The final Essential Research poll for the campaign has Labor leading by 48% to 46% on the pollster’s “2PP+” measure, in from 49% to 45% a fortnight ago, with the remainder undecided. However, both the Coalition and Labor are steady on the primary vote at 36% and 35%, the change mostly being accounted for by respondent-allocated preferences. For the minor parties, the Greens are down one to 9%, One Nation is up one to 4%, the United Australia Party is down one to 3% and independents are up one to 6%. Leadership ratings are little changed: Scott Morrison is down one on approval to 43% and up one on disapproval to 49%, Anthony Albanese is up one to 42% and steady on 41%, and Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister moves from 40-36 to 40-37.
My reading of the state breakdowns is that the results are likely too strong for the Coalition in Victoria and too weak in New South Wales, at least in relative terms — using previous election flows, Labor leads by about 53-47 in New South Wales and 51-49 in Victoria, respectively compared with 51-49 to the Coalition and around 53.5-46.5 a fortnight ago. The Coalition is credited with a lead of about 52-48 in Queensland, a swing to Labor of over 6%, compared with about 50-50 in the previous poll. Sample sizes here would have been about 500 in New South Wales, 400 in Victoria and 300 in Queensland.
The poll was conducted Wednesday to Tuesday from a sample of 1599. It has made little difference to the BludgerTrack aggregate, since it goes off primary votes which are little changed. The more heavily weighted Newspoll and Ipsos polls that are yet to come stand more chance of moving its needle, which they will want to do in the Coalition’s favour if it is to end up with a two-party preferred reading that I personally would think plausible.
Other polling news:
• The West Australian today had a poll by Utting Research showing independent Kate Chaney leading Liberal member Celia Hammond in Curtin by 52-48 on two-candidate preferred, from primary votes of 38% for Hammond, 32% for Chaney, 13% for Labor, 9% for the Greens and 3% for the United Australia Party. The poll was conducted on Monday from a sample of 514.
• Katherine Murphy of The Guardian reports Labor is “increasingly bullish” about Brisbane and Higgins, and further perceives “opportunity” in Bennelong and Ryan. The report says Labor internal polling has Scott Morrison’s disapproval rating across the four seats at 62%, 65%, 57% and 58% respectively, whereas Anthony Albanese is in the mid-forties in approval and mid-thirties on disapproval.
• Samantha Maiden of news.com.au reports on uComms polls for GetUp! of five seats chosen because of the effects on them of fires and floods. These have Labor member Fiona Phillips leading Liberal challenger Andrew Constance by 57-43 in Gilmore, but Liberal candidate Jerry Nockles leading Labor member Kirsty McBain by 51-49 in Eden-Monaro. Labor’s Peter Cossar is credited with a 55-45 lead over Liberal National Party member Julian Simmonds in Ryan, although his primary vote of 27% is not far clear of the Greens on 22%. Labor member Susan Templeman leads Liberal candidate Sarah Richards by 56-44 in Macquarie, and Nationals member Kevin Hogan leads Labor’s Patrick Deegan by 51-49 in Page, which he won by 9.4% in 2019. I have tended to think this pollster’s results have been flattering to Labor due to a limited weighting frame encompassing only age and gender, a notion disabused here only by the Eden-Monaro result.
• Speaking of which, The Australia Institute has a now dated uComms poll of Higgins from May 2 that had hitherto escaped my notice, showing Liberal member Katie Allen will lose either to Labor by 54-46 or the Greens by 55-45. Using the results of the forced-response follow-up to allocate the initially undecided, the primary votes are Liberal 36.9%, Labor 29.8% and Greens 19.9%, in which case it would clearly be Labor that won the seat.
• Redbridge Group has published full results of its poll for Climate 200 in North Sydney which, as noted here yesterday, had Liberal member Trent Zimmerman on 33.3%, independent Kylea Tink on 23.5% and Labor candidate Catherine Renshaw on 17.8%, with 7.5% undecided. The full report has results on a follow-up prompt for the undecided, and much more besides.
Senate news:
• The Australia Institute has Senate voting intention results for the five mainland states, which suggest the Greens are looking good across the board, One Nation might be a show in New South Wales as well as Queensland, the United Australia Party are competitive in Victoria, a third seat for Labor is in play in Western Australia, and Nick Xenophon might be in a tussle with One Nation for the last place in South Australia. With a national sample of 1002 though, there are naturally wide margins of error on these results. The accompanying report also include interesting data on respondents’ levels of understanding of the Senate voting process.
• The Advertiser reports an “internal party polling” – it does not say whose – of the South Australian Senate race has Labor on 34%, Liberal on 23%, the Greens on 12%, Nick Xenophon on 6%, One Nation on 4% and Rex Patrick on 3%. I imagine the most likely outcome of such a result would be two seats each for Labor and Liberal plus one for the Greens and one for Nick Xenophon. The poll had a sample of 644, with field work dates not disclosed.
• A joint sitting of the Western Australian parliament has just confirmed that Ben Small of the Liberal Party will fill his own Senate vacancy, having addressed the dual citizenship issue that forced his resignation. Small has the third position on the Liberal ticket at Saturday’s election.
Non-polling news:
• Sky News has obtained a voicemail message from 2019 in which Dai Le, who is threatening Kristina Keneally’s effort to use Fowler to move from the Senate to the House of Representatives, stated she still had control of the Liberal Party’s Cabramatta branch despite having been suspended from the party after running as an independent mayoral candidate in 2016. Le has been keen to express her independent credentials in a seat where the Liberal Party has little support.
• Samantha Maiden of news.com.au reports Labor focus groups in Bennelong, Deakin and Pearce registered negative reactions to the Liberal Party’s policy of allowing home buyers to make use of their superannuation.
• The count for the Tasmanian Legislative Council seat of Huon has been completed, with the distribution of preferences resulting in a victory for independent candidate Dean Harriss over Labor’s Toby Thorpe at the final count by 11,840 votes (52.55%) to 10,693 (47.45%). Thorpe led on the primary vote, but Liberal preferences flowed to Harriss more strongly than Greens preferences did to Thorpe. This maintains the numbers in the chamber at four Labor, four Liberal and seven independents, although an ex-Labor member has been replaced by one with a conservative pedigree, his father having served in parliament both as an independent and with the Liberal Party.
Who am I to speak but the last couple of pages scroll through has been underwhelming. Need a bit of poll action, even dodgy ones. I have demand from friends to make my prediction tomorrow… without Newspoll.
Greens bemoan lack of arts vision in election campaign
Within the Australian Labor Party’s cultural policy announcement earlier this week, Shadow Arts Minister Tony Burke noted the arts sector was recovering from a decade of “Liberal National neglect, contempt and cuts”.
But according to Greens Senator Sarah Hanson-Young, neglect has come from both the major parties in the lead up to the election.
Speaking to IF prior to Labor’s policy reveal on Monday, the arts spokesperson for the party said it had been a “damn shame” that the creative industries did not have greater prominence in the campaign.
“The artists and creative industries have been ignored by both the Labor and the Liberal parties this election,” she said.
“I think it’s an insult to those workers who got us through COVID. Where would we be if we didn’t have our creative talents in Australia entertaining us and keeping us sane during the various lockdowns?
https://if.com.au/greens-bemoan-lack-of-arts-vision-in-election-campaign/
William thanks for the pre-poll data link. Looks to be a substantial number for this election.
Still confident of a Labor win. My gut tells me Labor will receive a good % of second preferences from non major candidates.
Voted today so all locked in.
I’d like to see what our predictions were from 2019. I think only a few got it right. I certainly did not
Robert Lee says:
Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 6:44 pm
That football club has breached their duty of care.
Whoever authorised Morrison participating should be sacked.
If it was a school event, they would be.
__________________________
Bet they didn’t check his working with children certificate either.
Typical reckless SfM, no regard to duty of care or OHS, just like welding with no mask, playing with the rattle gun with a tie dangling, cooking pies (of the pork kind no doubt) with no gloves, hairnet or hanging around the childrens cancer ward with no mask.
C@tmomma says:
Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 6:28 pm
Dirty Collaborators:
—————————————
Dirty martini:
https://i.chzbgr.com/full/5828821504/h64D7CF20/dirty-martini-certainly-sir
Wow just saw a Clive ad telling us that the Chinese can now fly direct from Karratha to Merredin thanks to the WA govt selling off airports to them.
I thought we’d seen everything this campaign, but apparently not.
Just got a recorded message on my mobile from Kevin Rudd urging me to vote for Terri Butler in Griffith. Already done anyway
ajm says:
Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 6:56 pm
Just got a recorded message on my mobile from Kevin Rudd urging me to vote for Terri Butler in Griffith. Already done anyway
__________________________
Sounds like she’s a definite contender for the “Sophie”
Fess we have been suffering that ad for a couple of weeks.
ajm @ #461 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 6:56 pm
I have an excellent spam filter on my phone to catch that stuff. 🙂
davidwh says:
Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 6:57 pm
Fess we have been suffering that ad for a couple of weeks.
中华人民共和国
What do you reckon will happen on Saturday old mate?
Ipsos 52-48
Newspoll 51-49
Exit poll 51-49
Final result 2pp ALP 48.9 Coalition 51.1
This is employment survey data, not opinion polls, from Roy Morgan, but no less important. Remember the ABS employment data is based on a sample survey, not the whole workforce.
If you work a single hour in the period you are employed. So the “real” rate of employment plus under-employment is 18.1% by Morgan and 10.3% by ABS.
No wonder wages are still not going up fast enough.
davidwh:
It’s the first time I’ve seen it!
Lars Von Trier says:
Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 6:57 pm
ajm says:
Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 6:56 pm
Just got a recorded message on my mobile from Kevin Rudd urging me to vote for Terri Butler in Griffith. Already done anyway
__________________________
Sounds like she’s a definite contender for the “Sophie”
_________
It would be a shame. I can think of plenty of others I would prefer it to be.
Dr Xsays:
Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 6:49 pm
I’d like to see what our predictions were from 2019. I think only a few got it right. I certainly did not.
_____________________
Wayne and Briefly got it right.
it would be interesting to know if the recent drops in the PV for labor in NSW and Vic are a reflection of Labor voters in traditionally safe Liberal seats realising their labor candidate has no chance and are instead shifting their primary vote to teal independents hoping that, if they cant have a labor candidate, at least they might get a teal instead of the harder right coalition candidate.
I live in Karen Andrews seat of mcpherson on the goldy… its never been held by any other party but liberal/lnp..
if there was a teal independent running for the HoR I would be voting 1 for them over Carl ungerer who is labor’s candidate who I would obviously give my first preference to.. because labor has no chance and obviously because it would put the wind up Karen A seeing votes go to whats seen as a more moderate “liberal” candidate whilst she continues to be stuck in an ever increasingly hard right wing party..
I’d obviously continue putting labor first in the senate.
and if i was polled by any of the pollsters I’d be naming the teal as my first preference..
could this be costing labor a few % on their PV with the pollsters?
I wonder if any pollsters have actually bothered to ask the question of the people they poll whether this “strategically vote teal first” is a viable option when they are taking to a traditional labor voter who is in a traditionally strong Liberal seat..
@Freya
So you are saying polling will be as wrong as 2019? Very skeptical.
I checked my voicemails and found a recorded message from local member Trent Zimmerman inviting me to join an online town hall style meeting. “Sadly”, the meeting had long since finished by the time I checked it.
Don’t normally get this sort of thing in North Sydney.
Upnorth still confident of a Labor win.
Player One @ #407 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 6:15 pm
Bullshit
“Upnorth still confident of a Labor win.”
How will Labor go in that great big retirement village that is Bribie Island?
Rex Douglas says:
Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 6:58 pm
ajm @ #461 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 6:56 pm
Just got a recorded message on my mobile from Kevin Rudd urging me to vote for Terri Butler in Griffith. Already done anyway
I have an excellent spam filter on my phone to catch that stuff.
中华人民共和国
When I was a kid out fishing, Ice was reserved for Beer, Crabs and Fish – no electric freezers back then. So instead of bacon and eggs for breakfast it was always SPAM and Eggs. Toast over the fire (no butter) and Tea made in the Billy. We would fight for the job to “swing” the Billy to get the leaves to settle. Lots of condensed Milk and we were off for a day crabbing and fishing.
Afternoon for we kids was spent gathering Cow Dung (careful they are set – don’t get a fresh one) to burn to keep the Mosquitoes and Sandflies away. Lunch and Tea were always what we caught that day. A swim in the ocean was bath time. I miss the smell of Tea Tree logs burning for our fires and Treacle Dumplings made by Grandad at night – the smell of smouldering cow dung not so much.
Interesting that so far Labor has been spending extra on targeting seats they currently hold, Griffith, ACT Senate.
Two friends in Sturt getting John Howard robocalls and LNP doorknocks.
“The first time in 30 years I’ve had the Libs knock on my door” says one mate.
Sorry about doing this again but can’t help myself. Hey Jude!!! Freya is very much full of it. A cruel person exhibiting all of the worst traits of the born to rule conservative caste. He/ She is a provocateur trying to toy with the ALP oiks. I don’t know for sure if Labor will win on Saturday and if they don’t that’s life in a democracy, but one things for sure, neither does the nasty Freya.
@Itep … seems if you are spending money, if you’ve got vulnerable seats you need to hold.
Tom @ 6:27
Yeah, key length is part of it. What are we up to these days? But part of secrecy is not letting on there is a secret. So you’d maybe re-format the drive unencrypted and copy some random stuff to it (an OS) to make it appear innocuous. Probably not worth exploring on this blog. (Just fantasizing.)
Dr X @ #454 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 6:19 pm
I got it wrong. I believed that Labor would get over the line but, by the end, I was including “… in spite of Labor’s woeful campaign” to that.
But that wasn’t this place’s problem in 2019. It’s OK to be wrong. Nobody’s a wizard and it would be forgivable to look at those final poll numbers and guess a Labor victory – we can’t win them all. The real problem was the sheer hubris and arrogance of many here who were certain of Labor’s pending victory, as well as the gatekeeping and bullying against anybody who dared suggest that result was anything but a certainty. That was this place’s real problem in 2019 and the fact that some here still persist on that kind of behaviour as soon as they get the slightest whiff of good polling shows they’ve learned sweet FA from last time.
hla @ #448 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 6:42 pm
Dban and the like only makes it slower. One of my associates used to teach Police (Criminal Forensics) on how to use techniques to read the magnetic traces on disassembled hard drives about 15 to 20 years ago. Use a drill through a hard drive a few times and then use a big hammer and dispose of it very well.
Davidwh says:
Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 7:05 pm
Upnorth still confident of a Labor win.
中华人民共和国
Thanks cobber. Hope you are Mildew Free! During Big Wets Upnorth the Mildew would literally grow on a pair of leather shoes after a few days! Keep Safe.
WeWantPaul says:
Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 7:10 pm
“Upnorth still confident of a Labor win.”
How will Labor go in that great big retirement village that is Bribie Island?
中华人民共和国
Will depend on ON and UAP Preferences. They are going to spray around like a “crazy persons’ shit” but I am quietly confident digger.
Comments? Morrison desperately searching for votes in Braddon tonight…
WWP Rebecca Fanning will be our new MP come Sunday.
Prince planet at 7.14
The Coalition could win – with a record breaking turnaround (in terms of magnitude and available time) between current polling and eventual outcome. That’s all Freya needs.
“Interesting that so far Labor has been spending extra on targeting seats they currently hold, Griffith, ACT Senate.”
Re the ACT senate I heard a rumour today that the ALP campaign was in the petty cash league at approx $30 k spend, which must be wrong but a massive factor, but the same source claimed Pocock was in the $1MM range. Again must be wrong, but would certainly explain a bit of a late spend.
Wat Tyler says:
The real problem was the sheer hubris and arrogance of many here who were certain of Labor’s pending victory, as well as the gatekeeping and bullying against anybody who dared suggest that result was anything but a certainty. That was this place’s real problem in 2019
_______
I was very much the focus of a lot of this back in 2019. I was suddenly catapulted into the most hated and abused figure in PB history.
ltep says:
Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 7:13 pm
Interesting that so far Labor has been spending extra on targeting seats they currently hold, Griffith, ACT Senate.
中华人共和国
Interesting that the Tories are spending extra on their safest seats. Kooyong!!
UpNorth: Good evening mate!
3 sleeps to go, my friends, keep the faith!
JenAuthor @ #433 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 6:33 pm
It just shows how desperate he is for attention, really.
The most hated and abused figure in PB history was Tony Abbott…
1000 people are died in last 24 days from covid. But no one cares.
nath @ #486 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 7:18 pm
What gives with the pity party?
“WWP Rebecca Fanning will be our new MP come Sunday.”
You could do worse!
Looking forward to the Redcliffe Dolphins in the NRL, they were my team as a kid! I honestly thought they’d disappeared!
SA Bludger @ #476 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 6:44 pm
Are they doing the whole street or just selected houses? Targeted doorknocking based on facebook data etc?
“1000 people are dying in last 24 days from covid. But no one cares.”
I’ve cared here and in real life – not much traction im either, broadly speaking people are willing even keen to sacrifice that and more to the gods of business as usual.
Davidwh,
I had some goss early on in the campaign from NSW Libs that Longman was polling very badly for Libs. This was before the NSW branch started leaking. Upnorth said it would be a battle given Bribie island vote. Any intel that suggests Fanning will win at your end ?
Sprocket at 7.17
Morrison channeling his inner Harald Schumacher?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tGq7VcaHoqo
BTW, the decision in both incidents was ‘play on’!
C@t; just imagine what a lowlife that guy would be if that was staged. I honestly can’t imagine even him knocking over a kid to steal the limelight…. but then…
“I got it wrong. I believed that Labor would get over the line but, by the end, I was including “… in spite of Labor’s woeful campaign” to that.”
***
I think almost everyone here did, myself included. Fairly sure the only person who picked a Coalition win last time was Wayne lol