Boothby and ACT Senate polls

Labor looking good in Boothby, a promising result for ACT Senate independent David Pocock, and a quick look at today’s upper house elections in Tasmania.

Two bits of private polling to have emerged over the past day:

The Advertiser reports a uComms poll for the SA Forest Products Association finds Labor with a 55-45 lead in the Adelaide seat of Boothby, held by the Liberals on a margin of 1.4% and to be vacated with the retirement of Nicolle Flint. The primary votes are Liberal 32.6%, Labor 31.7%, Greens 10.5% and independent Jo Dyer 5.5% – an element of the remainder would have been undecided and posed a forced-response follow-up, for which the results are not provided. Respondent-allocated preferences among the independents and minor parties flowed over 70% to Labor. The automated phone poll was conducted on Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 810.

• The Canberra Times reports a Redbridge poll of the Australian Capital Territory Senate race for Climate 200 had Labor Senator Katy Gallagher on 27% (down from 39.3% in 2019), Liberal Senator Zed Seselja on 25% (down from 32.4%), independent David Pocock on 21%, the Greens on 11% (down from 17.7%), independent Kim Rubenstein on 6% and the United Australia Party on 6% (up from 2.3%). These figures suggest Seselja would lose his seat to Pocock, although the fall in the Labor vote is enough to suggest that any combination of two out of Gallagher, Seselja and Pocock is possible. The automated phone poll was conducted on April 23 and 24 from a sample of 1064.

The Age/Herald had a report yesterday based on a combination of the last two Resolve Strategic federal polls, allowing journalist David Crowe to analyse New South Wales, Victorian and Queensland breakdowns from plausibly large sample size (though only as high as 509 in the case of Queensland). However, since breakdowns for these states are published with each monthly poll, it’s old news as far as I’m concerned.

In other electoral news, today is the day of Tasmania’s periodic Legislative Council elections, which this year encompass the Hobart seat of Elwick, which seems likely to be retained for Labor by Josh Willie; the north-eastern rural seat of McIntyre, where long-serving independent Tania Rattray might or might not be troubled by independent rival David Downie; and what is technically a by-election in Huon, covering the towns south of Hobart, resulting from the resignation of Labor-turned-independent member Bastian Seidel. The latter would seem to be a competitive race involving Labor, Liberal and three other candidates, and constitutes an electoral test of sorts for the state’s new Premier, Jeremy Rockliff. This site will feature live commentary of some description from 6pm.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

677 comments on “Boothby and ACT Senate polls”

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  1. Perhaps snappy Tom – we (as in Australia) actually have a first rate history of electoral firsts.

    Maybe the irony here is we have just lagged NZ on electoral reform by a couple of decades…

  2. Apart from the usual parlor political pundits of PB and other media sheltered workshops, I sense no popular demand for structural electoral reform.

  3. State election figures put Labor slightly ahead in Sturt. That being so, you would expect a more frenetic campaign by both major parties. It’s pretty somnolent at the moment, perhaps capturing the vibe of the Liberal sitting member, James Stevens, who infamously was asleep in his office when he should have been voting for Scotty’s religious rights bill.

    Labor’s pretty well in dreamland too, and hasn’t touched the issue. It has, however, run a better than usual postal vote campaign (though it’s not much help to me as the AEC left a return mail envelope out of the postal vote kit which arrived last Friday).

  4. My guesstimate for an MMP 2019 House result from NSW…
    Lib 36
    Nat 11
    Lab 37
    Grn 9
    Ind 1

    Produces a 1 seat improvement for the L/NP compared to actual, whereas Qld MMP a significant improvement for Labor.

    MMP would probably produce strong, but not overwhelming, results for L/NP in Qld & WA, similar for Labor in Vic, less strong for Labor in Tas and competitive in NSW.

    It would certainly see more Greens in the House*. Would it have produced a Labor/Greens ‘alliance’ govt?

    *Another reason neither major is likely to support MMP.

  5. Morrison has been having a go at Albo because he thinks he is using COVID aftermath to explain campaign stuff ups.

    He could be right. As we all know Morrison is a supurb athlete following all those laps he swims in the North Sydney pool that had no water in it.

  6. I am so happy all youse Poll Bludgers are starting to talk like North Queenslanders – hey.

    25th Wedding Anniversary for Mrs Upnorth and I. I may be a little quiet today. Maintain the Rage cobbers (PS No Long Service Leave for me).

    “C@tmomma says:
    Saturday, May 7, 2022 at 7:30 am

    Evan @ #17 Saturday, May 7th, 2022 – 7:23 am

    Interesting Casey is mentioned as a seat where the Liberals are in trouble, neither Morrison or Albo have been there during the campaign so far

    Didn’t I tell youse? Retiring popular member.

  7. Greensborough Growler says:
    Saturday, May 7, 2022 at 11:43 am

    Apart from the usual parlor political pundits of PB and other media sheltered workshops, I sense no popular demand for structural electoral reform.
    中华人民共和国
    Abolish the Senate (Unrepresentative Swill) and all State Upper Houses, along the slew of Tin Pot Local Governments outside Queensland. Australia has far too many politicians. Won’t be done but should be done.

  8. I think snappy tom – both major parties think why would we do mmp when we can win a majority under the present system?

    At some point if the primaries continue to decline – the present system makes it impossible to win majority – that’s when mmp or something similar becomes inevitable.

    Its not impossible to see a situation where say the Greens holding the BOP might make it a condition of confidence and supply to a minority labor govt?

  9. “I sense no popular demand for structural electoral reform.”

    There is none, it’s not on anyone’s radar. In my opinion, it would be a better system than we have now. However, the Labor, Liberal and National Parties have a vested interest in the status quo and would bitterly oppose it.

  10. Another nail in Morrison’s coffin. He and loser Frydenburg are hammering the “superior economic managers” theme. Although there is little about this in the billionaires media, John Hewsen and Alan Austin for example and other independent sources are pointing out that this is bullshit. Swinging voters know it is bullshit too.

    The LNP is confrinting the mother of all wipeouts.

  11. Ven says:
    Saturday, May 7, 2022 at 9:37 am

    Scepticsays:
    Saturday, May 7, 2022 at 8:19 am
    A bit embarrassing last nigh, Dave Sharma waving to the returning commuters, supported by few placard waving Young Libs…. desperate times

    I honestly believe he is gorn.
    Lars, who lives in his electorate, can throw more light on iT

    He’s definitely gone… can you imagine standing on the side of road like a broken down fruit vendor while your City Mates drive past in their Bentley saying “ anyone but a loser “, even his old mate Malcolm won’t offer full / any support

    Edit
    David seems to lack dignity

  12. Greensborough Growler

    “Apart from the usual parlor political pundits of PB and other media sheltered workshops, I sense no popular demand for structural electoral reform.”

    When has there ever been a popular demand for structural taxation reform? Or structural reform of the public service? Or structural reform of the banking sector?

    I could go on and on.

    And how is it that when there is popular demand for structural reform of our constitution (be it the majority support for a republic in some form, or an Indigenous Voice), it’s ignored or delayed on the never-never?

    The point is that structural reform is only ever pursued by those with decision making power over the nature of the structure itself, and in the Australian representative government system that’s simply not in the people’s gift to influence in the face of elite resistance.

  13. Wow Lars you must be scraping the bottom of the jar to throw up discontent about the ALbo captain’s pick in Parramatta again. I think it was a dumb idea too but if that’s all you have to smear Albo with 2 weeks from the election you really are clutching at straws mate. Try again. And don’t start with more gaffe gate stuff, that is just petty.

  14. As the sugar-hit COVID stimulus splurge wears off, the Reserve Bank and Treasury are both forecasting 2023 will be the worst non-COVID calendar year for growth since 2009 and, at 2 per cent, only a fraction better than the 1.9 per cent recorded that year and back in 2001.

    In its latest Statement on Monetary Policy released on Friday, the RBA said the economy was gaining momentum after the Omicron wave but would soon run out of steam.

    “Growth is then forecast to moderate in 2023 as extraordinary policy support is withdrawn, rising prices weigh on real income and consumption growth slows to more typical rates. GDP is forecast to grow by 4.25 per cent over 2022, and by 2 per cent over 2023,” it said.

    GDP growth of 2 per cent is noticeably below the sub-standard mid-2s we averaged through the 20-teens before COVID. The sort of growth that had the RBA cutting rates to try to (unsuccessfully) gee-up the underperforming economy, to counter the federal government’s dud fiscal performance.

    https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/2022/05/07/michael-pascoe-rates-rises/

  15. Barney in Tanjung Bunga says:
    Saturday, May 7, 2022 at 11:41 am

    Granny Anny @ #200 Saturday, May 7th, 2022 – 9:36 am

    You are full of it bluepill. The issues are simple. Morrison is a liar and his ministers are incompetent and corrupt.

    It’s time.

    Unethical conduct and corruption are surely no reason to remove a Government?
    中华人民共和国
    That’s exactly what the National Party said at the 1989 Queensland State Election!

  16. Lets hope BK is having internet trouble and not anything else. He is one of the freakish star players on this site.

  17. Would you use the base number of seats per states as electorate seats and then top up with list? What other constitutional issues would get in the way?

  18. Karen Middleton in the Saturday Paper today says that Labor are confident about Parramatta. Andrew Charlton seems to be running a very professional campaign, hardly the dud that some on this blog think he is

  19. You’d have to wonder why Dan Andrews would be willing to entertain the developer for 10k considering what it could cost his government. There are plenty of questions that IBAC need to delve into.

  20. Albo is back on track today in his presser in terms of handling the chooks in the press gallery. They are still trying on gotchas of course but he is being smooth and calling the presser over when he has got his messages across. Well done !!

  21. Im not worried about Parramatta any more than I am any NSW Labor seats except those in the Hunter.

    Posted my postal this morning along with the OH. Now in training to man a pre-poll booth for Labor next week and do my bit for the commies. Smile, be nice and flip the bird to Liberal voters who wander by [virtually of course} and sneer at me here in Bass.

  22. Granny Anny at 12pm

    I think Chalmers has also been effective in demolishing the Coalition’s “lower taxing” bullshit.

  23. Rewi,

    Amongst certain people there is certainly a demand for vigorous discussion of voting reform and there are no end of self interested schemes that would allegedly deliver same. The problem is that that is as far as it goes. Too many are absorbed by their self obvious magnificence and don’t do the work to change opinions to make reform occur.

  24. Out on the wild streets of Kooyong this morning for my Saturday morning shopping (buying flowers for mum), there were Greens people out near Glenferrie Station, strange red people for some not seen before party called the ALP (some were in white t-shirts however, must have been cheaper), a lot Blue people for Joshie boy… but the biggest number of people were the Teals. There was a teal person for every 5 shops on both sides of Glenferrie Road. There were more people campaigning than people walking on the street at 11 (it is a bit cold and overcast).

    The Liberals must be throwing a massive amount at the seat. They had shopping bags galore to the campaigners. And the mailboxes was a 12 page A5 booklet about Josh’s Local plan for Kooyong; I am no expert on printing but that must be at least a dollar each to produce. Combine that with the 5 letters I have had alternatively warning me of “fake independents” and how great Joshie boy is, it must be costing a bomb.

  25. Sandman at 12.11pm

    I live in the Hunter (Paterson electorate, 5.2% margin).

    There was an early plague of Liberal corflutes – many placed illegally. Much more balanced proportions now. PHON and UAP bits and pieces only, and no high profile candidates.

    A couple of blocks from my place, someone fronting a busy roundabout has a big ALP corflute – best location!

    I’m biased, but I’d be very surprised if Labor didn’t improve its margins in Paterson and Hunter.

  26. If anything could make MMP happen, it would be because a major party agreed to introduce it in order to secure crossbench support for it to form government. I don’t think that’s on the cards this time around. None of the existing independents or Teals has put it on the agenda: and given that they tend to run campaigns that focus on their closeness to the local community in their electorate, they might not feel it’s consistent with their approach

    However it could happen down the track, especially if the share of the PV received by major parties continues to fall. I’d wholeheartedly welcome it. MMP plus preferential voting would promote a much more democratic political culture.

  27. Snappy Tom @ #231 Saturday, May 7th, 2022 – 12:11 pm

    Granny Anny at 12pm

    I think Chalmers has also been effective in demolishing the Coalition’s “lower taxing” bullshit.

    Has he?
    He’s been awesome, don’t get me wrong but he’s had zero mainstream media attention.
    His epic take-down of Fryingturd at the PC didn’t make it on to the telly.

  28. What the hell is going on in the Philippines ? Don’t they remember what Ferdi and the Mrs were like before they got kicked out of office. Sheesh. !!

  29. People don’t seem to know what a gaffe is. Big difference between not knowing your party signature polices or the countries most important economic data and an unintentional word mishap.
    I understand why the word gaffe is still being used it tries to lesson the seriousness of Albanese’s lack of acumen but many are not buying it. Albanese is increasingly looking like he does not have the intellect for the job.
    The media has sussed him out and he is increasingly looking uncomfortable at any presser.
    He did not even look comfortable at all with the Speers interview and that was with an ABC audience that was clapping before he finished his answers. FFS
    They can’t hide or protect him any more than they have.

  30. Snappy Tom – Certain seems like it. Given that there are now hired security guards patrolling his signs they must have money to burn. But if I head over to Higgins there is maybe a 10% of the action over there in a seat they must hold to retain government.

    I was out in Hotham during the week and you would barely know there is an election going on there compared to here.

  31. Frydenberg on 42 is about what i have been hearing for a while but the interest thing is Wilson on 37 in a seat containing Brighton but this is where Daniel has taken a different approach to Ryan. Daniel has based herself in Brighton and Ryan has been based in Hawthorn which is Frydenberg’s weakest area.

  32. Good to hear Snappy. I hear the well known and popular Newcastle dude who got PHON a lot of votes in 2019 is now running as an Independent so PHON won’t be so influential this time around in Hunter.

  33. Beautiful Losers: Australia’s Leading Anti-Bellwether Seats: Hall of fame: Bendigo

    Obviously Bruce’s streak of nine Opposition wins is not an outright record, since any seat that voted Labor through the nine consecutive Coalition wins 1949-1969 ties it. But the seat of Bendigo stands out here because it voted for the loser in 1943 and 1946, flipped to Labor with a redistribution as Labor lost in 1949, and flipped to Liberal as Labor won in 1972 – giving Bendigo 13 Opposition wins in a row 1943-1974. I haven’t verified that this is the longest anti-bellwether streak of all time but it seems hard to top. After voting for the winner seven times in a row from 1975-1990 Bendigo has relapsed since, and is currently batting 3/11 (alongside Franklin and Cowan), with government wins in 1996, 2007, 2010.

    https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2022/05/beautiful-losers-australias-leading.html

  34. Morrison thinks that voters will see lingering covid issues as reasonable
    explanation for Albo’s brain fog so he’s going hell for leather.

    No 1 grandson sent vid shot of an extremely large promo rat looking very vicious behind black n white signs, “Put LNP last where they put Australia”
    Looks like young folk!
    It was shared on tiktok…

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