Boothby and ACT Senate polls

Labor looking good in Boothby, a promising result for ACT Senate independent David Pocock, and a quick look at today’s upper house elections in Tasmania.

Two bits of private polling to have emerged over the past day:

• The Advertiser reports a uComms poll for the SA Forest Products Association finds Labor with a 55-45 lead in the Adelaide seat of Boothby, held by the Liberals on a margin of 1.4% and to be vacated with the retirement of Nicolle Flint. The primary votes are Liberal 32.6%, Labor 31.7%, Greens 10.5% and independent Jo Dyer 5.5% – an element of the remainder would have been undecided and posed a forced-response follow-up, for which the results are not provided. Respondent-allocated preferences among the independents and minor parties flowed over 70% to Labor. The automated phone poll was conducted on Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 810.

• The Canberra Times reports a Redbridge poll of the Australian Capital Territory Senate race for Climate 200 had Labor Senator Katy Gallagher on 27% (down from 39.3% in 2019), Liberal Senator Zed Seselja on 25% (down from 32.4%), independent David Pocock on 21%, the Greens on 11% (down from 17.7%), independent Kim Rubenstein on 6% and the United Australia Party on 6% (up from 2.3%). These figures suggest Seselja would lose his seat to Pocock, although the fall in the Labor vote is enough to suggest that any combination of two out of Gallagher, Seselja and Pocock is possible. The automated phone poll was conducted on April 23 and 24 from a sample of 1064.

The Age/Herald had a report yesterday based on a combination of the last two Resolve Strategic federal polls, allowing journalist David Crowe to analyse New South Wales, Victorian and Queensland breakdowns from plausibly large sample size (though only as high as 509 in the case of Queensland). However, since breakdowns for these states are published with each monthly poll, it’s old news as far as I’m concerned.

In other electoral news, today is the day of Tasmania’s periodic Legislative Council elections, which this year encompass the Hobart seat of Elwick, which seems likely to be retained for Labor by Josh Willie; the north-eastern rural seat of McIntyre, where long-serving independent Tania Rattray might or might not be troubled by independent rival David Downie; and what is technically a by-election in Huon, covering the towns south of Hobart, resulting from the resignation of Labor-turned-independent member Bastian Seidel. The latter would seem to be a competitive race involving Labor, Liberal and three other candidates, and constitutes an electoral test of sorts for the state’s new Premier, Jeremy Rockliff. This site will feature live commentary of some description from 6pm.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

677 comments on “Boothby and ACT Senate polls”

Comments Page 6 of 14
1 … 5 6 7 … 14

  1. B S Fairman, strange names for beer sizes in SA always has been the case.

    I was born on the Goldfields where things were always a little different to the rest of the Cave. A standard sized beer across the Cave was called a middy, except on the Goldfields where it was a schooner.

    In the early 1960’s I took my bride to be to visit her grandmother in Adelaide. I was sent to the shops and decided to take the opportunity to drop into the pub. I didn’t know what to ask for so just ordered a beer. The Barmaid obviously spotted green as grass foreigner and said would that be a schooner. I agreed and she came back with a beer that was bigger than a bucket.

    And it tasted like the Murray River.

  2. BeaglieBoy says:
    Saturday, May 7, 2022 at 12:04 pm

    Talking like a Queenslander?….We South Australians all speak like Alexander Downer and Christopher Pyne, don’t you know?…..except we dont.
    中华人民共和国
    After a few bottles of Coonawarra Red, Croweater Language loosens up a fair whack

  5. Get used to it Steely, Morrison and his lying corrupt bunch of incompetents only have a couple of weeks left in office.

    Beyond that, an efficient, well funded FICAC will finish off the few that are left.

    The Teals will be the new opposition and the country will be vastly improved by the change.

  7. The “Curious-Snail” into overdrive running front and live trying to swing it for SfM.

    Once we had a State Member who was so unagreebale that when he went doorknocking his vote actually fell. When the Election was called he was told to go away on holiday – which he did. His vote increased as a result.

    All this coverage of the smirking liar might jujst be doing the job Labor needs it to do!

    “Election 2022 live: PM joins major rival; ‘treacherous’ Turnbull faces expulsion

    Scott Morrison has put the boot into scoring the 27 per cent of undecided voters he needs to convert in the final two weeks of the campaign as Malcolm Turnbull faces calls to be expelled from the Liberal Party.”

    https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/national/federal-election/pms-bid-to-woo-wine-beer-events-china-red-line-fears/news-story/8e30cb192a71529d59843ef68832b9c3?amp

  10. I won’t quickly forget the sight of crack athlete Morrison’s belly swinging under his shirt, while he stared down the throat of Adam Taylor’s camera and passed a football blindly offscreen. Burnt into my retina without use of a welder. Gah! I demand compensation

  12. Steely….Australians have sussed your lying, bullshitting, talk in wet cement huckster out now. He is gone, he cant even be allowed to talk to real voters, and whenever he is seen out in the open he is openly abused and shouted at……If that isnt being protected, I dont know what is. He is in cottonwool with all the rightwing media throwing him little dollies of questions all the while try to take Albo down with their bias and visciousness. He throws a tanti about debating on the ABC or NPC, being terrified of Laura Tingle, just wants his tummy rubbed by Ulhman or that fool on channel seven whose name escapes me…..Yet still your fool is losing.

  13. I will be blunt here. I hope Labor wins a majority and gets a clear run at government without leadership challenges and minority government this time. I think Morrison is poor excuse for a PM trying to steer the LNP back to the right and in doing so has probably cheesed off enough moderates in NSW with his captains picks and Katherine Deves stance (apart from all of his other failures as PM) to cost him his majority. That being said I am not entirely certain that people are completely sold on Labor and this runs the risk of being like 2010. I used to be a Greens member and do sympathise with their climate change and social justice stances but there are a few aspects that I cannot support due to their moves to the far left under the current leadership. If a hung parliament eventuates I would rather see Labor stay in opposition than do deals with the Greens as I do not want to see another “There will be no carbon tax under a government I lead” moment for Labor which in part has been the reason they have been in opposition for three terms now. This country desperately needs a change of government but not a rerun of 2010.

  14. D says:
    Saturday, May 7, 2022 at 12:37 pm

    BB
    Queenslanders like to end their conversations with ‘ay’.
    Regardless the topic or context…ay
    中华人民共和国
    Yeah – hey.

  15. Dog’s Brunch at 12.31

    I loved how Albo required the journo to specify when the tweet was from, after she’d waffled ‘A few years ago.’ When she admitted ‘2011’, his look of disdain was priceless.

    Media gotcha-ing themselves and simultaneously helping Albo look reasonable? A reverse-psychology, pro-ALP media conspiracy?

    I thought back to a famous Margaret Thatcher presser. A journo says ‘A lot of people are concerned about your [some policy]…’

    She said ‘Really? Name six.’

    BTW, I agree re the significance of incontinence. Sad that a journo tried to use the issue in a cheap and nasty way.

  16. It’s always better to be in government than opposition. Labor don’t need to offer the Greens much in exchange for support as if the Greens allowed the Coalition to stay in government their vote would be heavily damaged at the next election.

    It’ll be a bit rich if the same people currently hounding the teals as Labor or Greens plants claims they have an obligation to support the Coalition.

  17. There used to be a tram system around Adelaide

    So Henley Beach Road, Fullerton Road but I cannot remember Norwood Parade (but I think there were)

    Trams on King William Street and alongside King William Road thru the parklands

    Then came busses

  18. Just back from handing out for Unions NSW at the local shopping centre. We had a pretty positive response! From comments people made to us it does seem as though Scott Morrison is the government’s biggest problem. And it’s not like they can do anything about him. So it will be up to the people. 😀

  19. I am of course at the Labor Party campaign launch for Tasmania here in Launceston, listening to the leaders talking up Labor’s election policy and the need to get rid of the Coalition Government. Albo is being sharp, not waffling, getting a clear message across about cost of living, climate change, jobs and skills needed to grow the economy, the crisis in aged care, the Uluru statement from the Heart and Scomo’s not my job mate ! !. I am pumped – he let me give him a hug.. aww shucks. thanks ALBO.

  25. Sportsbet odds appear to have responded to the Lib internal polling news in Kooyong and Goldstein, the teals odds have shortened significantly:

    Kooyong
    ———-
    Frydenburg: $1.80
    Ryan: $1.92

    Goldstein
    ———-
    Daniel: $1.60
    Wilson: $2.20

  27. 70% will first preference a major at this election, despite the government’s low standing. Of the 30% that don’t, a good number are sending a message to the major they prefer(eg many Green voters who preference Labor). (I see the Nats as brand/product definition rather than being a party in their own right, when did they EVER go out on their own, and Nat voters to a person are voting for an LNP government.)

    While we retain our system of 2PP there will be 2 majors. If one of them explodes it will be soon replaced, within a cycle or 2, inexorably.

  28. I seem to remember
    “Zander “Downer referring to K Rudd as a frightful, horrid, beastly fellow. After hearing this and perchance being unfamiliar with Rudd, you would expect someone like “dishhead” Dowling to come barreling through the doors ready to knock some heads together. Zander must have lived in a rarified millieu.

  34. BeaglieBoy says:
    Saturday, May 7, 2022 at 12:54 pm

    Sandman and C@t fighting the good fight….proud of you guys
    中华人民共和国
    I second that motion brother

  36. C@T and Sandman

    Keep up the great work!

    “Morrison’s the problem. No fan of Moderate Liberals. Wants to create the party in his image.”

    Yep simple as that, it may be trite or even shallow but for two years I’ve believed that Morrison is THE problem, and only he can’t see it. He’s Albo’s ace in the hand. Albo is right to focus not only on policy but Morrison’s character. Phil Coorey was bemoaning as much today.

  38. Casual Observersays:
    Saturday, May 7, 2022 at 11:49 am
    On the subject of ‘Teal’ candidates does anyone have any oil on Cowper, Page or Hume?

    ————-

    I’m in Cowper. The first thing to note is that Labor are barely campaigning here. Whether it’s because they don’t want to throw resources at a seat they’re going to come third in, or they’re just hopeless locally, it’s hard to say. Maybe both. It’s a low income seat with plenty of suburban voters. They could and should do better, especially as they came within about 1% of winning it in 2007. Regardless, this election will be Nat v Ind.

    Caz Heise (teal) seems to be doing OK at getting name recognition built up, but she’ll struggle to get it as high as Rob Oakshott’s. Oakshott lost 57-43 in 2019, so with Heise’s lower recognition, she’d be starting from about 60-40 down. So it will come down to whether the swing up here from people being sick of Morrison’s bullshit hits 10%. Given that it’s an older electorate, I’d say probably not. Conaghan the Nat has been invisible, rather than actively loathsome. I’d say we’re likely looking at a Nat’s win that’s not convincing, but also not particularly close. I’d love it to be a tight contest, but it just doesn’t feel we’re there yet. Heise will blitz Bellingen Shire, get thumped in Kempsey, and probably do a bit better in Coffs (her end of the electorate) than Port (Conaghan’s).

    I visit neighbouring Page fairly often, and am not getting the feeling that the Independent there has any sort of chance. Having said that, I wouldn’t write Labor off in Page. Page has returned a government MP at every election since 1990. I have no idea why it doesn’t have a stronger reputation as a bellwether. Nats hold it with a 9.5% margin, but if there’s anywhere in NSW that might have a 10+% swing against the Nats, it will be Page, which is still dealing with a completely inadequate response to the recent floods (and is forecast for more heavy rain between now and election day). The Labor candidate is far, far better than in Cowper, and I reckon this could be a boilover on the night, although there’s a good chance the Nats will hold on, too.

    No idea about Hume.

  39. Evan

    “ And Morrison being kept out of Goldstein, Wentworth, Kooyong, Warringah and Mackeller for obvious reasons”

    Morrison’s more toxic than a tailings dam, he’s even unwanted by his own. As each day goes by I’m increasingly enjoying the schadenfreude buildup.

  41. I’m not sure if BK posted this article in the Dawn Patrol re. the teals, but it’s a very polished critique by Hartcher:

    [‘There are six truly competitive “teal” candidates running for seats in the House of Representatives in this election. It seems likely that two or three will win their seats, and possibly four.

    All are running against sitting Liberals. Giving rise to John Howard’s dismissive tagging of them this week as “anti-Liberal groupies”. They are not true independents, according to the Liberals. They are Labor-lite, or Labor in disguise. This sort of condescension shows that the Liberals have learned nothing since 2019, says Steggall.

    It’s “incredibly insulting” to the people who voted for her, many of them formerly lifelong Liberal voters. “Many people feel the Liberal Party left them,” not the other way around. “I think there’s a realignment under way,” says the former Olympic skier and barrister. “To describe seats as historically Liberal is assuming the current Liberal Party reflects the values traditionally associated with the Liberal Party.”

    The claim that most offends Steggall, however, is that Warringah and the other Liberal-held seats at risk of going teal are “Liberal seats by right”, as Peta Credlin, Abbott’s former chief of staff, puts it.

    The PM’s pitch: You might not like me, but you need me
    “Arrogance, laziness and entitlement,” exclaims Steggall. “The idea that these are Liberal seats ‘by right’ says it all – sheer hubris compared to the real principles of what we should stand for.”]

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/how-morrison-turns-the-blue-heartland-teal-20220505-p5aiyz.html

    I’m not sure that if any of the teal candidates get up, they could work with Morrison in a minority government, not that I think
    he’ll be in such a position come May, 21.

  42. I see Murdoch papers reckon 27% are undecided.

    What a load of crapola.

    Most people have made up their minds and given “lard arse” Morrison has done sfa the past 3 years other than play pretend dress ups.

    The day of reckoning has 14 days to go.

    $$$ would be pouring in to save Josh given the Libs know they are toast, Morrison will be tossed on the scrap heap and they need a middle conservative to be the next leader. This is a saving the furniture exercise.

  43. From Hartcher in the SMH

    “The most extraordinary fact of this election campaign is that the Liberal leader dare not campaign in the Liberals’ traditional heartland seats. Morrison may be the head of the party, but he’s lost its heart.”

    That about sums it up really.

  44. Let’s not forget that Australian born Rupert Murdoch tossed his citizenship aside because the United States has laws that say that only US citizens can own media companies.

    If it is good enough for them it it good enough for us. Former PM’s do have influence and I think the ALP will have a solid majority and therefore a mandate to have a Rudd royal commission into media behaviour.

    A simple outcome will be to mimic US laws about media ownership with a couple of dollups of cream on top, one being to copy the Canadian truth laws and the other to tax the profits that multi-nationals like facebook earn in Australia.

  46. Rewi @ #116 Saturday, May 7th, 2022 – 9:52 am

    I went to watch that Schiff video and saw a UAP ad targeted for WA that tells me that the Chinese have built a military grade airfield near Cape Preston in the Pilbara, where it was suggested they also control a deep water port.

    And it’s Pierre Yang and Mark McGowan’s fault because Yang is apparently acting in China’s interests, so don’t vote for Labor.

    That old piece of used chewing gum again!?! They said that last election. It wasn’t happening then and it’s not happening now.

    Has anyone asked Clive Palmer why he’s featuring a Russian Sub in his ads? Oh, that’s right, Clive Palmer is unaccountable to the media.

  48. ”
    Lars Von Triersays:
    Saturday, May 7, 2022 at 11:06 am
    Don’t know re Sharma Ven. The teal independents are flavour of the month – but do they get more than say 30% primary and win seats ? Not sure.

    Still think Albo will win though – Only needs 5 seats to get to 74 (and a majority with Wilkie and Bandt). Still 2 weeks to go though.
    ”

    I think Sharma is gorn. Not sure about other aspiring Teals but Spender will win. There is desperation in Sharma’s campaigning when compared to other inner city Lib MPs and he is on about 1.5% margin, which is very difficult to defend in current political climate and Turnbull is not supporting him like last time.

  49. Over in the Pub a poster Kirdarke has provided an article well worth reading, the last paragraph in particular that I have copied here. I wonder if Steelydan has a view about this:

    “By what mysterious process does Scott Morrison hope to make us forget all of the people killed by the many, many, many policy and administrative failures of his government—and I mean literally killed, I’m not fucking joking here, these dribbling cheerios have put people in the ground with their half-arsed, fuckbungling of Covid in aged care and the cruel and unusual punishment of completely innocent punters via Robodebt—so by what fucking measure of fail clown reasoning does this feckless dipshit think he gets to handwave that stuff away by serving up an uncooked chicken curry”?

Comments Page 6 of 14
1 … 5 6 7 … 14

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *