Boothby and ACT Senate polls

Labor looking good in Boothby, a promising result for ACT Senate independent David Pocock, and a quick look at today’s upper house elections in Tasmania.

Two bits of private polling to have emerged over the past day:

• The Advertiser reports a uComms poll for the SA Forest Products Association finds Labor with a 55-45 lead in the Adelaide seat of Boothby, held by the Liberals on a margin of 1.4% and to be vacated with the retirement of Nicolle Flint. The primary votes are Liberal 32.6%, Labor 31.7%, Greens 10.5% and independent Jo Dyer 5.5% – an element of the remainder would have been undecided and posed a forced-response follow-up, for which the results are not provided. Respondent-allocated preferences among the independents and minor parties flowed over 70% to Labor. The automated phone poll was conducted on Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 810.

• The Canberra Times reports a Redbridge poll of the Australian Capital Territory Senate race for Climate 200 had Labor Senator Katy Gallagher on 27% (down from 39.3% in 2019), Liberal Senator Zed Seselja on 25% (down from 32.4%), independent David Pocock on 21%, the Greens on 11% (down from 17.7%), independent Kim Rubenstein on 6% and the United Australia Party on 6% (up from 2.3%). These figures suggest Seselja would lose his seat to Pocock, although the fall in the Labor vote is enough to suggest that any combination of two out of Gallagher, Seselja and Pocock is possible. The automated phone poll was conducted on April 23 and 24 from a sample of 1064.

The Age/Herald had a report yesterday based on a combination of the last two Resolve Strategic federal polls, allowing journalist David Crowe to analyse New South Wales, Victorian and Queensland breakdowns from plausibly large sample size (though only as high as 509 in the case of Queensland). However, since breakdowns for these states are published with each monthly poll, it’s old news as far as I’m concerned.

In other electoral news, today is the day of Tasmania’s periodic Legislative Council elections, which this year encompass the Hobart seat of Elwick, which seems likely to be retained for Labor by Josh Willie; the north-eastern rural seat of McIntyre, where long-serving independent Tania Rattray might or might not be troubled by independent rival David Downie; and what is technically a by-election in Huon, covering the towns south of Hobart, resulting from the resignation of Labor-turned-independent member Bastian Seidel. The latter would seem to be a competitive race involving Labor, Liberal and three other candidates, and constitutes an electoral test of sorts for the state’s new Premier, Jeremy Rockliff. This site will feature live commentary of some description from 6pm.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

677 comments on “Boothby and ACT Senate polls”

Comments Page 3 of 14
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  1. Rakali, the French 5th Republic has not used PR except for a single election in the 1980s. The have Single Member electorates. Any one can stand for the first round. Only those who exceeded a certain proportion of the vote can stand in the second round. Whoever has the most votes in the second round wins. It is loosely similar to ours, because it can help find a majority or even Condorcet winner because parties can agree to strategically stand down in electorates where they will do worse. It is definitely more like ours than PR. (Essentially the same system was used in the 3rd Republic. They used PR during the 4th Republic.)

    France has more partisan diversity in their National Assembly than we have in our House of Representatives because they have a large parliament. The average number of parties in a national parliament (and the average size of the largest party too) can generally be predicted from the number of electorates and the number of seats per electorate. (The research for this, by the person behind a blog called “Fruits and Votes” – google it, I don’t want to be placed behind a spamwall – is derived from simple voting systems with a single round and no preferences i.e. party list PR and FPTP, but apparently it works just as well for the French and Australian parliaments.

  2. Victoria :

    There have been another nine COVID-19 deaths.

    There are 494 cases in hospital, with 35 in ICU and six requiring ventilation.

    There were 9,365 new cases today, with 60,310 known active cases.

    …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..

  3. As a cricket tragic I like Labor’s signal that they are going to examine the ‘privatisation’ of sport important to the national audience. Sounds a bit like a jab at Murdoch and his attempt to monopolise all sport for his own profit.

  4. Mr Mysterious says:
    Saturday, May 7, 2022 at 9:08 am

    It’s hard to believe this election will be over in two weeks’ time
    —————————————————-
    Not for those of us who live in Bragg (overlaps Sturt) in SA. We are probably going to have a by-election soon thereafter, since Vicki Chapman huffed off after the new state Libs leader was appointed. No great loss.

    I read that we might get Rachel Swift if she loses Boothby (which looks likely). Bragg was very solidly Liberal, even in the last state election. At least she looks reasonably educated, fwiw.

    James Stevens was the other name postulated for Bragg, should he lose Sturt. We can only hope…

  6. ”
    Scepticsays:
    Saturday, May 7, 2022 at 8:19 am
    A bit embarrassing last nigh, Dave Sharma waving to the returning commuters, supported by few placard waving Young Libs…. desperate times
    ”

    I honestly believe he is gorn.
    Lars, who lives in his electorate, can throw more light on it

  7. If, and obviously its a big IF, the libs lose Boothby and Sturt they would have only Barker and Grey in SA….and if the Indi can get up in Grey then the Libs almost cease to exist in this state….and that is a pleasant thought to start my weekend

  9. Sprocket
    “This is getting out of control….

    New polling undertaken for Climate 200 shows independent Sophie Scamps has a real prospect of winning Mackellar from Liberal moderate Jason Falinski in another upset on Sydney’s northern beaches.”

    I am not surprised. If the Teals were no chance, there would not be professionally printed fake Teal-Green signs appearing in multiple electorates overnight. Why risk breaking the law if you have it won?

  10. Best comment I’ve seen today, thanks Cat. ‘Like a dog returning to its vomit, Morrison is campaigning in this election to be mayor of Australia’.

  12. SMH comment…last bit is spot on.

    “ Morrison days he doesn’t believe in government the sane(sic) way Labor does – and it can’t solve people’s problems.

    So why is he even seeking election? It appears he doesn’t stand for any sort of proactive activity. He’s purely reactive. Even his religious discrimination legislation is a reaction to conservatives feeling hurt over losing the SSM debate.

    So he’s in government to stop stuff happening. But while he’s there he’ll tilt the biscuit tray to help his buddies reach it.”

  13. Well the Herald Sun is going off about;

    A distasteful ALP promotional election social media post featuring the late Senator Kimberley Kitching has been slammed.

    and

    Andrews absent from Albo’s Victorian campaign
    Daniel Andrews has been a notable omission from Anthony Albanese’s tour of Victoria, fuelling speculation about the Premier’s “toxic” image.

    I also noted that both the Herald Sun and 7 News were featuring emergency room doctor Steven Parnis. I have no doubt the emergency rooms and hospitals in general are struggling. However I seem to recall that Dr Parnis is standing for the Libs in the State Election. I may be wrong but this was not mentioned by either ‘News’ organization

  14. Hopefully looking at the privatisation of sport will be the thin edge of the wedge for an inquiry into the nefarious Murdochcracy. The Broncos are owned Lock stock and two smoking barrels by the Murdochcracy and alienate a lot of Brisbane sports fans due to this. Murdochracy has been well known for co-opting sport as a means of reaching the hoi polloi and thus being able spread the sort of crud we see on the front page of the appalling Courier this morning.

  15. Laughtong

    I expect nothing less from the Herald sun.

    Interestingly Andrews was given a rockstar reception at a school yesterday. Lol!

  16. I went to watch that Schiff video and saw a UAP ad targeted for WA that tells me that the Chinese have built a military grade airfield near Cape Preston in the Pilbara, where it was suggested they also control a deep water port.

    And it’s Pierre Yang and Mark McGowan’s fault because Yang is apparently acting in China’s interests, so don’t vote for Labor.

  18. What is happening in the Banana Republic of Queensland ?

    The Australian published chatter allegedly from Labor, Coalition and Greens “strategists” about 6 seats in Queensland
    Brisbane
    Leichardt
    Longman
    Flynn
    Ryan
    Griffith:

    Labor strategists allegedly claimed a 6-7 % swing away from the Coalition “across urban Brisbane”, aided by increasing support for the Greens and an absence of Teal candidates in critical urban seats. Brisbane is considered “the most vulnerable”, followed by Ryan, then Leichardt, Longman and Flynn in that order. Leichardt is regional but the PHON-UAP influence there is lower that in Longman and Flynn.

    If this alleged 6-7 % swing holds up, Labor reportedly claims they will win Brisbane and have a 50-50 chance of winning Ryan, Leichardt, Longman and Flynn. However, “Labor strategists” concede that PHON and UAP preferences would prove critical in the LNP holding Longman and Flynn.

    The Greens think they have a very good chance of taking Griffith from Labor this year following months of door knocking in that seat for yet another hyphenated surname candidate, Max Chandler-Mather who doubles as a Greens strategist.

    An LNP strategist reportedly said Brisbane and Longman were seats they were “not giving up on”, but the others {Ryan, Flynn and Leichardt) are not at risk despite “some activity” in Ryan.

    https://todayspaper.theaustralian.com.au/html5/reader/production/default.aspx?pubname=&pubid=d5f86309-c928-4e0e-b526-b143f04dbd26
    —

    If Labor comes out of Queensland with 8 seats {now 6} by holding their own and taking two from the LNP I will be content with that. Very possible by the look of it right now.

  19. There are 2 factors of this election Morrison is disliked and distrusted and more and more, people feel it is ok to vote for an independent as long as they have a chance. THIS in my opinion effects…. Nth Sydney, Wentworth,mackellar, maybe Hughes. Goldstein, Kooyong, Curtin, Nicholas, Hinkler. All which Labor could not win

  20. To SA Bludger and any others interested in transport policy,

    Further to my earlier comments about the Adelaide NS Corridor, and why it was a waste of $20 billion, the question of transport infrastructure policy (including but not limited to funding) has been in the too hard basket in Australia since Rudd. Australia was a world leader in urban transport policy in the Whitlam era. But not now.

    These days we have the highest reported rate of spending in transport infrastructure in the OECD. But our outcomes for commuters, road safety and freight efficiency are mediocre. Its a bit like Liberal failures in defence – the difference between spending and acquiring capability.

    Within Engineers Australia the relevant professional body that deals with transport planning is the Transport Australia Society. In the past few years they have developed a series of discussion papers on transport policy issues. These include marine, air, road safety, road pricing and climate change and transport. They are typically around 10 pages and aimed at an educated but not necessarily engineering audience. I commend them to anyone interested in transport policy.
    https://www.engineersaustralia.org.au/Communities-And-Groups/Technical-Societies/Transport-Australia-Society/Policy-Positions

    One of the most recent is on urban transport systems, and what to do with them. Outside Australia there is quite a revolution going on in new approaches to planning cities. Not here. This is somewhere Labor could pick up big gains in urban amenity for no higher spending, if they have the courage to look outside traditional lobby groups demands. Demographically, the people demanding new freeways everywhere are predominantly not voting Labor anyway. Labor would get more votes delivering protected lanes for bikes and eBikes.
    https://www.engineersaustralia.org.au/sites/default/files/2022-01/Urban-Transport-Systems-TAS-Discussion-Paper-December-2021-revised.pdf

    Have a good day all. I hope BK is well.

  22. A quick scroll down the list of Coalition seats shows that 38 of them have at least been mentioned during the campaign as being targets with at least some notion of credibility for either Labor, The Greens or the Teals or other indies. Thats a lot of seats to try and defend from multiple sources of attack….thats before even thinking about targeting ALP seats. Obviously not all of those will fall, but its a broad and deep attack against their very survival…..Good luck to all candidates seeking to oust the worst government Australia has ever had

  27. Victoria :

    There have been another nine COVID-19 deaths.

    There are 494 cases in hospital, with 35 in ICU and six requiring ventilation.

    There were 9,365 new cases today, with 60,310 known active cases.

    ……………………………………………………………………………………………

    New South Wales :

    NSW has recorded 19 new deaths in the 24 hours to 4pm on May 6.

    There are 1,481 cases in hospital, with 54 in ICU and 19 requiring ventilation.

    There are 142,245 known active cases in the state.

  28. Felix the Cassowary

    Rakali, the French 5th Republic has not used PR except for a single election in the 1980s. The have Single Member electorates.
    ————
    Oh, i didnt know that! How backward of them.

    It makes their decline

  29. Morrison says government can’t solve people’s problems. What about Medicare, NDIS, public housing, fire brigade and lets get rid of police and the army as they don’t solve nothin’. In fact let’s just pay out large amounts of money for pretend things like the 5 billion submarine bill or maybe everybody could have their own little mini submarine hire a copper and hold their own hose.

  31. “You may be upset with us”

    “You may not like me”

    This is the take out

    And the MSM attacks on the Opposition Leader we see, to place him in the same position as internal polling is suggesting the pm and his government is in.

    “He is worse than us” (ignoring government is about policies, Ministers and the Public Service headed by Department Secretaries delivering on those policies as is their function and responsibility)

    So what is their internal polling identifying?

    And, given the assumption of what this polling is identifying, confirmed by the foregoing, delivers BOTH the Coalition AND the ALP equal on primary vote, where do they go to to attract the preferences to actually win seats?

    Who gets from (say) mid 30’s primary vote to 50.01% 2PP?

    From a primary vote of (say) 35%, where does the other 15.01% come from?

    Bearing in mind that the Coalition vote is a Coalition vote, so not National votes which will deliver preferences to the Coalition.

    This is the same equation which will play out for the Teals – and given it is a Liberal v Teals contest, the Teals preferences to the Liberal Party will not factor in the equation.

    It will be the preferences of ALL the other Candidates.

    Federally, if the ALP can snatch a minor gain on the Coalition in primary vote, that will be of enormous benefit to the ALP.

    Off the cuff, you would imagine that Greens preferences (how many Lower House seats are they contesting?) will majority flow to the ALP (80%, maybe more in the current climate? – excuse the pun).

    Noting the Greens are the major party among the minor parties.

    The likes of Hanson and Palmer (and who else?) poll far lower numbers, and will there be a flow of preferences away from the Coalition among that number (and to offset the flow of Greens preferences to the Coalition)?

    Then any other Candidates and where their preferences flow.

    Looking for 50.01% 2PP for a major party

    IF I put that Labor needs a primary vote of 40% to ensure electoral success and the Coalition needs a primary vote above that to ensure electoral success, how accurate is such an assessment?

    And where is the required primary vote for the Coalition?

    Noting that some seats attract over 50% primary vote, so skewing polling.

    How many seats see a Coalition primary vote of over 50%, and where?

    How many seats see an ALP primary vote of over 50%, and where?

    Then you have Katter and the other Independents who just reduce the number of seats being competed in to achieve a parliamentary majority of 76.

    This is an election of preferences, not preference.

    And where the government of the day is restricted to campaigning on the basis of the opening 2 lines to this contribution.

    Ignoring entirely the reasons for the sentiments conveyed in those opening 2 lines, which MSM never report on.

    So is it greater equity across Capital and labour, is it climate and the environment, is it Aged Care (which awaits all of us), is it the sum of the Pandemic response, is it NDIS, is it cost of living, is it Child Care arrangements and costs, is it a Federal ICAC to keep the bastards honest or is it just personality?

    Then the raft of other factors which impact individual households.

    And, in terms of infrastructure spend post Rudd, Rudd encountered the GFC during the early stages of his administration.

    There were numerous projects bought forward from the outlying years – including investment in facilities at schools, to give immediate impetus to economic activity (so not extended lead in times but immediate injection).

    We have all paid a price for the GFC, and continue to do so.

  32. After the disappointment of 2019, I am not counting anything until the “dealings done”, the “Fat Lady sings” and A. Green calls it..
    However, harking back to two weeks out, in 2019 I think there are few differences, which, although they may be straws in the wind, still seem apparent to me..
    *Labor’s attack ads in WA are much sharper, more frequent and brought up to date than was the case in 2019.
    *By the same token, the LNP ads seem flat, dull and repetitive….The weather vane one has been on for a full three weeks without any change. Meanwhile, the Palmer ones seem more damaging to the LNP than to Labor.
    *Labor’s small target approach (for good or bad) seems to have left the LNP very little ground to attack Labor on….The Franking stuff and all that was manna from heaven for the Coalition back in 2019…The LNP seem to have only Albanese to go after at the moment.
    *Morrison was in and out of Perth over the last two days. I doubt whether many voters knew or cared. On his last visit he was corralled by his minders and his interactions with real people were highly stage managed and phoney.
    *And today, in keeping with many metro dailies, the Morrison visit is not on the front page of the West newspaper…..News of him is on page 6 with the by-line….of Morrison “making his pitch for WA”…I wonder if he will, in fact, be over here again?
    None of the above might mean a damned thing in the end, and all those “soft” voters, those “polite” voters who say one thing to polls questions, but then do something else, and those “quiet Australians” might show all of the above is a chimera…….

  34. Implied probability of winning from betfair.com “Type of government formed”
    As at: May-07 (previous week in brackets)
    Liberal majority: 8% (15%)
    Liberal minority: 16% (14%)
    Labor minority: 20% (23%)
    Labor majority: 57% (47%)
    Average number of seats LNP seat lost to ALP: 7.4 (6.0)
    MOE (95% CI): 11.1 (11.0)

    Market steady in the last few days

  35. It looks more and more like this will be an election that continues what started in the last one: the demolition of the Liberals in their heartland urban citadels. The Liberals have taken their strongest and most loyal supporters for granted for the better part of 70 years. They are about to be levied for their indifference – really for their hostility – to the values and interests of the contemporary electorate.

    Their past true believers are now fully mobilising to defeat what has become a voice of the past…a voice that has been stolen from them by crooks, lobbyists, developers, evangelicals, ideologues, reactionaries and careerists. The Liberals represent the interests, values and prejudices of these insiders. They have long since ceased to listen to or represent the voters to whom they’ve always looked for support.

    This has been some time in the making and it’s going to be furthered if not concluded on May 21. The Liberals will lose seats to the mutineers. But the Reactionary figures that have taken control of the Liberals will not easily relinquish their hold. They can be expected to fight to hang on to their privileges, despite the defeats they have already experienced and that will soon be amplified.

    Nor will their counterweights de-mobilise. The contest for the centre-right will doubtless become all the more intense, embittered, protracted and pervasive. This has to happen. The most successful college in Australian national politics cannot remain the captive of Reactionaries forever. Consider the last Parliament: it barely met. It achieved almost nothing at all of relevance to the issues facing the country. This is a consequence of the dysfunction inside the Liberals – of the dominance of the Reactionaries, the Pentecostals and their complicity with the flotsam in the Nationals. This cannot continue. Nor will it.

  36. If front yard corflutes and posters in shop windows are any guide*, Kylea Tink is home and hosed in North Sydney. There are a few Labor ones around and a few Liberal, a couple of Greens, one or two TNL (The New Liberals – a bit like the Australian Democrats), but Ms Tink seems to have more than the others combined. It will be interesting to see how things work out.

    Meanwhile, a UAP ad has infested the calculator app on my iPad.

    * probably no more a guide than the size of rallies or demonstrations

  39. Does anyone else think that Vicki Campion has a regular column in the Daily Telegraph as part of some sort of settlement agreement between News Corp and herself?

  41. Wat Tyler

    “ And I will point out, for the unnecessary sake of balance, that there are examples of the Right being just as cocky.”

    My sense is that the feeling on the left is one of hopeful optimism whereas on the right, the conservatives simply believe it is their god-given right to rule and any other concept is therefore ridiculous.

  42. BeaglieBoy says:
    Saturday, May 7, 2022 at 9:57 am

    A quick scroll down the list of Coalition seats shows that 38 of them have at least been mentioned during the campaign as being targets with at least some notion of credibility for either Labor, The Greens or the Teals or other indies.

    That is, the Lying Reactionaries have reasons to fear they may lose half their seats. That would be a reasonable start. They do not deserve to hold any seats whatsoever, so debased, so dissolute have they become.

  43. Socrates:
    Yes I agree with your transport thoughts for Adelaide. Trams for The Parade, Unley Road and Prospect road would be fantastic, and popular. I do think that road projects also are needed. Adelaide is no longer the country town of the 1970s lampooned by those Melbounites and Sydneysiders, its a growing city in its own right.
    When I first came to Adelaide and landed at Adelaide airport in the late 60s, and walked across the tarmac to a tin shed, Adelaide was a essentially a big town. Later, I had a friend who had not been to Adelaide in nearly 25 years, he and his wife were amazed at the transformation of the city and its skyline. They thought the developments of the North Terrace precinct were world class. A previous comment they made when we went to windy point restaraunt was that Adelaide only looked like a city at night, with all the lights etc. Now they have changed that view. I am proud of the achievements of the various ALP state governments since 2002 and hope Mali can continue to make Adelaide an international city.
    So in conclusion I thinks all developments that aid the growth of Adelaide, while maintaining its beauty, livability and convenience have my wholehearted support.

    Edit:….my only concern for trams on The Parade would be that maybe the road is too narrow?…..cant see them wanting or even being able to relocate all those shops and businesses

  44. The alp need 7 seats – I would say they are on track to win 10-15 at this stage – if the lnp lose the 5 teals then that’s 15-20 seat loss.

    80 alp
    60 lnp
    11 others.

  45. Sandman

    “ If Labor comes out of Queensland with 8 seats {now 6} by holding their own and taking two from the LNP I will be content with that. Very possible by the look of it right now.”

    Me too, that’s my definition of success for QLD. Anything else would just be a case of “my dreams coming true, all fingers and toes crossed”.

  46. Here in Reid we have a big Indian population in the southern part of the electorate so Albo’s attendance at the dinner last night will be meaningful to a chunk of voters in the Lidcombe end.

  47. The most interesting aspects about this Federal Election is that it seems to be two Elections happening at the same time.

    On the one hand we have regular polls that show Labor steady on 53-54% TPP which have been consistent for months. This would indicate that the voters have made up their mind and are not for turning. This analysis gells with my observation and interactions with people. The Election is rarely spoken about, people don’t seem particularly engaged with the various announcements and there seems to be a general feeling of “Are we there yet?”

    On the other hand, we have a frenzied MSM campaign focussed on sound and fury, but not signifying much of substance. Alleged gaffes, gotcha moments and contrived stunts are apparently the fuel for a thousand anti-Labor stories. Dodgy seat polling is given far more credence than appropriate and even dodgier journos pontificate that it’s not over yet because “last time.” and no one wants a hung Parliament.

    The MSM like to run Fantasy Football competitions which run parallel with the actual game. But, they are just a marketing contrivance to sell media space and garner eyeballs. At the end of the day, this seems to be the only motivation for the MSM Election coverage. Make it a contest by pretending it is one.

    I’ll go out on a limb and say Labor were in front, are still in front and will likely stay in front to win the Election outright.

  48. Laughtong

    Parnis is an emergency room doctor and he has been very vocal about hospitals being under enormous pressure during the pandemic.

  49. Mike Carlton…

    Exciting stuff. The lazy Liberals have treated Mackellar with contempt for decades. Sophie is a brilliant candidate, exactly the sort of MP the electorate and the nation need in Canberra. I reckon she’ll stage an historic upset.

  50. PRGuy
    @PRGuy17
    ·
    21h
    PARTISAN MEDIA outlets are in damage control after Anthony Albanese “popped the pus-bloated underbelly” of broken media, which is campaigning against him with cult-like zeal. It comes as Aussies say they’ve “had a gutful of Murdoch” interfering with Australian politics. #auspol

    A good account of the current media

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