The Australian reports the weekly campaign Newspoll has Labor’s two-party lead increasing from 53-47 to 54-46, their primary vote up a point to 39% with the Coalition down one to 35% and the three minor parties steady, the Greens at 11%, One Nation at 5% and the United Australia Party at 4%. Scott Morrison’s personal ratings are deteriorated, his approval down three to 41% and disapproval up four to 55%, while Anthony Albanese is up a point to 41% and down two to 47%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 45-39 to 44-42.
The poll also found Labor leading 44% to 41% as best party to handle cost-of-living pressures. On this question at least, breakdowns are apparently offered by gender (44% each among men, but 45% to 38% in favour of Labor among women) and age (dramatically more favourable to the Coalition among the old than the young, as usual). The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1523.
Also out today in the Financial Review was an Ipsos poll suggesting Labor is headed for a landslide win, with primary votes of Labor 35% (up one since a fortnight ago), Coalition 29% (down three), Greens 12% (steady), One Nation 4% (steady), United Australia Party 3% (steady) others 9% (up two) and 7% undecided (down one).
The poll offers two interpretations of two-party preferred, one of which asks respondents who support minor parties or independents to either state a preference between the Coalition and Labor or remain uncommitted, which has Labor on 50% and the Coalition on 35%, with the remaining 15% being those uncommitted on either the primary vote or the preferences question. The other allocates distributes minor party and independent preferences as per the 2019 election result, which has Labor on 52% and the Coalition on 40% with 8% identified as undecided. The accompanying report notes this translates into a 57-43 lead for Labor if the undecided are excluded.
The poll also finds 33% rate the global economy the factor most responsible for last week’s increase in interest rates, with the government on 16%, the pandemic on 17%, the Reserve Bank on 16% and the war in Ukraine on 7%. Personal ratings find Scott Morrison down two on approval to 32% and up three on disapproval to 51%, with Anthony Albanese down one to 30% and up one to 36%. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister widens from 40-38 to 41-36. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 2311.
2019 broke everyone’s confidence. Mine included. It’s totally understandable.
The chance of an ALP blowout is more likely than even an LNP minority, let alone a narrow LNP majority.
Yet, most of us aren’t letting our brains skip ahead yet.
Pi @ #1845 Monday, May 9th, 2022 – 9:55 pm
Ah so you’re saying it’s potentially underestimating the final ALP 2pp share in select seats?
My read of the 60-40 flow in 2019 is that it’s basically an indication that progressives were more likely to vote IND. Not a great predictor of the final flows in any one seat in 2020. If lots of blue ribbon electors vote 1 Teal, 2 LIB this time round – the final IND preference flows Australia-wide could change massively from 2019.
IzzyNeel @ #1850 Monday, May 9th, 2022 – 10:02 pm
But still won a majority of seats, convincingly.
SA Bludger @ #1851 Monday, May 9th, 2022 – 10:04 pm
In terms of what is likely and what is being anticipated, well said.
Something I’d be interested to know from all sides of politics, what would be their stance on the expansion of parliament?
It’s happened twice before since Federation. Once in 1949 when each state elected 10 instead of 6 Senators, and again in 1984 when it increased to 12 Senators, each time being with the constitutionally appropriate increase in House members (at least double the amount of Senators).
In 1949 it had been 48 years, and in 1984 it had been 35 years. Now in 2022 it has been 38 years since the last expansion, so, would it be the right time to expand further to say 14 Senators per state with another 20 or so house members as outlined in the constitution (any change from that requires a referendum) or leave it as is?
Kirsdarke says:
Monday, May 9, 2022 at 10:09 pm
Something I’d be interested to know from all sides of politics, what would be their stance on the expansion of parliament?
———
Enthusiastically in favour.
@SA – In my mind, it’s being alert but not alarmed.
I’m conscious weird things can happen, but my own view of this election hasn’t changed for months. I understand people’s concerns following 2019. Despite my growing concerns by this point in 2019 (to the point of becoming deeply worried, it still stunned me), I personally don’t see the point of prevarication in 2022.
Could it happen? Sure. Do I expect it? Not at all.
The 2PP preferences flows:
https://results.aec.gov.au/24310/Website/HouseStateTppFlow-24310-NAT.htm
The 59.4-40.6 2PP preference flow for independents does not include the Greens, who have a separate preference flow (82.21-17.79 in favour of the ALP).
Taylormade @ #1841 Monday, May 9th, 2022 – 9:55 pm
We know that already. Thier, thier.
Mavis says:
Monday, May 9, 2022 at 8:07 pm
“In the Senior Service in my day, those commissioned from the lower deck were made special duties (SD) officers. There was a view by general list officers (those who entered via Creswell) that SD officers were below them, and it was rare for an SD officer to be promoted above the rank of LCDR, though a few did. It’s probably all changed now.”
Fairly similar in the Army.
By the way, did you catch my email earlier this morning responding to you from last night? I wasn’t being rude last night, just dozed off (chuckle).
“Ah so you’re saying it’s potentially underestimating the final ALP 2pp share in select seats?”
Pretty sure he is saying that
-there is a considerable suppression on the Labor vote across a large number of Blue-Teal contests (Labor voters aware of where the game is at and shifting their FP to the Teal)
-that this “artificially” knocks up to a point off the Labor party’s general PV number as relevant to all the other seats
-that this leads to the polls understating the swing to Labor both in terms of FP and 2PP
I don’t think there’s a general feeling in the country that Parliament would be improved by having more people in it.
Dare I say the improvement in technology has made it more practicable for MPs to stay abreast of a much larger number of constituents.
I don’t know what the rationale would really be for an expansion of Parliament.
I think what you we conclude about the UAP is:
1) Their ad blitz has the effect of picking up every last person who might vote for them. The ads are impossible to avoid.
2) There are probably more people than you think, who are partial to the UAP’s populist messages.
The unknown is where will this vote be the strongest, and where will people put their preferences? Sounds like c*nty Clive is directing them to the Libs in pretty much every seat that matters. But how closely will they follow the HTVs? My understanding is preference discipline is markedly lower among fringe parties like the UAP.
Or it could be 2019 all over again where the UAP is hyped up but does pretty poorly, even if slightly better than 2019.
I am intrigued. This will be an interesting election.
A widening of the TPP and seemingly soft vote deep into the election.
I thought both Albo and Scomo did ok last night. A bit of mongrel in both that you don’t see in Town Hall scenarios. Scomo did look aggressive and smirky, which he tends to do. Albo was defensive and inclined to platitudes rather than lay out policy clearly, but that final statement was great. I think the audience still felt that Scott was more across the detail than Albo could manage.
What is interesting though is that the markets have not reflected the sentiment reported by the polls. Sure the head to head tightened, but that is as useless as the TPP in predicting the last few elections… just blind punters reading newspapers.
I still can’t see the net gains that the ALP needs in those marginals. I think the LNP may lose three new seats to Independents, but there are a handful of ALP seats that could go either way, and each one that does, the ALP has to find an extra gain.
With Hawke in the bag and, say, an independent as speaker, that narrows it to 6, but that is still more difficult than the Coalition finding, perhaps, 4-5 seats net. Sharkie has already committed to support in the event that the Coalition can form government. Katter is the only other I can see offering support (and that is a stretch) with lots of horse trading (with Katter… that might even be literal).
Still, on balance, I can’t see the seats for the ALP, the tide is too shallow from last election.
If the 2pp at this election were to end up ALP 51 Coalition 49 the ALP would need everything to go right for them to get to 76 seats even 74 would be a struggle.
There is historical prcedent for Labor losing from a similar position re news poll we are not talking winning the lotto type probabilities nothing like it.
.
I’d be happy with 77 seats to the ALP, A majority with 1 to spare. The rest to whomever gets them. Hopefully lots of teals.
The ALP, especially Albo can make tight numbers work.
I am very much hoping that the ALP schedule the shit out of parliament. The LNP hate being there so they may as well make them work day in day out, month to month. No breaks, shorter shutdowns and lots of laws passed.
I’m really hoping for a mega blowout and a firm rejection of the hard right, evangelical politicians from my fellow Australians. Maybe the flooding rains over the next week or two in QLD will remind people that this climate change thing affects us all.
But 76+ will do.
Anyway, I’ve been thinking about the Teals. They will be a big problem for the LNP. Either the LNP create their own teal candidates and wins back the seats or they try and make their own platform more inclusive to the teals to win them into the fold. But that second part seems unlikely, so there may be a structural issue forming for the LNP in the house.
Just wait for the first Teal Senator! That’ll be interesting.
1998 the lnp received 40.1 primary and 49.02 2pp…
If their primary is below 40 they have a hard time forming govt.
For example, the markets are saying:
ALP
Bass
Braddon
Robertson
IND
Wentworth
MacKellar
That’s it.
Tangney, Hasluck and Curtin are not showing significant shifts in WA
But you also have Gilmore and Longman that may well fall to LNP. So that is plus 2 on 69 current (if Hawke is pencilled in)…. 71. Where are the rest??
“Enthusiastically in favour.”
Me Too
Using the “cube root rule” Australia has the third smallest representation in the OECD after the US and Canada
I am a huge fan of the Australian Bicameral system of a Instant run off based single representation in the lower house and the a type of PV in the house of review. Expanding the number of lower and upper house seats by a third would enhance the democratic merit of both these features considerably.
In a small straw poll I could not believe most thought Morrison had done a good job, was the better leader and would vote for him. They referred to the supposed gaffes, clearly consumers of the msm. The old adage that no-one ever went broke underestimating the Australian people comes to mind.
You can’t reason with these types., it’s like arguing with idiots. They always bring you down to their level then beat you with experience.
My worry and I know polling companies have tried to remove this bias is the vote of the broken toothed Collingwood supporter – scomos bogans. They don’t often answer polls so we need to keep the lid on for now.
Hazza: “My read of the 60-40 flow in 2019 is that it’s basically an indication that progressives were more likely to vote IND.”
It doesn’t matter where they WENT in 2019, it matters that there are 7-8 seats NOW where 20K-30k people per Teals contested seat that would normally vote ALP as a PV, aren’t anymore. And the Teal PV polling is pretty high. If you have 150K ALP voters (or more) suddenly disappear from your PV, and only 90K return to your 2PP because pollsters are applying the 60/40 of the previous election, you should be expecting to lose (for the sake of brevity) ~1% off your PV.
But the kicker is that the PV isn’t going down. And that 60K is coming off seats that are not competitive for the ALP AT ALL. Which means the PV everywhere else, as an average, must be going up.
In that case, I’m wondering how the 1984 expansion of parliament was handled at the time. It happened before I was born so I have little to work from, but was it something that was mutually accepted or bitterly opposed?
Kirsdarke @ #1855 Monday, May 9th, 2022 – 10:09 pm
I have an issue with only electing 6 senators per state per election, in that it’s only proportional to an extent. The major parties (excl the Greens) hold 80% of senate seats but got 67% of the senate vote in 2019. It’s difficult for a single minor party to get enough votes to take a seat, especially with Group Voting Tickets rightly abolished.
bluepill @ Monday, May 9, 2022 at 10:20 pm
Just Google it, mate. I’ll even help you out:
https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/politics/australian-federal-politics
Go to the State links.
Get back to us when you work it out. But then again, it may not suit your purpose 😉
True Believer,
I like Bill Shorten, I think he’s a good politician, but his youthful ambition cast a shadow on him later in life. In 2019, Bill not only had to overcome the LNP, He also had to overcome the myth around him and his terrible image problems from RGR. He was a drag on the ticket.
I am hopefully for Labor because previously Scott Morrison was the man who stopped the boats, but he is now the man who can’t stop the Chinese boats, or help in the fires, or the floods. He needs empathy coaches and thinks he’s luck his kids are normal. Scott is now in the position where he needs to overcome the reality and myth around himself in order to win.
I think the sentiment is with the ALP.
Am keen on a more representative democracy. Increased numbers of representatives helps. Worth the additional costs.
blupill: “That’s it.”
Lol. Goldstein is gorn.
Someday we’ll have Albanese
Albanese isn’t easy to come by
By the time he come by Morrison’ll be gone
I’ll sing my song and he’ll be gone
Apologies to Spectrum.
bluepillsays:
Monday, May 9, 2022 at 10:16 pm
I am intrigued. This will be an interesting election.
A widening of the TPP and seemingly soft vote deep into the election.
—
Looks like you got the Liberal Party HQ trolling meme theme later than Benson at the Australian hoping voters will suddenly change their minds and jump on board the Scomo train. Tell me how a jump to 39% PV for Labor and another 2 point gap in the 2PP can be read as a “soft vote” ? There was nothing soft I saw working a pre poll station today. Most had clearly come with clear plans about who to vote for, one way or the other.
I have no issue increasing the size of the parliament … but just the House not the Senate.
Kirsdarke
There is this ‘cube root theory’ that the ideal number of members in the lower house is the cube root of the population.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cube_root_rule
Australia’s population is about 26 million and the cube root is about 296. I had thought this rule meant total of both houses which would mean something like 200 lower house and 100 senate. Even that seems too many. But if we went to 14 senators per state it would be absurd to keep ACT and NT on two each. Maybe 4 in NT and 6 in ACT for total 90, and a House of 180.
Australia’s population was about 4 million in 1901 (house 75, senate 36)
8 million in 1949 (house 121, senate 60)
15.5 million 1984 (house 148, senate 76)
So on a per capita basis we have many fewer representatives relatively for our 26 million population than we had in the past.
Interestingly that cubic rule would increase the US House from 435 to 693, and decrease the UK Commons from 650 to 406. Canada on 338 is nearly spot on.
People here might rather enjoy this story from a couple of years ago which is technically absolutely nothing to do with politics but great for understanding the petty mentality in some communities of your fellow Australians. Of course it is from Queensland.
https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/national/queensland/the-bowlo-bunfight-that-ripped-a-club-apart-and-ended-up-in-court-20180910-p502t0.html
“There were still bits of food on some of the washed-up cutlery. Robyn commented on this, which is when June told her not to worry about it, which is when Robyn snapped.”
“Both sides agree that the whole affair is absurd, highly destructive and titanically petty.”
“Nambour, for example, now has one bank account, and a board made up of both men and women. “Some of the men don’t cope with that very well,” Nev tells me. “They don’t like having to answer to a woman.””
“Geoff became obsessed with what he saw as a deep injustice and pursued it for four years, almost destroying his marriage and having a nervous breakdown in the process, at the end of which he went to Beckhaus Legal, a local Nambour law firm, where a solicitor named Matt patiently heard him out before suggesting that Geoff “go see a psychiatrist”. Geoff now tells me that “this was actually quite good advice”, which he subsequently heeded.”
south @ #1866 Monday, May 9th, 2022 – 10:16 pm
Me too. I’ve been meaning to ask is it possible/common for incoming governments to redraw the year’s sitting schedule?
As for the election, I sleep easy now after the first week. For me the interest is what happens to the Liberal Party post-election. Will we even see a shift in the Overton window?
hazza: ” The major parties (excl the Greens) hold 80% of senate seats but got 67% of the senate vote in 2019.”
That ain’t gonna change. There will always be people who vote for minor parties and their votes don’t meet quotas. The majors pool their votes so only the final one has the one that doesn’t meet a quota. In order for that to change math would have to change.
Pi @ #1871 Monday, May 9th, 2022 – 10:25 pm
Gotcha, cheers.
Possible alternative to Albo-lanche.. in the event of a Labor landslide.
‘The Big Easy’
(With apologies to New Orleans.. )
Kirsdarke says:
Monday, May 9, 2022 at 10:26 pm
In that case, I’m wondering how the 1984 expansion of parliament was handled at the time. It happened before I was born so I have little to work from, but was it something that was mutually accepted or bitterly opposed?
————
As I recall the Liberals opposed it but the Nats dudded them and supported it, because it solved the problem of declining numbers of Nat seats in the House. Of the ~30 odd new seats, the Nats had prospects of picking up a handful
I reckon there’s a heap of ALP supporters who will be voting Teal #1 as strategically that’s the best chance of knocking off a Lib. Take north Sydney for example. If state Willoughby swing was anything to go by, the rwnj Tim James nearly got knocked off cos he was parachuted over GGG who would have won easily. That dude is gone in 2023. I think this bodes badly for Zimmerman as everyone knows there’s a chance of getting back at scummo cos it’s close enough to be a contest.
@hazzah – of course, a new Government would manage the business of the House. There’s a ‘process’ but no issue.
“bluepillsays:
Monday, May 9, 2022 at 10:20 pm
For example, the markets are saying:
ALP
Bass
Braddon
Robertson
IND
Wentworth
MacKellar
That’s it.
Tangney, Hasluck and Curtin are not showing significant shifts in WA
But you also have Gilmore and Longman that may well fall to LNP. So that is plus 2 on 69 current (if Hawke is pencilled in)…. 71. Where are the rest??”
What “markets” are you looking at?
1. There are more than 75 seats Labor is favourite with the bookies (in addition to 2 WA seats you have denied, there is Chisolm, Reid, Boothby off the top of my head)
2. Probabilistically, the odds imply a likely higher number than that – i.e. there are a larger number of LNP seats where Labor is not favourite but not far off
You are doing it wrong
May 22 2022 I’m going to wake up with the grandfather of all headaches either from the celebratory drinkies or bashing my head against a wall screaming WTF HAVE YOU DONE AUSTRALIA!!!
what is the significance of the Republic of China 中华人民共和国 in UpNorths posts ?
hazza4257 @ #1885 Monday, May 9th, 2022 – 10:32 pm
Yes. The incoming government has a mandate and the Manager of Government Business, in consultation with the leadership team draws up a new calendar.
The vibe I’m picking up right now is the libs are entering desperate times. The story they are putting out for re election is not compelling and the whole presentation seems slap dash and ad hoc. Their TV ads are not hitting the mark and the type of voters they are trying to get onside probably don’t know what an economic portfolio even means. Scomoe looks rattled like what he fervently believed he could pull off is not coming to pass. Albo looks relaxed and it’s like the Murdoch press is firing blanks and ineffectual. I can’t see the future and we were all stunned in 2019 but this time seems different, I’d be extremely surprised if the libs don’t lose in excess of 10 seats to ALP and independents and probably a good few more unless something really unusual happens
Pi @ #1879 Monday, May 9th, 2022 – 10:31 pm
Maybe Tim Wilson should have devoted more time to his electorate and less time to performative stunts and roadshows.
I’m strangely attached to the idea that the HoR and Senate have few enough members that you can learn most of their names and ideologies, trivia etc. For the political junkie it’s quite enjoyable.
I couldn’t imagine being a political observer in the US with 425 Reps, mostly anonymous. Not to mention having discussions about the potential swings in State X’s 4th Congressional District etc. How boring!
Palmer explains to Murray how he’s preferencing the majors:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gUzFr9xq5IE&t=320s
And Frydenberg in happier times:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gUzFr9xq5IE&t=320s
Cronus @ #1656 Monday, May 9th, 2022 – 7:08 pm
Cronus: Avoidance of administration is the norm in Medicine, too. OC is one of the few senior medical administrators who were previously well respected clinicians (in his case a surgeon).
Prince Planet,
I agree that the Coalition’s ads are not hitting the mark. They’re all a bit, ho hum, that line of attack against Labor again. Not to mention the supremely silly picture of Albanese they’ve chosen for their ‘It won’t be easy under Albanese’ posters. Just lame.