Two bits of private polling to have emerged over the past day:
• The Advertiser reports a uComms poll for the SA Forest Products Association finds Labor with a 55-45 lead in the Adelaide seat of Boothby, held by the Liberals on a margin of 1.4% and to be vacated with the retirement of Nicolle Flint. The primary votes are Liberal 32.6%, Labor 31.7%, Greens 10.5% and independent Jo Dyer 5.5% – an element of the remainder would have been undecided and posed a forced-response follow-up, for which the results are not provided. Respondent-allocated preferences among the independents and minor parties flowed over 70% to Labor. The automated phone poll was conducted on Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 810.
• The Canberra Times reports a Redbridge poll of the Australian Capital Territory Senate race for Climate 200 had Labor Senator Katy Gallagher on 27% (down from 39.3% in 2019), Liberal Senator Zed Seselja on 25% (down from 32.4%), independent David Pocock on 21%, the Greens on 11% (down from 17.7%), independent Kim Rubenstein on 6% and the United Australia Party on 6% (up from 2.3%). These figures suggest Seselja would lose his seat to Pocock, although the fall in the Labor vote is enough to suggest that any combination of two out of Gallagher, Seselja and Pocock is possible. The automated phone poll was conducted on April 23 and 24 from a sample of 1064.
The Age/Herald had a report yesterday based on a combination of the last two Resolve Strategic federal polls, allowing journalist David Crowe to analyse New South Wales, Victorian and Queensland breakdowns from plausibly large sample size (though only as high as 509 in the case of Queensland). However, since breakdowns for these states are published with each monthly poll, it’s old news as far as I’m concerned.
In other electoral news, today is the day of Tasmania’s periodic Legislative Council elections, which this year encompass the Hobart seat of Elwick, which seems likely to be retained for Labor by Josh Willie; the north-eastern rural seat of McIntyre, where long-serving independent Tania Rattray might or might not be troubled by independent rival David Downie; and what is technically a by-election in Huon, covering the towns south of Hobart, resulting from the resignation of Labor-turned-independent member Bastian Seidel. The latter would seem to be a competitive race involving Labor, Liberal and three other candidates, and constitutes an electoral test of sorts for the state’s new Premier, Jeremy Rockliff. This site will feature live commentary of some description from 6pm.
“With Labor proposing an ICAC with teeth, they’re painting the picture for you.”
Yah. 🙂
I’m pleased that the ALP has announced the Robodebt RC and hope that we don’t end up with the ALP mimicking the Libs history of RC’s into everything. I think that devalues the institution of the RC when they can be, or easily spun as, partisan politics driven.
A proper FICAC is i think the answer to that issue. Its independently run and can pick what it pursues. However, its a place where people can go to blow the whistle on something and hopefully its mere existence will have a chilling affect on corruption in Australia. No silver bullet, and even with this there are a lots of the current LNP crew that should go down, but wont since they may well have died of old age before they come to the head of the to be investigated cue. But its a vast improvement on where we are now.
That said, my very Tribal Inner Bitch is going to be well pleased if the first few to get banged up and /or disgraced are current Govt frontbenchers.
Sadly for the LNP, it may well find itself having to rebuild without the wise counsel of many of its fair-minded moderate party members.
Never mind. The lunatic fringe will certainly still be there.
Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #491 Saturday, May 7th, 2022 – 7:14 pm
What’s your point? Do you believe the Greens doing something stupid meant people wouldn’t vote for the other progressive parties… but more would vote for the Greens in non-metropolitan Queensland?
I’m honestly stumped.
But let’s humour the argument. Non-metropolitan Queensland, progressive parties.
Greens – up 0.66%
Animal Justice+Sustainable Australia+Australian Progressives – new for 2019, adds 0.71%
Progressive parties that contested in 2016 but not 2019… maybe Drug Law Reform? The Arts Party? Those two together 0.2%.
So by my count, the vote of parties to the left of Labor had a net gain in non-metropolitan QLD seats of 1.17%.
Or did you mean to add Labor? Because if we’re playing that game, it seems to me the choice by Labor to run with Shorten was the much bigger bone-headed move, when Albanese was far superior. Or are you trying to suggest that Bob Brown is the reason why Labor did so poorly in Queensland, and Labor doing badly isn’t Labor’s fault at all?
outside left says:
Saturday, May 7, 2022 at 6:26 pm
Whatever happened to Eden Monaro as being THE bellwether seat? Looking good for another great local member.
Sportsbet has Knokles (LNP) at $7 and McBain (lab) $1.08 so get on the Knocker!
Itep
“ Sussan Ley:
Right now we are not painting a picture of what we might do in government after the election.
Marvellous.”
Sounds like a small target to me.
Steve777 @ #500 Saturday, May 7th, 2022 – 7:31 pm
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-07/prime-minister-remains-firm-on-religious-discrimination-bill/101047200
There you go. 🙂
Stephanie Borys @StephieBorys
Govt Minister Sussan Ley was asked about how govt would handle RDA if re-elected: “I’m not focused on what happens after the election I am focused on…what happens in the next two weeks….right now we’re not painting a picture of what we might do in govt after the election.”
The mood here changes from despondent to euphoric faster than a speeding bullet.
Snappy Tom
“ Evan at 7.17
Other features of my ‘nice dream’: BOTH Frydenberg and Dutton having to find post-parliament employment shortly after 21 May!”
What the heck, we’re both sharing the same dreams!
GlenO @ #501 Saturday, May 7th, 2022 – 5:35 pm
And Labor’s fell by 4.18%, so the net effect is that the progressive vote fell by more than 3%.
Not a lot of movement at Sportsbet but Betfair has shortened for the ALP.
Sportsbet: ALP 1.38 Coalition 3.00
Betfair: ALP 1.39 Coalition 3.45
GlenO says:
Saturday, May 7, 2022 at 7:35 pm
The Greens ran a vehemently Labor-hostile campaign in QLD that served as a clear counter-point to the campaign by their political cousins, the Lying Reactionaries. Labor’s vote was trashed. How about that! This, of course, was the intention of the Greens all along. Labor still carry the burden of their losses in QLD in 2019, and might continue to wear those losses for many years to come.
By angling for Labor’s defeat, the Greens helped keep Morrison in power. They are quite proud of it. They are trying to reprise the same result this time. They are a Labor-phobic machine. A two-stroke, but noisy and cheap to run. They never stop.
I remember when you pretended to be a concerned independent Cronus a mere 4 weeks ago.
@something: I’m awaiting the second debate with bated breath.
P.S. How is the Adani mine going?
Seems expectations are sky high on here that Albo will smash ScoMo in tomorrow nights debate.
Did anyone else notice that Duttons seat is only on a 4 % ish margin. If a move is on he will go.
Cronus says:
Saturday, May 7, 2022 at 7:37 pm
Itep
“ Sussan Ley:
Right now we are not painting a picture of what we might do in government after the election.
Marvellous.”
An admission of concealment, of deception. The Lying Reactionaries are doing what they always do: lying.
JenAuthor says:
Saturday, May 7, 2022 at 7:38 pm
Stephanie Borys @StephieBorys
“Govt Minister Sussan Ley was asked about how govt would handle RDA if re-elected: “I’m not focused on what happens after the election I am focused on…what happens in the next two weeks”
An honest statement from a Liberal politician. It’s all about being re-elected and not about the realities of the subsequent 3 years or the best interests of the electorate.
GlenO says:
Saturday, May 7, 2022 at 7:35 pm
The Greens are progressive in their own eyes. But in reality they are anti-progressive. They side with the Reactionaries when they can most hurt Labor. This is their gig. They are treachery in green tee shirts.
Luigi Smith:
Saturday, May 7, 2022 at 7:33 pm
They could’ve spoken out but they didn’t, now they could lose up to four seats to the teals. This can happen with delusions.
Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #510 Saturday, May 7th, 2022 – 7:40 pm
I recommend you actually read the post before replying, in future, because you just embarrassed yourself.
You’re basically suggesting that Bob Brown’s move was a bad one, because Labor did poorly and the other progressives did well. Have a think about that – you’re basically doing what Morrison always does – blame everyone else.
Labor shot themselves in the foot in 2019. They lost more than 4% in both metropolitan and non-metropolitan Queensland primary vote. The Greens increased in both. Yet the common assertion is that it was a stupid move by Bob Brown. Perhaps you could explain that?
Let’s have a look more broadly. Labor lost 2.37% in NSW, 4.23% in QLD, 2.65% in WA, 4.29% in Tas, and 3.18% in ACT, with the only bright spots being Victoria (1.28% up), SA (3.83% up, thanks to Centre Alliance losing nearly 17%), and NT (1.88% up when all parties that ran saw a swing to them…).
Greens? Down 0.24% in NSW, down 1.24% in Vic, up 1.49% in Qld, down 0.44% in WA, up 3.4% in SA, down 0.1% in Tas, up 1.76% in ACT, and up 1.06% in NT.
The problem is, people like you think of the Greens as being a subset of Labor, or something. You believe that the Green vote should “by right” be a Labor vote, and the Greens are stealing it, just as Peta Credlin asserted that Teals are stealing seats that should be Liberal seats “by right”.
The fact of the matter is, Labor screwed up in 2019.
Briefly for an engineer you’d make a wonderful people’s commissar.
Bludging @ #516 Saturday, May 7th, 2022 – 7:51 pm
Oh, here I thought you didn’t care what I have to say.
Lars Von Trier says:
Saturday, May 7, 2022 at 7:46 pm
Seems expectations are sky high on here that Albo will smash ScoMo in tomorrow nights debate.
Morrison will campaign against himself, no problem. He has spent the last month doing that. He will continue. He cannot campaign on the past (!) and he has no policies for the future. So he will foam at the mouth. He’s a shouter and a ranter. The more that punters see of him the further they will retreat.
“And what happened to the progressive vote?
I think you’ll find it fell.”
Surely that was clear in my post?
The only potential risk I can see for Labor at this point of the show is the uniformity (or lack thereof) of the national swing.
I give Morrison credit as the sneaky operator he is for an ability to play a seat by seat small target strategy with no common denominators or themes among seats even that neighbour each other.
The last few elections have demonstrated that nation-wide uniform swings are not something the ALP has been able to pull off in any significant way. Alas, I hope I’m not watching a narrative on election night of Antony Green discussing how varied the results are between seats and trying to figure out who will lead a minority gov
GlenO says:
Saturday, May 7, 2022 at 7:53 pm
As I recall, my statement was that I don’t care how ya vote. Knock yourself out. It’s a secret ballot. I’m not here to persuade you of anything. You certainly will not persuade others. Y’all be Green. Can’t be helped. Some of my friends are taken that way too. This does not change the record: the Greens are Labor-phobic/crypto-Reactionary duds.
Lars Von Trier says:
Saturday, May 7, 2022 at 7:53 pm
Briefly for an engineer you’d make a wonderful people’s commissar.
Who said I was an engineer? I’m the reverse. I’m a peasant.
Nice speculation..
Putin’s ‘strong man narrative’ in tatters as cancer concerns surrounding leader grow
VLADIMIR PUTIN’s carefully cultivated “strong man narrative” is collapsing as speculation around the Russian leader’s health continues to grow.
https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1605823/Putin-news-cancer-health-update-russia-leader-ukraine-war-latest
I don’t think Greens are deliberately anti-labor.
I do think they launch “naive” idealistic campaigns that they think will grab support because they assume they are correct and others will vote with the same idealism (hence 2019 Adani crusdae debacle that cost labor a lot of votes).
Unfortunately, most general voters look at what might profit them and vote accordingly.
I agreed with the ideal behind the Adani crusade … but yelling in peoples’ faces that their way of life is killing everybody doesn’t make many friends no matter how noble.
Lars Von Trier says:
Saturday, May 7, 2022 at 7:53 pm
Briefly for an engineer you’d make a wonderful people’s commissar.
__________________
Repetition of mantras is a key component of re-education.
Sceptic says:
Saturday, May 7, 2022 at 8:01 pm
Nice speculation..
Putin’s ‘strong man narrative’ in tatters as cancer concerns surrounding leader grow
VLADIMIR PUTIN’s carefully cultivated “strong man narrative” is collapsing as speculation around the Russian leader’s health continues to grow.
Health concerns? Someone is preparing to depose Putin “for his own good”.
Lars Von Trier:
[‘Saturday, May 7, 2022 at 7:46 pm’]
[‘Seems expectations are sky-high on here that Albo will smash ScoMo in tomorrow night’s debate.’]
Albanese is far better debating than he is with pressers. What say you?
You’ve said previously you were an engineer briefly.
Re greens:
If by some freak of nature the ALP fall just short and are forced to negotiate a minority with the greens it would be wise for Albo to refuse and see what happens. Can you imagine Albo having every decision being subject to greens approval, especially if the senate stays the same as generally unworkable for the ALP.
Surely that would be a nightmare scenario for sussex street- a minority greens supported gov in the lower house and a senate being run by ONP, UAP etc
JenAuthor says:
Saturday, May 7, 2022 at 8:02 pm
I don’t think Greens are deliberately anti-labor.
That’s not what Brown and Bandt acknowledge. They say on the record that they know their campaigns hurt Labor/increase the chances of the Reactionaries. They are cool with that.
Consider also the polemics used by the Greens, day-in/day-out. They are Labor-defaming. This can hardly be accidental. This is their political gig: defiling Labor. They benefit from it.
Personally, I like defiling Labor. It’s good for them.
Mavis I think Albo can be very personable – but he has trouble thinking on his feet.
He’ll be fine because he’ll be very scripted.
Leftiesb – given the average age of the Labor front bench , watch them run to do a deal if in minority, it will be unseemly.
It wont be profiles in courage I can assure you.
Lars Von Trier says:
Saturday, May 7, 2022 at 8:05 pm
You’ve said previously you were an engineer briefly.
Not I. I’m not and never have been, and nor have I ever described myself that way. Perhaps (to his regret though not mine) you confuse me with Socrates. I’m barely educated at all and would have never dreamt of becoming an engineer. I’m not clever enough for that. I’m a member of the peasantry. Not a professional anything.
Any tips on getting an image to appear rather than the URL?
https://imgur.com/gallery/4AaF2lv
Any tips on getting an image to appear rather than the URL?
Repetition of mantras is a key component of re-education.
As the Liberals well know.
Exact quotes and times/dates please Bludging … otherwise it is just hot air.
I am a died-in-the-wool Labor stalwart but I find these constant attacks on the Greens tedious and purposeless.
Many of us are begging for truth in journalism, truth in electioneering etc. but the tribalism against the Greens when we receive 80% of their prefs, or thereabouts, is to me misdirected.
We’re supposed to be fighting tories!
Bludging says:
Saturday, May 7, 2022 at 8:12 pm
I’m a member of the peasantry.
____________
Are you strong on plough?
Please, Bludging, give it a rest.
Labor bollocksed Queensland 2019 by trying to walk both sides of the street at once. The Greens and other environmental movements stupidly shrunk climate change action down into a referendum on blocking one coal mine. That was so very dumb. Them having done that, Shorten needed to have the courage to tell them sod off on Adani – Labor will deal with the mine application in accordance with the law, and won’t block it if it is in accordance with the law, we have our emissions targets and we don’t need to stoop to blocking this mine to meet them. Etc. Take the potential hit in a couple of Greens leaning seats.
The outcome in Queensland was that committed environmentalists didn’t buy Labor’s dissembling and voted Green, and tons of other people didn’t buy it from the other end and voted Coalition. The Greens cannibalised some Labor vote but the overall left fell. It’s primarily Labor’s mistake but only happened because of the Greens being hell bent on wedging Labor to attack seats like, ironically, Grayndler. Faults for everyone!
Far out bludger.
The Greens want to win seats. The people most likely to vote for them are in seats held by Labor, or would be won by Labor if they had a compelling argument. It’s not up to the Greens to get people to vote Labor except perhaps as a not last preference.
If Labor still wants people in these electorates to vote for them then they need to be persuasive.
Just in case you missed it, it’s up to Labor to get people to vote for Labor.
Right now I’m not seeing a great rush to Labor in the outer burbs and there’s a feeble recoiling from the forces of darkness in the inner burbs, but those seats will either sit tight or fall independent.
It should be a complete rout but everything will have to go right on the night for a feeble majority.
Really disappointing mate. I’m glad you’ve got the Greens to kick if it all turns sour.
Lars Von Trier says:
Saturday, May 7, 2022 at 8:05 pm
You’ve said previously you were an engineer briefly.
I’ve claimed to be a pessimist at times. But this is an unpaid, casual office and obtained without diploma. Nay, not an engineer. Not even briefly.
Lars Von Trier:
Saturday, May 7, 2022 at 8:09 pm
[‘He’ll be fine because he’ll be very scripted.’]
Aren’t they all? The only time I was motivated was in ’72.
Arky says:
Saturday, May 7, 2022 at 8:16 pm
Please, Bludging, give it a rest.
Nah. Don’t think so. The Greens set out to contribute towards the defeat of Bill Shorten in 2019. They succeeded. They are doing the same thing this time, though to far less effect. Electoral politics is about winning and losing. The Greens understand that. They angle to prevent Labor from winning. This is their gig.