Three items of seat polling intelligence emerged over the weekend, none of which I’d stake my house on:
• Samantha Maiden of news.com.au reports a uComms poll of 831 respondents for GetUp! shows independent Zoe Daniel leading Liberal member Tim Wilson in Goldstein by 59-41 on two-candidate preferred and 35.3% to 34.0% on the primary vote, with Labor on 12.5%, the Greens on 8.9% and an undecided component accounting for 4.6%. It should be noted that the campaigns are clearly expecting a closer result, and that uComms is peculiarly persisting with a weighting frame based entirely on age and gender, which was common enough before 2019 but has generally been deemed insufficient since.
• Andrew Clennell of Sky News yesterday related polling conducted for the Industry Association of 800 respondents per seat showed Liberals incumbents trailing 58-42 in Robertson and 53-47 in Reid, and Labor leading by 56-44 in Parramatta and 54-46 in Gilmore, both of which the Liberals hope to win, and 57-43 in Shortland, which has never looked in prospect. The polling provided better news for the Coalition in showing the Liberals with a 57-43 lead in Lindsay and the Nationals trailing by just 51-49 in Labor-held Hunter. Clennell further related that “similar polling conducted earlier in the campaign also shows the government behind in Bennelong and Banks”. A fair degree of caution is due here as well: no indication is provided as to who conducted the polling, and its overall tenor seems rather too rosy for Labor.
• By contrast, local newspaper the North Sydney Sun has detailed results for North Sydney from Compass Polling, an outfit hitherto noted for polling conducted for conservative concerns that has then been used to push various lines in The Australian, which suggests independent Kylea Tink is running fourth and the threat Liberal member Trent Zimmerman faces is in fact from Labor’s Catherine Renshaw. The poll has Zimmerman on 34.9%, Renshaw on 25.0% and Tink on 12.4%, with Greens candidate Heather Armstrong on 15.0%. The online poll was conducted on May 6 from a sample of 507.
Speaking of staking houses, a fair bit of the electorate-level noise of the late campaign has related to where candidates claim to live for purposes of their electoral enrolment. The ball got ralling when The Australian reported that Vivian Lobo, the Liberal National Party candidate for the marginal Labor-held seat of Lilley in Brisbane, appeared not to live within the electorate at Everton Park as claimed on his enrolment. Labor’s demand that Lobo be disendorsed – always a challenging prospect after the close of nominations – was complicated on Saturday when Labor’s star candidate for Parramatta, Andrew Charlton, blamed an “oversight” for his enrolment at a Woollahra rental property owned by his wife a month after they moved to the electorate he hopes to represent.
The Liberals have naturally sought to maximise Labor’s embarrassment, with the Daily Mail quoting one over-excited party spokesperson calling on Labor to refer Charlton to the Australian Federal Police, as Lobo had been by the Australian Electoral Commission. But as the AEC’s media statement on the issue noted, Lobo has actively identified the Everton Park property as his residential address on his enrolment and nomination forms, potentially putting him in the frame for providing false or misleading information to a Commonwealth officer, punishable by a maximum 12 months’ imprisonment and $12,600 fine.
By contrast, Charlton’s is a sin of omission: failing to update his enrolment within the prescribed one month time frame after changing address, punishable only by a fine of $222 and in practice hardly ever enforced. There remains the question of why he was enrolled in Woollahra rather than at the Bellevue Hill property where he and his wife were living before their recent move to North Parramatta, but it’s difficult to see what ulterior motive might have been in play.
Now a new front has opened in the seat of McEwen on Melbourne’s northern fringe, where the Liberals are hopeful of unseating Labor member Rob Mitchell. Sumeyya Ilanbey of The Age reports today that Labor has asked the AEC to investigate Liberal candidate Richard Welch, who lives 50 kilometres from the electorate in the Melbourne suburb of Viewbank but listed an address in Wallan on his nomination form. Welch claims he had been living separately from his family in Wallan at the time of his nomination, but moved to his own property in Viewbank just days later after his landlord sold the house and terminated the lease.
On the Betting issue, I think we are all old enough and smart enough to not bet if we dont want to….All except me of course, that decision has been made for me by Mrs Beaglie
With the lack of proper individual seat polls, I guess we have to rely instead on the betting markets and leaks to journalists of supposed internal party polling.
Unsatisfactory all that is for someone like me who enjoys a spot of amateur psephology
A devastatingly good 4 Corners, putting Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in context, including Trump’s important role in putting the wind in Putin’s sails.
Griff:
Monday, May 16, 2022 at 8:27 pm
[‘Narcissists don’t change.’]
I tend to think there are narcissistic tendencies in us all, more so with those who seek political office. I prefer to be in the background.
What did other PB’ers think of SfM’s performance on 7:30 this evening?
(Trying to keep my own biases in check)
Put me down for
55-45
Final
82 ALP
60 lib
2 Indies/ Teal
1 Green
Seats won otn 123 total. 80 ALP 43 libs + others.
Seats won final. All of them 🙂
Called 8.30pm.
Conceded. The Fifth of Never or 10pm
I am not sure that I properly understood some of the categories though.
Personally I think of election betting as more akin to investing if done smartly with hedging, rather than gambling – but of course, that’s with the “if”. I’ve racked up a good profit every election since the 2020 US election (when I started). But it’s not for everyone and I don’t advise anyone to get into it without a good predictive record, or good understand of stats.
Not a betting person myself. But everyone has something. I don’t think about it.
I posted some odds a couple of days ago, but I don’t gamble and I would never work for or take money from the gambling industry. Each to their own though.
So to Rewi , not me ,just a concerned voter.
Barnaby at Katherine prepoll in Lingiari today with erstwhile CLP Senator Jacinta Price. She who Price replaced Senator Sam McMahon now LDM candidate for the Senate was there as well. Did a stunt involving Indigenous voters for the media. After the caravan Price, Barnaby & media moved on said voters promptly asked for Labor HTV’s & went inside & voted LOL! Only in the Territory. Price has been in witness protection as far as the bush is concerned- viscerally hated by her mob up here for Her strident attacks on her own people on Sky,
Lars did you do mathe with Jie Hockey? The Australian GDP is approximately 2 trillion, 1/2 a% of that is 10 billion.
Put me down for
55-45
Final
85 ALP
61 lib
4 Indies/ Teal
1 Green
Seats won otn 123 total. 80 ALP 43 libs + others.
Seats won final. All of them 🙂
Called 8.30pm.
Conceded. The Fifth of Never or 10pm
I am not sure that I properly understood some of the categories though.
@Adda, thanks re Hasluck and other WA seat betting
To Rewi re betting companies: It’s a legitimate question though, to be fair, the upside for a betting firm’s business with “native advertising” in a place like this would be so marginal as to be laughable right?
I abhor the way betting ads on TV coverage of sporting events draw in children. Not sure how many kids compulsively refresh this blog.
Morrison was awful, talked over the top of Leigh Sayles, his nasty side was very evident too. Oh well, that is his one appearance on the ABC done and dusted, you will not see him at the National Press Club later this week.
Albo on Wednesday can look Prime Ministerial in contrast.
Morrison no doubt instead will be having his ego boosted by Paul Murray or Ray Hadley
“ I’d say 0.5% of GDP works out to be 65bn US or roughly 80bn Aussie every year.”
Can we agree that 10%, or one tenth of $US1330.90 billion = $133.09 billion?
Can we then agree that 1%, or one one hundredth of $US1330.90 billion = $13.31 billion? (Rounded to two decimals)
So … 0.5% should be … half … of 1% of $US1330.90 billion … or … $US6.66 billion … so perhaps $A8 billion. Maybe more, depending on how one measures GNP … hence my range of $8-11 billion above.
Here endeth the maths lesson for dummies.
Yes RP should be 8bn per year . My bad maths.
Still decent saving to back to 2013.
Boerwar
News for you from Ukraine
What news ? One has been spotted in the wild……………..
T.D. Kerobatsos:
Monday, May 16, 2022 at 9:31 pm
So, you’re having a wager nevertheless?
Mavis,
Never bet on things that talk!
With the money we’ve lost from Chinese trade boycotts round it up to a decent 10bn per annum.
is the US alliance worth that amount of money?
We could do a lot financially just by being neutral between the us and china.
Greensborough Growler says:
Monday, May 16, 2022 at 9:38 pm
Mavis,
Never bet on things that talk!
中华人民共和国
What about Mr Ed?
I have nothing against people having a bet…..if you’re 18 what you do with your money is up to you. I do oppose the advertising of and sponsorships by betting companies on tv etc,especially to minors. I have nothing against them advertising in licensed venues where you need to be 18 ( mostly ) to get in.
Lars….maybe Albo could announce it as policy tomorrow….and lose in the biggest landslide defeat since 1975
“You just have to look at how Julia Gillard, with the aid of Manager of Government Business, Anthony Albanese, held on for a full term of government.”
***
So true, that Labor/Green/Ind gov really delivered on the floor of the parliament and stood the test of time.
The Australian Defense expenditure is about as useful as the Madagascan defence expenditure. Untold billions for nationalists to puff their chests out over and for sycophants of the U.S to explore their fantasies.
Oh post election of course beaglie.
It’s worth a policy debate at least – lots of people would back it.
Boerwar, Imacca
“ The Ukrainian General Staff noted that Russian forces are also creating reinforced concrete structures in Mykolaiv and Kherson Oblasts.[33] Russian trenches and concrete shelters are indicators that Russian forces seek to establish and defend permanent control over the occupied areas. ”
I have one more optimistic take on this. Digging in means the Russians no longer believe they can take any more territory in Ukraine. They are shifting focus to hanging onto what they have already taken. It is probably also a response to the recent battles around Kharkiv where the Ukrainians have booted the Russian forces out.
This is partly thanks to finally getting significant heavy weapons including US (and Canadian and Australian) heavy artillery. As more of that arrives, the tide will turn more and more against the Russians.
Puffytmd, from what you guessed, I’ll take a punt and guess that the only category that might be confusing you is “SEATS WON (FINAL)”. I had originally thought this game would run only until late Saturday night, and so considered results only for On The Night (OTN). I was encouraged to keep going until the tally was official and final, even if that took days or longer. I relented.
* SEATS WON is “SEATS WON PER PARTY OF INTEREST”. Some people are giving me just the ALP seats won, others are going further out on the limb. 🙂
* OTN is On The Night
* FINAL is when the AEC says it’s over. (At least I think it’s the AEC.)
Rewi says:
Monday, May 16, 2022 at 9:18 pm
So, my unanswered question from last night remains: are any posters here employed by or collecting fees from betting companies, or using this site for ‘native advertising’?
—-
I post odds, but only as a trend observation. I don’t gamble at all.
Given what I’ve read about the German artillery the Ukrainians are getting, I think Ukraine will be delighted if Russia wants to pick a spot and have its forces stay still there.
Upnorth,
After 50 plus years, Mr Ed probably needs run.
The marked differene between the last election & this is that the punters, over a period of three years, have assessed Morrison’s character – they no likey. Pepys.
GG,
‘Never bet on things that talk’
Brings to mind the classic Damon Runyon short story on betting, ‘A Nice Price’ (involving a boat race between teams from Harvard and Yale).
https://gutenberg.net.au/ebooks11/1100651h.html#A_Nice_Price
‘I do not know anything about boat races,’ Sam says, ‘and the Yales may figure as you say, but nothing between human beings is one to three. In fact,’ Sam the Gonoph says, ‘I long ago come to the conclusion that all life is six to five against. And anyway,’ he says, ‘how can anybody let such odds as these get away from them? I think I will take a small nibble at this proposition. What about you, Benny?’
Up north, mr Ed spoke out of both sides of his mouth. Not to be trusted
give Ukraine a few bunker busters….that will sort the out
Greensborough Growler says:
Monday, May 16, 2022 at 9:46 pm
Upnorth,
After 50 plus years, Mr Ed probably needs run.
中华人民共和国
I hear you cobber. Actually re-watched Dads Army over the last few weeks on YouTube. Had a good laugh.
RE: The Death of Superannuation: Now: You can’t afford a deposit for a home. No problem. Use your super. It’s your money, we understand that. Next: You can’t afford to pay your mortgage. No problem. Use your super. It’s your money, we understand that. You can’t afford to pay your rent. No problem. Use your super. It’s your money, we understand that. You can’t afford to pay off your credit card . No problem. Use your super. It’s your money, we understand that. You can’t afford your medical treatment. No problem. Use your super. It’s your money, we understand that. You can’t afford your grocery bills. Use your super. It’s your money, we understand that. I can’t afford to retire. That’s your problem!
2022 Federal Election: Required LNP 2PP%
Based on AEC, AEF & BludgerTrack data up to and including 14 May 22.
Note; the AEC’s updating of prepoll and postal vote data has been patchy of late. The latest counts I could rely on were up to 14 May 22.
Values displayed below are in the format of: AEF XXX (Previous day value) | BludgerTrack XXX (Previous day value).
Current LNP 2PP%: 47.04% (46.90%) | 45.76% (45.74%)
For LNP to win election
Required LNP 2PP% of remaining votes: 52.86% (52.69%) | 53.16% (52.95%)
Estimated LNP 2PP% daily (linear) increase required from now until election day: 2.73% (2.18%) | 2.93% (2.34%)
Required election day LNP 2PP% (based on linear 2PP increase): 66.12% (64.34%) | 66.25% (64.47%)
Best LNP case scenario
Apply an immediate 2PP campaign bounce (1.00%) then apply the maximum average daily increase in estimated 2PP% achieved in the campaign to date (0.064%) with an extra good last week campaign loading factor (10%).
Estimated LNP 2PP%: 48.13% (48.10%) | 46.86% (47.33%)
Seats won: 67 (67) | 65 (66)
Medium LNP case scenario
LNP 2PP% remains at current level.
Estimated LNP 2PP%: 47.04% (46.91%) | 45.76% (45.73%)
Seats won: 65 (65) | 57 (57)
Worst LNP case scenario
Apply an immediate campaign sinkage (-1.00%) to LNP 2PP% then apply the maximum average decline in estimated 2PP% achieved in the campaign to date (-0.051%) with an extra bad last week campaign loading factor (-10%).
Estimated LNP 2PP%: 45.98% (45.80%) | 44.70% (44.62%)
Seats won: 59 (57) | 53 (51)
Observations
A very slight improvement for the LNP but they are still in a highly unlikely position to win this election.
I do not expect much change here until the next polls are released.
Notes
1. Enrolment, postal and prepoll voting data sourced from AEC website.
2. Analysis incorporates allowances for voter turnout and informal vote rates based on 2019 federal election.
3. AEF data sourced from Nowcast archives at: https://www.aeforecasts.com/forecast/2022fed/archives
Darc says:
Monday, May 16, 2022 at 9:49 pm
Up north, mr Ed spoke out of both sides of his mouth. Not to be trusted
中华人民共和国
True. I much preferred Arnold Ziffel from Green Acres.
Upnorth says:
. Actually re-watched Dads Army over the last few weeks on YouTube. Had a good laugh.
______
You can see snippets of it on PB most days.
“ Still decent saving to back to 2013.”
Except that wasn’t the ‘saving’ in 2013. The defence budget had been projected to be around 1.7% of GNP for 2013FY, but due the factors I’ve listed above came in at 1.59%. There was not much of a saving to the budget bottom line at all. Certainly not anything like $8 billion per year in 2013 dollars.
Ross Gittins calculated it to be $5.4 billion over four years. And guess what? The opposition – led by Ten Tanks Tony himself – supported it because of the debate over achieving a budget surplus back then.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/no-defence-of-budget-surplus-needed-20120527-1zcyf.html
Overall, defence spending went up under i Labor over the term of the last government. Even some of the planned cuts in the 2012 budget were reversed before it left office.
https://www.aap.com.au/factcheck/minister-off-target-with-claim-labor-cut-billions-from-defence/
Dads Army ….or as we like to call it…PB…..I wonder who our Corporal Jones is…”Dont Panic, Dont Panic
BeaglieBoy says:
Monday, May 16, 2022 at 9:53 pm
Dads Army ….or as we like to call it…PB…..I wonder who our Corporal Jones is…”Dont Panic, Dont Panic
________
Well it’s mundo. without the ‘Don’t’.
Russia’s biggest problem is that it now has to choose between a destabilising mobilisation and drying up its army on the ground. Sanctions are also significantly restricting its ability to make weapons.
One more prediction for election night. Unless the result is so one sided that Liberal defeat is undeniable by 8pm, I doubt Morrison will concede on the night. So no concession time prediction from me.
This has nothing to with numbers. Morrison is a lying, bullying coward who has consistently denied responsibility for every failure in the past three years. He will not admit defeat on the night, clutching at any excuse to avoid it.
If for example saying he might get 80% preferences in postal votes and form a coalition with Adam Bandt makes governing possible, he will say it to avoid conceding. Then after the postals are counted he will concede a few days later. But he will do it by phone with no cameras rolling. I predict.
And when they are finally dragged out of Kirribilli, I want the safety of that cat ensured and a count on all the silverware.
nath says:
Monday, May 16, 2022 at 9:52 pm
Upnorth says:
. Actually re-watched Dads Army over the last few weeks on YouTube. Had a good laugh.
______
You can see snippets of it on PB most days.
中华人民共和国
True dat.
Thanks king… based on your model what would the best, medium and worst case be for the alp?
give Ukraine a few bunker busters….that will sort the out
I think they already have therobaric kit (TOS) to sort that kind of thing. Although, thinking about it the Russians have plenty of those (they lost a few outside Kyiv ) and they havent been able to make much headway against the dug in Ukranians in Donbas??
I’d say that digging in with concrete means that the Russians are setting up for an endgame with keeping what they have taken after they have the rest of Donbas.
Socrates,
I see it the other way. Morrison knows that if he doesn’t win, he has to concede. If he get’s in quick, acts graciously then at least he upstages Turnbull and get’s to fuck off asap.
Scomo loves ducking responsibility. And he’d love to be found to have conceded in error a few days later by postal votes (if fate is really looking to punish us all),