Two bits of private polling to have emerged over the past day:
• The Advertiser reports a uComms poll for the SA Forest Products Association finds Labor with a 55-45 lead in the Adelaide seat of Boothby, held by the Liberals on a margin of 1.4% and to be vacated with the retirement of Nicolle Flint. The primary votes are Liberal 32.6%, Labor 31.7%, Greens 10.5% and independent Jo Dyer 5.5% – an element of the remainder would have been undecided and posed a forced-response follow-up, for which the results are not provided. Respondent-allocated preferences among the independents and minor parties flowed over 70% to Labor. The automated phone poll was conducted on Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 810.
• The Canberra Times reports a Redbridge poll of the Australian Capital Territory Senate race for Climate 200 had Labor Senator Katy Gallagher on 27% (down from 39.3% in 2019), Liberal Senator Zed Seselja on 25% (down from 32.4%), independent David Pocock on 21%, the Greens on 11% (down from 17.7%), independent Kim Rubenstein on 6% and the United Australia Party on 6% (up from 2.3%). These figures suggest Seselja would lose his seat to Pocock, although the fall in the Labor vote is enough to suggest that any combination of two out of Gallagher, Seselja and Pocock is possible. The automated phone poll was conducted on April 23 and 24 from a sample of 1064.
The Age/Herald had a report yesterday based on a combination of the last two Resolve Strategic federal polls, allowing journalist David Crowe to analyse New South Wales, Victorian and Queensland breakdowns from plausibly large sample size (though only as high as 509 in the case of Queensland). However, since breakdowns for these states are published with each monthly poll, it’s old news as far as I’m concerned.
In other electoral news, today is the day of Tasmania’s periodic Legislative Council elections, which this year encompass the Hobart seat of Elwick, which seems likely to be retained for Labor by Josh Willie; the north-eastern rural seat of McIntyre, where long-serving independent Tania Rattray might or might not be troubled by independent rival David Downie; and what is technically a by-election in Huon, covering the towns south of Hobart, resulting from the resignation of Labor-turned-independent member Bastian Seidel. The latter would seem to be a competitive race involving Labor, Liberal and three other candidates, and constitutes an electoral test of sorts for the state’s new Premier, Jeremy Rockliff. This site will feature live commentary of some description from 6pm.
Greensborough Growler
I don’t know about you, but I see very little video advertising (be it on free to air TV or social media, because I don’t really use either). For me it feels like three elections going on, because that advertising blitz is like the 9/10 of the campaign iceberg.
JenAuthor
Murdoch signalling an increase in subscription rates to KAYO plays neatly into the Albanese narrative.
Murdoch (and Stokes and Costello and the USA proprietors of 10) have vested interest in this government – it protects and increases their market share (and revenue) by forcing media coverage behind streaming paywalls.
Then increasing the cost of access which is the continuing trend (including that you can not family share a subscription).
So the old “loss leaders” to gain market recognition then up the cost (successively) when product saturation reaches a certain level
The public?
Compromised and left behind.
Vote Liberal, because we tell you so.
It is money out of your pocket into ours.
The only accountability being a fall in subscribers (and Share price)
Labor does not need 40% of the vote to win but the liberals probably do.In a close seat the liberals need in excess of 45% and if they did get 40% they would certainly lose in that seat. Apart from uap and onp few preferences will favour the liberals and even their votes will be reduced in terms of both volume and friendliness.
GG, agree with those thoughts.
The other huge story is the existential threat to the Liberal Party – with the teal revolt against the Morrison bastardry. NSW is the epicentre, but it may well spill over.
Regarding the Morrison Family, I notice he has not producd a copy of himself, which is a good thing !.
Its the trend of apathy and its impact on the base of major parties that concerns me, esp in us/uk/aus
On the right side, cant deny a steady driving out of moderate centrist people and the increasing dominance of righter and righter members.
In Aus, whether people here like it or not, there is demand for moderate liberal people and policy but nowhere to vote for it. Thus the teal appeal in affluent metro seats makes sense. The longer term impact of this is scary though… when the coalition get back in (and they will because most voters throw out govts and arent immersed in ideological detail), its scary.
On the left, well the similar rise of Corbyn and AOC bases is frankly not much less unappealling to the mainstream. Interestingly this hasnt subsumed the ALP here, but shows in its 1st pref decline to a 35% mark now? My perception of its base is a kind of coalition between the trade union and public servant spheres… which puts off many but to my mind at least stops it jumping off a corbynista cliff?
The guardian article on Albo is interesting, portraying him as a fundamentally decent bloke with no big ego. If aussies accept that perception of him, he’ll win comfortably… for all his longstanding presence, i dont get the sense punters know him. Thus are susceptible to campaign vagaries in terms of their perception. But he seems to be holding up his end ok, and given ScoMo distaste that should do the job in 2 weeks
I still think there is a ‘click’ space where aussies are comf enough to switch in droves, leading to an unexpected landslide like 1996. Am not feeling that yet, but you just never know
BeaglieBoy says:
Saturday, May 7, 2022 at 10:11 am
……
Edit:….my only concern for trams on The Parade would be that maybe the road is too narrow?…..cant see them wanting or even being able to relocate all those shops and businesses
————————————————————-
It works out ok on Jetty Road in Glenelg, which seems to be about as wide as the Parade. The nature strip and trees in the middle of the road would have to go though.
“Marcos’s son Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos will almost
assuredly become the new president of the Philippines on Monday. Filipinos are most forgiving”
From what I’ve read it’s not so much that as short memories. Marcos was deposed over 30 years ago, so there’s a younger generation who wasn’t there and parts of the older generation who were big fans. Meanwhile he’s allied with Duterte’s daughter (his VP) and they use their money to give out free food to the poor at voting time.
I am honestly kind of surprised the Liberals haven’t tried that one yet.
”
pukkasays:
Saturday, May 7, 2022 at 8:34 am
ABC Saturday Extra: 31% of Indians not likely to vote Lib because of SM pandemic halt on Indian travel and curry photos make them less likely to vote but more favorable view on LNP economic management.
”
I am surprised and disappointed that only 31% of Indian heritage are not likely to vote Libs because only people of Indian heritage were treated like 3rd class citizens (not even second class citizens) during Delta wave of May 2022 preventing Australian citizens and PRs of Indian heritage coming from India threatening them punishment and jail terms. People died in India because of that.
“ I don’t know about you, but I see very little video advertising (be it on free to air TV or social media, because I don’t really use either).”
Neither do I. I’ve not seen a single ad the whole campaign. Bliss!
Morning all. OK, most of the universe gets moving earlier than me!
So, Albo’s so-called ‘gaffe’ on NDIS has disappeared from the media maelstrom. Maybe the pettiness of the journos was actually helping Labor!
Clive’s advertising getting rare in major newspapers – has he decided to cut his losses? Not exactly a vote of confidence in Morrison.
Re forecasting the medium term from particular election wins (e.g. ‘Libs would struggle for ages after 2007’)…
There’s a movie called ‘The Special Relationship’ – it’s really about Tony Blair getting elected, how he related to Clinton and then Bush.
In one conversation, the Clinton character, assuming Gore would win 2000 and Blair 2002, speculates on the probability of long-term centre/left govts.
We know how that went.
At least one American has said ‘When Democrats lose, they get sad; when Republicans lose, they get mad.’
The Right will do almost anything to gain and retain power.
The Left needs to learn to not gift the Right so often (big recent examples include Rudd/Gillard wars.)
Ven, do you feel there is a little hostility to Albo for imposing a candidate in Parramatta and doing over some very capable candidates in the Indian community?
But what One Nation doesn’t seem to have – at least in comparison to the UAP – is much money. A One Nation candidate, speaking on condition of anonymity, says her campaign is self-funded. Corflutes for supporters’ front yards costs her $8 each.
Meanwhile Palmer’s UAP has bought every available billboard space, and has signs on dusty dirt roads in the middle of nowhere. In bigger towns and tiny towns, Guardian Australia spoke to more than a dozen disaffected voters. Most say they are leaning towards the UAP.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/may/07/how-clive-palmers-deep-pockets-are-building-a-yellow-slick-road-straight-through-one-nations-heartland
Arky @ #157 Saturday, May 7th, 2022 – 10:34 am
It’s a two step process. The Libs are still only part way through step 1, which is to make people poor.
sprocket,
The Conservatives splitting and returning a few years later rebranded and refreshed has happened a couple of times during our history. At Federation there was the Free Traders and the Protectionists that joined together in the early 1900s. There was the Menzies split in 1941 and then the subsequent founding of the Liberal Party with a strong base of middle class and small business as it’s constituency. You might also say the Howard carved out a new constituency amongst the tradie cohort that has kept the Libs competitive for a long time.
So a split is likely and the different factions will spend a lot of time name calling and proclaiming they are the true Liberal. Eventually, they will get tired of not having influence in Government and non access to the White Cars and perks of office and some unifying figure will emerge to stitch up the gaping wounds and proclaim a “New Beginning”.
Ur spot on expat follower in your post.
Current system is unsustainable and a considerable number of people – probs 40% don’t see the 2 major parties representing them.
Reform in the voting system is a precondition for addressing this democratic deficit.
…and they use their money to give out free food to the poor at voting time.
I am honestly kind of surprised the Liberals haven’t tried that one yet
Well the campaign has two more weeks to run.
At any rate, the billions in pork-barrelling* in targeted seats is pretty much equivalent.
* who keeps pork in a barrel? Probably dates from a time before fridges
Murphy’s piece in the Guardian resonates for me. Her underlying point seems to be that Albanese is not a child of privilege, and is not beholden to those that are. Unstated (but self-evident), is that (like me) Morrison and his ilk are – and that that is going to be their undoing.
This is hilarious!
https://twitter.com/larryandpaul/status/1522244451330142211?s=21&t=88hGKo48g9KrwiByvBMDmw
Steve777 @ #166 Saturday, May 7th, 2022 – 10:46 am
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pork_barrel#History_and_etymology
Steve777
At any rate, the billions in pork-barrelling* in targeted seats is pretty much equivalent.
_____________________________________-
You can eat free food; you can’t eat free promises!
Thanks for those who responded to my three questions about a) Coal, b) Boats and c) Women.
I appreciate your candour and it was not asked to make any point except that these are difficult issues for the ALP. Many, but not all, here support/vote for/work for the ALP and yet everyone gave me their personal opinion on these issues, not the coherent party line.
Yet that was, I guess, my point. It is not clear to the Australian people where Labor sits on these issues, because there is so much personal opinion within the party and clarity might lose vital votes. I am not saying that is a bad or disingenuous thing, but it is a practical problem. Aligning the views on Coal in Maribynong and Flynn is not easy… or even possible.
We have dealt with Borders and boats. I came from a hard left position on asylum seekers 20 years ago to a begrudging acceptance of the Coalition policy. This was made more clear when I met two families from Iran, sharing meals with both, at various times. It was clear that these young professionals from Iran, with toddlers had paid a stack of cash, travelled through several countries and both families, at different times, were on boats scuttled and eventually re-settled in Australia. The four adults in these families each wanted to work here and make decent money. Not one of them could swim (and had never actually seen a beach before the trip) and their children were lucky to survive the ordeal. They were prepared to do this to get ahead.
Sure, I can’t say how representative they were (I do know that 70% of the asylum seekers in the RGR era were from Iran, Afghanistan and Sri Lanka) and I had already realised that this was a unique case of asylum seeking… there was a pathway to Australia and that was being exploited at the risk of people dying at sea. Yes, I hate the policy but it stops people trying this route.
The woman issue is absurd. Ten years ago, no one in the room had trouble defining a woman. It is ridiculous that we even have to have this conversation. GI is not (and cannot) be undergirded by any science at all. It remains an internally inconsistent theory that was roundly rejected by psychologists in the 60s and with good reason: it is dangerous nonsense. It is a shame the ALP won’t stand up for women on this issue in a consistent manner.
”
Lars Von Triersays:
Saturday, May 7, 2022 at 10:41 am
Ven, do you feel there is a little hostility to Albo for imposing a candidate in Parramatta and doing over some very capable candidates in the Indian community?
”
Yes and No. Yes Because because there could be some capable candidates and No because they may not attract wide spectrum of votes.
You did not answer my query whether Dave Sharma is gorn in Wentworth?
Morrison sounds like he is getting desperate, dont think undecided voters will be swayed by these personal attacks, Morrison quote from AFR;
“Small target means a small leader, a small leader is a weak leader…”
Makes me think of Lathams handshake with Howard, just getting too personal, it turns people away.
Was there a Dawn Patrol by BK this morning? I can’t seem to find it.
Introduce proportional representation, the following may happen:
– The “Liberals” split into a liberal and a right wing party
– The nationals, their tiny support base exposed, join the right wing party
– Some split from Labor on the left to join the Greens
– Far Right and Far left parties emerge which can get members elected
– Nearly all future Governments are coalitions, including a Merkel-style centrist liberal-social democrat coalition.
Percentage of vote:
– Labor ~ 25%
– Green ~ 15%
– Right ~ 20%
– liberal ~ 20%
– far right/left ~ 5% each
– floaters ~ 10% up for grabs
Biggest losers: the Nationals and party bosses of Liberal and Labor.
Anyway, just a thought experiment, ain’t going to happen.
Re the GFC.
The banking industry and the payments system they accommodate are essential to a functioning global economy and a functioning global society.
Then you get to the importance of banks as lenders, to households and to businesses.
Just as indicative to give some idea.
The GFC threatened the banking industry – and the World as we know it.
Global Capital Markets were fractured.
What is the money chain behind purchasing a pair of shoes thru a retailer?
The GFC was serious, most serious as the fall out confirms (noting Australians did not suffer as did the citizens of other Nations, citizens who returned their house keys to their lenders, lenders which collapsed – including falling into government hands).
This current set of circumstances revolves around circumstances which impact the economy in a cyclical pattern.
So inflation (driven by Oil prices), supply line disruptions courtesy of the Pandemic (which persists), and global conflict and the impact on materials and supplies (and when has there not been global conflict?).
A very brief summary is that the current disruptions will be of a transitory nature (how long being the question).
The GFC shook the very foundations of society, of industry and of commerce
The current circumstances are a factor of market forces
No comparison between the 2.
The concern currently stems from the Oil price (1974, anyone?) and Stock Market gyrations, inflation and a fear that Central Banks raising interest rates to moderate inflationary discretionary consumer spending in the current climate will over reach and lead to a recession.
And, just as an aside, it is my opinion that the failure of the government of the day to accept that the introduction of a GST in the year 2000 would lead to a recession is the reason for the problems of the Nation today.
The responses to avoid that recession have carried a very, very large price for Australians and Australia.
National graphs support this summary analysis.
And, Mick, that is what I am driving at.
Australia did not take its medicine consequent upon ideological government policy
BK said something about having a monster this morning. One can only assume it is Viagra related and he will attend to the Dawn Patrol once he has dealt with that…
P1, BK is working on a ‘monster’ he says, possibly not viagra related, possibly a digestive effort?
Will SfM’s constant focus group efforts and polling get him across the line? Will the efforts of the Murdochracy in ignoring all the ‘shit’ he puts out there as a result continue to go un-noticed and just let him keep peppering the electorate with ‘one-out’ forays into each new/old trick or dead-cat effort like trans kids, unprepared/inadequate Albo, abortion, you name it?
If with polling as close as it was in 2019 his ‘miraculous abilities’ just got him over the line, what happens under the wider polling margins we have now, especially as we all (except my MIL) know he’s full of shit?
Dog’s Brunch says:
Saturday, May 7, 2022 at 11:03 am
P1, BK is working on a ‘monster’ he says
_______________________________
We haven’t heard from him since then. I wonder if the internet is down again where he lives.
Don’t know re Sharma Ven. The teal independents are flavour of the month – but do they get more than say 30% primary and win seats ? Not sure.
Still think Albo will win though – Only needs 5 seats to get to 74 (and a majority with Wilkie and Bandt). Still 2 weeks to go though.
Mrmoney @ #149 Saturday, May 7th, 2022 – 8:24 am
One problem I see with the media is that they focus too much on the politics and not enough on the policy detail.
There are too many political reporters and not enough specialising in a particular policy area where they would be able too analyse the policy and related issues.
Steve777 says:
Saturday, May 7, 2022 at 11:02 am
Introduce proportional representation, the following may happen:
…..
Biggest losers: the Nationals and party bosses of Liberal and Labor.
Anyway, just a thought experiment, ain’t going to happen.
________________________
As Nelson Mandela said : something is impossible until it happens! Be Bold Steve777 !
Rewi @ #150 Saturday, May 7th, 2022 – 8:25 am
The only advertising I see is here when someone links one.
Even then I don’t usually watch it. 😆
Steve777
Biggest losers: the Nationals and party bosses of Liberal and Labor.
Anyway, just a thought experiment, ain’t going to happen.
———-
While it’s unlikely to happen at present, it did happen in NZ.
It could happen if support for the two party system declines further and/or a minor party makes it a condition in return for supporting a major party to form a government.
‘Percentage of vote:
– Labor ~ 25%
– Green ~ 15%
– Right ~ 20%
– liberal ~ 20%
– far right/left ~ 5% each
– floaters ~ 10% up for grabs’
If you look at what has been happening overseas, I think that overstates the Labor and liberal vote and understates the far right.
hla @ #156 Saturday, May 7th, 2022 – 8:34 am
How much through traffic does the Parade get?
The only time I would ever use the Parade was to go to Norwood Oval.
Magil and Kensington Rds were always much better options when going to the eastern suburbs.
Lars at 10.45am
Decades ago, I took a subject ‘Economics and Politics’ in my economics degree. It was taught by a Dutch lecturer, who made clear his view that single-member electorates (along with first past the past, which we obviously don’t use) are undemocratic.
On, the other hand, Australia’s sprawling geography suggests some component of local representation needs to be guaranteed.
I favour some version of Mixed Member Proportional. Being a federation, each jurisdiction in Australia would become an electorate, with local constituencies plus ‘party’ members. (To qualify as a ‘party’ you must at least get either 5% of the jurisdiction vote or win 1 local seat.)
A case study might be Qld’s federal representation. Let’s not redraw electoral boundaries and simply double the number of MHRs.
My guesstimate for the 2019 election would be 29 LNP* (43.7% vote, 23 local winners, topped up by 6 ‘party’ members); 18 ALP (26.68, 6 local, 12 ‘party’); 6 Green (10.32, all ‘party’); 5 PHON (8.86, all ‘party’); 2 Katter (2.47, 1 local, 1 ‘party’).
A rather more moderate ‘win’ for right-of-centre parties in Qld, compared to our current single member system.
Maybe someone can do better calculations and take in the remaining jurisdictions to speculate on what sort of House MMP would have given us in 2019.
* NZ results suggest that major parties get slightly more seats than their vote % warrants – NZ Labour polled 50.01% but won 65 of 120 seats. I suspect this is due to minor parties missing the 5% threshold.
When watching reports on the recent presidential elections in France, i heard that both the ABC and SBS, always and without exception, referred to La Pen as from the “extreme right”.
While obviously she is of the popularist right wing, I was wondering how much more right wing were her policies than the policies of the Tory Parties in the UK and Australia?
And how would they describe an even more right wing/fascist party?
Maybe the tram doesnt need to go all the way up The Parade.stopping at Norwood Oval…the cars parked on the side of the road would also have to go I think to make room should the tram go all the way to Portrush Road..
Josh is getting desperate – I thought it was a joke but his signs actually say “please let me keep my job”.
I hope all the teal candidates get up and the lnp lose another 10-15 seats (even better if they had less seats than the national party).
BeaglieBoy @ #189 Saturday, May 7th, 2022 – 9:23 am
Why no parking?
You can park along Jetty Rd, no problems and the Parade is wider than Jetty Rd.
Eminently sensible snappy Tom.
You would think given Labor’s win rate in elections , trading very infrequent wins for a much more regular participation in multi party governments under mmp would be in its interests too!
I don’t get Morrison’s rationale of throwing all this money at alcohol producers. While I not most people do drink (I don’t but I am no wowser – it just makes me physically ill so I avoid) … but these ‘grants’ he’s proposing do little to better people lives other than make some feel a bit more positive when under the influence and nothing for children, for example.
All the money he’s so far projecting into distilleries is niche targeted and it really doesn’t make sense to me unless he’s done some sort of deal with Club Australia or something? Even then, it is still very niche.
We don’t need to lose our Unions in order to understand what the lack of organised labour means for the workers of Australia. We just need a bit of thinking and some knowledge.
“It’s our 95th birthday today!
Ninety-five years ago, unionised workers from every state and industry came together to create a single voice for working people: the Australian Council of Trade Unions.
Since we formed, working people in unions have won some of the most fundamental workplace struggles in Australia’s history: annual leave, work safety laws, Medicare, superannuation, paid parental leave, Jobkeeper and more.
United, the entire union movement is campaigning for better job security, pay and conditions, rights at work, healthier and safer workplaces, and a fairer and more equal society.
We’ve come a long way in 95 years, but our role in pushing for progressive reform in Australia is just as important as ever.”
Vote wisely……
Woke-pc-thug at 11.26am
A Nationals-led (with MicMac reinstalled as Leader) Opposition is, with apologies to Cheech & Chong, my unrealistic ‘Nice Dream’ for this election.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nice_Dreams
Here we go again,
Add to that the splitting off of the payments system from lending. It is a work in progress, but it puts lenders in a weaker position to demand support, as transactions can continue without them.
You would think that would make them more risk averse. The financial markets may be about to test that hypothesis.
Lars Von Trier @ #180 Saturday, May 7th, 2022 – 11:06 am
Scotty’s either going to go completely unhinged over the coming fortnight or he’s going to walk on water.
Lars at 11.29am
Two reasons MMP will struggle to get up here: 1) ’eminently sensible’ (can’t have that!) 2) reduction in frequency of LNP-led govts (also, can’t have that!)
One jurisdiction that should have MMP is Queensland with its single chamber Parliament.
Look how its composition swung so extremely between Can do’s win and Can do’s loss! The number of MPs from both major parties were extremely out of proportion with their electoral support.