolitan seats.
But sure, keep making up claims without having the evidence ready to back it up. Care to take a shot at my claim that only Groom and Hinkler among the regional seats saw a drop in Greens vote?
(in fact, Queensland and South Australia are the only states that didn’t see a drop in Greens vote in non-metropolitan areas. Make of that part what you will…)
Evan at 7.03
Part of my ‘nice dream’ includes a Labor seat tally above 80, a cross bench of 10 and the Coalition scrambling to find something resembling an Opposition Leader!
Evan, two and a fair bit years later, most of the burnt out houses there are still not rebuilt.
GlenO @ #486 Saturday, May 7th, 2022 – 5:07 pm
And what happened to the progressive vote?
I think you’ll find it fell.
Quite accurately, a number of contributors adjudge Murdoch to be more rancid than in other campaigns, except perhaps ’75?
In such circumstance, the question is why? This is where Rudd steps in, and why he’s a Labor asset, garnering the support of some 500,000 petitioners for his call for media diversity. This didn’t, I think, go unnoticed, highlighting the hold that the Murdoch assumes he has.
It’s said of his son Lachlan, he’s more rabid than his old man. Thus, although not foreshadowed by Albanese, an inquiry into media ownership/diversity should follow his election.
It’d be a hoot if the child of a single-mum, from a Commission home in Camperdown, prevailed over the power of the Hurst-like Murdoch, his only commiseration, the support of dear Jerry(?).
Outside left , yes, totally tragic. Those people have been neglected by federal and state Liberal governments.
Snappy Tom: Albo with a Rudd 2007 like majority, a big cross bench, the Liberals without any so called moderate MPs, Dutton next opposition leader – I will get very drunk if that is the result.
Sussan Ley:
Right now we are not painting a picture of what we might do in government after the election.
Marvellous.
ltep @ #492 Saturday, May 7th, 2022 – 5:19 pm
Don’t worry Suss.
With Labor proposing an ICAC with teeth, they’re painting the picture for you.
An 11 minute clip (I believe from the excellent ‘Submariners’ doco series) of
HMAS Rankin defeating a US task group on an exercise. Spoiler: once Rankin took photos proving she was within torpedoing range of her American target, she switched on a recording of Men at Work’s “Down Under” to signal she’d won!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d8Kv4rqR6RQ
”Dutton next opposition leader”
Quite likely if he keeps his seat. The Liberals will assume that they lost because they weren’t right-wing enough.
Evan at 7.17
Other features of my ‘nice dream’: BOTH Frydenberg and Dutton having to find post-parliament employment shortly after 21 May!
The unrealistic hopes and expectation the LNP has in Gilmore is more founded in a need for them to believe they can take it. Gilmore was always going to be a must for them to help counter the widely expected loses they are anticipating elsewhere. So I guess they are confident because they have to be- without it they are toast.
Much in a similar vein to Lindsay where I now reside. Two crucial NSW seats that have psychological significance for the LNP heavies
Sussan Ley “Right now we are not painting a picture of what we might do in government after the election.”
She admits it*.
Of course, if they did, voters would recoil in horror – cuts to health, education, Medicare, social security, further defunding of tertiary eduction and the ABC… it’s ballot box poison.
*Can’t find the quote