The final Resolve Strategic poll for the Age/Herald campaign provides evidence for the long-delayed narrowing, with Labor down three points on the primary vote since the mid-campaign poll to 31% and the Coalition up a point to 34%. The Greens are down a point from an improbable height last time to 14%, while One Nation are up one to 6%, the United Australia Party are down one to 4%, independents are up two to 6% and others are steady on 4%. The accompanying report provides a two-party preferred result based on historic preference flows of 52-48 in favour of Labor, compared with 54-46 last time. Anthony Albanese has nonetheless narrowed the gap on preferred prime minister, which is in from 39-33 to to 40-36, and he is up three on approval to 40% and steady on disapproval at 48%. Scott Morrison is up two on approval to 43% and up one on disapproval to 50%.
The poll was conducted Thursday through to today from a sample of 2049 compared with the usual 1400 or so, because it “added several hundred telephone responses to the customary online responses to give it a larger base”. This hasn’t made the pollster any more generous with its breakdowns, which remain limited to gender and the three largest states. By my calculation, the Coalition leads by around 51.5-48.5 in New South Wales, which is fully ten points stronger for the Coalition than the previous poll and suggests no swing compared with 2019. Labor’s 53-47 lead in Victoria is also about the same as the 2019 result, and four points weaker for Labor than the previous poll. However, the Coalition is now credited with a lead of 53-47 in Queensland, representing a roughly 5.5% swing to Labor and a shift in Labor’s favour of at least four points compared with the previous poll. The “rest of Australia” measure has shifted around four points in Labor since the previous poll, and around seven points compared with the 2019 result.
With increasing talk about women dooming the Coalition to defeat, the poll offers an interesting take on the gender gap in crediting the Greens 19% support among women compared with 9% among men, feeding into a four-point gap on two-party preferred. Morrison’s personal ratings are in fact quite a bit stronger among women than in the previous result, resulting in only a modest distinction on his net approval, although Morrison leads 45-37 among men but is tied with Albanese at 36-36 among women.
UPDATE: David Crowe of the Age/Herald offers a two-party preferred of 52-48 in one article and 51-49 in another. My calculation splits it right down the middle.
UPDATE 2: The final Essential Research poll of the campaign is probably available on The Guardian’s site by the time you read this – Peter van Onselen tweeted last night that it had Labor leading 51-49. Also just out is an Utting Research poll for The West Australian showing teal independent Kate Chaney leading Liberal member Celia Hammond 52-48 in Curtin, from primary votes of 38% for Hammond, 32% for Chaney, 13% for Labor, 9% for the Greens and 3% for the United Australia Party. The poll was conducted Monday from a sample of 514. All this and a lot more will be covered in a new post tomorrow.
Sohar @ #147 Tuesday, May 17th, 2022 – 7:48 pm
Chefs Kiss – what a beautiful question
This site will be a cesspool by Friday. It’s like an out of control pinball machine.
Is “Scotty 2.0” just Scotty 1.0 with Jenny in tow?
Wat Tyler @ #133 Tuesday, May 17th, 2022 – 7:45 pm
There’s a hole in your budget dear Labor dear Labor……genius.
Really, I mean it.
Childish genius.
This was a commercial poll from Resolve, Channel 9 and Foolman are on the nose after the first debate and watching the news in the pub tonight my first thought was that this poll was a gambit to regain some trashed credibility and take control of the narrative. Only thing was, Grimshaw had the balls.
Has the smell of dead fish about it to me but that’s just a gut reaction.
I predict a hung parliament, with another election on the cards soonish. Do not expect much to be done in the years coming. What i will say is that Australia is going to be a basket case within five years. Alot of homeless, jobless and nothing done on climate change.
If oil prices continue to go through the roof the whole pack of cards is going to collapse because of the amount of private and now public debt we have.
C@tmomma @ #118 Tuesday, May 17th, 2022 – 7:38 pm
People who get polled.
Lars Von Trier:
Tuesday, May 17, 2022 at 7:40 pm
[‘Anybody still feel Jason Clare is a future leader after seeing how the respective housing policies have played out?’]
Probably not but he was obeying instructions, against his best interests. Perhaps he’s thinking long-term? He has heaps of charisma, way short of Hawke but a work in progress.
The PV looks just wrong, greens on 14, Hansonites on 6, indies understated 6, and even palmers on 4 and then another 4 for other leftovers.
mark 22 @ #149 Tuesday, May 17th, 2022 – 7:52 pm
‘Australia is going to be a basket case within five years. Alot of homeless, jobless and nothing done on climate change.’
Fingers crossed.
If they vote for it they deserve everything they get.
Oh ffs people. I go and have dinner and there’s a new thread and again, I jump in on page 4.
Chill the fuck out!!
Mundo
If the Liberals finish on 35 they will lose 14% of their primary vote in an election where they need a swing to them to form a majority.
Lets sit back and listen to some music – everyone needs to calm down:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dkk9gvTmCXY
I’ve actually stopped worrying about the result and am more interested in seeing if the polling errors from 2019 are rectified.
I’ll be interested to see the preference flows and if both majors are low 30’s then it will be interesting to see the final 2pp outcome.
If the lnp get back in then the average voter wants to stick with the status quo – I still think an alp majority/minority is more than likely – although if the lnp do get back in they may have some economic difficulties to contend with.
All we can do is sit and wait – I’ll vote on saturday (i’m in a safe labor seat) – would I rather a small alp win this time or the lnp to get back in and really demonstrate why they should be booted?
Ugh, why are some people getting so emotional?
Not to mention it’s just one poll. I’ll be very honest here; elections in Australia or maybe NZ or maybe a non-US democracy are simply not that consequential. For most people, life goes on after an election.
As some wag on The Guardian blog commented:
Labor: Loose unit
LNP: Lose unit
If further polling does point to tightening between the major parties, please may I request no one post ‘GAME ON!’?
It’s hackiness is in line with ‘The race that stops a nation!’ & ‘Xmas is a time of giving!’.
Thank you.
There’s a hole in your budget dear Labor dea……SHUUUUUUUTTTT UUUOPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPP
Addie @ #159 Tuesday, May 17th, 2022 – 7:56 pm
Too late.
A few posts back.
Mundo
BANG ON
2 sets of rules in this country.
(The Lorax says:
Tuesday, May 17, 2022 at 6:56 pm
Resolve has a 13 point collapse in the Labor’s primary in NSW in a little over two weeks, and a 10 point collapse in the LNP’s primary in Queensland over the same period. It’s just nonsense.)
And I find also very strange of ONP on 6% and UAP on 4%.
mundo @ #157 Tuesday, May 17th, 2022 – 7:52 pm
Exactly. Hence a skew in the numbers towards people who still do. And that tends to be older people who prefer the Coalition.
THE GUESSING GAME, May-17 12:37
PV (FINAL)
ALP 37.8 to 35.6 LNP Median
ALP 38.0 to 37.0 LNP Mode
ALP 37.4 to 35.3 LNP Mean
ALP 39.5 to 37.0 LNP Max
ALP 34.0 to 31.0 LNP Min
14 Respondents
THE GUESSING GAME, May-17 15:46
TPP (FINAL)
ALP 53.0 to 47.0 LNP Median
ALP 53.0 to 47.0 LNP Mode
ALP 53.2 to 46.8 LNP Mean
ALP 55.4 to 49.0 LNP Max
ALP 51.0 to 44.6 LNP Min
49 Respondents
THE GUESSING GAME, May-17 15:46
SEATS (OTN)
ALP | LNP | KAP | GRN | CA | Teal|other
79 | 54 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 Median
#VALUE! Mode
79 | 54 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 Mean
87 | 64 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 8 Max
71 | 43 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 Min
9 Respondents
THE GUESSING GAME, May-17 17:22
FINAL SEAT COUNTS
ALP | LNP | KAP | GRN | CA | Teal|other
80 | 62 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 8 Median
82 | 60 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 9 Mode
80 | 62 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 Mean
95 | 75 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 10 | 13 Max
70 | 44 | 1 | 1 | | | 1 Min
69 Respondents
(Note: Don’t try summing the seat count statistics. It doesn’t work that way. You’re unlikely to get to 151.)
Mundo at 731 – “I’ve already predicted a hung parliament.”
Pop the bubbly then with Phil Coorey, Chris Uhlmann and every other liberal stool pigeon who pretend to believe in a Coalition victory.
Labor will score a solid but unspectacular win… which is why anonymous “pensioner” letters praising Dutts are being stuffed in Dickson letterboxes…(he will get a scare there but hold on, but if they’re worried there that’s a sign)
Yes, the disastrous “destroy-your-own-super-to-buy-a-depreciating-house” LNP pivot will attract lots of support but it won’t be enough, although ironically if they’d made it their opening election pitch they might have gone fairly close I reckon
Good bloody grief, doesn’t ANYONE still know Flanders and Swann?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3ecEMxrdULQ
(I could do a riposte for the benefit of the ALP but I’d need to add a prefix to “hole” which, like my preferred rhyme for “bucket”, can’t go out in prime time.)
Drum roll,
The sub plot,
Just before.
And there
Maybe some more,
Poor Fellow My Country.
For,
Sunday Too Far Away.
Nah,
Tell ’em they’re dreamin’,
Coz it got no meanin’,
And so it goes.
Just a Wake in Fright.
For,
We’re a “Weird Mob”.
The “Kingswood Country” PM,
FFS!
Mundo do not think that Labor is going to be able to do much about it with a Senate controlled by Hansen and Libs which is odds on.. Petrol prices would be 2. 50 without the excise cuts and that feeds into freight, food and many other costs.. The only way to cool it is rising interest rates which means bang bang on the unbelievable mortgage prices.. It is going to be worse than 1991 because this time governments cannot bail us out and also wages are low…
Resolve poll is the best news ever!
It will supercharge the remaining electorate to say hell no !
Even better, it might move the betting so I can get better than those stubborn $1.35 ALP odds.
Keep calm and carry on Bludgers
Dr Fumbles Mcstupid @ #159 Tuesday, May 17th, 2022 – 7:53 pm
All over the shop.
mark 22 @ #169 Tuesday, May 17th, 2022 – 7:59 pm
It won’t be Labor’s problem.
mikehilliard says:
Tuesday, May 17, 2022 at 7:49 pm
This site will be a cesspool by Friday. It’s like an out of control pinball machine.
中华人民共和国
Errr I thought it was a “cesspit” already. Last night PB was being compared to Dads Army and we all know who Frazer is (Mundo that’s you).
Can’t wait for Friday night I reckon I will get half pissed as practice for Saturday – punters will be “necking” themselves left right and centre . Win Lose or Draw – Upnorth is staying – Upnorth.
Jesus mundo.
I just can’t.
mundo,
Going to tell Ross Hart your thoughts? I bet you don’t have the guts.
Dr Fumbles Mcstupid @ #159 Tuesday, May 17th, 2022 – 7:53 pm
Curious, was anyone here polled for this?
Even Kamahl is singing the Sounds of Goodbye to the Libs.
Unless I’m mistaken, Resolve was not around in 2019.
They have not learnt the lessons of the polling errors evident there
Will let others chew over this Resolve poll. Newspoll and Essential results will be informative.
My interest is in how the Teals and Indies fare.
Success for a few of them could be the deciding factor in determining not who wins, but who takes Government with their Supply and Confidence support.
@ The Tory housing policy goes straight at a Labor voting demographic, low to lower middle income renters and says ‘vote Tory get out of the private rental nightmare and onto the real estate hyperinflation gravy train’.
The vast majority of this demographic will not vote early, the timing is perfect.Might yet win them the election.
I used to be on the YouGov panel, but dropped out after too many ‘your demographic has been filled already’ rejections…
Resolve strategic are the same polling company that predicted the liberal party would win the SA state election.
I’d throw the poll in the bin.
Asha,
“These swings could just be the effects of switching from a purely online poll to online mixed with phone calls rather than any real change in the state of play. As usual, it’s difficult to know what to make of Resolve.”
You, sir, are a voice of calm reason.
There is pretty much nobody in Australia who is having the thought that “If the unemployment rate is 4.0 I’ll put Labor ahead of the LNP, but if it’s 3.9 I’ll put the LNP ahead of Labor.” Anybody who is sensitive to employment issues knows that under-employment and precarious employment are much bigger problems than unemployment.
Unless this Resolve Strategic poll is corroborated by a high quality poll in the next few days, it should probably just be dismissed as an aberrant result. I saw it being reported breathlessly by Chris Uhlmann and a commercial news anchor as evidence that the election is “too close to call” but in reality this is weak sauce unless it’s backed up by something credible.
Jude says:
Tuesday, May 17, 2022 at 7:55 pm
Ugh, why are some people getting so emotional?
Not to mention it’s just one poll.
———————————–
Particular Resolve has questions whether it is a opinion poll, as it is funded by Morrison office for mainly lib/nats marketing
and 34% is horrific for the lib/nats
My prediction: Resolve will be a laughing stock by Sat night.
The “funny” thing is the Lib’s housing policy benefits someone like me, with a signficantly higher super balance than for men my age and with a high income, way more than than those it’s been messaged at.
Jude says:
Tuesday, May 17, 2022 at 7:55 pm
Ugh, why are some people getting so emotional?
Set aside it’s one poll. I’ll be very honest here; elections in Australia or maybe NZ or maybe a non-US democracy just are not that consequential. For most people, life goes on after an election.
__________________________
It sure does, unless you have to directly deal with the worst aspects of the Govt and are faced with being put on the indue card.
This election matters alot in terms of the direction we are going and the whole thin end of the wedge -more cuts to medicare, use your super for living expenses in an emergency, indue card for welfare, no action on climate, money for gun and bombs for an imaginary war with china, tax write off and cuts as a way to address cost of living, profits over minimum wages for the poor, an this is the SfM just “warming up”
That why lib/nats do not mention the resolve poll, as it will make people notice that resolve is funded by Morrison’s office and wonder are the taxpayers funding the company to do lib/nats marketing
@Lachlan:
“ In the six Resolve polls conducted in 2022, they’ve had the ALP primary on 40, 31, 36, 32, 35, and now 31.
In the same six polls they had the LNP primary on 29, 31, 34, 35, 30, 34, and 34.
The Greens – 11, 11, 11, 12, 16, 15.
Good luck making any sense of that.”
__________
Looking at those figures, It’s difficult to see how Resolve has any creditability: Labor recovered 4% after ‘gaff gate’ yet has now dropped 3 points … after Albo went more than OK in the debates and had. A pretty solid campaign launch. If anything, folk seemed pissed off with further ‘gotcha questions’ to Albo so one doubters any further stumbles actually cut through – which seems to be born out in Albo’s personal ratings rising according to this pollster over the past fortnight.
Right now, ‘the tightening’ appears to be limited to the two most suspect pollsters in the field: Morgan and Resolve.
What is actually going down?
Fuck knows. The more reputable and established pollsters have recorded zero narrowing in the second half of last week. That’s only days ago. Could ScoMo’s super for homes bribe had that much of an immediate impact? Possible, but I’m not sure Morgan would have picked that up, and Resolve pumping up their online survey sample by an extra 600 folk in telephone phoning seems to be … extremely suspect. To say the least.
I doubt we will get a clearer picture until the last cluster of Ipsos, Essential and Newspoll lands.
On a final note: I guess I’m to blame for this ‘narrowing’. Having deliberately played the role of Jeremiah on bludger for this election campaign, I came out with a very tentative punt at a 53% 2PP result and 81 seats to Labor prediction earlier today. I’m sorry. I tempted the political gods and they are angry with me: I’ll be over in the same corner as mundo for the next 4 days. Do carry on.
I’m going to take a break for a bit. If anyone still wants to change their guesses or leave a new guess you might be better off on the old thread so it doesn’t get lost here. But I’ll do my best. Chin up.
In regard to the Resolve poll, I think we can safely say that the Labor PV will NOT be as low as 31. So in that respect the poll is demonstrably wrong. Just how wrong remains to be seen.
Also, if we quite reasonably assume that Labor’s PV will be higher than 31, the 2pp of 52-48 will most likely be higher as well; and it doesn’t need to go much higher than that for Labor to be in a sound election winning position.
So no need to panic IMO. Let’s just wait and see what the other polls have got to say.
Nicholas,
I agree.