The final Essential Research poll for the campaign has Labor leading by 48% to 46% on the pollster’s “2PP+” measure, in from 49% to 45% a fortnight ago, with the remainder undecided. However, both the Coalition and Labor are steady on the primary vote at 36% and 35%, the change mostly being accounted for by respondent-allocated preferences. For the minor parties, the Greens are down one to 9%, One Nation is up one to 4%, the United Australia Party is down one to 3% and independents are up one to 6%. Leadership ratings are little changed: Scott Morrison is down one on approval to 43% and up one on disapproval to 49%, Anthony Albanese is up one to 42% and steady on 41%, and Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister moves from 40-36 to 40-37.
My reading of the state breakdowns is that the results are likely too strong for the Coalition in Victoria and too weak in New South Wales, at least in relative terms — using previous election flows, Labor leads by about 53-47 in New South Wales and 51-49 in Victoria, respectively compared with 51-49 to the Coalition and around 53.5-46.5 a fortnight ago. The Coalition is credited with a lead of about 52-48 in Queensland, a swing to Labor of over 6%, compared with about 50-50 in the previous poll. Sample sizes here would have been about 500 in New South Wales, 400 in Victoria and 300 in Queensland.
The poll was conducted Wednesday to Tuesday from a sample of 1599. It has made little difference to the BludgerTrack aggregate, since it goes off primary votes which are little changed. The more heavily weighted Newspoll and Ipsos polls that are yet to come stand more chance of moving its needle, which they will want to do in the Coalition’s favour if it is to end up with a two-party preferred reading that I personally would think plausible.
Other polling news:
• The West Australian today had a poll by Utting Research showing independent Kate Chaney leading Liberal member Celia Hammond in Curtin by 52-48 on two-candidate preferred, from primary votes of 38% for Hammond, 32% for Chaney, 13% for Labor, 9% for the Greens and 3% for the United Australia Party. The poll was conducted on Monday from a sample of 514.
• Katherine Murphy of The Guardian reports Labor is “increasingly bullish” about Brisbane and Higgins, and further perceives “opportunity” in Bennelong and Ryan. The report says Labor internal polling has Scott Morrison’s disapproval rating across the four seats at 62%, 65%, 57% and 58% respectively, whereas Anthony Albanese is in the mid-forties in approval and mid-thirties on disapproval.
• Samantha Maiden of news.com.au reports on uComms polls for GetUp! of five seats chosen because of the effects on them of fires and floods. These have Labor member Fiona Phillips leading Liberal challenger Andrew Constance by 57-43 in Gilmore, but Liberal candidate Jerry Nockles leading Labor member Kirsty McBain by 51-49 in Eden-Monaro. Labor’s Peter Cossar is credited with a 55-45 lead over Liberal National Party member Julian Simmonds in Ryan, although his primary vote of 27% is not far clear of the Greens on 22%. Labor member Susan Templeman leads Liberal candidate Sarah Richards by 56-44 in Macquarie, and Nationals member Kevin Hogan leads Labor’s Patrick Deegan by 51-49 in Page, which he won by 9.4% in 2019. I have tended to think this pollster’s results have been flattering to Labor due to a limited weighting frame encompassing only age and gender, a notion disabused here only by the Eden-Monaro result.
• Speaking of which, The Australia Institute has a now dated uComms poll of Higgins from May 2 that had hitherto escaped my notice, showing Liberal member Katie Allen will lose either to Labor by 54-46 or the Greens by 55-45. Using the results of the forced-response follow-up to allocate the initially undecided, the primary votes are Liberal 36.9%, Labor 29.8% and Greens 19.9%, in which case it would clearly be Labor that won the seat.
• Redbridge Group has published full results of its poll for Climate 200 in North Sydney which, as noted here yesterday, had Liberal member Trent Zimmerman on 33.3%, independent Kylea Tink on 23.5% and Labor candidate Catherine Renshaw on 17.8%, with 7.5% undecided. The full report has results on a follow-up prompt for the undecided, and much more besides.
Senate news:
• The Australia Institute has Senate voting intention results for the five mainland states, which suggest the Greens are looking good across the board, One Nation might be a show in New South Wales as well as Queensland, the United Australia Party are competitive in Victoria, a third seat for Labor is in play in Western Australia, and Nick Xenophon might be in a tussle with One Nation for the last place in South Australia. With a national sample of 1002 though, there are naturally wide margins of error on these results. The accompanying report also include interesting data on respondents’ levels of understanding of the Senate voting process.
• The Advertiser reports an “internal party polling” – it does not say whose – of the South Australian Senate race has Labor on 34%, Liberal on 23%, the Greens on 12%, Nick Xenophon on 6%, One Nation on 4% and Rex Patrick on 3%. I imagine the most likely outcome of such a result would be two seats each for Labor and Liberal plus one for the Greens and one for Nick Xenophon. The poll had a sample of 644, with field work dates not disclosed.
• A joint sitting of the Western Australian parliament has just confirmed that Ben Small of the Liberal Party will fill his own Senate vacancy, having addressed the dual citizenship issue that forced his resignation. Small has the third position on the Liberal ticket at Saturday’s election.
Non-polling news:
• Sky News has obtained a voicemail message from 2019 in which Dai Le, who is threatening Kristina Keneally’s effort to use Fowler to move from the Senate to the House of Representatives, stated she still had control of the Liberal Party’s Cabramatta branch despite having been suspended from the party after running as an independent mayoral candidate in 2016. Le has been keen to express her independent credentials in a seat where the Liberal Party has little support.
• Samantha Maiden of news.com.au reports Labor focus groups in Bennelong, Deakin and Pearce registered negative reactions to the Liberal Party’s policy of allowing home buyers to make use of their superannuation.
• The count for the Tasmanian Legislative Council seat of Huon has been completed, with the distribution of preferences resulting in a victory for independent candidate Dean Harriss over Labor’s Toby Thorpe at the final count by 11,840 votes (52.55%) to 10,693 (47.45%). Thorpe led on the primary vote, but Liberal preferences flowed to Harriss more strongly than Greens preferences did to Thorpe. This maintains the numbers in the chamber at four Labor, four Liberal and seven independents, although an ex-Labor member has been replaced by one with a conservative pedigree, his father having served in parliament both as an independent and with the Liberal Party.
Voodoo with 35% voters already having voted as of tonight, most, if earlier polls are correct at about 53/47 to ALP — what percentage do you think the rest need for LNP to win?
@Commentariat Uprising
Keating just talks in that very apathetic voice. About everything. About budget, unions, recession we had to have, Hawke not up to the job anymore, etc.
Loose Unit, I don’t even need to check to know that’s a photoshop. Who ever heard of a Department of Accounts?
Wat Tyler, it has already been discussed and there’d be a special swearing in ceremony to accommodate the QUAD meeting
” Why isn’t he behind bars pending a full police investigation? Tonight?”
Oafishness isn’t illegal.
JenAuthor @ #651 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 8:39 pm
60-65%?
How it actually works.
An example from 2007. A clear win to Labor, the heads of PM&C, Treasury, Finance and Defence were meeting face to face with the nominated incoming ministers in the morning following. For example, the head of Treasury flew to Brisbane and met Swan at his home, to run through the incoming Red brief and start the logistics of transition.
Same with the other key portfolios.
The formalities with the GG are important for legalities, but the affairs of state won’t wait.
A new PM being sworn in the day after polling day would break all the records for federal elections in my lifetime which have seen a change of government. Even Whitlam wasn’t sworn in until the Tuesday after polling day.
C@tmomma says:
Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 7:48 pm
He has form in the attention seeking behaviour during election campaign stakes:
Give Scotty a ball and he turns into his alter ego Bulldozer 2, at least in that soccer game he was in his right age group.
BTR Producer, fellow members of the Poll Bludger Pissup Club – ready for a big night on May 21, beer fridge is stocked, beer belly is ready for some action,
Lynchpin , welcome my friend, only requirements of membership are being of a leftist persuasion and enjoying an alcoholic beverage or two or more
Your confusing the situation sprocket.
The point is not Albo being sworn in on Monday (that’s fine), its that Labor won’t have any minister resident in Australia (whilst Albo and Wong are in Toky0) presumably because they can’t swear in Marles because his position as Deputy is not assured.
@ Up north: valleys now only in the division below the state league but still the greatest Brisbane team in the greatest game of all.
________________
No, that would be the Northern Suburbs Devils; so many glorious achievements including winning six consecutive premierships from 1959 to 1964.
And won last year’s premiership, too, by the way.
JenAuthor @ #655 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 8:12 pm
I stand corrected then. So I assume that Marles would become Deputy PM at the same time and will “mind the store” in Albanese’s absence.
“How it actually works.
An example from 2007. A clear win to Labor, the heads of PM&C, Treasury, Finance and Defence were meeting face to face with the nominated incoming ministers in the morning following. For example, the head of Treasury flew to Brisbane and met Swan at his home, to run through the incoming Red brief and start the logistics of transition.
Same with the other key portfolios.
The formalities with the GG are important for legalities, but the affairs of state won’t wait.”
The otherwise useless GG, can get of his place in the ridiculous medieval institution and swear the PM in at 6 am on Sunday if the election outcome is clear.
Thank you Evan. I am most humbled.
Greens launch $7.8b plan to raise 480,000 flood-affected homes on stumps
IN a last, big campaign push aimed at securing inner-city seats, the Greens will announce a $7.8 billion fund for residents in climate change-affected flood areas to raise their houses up on stumps.
Under the scheme eligible residents would be able to apply for a grant of up to $20,000 to go towards lifting their home above flood levels, with the funding to match contributions from the homeowner.
They will announce the scheme in the seat of Ryan, which was hit by this year’s floods and where LNP MP Julian Simmonds is under pressure.
…
Queensland Greens Senator Larissa Waters said the scheme would help people raise their houses above flood waters.
“People shouldn’t be starting every summer wondering if our homes will survive,” she said.
“This isn’t sustainable and it isn’t fair, and the Greens will take action to make sure that people in Brisbane and other areas prone to extreme weather events are protected from the climate crisis.”
https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/national/federal-election/greens-launch-78b-plan-to-raise-480000-floodaffected-homes-on-stumps/news-story/fe1b0f1949785f47baee9fbef58531e5?amp
LVT
Why does there have to be a minister sworn in Australia?
Thinking that if Albo had crash tackled that kid today, the Murdoch papers and Sky News and commercial TV would have been outraged.
Wat Tyler says:
Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 8:46 pm
JenAuthor @ #655 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 8:12 pm
Wat Tyler, it has already been discussed and there’d be a special swearing in ceremony to accommodate the QUAD meeting
I stand corrected then. So I assume that Marles would become Deputy PM at the same time and will “mind the store” in Albanese’s absence.
___________________________
Exactly – and exactly what has not been confirmed.
Lars Von Trier @ #662 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 8:16 pm
Why’s that?
Lars Von Trier:
Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 8:36 pm
[‘Mavis – there’s always governmental authority in place when the PM is overseas, ie an Acting PM. Would the Governor- General run the country in his absence?’]
He’d probably like to, lifting his Port Kembla antecedents. But it matters not, if Albanes were to have an accident of sorts, it would be dear Richard, until that is, Labor came to its senses.
Evan @ #668 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 8:47 pm
Every single lnp cheer leader is laughing it off – it’s abolute b.s
hazza4257 @ #626 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 8:26 pm
Bravo. Does it make you feel smug and superior now to have said that? 🙄
MikeK says:
Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 8:44 pm
C@tmomma says:
Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 7:48 pm
He has form in the attention seeking behaviour during election campaign stakes:
Give Scotty a ball and he turns into his alter ego Bulldozer 2, at least in that soccer game he was in his right age group.
__________________________
Well emotional age perhaps, fits well with SfM the bully
Some inside knowledge on Scomo’s crash tackle, I used to train at that ground.
The playing surface on the training pitch is synthetic (the turf pitch is reserved for competition). Small rubber pellets mixed through astroturf. It’s not particularly fun to fall on.
…and don’t forget – in the event of a loss, Morrison would need to resign before Albo could be sworn in.
Zeh @ #675 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 8:49 pm
Especially with a big hairy (almost hairless) galoot on top of you.
In Menzies day, the P&O Orient line would take weeks to get to mother England. Communications were fraught and untimely.
Today, there is Zoom and similar real time facilities – it doesn’t matter where the leader is on the planet.
You need to liven up to the world today, Lars.
Lovely memories Upnorth my old man played first grade for valleys in the 50s, an injury finished him off early but he did get to play for Brisbane with the poinsettia guernsey. Shame we aren’t sending the diehards off to the NRL but I’m ok with the dolphins at least they have history and aren’t owned by the Murdochracy. And go Albo!!!!!!
I had such high hopes for Labor’s ad campaign.
It has been shit.
Why?
Why can’t Labor’s people mount a decent ad campaign?
.
No more Morrison.
Really?
Wat Tyler @ #663 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 8:46 pm
Exactly.
There’s nothing stopping Albanese going to the meeting as Leader of the Opposition ( but informally Prime Minister designate) if the numbers are reasonably clear. If it is unclear you’d think he’d actually want to stay in Australia but send a representative. Maybe he’d have to sign any commuique or agreement formally later out of session.
Dr Fumbles Mcstupid @ #669 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 8:49 pm
The bloko vote would be over the moon.
I don’t know the why re Marles.
I know since 1901 there has always been a Minister of the Crown present at all times on Australian soil.
It would be unprecedented for the entire Australian executive (Albo + Wong) to fly off to Tokyo for a few days and leave no executive authority in place in Australia.
My guess is Marles will have to be sworn in for this very reason / OR Albo + Wong go to Tokyo as PM designate – but in this case ScoMo would be entitled to go to Tokyo too which they wouldn’t want.
Loose Unit – of course 65% BUT at what rate? What kind of turnaround in 2PP would put the LNP in Front – as of right now. What spread in LNP’s favour would it need to be?
mundo @ #680 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 8:51 pm
Thank goodness Toby Ralph (former Liberal advertising director), is in advertising and you aren’t. He said on Gruen that Labor’s ad campaign was the better one this campaign because it gently reinforced its message, whereas the Liberal ad was nonsensical as it alluded to a situation with Labor that hasn’t even happened yet. Plus it was childish and annoying. Maybe that’s why you like it?
The blokes might be laughing../
Sprocket, this tackle could be as big as your blue bus series. 🙂
greyhound72@hotmail.com says:
Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 8:51 pm
Lovely memories Upnorth my old man played first grade for valleys in the 50s, an injury finished him off early but he did get to play for Brisbane with the poinsettia guernsey. Shame we aren’t sending the diehards off to the NRL but I’m ok with the dolphins at least they have history and aren’t owned by the Murdochracy. And go Albo!!!!!!
中华人民共和国
Good on ya cobber! Bloody good to hear from you. Yeah I reckon Redcliffe will be a top side. Can’t wait for the Glory years ahead. Cowboys vs Dolphins vs Broncos vs Titans. Reckon we can just about play our own comp again!
Can anyone fill me in why PVO is posting weird cryptic tweets about coffee and arguing with Brittany Higgins?
“Why can’t Labor’s people mount a decent ad campaign?”
***
There’s a hole in your budget, dear Liberals, dear Liberals…
Now why didn’t we think of that, they ask?!? The Liberals are the ones who have been actually doing the dodgy budgets, after all. But somehow Labor finds itself on the receiving end of a really annoyingly catchy ad that they should be using themselves.
@JenAuthor: I think 51-49 LNP gives them the lead for a Minority, probably need the status quo 51.5-48.5 for a Majority, but with so many Teal Independents it’s really a guessing game. LNP could definitely have better then 50% TPP and lose the election, hard to see the opposite being the case.
Good.
When the Labor elders do the review on why Labor lost in 2022 they’ll find the killer Liberal ads and Labor’s lame ads doomed Labor from the start.
They’ll also find that Labors failure to pursue Morrison and Co relentlessly over debt and deficit and HIGHER TAXES was a big big mistake. And really dumb.
The elders will then hand back their membership of the ALP and join a local bowls club. Who seem to have a better idea of what they’re on about.
Or Albanese could sign the Leaders statement as ‘Leader of the Australian Labor Party’. They are not going to get hung up on imaginary protocol if it is clear Labor has won.
Also Morrison is not going to want to embarrass himself if it is clear that he has lost. If it is not clear, he may or may not go but obviously no agreements could be made either way.
Concerning Marles, well Albanese can govern from OS but actually I would be very surprised absent an absolutely huge Labor win for Morrison to accommodate Albanese by resigning on Sunday.
Lars Von Trier says:
Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 8:53 pm
I don’t know the why re Marles.
I know since 1901 there has always been a Minister of the Crown present at all times on Australian soil.
It would be unprecedented for the entire Australian executive (Albo + Wong) to fly off to Tokyo for a few days and leave no executive authority in place in Australia.
My guess is Marles will have to be sworn in for this very reason / OR Albo + Wong go to Tokyo as PM designate – but in this case ScoMo would be entitled to go to Tokyo too which they wouldn’t want.
________________
Well, given the GG is a member of the executive council, there is still an executive presence. Also, unless Albo does a Gough and gets him and Wong sworn in with all portfolios, the outgoing ministers are still commissioned until the formal swearing in of the new Labor ministry. All you need is for the PM to be sworn in and the FM on the day or as soon as confidence can be guaranteed in parl.
mundo says:
Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 8:59 pm
When the Labor elders do the review on why Labor lost in 2022 they’ll find the killer Liberal ads and Labor’s lame ads doomed Labor from the start.
_____________
I probably haven’t seen all the ads but the ones I have seen by Labor were pretty good.
1. The ‘It’s not my job’ with the Hawaii holiday reference.
2. Victoria specific one about lack of spending on Vic infrastructure.
I just hope mundo joins his local bowls club after Labor wins. But then he’d annoy the hell out of them too and be back around here like the bad penny he is.
So… the process would be (assuming an election loss)…
1. Morrison would deliver a letter to the GG resigning his commission as a result of no longer being able to command a majority in House – and recommending Albo be commissioned.
2. There is likely a small core group swearing-in – PM, Treasurer, Deputy PM, Foreign Min… but at that point – Caretaker ends… and therefore all administrative function is invested in those initially sworn-in Ministers.
3. About a week later – once caucus votes for the front-bench and the full Ministry is announced – they’re sworn in and full AAO are released.
….
mundo says:
Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 8:59 pm
When the Labor elders do the review on why Labor lost in 2022 they’ll find the killer Liberal ads and Labor’s lame ads doomed Labor from the start.
They’ll also find that Labors failure to pursue Morrison and Co relentlessly over debt and deficit and HIGHER TAXES was a big big mistake. And really dumb.
The elders will then hand back their membership of the ALP and join a local bowls club. Who seem to have a better idea of what they’re on about.
中华人民共和国
Cobber, Digger, Mate go and have a Bex and a good lie down. Really Cobber you ain’t doing your health any good. I loves you you know matey. Have a break.