The Australian reports the weekly campaign Newspoll has Labor’s two-party lead increasing from 53-47 to 54-46, their primary vote up a point to 39% with the Coalition down one to 35% and the three minor parties steady, the Greens at 11%, One Nation at 5% and the United Australia Party at 4%. Scott Morrison’s personal ratings are deteriorated, his approval down three to 41% and disapproval up four to 55%, while Anthony Albanese is up a point to 41% and down two to 47%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 45-39 to 44-42.
The poll also found Labor leading 44% to 41% as best party to handle cost-of-living pressures. On this question at least, breakdowns are apparently offered by gender (44% each among men, but 45% to 38% in favour of Labor among women) and age (dramatically more favourable to the Coalition among the old than the young, as usual). The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1523.
Also out today in the Financial Review was an Ipsos poll suggesting Labor is headed for a landslide win, with primary votes of Labor 35% (up one since a fortnight ago), Coalition 29% (down three), Greens 12% (steady), One Nation 4% (steady), United Australia Party 3% (steady) others 9% (up two) and 7% undecided (down one).
The poll offers two interpretations of two-party preferred, one of which asks respondents who support minor parties or independents to either state a preference between the Coalition and Labor or remain uncommitted, which has Labor on 50% and the Coalition on 35%, with the remaining 15% being those uncommitted on either the primary vote or the preferences question. The other allocates distributes minor party and independent preferences as per the 2019 election result, which has Labor on 52% and the Coalition on 40% with 8% identified as undecided. The accompanying report notes this translates into a 57-43 lead for Labor if the undecided are excluded.
The poll also finds 33% rate the global economy the factor most responsible for last week’s increase in interest rates, with the government on 16%, the pandemic on 17%, the Reserve Bank on 16% and the war in Ukraine on 7%. Personal ratings find Scott Morrison down two on approval to 32% and up three on disapproval to 51%, with Anthony Albanese down one to 30% and up one to 36%. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister widens from 40-38 to 41-36. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 2311.
This will be the victory Bob Hawke deserved to see,
ltep says:
Sunday, May 8, 2022 at 7:00 pm
They were just as bad at the last election and were returned with a swing to them.
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The Liberals ran a much better campaign last time. This campaign has had no energy no confidence and no clear message.
Griff says:
Sunday, May 8, 2022 at 7:06 pm
sprocket_ @ Sunday, May 8, 2022 at 6:53 pm
Wow! Over 1 in 5 Greens voters think that The Greens will win the election.
How did Firefox vote so often?
中华人民共和国
Haven’t seen Fire-Fox for some time. I miss his sense of humour.
ratsak @ #74 Sunday, May 8th, 2022 – 6:58 pm
My thoughts exactly.
Pauline Hanson won’t have the balance of power in the next parliament. She is battling a host of right wing loons for the final Queensland senate seat. She is history.
“But if they’re mostly voters that are now having second thoughts about sticking with Scomo?”
The 51% disapproval really doesn’t look good for him. A majority have made up their minds for the worse, and there’s a good chance a lot of Albo’s disapprove/undecided percentages are people who will definitely vote Labor but think he’s blowing an easy win.
Mexicanbeemer says:
Sunday, May 8, 2022 at 7:07 pm
ltep says:
Sunday, May 8, 2022 at 7:00 pm
They were just as bad at the last election and were returned with a swing to them.
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The Liberals ran a much better campaign last time. This campaign has had no energy no confidence and no clear message.
中华人民共和国
And no Alan Tudge
Its going to worth watching a commercial channel tonight for the debate just to look for the extra desperation on Morrisons eyes.
A belting at the election and one of the first things I would tackle / leave as my legacy is to change the media ownership laws. KRudd can act as consultant. This may cost the next term but could also set up Labor for a fair shake of the sauce bottle forever more.
Upnorth says:
Sunday, May 8, 2022 at 6:52 pm
Obviously John Howard out campaigning has had the desired results.
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“Weekend at Bernie’s” no longer works, apparently.
Such a result as this has been gathering momentum over the past 3 years
3 years
The Liberal Party (so an collection of State and Territory Divisions plus the CLP in Queensland) is on the nose
Led by a Leader who is on the nose
And everyone has a different reason for such an opinion given how out of touch the Liberal Party is
I placed on this forum some time ago that internal polling by the Liberal Party taken on a State by State basis had a 2 in front of their primary vote figure in certain of those jurisdictions
The others are now catching up
Bug1: they could withhold the results of the latest poll from Morrison while he prepares for the debate until after. If I were the campaign manager I would. Why risk unhingement?
When I was a kid at Gresford show, if you caught the greased piglet you got to take it home. Its easier said than done
Alan Tudge is ahem, some prize catch
Just in – David Rowe.
Freya Stark says:
Sunday, May 8, 2022 at 7:11 pm
Bug1: they could withhold the results of the latest poll from Morrison while he prepares for the debate until after. If I were the campaign manager I would. Why risk unhingement?
中华人民共和国
“Why risk unhingement?” – errr too late
True Believer
“This may cost the next term”
How would that possibly cost the next term? Would the media get angry and stop giving them a fair go?
Newspoll prediction: 55-45 to ALP.
@ Freya Stark
Morrison strikes me as a controlling type, he’ll want to know ASAP.
Feeling like the dam walls have broken (assuming no major cock ups in the debate)
Smirko will know the latest polling for sure…if it’s bad then he will become more desperate/unhunged
There might be more undecided voters than the start of the campaign.
My guess is that many of them are considering switching sides but when they put pencil to paper they’ll end up choosing the party they’ve always voted for.
Woke-pc-thug says:
Sunday, May 8, 2022 at 7:14 pm
Smirko will know the latest polling for sure…if it’s bad then he will become more desperate/unhunged
中华人民共和国
Did SfM learn the word “unhunged” in NZ?
Smirko will know the latest polling for sure…if it’s bad then he will become more desperate/unhunged
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Slip into talking in tongues, perhaps?
BK:
Brilliant Rowe!
Steve777 @ #120 Sunday, May 8th, 2022 – 5:14 pm
You would think that most of those who are undecided at this point are wavering Liberals, so if they don’t end up switching this would improve the LNP’s vote slightly.
CU. I think there would be a united campaign by stokes, murderoch etc and they would go all out as this would represent an existential crisis so that could land a major blow but if it’s legislated, they won’t be able to damage Labor any further.
Another piece of good news, keep it comin’!!!!! I really hope for an ALP win and that it shows Murdoch and his looney tune media that he has jumped the shark once and for all.
From a reliable source..
So Josh pays his walking billboards a higher hourly rate than aged care workers ($28.38 per hour on average).
Why this lot of lying corrupt incompetents with their inbred deep disrespect for common decency thought that campaigning on their record was a good idea smacks my gob. And they (the lying corrupt incompetents) have actually dug in. There was Morrison today chucking the RDA back into the ring. Christ on a bike.
(edit: disrespect)
Ipsos does all of its surveying for elections by person to person, live phone calls to a larger number of respondents than any of the other pollsters. (2311 in this case, as WB states.) The respondents are drawn from a pool of around 140,000 Australians who have agreed to be willing to receive offers to participate in surveys. The detailed disclosure statement, and text of this survey has not been posted yet, but for the April 22 survey, 17% were contacted via land-line, and 83% by mobile phone.
Ipsos are foundation members of the Australian Polling Council, and produce a ‘Long Methodology Disclosure Statement’ for each poll, which include the questions, and detailed instructions for interviewers.
Their panel overview looks like this:
https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2018-07/panel_aus_v1.pdf
There is one silly error in their labelling in that graphic. NSW is labelled as 1% of their sample, but the segment indicates around 33%. One noticeable feature of their full panel is that it skews younger than the population as a whole, so that they would have to do some massaging of the raw data to get a reasonable prediction wrt 55+ age group.
This is the disclosure statement for 22 April poll:
https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/2022-04/20220426%20TAPC%20Methodology%20Disclosure%20Statement_Poll.pdf
To summarise, they are a serious, thoroughly professional outfit, and would be very sensitive about publishing what may appear to be a bit of a wild card result, particularly in the light of the 2019 situation. Ipsos were closest to the actual, and within their stated MOE.
Will we see the betting agencies paying out early again ?
Upnorth says:
Sunday, May 8, 2022 at 6:52 pm
Obviously John Howard out campaigning has had the desired results.
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So next week do we get Tony Abbott?
Quote of the day goes to my 93 year old grandad. A life liberal voter, until McGowan.
“Morrison has the arrogance of Keating, the honesty of Putin and the competence of Palmer”
Note: he does not like Keating, Palmer or Putin.
10/10 for the depictions of the preening posing roosters of the MSM 🙂
MSM and Kerry Stokes seem to have had little influence in last week with their headlines, what will it be next week?
True Believer
So you don’t think that Old Media are hitting their demographic limit of setting the agenda in this campaign? I can’t see viewing habits shifting in such a way that they will have monopoly over discourse again.
Steve777 @ Sunday, May 8, 2022 at 7:14 pm
“There might be more undecided voters than the start of the campaign.
My guess is that many of them are considering switching sides but when they put pencil to paper they’ll end up choosing the party they’ve always voted for.”
This is possible. That said, the trend is our friend and the numbers look quite baked in. Apart from an initial narrowing in the initial weeks of the election campaign, the trend for an increase in the Labor PV and decrease in the Coalition PV has been reasonably constant. The TPP not so much, but still an overall trend.
Completely irrelevant, but the Josh walking billboards remind me of The Nose, an opera about a guy who wakes up and finds his nose has gone missing.
https://youtu.be/YotMwwixPsw
So Josh pays his walking billboards a higher hourly rate than aged care workers ($28.38 per hour on average).
What’s a little extra for an essential service.
Luigi Smith says:
Sunday, May 8, 2022 at 7:21 pm
Upnorth says:
Sunday, May 8, 2022 at 6:52 pm
Obviously John Howard out campaigning has had the desired results.
++++++
So next week do we get Tony Abbott?
中华人民共和国
Sir Robert Menzies
Mexican…I commented a couple of days ago that one thing that has struck me two weeks out, has been the very bland nature of the the LNP campaign….
Setting aside the crap that may come, the ads have been weak and repetitive on TV.
Labor ads have been more cutting and to the point.
Morrison has been in and out of Perth twice and it has not made a bit of difference to the campaign as nobody knew or cared he was here – other than what is left of the Liberal Party locally and the West newspaper.
Even the West – apart from the first week when they told us all that Albanese was “not fit for the job” of PM – has not really gone overboard for Morrison.
Compared with 2019 the vibe is different as while his critics want to know “Who Albanese is?” the voters here is WA certainly know who Morrison is and no amount of soap is going to change his relatively poor rating……
#Ipsos Poll Federal Primary Votes: L/NP 29 (-3) ALP 35 (+1) GRN 12 (0) ON 4 (0) UAP 3 (0) Others 10 (+2) Don’t know 7 (-1) #ausvotes
Movement in the betting markets.
Sportsbet has Labor in to $1.33 (from $1.38) and Coalition out to $3.30 (from $3.00).
Sally McManus
@sallymcmanus
·
20m
I think people are thinking they don’t want to turn on their TVs and see/hear Scott Morrison for another three years
GhostWhoVotes
@GhostWhoVotes
#Ipsos Poll Morrison: Approve 32 (-2) Disapprove 51 (+3) #ausvotes
Has anyone else on here seen the latest Liberal ad ? With the annoying tune and rusty bucket it could be about anything. It is really amateur, is this the best Dexter Pinion has got up his sleeve.
Will we get a Resolve Poll?
ItzaDream
“Completely irrelevant, but the Josh walking billboards remind me of The Nose, an opera about a guy who wakes up and finds his nose has gone missing.”
There was meme video like that that I can’t find now, a bunch of weird nose and eyeball costumes go wandering around Footscray.
It’s faceless and depersonalised risible nonsense. Like them.
Prince planet @ #90 Sunday, May 8th, 2022 – 7:30 pm
I saw it earlier. Tune that older viewers will know. It could be effective or backfire and be annoying
Watch out for the Newspoll 51-49 special, dusted off in cases of emergency to portray a non- existent “tightening” and “narrowing” narrative