YouGov MRP poll (part two): Labor 80 seats, Coalition 63, others 8

All revealed from the YouGov MRP poll that was teased yesterday, suggesting Labor is on track for a fairly comfortable parliamentary majority in its own right.

The Australian now has the full suite of projected seat results from the YouGov MRP (multi-level regression with post-stratification) poll, conducted April 14 to May 7 from a sample of 18,923. Usings its data to model results based on electorates’ demography, rather than just the relatively small number of respondents from a given electorate, it projects Labor to win a clear majority of 80 seats, with the Coalition to win 63, the Greens one and others seven.

Seats projected as Labor gains are Bennelong, Lindsay, Reid and Robertson in New South Wales, Chisholm and Higgins in Victoria, Brisbane in Queensland, Pearce and Swan in Western Australia, Boothby in South Australia, and Bass in Tasmania. However, some of these are 50-50 calls on two-party preferred that are identified as leaning fractionally to either side. This includes Bennelong and Lindsay, with Longman, Ryan and Sturt identified as remaining with the Coalition, and Corangamite as a potential Labor loss.

As noted in yesterday’s post, the model also projects Kooyong and Goldstein as teal independent gains from the Liberals, and for all existing cross-benchers to retain their seats. While Brisbane is listed as a clear Labor win, its near tie on the primary vote between Labor on 29% and the Greens on 28% suggests either could be the one to ride over the Liberal National Party on 36% with the preferences of the other.

Rolling its results into state totals produces the following:

• In New South Wales, Coalition 36.4% (down from 42.5% in 2019), Labor 37.7% (up from 34.6%), Greens 9.3% (up from 8.7%), United Australia Party 3.5% (up from 3.4%) and One Nation 4.6%.

• In Victoria, Coalition 34.7% (down from 38.6%), Labor 36.5% (down from 36.8%), Greens 12.1% (up from 11.9%), United Australia Party 4.5% (up from 3.6%) and One Nation 3.8%.

• In Queensland, Coalition 39.1% (down from 43.7%), Labor 29.7% (up from 26.7%), Greens 11.9% (up from 10.3%), United Australia Party 4.5% (up from 3.5%) and One Nation 8.8%.

• In Western Australia, Coalition 38.1% (down from 45.2%), Labor 35.7% (up from 29.8%), Greens 12.7% (up from 11.6%), United Australia Party 2.3% (up from 2.0%) and One Nation 5.3%.

• In South Australia, Coalition 35.7% (down from 40.8%), Labor 38.5% (up from 35.4%), Greens 10.0% (up from 9.6%), United Australia Party 3.2% (down from 4.3%) and One Nation 5.2%.

• In Tasmania, Coalition 30.6% (down from 34.6%), Labor 32.4% (down from 33.6%), Greens 10.2% (up from 10.1%), United Australia Party 2.2% (down from 4.8%) and One Nation 4.2%.

These numbers for the most part line up reasonably well with BludgerTrack, except in South Australia where BludgerTrack has both major parties quite a bit higher on the primary vote. The Labor numbers are also lower than in BludgerTrack from the five biggest states, ranging from a 0.7% difference in New South Wales to a 2.9% difference in Western Australia.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

989 comments on “YouGov MRP poll (part two): Labor 80 seats, Coalition 63, others 8”

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  2. Morrison on 7:30

    There’s your furniture saving Hail Mary writ large.
    Shame it will be Sales doing the prodding and not a Tingle skewering.

  3. About time scotty grew a pair. I’m sure Leigh will give him an easy run – wouldn’t want the tories losing too badly

  4. ParkySP,
    She’s no fool. She knows scomo’s toast. She’ll use the moment as one last horrah for her memory and let herself take place, rightfully or wrongly, along side Kerry O’Brien and Barrie Cassidy as retired ABC royalty.

  6. zoomster @ #725 Thursday, May 12th, 2022 – 6:31 pm

    OK, folks.

    I’m travelling down on Saturday morning to attend the sprinkling of lizzie/Zoe’s ashes.

    If you want to contribute a few words, I’ll collate them and read them out.

    No words as I hadn’t had the privilege of meeting or interacting with her, though from what I’ve read she sounded like an awesome person and a great contributor. Rest in peace lizzie/Zoe.

    Thank you Zoomster.

  7. Saw a SKY chat with Lambie, the darling of Tassie’s north saying its called being a god damned adult again. No she didn’t but she did say Braddon is likely to turn red and Bass is line ball depending on where the preferences go this time around. Issues: mostly cost of living and general mistrust of ALL politicians as blah blah blah experts with little substance.

    Gday Evan.

  8. Zoomster- thanks for passing on Lizzie messages: she was a calm, sensible and intelligent voice on this forum. I often think of her and regret that she’s not with us, especially at the moment. Fairness, social justice and protecting the natural world were key values for her. I’m sure she would be enjoying the prospect of a new government more aligned to those values.

  9. Sandman says:
    Thursday, May 12, 2022 at 10:30 pm
    Saw a SKY chat with Lambie, the darling of Tassie’s north saying its called being a god damned adult again. No she didn’t but she did say Braddon is likely to turn red and Bass is line ball depending on where the preferences go this time around
    ———
    Did I read that JLN is preferencing Archer in Bass (surprising and a bit disappointing if so, based on some of Lambie’s earlier statements about Archer).

  10. Leigh Sales should not be feted as hall of fame material. For me she has been a mindless talking head with no moral compass and the interview skills of Norman Gunston, now that was an interview.

    https://au.video.search.yahoo.com/search/video;_ylt=Awr1Sj6v_3xij7YX23o25gt.;_ylu=c2VjA3NlYXJjaAR2dGlkAw–;_ylc=X1MDMjExNDcwOTA0NgRfcgMyBGFjdG4DY2xrBGNzcmNwdmlkA3U4RngwVEV3TGpMTmpMY2ZZZmprX0FaOU5Ea3VNUUFBQUFEVWVqWmUEZnIDeWZwLXQtcwRmcjIDc2EtZ3AEZ3ByaWQDBG5fcnNsdAM1OQRuX3N1Z2cDMARvcmlnaW4DYXUudmlkZW8uc2VhcmNoLnlhaG9vLmNvbQRwb3MDMARwcXN0cgMEcHFzdHJsAwRxc3RybAMzNARxdWVyeQNub3JtYW4lMjBndW5zdG9uJTIwaW50ZXJ2aWV3cyUyMHBtBHRfc3RtcAMxNjUyMzU5MTE1?p=norman+gunston+interviews+pm&ei=UTF-8&fr2=p%3As%2Cv%3Av%2Cm%3Asa&fr=yfp-t-s#id=6&vid=ea845238208cea7430435eedd2c4f89e&action=view

  12. Zoomster,

    No doubt there will be many words for lizzie and thank you for reading them out on our behalf. Pollbludger was a better place with lizzie. Lizzie made many of us feel better and also be better. Please say “thank you” from me.

  13. C@tmommasays:
    Thursday, May 12, 2022 at 9:13 pm

    It’s certainly different this time to last as it seems as though that group of people that Labor have found it hard to get, being the ones that work very, very hard at 1 or 2 jobs and live harried lives as they strive to get ahead and keep their heads above water, that the Liberals have had a lock on for the last 2 or 3 elections, seem to have shifted across into our column.
    _____________________
    Only a temporary shift I think.
    3 years under Labor was more than enough last time.

  14. ”
    Bludgingsays:
    Thursday, May 12, 2022 at 7:58 pm
    Zoomster….

    My impressions of “lizzie” over many years were that she was very kind and true to herself.

    It was clear that she had a great love for her partner in her latter years and that they shared a profound passion for nature, especially for native birds.

    She spoke up to defend the natural environment, and, just as strongly, to defend her beliefs in social justice, in political struggle, in equality and to express her solidarity with other women. I admired her for this. I also noticed and admired her willingness to defend the truth. She had a good eye for dissembling and for the half truth, and would allow neither to pass unchecked.

    In speaking, of course while she was invariably straight in what she said, she was not given to anger or insult. She showed calmness, tenderness, restraint and decency. Anyone who looked could see she was made of these things.

    She was also very obviously and memorably a brave woman – a physically brave woman – who had to contend with illness, with pain and with immobility. She handled this without complaint, and was an example that won’t be forgotten.

    I will miss “lizzie”, the kindest bludger.
    ”

    Bludging
    As I posted previously you are not a peasant.
    +1

  15. No one actually believes 25% are actually undecided, lol.

    It’s ANOTHER deliberate media misinterpretation people are buying (innocent/in search of panic points/trolling), of a data point reflective of whether a vote is locked versus actually undecided.

  16. Taylormade says:
    Thursday, May 12, 2022 at 10:44 pm

    C@tmommasays:
    Thursday, May 12, 2022 at 9:13 pm

    It’s certainly different this time to last as it seems as though that group of people that Labor have found it hard to get, being the ones that work very, very hard at 1 or 2 jobs and live harried lives as they strive to get ahead and keep their heads above water, that the Liberals have had a lock on for the last 2 or 3 elections, seem to have shifted across into our column.
    _____________________
    Only a temporary shift I think.
    3 years under Labor was more than enough last time
    中华人民共和国
    In your dreams cobber. The Tories are heading for an existential crisis. They are being eaten alive by One Nation, UAP and now the Teals. They don’t know if they are Arthur or Martha.

    Rudd made the right call today to bell the cat on the Murdoch media. Once that issue is tackled (and it must) the scales will fall from the eyes of so many who have been fed a constant stream of lies.

  17. Z,

    I had the privilege to meet Lizzie a couple of years ago just after the Covid break out.

    She seemed to be having a few issues with groceries and running out of jig saw puzzles to do . So, my wife and I ventured up to her Don Valley property to see if she needed assistance. We brought a few groceries, half a dozen puzzles and a six pack of toilet paper.

    I found her a self assured person with a clear understanding of who she was that day and matter of fact about what she had done and achieved in her life. She was the quintessential English belle that had survived the second world war and outlived a couple of husbands. Very similar to my own mother.

    She told me she liked my posts on PB as I was one of the more sensible contributors. I told her she was part of the soul of PB. We left it at that.

    I am not sure if that helps any one else on PB. But, I found her a very nice person.

  18. Have no idea what to say on Lizzie other than I liked her.
    Opposite sides in regards to Andrews but she would often comment if I posted anything. Especially anything non-political, as she seemed genuinely interested in all the different types on people on PB, thier background and where they were from. Regardless of what party they supported.

  19. Upnorth @ #966 Thursday, May 12th, 2022 – 10:55 pm

    Once that issue is tackled (and it must) the scales will fall from the eyes of so many who have been fed a constant stream of lies.

    And with that, the death of the LNP as we know it.

    I can foresee, without Murdoch muddying the political waters with toxic waste, the ALP replacing the LNP as the centre-right major party, and the Greens taking up the vaccum created by the ALP on the left side, with perhaps a handful of independents and minor parties for the balance.

  20. Interesting that the “rivers of gold” WA Budget surplus is courtesy of China, that place the Federal government wants to declare War on

    It is also interest that, in regards the infrastructure spend, there is a sinking fund acknowledging the difficult procurement environment is leading to cost overruns on those projects

    So a recognition of transacting business in the World of a Pandemic

    Yet, in Victoria, we have the Opposition attempting to make political gain from what is a worldwide occurrence

    There is also spending on health, replicating Victoria and also referencing the impact of the Pandemic on the health system

    In this space, the government has cautioned that the fix will take time, not an overnight fix

    Again noting the criticism of the Victorian Opposition

    Perhaps, just perhaps, the Victorian Opposition could read the caveats in the WA Budget and the reasons for them – and live in the real World, the World of a Pandemic

    Public Servant wage rises are 2.5%, noting the projection of easing inflation to 4% then trending down

    There is an impressive group of Labor State Premiers around the Nation, all sitting on landslide results for a reason

    And they will welcome a supportive Federal Labor government, as they have all made plain

    Now it is up to the Australian population to deliver!!!

    I note that the DJIA Futures are down and trending further down as are the ASX Futures, now comfortably under the 7,000 mark

    The AUD 10 Year Bond Yield is at 3.35%, so perhaps some hope

    The USD 10 Year Bond Yield remains around the 3% mark

    China is central with Shanghai the focus courtesy of the lockdown

  21. Re meeting pollies…

    I met Tony Abbott once. It was at the Maleny Folk Festival in 1995 (I think). It was just before he won Warringah. I toweled him up in a debate on the republic issue. He was defending a pretty much indefensible position so it wasn’t that hard to land some punches. But to his credit, he came up to me after the debate, introduced himself and said well done. I think he enjoyed the battle.

    Tonight I went to our local meet the candidates night. Sarah Richards was the local Lib candidate. Although she rolled out the usual Lib talking points on the major issues and ran the usual old attack lines on Labor like, you can’t trust Labor on managing the economy etc. I thought she did quite well in her delivery and at times showed some humility in admitting that her side didn’t always get things right.

    But Susan Templeman overall delivered the more comprehensive answers and was better at making connections with people in the room and their local issues.

  22. Greensborough Growlersays:
    Thursday, May 12, 2022 at 11:00 pm
    _____________________
    One of your better posts GG.
    Now you just have to get things sorted with Mavis.

  23. Lizzie was a gentle presence on PB. She spoke her mind calmly and clearly without attacking other posters. I miss her posts here.

  24. Leigh Sayles is totally lightweight in my opinion, Sarah Ferguson will be a vast improvement at 7.30.
    Rudd is totally right about the Murdoch people, just another wing of the Liberal Party, Sam Maiden and Greg Sheridan are perhaps their only competent journos, and on the other hand there is the Aussie Sean Hannity, Paul Murray, who Morrison loves cosying up to

  25. Taylormade says:
    Thursday, May 12, 2022 at 11:03 pm

    Have no idea what to say on Lizzie other than I liked her.
    Opposite sides in regards to Andrews but she would often comment if I posted anything. Especially anything non-political, as she seemed genuinely interested in all the different types on people on PB, thier background and where they were from. Regardless of what party they supported.
    中华人民共和国
    As should we all. William has given us a great gift with this forum and I too followed Lizzie but due to work commitments have not posted much over the years.

    We are terribly lucky to be Australians’, enjoying the privilege of voting and probably changing Government without violence. You are the other side to me Taylormade and I know how you will probably feel next weekend – it’s horrible.

    But you are an Australian and I will fight tooth and nail for your right to disagree with me. Lizzie would have listened and reasoned, she would have been interested.

    Lizzie was indeed the “Better Angel of our Nature”

    All cobbers keep safe.

  27. ”No one actually believes 25% are actually undecided, lol.

    It’s ANOTHER deliberate media misinterpretation people are buying (innocent/in search of panic points/trolling), of a data point reflective of whether a vote is locked versus actually undecided.”

    It’s a bit like sport, the media wants people to think that all contests are close. It gets higher ratings.

    I also think that some “undecideds” might be rusted-ons who consider switching sides but when they actually vote return to the fold. Other “undecideds” might be simply being polite instead of telling the person asking them how they’re going to vote that it’s none of their business.

  28. This is for Bluey

    “Labor has promised to boost protection for the Great Barrier Reef with $194.5 million in funding set aside for coral protection programs.

    The announcement – a $30 million increase on the $163m package the ALP pledged back in January – comes just two days after a dramatic new report on the health of the reef was released.

    The Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority (GBRMPA) Reef Snapshot report, released on Tuesday evening, found recent marine heatwaves had a dramatic impact, with coral bleaching now clearly evident from the air in 91 per cent of monitored reefs.

    Labor said with its new funding package, total investment in the reef would now come to $1.2 billion between now and 2030.

    Among other measures, Labor said it would “continue and double” funding for the Reef 2050 plan, which is due to end in mid 2023.

    The funding package also includes a boost to crown of thorn starfish culling programs, and money for a research project into the development of thermal resistant corals at the Australian Institute of Marine Science.”

    https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/national/federal-election/labor-promises-funding-boost-for-great-barrier-reef/news-story/de488f2dbb52ab8436448fce13f30cc7?amp

  31. Using a simple calculation for the Labor 2pp of Labor primary + Green primary multiplied by 0.8 + UAP PHON primary multiplied by 0.35 + others multiplied by 0.6 I get the state breakdowns from that big yougov pole

    NSW
    LABOR 53.1 COALITION 46.9
    VIC
    LABOR 54.2 COALITION 45.8
    QLD
    LABOR 47.5 COALITION 52.5
    SA
    LABOR 53.9 COALITION 46.1
    WA
    LABOR 52.0 COALITION 48.0

  34. “I have seen strange things in my time, but this has got to be one of the most batshit crazy things a major political party has produced.”

    that was remarkably bizarre. 🙁 Whoever is running the Liberal add campaign is not really covering themselves in glory.

  35. BSF & imacca

    So, now we’re going to have to assign Lord of the Rings characters to federal pollies?

    Who gets to be Galadriel (Cate Blanchett)?

  36. How lovely to check in and read the tributes to Lizzie.
    Surprisingly brought a lump to my throat and proved what a fabulous place this can be.
    GG, my initial impression of you years ago was of a ‘Scarface claw, the toughest Tom in town’ but your post today shows a generous soft side.
    Bludging too, beautifully said.
    I never met Lizzie, but like KayJay, her calm wisdom stays with me.
    Vale Lizzie.

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