Three items of seat polling intelligence emerged over the weekend, none of which I’d stake my house on:
• Samantha Maiden of news.com.au reports a uComms poll of 831 respondents for GetUp! shows independent Zoe Daniel leading Liberal member Tim Wilson in Goldstein by 59-41 on two-candidate preferred and 35.3% to 34.0% on the primary vote, with Labor on 12.5%, the Greens on 8.9% and an undecided component accounting for 4.6%. It should be noted that the campaigns are clearly expecting a closer result, and that uComms is peculiarly persisting with a weighting frame based entirely on age and gender, which was common enough before 2019 but has generally been deemed insufficient since.
• Andrew Clennell of Sky News yesterday related polling conducted for the Industry Association of 800 respondents per seat showed Liberals incumbents trailing 58-42 in Robertson and 53-47 in Reid, and Labor leading by 56-44 in Parramatta and 54-46 in Gilmore, both of which the Liberals hope to win, and 57-43 in Shortland, which has never looked in prospect. The polling provided better news for the Coalition in showing the Liberals with a 57-43 lead in Lindsay and the Nationals trailing by just 51-49 in Labor-held Hunter. Clennell further related that “similar polling conducted earlier in the campaign also shows the government behind in Bennelong and Banks”. A fair degree of caution is due here as well: no indication is provided as to who conducted the polling, and its overall tenor seems rather too rosy for Labor.
• By contrast, local newspaper the North Sydney Sun has detailed results for North Sydney from Compass Polling, an outfit hitherto noted for polling conducted for conservative concerns that has then been used to push various lines in The Australian, which suggests independent Kylea Tink is running fourth and the threat Liberal member Trent Zimmerman faces is in fact from Labor’s Catherine Renshaw. The poll has Zimmerman on 34.9%, Renshaw on 25.0% and Tink on 12.4%, with Greens candidate Heather Armstrong on 15.0%. The online poll was conducted on May 6 from a sample of 507.
Speaking of staking houses, a fair bit of the electorate-level noise of the late campaign has related to where candidates claim to live for purposes of their electoral enrolment. The ball got ralling when The Australian reported that Vivian Lobo, the Liberal National Party candidate for the marginal Labor-held seat of Lilley in Brisbane, appeared not to live within the electorate at Everton Park as claimed on his enrolment. Labor’s demand that Lobo be disendorsed – always a challenging prospect after the close of nominations – was complicated on Saturday when Labor’s star candidate for Parramatta, Andrew Charlton, blamed an “oversight” for his enrolment at a Woollahra rental property owned by his wife a month after they moved to the electorate he hopes to represent.
The Liberals have naturally sought to maximise Labor’s embarrassment, with the Daily Mail quoting one over-excited party spokesperson calling on Labor to refer Charlton to the Australian Federal Police, as Lobo had been by the Australian Electoral Commission. But as the AEC’s media statement on the issue noted, Lobo has actively identified the Everton Park property as his residential address on his enrolment and nomination forms, potentially putting him in the frame for providing false or misleading information to a Commonwealth officer, punishable by a maximum 12 months’ imprisonment and $12,600 fine.
By contrast, Charlton’s is a sin of omission: failing to update his enrolment within the prescribed one month time frame after changing address, punishable only by a fine of $222 and in practice hardly ever enforced. There remains the question of why he was enrolled in Woollahra rather than at the Bellevue Hill property where he and his wife were living before their recent move to North Parramatta, but it’s difficult to see what ulterior motive might have been in play.
Now a new front has opened in the seat of McEwen on Melbourne’s northern fringe, where the Liberals are hopeful of unseating Labor member Rob Mitchell. Sumeyya Ilanbey of The Age reports today that Labor has asked the AEC to investigate Liberal candidate Richard Welch, who lives 50 kilometres from the electorate in the Melbourne suburb of Viewbank but listed an address in Wallan on his nomination form. Welch claims he had been living separately from his family in Wallan at the time of his nomination, but moved to his own property in Viewbank just days later after his landlord sold the house and terminated the lease.
Thanks for the answers youse guys.
Sometimes some of the discussion looks like pump-priming a market to me.
As to why you’d bother, I guess if you had an appreciation for the size of the lurker community on the site you might think it was worth it. My impression is that the commenter:lurker ratio is something to behold.
Lars Von Trier,
If KK get’s bounced it’ll be a loss for the brief moment until Albo finds a great board or diplomatic post she can spend out her days in.
Keneally PV is 45% now (bit weird when you read the article now online) and Le 38% with a margin of error of 4 points and 17% undecided and the researchers believed the seat had moved from safe Labor to too close to call. And Keneally’s support is soft so the seat may well be now in play.
Wouldn’t read too much into a seat poll from an unknown firm (not a member of the polling council).
So in an election where labor expects a 5% swing in nsw, labor will have a 13% swing against it in Fowler? Subtract the margin of error it’s still a 9% swing against.
Maybe they should have backed Tu Le?
Taylormade @ #1427 Monday, May 16th, 2022 – 10:21 pm
Yes, the Coalition have certainly proven that in spades. Half a Billion almost to The GBR Foundation. The Reef still dies. Multiple Billions to companies that made a fat profit out of the pandemic. Companies that made a fat profit out of asylum seekers on Manus and Nauru. Tens of Billions to companies in JobKeeper, even though they made a profit. Those trees are virtually denuded and all we have to show for it is a Trillion Dollars of Debt.
The fact is that KK, despite being in the Leadership group and in the Shadow Cabinet couldn’t take on the SDA (Deb O’Neill) for the top senate spot and had to go elsewhere.
You seem to be counting those chickens before their hatched there,lars von trier.
nath @ #1448 Monday, May 16th, 2022 – 10:42 pm
I don’t see what you have against a woman of serious political talent?
C@tmomma says:
I don’t see what you have against a woman of serious political talent?
______
Nothing. I would have preferred her in the top senate spot.
Can anyone who lives in Hinkler or Herbert mention what is happening there pls
What is with KKK? And to be non factional , Mark Butler? And…
Don’t answer that We all know from our own workplaces there are some people who just seem to advance, purely on the basis they are professionally adequate and personally driven and true servants of some status quo. Their peers dislike them, their subordinates despise them, but the bosses feel compelled to acquiesce to their ambitions.
nath @ #1455 Monday, May 16th, 2022 – 10:48 pm
And a position was found for her. That’s politics.
Hmm, maybe I’ve ‘misremembered’ all the people that said KK should have gone to the Lower House ages ago anyway. So she did. Now that’s wrong too?
And I can’t understand the set against Deb. She’s backed by a Union. Big Deal. The Shoppies. So what? So’s Peter Malinauskas. I mean, are you really trying to naysay the fact that Deb pretty much single handedly got 7-11 to pay their employees their correct entitlements, which amounted to multiple millions of dollars!?! Just so you can snipe at the SDA!?! That’s simply pathetic.
GlenO @ #1438 Monday, May 16th, 2022 – 10:33 pm
Thanks Glen O, and certainly no need to apologise. My perception is that the Jews I know, and I know a fair few are pretty ready to take an attack on Israel broadly as anti-Semitic. It’s not rational, of course, and how could it be. Reasoning doesn’t come into it. I often wonder too if it is also a way of quickly deflecting what they themselves see as fair humanitarian criticisms; that is, it salves them internally as well as externally. I’ve experienced it at the minor level of being a member of a small neighbourhood delegation which raised some objections to a development/expansion of a local Jewish complex, and the main argument put across the table, in the synagogue were we met, was that we were being anti-Semitic.
C@tmomma says:
Monday, May 16, 2022 at 10:55 pm
nath @ #1455 Monday, May 16th, 2022 – 10:48 pm
The fact is that KK, despite being in the Leadership group and in the Shadow Cabinet couldn’t take on the SDA (Deb O’Neill) for the top senate spot and had to go elsewhere.
And a position was found for her. That’s politics.
________
And it’s not a good fit, and it might backfire, and it might not. That’s politics too.
Let’s not rehash the SDA again. You are completely unable to see through their bullshit.
nath @ #1458 Monday, May 16th, 2022 – 10:51 pm
You know the only reason she wasn’t in the Lower House years ago was because Kevin Rudd stymied her advancement. He felt threatened by her. Well now she’s where she wanted to be all along. She only had to get there via the Senate is all.
nath @ #1463 Monday, May 16th, 2022 – 10:57 pm
And you are unable to see what a bunch of tossers the other guys are.
So we’ll leave it at that.
Apologies for how hard this is to read. Nevertheless this is an update. I’ve already received a lot of guesses in other categories but I won’t spam the blog with continual updates. I will keep track of new guesses and maybe post the occasional summaries. (And maybe I can figure something out that WordPress doesn’t mangle.)
Federal Election Guesses, May-16 22:37 — SEATS (FINAL)
ALP/LNP/KAP/GRN/CA/Teal/other
82/ 60/ / 1/ / / 8 AB, May-16 22:01
85/ / / / / / Adrian Beaumont, May-16 17:31
83/ 60/ / / / / 8 allin127, May-16 00:27
80/ 63/ / 1/ / 2/ 5 BeaglieBoy, May-16 14:13
77/ / / / / / BK, May-16 17:36
73/ 72/ / 1/ / / 5 bluepill, May-16 18:15
/51+/ / / / / Confessions, May-16 05:39
79/ 62/ / / / / 10 Cronus, May-16 18:54
84/ / / / / / d-money, May-15 18:57
87/ 55/ / / / / 9 Edward Boyce, May-15 15:01
78/ / / / / / Evan, May-16 17:34
80/ / / / / / Expat Follower, May-16 17:03
75/ 69/ 1/ 1/ 1/ / 4 Freya Stark’s gut, May-15 18:39
84/ 57/ 1/ 1/ 1/ / 7 Freya Stark’s head, May-15 18:39
73/ 69/ / / / / 9 Geetroit, May-16 17:45
84/ / / / / / GlenO, May-15 22:29
76/ 66/ / / / / 9 Goll, May-16 19:03
82/ 61/ / / / / 8 Hugoaugogo, May-16 15:19
74/ 69/ / 2/ / / 6 JayC, May-16 20:29
80/ / / / / / King OMalley, May-15 22:05
86/ / / / / / King OMalley, May-16 17:40
78/ / / / / / Lars Von Trier, May-15 18:46
/51+/ / / / / ltep, May-16 05:05
82/ 61/ 1/ 1/ 0/ 0/ 6 Luke, May-16 19:19
78/ 65/ / / / / 8 max, May-16 14:05
78/ / / / / / Mr. Curlew, May-15 22:10
79/ 62/ / / / / 10 Ophuph Hucksake, May-16 18:30
78/ / / / / / Outsider, May-16 17:26
79/ 63/ / 2/ / / 7 PaulTu, May-16 15:24
82/ 60/ / 1/ / 2/ 6 Puffytmd, May-16 21:30
77/ 66/ / / / / 8 Sandman, May-16 20:15
80/ / / / / / sonar, May-15 18:31
77/ / / / / / steve davis, May-16 17:40
91/ 51/ 1/ 1/ 1/ / 6 Tazza, May-16 22:37
80/ 60/ / / / / 11 The loose unit, May-16 09:38
82/ 60/ / / / / The loose unit, May-16 17:12
82/ / / / / / Upnorth , May-16 19:17
C@t, re the strong economy bulldust, I was recently taken to by my SIL (we get on well, but for …) again on the Spender in Wentworth. SIL is ex-Ascham (natch), and very on side with Ms Danziger (matriarch and ex-head mistress of some renown) who has publicly supported Spender.
“She’s a Greenie!!” she (SIL) hissed at me. Stunned silence. Another mouthful. Chewing slowly. Another sip. “And” – brief pause as she sets up for her coup de grace – “you need a strong economy to deal with Climate Change!!”, followed by a smug smile Morrison would have given an 8 for I reckon.
With this we are saddled.
Another day gone with no problems for Albo. So it’s still 68 to start. Add Hawke, Reid, Chisholm, Swan, Pearce, Boothby, Bass, Braddon where betting suggests Labor. Interesting battles in Longman, Bennelong and Zoe Daniel looks solid in Goldstein. Bandt and Wilkie certainties.
I watched some of the 2020 Mad as Hell Christmas Special tonight. A lot of what I watched was about rorts and the promise of a federal ICAC. I have to say, what I saw of the episode was still very topical.
Mr Ed says:
Monday, May 16, 2022 at 11:07 pm
Another day gone with no problems for Albo. So it’s still 68 to start. Add Hawke, Reid, Chisholm, Swan, Pearce, Boothby, Bass, Braddon where betting suggests Labor. Interesting battles in Longman, Bennelong and Zoe Daniel looks solid in Goldstein. Bandt and Wilkie certainties.
中华人民共和国
I would bet on that Mr Ed.
If Labor had their time again I don’t think they would have parachuted Keneally into Fowler, she has no connection to the electorate, it’s the Labor version of Liberals taking their affluent heartland seats for granted. That said I’d be surprised if Dai Le wins, if she was a more centrist candidate she would stand a better chance but she’s basically an independent Liberal. Would think ppl will hold their noses and vote for their economic interests…will be an interesting seat to watch on Saturday.
So it’s push poll…hehe
“According to research seen by this newspaper and conducted by Laidlaw Campaigns and Counsel, Ms Keneally’s primary vote has collapsed by nearly 13 points to 42 per cent.
The news comes as Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese prepares to visit the electorate Wednesday to shore up support for the former premier in what had been considered a safe Labor electorate.
In a further twist, the researchers asked participants a series of questions about Ms Keneally, the importance of living locally, her record as Premier, and their general impressions of both candidates before again asking them who they would vote for.
After pollsters raised these issues with participants, Ms Keneally’s primary vote fell by a further ten points to 32 per cent. ”
https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/national/federal-election/kristina-keneallys-support-collapsing-in-fowler-as-albo-rushes-in-to-help/news-story/802aed62cbbc9d1f3c8f2bb066b8a6bc?amp
I guarantee you KKK will win. I have been through 40 years of Australian election observation and none of this ‘XYZ’ is at risk because they are a blow in, ever changes a seat. It’s all nonsense and Andrew Charlton is also going to be just fine.
Who ever wins the election is in for a torrid few years, at the least. China’s economy is tanking. Supply chain problems. More bush fires, floods and plagues. Likelihood of wars including in our own back yard. This will be a shitty election to win.
Late Riser says:
…
As I don’t dare to predict, can I please have my dream result.
ALP/LNP/KAP/GRN/CA/Teal/other
95/44/1/1/1/4/5 Frednk , May-16 11.21 pm
Doesn’t make Barnaby leader of the opposition, but close enough
Why no Bulldozer?
“Liberals in city electorates are launching final attempts to woo undecided voters by promoting endorsements from Treasurer Josh Frydenberg on the key issue of climate change without any mention of Prime Minister Scott Morrison.
The Liberal Party’s most senior Victorian leader is being used to defend party colleagues in some of the toughest contests in NSW against “teal” independents including Allegra Spender in the blue-ribbon seat of Wentworth.”
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/city-liberals-turn-to-frydenberg-on-climate-to-defend-their-seats-20220516-p5alsw.html
“pm ignites superannuation culture war …….”
Headline at The Age
It appears to me that this sexist, racist and elitist “government” is indeed a “government” for culture wars
Seats like Fowler are generally just disrespected, people are assumed to be politically disengaged migrants with little social capital and so a blow-in can just fly under the radar. The risk in this election is you’ve got a well known local candidate in competition to that.
frednk @ #1052 Monday, May 16th, 2022 – 11:21 pm
Sometimes dreams come true.
😴 😴 😴
ALP/LNP/KAP/GRN/CA/Teal/other
95/44/1/1/1/4/5 frednk, May-16 23:21
😴 😴 😴
@Late Riser
74/ 67/ 1/ 1/ 1/ / 7
A few rants…
I would ask posters not to refer to someone as ‘a Jew’ but more ‘a Jewish person’ – the latter is affirming of shared humanity. I guess I’d like caution around language, given how anti-Semitism has been stoked and exploited, particularly in the mid-20th century.
I would also ask that KKK not be used in relation to Kristina Keneally. They are not her initials. They do, however, link us to an ugly and deadly American racist movement.
Upnorth at 11.17 – spot, absolute, dead-set, A-grade push polling. I wouldn’t even bother with the grain/pillar/truckload of salt. The company is a complete unknown – the fact it is a ‘campaigns’ company suggests anything but rigorous polling methods. As you rightly point out, the text quoted shows a clear effort to ‘guide’ respondents into thinking negatively about Keneally.
The negative effort against Keneally may result in a small swing against Labor. Whether she’ll need preferences is probably the more accurate location of any ‘toss-up.’
Got it, Magnetar
Anyone else “having a go” (sorry) I’ll pick it up from here in the morning.
My guess for seats (ALP/LNP/KAP/GRN/Teal/Oth):
70/72/1/2/6/-
Regarding other matters: https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/may/16/adam-bandt-outlines-seven-demands-for-labor-in-greens-balance-of-power-wishlist
My commentary: A pathetic play, even by the Greens’ standards. Bandt should at least wait until it’s clear that his mob have the numbers to make demands stick. If the Greens underperform their polls as usual, he’ll have antagonized the Government and have no ability to make it stick. Not only that, making the demands before Election Day only fuels the Murdochracy’s smear campaign that “ALP = GREENS!!one!1”, persuading at least a few punters to swap their votes back to the Coalition – to keep the Greens out.
At least Scummo’s grateful for the assist from Mr. Bandt, I’m sure. Nitwit.
The fact that Albanese supposedly is visiting Fowler on Wednesday is an indication to me that Keneally is not as safe there as you might think.
I am no Keneally fan, I think her supposed worth to Labor is very overrated.
My mate Greg Rudd does raise a good question above about Dai Lee and who is backing or funding her campaign in Fowler.
Anyone on the ground in SA’s Grey that can provide update from the ground?
Keneally strikes me as someone who knows how to prosecute a case in Parliament but is not a very good local representative. Probably why she was in the Senate.
On other Electoral Matters, Bangkok will have its first Election for Governor in 10 years on Sunday. Big tip opposition backed candidate will get up. Will the Army allow it? That’s the question. But no more Polling here.
“Opinion pollsters and the media are barred from disclosing opinion poll results related to Bangkok’s gubernatorial and council elections from now until the actual polls close at 5 pm on May 22nd, according to Samran Tanpanich, head of the Bangkok Election Commission.
He said that the prohibition is intended to prevent the use of opinion poll results to the advantage or disadvantage of election candidates, explaining that eligible voters may use the results to vote for the leading or underdog candidates.”
https://www.thaipbsworld.com/no-more-report-on-opinion-poll-results-allowed-until-after-bangkok-local-elections/
Late Riser @ #1460 Monday, May 16th, 2022 – 11:02 pm
Sorry for the inconvenience, but I think either I misunderstood what was meant to be guessed, or you misunderstood my guess.
My guesses regarding final numbers is:
Labor 91-92, Coalition 44-45, Greens 2-3, KAP 1, Ind 11-12.
For the purposes of an exact answer for this guessing comp…
92/44/1/2/1/10/1
Or in a more human-readable format – ALP 92, LNP 44, KAP 1, GRN 2, CA 1, Teal 10, Other 1.
Note: for Teal, I’m including all HoR Climate200-backed candidates, which includes Haines and Wilkie – with the exception of Sharkie, who is included under CA. “Other” contains a Voices candidate.
Prepared to give my guesstimation with 5 days to go as I can’t see anything changing much at this point.
PV:
LNP: 34%
ALP: 37%
GRN: 12%
ONP: 5%
UAP: 5%
Ors: 7%
2PP:
LNP: 45.7%
ALP: 54.3%
Seats won final:
LNP: 58
ALP: 82
GRN: 2
Ors: 9
Time (AEST) that the winner is declared by AG: 9:00pm
Loser concedes: 10:00pm
I have seen a couple of people suggesting the Greens will win an extra seat or two. Which extra seats are likely to go to the Greens?
The Greens are roughies in three Brisbane seats (according to sportsbet)
$3.75 in Labor held seat of Griffith and $4.5 in Brisbane and $4 in Ryan
They are also $8 in Higgins (Labor $2.6)
Most likely outcome is they remain with 1 seat.
https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/05/16/move-it-or-lose-it/comment-page-30/#comment-3908708
This reveals a lot about Dai Le and who she really is. Namely a common variety conservative opportunist.
https://www.illawarramercury.com.au/story/4076280/mike-baird-favourite-dai-le-being-squeezed-out-of-another-liberal-preselection/?cs=4012
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-08-17/nsw-liberal-party-suspends-fairfield-councillor-dai-le/7750278
What is also in play is that Le has former Labor Mayor Frank Carbone in her corner.
From I can see there are some issues with Labor in the Fairfield/Cabramatta area which caused Sussex St to parachute KK as a clean skin. I mean Labor went backwards in local government elections while in the Blue Mountains Labor thumped both the Liberals and the Greens convincingly so it is something that Sussex St might be worth holding an inquiry into.
Scott my thoughts are Higgins, Brisbane, Griffith, Ryan, Macnamara and Wills are outside chances of gains to the Greens but if you consider the chances combined they are a better than 50/50 chance of gaining one imo.
Sportsbet has the Greens with one seat at $1.28
You can get $14 for the Greens candidate in Wills
ALP/LNP/KAP/GRN/CA/Teal/other
71/70 /1 /1 /1 /2 /2
Couple x out in the outer outer burbs, couple of kids. Dad picks orders in a warehouse, Mum styles hair in a local salon.. Parents have no money, live paycheck to paycheck, stuck in private rental, if they can’t renew the lease might have to get rid of the dog to find a new place.
Along come the Tories, “just raid your super and all your housing problems are solved” – this will win them votes.
I think there will be an array of seats in which Labor will not figure in the final count. These seats include Curtin, Kooyong, Goldstein, Nicholls, Wentworth, North Sydney, MacKellar, Indi, Mayo, Kennedy, Warringah and Clark. There may be one or two more – Cowper and Hughes come to mind. So there will be at least 14 seats that Labor cannot win because it will be knocked out before the final throwing of the prefs.
That means there will be 137 seats theoretically available to Labor. It holds 68 of these already, and the new seat of Hawke is a notional Labor seat. So Labor have 69/137 possible seats. That is, it goes into the election with a bare majority in these possible seats. One seat is held by a political apostate (a Green). So Labor have 69/136 possible seats and 67 are held by the Lying Reactionaries. To win a majority in the House, Labor have to win a net 7 of these 67 Reactionary-held seats.
A very tight path to victory would see Labor succeed in Swan, Pearce or Hasluck (but not all three), Boothby or Sturt but not both, and one of Chisholm, Higgins or Deakin (but not all three), Bass or Braddon (but not both), 2 of Reid, Robertson, Banks, Lindsay and Bennelong, and 2 of Flynn, Brisbane, Dickson, Forde, Petrie, Ryan and Longman, while maybe also losing a seat or two as well.
In a very tight election, a plausible minimum would see Labor win 8 and lose 1 (and though I couldn’t say where the loss might be, suppose it’s in coal-minded Hunter, where the wretch, Bandt, has been campaigning for the Lying Reactionaries).
In a swinging-for-change election, the top side for Labor would be to win 22 seats and lose none.
So that’s a pretty wide span..from a bare 76 to as many as 91 seats. I think we can’t really predict the outcome. The results depend on the prefs of Runaway Reactionaries. Will they pref Labor or will they cling to the aprons of the Reactionaries? We won’t know the answer until the votes are counted.
Where will the prefs of Lite, ON, UAP, Lib-Dems, NLP and other minor 3rd voice candidates go? Morgan’s respondent-allocated polling suggests the pref flow to Labor will be significantly better in 2022 than it was in 2019. But will it?
There are wall-to-wall campaigns by Labor-phobic reactionary voices. Reactionary politics is a shambles. This should help Labor. To win, Labor need their prefs. Hmmm…we just didn’t know where the prefs will go.
About the only thing we could say with confidence is the Lying Reactionaries will be unable to secure a majority. Everything else is pure guesswork.
Voodoo, a thought bubble 1 week out from an election is probably not going to be that persuasive. The truth is neither major party has any policy that will realistically make housing more affordable. It’s a ticking timebomb.