The final Essential Research poll for the campaign has Labor leading by 48% to 46% on the pollster’s “2PP+” measure, in from 49% to 45% a fortnight ago, with the remainder undecided. However, both the Coalition and Labor are steady on the primary vote at 36% and 35%, the change mostly being accounted for by respondent-allocated preferences. For the minor parties, the Greens are down one to 9%, One Nation is up one to 4%, the United Australia Party is down one to 3% and independents are up one to 6%. Leadership ratings are little changed: Scott Morrison is down one on approval to 43% and up one on disapproval to 49%, Anthony Albanese is up one to 42% and steady on 41%, and Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister moves from 40-36 to 40-37.
My reading of the state breakdowns is that the results are likely too strong for the Coalition in Victoria and too weak in New South Wales, at least in relative terms — using previous election flows, Labor leads by about 53-47 in New South Wales and 51-49 in Victoria, respectively compared with 51-49 to the Coalition and around 53.5-46.5 a fortnight ago. The Coalition is credited with a lead of about 52-48 in Queensland, a swing to Labor of over 6%, compared with about 50-50 in the previous poll. Sample sizes here would have been about 500 in New South Wales, 400 in Victoria and 300 in Queensland.
The poll was conducted Wednesday to Tuesday from a sample of 1599. It has made little difference to the BludgerTrack aggregate, since it goes off primary votes which are little changed. The more heavily weighted Newspoll and Ipsos polls that are yet to come stand more chance of moving its needle, which they will want to do in the Coalition’s favour if it is to end up with a two-party preferred reading that I personally would think plausible.
Other polling news:
• The West Australian today had a poll by Utting Research showing independent Kate Chaney leading Liberal member Celia Hammond in Curtin by 52-48 on two-candidate preferred, from primary votes of 38% for Hammond, 32% for Chaney, 13% for Labor, 9% for the Greens and 3% for the United Australia Party. The poll was conducted on Monday from a sample of 514.
• Katherine Murphy of The Guardian reports Labor is “increasingly bullish” about Brisbane and Higgins, and further perceives “opportunity” in Bennelong and Ryan. The report says Labor internal polling has Scott Morrison’s disapproval rating across the four seats at 62%, 65%, 57% and 58% respectively, whereas Anthony Albanese is in the mid-forties in approval and mid-thirties on disapproval.
• Samantha Maiden of news.com.au reports on uComms polls for GetUp! of five seats chosen because of the effects on them of fires and floods. These have Labor member Fiona Phillips leading Liberal challenger Andrew Constance by 57-43 in Gilmore, but Liberal candidate Jerry Nockles leading Labor member Kirsty McBain by 51-49 in Eden-Monaro. Labor’s Peter Cossar is credited with a 55-45 lead over Liberal National Party member Julian Simmonds in Ryan, although his primary vote of 27% is not far clear of the Greens on 22%. Labor member Susan Templeman leads Liberal candidate Sarah Richards by 56-44 in Macquarie, and Nationals member Kevin Hogan leads Labor’s Patrick Deegan by 51-49 in Page, which he won by 9.4% in 2019. I have tended to think this pollster’s results have been flattering to Labor due to a limited weighting frame encompassing only age and gender, a notion disabused here only by the Eden-Monaro result.
• Speaking of which, The Australia Institute has a now dated uComms poll of Higgins from May 2 that had hitherto escaped my notice, showing Liberal member Katie Allen will lose either to Labor by 54-46 or the Greens by 55-45. Using the results of the forced-response follow-up to allocate the initially undecided, the primary votes are Liberal 36.9%, Labor 29.8% and Greens 19.9%, in which case it would clearly be Labor that won the seat.
• Redbridge Group has published full results of its poll for Climate 200 in North Sydney which, as noted here yesterday, had Liberal member Trent Zimmerman on 33.3%, independent Kylea Tink on 23.5% and Labor candidate Catherine Renshaw on 17.8%, with 7.5% undecided. The full report has results on a follow-up prompt for the undecided, and much more besides.
Senate news:
• The Australia Institute has Senate voting intention results for the five mainland states, which suggest the Greens are looking good across the board, One Nation might be a show in New South Wales as well as Queensland, the United Australia Party are competitive in Victoria, a third seat for Labor is in play in Western Australia, and Nick Xenophon might be in a tussle with One Nation for the last place in South Australia. With a national sample of 1002 though, there are naturally wide margins of error on these results. The accompanying report also include interesting data on respondents’ levels of understanding of the Senate voting process.
• The Advertiser reports an “internal party polling” – it does not say whose – of the South Australian Senate race has Labor on 34%, Liberal on 23%, the Greens on 12%, Nick Xenophon on 6%, One Nation on 4% and Rex Patrick on 3%. I imagine the most likely outcome of such a result would be two seats each for Labor and Liberal plus one for the Greens and one for Nick Xenophon. The poll had a sample of 644, with field work dates not disclosed.
• A joint sitting of the Western Australian parliament has just confirmed that Ben Small of the Liberal Party will fill his own Senate vacancy, having addressed the dual citizenship issue that forced his resignation. Small has the third position on the Liberal ticket at Saturday’s election.
Non-polling news:
• Sky News has obtained a voicemail message from 2019 in which Dai Le, who is threatening Kristina Keneally’s effort to use Fowler to move from the Senate to the House of Representatives, stated she still had control of the Liberal Party’s Cabramatta branch despite having been suspended from the party after running as an independent mayoral candidate in 2016. Le has been keen to express her independent credentials in a seat where the Liberal Party has little support.
• Samantha Maiden of news.com.au reports Labor focus groups in Bennelong, Deakin and Pearce registered negative reactions to the Liberal Party’s policy of allowing home buyers to make use of their superannuation.
• The count for the Tasmanian Legislative Council seat of Huon has been completed, with the distribution of preferences resulting in a victory for independent candidate Dean Harriss over Labor’s Toby Thorpe at the final count by 11,840 votes (52.55%) to 10,693 (47.45%). Thorpe led on the primary vote, but Liberal preferences flowed to Harriss more strongly than Greens preferences did to Thorpe. This maintains the numbers in the chamber at four Labor, four Liberal and seven independents, although an ex-Labor member has been replaced by one with a conservative pedigree, his father having served in parliament both as an independent and with the Liberal Party.
Personally i want Labor in Government but must admit the economic challenges are huge and if Morrison wins he would have to deal with an economy which is likely to collapse big time and he deserves to get the blame for it. Labor would be tagged with they cannot run the economy again and Murdoch media would have a field day and i could see a landslide to Libs next time whilst for Labor it could be a kind of landslide for them. And Dutton could be their leader as well.
WWP the Dolphins have been very competitive in the State League. Just not as good as W/M. 🙂
ltep @ #474 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 7:13 pm
Labor are under attack from The Greens, natch, in Griffith. And Pocock in the ACT.
Centaur: Albanese’s speech today he said he wanted to form a coordinated response to the ‘ongoing’ pandemic. Morrison just basically said “we’re living with covid”
Life will go whatever the outcome on Saturday. I can live with whatever outcome it is (Lab/Lib/Hung parliament). I think Albo will win – but we are up for an unstable and tough period in the next 3 years regardless of the outcome until a new political settlement happens in Australia.
I’m hoping Albo can rise above his party hack circumstances and background in office and prove the low expectations wrong.
Watched PVO on Ch10 News earlier – lauding Albo’s performance at the Press Club, and dumping shit on ScoMo – including the forced handshakes and Hawaii photos flashing up.
So not all the CPG are Morrison groupies..
Dr X @ #454 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 6:49 pm
Itsthevibe was closest.
2019 May-18 13:24
ALP 66
LNP 80
KAP 1
GRN 1
ind 3
Low 80s for ALP and mid 60s for LNP were popular.
ltep says:
Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 7:13 pm
Interesting that so far Labor has been spending extra on targeting seats they currently hold, Griffith, ACT Senate.
_____________
Don’t forget Fowler lot’s of spend and apparently its a pictures only event tonight with Albo and KK , no questions!
“WWP the Dolphins have been very competitive in the State League. Just not as good as W/M. ”
Was W/M Wally Lewis’ team? I remember not loving them or Valley’s (if I remember that team right) but we all loved the Emperor come State of Origin! I still can’t understand the failure of the AFL to make that concept come even close to working.
ScoMo is in Braddon tonight – you don’t go to Lonnie if you think you’re winning
I was doubly wrong re 2019.
I said for three yrs that Shorten was unelectable, but conceded on election night that he would win. I was wrong about being wrong.
“So not all the CPG are Morrison groupies.”
PvO makes regular (and IMHO failed) attempts to appear on team impartial.
sprocket_,
PVO can see the winds of change and is just positioning.
Is Albo on 7:30 tonight?
Evan says:
Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 7:19 pm
UpNorth: Good evening mate!
3 sleeps to go, my friends, keep the faith!
中华人民共和国
The Light on the Hill Cobber – burns bright after 131 years!
….Devonport…
Lonnie is in Bass.
Morrison is a marketing man and he knows how to create a story for his benefit, and in this campaign he has been spinning alot of stuff. The child in Hobart today was this another one of his ploys to deflect the headlines…
If: 25% of votes already cast at 54-53/47-46 in ALP favour
Next few days further 10% at 52/48 in ALP favour
the rest of the votes on 18 May need to need to be, what? 53/47 to LNP to get them over line?
I am sure someone can do the projection but does that seem likely if ALP are still in front as of now?
AEForecasts has ALP still winning at 80% chance. I like them odds.
sprocket_ says:
Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 7:28 pm
ScoMo is in Braddon tonight – you don’t go to Lonnie if you think you’re winning
_________________________
If you recall ScoMo went to Bass on the morning of the election in 2019 – whilst Littlefinger checked the last minute packing for the move to the Lodge.
nath @ #487 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 6:48 pm
You dislike a Labor politician, so that makes you obsessive and mentally ill.
Unlike normal people who spend the Christmas break staring at a photo of Scott Morrison cooking some food, doing in-depth analyses of why it’s so fake. Remember how damning the colour of his thongs was…
How do I join the PB Piss Tank Club?
@mark …. come on. This stuff about Scotty the Marketing genius is bad enough, but to strategically angle yourself to crash tackle an 8 year old?
PVO has certainly come a long way towards the left. I would have picked him as a moderate liberal a year ago but he is certainly not a Morrison supporter. Reminds me of the John Gorton comment when asked about the victory of (I think) the Hawke government, answered with words to the effect that the Hawke Government would be the best Liberal government since some past government (I can’t recall). So I wonder if PVO is supporting the best ‘liberal government since’ based on ALP shift to the centre and the Lib move to the far far right?
https://twitter.com/vanOnselenP?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
No Lynchpin – Albo attending an event organised a long time ago with the Italian community in Fowler – not an election event, thus no questions from media.
“How do I join the PB Piss Tank Club?”
We have a broadish church but are then PB people who aren’t devoted Piss Tank Club members.?
What the fuck is going on here?
Morrison visited the Strikers club in the Liberal-held marginal seat of Braddon to spruik a $3.5m grant for the club’s Valley Road grounds including a new grandstand.
Invited to join in a training match with the under-8s, Morrison ambled around the field amiably while his side scored a goal with little assistance from the prime minister.
Morrison then got more active by executing a successful tackle on the wing.
But as the prime minister got more involved still, he stumbled and knocked one of the players, Luca Fauvette, to the ground.
Morrison did not fall directly on Luca who got up – apparently unharmed.
Luca’s coach, Keegan Smith, later told Guardian Australia his young player “jumped up with a big smile and kept playing”.
Morrison quipped in the clubhouse: “Where’s Luca? Please tell me he hasn’t gone off to the hospital.”
The prime minister also made light of the incident with reference to his recent attempts at self-reinvention when he promised to be more empathic and recognised he could be a “bit of a bulldozer”.
“I look forward to coming back on another occasion. I think that when that grandstand comes down, I hear it might need a bit of a bulldozer to knock it down, so I might be able to help with that,” he told the assembled parents and players.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/may/18/please-tell-me-he-hasnt-gone-to-hospital-morrison-the-bulldozer-knocks-over-child-while-playing-soccer
WeWantPaul says:
Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 7:27 pm
“WWP the Dolphins have been very competitive in the State League. Just not as good as W/M. ”
Was W/M Wally Lewis’ team? I remember not loving them or Valley’s (if I remember that team right) but we all loved the Emperor come State of Origin! I still can’t understand the failure of the AFL to make that concept come even close to working.
中华人民共和国
They can’t tackle properly and no real biff. Aerial Ping Pong same as Ra Ra! Go Valleys!!!
“PVO has certainly come a long way towards the left.”
From his Nazis were socialists frenzy taken straight from right wing crazy land he had to move a long way back to get to Australian far right crazy.
sprocket_ says:
Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 7:32 pm
What the fuck is going on here?
中华人民共和国
Tell me and we will both know. He is a Dickhead!
This photo is in The Advocate which circulates in Devonport, Burnie and throughout Braddon. Might lose some votes for the Liberal candidate, especially from mothers of young children.
https://www.theadvocate.com.au/story/7744221/late-challenge-pm-slides-into-valley-road/?cs=87
I also think PvO is disgusted by the rorting/preferential leaking to media pets/lack of transparency.
“They can’t tackle properly …”
As a WCE fan even when they were a competitive team (distance memory) they couldn’t tackle at all let alone properly.
I agree sprocket – ScoMo’s tackle on the kid could definitely merit a referral to the new FICAC.
Was the tackle real or faked?
Was the tackle funded?
Was the club mixed up in the tackle?
Who knew about the tackle and when did they know about it?
How was the tackle decided upon?
Are just some of the questions which need answers.
Imagine the nicknames that poor kid is going to be called at school tomorrow
C@tmomma @ #223 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 7:24 pm
As a party member in Griffith, my sense is we’re not really worried. But a little extra insurance never goes astray.
PvO is this generations Glen Milne.
Lars Von Trier @ #505 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 6:56 pm
I hope it comes back.
Guess time will tell
“The Coalition have sprung to the defence of their controversial ‘hole in the bucket’ campaign ad.
“The bucket ad rings true because it explains the cost of Mr Albanese being a loose unit on the economy,” he said.
And he explained the thinking behind it. “Effective advertising is not a pursuit of popularity, it’s to stick in people’s minds,” he said.
“No one likes the Coles ad, but we all know what it says.”
This comes after marketing experts claimed Labor had won the election battle of the ads with marketing experts dismissing Liberal ads as “annoying” and “completely missing the mark”.
“Labor has been monstering the Liberals,” marketer and ABC TV Gruen panellist Toby Ralph said.
Loading embed…
“Their campaign has been far better.”
The Labor ads with an expensive iceberg lettuce and clips of Prime Minister Scott Morrison saying ‘it’s not my job’ were put together by long-term Labor campaign creator Dee Madigan.
“They work because they deal with relatable items and play into existing voter perceptions,” Mr Ralph said.
But he said the Liberal ‘Dear Labor … hole in the bucket’ television ad (a play on the popular nursery rhyme) “drives me insane. It is awful. It is not working because Labor has not released its costings so it is just not credible.”
https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/national/federal-election/federal-election-2022-awful-grating-annoying-voters-tip-a-bucket-on-poll-ads/news-story/155c7f5fef9e4d43b8ad00e9d9abeff1?amp
PvO has always had his moments although I can’t shake the thought that he’s being harder on Morrison than perhaps expected as payback for not having Porter’s back (he obviously had Porter’s back a little in public but also obviously told him to head for the exit door rather than just doing a turn in the purgatory lounge like Stuart Robert or Tudge).
I can’t trust a guy who befriended Porter in his openly misogynistic university phase. It speaks poorly for his character. And his reaction to Grace Tame suggests that the university guy is still in there.
Lars Von Trier says:
Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 7:36 pm
I agree sprocket – ScoMo’s tackle on the kid could definitely merit a referral to the new FICAC.
__________
He has been telling us how tough and strong he is, and nothing demonstrates that better than knocking over 9 year olds.
I do agree I don’t envy whoever wins. The economic situation is highly uncertain, and with RBA raising rates, inflation very high, China’s lockdown etc, the domestic economy may well slow down by the end of the year. High commodity prices is a saving grace for the Australian economy, but what if it goes off the cliff?
The leaders in the Canberra press gallery are in it for themselves. I wouldn’t trust any of them.
@Jude – as they say, the worst day in government is better than the best day in opposition.
…even if it’s not always true.
@SA – I wouldn’t refer to PVO as a leader, the actual leaders don’t have much time for him – I heard one with a not so generous description of him not long ago…
Fire-Fox at 7.23
Wayne, a person?
ajm says:
Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 7:36 pm
C@tmomma @ #223 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 7:24 pm
ltep @ #474 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 7:13 pm
Interesting that so far Labor has been spending extra on targeting seats they currently hold, Griffith, ACT Senate.
Labor are under attack from The Greens, natch, in Griffith. And Pocock in the ACT.
As a party member in Griffith, my sense is we’re not really worried. But a little extra insurance never goes astray.
中华人民共和国
Terris’ a “good stick” and I’ve known her Donkeys Years. I reckon she will be right but go and get every vote digger. Well done.
Wat Tyler @ #520 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 7:30 pm
No one makes you read it. If it’s not to your taste you have choices. As we all do. But to whine about it now? That shows a serious fixation with a trivial matter.
Here was me thinking that the Bulldozer had become a Feather Duster but no he bulldozed his way through a child in Tassie, so he has not changed
“Bet they didn’t check his working with children certificate either.”
He wouldn’t need one. Yes, I know you’re being facetious.
@Prince planet says:
Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 7:14 pm
“Sorry about doing this again but can’t help myself. Hey Jude!!! Freya is very much full of it. A cruel person exhibiting all of the worst traits of the born to rule conservative caste. He/ She is a provocateur trying to toy with the ALP oiks. I don’t know for sure if Labor will win on Saturday and if they don’t that’s life in a democracy, but one things for sure, neither does the nasty Freya.”
i’m not sure that Freya is a nasty person.. full of it maybe.. but not nasty..
Freya’s probably more the sad and lonely timid type that doesn’t have many friends in life and they have discovered this site and have decided/realised that they can get the attention they desperately crave by doing a bit of trolling on here…
Poor Freya probably deserves more pity than scorn…
Practical guide to voting (First Dog). Makes sense.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/may/18/how-to-preference-your-ballot-so-you-vote-scott-out?utm_term=628493c668e9a3b33efbfdcaecfdf02a&utm_campaign=FirstDogOnTheMoon&utm_source=esp&utm_medium=Email&CMP=firstdog_email