Morgan: 54.5-45.5 to Labor

A change in Morgan’s preference model produces a tiny tick to the Coalition on two-party preferred, while primary votes move slightly in Labor’s favour.

The weekly Roy Morgan poll finds Labor’s two-party lead falling back slightly to 54.5-45.5, in from 55-45 last week. However, the pollster has switched from respondent-allocated preference to using the flows from 2019, the former of were producing results more favourable to Labor. The movements on the primary vote are actually in favour of Labor, who are up half a point to 35.5% with the Coalition down one to 34%. The Greens are steady on 13%, One Nation are up one to 4% and the United Australia Party is steady on 1%.

The state breakdowns, which cannot be directly compared to last week’s due to the change in the preference calculation, have Labor leading 51.5-48.5 in New South Wales (a swing to Labor of about 3.5%), 61-39 in Victoria (about 8%), 57.5-42.5 in Western Australia (about 13%) and 62.5-37.5 in South Australia (about 12%). The Coalition leads 53.5-46.5 in Queensland (a swing to Labor of about 5%) and 60-40 from the tiny sample in Tasmania. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1401.

Further chatter from around the traps:

• Karen Middleton of The Saturday Paper reports that Liberal polling shows Tim Wilson “headed for defeat” at the hands of independent Zoe Daniel in Goldstein with 37% of the primary vote, while Josh Frydenberg’s vote in Kooyong is “currently tracking at 42%”, putting him “about 2% lower than it needs to be” to hold out against independent Monique Ryan. In North Sydney, Trent Zimmerman could potentially lose to either independent Kylea Tink or Labor’s Catherine Renshaw; both parties’ polling suggests the Liberals are in “a losing position” in the Sydney seat of Reid and the Perth seats of Pearce and Swan; Boothby in Adelaide is “leaning strongly Labor’s way”; Hasluck in Perth and Bass in Tasmania are “tightening”, presumably to Labor’s advantage; and the Brisbane seats of Ryan and Brisbane are “at risk”, as is Casey on the fringes of Melbourne, which I haven’t heard mentioned before. Parramatta and Macquarie in Sydney “are currently looking like staying with Labor”. The government’s anti-China rhetoric is also said to have resulted in a “plunge” in Liberal support among the Chinese community, harming it in Chisholm and putting Bennelong in play for Labor. For all that, the Liberals “remain confident of winning Gilmore” and are “lineball” in Corangamite. They are also “hopeful of seizing McEwen”, although “Labor sources query this”.

• In contrast to the previous assessment, Greg Brown of The Australian reports Liberal sources are “increasingly confident” that Gladys Liu will retain Chisholm and “believe Labor is shifting resources towards Higgins, where incumbent MP Katie Allen’s primary vote has dropped to 42%”. However, Paul Sakkal of The Age reports Labor believes it will win Chisholm while also having a “serious chance” in Higgins, and will “probably” retain McEwen, Corangamite and Dunkley. Sakkal further reports that Anthony Albanese will appear with Daniel Andrews today, defying suggestions he is keeping his distance from the Premier, to announce a promised $2.2 billion in federal funding for the Suburban Rail Loop, a state government project opposed by the Morrison government. The initial stage of the project will cut a north-south path through the eastern suburbs that will run neatly through Chisholm.

• Contrary to Clive Palmer’s earlier position that the United Australia Party would direct preferences against all sitting members, The Guardian reports how-to-vote cards being distributed at pre-poll voting centres have Liberal incumbents ahead of Labor in Chisholm, Reid and Bass, and ahead of teal independents in Mackellar and Wentworth.

• Nine’s endeavour to rate audience response to Sunday night’s debate eventually settled on a tied result between Scott Morrison and Anthony Albanese, although this was based on an uncontrolled exercise open to anyone who get the website form to work. The overwhelming view was the combative nature of the debate did neither protagonist any favours. A third debate will be held tomorrow night on the Seven Network.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,363 comments on “Morgan: 54.5-45.5 to Labor”

Comments Page 1 of 28
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  1. What would the TPP have been for the Morgan poll had it not switched from respondent allocated preference flows?

  2. If Morgan is right about WA, the Lying Reactionaries will lose Swan, Pearce, Hasluck, Tangney, Moore, Canning and (possibly) Durack to Labor. They will almost certainly also lose Curtin to the rebel, Chaney. 8 seats to the better for justice, reason and redemption.

    If Morgan is right about SA, they will also lose Boothby and Sturt to Labor, while Grey would be close. 3 seats. In Victoria on Morgan’s estimates the Lying Reactionaries would lose Chisholm, Higgins, Casey, Deakin, La Trobe, Flinders, Monash and Menzies. It’s widely thought they will also likely lose Kooyong and Goldstein to the Lite. 10 seats.

    21 seats in 3 states.

    They also face historic losses in NSW, at least a partial Labor revival in QLD and a restoration of Labor representation in Tasmania.

    A day of fundamental reckoning for the Lying Reactionaries is approaching.

  3. Mr Mysterious says:
    Tuesday, May 10, 2022 at 4:22 am

    What would the TPP have been for the Morgan poll had it not switched from respondent allocated preference flows?

    You’d think it would be around 55.5/44.5….perhaps slightly more pronounced than that, but not greatly, as Morgan estimates the LRP remain in front in QLD.

  4. If there’s a word for the mood of the electorate it would be “sullen”. There’s no great excitement. There’s a grave decision being taken: voters are disaffiliating from the Reactionaries. They are not elated about it, but they are doing it. Voters have had enough of them.

  5. 31. That’s my expectation for the number of Representatives to be returned by the Lying Reactionary Parties after this election. It could be fewer than that. The decadent, the dysfunctional, the archaic and the crooked assembly is about to be dismantled by the people. Excellent.

  6. No More Liberals. That is the decision being taken this month. The Not-A-Lib plurality is huge. 2:1, or thereabouts.

  7. I think there is an interesting comparison to be made between the 2007 election and this one. In 2007 the electorate had had enough of Howard to the point he lost his seat (I have not seen any indication Morrison is likely to lose his this time around). Also, there was significant excitement in the electorate about Rudd (I can’t say the same about Albo’s support). To use Bludging words the electorate was elated about kicking Howard out and bringing Rudd in. That time the election tpp was 52.7 47.3 and the output was 83 seats for Labor to 60 for the Coalition. Do we really think Labor can do better than that this time?

  9. It certainly doesn’t feel like 2007 to me but the objective data points to a similar outcome at this stage.

    Hope everyone is well, not long now.

  11. Thanks ltep and good morning. 2007, 15 years ago! On election night I was playing in a band and missed the coverage. I only heard while lugging my guitar amp to the car the Rudd had won.

  13. An odd effort from the Murdoch tabloids today… have they given up?

    And what has happened to the yellow footer spruiking Palmer?

  14. Confessionssays:

    Tuesday, May 10, 2022 at 6:19 am

    I’ve said since the start this campaign feels like 2007. I haven’t changed my mind.

    It really has not felt anything like 07 to me. Back then I could feel that the electorate hope for a radical change. It felt like the end of an era and the start of a new one. This time around it feels more like people dislike Morrison and don’t hate Albo. BTW I am not saying that was my perception back then or now but the vibe I feel in the electorate

  15. After two years of the pandemic and a sense of being tossed on the wider seas of international affairs my 2c is that people are tired and jaded. In 2007, pre-GFC, the perception was that we were riding a boom and the future looked good; the sub-prime crisis wasn’t going to touch us. There was a sense of even better days ahead. The lucky country was staying lucky. I don’t think that that underpinning optimism is there to that extent now.

    It doesn’t mean there’s no appetite for change, but less space for enthusiasm, and it’s girt by local and world events. Perhaps this is the difference we are feeling.

  16. Bludging @ #4 Tuesday, May 10th, 2022 – 4:52 am

    If there’s a word for the mood of the electorate it would be “sullen”. There’s no great excitement. There’s a grave decision being taken: voters are disaffiliating from the Reactionaries. They are not elated about it, but they are doing it. Voters have had enough of them.

    This is the main theme I’m picking up from the good burghers in my district. They’ve had enough of the crony capitalism.
    To me it feels like the election where the Labor government were thrown out into the street for their lying, corruption and sexual exploits in the People’s House.

    Sound familiar?

  17. Despite the 5% swing towards the ALP in Qld, there’s still not enough to make much of a difference given Labor are coming off such a low base. This seems to be reflected consistently in most polls.

    We can hope for maybe a couple of seats but will rely on the rest of Australia for any real change. Hopefully a good term under Albo will till the soil up here and alter the dynamics.

  18. It’s feels like 1972, the Liberal Party arrogance, the Nationals(Country) party hanging on to their disproportionate representation and a Labor Party, having worked so hard against fear, corruption, misinformation and a biased MSM, about to be given the chance.
    The youth looking for change, the focus of war changing,( both unattainable in their existing guises), the China fear ramped up and women still to be unshackled by the liberals.
    The tentacles of the cesspit of corruption together with their fear mongering giving an air of hesitancy to change.
    The old “communist” drum beating replaced by the “green” drum beating to maintain the entrenched “born to rule”.
    The real challenge will be to rid the public service, the quasi government compromises and the press of their influence and guerilla tactics preventing the mechanisms of honest government.
    The pre 1972 conservatives feared the influence on of black and white TV!
    The post Morrison 2022 conservatives fear electric cars, solar and wind power together with tax reform and the use of transparency.
    The Albanese Labor government will provide the Renaissance of balance and fairness.
    Morrison will be gone “a preachin'” .
    The fight against greed and unfairness never stops.

  19. I think it’s more like 2013. The bats are out. Obviously those of us who prefer a side will feel differently about this election than that – I checked out. But I don’t think people wanted Abbott in so much as they wanted Labor out.

    The difference this time is that whereas Labor’s base continued to back them in that election, the Liberal’s base are stepping back. The idea that you can take over a representative party, take over a government and pursue policies that the electorate don’t approve of by the back door is shown as a sham – it might work once, but it doesn’t look like a stable or safe approach.

  20. Mortasun:

    When I say it feels like 2007 I mean the attitude from the media that SfM will pull a rabbit out of his hat, as was the expectation of Howard in 2004, despite the polling.

    What is different this time is the experience in 2019 when people assumed Labor would win but didn’t.

    I suspect a lot of people feel like me: sick of Morrison and this tired, do nothing govt, unable to watch or listen to them anymore, fed up with the useless media and the boring commentary. Campaigns are wholly performative and I suspect people are just fed up with it all.

  22. I suspect a lot of people feel like me: sick of Morrison and this tired, do nothing govt, unable to watch or listen to them anymore, fed up with the useless media and the boring commentary. Campaigns are wholly performative and I suspect people are just fed up with it all.

    Yes, people just want to turn the page after the tumult of the ATM years of the Coalition government. And the pandemic.

  23. 1996 to me.

    Keating was hated. Howard tolerated.

    All us ALP supporters kept hoping for the electorate to realise what a piece of crap Howard was.

    Never happened (not for 11 long years when he wrecked the joint).

  24. I think this election is less like 2007 than it is akin to 1996: a long-term government led by a guy who shits large portions of the electorate, and who secured an unexpected election win last time on the back of an over-ambitious policy agenda from the Opposition. In response to that loss, said Opposition turns to an old party hand, devoid of charisma, with a small target strategy, a safe and unspectacular option. Voters had been itching to turf out the government and this boring option gives them to the license to do so, not due to any enthusiasm for the alternative, but because of a deep dislike of the incumbent.

    A similar dynamic can be seen in other elections, like NSW 2007/2011, UK 1992/1997, and Federally 2004/2007.

  25. In good news, we QLD Labor supporters are enjoying the change vicariously through the other states. That’s where PB comes into its own.

  26. Felix,
    I also think the largely secular Australia doesn’t want to see Church and State become one. They’ve seen the lengths Scott Morrison and his fellow Pentecostalists, plus Dominic Perrottet and his fellow Conservative Catholics, are going to to try and make that happen, plus what’s going on overseas with hard won rights for women being overturned, and they are saying, no thank you!

  27. And tonight we’re going to party like it’s 2007…

    It doesn’t feel like 2007 to me,

    But then I’m 15 years older, 15 years grumpier, not going to work and dealing with lots of people every day.

  28. Cronus says:
    Tuesday, May 10, 2022 at 7:02 am
    Despite the 5% swing towards the ALP in Qld, there’s still not enough to make much of a difference given Labor are coming off such a low base. This seems to be reflected consistently in most polls.

    We can hope for maybe a couple of seats but will rely on the rest of Australia for any real change. Hopefully a good term under Albo will till the soil up here and alter the dynamics.
    —————
    Applying the State figures from those Morgan results (yes small samples and it’s Morgan, so caveats apply), NSW would make little contribution as well. Vic and WA would bring it home and throw in Boothby and maybe – we can dream – Sturt in SA. In Tas- the numbers are impressive from the tiny sample, but it’s a brave Bludger who’ll bet on Bass or Braddon (alliteration intended). A few Teal wins here and there on top of all that would make the LNP outcome look pretty ordinary though.

  31. ABC PM: First story on Hume Division was unable to find a labor voter. The word labor I did not hear.

    AA up at 7:30.

  32. Climate and housing are the number one priorities followed by corruption. I hope people’s consciousness is heavily focussed on this when they vote.

  33. Bluepill on the last thread says

    “No one has shown me a clear path net to the seats required… without an amount of wishful thinking or anecdotal ‘I saw people going in to vote so I must know’… sheesh. Even the post polls were wrong last time… how can you ALP diehards have a clue who someone just voted for??”

    I don’t recall anyone saying they knew who people are voting for at the pre polls. The closest I came to that was saying most people who came to my booth in BASS seemed to be decided voters because they declined HTVs from everyone. Don’t tell lies to make your case Bluepill- it just makes you look silly.

  34. Jaeger,
    Yes, Morrison was given the keys to the castle and all he did was raid the treasury and invite his dodgy mates in to lord it over us.

  35. Morgan delivering a 54.5% 2PP for the ALP? After changing their method to make their 2PP less biased to the ALP?

    Well, what can I say. At this exact point in time in the campaign, in 2019, in spite of using a method that was more favourable to the ALP, Morgan was just predicting a 51% 2PP for the ALP.

    Oh, and my impression is that Queensland may deliver a greater surprise in favour of the ALP than Morgan is predicting in this poll…. The 2 postal votes of hour household in the seat of Brisbane are about to be posted today:
    ALP 2 – 0 LNP

    🙂


  36. However, the pollster has switched from respondent-allocated preference to using the flows from 2019,

    What if respondent-allocated preference is the right way to go?

    My dream; Barnaby is leader of the opposition still lives on.

  37. Good morning Dawn Patrollers

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    Michael Koziol reports that, despite promising to put the major parties last, Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party has preferenced the Liberals second or third in many seats. Does that surprise anyone?
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    Cartoon Corner

    David Pope

    David Rowe

    Matt Golding




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    Fiona Katauskas

    Mark Knight

    John Shakespeare

    Andrew Dyson

    Simon Letch


    Spooner

    From the US














  39. As one of those bruised by 2019 I am still wary of being betrayed by hope. Hope though is the way to victory. Labor should for the rest of the campaign get back to the themes of the launch. Child care, aged care and health care. Don’t get distracted by, or dragged into, shouting matches and sideshow issues. The undecided voters want reasons to vote FOR someone. Let Morrison get angry and shouty, step back and pivot to what we need to improve. Keep the strong team front and centre too. The media hates it because it forces them away from the presidential style coverage they prefer. Labor shouldn’t be intimidated. The team is their great strength.

  41. More 1996 than 2007. But not the same. Morrison and corruption and the rise of the Teals provides 2022 with its own very special brew.

  42. Primary votes for Libs and Labs are going down over time?… The people are disaffected with current politics?…. Politicians are “corrupt”?…. Then vote for the parties that support a federal ICAC:
    ALP, Greens and Teal Independents!

    Being dissatisfied with politics as usual and then ending up voting for Hanson and Palmer, with second preference for the Liberals, Nationals or LNP is an obvious indication of Voter Moronism… Surely you would be offended to be called a Voting Moron, would you?…. Then vote as a Smart Voter…. 🙂

  43. Due to cost blow outs that 2.2 billion is like a drop in the ocean for the suburban rail loop.
    God knows what the final cost is going to be.

  44. Taylormade @ #43 Tuesday, May 10th, 2022 – 7:34 am

    Due to cost blow outs that 2.2 billion is like a drop in the ocean for the suburban rail loop.
    God knows what the final cost is going to be.

    At least there’ll be something to show for it. Unlike the BILLIONS given away to Coalition mates by the Morrison government.

  45. I was going to say this election feels like the one where we tossed out Joh over his corruption and arrogance, and there’s a little of that. But what this election feels like is tired. The last few years have been difficult. Fires. Floods. Plague. And Mr Morrison made no friends in his responses to any one of these, despite Australians being a forgiving lot on the whole. An occasional failure is forgivable, but incompetence is not. As a nation we’re tired, verging on fed up. More of the same is not what we want.

    I doubt this will be a landslide. Tiredness is too close to resignation, and Labor is not the only non-Coalition option. But I think Mr Morrison will be PM no more. (At a personal level I’m hoping he suffers as LOTO in impotent opposition.) And carrying that idea forward, Labor’s path will be governing with a slim margin and a confusion of independents, and expanding that margin at the following election at the expense of those independents.

  46. The Coalition are abusing the Caretaker Period conventions (eg Marise Payne not inviting Penny Wong to meet with the SI FM), and this makes the case a lay down misere:

    Mike Foley tells us that the Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet has been accused of interfering in public science agencies by claiming caretaker mode should delay the release of crucial data about coral bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/pm-s-department-cited-caretaker-mode-to-encourage-delay-of-coral-bleaching-report-20220509-p5ajsc.html

  47. ”An odd effort from the Murdoch tabloids today… have they given up?”

    Maybe Newscorp has decided to reset its attacks for the last part of the campaign, given that what they were doing wasn’t working.

  48. Re: “Karen Middleton of The Saturday Paper”…

    Well, just on the ground of those predictions we have:
    Coalition: -14 seats
    ALP: -3 seats
    Difference… Coalition: -11 seats.

    So, whether it’s national polls, state polls or seat-by-seat analysis, everything points to a clear Labor win. The only question remaining is the actual size of it, but the much commented “hung parliament” is more fantasy and wishful thinking than a reasonable prediction.

  49. Morrison really is the coyote trying desperately to eliminate Albo the roadrunner. But we know how that always ends up.

    Trailing Morrison to ‘turbocharge’ campaign
    In a bid to make up ground on Labor, the Coalition will ramp up its scare campaign on Anthony Albanese’s key policies and national security credentials. (Oz)

  50. I’m fed up to the eye balls with politics and fucking politicians.
    I’m on my way out in half an hour or so to cast a pre poll and for the first time in my voting life I’m going to take HTV cards and follow them, that includes the Senate where I usually vote below the line

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