The final Resolve Strategic poll for the Age/Herald campaign provides evidence for the long-delayed narrowing, with Labor down three points on the primary vote since the mid-campaign poll to 31% and the Coalition up a point to 34%. The Greens are down a point from an improbable height last time to 14%, while One Nation are up one to 6%, the United Australia Party are down one to 4%, independents are up two to 6% and others are steady on 4%. The accompanying report provides a two-party preferred result based on historic preference flows of 52-48 in favour of Labor, compared with 54-46 last time. Anthony Albanese has nonetheless narrowed the gap on preferred prime minister, which is in from 39-33 to to 40-36, and he is up three on approval to 40% and steady on disapproval at 48%. Scott Morrison is up two on approval to 43% and up one on disapproval to 50%.
The poll was conducted Thursday through to today from a sample of 2049 compared with the usual 1400 or so, because it “added several hundred telephone responses to the customary online responses to give it a larger base”. This hasn’t made the pollster any more generous with its breakdowns, which remain limited to gender and the three largest states. By my calculation, the Coalition leads by around 51.5-48.5 in New South Wales, which is fully ten points stronger for the Coalition than the previous poll and suggests no swing compared with 2019. Labor’s 53-47 lead in Victoria is also about the same as the 2019 result, and four points weaker for Labor than the previous poll. However, the Coalition is now credited with a lead of 53-47 in Queensland, representing a roughly 5.5% swing to Labor and a shift in Labor’s favour of at least four points compared with the previous poll. The “rest of Australia” measure has shifted around four points in Labor since the previous poll, and around seven points compared with the 2019 result.
With increasing talk about women dooming the Coalition to defeat, the poll offers an interesting take on the gender gap in crediting the Greens 19% support among women compared with 9% among men, feeding into a four-point gap on two-party preferred. Morrison’s personal ratings are in fact quite a bit stronger among women than in the previous result, resulting in only a modest distinction on his net approval, although Morrison leads 45-37 among men but is tied with Albanese at 36-36 among women.
UPDATE: David Crowe of the Age/Herald offers a two-party preferred of 52-48 in one article and 51-49 in another. My calculation splits it right down the middle.
UPDATE 2: The final Essential Research poll of the campaign is probably available on The Guardian’s site by the time you read this – Peter van Onselen tweeted last night that it had Labor leading 51-49. Also just out is an Utting Research poll for The West Australian showing teal independent Kate Chaney leading Liberal member Celia Hammond 52-48 in Curtin, from primary votes of 38% for Hammond, 32% for Chaney, 13% for Labor, 9% for the Greens and 3% for the United Australia Party. The poll was conducted Monday from a sample of 514. All this and a lot more will be covered in a new post tomorrow.
Just got a message on my phone:
“Hello. It’s John Howard calling from Sydney, for the Liberal party.”
Surprised they haven’t got Menzies’ daughter on there with him.
When is Ipsos final poll supposed to drop?
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/oct/26/scott-morrison-sent-additional-500000-worth-of-publicly-funded-covid-market-research
A second major taxpayer-funded market research project about community attitudes to Covid-19 undertaken by Jim Reed, a long-term researcher for the Liberal party pollster Crosby Textor, has been handed to both the prime minister and the treasurer’s political offices.
Officials from the Treasury on Monday confirmed during a Senate estimates hearing the market research, valued at more than $500,000, had informed a $15m taxpayer-funded advertising campaign about economic recovery, and the underlying research reports had been emailed to Scott Morrison and Josh Frydenberg’s offices.
Last week, officials confirmed a separate trove of market research about the coronavirus undertaken by Resolve Strategic, Reed’s current firm, under a contract worth $541,750, had also gone to the prime minister’s office – prompting Labor to raise the alarm about “thinly disguised political research” being funded by Australian taxpayers rather than by the Liberal party, as would be the convention.
Given the sense of doom here, it would be hilarious to get a snap shot of the labor brains trust in a huddle.
Would losing to Morrison a second time trigger a reset. Perhaps a review from someone who isn’t a ultra conservative type.
The ALP remains extraordinarily lucky the greens focus on a few seats and a tiny particular demographic.
When people don’t like a poll the conspiracy theories come out. How about just pointing out it is a single poll from an as yet untested polling outfit?
Time to take a deep breath which ever party you support.
This is one poll in a series of polls . Each pollster has some weakness in their sampling process and how they constrain/ scale back the outlying responses.Thats why Poll Bludgers melded poll of polls ie Bludger Track is the best guide.
The same thing happens with weather forecasting, especially for cyclones .The BOM who run their own model , then produce a consensus model that includes CSIRO,NASA,US Navy , European models.
I would be very interested to know if Resolve used the same “ panels” as previously or it in any way change how it “ forces “ preference allocations.
Lets see what Bludger Track says Friday.
The super policy is bullshit for young, low-mid income earners.
They simply don’t have enough super to get near a deposit.
It’s another boondoggle for the wealthy.
@Warrigal – I remember Flanders and Swann! As the owner of an older home ‘The Gasman Cometh’ is my anthem.
I don’t know that any monologue ever beats ‘Los Olividors’ and the camel song (‘In the Desert) is comedy distilled to its pure essence.
I hadn’t actually heard There’s a Hole in my Budget, before – thanks.
Hopefully you will wear an appropriate hat on Saturday night 😉
ltep says:
Tuesday, May 17, 2022 at 8:13 pm
When people don’t like a poll the conspiracy theories come out. How about just pointing out it is a single poll from an as yet untested polling outfit?
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Its not a untested polling outfit , it is a liberal party marketing outfit funded by taxpayers
Andrew_Earlwood
No way can you claim all the credit, idiots have been tempting fate for over a year.
“This site will be a cesspool by Friday. It’s like an out of control pinball machine.”
2019 was nuts enough, people are even more keyed up now.
Though I used to be much more involved in US politics and I have to say my US friends on a forum like this would probably have done a Jonestown if Obama didn’t win after 8 years of George W Bush (or if Trump didn’t lose in 2020), we’re positively austere by comparison.
You can’t joyfully believe a 57-43 (Ipsos) but immediately dismiss a 51-49 (Resolve).
While we have to give due credit to a formal poll, this one is really odd…..
Only three States polled….
A mixture of data collection…
Guesswork about what the rest of the country is doing…..
A massive drop in NSW in just two weeks coupled with a massive uplift in the Primary for Labor in Queensland ……
Albanese improving in his numbers…..
The number 14 for the Greens?
And up ticks for the other bibs and bobs of parties….
This poll seems counter intuitive to me………
As some have been pointing out, a PV for the LNP of just 34 is hardly winning territory……
Amy Remeikis
@AmyRemeikis
·
24m
I know what the polls say, but don’t discount the mood in this final week. There is a better chance than a lot of people seem to think of the Morrison gov being re-elected. The path to victory is easier for the Coalition and the progressive vote is split in a lot of electorates
Just asking, why is Bludger Track not including the 2pp result from Resolve? Their previous one wasn’t included either.
If, by this time next week, Labor looks sure of 76 seats on a 2PP of 51.8, I will be perfectly happy!
Plus I’m confident that Labor will work happily with Bandt, Wilkie, Sharkie, Steggall and most of the other cross benchers, most of the time, so the confected “chaos” of 2010 to 2013 won’t be getting much traction.
Keep on working for a win Labor folk. Saturday will be a big day
It shows that channel 9 who Peter Costello is the chairman of
being dodgy not notifying the viewers about resolve and the connections with the liberal party/Morrison
@Jimbocool
All I can say is “hear the status cymbals clash”
Voodoo Blues,
You’ve got to have super to be able to use super. and that voting demographic already spent most of it thanks to scomo.
“the progressive vote is split in a lot of electorates”
I never knew we have FPTT or OPV at federal level.
Sky (Paul Murray) just said the guardian poll tomorrow (essential) will show something similar to resolve (said been reliably informed) so something is happening in the last week maybe.
Imagine this place if Morrison hangs on.
nath,
some people just want to see the world burn. Literally!
Wow one poll out the last 100 and people on here are thinking the hole in bucket shite us genius, you have got to be joking. Labor will win this time even sky news zealots know it. I’ll finish this off with a joke , if they win it will be the Johnny the H wot won it!!!!!!
I don’t agree with Amy re: the split vote – but she’s right, the chance of re-election has ALWAYS been there.
There’s a difference between not expecting the Government to be re-elected but also being live to the possibility they could.
ltep @ #203 Tuesday, May 17th, 2022 – 7:43 pm
That’s my view. I try not to react to single polls. However, if there is a bit of doomposting or “bedwetting” as it is obnoxiously phrased (in a way that is reminiscent of the attitude of people here in 2019), it’s good if it brings everybody back down to earth and thinking realistically again – instead of measuring the drapes and making wild speculations about the aftermath of an imagined Labor landslide that hasn’t been seen since 1949.
Rex Douglas says:
Tuesday, May 17, 2022 at 7:02 pm
If Labor is defeated again, the party as it stands is cactus.
There would have to be a complete overhaul and total restructure with a totally new reach.
If Labor lose it will simply show that nothing much changes in Australian politics: the Lying Reactionaries, their trainees, mimics, clones, auxiliaries, sidekicks, shotguns, allies, dupes, agents and utterly clueless offspring really do have the allegiance of voters, and their efforts to deride, defile, defame, denounce and defeat the party of working people continue to pay off.
If Labor lose, be sure as well that the editors of Rexology will blame the victim.
michael says:
Tuesday, May 17, 2022 at 8:19 pm
Sky (Paul Murray) just said the guardian poll tomorrow (essential) will show something similar to resolve (said been reliably informed) so something is happening in the last week maybe.
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That is good for Labor majority government , if the opinion polls show the lib/nats combined primary vote struggling to breach 36%
I did not know Resolve was a Liberal party poll paid for by the taxpayer? Where did this idea come from? In fact, who does own the poll?
@south says:
Tuesday, May 17, 2022 at 8:18 pm
Voodoo Blues,
You’ve got to have super to be able to use super. and that voting demographic already spent most of it thanks to scomo.
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But it is aspirational, all bout using ‘your money’ how ‘you’ want it actually quite a powerful message for the young and ill informed
Kos Samaras has said the polls tomorrow will show similar to Resolve
simm0888 says:
Tuesday, May 17, 2022 at 8:18 pm
“the progressive vote is split in a lot of electorates”
I never knew we have FPTT or OPV at federal level.
The split in the historic Labor-favouring plurality manifests in eternal Labor-phobic campaigning by the cadet Reactionaries, the Q-affiliates, the political apostates, the Greens.
Scott says:
Tuesday, May 17, 2022 at 8:22 pm
michael says:
Tuesday, May 17, 2022 at 8:19 pm
Sky (Paul Murray) just said the guardian poll tomorrow (essential) will show something similar to resolve (said been reliably informed) so something is happening in the last week maybe.
———————
That is good for Labor majority government , if the opinion polls show the lib/nats combined primary vote struggling to breach 36%
__________________
Scott there is a job going for English language spokesperson for the Russian special military operation in Ukraine. You could be a good fit!
I was just sent this by someone who is doing polling duties on Saturday:
“Please refrain from drawing a Dick on your ballot paper … last time, he won!”
”
Lars Von Triersays:
Tuesday, May 17, 2022 at 7:09 pm
Should Labor loose Rex – I think everybody born before 1980 in the Labor caucus will have to leave Parliament. I think Clare O’Neil would be well placed for the Whitlam style re-build underpinned by a platform of electoral reform.
”
Is it possible that Resolve is polling in LNP and marginal seats and not considering safe ALP seats because they have changed their methodology for their last poll before election?
Lars
An interesting thought that there has been a reset.
Both traditional parties have less than 40% PV and the minors combined over 20%
Rather than Pasokification there seems to be a “same-same” meme among a significant proportion of the electorate.
This is reminiscent of the last Dáil election where the traditional Civil War parties (which really are indistinguishable) ended with less than 50%.
Labor will win, probably quite strongly with the votes of a little more than 1 in 3 votes, what happens in the next term will determine if the reset continues
The Hole in the Bucket ad is detested by everyone…..Still, it will be gone by the end of tomorrow…..It is an ear-worm tune and loathed for that reason…Its impact on voting intentions is nil…
The NSW AlP vote from April 30 to May 17 apparently fell from 41% to 28% while the Liberal vote rose from 30% to 38%… think we found the polling error …. With NSW having the largest population and therefore largest weight this would impact the final numbers …. Still looking like ALP low 80’s with 3-4 teals getting up
All jokes aside – it still does look like a narrow Labor win. It was always hard to see Albo outperforming Rudd or Hawke after all. He does have like a -10-14 favourability rating.
“WeWantPaulsays:
Tuesday, May 17, 2022 at 8:13 pm
Given the sense of doom here, it would be hilarious to get a snap shot of the labor brains trust in a huddle.
Would losing to Morrison a second time trigger a reset. Perhaps a review from someone who isn’t a ultra conservative type.
The ALP remains extraordinarily lucky the greens focus on a few seats and a tiny particular demographic.”
The Greens do all what they can to beat Labor on the primary vote. They focus on just about all seats and try to appeal to all the demographics. Their problem is that they simply lack enough primary votes…. Simple!
But in any event, they are perfectly aware that they can defeat the hated Coalition by preferencing the ALP above the local Coalition party in all seats…. Which is exactly what they do everywhere!
Oh, by the way, what sense of “doom”? The only side of politics that’s truly panicking is the Coalition, hence their most recent delusion about the “hung parliament” once they became convinced that a straight win for Scomo was a delusion too far!
So, start thinking about the future of the Liberal party, the Nationals, the LNP and indeed the Coalition after the coming defeat by the hands of the ALP and the further bashing courtesy of the Teals…. The current Scomo delusion has only a 4 days lifespan.
“ Scott there is a job going for English language spokesperson for the Russian special military operation in Ukraine. You could be a good fit!”
You mean the “Special policing operation in The Ukraine” surely, Comrade Commissar?
Antony Green has just released a table of the early voting rates by division – data is to close of polls Monday:
https://antonygreen.com.au/early-voting-by-division/
@SA Bludger
I think both polls are at the extremes, with the answer likely somewhere in the middle. It ain’t gonna be 57-43, but 51-49 seems equally unlikely. Having said that, if Essential and Ipsos are around 52-48 then momentum will clearly be on ScoMo’s side.
nath @ #220 Tuesday, May 17th, 2022 – 7:49 pm
To everyone’s joy, I probably won’t be back to posting with any regularity, regardless of result but I might check out entirely if the Coalition win again. I can’t imagine what another three years in Opposition is going to do to people’s brains online.
“ All jokes aside – it still does look like a narrow Labor win. It was always hard to see Albo outperforming Rudd or Hawke after all. He does have like a -10-14 favourability rating.”
Except history tells us that Labor doesn’t win tight elections from opposition at a federal level. Prove me wrong.
If Morrison wins Nath, there will be a minimum of 10 or so gloaters bragging about how right they were that Labor would lose…They have already been named here so there will be no surprises at all….
Voodoo how many of these young ones have 50,000
– in super, not many me thinks
You need a rogue to put rouge on the pig.
@Lachlan:
“ In the six Resolve polls conducted in 2022, they’ve had the ALP primary on 40, 31, 36, 32, 35, and now 31.
In the same six polls they had the LNP primary on 29, 31, 34, 35, 30, 34, and 34.
The Greens – 11, 11, 11, 12, 16, 15.
Good luck making any sense of that.”
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IF the resolve PVs were a bit more stable over the past polls and not jumping around week by week and we saw a 3ppt drop in the ALP then maybe things might be a bit more credible. The variation in all the PV over the last polls must be a cause of some skeptism, I am calling sample bias as the polling looks very jumpy to say the least
The Advertiser in S.A. seems to be implying that the Libs are at risk of losing a senate seat.