Three items of seat polling intelligence emerged over the weekend, none of which I’d stake my house on:
• Samantha Maiden of news.com.au reports a uComms poll of 831 respondents for GetUp! shows independent Zoe Daniel leading Liberal member Tim Wilson in Goldstein by 59-41 on two-candidate preferred and 35.3% to 34.0% on the primary vote, with Labor on 12.5%, the Greens on 8.9% and an undecided component accounting for 4.6%. It should be noted that the campaigns are clearly expecting a closer result, and that uComms is peculiarly persisting with a weighting frame based entirely on age and gender, which was common enough before 2019 but has generally been deemed insufficient since.
• Andrew Clennell of Sky News yesterday related polling conducted for the Industry Association of 800 respondents per seat showed Liberals incumbents trailing 58-42 in Robertson and 53-47 in Reid, and Labor leading by 56-44 in Parramatta and 54-46 in Gilmore, both of which the Liberals hope to win, and 57-43 in Shortland, which has never looked in prospect. The polling provided better news for the Coalition in showing the Liberals with a 57-43 lead in Lindsay and the Nationals trailing by just 51-49 in Labor-held Hunter. Clennell further related that “similar polling conducted earlier in the campaign also shows the government behind in Bennelong and Banks”. A fair degree of caution is due here as well: no indication is provided as to who conducted the polling, and its overall tenor seems rather too rosy for Labor.
• By contrast, local newspaper the North Sydney Sun has detailed results for North Sydney from Compass Polling, an outfit hitherto noted for polling conducted for conservative concerns that has then been used to push various lines in The Australian, which suggests independent Kylea Tink is running fourth and the threat Liberal member Trent Zimmerman faces is in fact from Labor’s Catherine Renshaw. The poll has Zimmerman on 34.9%, Renshaw on 25.0% and Tink on 12.4%, with Greens candidate Heather Armstrong on 15.0%. The online poll was conducted on May 6 from a sample of 507.
Speaking of staking houses, a fair bit of the electorate-level noise of the late campaign has related to where candidates claim to live for purposes of their electoral enrolment. The ball got ralling when The Australian reported that Vivian Lobo, the Liberal National Party candidate for the marginal Labor-held seat of Lilley in Brisbane, appeared not to live within the electorate at Everton Park as claimed on his enrolment. Labor’s demand that Lobo be disendorsed – always a challenging prospect after the close of nominations – was complicated on Saturday when Labor’s star candidate for Parramatta, Andrew Charlton, blamed an “oversight” for his enrolment at a Woollahra rental property owned by his wife a month after they moved to the electorate he hopes to represent.
The Liberals have naturally sought to maximise Labor’s embarrassment, with the Daily Mail quoting one over-excited party spokesperson calling on Labor to refer Charlton to the Australian Federal Police, as Lobo had been by the Australian Electoral Commission. But as the AEC’s media statement on the issue noted, Lobo has actively identified the Everton Park property as his residential address on his enrolment and nomination forms, potentially putting him in the frame for providing false or misleading information to a Commonwealth officer, punishable by a maximum 12 months’ imprisonment and $12,600 fine.
By contrast, Charlton’s is a sin of omission: failing to update his enrolment within the prescribed one month time frame after changing address, punishable only by a fine of $222 and in practice hardly ever enforced. There remains the question of why he was enrolled in Woollahra rather than at the Bellevue Hill property where he and his wife were living before their recent move to North Parramatta, but it’s difficult to see what ulterior motive might have been in play.
Now a new front has opened in the seat of McEwen on Melbourne’s northern fringe, where the Liberals are hopeful of unseating Labor member Rob Mitchell. Sumeyya Ilanbey of The Age reports today that Labor has asked the AEC to investigate Liberal candidate Richard Welch, who lives 50 kilometres from the electorate in the Melbourne suburb of Viewbank but listed an address in Wallan on his nomination form. Welch claims he had been living separately from his family in Wallan at the time of his nomination, but moved to his own property in Viewbank just days later after his landlord sold the house and terminated the lease.
“Bludging says:
Monday, May 16, 2022 at 4:35 am
…..Total 43 seats
That would be an impressive defeat. I think the result will turn out to be something close to that.”
Of course we can all provide our calculations and predictions, but to be frank I haven’t seen any serious calculation that ends up with the much fantasised “hung parliament”…. At this stage, I would regard the “hung parliament” as mere Liberal party propaganda…. whereas for anyone seriously predicting a “narrow win for the Coalition”, I would suggest psychiatric treatment.
The Adelaide Rupert has a double pager from Palmer…..attacking Morrison with quotes from Barnaby and Fioravanti-wells
😀
Saul Eslake
@SaulEslake
I want to scream, “This reckless inflation of house prices must stop!” … because that is precisely what this latest scheme will do …
Arky @ #45 Monday, May 16th, 2022 – 7:30 am
Page 2 is full of a letter from Craig Kelly. Page 3 is actually an attack ad on Morrison with Barnaby Joyce and Connie Ferrivanti Wells criticising him.
PRGuy
@PRGuy17
POLL: Get your hands off my super, Scott.
Agree? Reply or quote #ScottsSuperTax
well the palistine marcksin story disapeard as fast as dutons chinease ship no one cares disapointing labor has a weak lindsay candadate buthope labor does not have weak candadates in other seatts because albanese fears being over shadowed morison saying he wants a second term it will be there 4th term only howard got one in recent years
“Sandman says:
Monday, May 16, 2022 at 6:10 am
SKY NEWS Sharri Markson tried to paint Albanese as anti Israel based on statements he made back in 2018 and adding BS claims to it.”…
Ha, ha, ha…. Murdoch is desperately trying to do a Corbyn on Albo?…. The problem for Murdoch is that most inner city seats at majority ethnic Jewish component tend to traditionally lean to the Liberals, and those seats are currently in danger to be lost by the Liberals, but not to the ALP, rather they are going to the Teals, which nobody has accused of anti-Semitism. So, the ridiculous anti-Semitism accusation against Albo and the ALP would, at the most, simply increase the primary vote for the Teals in those seats…. leading to the expected loss for the Liberal incumbent anyway.
Murdoch, Costello, Scomo and the Coalition gang are fast running out of intellectual resources, and don’t know what to do in the last days of the campaign with all the money they have got…..
So, it looks pretty much over for the COALition,….. dear Labor… dear Labor….. Ha, ha, ha!
There’s been no split Federal election since the Half-Senate election 1970. Gough wanted to call a separate Half-Senate election in 1975 but “events” overtook that plan.
I am sure that Morrison would have split this year’s election if he thought that he could benefit from it, but that was never on.
Aaron newton @ #56 Monday, May 16th, 2022 – 7:48 am
And Scott Morrison is no John Howard. The real one must despair at Morrison’s political cack-handedness.
When Johannes Leak publishes a cartoon that is critical of Scomo…. then it’s clear that the Coalition has been left alone and adrift….
So, now it’s not a matter of “if” or “when”, but “by how much”.
Alpo,
I also love how the screaming banshees at Sky overlook how many MPs in Albanese’s FPLP team are Jewish! 😆
Thanks to the poster for the link: “The Pork Is Right”
I also note that The Courier Mail has started taking a line that they will probably employ against Labor, should Labor win:
‘Wages bill is taking off’
.. like it’s a bad thing.
“Prince planetsays:
Monday, May 16, 2022 at 7:36 am
Like K Rudd says The Murdochracy is a cancer on democracy.”…
… and as a result of the American Trumpism, we can say that the cancer is metastasising… Radical surgery and combined radio/chemotherapy will be required to save the patient!
BK
Thanks as always
“C@tmommasays:
Monday, May 16, 2022 at 8:00 am
Alpo,
I also love how the screaming banshees at Sky overlook how many MPs in Albanese’s FPLP team are Jewish! ”
Indeed!
Turkey is very important to NATO. It anchors NATO’s right flank. Adding Finland would extent NATO’s potential front by many hundreds of kilometers. (The converse is true for Russia.) Adding Sweden would improve defense in depth. Both Finland and Sweden’s militaries are competent. Finland is buying several dozen JSF which would dominate in air conflicts with Russia. However they have limited air base infrastructure which would be relatively easy to destroy with missiles.
Jordan Steele-John, and the Greens more generally, need to read and absorb this. Their insistence on halving the ADF and turning it into a Light Mobile Force is setting the ADF for mass slaughter.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/15/war-enabling-not-war-winning-how-are-drones-affecting-the-ukraine-war
🙂
RE: Bludging
I would love to share your enthusiasm and optimism – but I can’t determine where all the LNP losses are coming from or by which polling data you are using to determine would be a wonderful thrashing of the LNP.
Using Poll Bludger data & The ABC Calculator I come to 87 ALP seats. As state by state voting may not be uniform, and these measures are only using a 2PP outcome, the losses in LNP vs Independent are not being shown.
I believe that: Wentworth, Kooyong, Goldstein & Nth Sydney are gone for the LNP, and Curtin could also fall.
Some of the other NSW seats: Bennelong, Lindsay & Banks could be in play if the swing is on track.
Hughes will be an interesting 3 way contest – with the self proclaimed ‘next PM’ sharing the fate of his electoral namesake.
After destroying our hopes in 2019, Queensland (if current polling / Bludger Tracking is confirmed) could deliver an ALP Government.
My election surprise could be Page – it has been held by Labor, and the effects of drought, fire and flood could be crucial in this result, confounded by the lack of meaningful support from the current administration.
Yep, that’s what religion and politics amounts to.
GlenO
If you are about, thanks for your response on the context being critical with respect to the use of the word ‘jew’. You made your point about switching ‘muslim’ for jew’.
It reminds me in passing of my various posts about the way in which his political opponents, like dogs returning to their vomit, work over the spelling, the pronunciation, word ‘plays’, and ethnic derivation of ‘Albanese’.
In the Rowe cartoon what does what is written on the logs in the fire mean ? It looks like DFBNYA . The ‘F’ might be a ‘T’ .
‘Alpo says:
Monday, May 16, 2022 at 8:04 am
“C@tmommasays:
Monday, May 16, 2022 at 8:00 am
Alpo,
I also love how the screaming banshees at Sky overlook how many MPs in Albanese’s FPLP team are Jewish! ”
Indeed!’
=============
Oh? Are some of his best friends jews as well?
poroti @ #73 Monday, May 16th, 2022 – 8:12 am
Disasters Funded But Not Yet Announced.
Arky
Agreed, 2022 isn’t remotely the same as 2019. The Coalition’s campaign has been very poor and seems only to be getting worse (despite Murdoch’s best efforts) as the final week progresses.
The polls started out poorly for the Coalition and they too have been getting worse. This scenario is the exact opposite of 2019 and with all the facts currently available to us (such as they are) realistically, we should be expecting the opposite result.
C@T
“But! But! He’s promised to change the pattern on his Menacing Wallpaper to roses! ”
Turned out to be poison ivy.
Thanks as ever to BK, your comments on the stories are often better than the stories themselves and the comics are the best in the world great to be able to see them each day. I’m in Brisbane and haven’t bought the Courier since it went over the trenches in its support of the woeful Cando Newman, it’s cartoonist is probably Australia weakest.
On those North Sydney figures, the Teal has no chance. It looks like a traditional Labor-Liberal contest. That would be a little surprising given Ms Tink’s high profile, although the profile of the Labor candidate is also higher than usual.
The usual reservation applies about seat polls and the small sample size. MOE ~ 4.5%. On the adjusted numbers I get Labor 2PP ~ 44%. Assuming that the poll can be trusted, strategic voting by Labor voters wouldn’t work.
I checked the North Sydney Sun. It’s a new local publication (Dec 20), non-Murdoch, no obvious agenda or bias.
ltep, I think you’re overlooking the word “voluntarily”. It is doing the core of the work, because my argument is that most conventions are enforceable albeit at great cost. The ones that aren’t enforceable aren’t really conventions and get broken all the time. So yes, I think there are lines the Liberals won’t cross, because they won’t win if the cross them. (Also I was appealing to the cynicism of this place by using “Liberals”. I’m not above speaking to my audience.)
Boerwar @ #74 Monday, May 16th, 2022 – 8:12 am
A totally unnecessary aspersion to cast, Boerwar. You should know that is absolutely not the context with which the statement was made.
C@T
“ Saul Eslake
@SaulEslake
“I want to scream, “This reckless inflation of house prices must stop!” … because that is precisely what this latest scheme will do …”
Very hard to argue with Saul’s measured sentiment. It’s a ridiculous and destructive policy.
Thanks BK for the breakfast patrol–
Michelle Grattan has had a not so frequent these days lucid moment and written a pretty good assessment of Scomo for the Conversation today. pick of the bunch for me today
https://theconversation.com/his-beating-heart-is-a-focus-group-what-makes-scott-morrison-tick-182940
The Markson stuff last night was utterly terrible. You have to wonder about the effect on the regions of this stuff being pumped in there on FTA.
The Coalition’s candidate for Warringah Katherine Deves has made a rare media appearance to condemn the Prime Minister, the man who selected her for her seat, for choosing to identify as a Bulldozer.
”What sort of example is the Prime Minister setting by telling kids that they can be a bulldozer if they chose to be,” said the Captain’s Call Katherine Deves. ”How can young girls compete on the soccer field against a bulldozer.”
”The only thing a bulldozer should be used for is to roll over people whose beliefs you don’t share.”
https://theunaustralian.net/2022/05/16/katherine-deves-condemns-the-pm-for-choosing-to-identify-as-a-bulldozer/
nath @ #84 Monday, May 16th, 2022 – 8:24 am
There’s plenty of conspiracy theorist antisemitic nutters in the regions. But those seats aren’t really in play or the intended audience.
A story in the Guardian about a lack of diversity in the teals, I don’t find it in anyway surprising, or news worthy.
Every thing the coalition does is short term immediate gratification and pushing the pain further down the line.Labour shortages and skills issues are the result. I have Super in my retirement and so grateful for those who had the foresight to give me the benefits
Eslake, during his time as Chief Economist with a major Australian bank, was an active member of the Liberal Party
For all armchair Election followers, this week is a game called watch which seats the Leaders visit.
It will tell us the thinking of the different campaigns about which seats they need to defend and which seats they think they have a chance of gaining.
Steve 777
From earlier – a half senate election was called for May 18 1974 but the intervention of the Queensland Governor, on Joh’s advice, during the Night of the Long Prawns destroyed Gough’s cunning plan to take control of the Senate.
Gough responded by withdrawing advice for a half senate election and asking for a double dissolution. Governor Hannah’s writ for the election of 5 Senators was invalidated by Kerr’s writ for the double dissolution. Gough said something particularly rude about Joh but I can’t find it on the net at the moment
WeWantPaul @ #87 Monday, May 16th, 2022 – 8:29 am
If there is a lack of diversity among the Teals it’s because they came about in part to address the lack of diversity in the Liberal party.
It seems Jane Hume has belled the cat and blown up the Super for Houses cunning plan by admitting it will cause a “Bump” in house prices. No one has missed it! A scheme designed to make housing prices more affordable actually increase prices and makes them less affordable.
Amy Remeikis
@AmyRemeikis
· 50m
Liberal senator Jane Hume admits house prices will probably increase in the short term because of the Coalition’s superannuation home policy but says it will be worth it to get first home owners into homes.
‘C@tmomma says:
Monday, May 16, 2022 at 8:19 am
Boerwar @ #74 Monday, May 16th, 2022 – 8:12 am
‘Alpo says:
Monday, May 16, 2022 at 8:04 am
“C@tmommasays:
Monday, May 16, 2022 at 8:00 am
Alpo,
I also love how the screaming banshees at Sky overlook how many MPs in Albanese’s FPLP team are Jewish! ”
Indeed!’
=============
Oh? Are some of his best friends jews as well?
A totally unnecessary aspersion to cast, Boerwar. You should know that is absolutely not the context with which the statement was made.’
===============
The original logic fail is that if you employ jews you can’t be anti-semitic. The analagous logic fail is that you have jewish friends you can’t be anti-semitic.
IMO, Albanese is not anti-semitic but that using logic fails to demonstrate this is irrational.
GG
It is core Morrison behaviour: pick a fight, any fight and crank up your bullshitdoozies.
It’s Time says:
There’s plenty of conspiracy theorist antisemitic nutters in the regions. But those seats aren’t really in play or the intended audience.
___________________
It will certainly be a negative influence out there. Blunted somewhat by the fact that Markson, Bolt, Credlin et al aren’t really the type of people to really connect to the regions. Murray does, which is probably why he gets the most viewers.
If they actually get some effective and popular mouthpieces on there it will be a worry.
‘Confessions says:
Monday, May 16, 2022 at 8:36 am
WeWantPaul @ #87 Monday, May 16th, 2022 – 8:29 am
A story in the Guardian about a lack of diversity in the teals, I don’t find it in anyway surprising, or news worthy.
If there is a lack of diversity among the Teals it’s because they came about in part to address the lack of diversity in the Liberal party’
====================================
I have posted on this previously. Teal supporters are not holding the Teals to the same tests that they apply to other parties. The reality is that the Teals have self-selected from a narrow set of bounds. They bounds are: overwhelmingly female, disproportionately blond, aged between 30-40, university educated, higher than average income, and from an elite range of jobs. I haven’t checked but would add a guess: educated in wealthy private schools. Imagine the uproar if Labor ran a team like that!
Young people dont have much super to start with. When 40 percent of what they have that can be used towards house deposit, it is practically loose change that goes towards stamp duty.
In a nutshell, destroying your nest egg to pay extra for housing and stamp duty.
This policy is more than pathetic.
So where are the leaders today, anyone know?
Implied probability of winning from betfair.com
As at: May-16 (previous week in brackets)
Coalition majority: 5.2% (4%)
Coalition minority: 18% (26%)
Labor minority: 15% (14%)
Labor majority: 61% (56%)
Average number of seats LNP seat lost to ALP: 8.1 (7.2)
MOE (66% CI): 5.9 (5.5)