Three items of seat polling intelligence emerged over the weekend, none of which I’d stake my house on:
• Samantha Maiden of news.com.au reports a uComms poll of 831 respondents for GetUp! shows independent Zoe Daniel leading Liberal member Tim Wilson in Goldstein by 59-41 on two-candidate preferred and 35.3% to 34.0% on the primary vote, with Labor on 12.5%, the Greens on 8.9% and an undecided component accounting for 4.6%. It should be noted that the campaigns are clearly expecting a closer result, and that uComms is peculiarly persisting with a weighting frame based entirely on age and gender, which was common enough before 2019 but has generally been deemed insufficient since.
• Andrew Clennell of Sky News yesterday related polling conducted for the Industry Association of 800 respondents per seat showed Liberals incumbents trailing 58-42 in Robertson and 53-47 in Reid, and Labor leading by 56-44 in Parramatta and 54-46 in Gilmore, both of which the Liberals hope to win, and 57-43 in Shortland, which has never looked in prospect. The polling provided better news for the Coalition in showing the Liberals with a 57-43 lead in Lindsay and the Nationals trailing by just 51-49 in Labor-held Hunter. Clennell further related that “similar polling conducted earlier in the campaign also shows the government behind in Bennelong and Banks”. A fair degree of caution is due here as well: no indication is provided as to who conducted the polling, and its overall tenor seems rather too rosy for Labor.
• By contrast, local newspaper the North Sydney Sun has detailed results for North Sydney from Compass Polling, an outfit hitherto noted for polling conducted for conservative concerns that has then been used to push various lines in The Australian, which suggests independent Kylea Tink is running fourth and the threat Liberal member Trent Zimmerman faces is in fact from Labor’s Catherine Renshaw. The poll has Zimmerman on 34.9%, Renshaw on 25.0% and Tink on 12.4%, with Greens candidate Heather Armstrong on 15.0%. The online poll was conducted on May 6 from a sample of 507.
Speaking of staking houses, a fair bit of the electorate-level noise of the late campaign has related to where candidates claim to live for purposes of their electoral enrolment. The ball got ralling when The Australian reported that Vivian Lobo, the Liberal National Party candidate for the marginal Labor-held seat of Lilley in Brisbane, appeared not to live within the electorate at Everton Park as claimed on his enrolment. Labor’s demand that Lobo be disendorsed – always a challenging prospect after the close of nominations – was complicated on Saturday when Labor’s star candidate for Parramatta, Andrew Charlton, blamed an “oversight” for his enrolment at a Woollahra rental property owned by his wife a month after they moved to the electorate he hopes to represent.
The Liberals have naturally sought to maximise Labor’s embarrassment, with the Daily Mail quoting one over-excited party spokesperson calling on Labor to refer Charlton to the Australian Federal Police, as Lobo had been by the Australian Electoral Commission. But as the AEC’s media statement on the issue noted, Lobo has actively identified the Everton Park property as his residential address on his enrolment and nomination forms, potentially putting him in the frame for providing false or misleading information to a Commonwealth officer, punishable by a maximum 12 months’ imprisonment and $12,600 fine.
By contrast, Charlton’s is a sin of omission: failing to update his enrolment within the prescribed one month time frame after changing address, punishable only by a fine of $222 and in practice hardly ever enforced. There remains the question of why he was enrolled in Woollahra rather than at the Bellevue Hill property where he and his wife were living before their recent move to North Parramatta, but it’s difficult to see what ulterior motive might have been in play.
Now a new front has opened in the seat of McEwen on Melbourne’s northern fringe, where the Liberals are hopeful of unseating Labor member Rob Mitchell. Sumeyya Ilanbey of The Age reports today that Labor has asked the AEC to investigate Liberal candidate Richard Welch, who lives 50 kilometres from the electorate in the Melbourne suburb of Viewbank but listed an address in Wallan on his nomination form. Welch claims he had been living separately from his family in Wallan at the time of his nomination, but moved to his own property in Viewbank just days later after his landlord sold the house and terminated the lease.
Hopefully this time Fraser doesn’t turn up
So based on your figures ae labor spent 24bn in its last year 2013 . The liberals have 48bn in the budget.
Let’s just go to say 36bn which is still a 50% increase over 2013.
Might be a few less toys for the military – but ample for the defence of Australia alone.
12bn a year is still a mighty fine peace dividend – for going neutral , not to mention the trade benefits.
Final:
82 ALP
60 Lib
1 Green
8 Independents
Sharri Markson at SKY tells us the Coalition can get to 74 seats and get Katter and Sharkie to get them over the line after doing a Joshy Boy and fudging the figures to suit her narrative.
One on the problems with her predictions is that she is reliant on the Coalition winning the seat of Pearce from Labor in WA. Sorry to say Pearce IS a Coalition seat Sharri so the Coalition would be winning this seat against themselves, you know like Scomo telling us to vote for Scomo because he hates himself too. So a win in Pearce counts as 2 Coalition seats ? She needs to go back to her obsession with the Manchurian Candidate and stick with what she is good at, telling us things that don’t matter.
poroti says:
Monday, May 16, 2022 at 10:00 pm
Hopefully this time Fraser doesn’t turn up
中华人民共和国
Isn’t that Mundo?
touchy subject….but who is Captain Mainwaring? “you stupid boy”
Albo is a real Labor man, he like me was never comfortable with the way Rudd was despatched or the whole reasoning behind it, but he carried on and made things work. The Gillard government although besieged from the outset by a hostile media and the feeling of illegitimacy achieved an awful lot through the hard work of Albo. Unfortunately the whole thing ended up feeling hollow after the triumph of 2007. Its his time now to bring Labor back together, I think he’ll win and be a great PM after the hopeless efforts of Scomoe and Abbott especially. This last 15 years seems like a waste heres to some progress at last.
Upnorth at 10:02 pm
Fraser’s too optimistic to be mundo.
In the 7:30 interview Morrison in denying that he was blindsided on the Solomons basically admits it was incompetence.
Also on the Pacific he suggested that he was trying to fix a historic problem in relation to how Australia treated Pacific nations. Considering the comments of the Fijian PM it seems he was making the situation worse.
I suppose he was in his bulldozer at the time.
BeaglieBoy at 10:05 pm
That particular phrase made me think of it being used by one W Bowe to various comments.
BeaglieBoy says:
Monday, May 16, 2022 at 10:05 pm
touchy subject….but who is Captain Mainwaring? “you stupid boy
中华人民共和国
No comment.
If we had good relations with china who would care about si?
poroti says:
Monday, May 16, 2022 at 10:07 pm
BeaglieBoy at 10:05 pm
That particular phrase made me think of it being used by one W Bowe to various comments
中华人民共和国
No comment
Apparently, this is Morrison in a copulation experiment.
Former bulldozer*, now a changed man. First Dog’s take.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/may/16/scott-morrison-is-sorry-he-was-too-good-at-his-job-he-is-going-to-be-a-changed-man?utm_term=6281cdb84ae39bf2e19dcc3f17515a9a&utm_campaign=FirstDogOnTheMoon&utm_source=esp&utm_medium=Email&CMP=firstdog_email
* Was that a ‘suppository of wisdom’ moment? Surely he meant ‘bullshitter’.
Firefoxsays:
Monday, May 16, 2022 at 9:43 pm
“You just have to look at how Julia Gillard, with the aid of Manager of Government Business, Anthony Albanese, held on for a full term of government.”
***
So true, that Labor/Green/Ind gov really delivered on the floor of the parliament and stood the test of time.
_____________________
Yeah right. Easily the worst 3 years of govt I have seen or will ever see in my lifetime. It was a bloody mess.
Sandman Monday, May 16, 2022 at 10:01 pm:
—
Sharri Markson at SKY tells us the Coalition can get to 74 seats and get Katter and Sharkie to get them over the line
—
Tell her she’s dreaming. She would be better buying a pair of jousting sticks.
Yes Taylormade look at the polling from 2010 to 2013. It was a total disaster for Labor, and they all tell us minority government works.
Not holding my breath for a Labor win because I remember 2019.
GG is clearly Private Frazer. I never doubted it for a second.
Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #988 Monday, May 16th, 2022 – 10:06 pm
Yep. Mr Morrison would just shrug. “So what?” You can only fail at something you care about. What a philosophy. No care. No failure. Not even incompetence.
Yep. Wearing his patronizingly best cap.
L’arse, your last post conflates constant dollars with turned out dollars. A 0.5% cut to defence would be around the $8 billion mark. You seem at one point – although its unclear – to be advocating a cut in half of the defence budget, not the quarter that a 0.5% of gnp would entail.
Porter back to ‘slumming’ it.
.
Christian Porter returns to the bar as defence lawyer in Perth gun heist trial
https://www.watoday.com.au/national/christian-porter-returns-to-the-bar-as-defence-lawyer-in-perth-gun-heist-trial-20220516-p5alo2.html
My God and everyone else’s,
I just sat through the 7.30 Morrison interview watching in Perth!. I’d rather put my head in a bag with a dead cat Pooh than sit through that again. At least that sh&#t isn’t sanctimonious.
Morrison 2.0 is worse than the first version if that’s possible.
Please please he just has to go
Sky is the channel of choice for cranky old men. I can guess at the reasons they are cranky as I’m not young either. Shari is telling the old blokes what they want to hear which is pretty sad really.
carson63000 @ #1343 Monday, May 16th, 2022 – 9:22 pm
I keep seeing it almost every ad break. And it won’t go away.
Desperatesays:
Monday, May 16, 2022 at 8:07 pm
Just watching scomo – point that resonates with me and should to all Australians is you can’t have free health care aged care child care dentist care free university higher dole higher pension lower tax high min wage and more investment in climate change dv mental health etc is all white noise without a strong economy …. Labour green coalition will wreck the place and exhaust any economic base from to fix what needs to be fixed …. I think the teals will be smart enough to understand this.
_____________________
We have seen it all before Desperate. They think it grows on trees.
“But in a wide-ranging interview with 7.30 about his prospects and time in office, the Prime Minister declared he wasn’t thinking about standing down after Saturday’s poll, even in the event of a defeat or a hung parliament.”
Excellent, I’m sure that will do his re-election prospects a world of good … not. Dutton will be grinding his teeth. If ever Australians needed more of an excuse to rid themselves of Morrison then this is it.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-16/scott-morrison-not-contemplating-quitting-if-he-loses-election/101071372
Here’s a rambly one. Warning.
GlenO @ #1061 Monday, May 16th, 2022 – 7:12 pm
I’m not fully across the background to this, and the caravan has probably moved along, but if the question is what is the relevance of anti-Semitism to Wentworth, which I thought was pretty well understood anyway, I’ll give it a go. If it’s not, as you were, scroll on by.
Wentworth has a large Jewish population at around 12.5%.
Dave Sharma’s wife is Jewish I believe. Dave Sharma is an ex-ambassador to Israel. (That percentage link also references Morrison’s floating the idea of moving the Australian Embassy in Israel to Jerusalem, a Trumpian move, to shore up Sharma’s vote in 2019.) Labor is generally perceived by the community as trending pro-Palestinian / anti-Israel government actions in Gaza and beyond. Being anti-Israel anything is widely seen by the community as being anti-Semitic (not absolutely, some can do nuance, but then often only privately, while the general public reaction remains anti-Israel is anti-us.)
For example:
Sat Paper Dec 2021.
I was at lunch for six yesterday, Sunday, in Wentworth with four friends, all close friends, strict observant Jews (one is president of his synagogue): senior retired surgeon and wife, peak career younger surgeon and wife, and us. On the way, we actually discussed the merits of avoiding politics, let alone the sulphurous mix of religion, race, and politics. But politics happened. It started with discussion about pre-polling. When Mrs Senior Surgeon realised I had voted for Spender, she was visibly taken aback. Dr Senior Surgeon played mute, as is mostly the case. I made my explanation of why, the usual, and let it go. Friendship stabilised the boat, rocking a little bit.
Later during lunch I was in conversation with Mrs Younger Surgeon, the hostess. We slipped into reasons for not voting for Morrison, of which my bottom line, for the lunch table, was that I didn’t want my conscience burdened for life with being in any way responsible for putting that “bad man” in government. “Exactly, exactly the same for me” said Mrs Younger Surgeon. “Bad Man” saw Mrs Senior Surgeon bristle again. What did I mean by bad, I was quizzed. I did the Fierravanti-Wells quote thing about ‘no moral compass’. “You know, no moral compass: can’t tell right from wrong, doesn’t know the difference.” She was taken aback. She hadn’t heard a word of all this, nor was in any way interested in expanding on it. Dr Senior Surgeon stayed mute. No minds were changed, nor shell fish eaten.
Howard Hater Reg. No 76142says: at 10:18 pm
My working hypothesis it the 2.0 Morrison is just a doubled 1.0 Morrisson
michaelsays:
Monday, May 16, 2022 at 10:13 pm
Yes Taylormade look at the polling from 2010 to 2013. It was a total disaster for Labor, and they all tell us minority government works.
_____________________
Well it certainly didn’t work that time.
When I see the “Hole in the bucket” ad, I keep thinking of a modern day version of this with Albo and Charmers if Labor forms a government and after treasury delivers the bad news.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kNZLCuFpAjM
Private Godfrey?
Lars may want to know this.
In Fowler the Daily Telegraph are reporting Kristina Keneally’s primary vote is collapsing, locals have a deeply unfavourable view of Labor’s parachute pick candidate versus her opponent, Independent candidate Dai Le.
According to research by Laid Law Campaigns and Counsel, Ms Keneally’s primary vote has collapsed by nearly 13 points to 42 per cent.
More info hopefully coming
michael says:
Monday, May 16, 2022 at 10:27 pm
Lars may want to know this.
In Fowler the Daily Telegraph are reporting Kristina Keneally’s primary vote is collapsing, locals have a deeply unfavourable view of Labor’s parachute pick candidate versus her opponent, Independent candidate Dai Le.
_______
It was always a risk they didn’t need to take.
Bait and switch:
Palmer sets out to harvest the preferences of the discontented, the uninformed and the stupid.
So how far do we take “it is my money and I will do what I want with it”?
Can we refuse to pay tax (including the GST)?
In fact why can’t we just do what we want when we want and how we want?
Mind you this mob jailed those who objected to being conscripted
ItzaDream @ #1423 Monday, May 16th, 2022 – 10:22 pm
I should apologise, my previous post ended up lacking the original point, which was that “because Jewish” isn’t really a good enough explanation, because it assumes that all Jews view issues around Israel/Palestine, etc, the same way.
What I don’t understand is why people think that Sharri Markson’s claims would actually have an impact, given that the underlying claim has to do with the Israeli government, and not Jewish people in general, and the people who would make the decision based solely on that probably aren’t voting Labor or Teal anyway.
I totally understand that the conservatives are trying to paint Albanese as anti-semitic. I just don’t understand why anyone thinks it would work.
Steve777, my seven year old has now joined his nine year old in being converted by Clive and his freedom crusade. I guess it is fortunate he can’t vote yet.
Late Riser @ #1322 Monday, May 16th, 2022 – 9:05 pm
PV:
-Labor 39.5%
-LNP 35%
-Greens 11%
-UAP 4%
-One Nation 5%
-Other 5.5%
TPP Vote:
Labor: 54.5%
LNP: 45.5%
Seats Won (OTN):
Labor: 87
LNP: 50
Greens: 1
KAP: 1
CA: 1
Independents: 4
In Doubt: 7
Seats Won (Final):
Labor 91
LNP 51
Greens 1
KAP 1
CA 1
Independents 6
Time winner declared:
7:30pm
Time loser concedes defeat:
8:30pm
Arky at 8.46
One of the entertaining features of this campaign is the list of ‘smokies’ seems to expand almost every day, especially as the number of Labor-held seats on the list seems to be decreasing (e.g. Gilmore not really on it anymore.)
Meanwhile, places like Nicholls, McKellar, Page, Bennelong, a bunch of Qld seats, Sturt, Curtin maybe even Tangney are on the list.
The Coalition have many paths to defeat – and none of those paths really require ANY smokies to flip!
A religion and a support for the actions of another country are 2 different things. It is of course possible to be Jewish and not support Israel ‘s actions. To call that anti Semitic is insane
It is like saying the Mafia is catholic therefore if you oppose the Mafia you are anti catholic
nath at 10:31 pm
Hello, is that you Private Fraser ? 😉
poroti says:
Monday, May 16, 2022 at 10:38 pm
nath at 10:31 pm
Hello, is that you Private Fraser
________
GG is Frazer. C’mon. I’m far too friendly.
Hugh Riminton and PVO nailed Scott 2.0 on their podcast; equating the change to a new jar for Vegemite
nath @ #1435 Monday, May 16th, 2022 – 10:31 pm
Give me a break!
The week after Niki Savva detailed the direct link between The Daily Telegraph and Scott Morrison and the PMO, and in the last 5 days of the election campaign, someone claims a story in that rag about Kristina Kenneally is the honest truth!?!
ROFLMAO!
Thanks Michael.
Looks terrible for KK, she’s an outside chance of being this elections Sophie Award winner.
No one wonder she is getting an emergency Albo visit.
@LVT – no one has good relations with China. That won’t change under Xi.
C@tmomma says:
The week after Niki Savva detailed the direct link between The Daily Telegraph and Scott Morrison and the PMO, and in the last 5 days of the election campaign, someone claims a story in that rag about Kristina Kenneally is the honest truth!?!
_____________
I don’t know if it’s the truth. But I always felt it was a risk not worth taking. Unless you are desperate to advance the career of KK, which there are obviously a few.
Meanwhile in Fowler disqualified Liberal come independent Dai Le is putting the racists and anti-vaxers ahead of Labor and the Greens going via her HTV at https://daile.com.au/how-to-vote/.