Move it or lose it

As privately conducted seat polling continues to fly thick and fast, a series of disputes have developed over whether election candidates really live where they claim.

Three items of seat polling intelligence emerged over the weekend, none of which I’d stake my house on:

• Samantha Maiden of news.com.au reports a uComms poll of 831 respondents for GetUp! shows independent Zoe Daniel leading Liberal member Tim Wilson in Goldstein by 59-41 on two-candidate preferred and 35.3% to 34.0% on the primary vote, with Labor on 12.5%, the Greens on 8.9% and an undecided component accounting for 4.6%. It should be noted that the campaigns are clearly expecting a closer result, and that uComms is peculiarly persisting with a weighting frame based entirely on age and gender, which was common enough before 2019 but has generally been deemed insufficient since.

• Andrew Clennell of Sky News yesterday related polling conducted for the Industry Association of 800 respondents per seat showed Liberals incumbents trailing 58-42 in Robertson and 53-47 in Reid, and Labor leading by 56-44 in Parramatta and 54-46 in Gilmore, both of which the Liberals hope to win, and 57-43 in Shortland, which has never looked in prospect. The polling provided better news for the Coalition in showing the Liberals with a 57-43 lead in Lindsay and the Nationals trailing by just 51-49 in Labor-held Hunter. Clennell further related that “similar polling conducted earlier in the campaign also shows the government behind in Bennelong and Banks”. A fair degree of caution is due here as well: no indication is provided as to who conducted the polling, and its overall tenor seems rather too rosy for Labor.

• By contrast, local newspaper the North Sydney Sun has detailed results for North Sydney from Compass Polling, an outfit hitherto noted for polling conducted for conservative concerns that has then been used to push various lines in The Australian, which suggests independent Kylea Tink is running fourth and the threat Liberal member Trent Zimmerman faces is in fact from Labor’s Catherine Renshaw. The poll has Zimmerman on 34.9%, Renshaw on 25.0% and Tink on 12.4%, with Greens candidate Heather Armstrong on 15.0%. The online poll was conducted on May 6 from a sample of 507.

Speaking of staking houses, a fair bit of the electorate-level noise of the late campaign has related to where candidates claim to live for purposes of their electoral enrolment. The ball got ralling when The Australian reported that Vivian Lobo, the Liberal National Party candidate for the marginal Labor-held seat of Lilley in Brisbane, appeared not to live within the electorate at Everton Park as claimed on his enrolment. Labor’s demand that Lobo be disendorsed – always a challenging prospect after the close of nominations – was complicated on Saturday when Labor’s star candidate for Parramatta, Andrew Charlton, blamed an “oversight” for his enrolment at a Woollahra rental property owned by his wife a month after they moved to the electorate he hopes to represent.

The Liberals have naturally sought to maximise Labor’s embarrassment, with the Daily Mail quoting one over-excited party spokesperson calling on Labor to refer Charlton to the Australian Federal Police, as Lobo had been by the Australian Electoral Commission. But as the AEC’s media statement on the issue noted, Lobo has actively identified the Everton Park property as his residential address on his enrolment and nomination forms, potentially putting him in the frame for providing false or misleading information to a Commonwealth officer, punishable by a maximum 12 months’ imprisonment and $12,600 fine.

By contrast, Charlton’s is a sin of omission: failing to update his enrolment within the prescribed one month time frame after changing address, punishable only by a fine of $222 and in practice hardly ever enforced. There remains the question of why he was enrolled in Woollahra rather than at the Bellevue Hill property where he and his wife were living before their recent move to North Parramatta, but it’s difficult to see what ulterior motive might have been in play.

Now a new front has opened in the seat of McEwen on Melbourne’s northern fringe, where the Liberals are hopeful of unseating Labor member Rob Mitchell. Sumeyya Ilanbey of The Age reports today that Labor has asked the AEC to investigate Liberal candidate Richard Welch, who lives 50 kilometres from the electorate in the Melbourne suburb of Viewbank but listed an address in Wallan on his nomination form. Welch claims he had been living separately from his family in Wallan at the time of his nomination, but moved to his own property in Viewbank just days later after his landlord sold the house and terminated the lease.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,514 comments on “Move it or lose it”

Comments Page 1 of 31
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  1. When’s the next poll expected to drop WB? By the way, the phone poll was Redbridge, I’m in the safe seat of Barton, what gives?

  2. There appears to be enough opinion in the community that the existing bum has a hole in it and we are going to get a new one!

  4. The polls appear to show the Lying Reactionaries at risk of losing to the Lite or to Labor most of their currently held seats in Sydney, including Hughes, Banks, Wentworth, Bennelong, North Sydney, Reid and MacKellar, while nearby Robertson and the northerly Cowper have also been mentioned as likely or possible losses. 9 seats. Were the Lying Reactionaries to lose these NSW seats, you’d think it would be very difficult for them to form even a minority government.

    If these seats were lost, the Lying Reactionaries would be reduced to Lindsay, Mitchell, Bradfield, Berowra, Farrer, Hume (7, held by the Liberals) and Riverina, Calare, Parkes, New England, Lyne and Page (6, National-held). So 13 out of 47 in total in NSW.

  5. In Victoria the following seats have been pegged as possible losses by the LRP: Nicholls, Wannon, Casey, La Trobe, Finders, Goldstein, Higgins, Kooyong, Chisholm and Deakin. 10 seats. Were this to occur the LRP would be reduced to just 2 metropolitan seats and 3 rural seats in Victoria.

  6. “ do you seriously expect the Liberals would voluntarily follow a convention if it wasn’t in their best interest?”

    Something from the other thread. As much as people like to paint the Coalition as being completely evil, I do actually think there is a line even they wouldn’t cross. So it would depend on what conventions you were talking about and the mood at the time. The same would go for Labor of course, who are not above politics in the moment.

    After all, we still have not seen any reflection or admission of being wrong from all the split election conspiracy theorists when it was clear to any objective person that Morrison was not going to go for split elections.

  8. Meanwhile, the LRP can likely expect to lose their Tasmanian seats, Bass and Braddon, and both Sturt and Boothby in SA, and to retain only Barker and Grey (and not necessarily both of these). 2 seats.

    Their prospects seem to have improved in WA, where their losses will be confined to Swan and Pearce (to Labor) and Curtin (to the Lite), and they will hold on in Hasluck, Tangney, Canning, Moore, Forrest, O’Connor and Durack. 7 seats.

    In Queensland, in the absence of a more electorally fatal swing than seems likely, the LRP are possibly at risk in regional Leichardt and Flynn, and maybe the metro seats of Longman, Dickson, Petrie, Brisbane and Ryan. 7 seats in QLD lost. 16 retained.

    The LRP appear unlikely to collect anything in the Territories.

    So the prospects for them are they will be reduced to:

    NSW 13 seats
    Victoria 5 seats
    WA, SA, Tasmania and the Territories 9 seats
    QLD 16 seats

    Total 43 seats

    That would be an impressive defeat. I think the result will turn out to be something close to that. Maybe they can eke out wins in 6 or 7 seats otherwise pegged as likely losses and finish with 50 seats.

  9. Mick Quinlivan says:
    Monday, May 16, 2022 at 4:30 am
    Budging… if such a result occurred in.nsw no way would they retain. LINDSAY. also who would win Wanon?

    There’s said to be a strong Lite/Indy candidate in Wannon…maybe this is too optimistic!

  11. I’m in Wannon, Alex Dyson is the indep.

    He got noticed on insiders last election when he jumped off the breakwater.

    This year he is more forward thinking, working with clamate200, he has 500,000 social media views, he’s a bit of a funny guy, was on triple-J.

    He did his tour around the electorate pretty early, actually did very well by my estimate, better than a normal Labor campaign. But I guess you have to as an ind because you don’t have the brand value of the majors.

    The Labor candidate is said to be good bloke apparently Bill Shorten came to his campaign launch last week, he is strong with unions, but he is from 2nd biggest city, Portland, which is a bit of a handicap as you lose a bit of he vote from Warrnambool.
    (Alex is from Warrnambool)

    Dan Tehan preferred Alex last, even with phon, uap and another crazy running along with usual.

    Dan has been working harder than he normally does, people have noticed him smiling a lot, and speaking more clearly.

    Thing is Alex will get mostly young voters, across the board (last time 40% of his pref where redist to libs), but he won’t get olders voters, they are rusted on libs.

    Alex could get 20%, so more than the greens who will be about 5-7%, they preference him first, which he will need to get above ALP which I expect will be 25-30%

    Libs usually win on primaries here, worst I can image Dan getting is 45%.

    Alex will have a better chance than ALP to knock off Dan, but its a long shot, it requires a series of events to go right and Dan to be left stranded just short with no pref flows.

  14. SKY NEWS Sharri Markson tried to paint Albanese as anti Israel based on statements he made back in 2018 and adding BS claims to it. Like saying he was in a bank on Friday and therefore he intended to rob it. Markson has stopped her daily hatchet job of Richard Marles being a Manchurian Candidate for just a day to trot out this amazing investigate journalism report inside the last week of the campaign.

    https://www.skynews.com.au/opinion/sharri-markson/albaneses-comments-about-israel-dont-reflect-the-mainstream-view-sharma/video/3fe6faf1d67d5da10236b337c31b274f

    Really, no one is going to care except Dave Sharma trying to save his butt from a Teal.

  15. Minjee Lee returned to her winning ways by taking the LPGA event in New Jersey on Sunday.

    But as usual, our footy-addled sports media will probably ignore her world-class performance, as they do with our young elite male golfers.

  16. But the challenge to the Liberals has not just come from outside. The independents have inflamed internal tensions between rival factions within the party.

    Last week, New South Wales Treasurer and moderate faction powerbroker Matt Kean weighed in.

    “We’ve seen the impact of what happens when centre-right parties lose moderate voices,” he said at a press conference while standing next to Mr Sharma.

    “Look at the Republican Party [in the US] … [it’s] now become the party of Trump, the party of Putin sympathisers and anti-vaxxers.”

    Mr Kean then appealed to voters, saying that was why the party needed to keep moderate voices like Dave Sharma’s.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-16/wentworth-indepenent-allegra-spender-liberal-dave-sharma/101066524

    The problem is partly keeping moderate voices, but largely what those moderate voices do once they’re in the partyroom. Past history shows they usually just roll over and keep voting with the status quo – or with Barnaby Joyce and the Nationals as Spender and Steggall keep reminding voters.

    It’s not until they’re under threat of losing their seats that they finally find their moderate voice and by then for voters, it’s too little, too late.

  17. Good morning all, I am a total mug when it comes to predictions of election results, much greater minds than me here on that score.
    Last night I watched some of Albo’s rally in Brisbane, pretty stirring stuff.

  18. Sandman says:
    Monday, May 16, 2022 at 6:10 am
    SKY NEWS Sharri Markson tried to paint Albanese as anti Israel based on statements he made back in 2018 and adding BS claims to it.
    ——————————
    Like her propaganda against Richard Marles which fell flat , no one really takes notice of newsltd propagandist Sharri Markson

  19. The same newsltd hacks who said trump would win over 300 seats in the U.S election when it was clear Biden won it , are the same ones who claim the lib/nats are close

  21. I am not sure News Corporation bothers to deny its bias these days. But could this be the election in which the impotence of its skewed reporting is exposed?

    Some of the content in News Corporation tabloids has read like political advertising for the Coalition.

    There was the multi-page spread in the Herald Sun which read like a paid advertisement for Treasurer Josh Frydenberg in his contest against independent candidate Monique Ryan. The headline was not subtle: “Why you need to vote for me”.

    And on Friday many of the state-based News Corp tabloids ran a story asking the “teal” independents about their policies on “China’s advance in the Pacific, changes to income tax, defence spending and transgender athletes”.

    Fair enough. They are, after all, asking for votes. But the spin in the way it was written was enough to take this old-school journalist’s breath away.

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/could-this-be-the-election-in-which-news-corp-s-impotence-is-exposed-20220515-p5alev.html

    If the US is any guide, News Ltd will just get worse, not better. Just look at Fox News to see how far our local Rupertariat has to fall.

  22. I guess that Morrison’s latest plan sacrificing long term financial security through superannuation is at least consistent with his short term transactional approach to politics. He is economically , socially and politically incompetent, a blight on our nation. His departure will not be mourned.

  23. Fess

    I’ve long believed that Newscorp is just an apologist for the Coalition. Most articles are merely advertisements dressed up as journalism and the election has simply proven that point. In terms of information or education, Newscorp is a disaster for Australian freedom.

  24. Sam Kerr and Hayley Raso scored goals on opposing sides in the FA cup final before 50,000 at Wembley.

    Reminder of where Australian women’s football should be rather than is under current coaching/management

  25. I live in North Sydney and am very skeptical at the polling putting Kylea Tink fourth. She has a very well oiled campaign underway here. Her volunteers alone would make up at 12.5% of the electorate, I reckon. Markson is a great labor candidate though. I just think it’s unlikely the ALP could muster a winning vote in this conservative area.

  26. ltep @ #6 Monday, May 16th, 2022 – 4:15 am

    “ do you seriously expect the Liberals would voluntarily follow a convention if it wasn’t in their best interest?”

    Something from the other thread. As much as people like to paint the Coalition as being completely evil, I do actually think there is a line even they wouldn’t cross. So it would depend on what conventions you were talking about and the mood at the time. The same would go for Labor of course, who are not above politics in the moment.

    After all, we still have not seen any reflection or admission of being wrong from all the split election conspiracy theorists when it was clear to any objective person that Morrison was not going to go for split elections.

    There is no parliamentary convention about split elections. It was not uncommon until Hawke called an early election during his tenure to bring the Reps and Senate into alignment. It’s just been politically expedience since then to not have split elections since then for fear of voter antipathy to doing their minimal civic duty more than once in 3 years.

  27. Murdoch tabloids rightly reflecting on the sad death of Andrew Symonds.

    Still no Kill Albo hysteria, and Yellow Clive Palmer has gone missing.

  29. Cronus @ #23 Monday, May 16th, 2022 – 6:57 am

    Fess

    I’ve long believed that Newscorp is just an apologist for the Coalition. Most articles are merely advertisements dressed up as journalism and the election has simply proven that point. In terms of information or education, Newscorp is a disaster for Australian freedom.

    Yep, the best thing that could happen for our democracy is the collapse of News Ltd.

  30. Bludging says:
    Monday, May 16, 2022 at 4:10 am
    In Victoria the following seats have been pegged as possible losses by the LRP: Nicholls, Wannon, Casey, La Trobe, Finders, Goldstein, Higgins, Kooyong, Chisholm and Deakin. 10 seats. Were this to occur the LRP would be reduced to just 2 metropolitan seats and 3 rural seats in Victoria.
    —
    Love your optimism, but the Libs won’t likely lose even half of those listed.

  34. Good morning Dawn Patrollers

    Sean Kelly reckons that Albanese has now got it right after hid 5.1% “Absolutely” remark. He also looks at Morrison being a “bulldozer”, saying the only time the bulldozer has been in operation is to stop things happening.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/after-labouring-the-point-albanese-finally-gets-his-story-straight-20220514-p5alcs.html
    David Crowe, in this assessment of yesterday’s Coalition campaign launch, says it was consciously reactive to the central accusation from Albanese that Morrison has no plan for the future and is asking voters to give the Liberals and Nationals a second decade in power after three terms in government.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/scott-morrison-repositions-himself-with-positive-pitch-to-younger-voters-as-campaign-enters-the-final-week-20220515-p5alhu.html
    James Massola tells us about an interview yesterday where Anthony Albanese laid out an ambitious two-term strategy to roll out universal childcare, add superannuation to paid parental leave, expand the scheme and potentially hold a royal commission into the management of the pandemic. He also said he wanted to “change the way that politics operates in this country” by avoiding soundbites and “actually answering questions”.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/albanese-reveals-two-term-strategy-if-labor-wins-20220515-p5alg9.html
    I’ll get out of your lives, promises Morrison. Just re-elect me first, writes Jacqui Maley.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/i-ll-get-out-of-your-lives-promises-morrison-just-re-elect-me-first-20220515-p5ali3.html
    David Crowe and Stephanie Peatling (haven’t see her for a while) report that Scott Morrison has picked a policy brawl with Labor to shape the final week of the election campaign by unveiling plans to allow first home buyers to withdraw up to $50,000 from their superannuation to get into the property market.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/first-home-buyers-could-use-superannuation-under-coalition-government-20220515-p5alh3.html
    Phil Coorey writes that Scott Morrison has set up a contest over housing affordability with Labor and the superannuation industry just six days out from the election, by announcing homebuyers will be able to use up to $50,000 each from their super account to get into the market.
    https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/pm-takes-on-labor-super-funds-with-housing-pitch-20220515-p5alfy
    Super for houses is a bad policy, but Scott Morrison wants to pick a fight over it says Katherine Murphy.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/may/15/super-for-houses-is-a-bad-policy-but-scott-morrison-wants-to-pick-a-fight-over-it
    The AFR’s editorial concludes with, “Drawing on superannuation may help more self-reliant young people get into the housing market, but it falls far short of fixing the tax, pension and regulatory distortions that have made affordable home ownership a receding dream for younger generations.”
    https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/housing-gimmicks-won-t-make-the-australian-dream-affordable-20220512-p5akul
    Scott Morrison is running out of time to turn an electoral tide that’s carrying the Coalition out to sea. His new housing policy is one Labor can’t copy, writes Jennifer Hewett.
    https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/morrison-launches-his-own-rescue-plan-20220515-p5algt
    “Coming to a Saturday auction near you – first time buyers with an extra $50,000 in their pockets that will push up prices and make housing more unaffordable”, says Shane Wright.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/another-housing-solution-that-will-drive-up-prices-20220515-p5alha.html
    If the polls are right, he may soon be the next Australian prime minister. So, who is Anthony Albanese, explores Paul Strangio.
    https://theconversation.com/if-the-polls-are-right-he-may-soon-be-the-next-australian-prime-minister-so-who-is-anthony-albanese-177617
    Michelle Grattan looks at what makes Scott Morrison tick and suggests his beating heart is a focus group.
    https://theconversation.com/his-beating-heart-is-a-focus-group-what-makes-scott-morrison-tick-182940
    “Could this be the election in which News Corp’s impotence is exposed?”, asks Margaret Simons who doesn’t hold back in her criticism.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/could-this-be-the-election-in-which-news-corp-s-impotence-is-exposed-20220515-p5alev.html
    Morrison dislikes any one and any thing he can’t control. It is very fortunate for him that News Corp’s hatreds, prejudices, intolerances and racism correspond to his own including the worship of money, writes Bruce Haigh who says Morrison loathes foreigners and foreign policy.
    https://johnmenadue.com/morrison-loathes-foreigners-and-foreign-policy/
    From The Australian. “As the seemingly endless six-week election campaign drags into its final days, relations have become decidedly frosty between two Canberra press gallery leaders, Nine’s Chris Uhlmann and The Guardian’s political editor Katharine “Murpharoo” Murphy. Any pretence of civility between two of the press gallery’s best-known members disintegrated last week, after Murphy fired off an insult-riddled 1000-word opinion piece, which eviscerated Nine’s Sunday night ‘Great Debate’ under the 60 Minutes banner.”
    https://amp.theaustralian.com.au/business/media/chris-uhlmann-vs-katharine-murphy-canberras-latest-feud/news-story/0f6fcca5ddbd610159df9a5ba2615751
    The fight for the Liberals’ future will be vicious if the Morrison Government is defeated this coming Saturday, says Andrew Bolt.
    https://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/opinion/andrew-bolt/andrew-bolt-fight-for-libs-future-will-be-vicious-if-morrison-is-defeated/news-story/a3e4439fd518d37b68afcbe8aa0bbece?amp
    In the final, frenzied days of political campaigning all over Australia, Lee Duffield protests the “phony war” of insults used to attack Anthony Albanese and economic management.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/morrisons-economic-trash-talking-is-out-of-order,16356
    The Age’s editorial declares that Labor’s climate policy easily beats Coalition’s.
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/labor-s-climate-policy-easily-beats-coalition-s-20220514-p5alb7.html
    An unholy alliance of carbon farmers and Big Gas lobbyists are quietly shaping Australia’s emissions reduction framework to maximise their take of taxpayer money while increasing emissions as much as possible. Callum Foote follows the money.
    https://michaelwest.com.au/grant-king-and-the-big-gas-con-how-fossil-fuel-giants-are-cheating-australias-emissions-system/
    Robert Glasser is concerned that political leaders are ignoring the biggest threat to our national security, climate change.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/political-leaders-ignoring-the-biggest-threat-to-our-national-security-20220429-p5ah6s.html
    Our governments should be ashamed of decades of neglect in scaling back carbon and methane emissions. In the upcoming Federal Election, we must vote to erode monopoly politics, writes Gerry Georgatos.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/independents-may-be-our-only-shot-at-helping-the-environment,16350
    No, Mr Morrison. Minority government need not create ‘chaos’ – it might finally drag Australia to a responsible climate policy, argues Kate Crowley.
    https://theconversation.com/no-mr-morrison-minority-government-need-not-create-chaos-it-might-finally-drag-australia-to-a-responsible-climate-policy-181706
    The business community risks shooting itself in the foot by opposing wage increases, writes Ross Gittins who destroys some of their arguments.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/corporate-chiefs-should-back-wage-hikes-because-cheating-customers-ain-t-smart-business-20220515-p5algp.html
    Bruce Wolpe praises the enduring bipartisan relationship between Australia and the US and looks at the relationship that Noden and Albanese might have. A good read.
    https://johnmenadue.com/so-who-does-the-white-house-want-to-win-the-election/
    Justine Toh asks, “Is an Australian PM our pastor-in-chief?”
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/7738611/is-an-australian-pm-our-pastor-in-chief/?cs=14258
    The decade-long uncertainty meted out to men, women and children who sought to come to Australia by boat has left them unable to pursue meaningful futures, writes Bianca Hall who says that for 19,000 people, this election could open the door to life.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/for-19-000-people-this-election-could-open-the-door-to-life-20220427-p5aghz.html
    Travers McLeod argues that poverty is a policy choice,
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/make-no-mistake-poverty-is-a-policy-choice-20220515-p5aley.html
    Without radical reform, the prognosis for our health system is grim, argues surgeon Dr Neela Janakiramanan.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/without-radical-reform-the-prognosis-for-our-health-system-is-grim-20220514-p5ald1.html
    Charles Maskell-Knight laments the erosion of Medicare.
    https://johnmenadue.com/charles-maskell-knight-the-erosion-of-medicare/
    Widening inequity in access to health care is curable but it may take the Teal Independents to write the script, opines Graeme Stewart.
    https://johnmenadue.com/widening-inequity-in-access-to-health-care-is-curable-but-it-may-take-the-teal-independents-to-write-the-script/
    Investigative journalists and publishing executives have warned a court order compelling a major media company to hand over documents before publication would have a chilling long-term effect on freedom of the press unless overturned, writes Zoe Samios.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/extraordinary-and-unprecedented-court-order-could-have-chilling-effect-on-journalism-20220515-p5ali5.html
    More from Samios who reports that the ABC is considering replacing its complaints handling system with an internal ombudsman that would report findings to the board after a lengthy review found there could be improvements made to the way it handles concerns from the public.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/abc-board-told-to-appoint-complaints-ombudsman-20220513-p5al4g.html
    Caitlin Fitzsimmons wonders where the women’s rage of has 2021 gone.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/where-has-the-women-s-rage-of-2021-gone-20220511-p5ake7.html
    A lower-house candidate for Pauline Hanson’s One Nation, who is linked to anti-vaccination protests, has been arrested near Parliament House. Lucia Grant, a teacher, is the party’s candidate for Fenner, the northern ACT seat currently held by Labor’s Andrew Leigh.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/7738609/one-nation-candidate-for-fenner-arrested-near-parliament-house/?cs=14329
    Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson will seek broad support for an application to join NATO, she announced, after her party dropped its long-standing opposition to membership in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Not quite what Putin planned.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/sweden-seeks-nato-membership-as-ruling-party-drops-73-year-opposition-20220516-p5alki.html
    NATO’s secretary general says Vladimir Putin’s invasion has not gone to plan and Ukraine “can win this war” as new intelligence indicated Russia may have lost one third of the force it sent to the country.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2022/05/16/russia-troop-losses-british-intelligence/
    A white 18-year-old accused of a killing ten people in a racially motivated attack while wearing military gear and livestreaming with a helmet camera is believed to have released a manifesto in which he attributed his radicalisation to Christchurch mosque shooter Brenton Tarrant.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/at-least-eight-dead-in-daylight-mass-shooting-at-us-supermarket-20220515-p5alee.html
    Biden will do ‘everything in his power’ to end hate crimes. But can he do anything, wonders Farrah Tomazin.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/biden-will-do-everything-in-his-power-to-end-hate-crimes-but-can-he-do-anything-20220515-p5alhl.html

    Cartoon Corner

    David Rowe

    Mark David


    Joe Benke

    Peter Broelman

    Megan Herbert

    Glen Le Lievre and a gif
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1525687856098082816
    Mark Knight

    Leak

    From the US







  37. “Andrew Clennell of Sky News yesterday related polling conducted for the Industry Association….and its overall tenor seems rather too rosy for Labor.”…

    On the other hand, if Sky News and the Industry Association have abandoned the Coalition, I would say that’s it’s pretty much over.

  40. There’s been a noticeable drop in the yellow noise in the last week or so.

    I’m assuming a deal struck between Palmer and Morrison. Even the billboards are slowly disappearing.

  42. “Love your optimism” here is like “bless your heart” in the US South.

    Look, nobody is going to believe in a Labor landslide until it happens, I know, but the “rosy” polling (even if you take off 3 points) is pretty consistent with the 54-46 Newspoll. Unlike 2019 where the campaign went from bad to worse for the ALP, this one has gone from bad to worse for the Coalition (objectively true, you don’t get a PM promising to change his ways if re-elected 8 days out from the election if things are going great), so it isn’t hard to believe the polls have actually inched in Labor’s favour since the first week.

  44. “The poll has Zimmerman on 34.9%, Renshaw on 25.0% and Tink on 12.4%, with Greens candidate Heather Armstrong on 15.0%. “…

    Well, it doesn’t look good for Trent….
    Teals’ priorities:
    1st) Defeat the Liberal incumbent with the help of disaffected Liberal voters and ALP+Greens voters.
    2nd) If the 1st aim is not achievable, then defeat the Liberal incumbent by allocating preferences to the ALP and then face the ALP candidate at the following election with the aim of defeating him/her.

  45. @ajm – what did the page 2 and 3 Clive ads say? Still the same stuff, or any sign of a shift to just attack the ALP?

  46. Expat @ #40 Monday, May 16th, 2022 – 7:27 am

    There’s been a noticeable drop in the yellow noise in the last week or so.

    I’m assuming a deal struck between Palmer and Morrison. Even the billboards are slowly disappearing.

    I just want that fat fool, Craig Kelly, gone for all money from parliament. And I especially don’t want Clive Palmer in the Senate forming a blocking majority with PHON and the Coalition!

  47. Knuckle knob wants a fight over housing policy?
    I would deny his wish…
    Labor should just promote their own housing policy pointing out there is no need to raid your super.
    Ad blitz it simple!

  48. Like K Rudd says The Murdochracy is a cancer on democracy. Its whole purpose is to progress conservative philosophy, attack decent progressive people, prosecute culture wars, and destroy a fair go for all. Good news is Murdoch is now very old and according to many sources his heir apparent is not the sharpest knife in the drawer.

  49. Tom @ #41 Monday, May 16th, 2022 – 7:28 am

    ABC puts the boot into Scotty’s housing policy

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-16/coalition-superannuation-housing-policy-reaction/101068810

    This young ABC journalist puts it succinctly:

    Oliver Gordon
    @olgordon
    Avg super balance for 30-35 year olds is around $50K. Accessing 40% of that for a home deposit unlocks $20K. If you want to buy a $600K home with a 20% deposit you need $120K. In this situation you’d be using 40% of your future retirement savings for 16% of a deposit.

    Worth adding that in this prospective scheme participants would be required to repay what’s been taken from super, including a share of any capital gain, upon the sale of the home. Good summary of the possible risks/rewards of this idea here:

    Peter Ryan OAM
    @Peter_F_Ryan
    Dipping into superannuation to put $50k towards home ownership – pitched today by PM Scott Morrison. A trade off between betting on capital gains in real estate vs compound interest from super as a long term investment. A lot to weigh up and as always risks abound
    @abcnews

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