The final Essential Research poll for the campaign has Labor leading by 48% to 46% on the pollster’s “2PP+” measure, in from 49% to 45% a fortnight ago, with the remainder undecided. However, both the Coalition and Labor are steady on the primary vote at 36% and 35%, the change mostly being accounted for by respondent-allocated preferences. For the minor parties, the Greens are down one to 9%, One Nation is up one to 4%, the United Australia Party is down one to 3% and independents are up one to 6%. Leadership ratings are little changed: Scott Morrison is down one on approval to 43% and up one on disapproval to 49%, Anthony Albanese is up one to 42% and steady on 41%, and Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister moves from 40-36 to 40-37.
My reading of the state breakdowns is that the results are likely too strong for the Coalition in Victoria and too weak in New South Wales, at least in relative terms — using previous election flows, Labor leads by about 53-47 in New South Wales and 51-49 in Victoria, respectively compared with 51-49 to the Coalition and around 53.5-46.5 a fortnight ago. The Coalition is credited with a lead of about 52-48 in Queensland, a swing to Labor of over 6%, compared with about 50-50 in the previous poll. Sample sizes here would have been about 500 in New South Wales, 400 in Victoria and 300 in Queensland.
The poll was conducted Wednesday to Tuesday from a sample of 1599. It has made little difference to the BludgerTrack aggregate, since it goes off primary votes which are little changed. The more heavily weighted Newspoll and Ipsos polls that are yet to come stand more chance of moving its needle, which they will want to do in the Coalition’s favour if it is to end up with a two-party preferred reading that I personally would think plausible.
Other polling news:
• The West Australian today had a poll by Utting Research showing independent Kate Chaney leading Liberal member Celia Hammond in Curtin by 52-48 on two-candidate preferred, from primary votes of 38% for Hammond, 32% for Chaney, 13% for Labor, 9% for the Greens and 3% for the United Australia Party. The poll was conducted on Monday from a sample of 514.
• Katherine Murphy of The Guardian reports Labor is “increasingly bullish” about Brisbane and Higgins, and further perceives “opportunity” in Bennelong and Ryan. The report says Labor internal polling has Scott Morrison’s disapproval rating across the four seats at 62%, 65%, 57% and 58% respectively, whereas Anthony Albanese is in the mid-forties in approval and mid-thirties on disapproval.
• Samantha Maiden of news.com.au reports on uComms polls for GetUp! of five seats chosen because of the effects on them of fires and floods. These have Labor member Fiona Phillips leading Liberal challenger Andrew Constance by 57-43 in Gilmore, but Liberal candidate Jerry Nockles leading Labor member Kirsty McBain by 51-49 in Eden-Monaro. Labor’s Peter Cossar is credited with a 55-45 lead over Liberal National Party member Julian Simmonds in Ryan, although his primary vote of 27% is not far clear of the Greens on 22%. Labor member Susan Templeman leads Liberal candidate Sarah Richards by 56-44 in Macquarie, and Nationals member Kevin Hogan leads Labor’s Patrick Deegan by 51-49 in Page, which he won by 9.4% in 2019. I have tended to think this pollster’s results have been flattering to Labor due to a limited weighting frame encompassing only age and gender, a notion disabused here only by the Eden-Monaro result.
• Speaking of which, The Australia Institute has a now dated uComms poll of Higgins from May 2 that had hitherto escaped my notice, showing Liberal member Katie Allen will lose either to Labor by 54-46 or the Greens by 55-45. Using the results of the forced-response follow-up to allocate the initially undecided, the primary votes are Liberal 36.9%, Labor 29.8% and Greens 19.9%, in which case it would clearly be Labor that won the seat.
• Redbridge Group has published full results of its poll for Climate 200 in North Sydney which, as noted here yesterday, had Liberal member Trent Zimmerman on 33.3%, independent Kylea Tink on 23.5% and Labor candidate Catherine Renshaw on 17.8%, with 7.5% undecided. The full report has results on a follow-up prompt for the undecided, and much more besides.
Senate news:
• The Australia Institute has Senate voting intention results for the five mainland states, which suggest the Greens are looking good across the board, One Nation might be a show in New South Wales as well as Queensland, the United Australia Party are competitive in Victoria, a third seat for Labor is in play in Western Australia, and Nick Xenophon might be in a tussle with One Nation for the last place in South Australia. With a national sample of 1002 though, there are naturally wide margins of error on these results. The accompanying report also include interesting data on respondents’ levels of understanding of the Senate voting process.
• The Advertiser reports an “internal party polling” – it does not say whose – of the South Australian Senate race has Labor on 34%, Liberal on 23%, the Greens on 12%, Nick Xenophon on 6%, One Nation on 4% and Rex Patrick on 3%. I imagine the most likely outcome of such a result would be two seats each for Labor and Liberal plus one for the Greens and one for Nick Xenophon. The poll had a sample of 644, with field work dates not disclosed.
• A joint sitting of the Western Australian parliament has just confirmed that Ben Small of the Liberal Party will fill his own Senate vacancy, having addressed the dual citizenship issue that forced his resignation. Small has the third position on the Liberal ticket at Saturday’s election.
Non-polling news:
• Sky News has obtained a voicemail message from 2019 in which Dai Le, who is threatening Kristina Keneally’s effort to use Fowler to move from the Senate to the House of Representatives, stated she still had control of the Liberal Party’s Cabramatta branch despite having been suspended from the party after running as an independent mayoral candidate in 2016. Le has been keen to express her independent credentials in a seat where the Liberal Party has little support.
• Samantha Maiden of news.com.au reports Labor focus groups in Bennelong, Deakin and Pearce registered negative reactions to the Liberal Party’s policy of allowing home buyers to make use of their superannuation.
• The count for the Tasmanian Legislative Council seat of Huon has been completed, with the distribution of preferences resulting in a victory for independent candidate Dean Harriss over Labor’s Toby Thorpe at the final count by 11,840 votes (52.55%) to 10,693 (47.45%). Thorpe led on the primary vote, but Liberal preferences flowed to Harriss more strongly than Greens preferences did to Thorpe. This maintains the numbers in the chamber at four Labor, four Liberal and seven independents, although an ex-Labor member has been replaced by one with a conservative pedigree, his father having served in parliament both as an independent and with the Liberal Party.
“I think the days of Whitlam are over, where he swayed so many by sheer dint of argument – charisma, substance writ large.”
Unless you take the position individuals are all significantly stupider, you need a framework beyond dint of arguments and substance.
Abbott Turnbull and Morrison didn’t win by accident, neither did Trump or Johnson, they sold something, built a movement if you like, all the more impressive (in an objective amoral framework) in many ways because they did it without substance and dint of argument.
Corbin tried but couldn’t even get his own team onside, I don’t think there is a Federal Labor leader since Keating if you count his win from nowhere, or Hawke if you don’t, who created a movement with or without substance.
Even McGowan’s massive win / movement could be argue came to him rather than him building it.
(jt1983 says:
Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 7:31 pm
@mark …. come on. This stuff about Scotty the Marketing genius is bad enough, but to strategically angle yourself to crash tackle an 8 year old?)
Scotty is a bulldozer, women, 8 year old kids, he’s currently bulldozing Australia into a back water.
That tackle reminds me of a certain someone…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TakfHE75trg
The Lying Rodent has been deployed in Kooyong…
Did albo/the alp team seem at all concerned about the polling today – to me they seem calm, in control and his npc speech was exactly what he needed going into the next 3 days.
The polls put it about 53/47 – this would give the alp a majority.
The video of ScoMo’s manhandling of the 8 year old does not improve things…
https://twitter.com/elizaednews/status/1526820912745844736?s=21&t=yT86MY9NruoB4l2rPr1y2g
Wouldn’t surprise me if Resolve’s intended effect was a last ditch attempt to sway voters into voting LNP to create a miracle they feel part of.
My grandfather was great mates with senator Ron McCauliffe back in the 70s , we were very strong diehard fans listening to the radio when they played and going to every grand final they appeared in ( my first was 1970) . I remember my grandfather getting the “sausage” in the 70s that a brilliant young player was coming to play for the gladiators – the mighty FVC diehards!! This was Wally Lewis. He still attends old boys nights out at the Grange, valleys now only in the division below the state league but still the greatest Brisbane team in the greatest game of all. Holy Trinity was Bulimba, Valleys and the ALP!!!!!
I recently watched a documentary series about the Hawke-Keating years; Hawke is a statesman, but he wouldn’t have stayed that long without Keating. Keating is a brilliant politician, but was too nakedly ambitious for my liking.
C@tmomma says Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 5:36 pm
What, he has to spend more on gloves, socks and shoes?
Al Pal says Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 6:03 pm
I thought it was pretty good.
Evening all. So with 3 sleeps to go, and some bed-wetting over Resolve and Morgan, I am still quietly confident of a majority ALP win.
Have stocked up for the Saturday night PB Piss Up Club inaugural meeting. I also have a DVD of Keating The Musical to watch Friday night as a precursor to the main event on Saturday.
Looking forward to the commentary on here with my fellow PBers.
Here we go again says Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 4:30 pm
Did Peacock have a mistress? Rumours would suggest otherwise.
Pattern against user @ 7:42pm
“Freya’s probably more the sad and lonely timid type that doesn’t have many friends in life and they have discovered this site and have decided/realised that they can get the attention they desperately crave by doing a bit of trolling on here…”
Wow. It’s a wonder the likes of Freya, mundo and boerwar weren’t bullied off this site long ago.
Upnorth @ #595 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 6:02 pm
My team of choice (West Coast) can’t tackle at all so you’ll get no argument from on that front
“The Lying Rodent has been deployed in Kooyong…”
***
Speaking of Iraq… this despicable individual – Howard – is in part responsible for the murder of up to two and half million innocent civilians as a result of the invasion.
It is a disgrace that he is being paraded around as some kind of hero after what he has done. He should be in prison for war crimes.
Lars Von Trier:
Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 8:01 pm
[‘Assuming Albo wins – and he and Wong are sworn in on May 23 to fly to the Quad Summit on Monday 23 May.
Who is notionally minding the shop for every other portfolio in Australia until Albo’s return from Tokyo?’]
So you’re unaware of whom held all the ministries after the ’72 election? Hint, it was Gough & Lance.
2.5 civilians. All things considered that’s pretty good.
Footage from the Marconi Club in Fowler tonight – Albo being mobbed…
https://twitter.com/tommcilroy/status/1526857537319972864?s=21&t=NnIG7Fo0uMtHcVUHzZ_nLQ
Firefox @ #616 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 8:19 pm
On this matter, I wholeheartedly agree with you. But, I think there were more than two and a half victims, I think you left a few zeroes off.
@ Pattern against user
@Freya Stark has made it pretty clear on numerous occasions that she despises the Morrisson government but believes it will win the election.
So she has enough cognitive stability to put her own political position to one side and call a result she clearly doesn’t wish for.That indicates emotionally she is pretty stable.
Alternatively she might just enjoy a bit of light hearted piss taking – my guess is a bit of both.
I am more concerned for the mental health of the manic optimists on here who lack the stomach to even consider this might be slipping away for Labor.
If come Saturday night she is proven correct, might have to get some of them straight to Psychiatric emergency before they neck themselves given the weight of emotional investment and inflated expectations they have been carrying on their shoulders for weeks now.
That tackle would have ended the career of a Labor member.
The Prime Minister isn’t a bulldozer, he’s an oaf.
Mavis says:
Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 8:20 pm
Lars Von Trier:
Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 8:01 pm
[‘Assuming Albo wins – and he and Wong are sworn in on May 23 to fly to the Quad Summit on Monday 23 May.
Who is notionally minding the shop for every other portfolio in Australia until Albo’s return from Tokyo?’]
So you’re unaware of whom held all the ministries after the ’72 election? Hint, it was Gough & Lance.
___________________________________________
That’s exactly the point Gough and Lance held all the ministries. How can you go overseas and not have a sworn minister in Australia? That should be Marles.
Still confident of 79 on Saturday night. A later call by Antony though – 10:45pm EST.
Steve777 @ #622 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 8:23 pm
It should be the end of smirko – i’m so sick of people’s bias.
“2.5 civilians. All things considered that’s pretty good.”
***
Well I have repeated that same line a zillion times so I guess it was bound to happen sooner or later.
Two and a half million. And no, not good (I know you weren’t saying it was dw).
Voodoo Blues
“I am more concerned for the mental health of the manic optimists on here who lack the stomach to even consider this might be slipping away for Labor.”
I concur.
The loose unit says:
Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 8:24 pm
Steve777 @ #622 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 8:23 pm
That tackle would have ended the career of a Labor member.
The Prime Minister isn’t a bulldozer, he’s an oaf.
It should be the end of smirko – i’m so sick of people’s bias.
____________________________________
Why isn’t he behind bars pending a full police investigation? Tonight?
Prince planet says:
Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 8:16 pm
My grandfather was great mates with senator Ron McCauliffe back in the 70s , we were very strong diehard fans listening to the radio when they played and going to every grand final they appeared in ( my first was 1970) . I remember my grandfather getting the “sausage” in the 70s that a brilliant young player was coming to play for the gladiators – the mighty FVC diehards!! This was Wally Lewis. He still attends old boys nights out at the Grange, valleys now only in the division below the state league but still the greatest Brisbane team in the greatest game of all. Holy Trinity was Bulimba, Valleys and the ALP!!!!!
中华人民共和国
Top yarn cobber and totally agree on your sentiments.
In those days Senator Ron McCauliffe ran the QRL and Lord Mayor Clem Jones rolled the Turf at the Gabba.
WWP, etc:
State of origin died for the same reason the WAFL did – the Eagles and the Crows entering the AFL. Instead of seeing a bunch of AFL-grade players play the Vics once a year, people could see it every fortnight. The entry of Freo and Port Power finished it off – now the biggest game in town is the Western Derby / Showdown.
These days SOO still exists, but it’s the best of the state leagues (WAFL/SANFL/VFL) instead of the best players in the country, so the quality is a lot less. Take Nic Naitanui for example: he spent one year in the WAFL (Swan Districts) and then levelled up to the Eagles. Back in the 80’s, somebody like him would either have stayed in the WAFL, or played for one of the big Melbourne clubs and come home every year for SOO. Just like the WAFL grand final getting 50,000 at Subi oval, those days are gone and they’re not coming back.
ScoMo’s Last-Ditch Election Pitch.
https://youtu.be/hbY0Hb-zm9o
“I am more concerned for the mental health of the manic optimists on here who lack the stomach to even consider this might be slipping away for Labor.”
Honestly, my gut feeling is hung parliament but I also don’t have any mental health investment in the result of an Australian election… It’s fine either way.
I actually don’t think we have had this scenario in living memory – the possibility of a close election result and a key international gathering on the Tuesday after.
I suspect if it is clear Labor has won, the public service heads will be all over the nominated incoming ministers clearing the path for them – irrespective of whether they are ‘sworn in’ or not.
If it’s close – like the 17 days of Oakeshott in 2010 – precedent and protocol dictates that Morrison goes to Tokyo, and takes Wong or equivalent with him.
Commentariat Uprising @ #603 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 8:11 pm
In my younger days (a long time ago) I was a senior soccer ref and I used to love reffing the young u/6 kids. If they made a mistake, you would blow the whistle and give the kid the ball back and show them how to throw in or kick the ball again. At their age it’s more about encouraging and teaching them. In the case of BoJo, if you were a sport and wanted to encourage the child, you would have let him ‘tackle’ you, not barge him over.
@hazza
It’s not “might” be slipping away, it IS slipping away.
Sprocket – if its Albo and Wong going to Tokyo – how can you not have a Minister in Australia? Surely they have to swear in a third – and that should be Marles as the Deputy?
Jude
“I recently watched a documentary series about the Hawke-Keating years”
Was that the Labor In Power doc? Couldn’t help but laugh at the bit about the factional struggle over environmentalism and it cuts to Keating talking about trees in the most apathetic tone of voice possible.
Also great Clarke and Dawe sketch on the vibe of it: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DZYbF4p75CY
hazza4257 @ #627 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 8:26 pm
If the lnp win I’ll walk away with $350 and stage 3 tax cuts/probably more tax cuts in the future – I still want them to lose though.
I don’t have as much emotion in it this time – I want the alp to win, but if they don’t get there then the sun rises tomorrow.
For mine if the lnp do win it means the average australian wants more of the same – if the economy is going to tank I would rather the lnp be there so they can be shown for who they are.
Imagine Albanese spilling over and taking a young boy with him, they’ve been trying to paint Albo as a buffoon, today we saw the real buffoon. 7.30 showed it but moved on quick without comment also showed the Albo gaffe for the 50th time and seemed to dwell on it longer.
”Assuming Albo wins – and he and Wong are sworn in on May 23 to fly to the Quad Summit on Monday 23 May.”
On Monday May 23, Morrison will still be PM whatever the result. The changeover will take some days, typically about 10. Kevin Rudd remained PM for 10 days after his loss on 9/7/2013.
Indeed, there’s a good chance the result won’t be known on May 23 and Scott won’t concede while there’s a minimal chance he could still, possibly with cross bench support, remain PM.
It would be logical for Morrison to go on May 23, bringing along Albanese unless it’s a clear Morrison win. But that would require a degree of grace that Morrison does not possess.
Lars Von Trier:
Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 8:23 pm
[How can you go overseas and not have a sworn minister in Australia?’]
Easy, dear Lars. You get the dear pentecostal GG, as opposed to the other dear GG, to swear in Albanese as the ministry – just like Gough did. It’s a mere technicality. I’m surprised you’d make it an issue.
Pretty simple q – Albo and Wong fly to Tokyo to the Quad Meeting , who is running the country in their absence?
TikTok is on fire.. you won’t see this in the MSM, but lots of young voters will..
This in Bennelong
https://twitter.com/jeromelaxale/status/1526693474380042240?s=21&t=sDEkXsRck9yK-ViMo5Ua_Q
In recent history, when the government has changed at an election, it’s usually taken about a week and a half before the new PM is sworn in. I imagine it would take longer if it’s down to the wire or a hung parliament. If Labor win and that’s clear on Saturday night, Albanese probably won’t become PM until around the end of May or beginning of June.
Mavis – there’s always governmental authority in place when the PM is overseas, ie an Acting PM. Would the Governor- General run the country in his absence?
LVT
Have you heard of this new fangled thing called the telephone?
sprocket_ @ #643 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 8:35 pm
Chefs kiss – there is a difference between the big 2.
I think Albo has made it clear (if he wins) he expects to go to the Quad Mtg as the Prime Minister.
sprocket_ @ #580 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 7:57 pm
Jeezus! They’ve dredged that horrible, horrible Libertarian American transplant economist, Gigi Foster up, obviously to pour shit all over Labor’s Costings and to start the ‘Debt and Deficit’ mantra up again. So that’s one episode of QandA I won’t be watching.