The final Essential Research poll for the campaign has Labor leading by 48% to 46% on the pollster’s “2PP+” measure, in from 49% to 45% a fortnight ago, with the remainder undecided. However, both the Coalition and Labor are steady on the primary vote at 36% and 35%, the change mostly being accounted for by respondent-allocated preferences. For the minor parties, the Greens are down one to 9%, One Nation is up one to 4%, the United Australia Party is down one to 3% and independents are up one to 6%. Leadership ratings are little changed: Scott Morrison is down one on approval to 43% and up one on disapproval to 49%, Anthony Albanese is up one to 42% and steady on 41%, and Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister moves from 40-36 to 40-37.
My reading of the state breakdowns is that the results are likely too strong for the Coalition in Victoria and too weak in New South Wales, at least in relative terms — using previous election flows, Labor leads by about 53-47 in New South Wales and 51-49 in Victoria, respectively compared with 51-49 to the Coalition and around 53.5-46.5 a fortnight ago. The Coalition is credited with a lead of about 52-48 in Queensland, a swing to Labor of over 6%, compared with about 50-50 in the previous poll. Sample sizes here would have been about 500 in New South Wales, 400 in Victoria and 300 in Queensland.
The poll was conducted Wednesday to Tuesday from a sample of 1599. It has made little difference to the BludgerTrack aggregate, since it goes off primary votes which are little changed. The more heavily weighted Newspoll and Ipsos polls that are yet to come stand more chance of moving its needle, which they will want to do in the Coalition’s favour if it is to end up with a two-party preferred reading that I personally would think plausible.
Other polling news:
• The West Australian today had a poll by Utting Research showing independent Kate Chaney leading Liberal member Celia Hammond in Curtin by 52-48 on two-candidate preferred, from primary votes of 38% for Hammond, 32% for Chaney, 13% for Labor, 9% for the Greens and 3% for the United Australia Party. The poll was conducted on Monday from a sample of 514.
• Katherine Murphy of The Guardian reports Labor is “increasingly bullish” about Brisbane and Higgins, and further perceives “opportunity” in Bennelong and Ryan. The report says Labor internal polling has Scott Morrison’s disapproval rating across the four seats at 62%, 65%, 57% and 58% respectively, whereas Anthony Albanese is in the mid-forties in approval and mid-thirties on disapproval.
• Samantha Maiden of news.com.au reports on uComms polls for GetUp! of five seats chosen because of the effects on them of fires and floods. These have Labor member Fiona Phillips leading Liberal challenger Andrew Constance by 57-43 in Gilmore, but Liberal candidate Jerry Nockles leading Labor member Kirsty McBain by 51-49 in Eden-Monaro. Labor’s Peter Cossar is credited with a 55-45 lead over Liberal National Party member Julian Simmonds in Ryan, although his primary vote of 27% is not far clear of the Greens on 22%. Labor member Susan Templeman leads Liberal candidate Sarah Richards by 56-44 in Macquarie, and Nationals member Kevin Hogan leads Labor’s Patrick Deegan by 51-49 in Page, which he won by 9.4% in 2019. I have tended to think this pollster’s results have been flattering to Labor due to a limited weighting frame encompassing only age and gender, a notion disabused here only by the Eden-Monaro result.
• Speaking of which, The Australia Institute has a now dated uComms poll of Higgins from May 2 that had hitherto escaped my notice, showing Liberal member Katie Allen will lose either to Labor by 54-46 or the Greens by 55-45. Using the results of the forced-response follow-up to allocate the initially undecided, the primary votes are Liberal 36.9%, Labor 29.8% and Greens 19.9%, in which case it would clearly be Labor that won the seat.
• Redbridge Group has published full results of its poll for Climate 200 in North Sydney which, as noted here yesterday, had Liberal member Trent Zimmerman on 33.3%, independent Kylea Tink on 23.5% and Labor candidate Catherine Renshaw on 17.8%, with 7.5% undecided. The full report has results on a follow-up prompt for the undecided, and much more besides.
Senate news:
• The Australia Institute has Senate voting intention results for the five mainland states, which suggest the Greens are looking good across the board, One Nation might be a show in New South Wales as well as Queensland, the United Australia Party are competitive in Victoria, a third seat for Labor is in play in Western Australia, and Nick Xenophon might be in a tussle with One Nation for the last place in South Australia. With a national sample of 1002 though, there are naturally wide margins of error on these results. The accompanying report also include interesting data on respondents’ levels of understanding of the Senate voting process.
• The Advertiser reports an “internal party polling” – it does not say whose – of the South Australian Senate race has Labor on 34%, Liberal on 23%, the Greens on 12%, Nick Xenophon on 6%, One Nation on 4% and Rex Patrick on 3%. I imagine the most likely outcome of such a result would be two seats each for Labor and Liberal plus one for the Greens and one for Nick Xenophon. The poll had a sample of 644, with field work dates not disclosed.
• A joint sitting of the Western Australian parliament has just confirmed that Ben Small of the Liberal Party will fill his own Senate vacancy, having addressed the dual citizenship issue that forced his resignation. Small has the third position on the Liberal ticket at Saturday’s election.
Non-polling news:
• Sky News has obtained a voicemail message from 2019 in which Dai Le, who is threatening Kristina Keneally’s effort to use Fowler to move from the Senate to the House of Representatives, stated she still had control of the Liberal Party’s Cabramatta branch despite having been suspended from the party after running as an independent mayoral candidate in 2016. Le has been keen to express her independent credentials in a seat where the Liberal Party has little support.
• Samantha Maiden of news.com.au reports Labor focus groups in Bennelong, Deakin and Pearce registered negative reactions to the Liberal Party’s policy of allowing home buyers to make use of their superannuation.
• The count for the Tasmanian Legislative Council seat of Huon has been completed, with the distribution of preferences resulting in a victory for independent candidate Dean Harriss over Labor’s Toby Thorpe at the final count by 11,840 votes (52.55%) to 10,693 (47.45%). Thorpe led on the primary vote, but Liberal preferences flowed to Harriss more strongly than Greens preferences did to Thorpe. This maintains the numbers in the chamber at four Labor, four Liberal and seven independents, although an ex-Labor member has been replaced by one with a conservative pedigree, his father having served in parliament both as an independent and with the Liberal Party.
Snappy Tom says:
Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 7:41 pm
Fire-Fox at 7.23
Wayne, a person?
中华人民共和国
And Bree 🙂
WWP Wal played juniors for Cannon Hill Stars but started his senior career at Valleys. Moved over to W/M in around 1983, coached them to a GF win. Then moved to the Broncos in 1987.
Snappy Tom @ #544 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 7:41 pm
Male form of Bree.
However Wayne was right in 2019 and most of the rest of us were wrong. Won’t happen this time. 🙂
Scomo will probably do a little more pork barrel work in Braddon in the morning in an attempt to offset JLN being popular and preferencing LABOR in Braddon and Lyons. He has already been here in Bass five times this election period and 12.2% of the electorate of Bass had already pre-polled by the end of Tuesday {10,000 votes}. He is relying heavily on hanging on to his 2019 gains to have some hope of a win this time.
“It is not working because Labor has not released its costings so it is just not credible.”
The flip side of that is that because Labor has not released its costings it IS credible, unfortunately. Maybe more now than when it started airing.
Lars
Morrrison knocking over an 8 year old with some boofhead rugby tackle just cost him any momentum he may have had.
Most people looking at this will think ‘Do I want this deadshit to continue as PM?’
I wouldn’t want this bloke looking after my share portfolio.
“A minority government forming after Saturday’s federal election is a “key market risk”, according to Morgan Stanley, but the chance of an ALP victory is fading rapidly.
Newspoll has the Labor Party ahead by 54 per cent to 46 per cent on a two-party preferred basis with about 30 per cent of the electorate having already voted, making it hard to see a Coalition victory.
But after expecting the chance of an ALP win to be 75 per cent, betting markets saw an improvement for the Coalition, with an ALP win paying $1.50 versus $2.70 for the Coalition, the margin narrowing from $1.20 and $4.20 on Monday, according to Sportsbet.
“I now believe that this election has been lost by the ALP and the Coalition will secure another unlikely historic victory from the claws of defeat,” said Bell Potter’s head of institutional sales and trading, Richard Coppleson.”
https://amp.theaustralian.com.au/business/markets/minority-government-a-key-risk-as-labor-victory-fades/news-story/c5eb5cf588d621b700642fc35c684de3
I heard that one of the kids nearby when Scomo tackled the other kid said to his mate, “does he still smell like shit?”
I reckon the 2 most hated figures on PB where John Howard and Scott Morrison. I think the Rodent was the most hated – even more so than ScoMo.
I think in terms of Labor leaders they were like failed relationships. When it was on they were loved and when it was over – it was like there had never been a relationship. The most striking was one K.Rudd – loved until the coup then he was damned within hours when the party line changed.
The last 5 years has seen a rising level of hatred towards the Greens as well. Mostly because most posters on here have a patholigical inability to accept a principled party on their Left.
“WWP Wal played juniors for Cannon Hill Stars but started his senior career at Valleys. Moved over to W/M in around 1983, coached them to a GF win. Then moved to the Broncos in 1987.”
Ta so he was W/M for.pretty much my entire time in Qld, during which time one of my brothers played for Burpengary (Bulldogs I think) as a very junior, junior.
WeWanatPaul at 7.27 re failure of AFL state of origin…
I’ve also been curious about that, especially as AFL minor jurisdictions like Tas and NT have much greater playing depth than RL outside NSW and Qld.
My best hypothesis is that having 3 ‘big’ AFL states dilutes the rivalry/downright hatred too much!
He has form in the attention seeking behaviour during election campaign stakes:
Lars Von Trier @ #562 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 7:47 pm
The Gospel according to L’Arse.
“The last 5 years has seen a rising level of hatred towards the Greens as well. Mostly because most posters on here have a patholigical inability to accept a principled party on their Left.”
To be fair they haven’t been universally excited by a principled grouping to the right (and left) either.
Was working the HTVs in North Sydney today when my uptight liberal opposite made the observation that there had been a huge rush of early voting. Reckoned that such an early rush indicated a mood for change. Is there any validity to this argument?
The mix of voters in my booth we’re mostly Kylea Tink fans and libs, I suspect. Tink folk definitely well organized and upbeat on their chances.
The grumpier voters were the more rusted on they were to the liberal party.
Good bit on the 7:30 report on Albo and the NPC highlights, bit sorry I missed it as it looks like a cracker, hopefully will bet a bit of exposure.
The Tasmanian police should investigate this….
Holy Shit! that head high tackle of that kid is something else. And scomo’s worried about Trans Women in sports. What was he trying to do, demonstrate what he was worried about 😛
Hard Drive?
Storage for PCs are all SSDs now except if you need multi terabytes
Lynchpin at 7.30
My understanding is the Whatever-The-Fuck-Our-Name-Is-Pollbludger-Pissheads-Club has neither entrance forms or requirements. It is the ultimate ‘broad church’. Imbibe, don’t imbibe, have the attitude of imbibing whilst not imbibing…it’s the Constitution…it’s Mabo…it’s the vibe…
C@tmomma says:
Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 7:48 pm
He has form in the attention seeking behaviour during election campaign stakes:
_______________
Is that Sporty SfM 2.1? He is wearing the same ‘tracksuit’ and tie
Laura Tingle is as always, tough but fair.
“I was very much the focus of a lot of this back in 2019. I was suddenly catapulted into the most hated and abused figure in PB history.”
***
Now hold my beer, nath, while I just take a few months (it felt like years, really it did lol) to tell the truth about the invasion of Iraq…
“My best hypothesis is that having 3 ‘big’ AFL states dilutes the rivalry/downright hatred too much!”
I think there is also a bit of ‘nothing is more important than playing for collingwood / hawthorn / pick Vic team of choice’ such that the lack of passion showed on the field.
If you can’t get the players to at least a finals fever level it is obvious to spectators you are watching a bad exhibition match.
Upnorth @ #527 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 5:33 pm
State of origin was an aussie rules invention. It lost relevance when the AFL came about.
It’s easier when you only have 2 states involved, would take a big chunk out of the season to run an Australian wide state of origin series for Aussie rules.
I didn’t mind John Howard. He was a competent PM on his own terms. Morrison (Abbott, Turnbull, Gillard, Rudd) were flawed units.
Basically, and much as I love PJK and even Gough, we have had two competent Australian Prime Ministers in the last 57 years, Hawke and Howard. I define competence as a coherent ideology, administrative skill and political dominance.
Just killing time until Ipsos.
@Firefox – allow me to help you down from the high horse?
Acting like you were the only one opposed to Iraq, lol. The first protest I ever went to, albeit at 20, was in opposition to that obvious shitstorm.
And where is “the ladder of opportunity” at this election??
sprocket_ says:
Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 7:50 pm
The Tasmanian police should investigate this….
_______________
I wouldn’t worry, he is a man of God after all………
Yeah, nah!
Lars at 7.36
Was the $3.5m grant conditional on the tackle?
sprocket
Give it up, it wasn’t Albo who crash tackled a kid so the media will ignore it.
“Wayne, a person?”
***
Aye, he kept coming here during the last term (16-19) and telling us that “our beloved Coalition will be returned” etc etc… It was likely a total fluke but credit where it’s due he was right. Pretty much the only one here who was.
I kinda feel Max Chandler-Mather winning Griffith is inevitable. It’ll happen either this election or next, and once he gets in he’ll just increase his primary vote each time like Bandt.
This year Wayne won’t be the only person who predicts the result correctly.
bluepill:
Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 5:34 pm
[‘Well this is a peculiar election. It is boring, at a fundamental level, in terms of its leader offerings, policies and themes, with an absolute dearth, from both sides, of nation-building (specific) plans.’]
I think the days of Whitlam are over, where he swayed so many by sheer dint of argument – charisma, substance writ large. Now it seems to be a case of self-interest. If, for example, either Morrison or Albanese offered sweeteners, self-interest will prevail. I listened to Albanese’s NPC address today, in which he performed very well; perhaps more will perceive him to be the genuine article – old Labor?
I’d add, that the Catholic-right is no longer a force save for dear GG.
sprocket_,
Gigi fosters good fun, someone should ask her if 40 people dying a day is worth it.
WeWantPaul says:
Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 7:54 pm
“My best hypothesis is that having 3 ‘big’ AFL states dilutes the rivalry/downright hatred too much!”
I think there is also a bit of ‘nothing is more important than playing for collingwood / hawthorn / pick Vic team of choice’ such that the lack of passion showed on the field.
If you can’t get the players to at least a finals fever level it is obvious to spectators you are watching a bad exhibition match.
__________________
It all went downhill when it changed from the VFL to the AFL….no wait, earlier than that, when South Melbourne ended up in Sydney, and don’t get me started on my old team Fitzroy, had to Barrack for Richmond as was never going to support a Brisbane team
Re: AFL state of origin.
It had its moments of success – in the 80s and 90s you’d have 100,000 spectators for Vic vs SA or WA.
But there are a bunch of reasons why it fizzled out.
The first is that it isn’t a 2-horse race like RL’s Queensland vs NSW. The league SOO has two states, and they’re relatively evenly matched. Simples.
The AFL had 3 states on a similar level in SA v WA v Vic, then also had to try to somehow include the other states, who can sort-of-but-not-really compete.
Tas and NT have high % participation, but they just don’t have the depth of population to put a competitive team against any of the big 3.
NSW actually could (sometimes), as you had the Riverina producing freak footballers, plus enough guys from Sydney to have a very solid side. Early 1990s they beat Vic at least once that I remember. Ditto Queensland, sometimes.
But all that aside, the core issue is that AFL clubs didn’t want to risk their stars getting injured in anything that wasn’t a regular premiership match.
“Acting like you were the only one opposed to Iraq, lol. The first protest I ever went to, albeit at 20, was in opposition to that obvious shitstorm.”
***
No, no, you misunderstand. There was a huge kerfuffle here on PB during the US Election when I revealed the fact that Joe Biden had voted in favour of the invasion of Iraq.
Good on you Trinidad,
Could you pick up any Renshaw vibes ? Mate of mine voted Tink as best opportunity of knocking off TZ but there are a few reports saying Renshaw could run second
So q re the Quad.
Assuming Albo wins – and he and Wong are sworn in on May 23 to fly to the Quad Summit on Monday 23 May.
Who is notionally minding the shop for every other portfolio in Australia until Albo’s return from Tokyo?
Surely he has to swear in Marles ? Unless Marles doesn’t figure as Deputy Dawg going forward?
Hey, where’s ShownOn, I miss the caps lock commentary MOFOS.
Seadog says:
Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 7:54 pm
Upnorth @ #527 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 5:33 pm
WeWantPaul says:
Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 7:27 pm
“WWP the Dolphins have been very competitive in the State League. Just not as good as W/M. ”
Was W/M Wally Lewis’ team? I remember not loving them or Valley’s (if I remember that team right) but we all loved the Emperor come State of Origin! I still can’t understand the failure of the AFL to make that concept come even close to working.
中华人民共和国
They can’t tackle properly and no real biff. Aerial Ping Pong same as Ra Ra! Go Valleys!!!
State of origin was an aussie rules invention. It lost relevance when the AFL came about.
It’s easier when you only have 2 states involved, would take a big chunk out of the season to run an Australian wide state of origin series for Aussie rules.
中华人民共和国
Still can’t tackle properly.
Trinidadsays:
Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 7:50 pm
Was working the HTVs in North Sydney today when my uptight liberal opposite made the observation that there had been a huge rush of early voting. Reckoned that such an early rush indicated a mood for change. Is there any validity to this argument?
—
A huge rush of early voters on election day used to be considered a portent for change but in the context of Corona virus etc I wouldn’t be trying to read a rush of pre polls a portent for change . It might just be a reflection of a shift towards increasing numbers choosing to pre-poll and an ageing population causing the old farts to want to avoid long queues on polling day. Who knows. Id guess around 70% of the pre-pollers I saw in Bass this week were over 50s.
I know it’s just for fun, but for the record, this is what I have recorded for seat guesses.
ALP 65 / 80 LNP – Wayne
ALP 66 / 80 LNP – Itsavibe
ALP 68 / 77 LNP – Actual
@Mavis – one of the real genuine tragedies of politics over the last 40 years… we’re happy to borrow, we’re happy to give up revenue for tax cuts to people who don’t need them, MORE roads instead of rail, dam infrastructure where it’s not needed – at a scale not needed.
Actual nation-building (and improvement) is a bridge too far, often nuked by a single question – albeit only ever asked to Labor (as the alternative party of government) “how are you going to pay for it”. People like services, they want action on climate change, they want good and effective infrastructure… but they don’t want to pay for it.
I mentioned earlier that an astute injury compensation lawyer will probably be contacting the boy’s parents. I hope he has already been checked by a doctor in case he sustained a head or other injury. It’s no fun being knocked to the ground by someone who is 3 or 4 times your own weight.
Simon Holmes a Court…
today i instructed my lawyers to initiate defamation actions against the @dailytelegraph & @DailyMailAU in respect of their outrageous slurs against me.
ftr, i did not compare #JohnHoward to a nazi. the suggestion that that was my intention is disgusting and beneath contempt.